Tag Archive for: Southwell racecourse

Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25

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So, here we are, with what is I think will be my last column on Geegeez. After countless episodes of Stat of The Day, Racing Insights and more recently here on Tix Picks, my time is up.

Sadly a combination of having to go to press early on Friday and the possibility of abandonments are forcing my hand a little, but Saturday's racing  is supposed to come from Cork, Sandown Southwell, Wincanton & Wolverhampton, although it's quite possible there'll be no UK jumps racing.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Saturday's pools

Saturday's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...

I don't really 'do' Irish racing and both UK tracks are being inspected after I leave the North to head to Exeter to return my youngest to University, so I'm only faced with a choice of two modest-looking A/W cards on the Tapeta. The Southwell card looks a marginally higher standard than the Wolverhampton one, so let's head there for six races...

Race 1 @ 2.47...This looks like a two-horse race between (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army, both finished third on their last runs of 2024 with the latter having also done so in his previous outing. he also raced on Friday, winning by a length and a half at Lingfield over a mile.

I'll take both (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army here.

Race 2 @ 3.22...Alyara was narrowly beaten at Chelmsford two starts ago and then won a 1m handicap here at Southwell a fortnight ago. The drop in trip is interesting but he should go well again. Coconut Bay had a spell where he finished 222133931 in the spring/summer but hasn't really hit those heights again since a win over this trip at Catterick in August, but is now 2lbs below that winning mark

Inexplicable is a healthy 10 from 70 on tapeta, but he seems to save his best for Wolverhampton where he is 8/41 as opposed to his 1/18 here and he folded tamely at Newcastle on Thursday. Shaka is a bit of an A/W enigma, failing to win any of 16 starts, but has been the runner-up in three of his last seven, including two here at Southwell, of which one was over this course and distance.

Tenyatta has a slightly better A/W record at 1/12, but it's not much to shout about, although he was less than a length behind Alyara here a fortnight ago when 3rd of 12, so could well get involved again.

It's not a good race and should take much winning and I think that (1) Alyara, (8) Tenyatta and possibly (4) Coconut Bay are the ones to be with.

Race 3 @ 4.03...There are only three runners that remotely interest me here, so all three will be going on the bet builder...

(5) Fact Or Fable won at Bath in mid-August and although winless in six runs since, did show some signs of a return to some semblance of form when 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day, beaten by little more than half a length and just a head behind Monsieur Fantaisie (below) who finished third.

(7) Monsieur Fantaisie won here over track and trip and as stated above was a narrowly defeated placer at Wolverhampton just over a week ago. Off the same weights, I suppose the placings would remain unchanged, but there's not much between them.

(10) Tathmeen looks the most likely of the rest of the field to chase the above pair home and this 10 yr old veteran is no stranger to the winners' enclosure, having won 13 times on the A/W and after some indifferent form, is now 2lbs below his last winning mark and could surprise a few in this weak affair.

Race 4 @ 4.35...The one I 'like' most here is probably (1) Line Of Force who has three wins and a runner-up finish from his six starts to date and won here over 6f on his A/W debut last time out. More is expected from him now going handicapping. The biggest danger is likely to come from (2) Art Market who won a couple of handicaps on turf in the summer, one at 6f and one at today's trip. Hasn't raced for over three months and now makes an A/W debut 1lb lower than his last turf run.

Race 5 @ 5.05...Moon Over Miami has only raced twice before winning both times at Class 5 over 1m2f/1m3½f on the Flat. Might need the run though after eight months off and a two-step rise in class for his A/W debut. Old Harrovian was last seen finishing third of fourteen in a decent Class 2 handicap at Kempton on his comeback from a four month break. Since then, the winner has won again and the third placed horse has been a runner-up, so that bodes well here.

Asgard's Captain is 5 from 9 on the A/W over the last year with a runner-up finish to boot. He comes here off a win at Newcastle three weeks ago where he stayed on well and I'm not sure a 2lb rise in weight anchors him just yet. Glen Buck won both his first two races a fortnight apart in Jan/Feb of 2023; both on Tapeta and at trips of 1m and 1m1½f. He then reappeared at Wolverhampton six weeks to finish a very creditable third of thirteen over 1m1½f, defying his 656-day layoff and he'd be entitled to come on for having had that run.

Moon Over Miami is plenty good enough for this on another day, but I've concerns about fitness, class and the A/W debut, so I'll set him aside in favour of (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck

Race 6 @ 5.35...Not for the first time today that my picks almost select themselves, as there are only three I'm interested in.

(1) Just Ten High is 1172301 on the A/W and 1721 here at Southwell. he tackled 6f for the first time in his latest race and duly won won here over course and distance and must be the one to beat off a strong gallop.

(7) Bomb Squad has also won over C&D albeit back in August, but he comes here in good nick having finished 3521 in his last four and 321 in his last three over today's trip, all on tapeta including a win at Wolverhampton last time out.

(8) Laura's Breeze hasn't quite been as successful as the other pair, but she has made the frame in 9 of her 18 A/W starts and has 2 wins and 3 further places from 11 on tapeta. Her recent form reads 2733, so she's clearly in good nick and has won here in the past.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army

Leg 2: (1) Alyara, (4) Coconut Bay and (8) Tenyatta

Leg 3: (5) Fact Or Fable, (7) Monsieur Fantaisie & (10) Tathmeen

Leg 4: (1) Line Of Force & (2) Art Market

Leg 5: (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck

Leg 6: (1) Just Ten High, (7) Bomb Squad & (8) Laura's Breeze

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

And that, as they say, is a wrap. I'd like to thank everyone who has taken their time to read my ramblings over the last thirteen or so years in one guise or another, I have to say it has been a lot of fun.

Good Luck for Saturday, however you play the placepot and it's goodbye from me.

Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25

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Friday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

Again we'll follow the money down to Southwell for six races, starting with...

Race 1 @ 4.30...Sisterandbrother has already won on the Flat and over hurdles, but has yet to get off the mark on the A/W after seven attempts, although his last two visits to Southwell have seen him finish third on both occasions, beaten by around two lengths over similar trips to today. Young Endless has made the frame in 7 of 12 on the A/W, winning three times, Those three wins were all here at Southwell where he is 31211 and he's 2 from 2 over 1m6f here but he has struggled over this shorter trip in the past and hasn't been seen for seven months.

Paradoxical is 121 in his last three starts including a Tapeta win at Wolverhampton and a distance win at Lingfield last time out when sent off as the 11/10 fav on New Year's Eve. Up 5lbs for that win, but he was pretty comfortable there if truth be told. Khangai won over course and distance two months ago and has finished 3312 in four races since, all on Tapeta including a win over this trip at Wolverhampton before a 1.25 length defeat here over 1m6f five days ago. He now drops back in trip, but runs off the same mark and should be involved.

(1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai are my picks here, as Young Endless could well need the run.

Race 2 @ 5.00...Palmar Bay won three of ten on the Flat at Classes 2/3, including finishing third on his last run of the season at Haydock in mid-October. He then went really well on his A/W debut when second of seven just half a length down at Lingfield and now drops in class for a first run on Tapeta. Lattaash comes here off the back of finishing 3rd of 12 in a Class 4 handicap at Newcastle and then winning well in a Novice race at Wolverhampton, both off today's mark of 83. he has made the frame in 5 of 6 starts to date, all on the A/W and I can see that becoming six from seven.

Billy Mill has finished in the first four home in each of his last seven efforts on the A/W over the last year (3113343) and had two good runs at Ascot in July. Wasn't at his best at Goodwood and Sandown in subsequent efforts, but now down in class and away from the grass, could show himself in a better light if he's not rusty following a 16-week break. Perennial is a lightly raced 4yr old with potential and makes just a fifth start today. He finished 153 in three runs on the Flat for Ed Walker in the summer before a 4-month break and a change of yard was followed by am A/W debut three weeks ago. He ran better than 5th of 7 would suggest, as he took a while to get going and possibly found Chelmsford's 6f a little too quick, as many have in the past. he's had the benefit of a run and steps up in trip on a slightly slower surface and could well improve here.

(1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & a chance taken on (8) Perennial taken here.

Race 3 @ 5.30...Coul Angel was slowly away on his debut here over 5f a fortnight ago, but was flying once he got going and managed 4th of 10, beaten by less than a length and a half and missing a place by just a head. He should come on for the run and the extra furlong could be handy for him. Macedonian was a good second of fifteen on debut at Newmarket in August and followed that up with a 4th of 12 at Kempton on A/W debut a month later. Both runs came over today's trip and this one has been gelded during his four-week break.

Rebel's Gamble is an interesting debutant representing the trainer and jockey who won this race last year. He was deemed worthy of a 135,000 Gns price tag as a yearling and his brother Nahaar won 6 of 14 at 6/7f, whilst his half-brother Gleneagle Bay finished 15222 in his five races last year, going down narrowly in his last two valuable races. Stardancer was a modest 6th of 11 on debut at Newmarket in early November, but made an good A/W debut a fortnight ago, when 2nd of 9 over today's course and distance, beaten only by an 8/13 fav. A similar run here puts him right in the mix and he's every right to improve for his recent experience.

I'll take (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer here.

Race 4 @ 6.00...Brightandbeautiful has finished third and fourth in her two A/W starts to date, both over today's 7f trip, including a third over course and distance in mid-November. She probably wants further than this, but she's running well and this looks a poor race. Whizz By is the only runner in the field with a win to their name and she comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of C&D handicap wins here in October/November. She went up 7lbs for her first win and is up another 5lbs, but I think she still has the potential to improve further and should be the one to beat here.

Empowered Queen has gone pretty well in her three handicap starts to date without ripping too many trees up, finishing 454 in 11/12-runner contests over 6/7f on Tapeta. She was beaten by little more than half a length here at Southwell over 6f last time out, staying on, so the move back to 7f could help. Bantz comes from a yard in decent form and with a good track record here and he was a little unlucky last time out, when initially denied a clear run over 6f at Newcastle before being switched out resulting in his heels being clipped a furlong from home effectively ending his race as he was eased down. An extra furlong and a clearer passage could see a different outcome here.

Bantz misses out, though, as I'm going with (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen from this one.

Race 5 @ 6.30...Style Of Life has obvious ability, as demonstrated by her 25122 finishes in September/October, but she has failed to shine in two runs on Tapeta since and needs to bounce back. She has been eased a pound in the ratings, but remains 5lbs higher than her last win, but is now 1lb lower than her Wolverhampton runner-up effort in October. Rapido Girl is 322 from her three A/W runs to date over 6/7f on Tapeta in the last seven weeks and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the 5/2 fav at Newcastle last time out. No reason why she can't/won't place again here.

Bella Kopella hasn't raced over today's trip in any of her last 14 starts over a similar amount of months, but her record on the A/W at this trip reads 212131 and considering she has been consistently outpaced over shorter trips of late, the step back up in trip is both interesting and logical. She should be well prepared as she has been kept quite busy over the last year. Starsong lost her way a little after finishes of 17332 (beaten by a head over C&D in the last of those five) in the first quarter of 2024, but she took advantage of a falling handicap mark to make the frame at Lingfield 12 days ago, beaten by just half a length as a runner-up and was half a length in front of third-placed Ravensbourne who was a 25/1 placer mentioned on this column yesterday.

Style of Life looks the weaker of the four, so I'll go with (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong here.

Race 6 @ 7.00...A poor-looking race to finish on, where only three horses make any appeal to me at all, so my 1-2-3 pretty much picks itself...

Autumn Angel has steadily improved on Tapeta over the last six weeks finishing 4321 with decreasing margins of defeat prior to a near-two length win over today's trip at Wolverhampton four days ago. This run of form means she now carries 5lbs more than the rest of the field, but she's clearly the form horse here.

Bernie The Bear was the runner-up in that race on Monday, staying on strongly and with the weight pull in his favour, he could be the main threat/challenge to Autumn Angel's hopes of doubling up. If not, he's always a viable place prospect after making the frame in 8 of 12 over 6f on the A/W.

Piperstown was third in back to back races (here at Southwell and then at Lingfield) in August/September and won here over 5f two starts ago, but failed to shine on New Year's Day when he never really got going in a Newcastle 5f sprint. The step up in trip might help and he could well bounce back, but I doubt he's beating either of the other two.

Piperstown looks a fair way below the other pair, so I'll just take (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear from this one.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: ((1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai

Leg 2: (1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & (8) Perennial

Leg 3: (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer

Leg 4: (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen

Leg 5: (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong

Leg 6: (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone.
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24

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Tuesday's racing comes from Clonmel, Lingfield, Southwell & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

And despite the larger pot being offered at Newcastle, I'm reminded that most people prefer the NH to the A/W at this time of year, so we're off to Southwell for the following six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.15...Jaramillo won by 12 lengths over hurdles at 2m4f at Sedgefield in September and was a half length runner-up back over the same course and distance last time out off 9lbs higher and if taking to fences should go well. Theformismighty was an Irish PTP winner and a 15 length winner over hurdles at Market Rasen three starts ago. Finished a solid 4th of 14 on chase debut five weeks ago, beaten by less than six lengths and looks a real player down in class.

Yes Day has made the frame in five of eight starts to date, including a 3rd of 8 on chase debut at Warwick four weeks ago, despite coming off a 222 day absence. The trip is no issue, as he actually stays 3m and he should come on for the run. Awaythelad finished 211 over hurdles in December/January last season before a step up in class/weight stopped him progressing in the spring. He took 203 days off and reappeared to make a good chase debut at Lingfield three weeks ago, where he was 3rd of 11, beaten by just five lengths and the two horses from that race (6th & 8th) who have ran again both made the frame next time out.

Kaituna River completes my shortlist for this one and he's a former Irish PTP winner who has finished 6313 in his four hurdles runs to date, so he comes here in good nick for his chase debut. I'm not sure he has what it takes to win this race just yet, but if transferring his form to fences, could well. His jumping seemed sound in his PTP effort.

The two I like best here are (5) Awaythelad and (3) Theformismighty and any of the other three above could quite well make the frame, so I'll take a chance with (7) Kaituna River for some potential value.

Leg 2 @ 12.45...This isn't a particularly strong race as you'll see by the quality of the ones that I expect to fare better than the others!

Neigh Botha's last seven runs started and ended with course and distance wins; over fences last June and over hurdles a week ago with results of 3P343 in between the two. He reverts back to fences off the same mark as last week's hurdles success and a similar run here should be more than plenty. Extraordinary Man is probably next best, despite a shocking 1 from 20 career record. That said, his sole win was over fences at Hereford eleven months after a 156-day absence. This year, he started again at Hereford and was a solid 4th of 12 after 287 days off and a wind op. His last five read 122P4 and he should come on for the run.

Abaya Du Mathan runs for the 89th time and has a reasonable 12.5% strike rate during his career, making the frame in 40 of 88 races (45.5%). he was a course and distance winner back in January, won at Warwick in April and comes here off the back of two fourth placed finishes. He's no spring chicken at the age of 12 but could be involved off the same mark as his last win. Bottom-weight Haafback is interesting after two poor bumpers (9th of 13 and 9th of 10) were followed by only one decent effort over hurdles (P9920) and after finishing last of eleven at Stratford on his fifth attempt, he went back to the shed for six months. He came back at Ludlow as a 2m chaser almost four weeks ago and pretty much made all to win at the first crack and the experience should benefit him.

Of the four, I think I'll omit the old boy Abaya Du Mathan and use (7) Haafback as my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (2) Extraordinary Man.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Berkenshtaaap won a 3m PTP in ireland and was then sold for £45,000 and now makes a yard debut for Olly Murphy, whosr bumper runners have a 21.6% win and 49.4% place strike rate and have 4 wins & 6 places from 21 here at Southwell. Clearisthewater needed three cracks at PTP racing to get off the mark and although not ripping trees up just yet and ran pretty well in a pair of UK bumpers so far. Yard is in good nick and the horse does at least have experience on his side.

Hestina Hill is an interesting debutant for the Skelton yard. He's by Kingston Hill and out of Hestina who won three times over hurdles for this yard and also twice over 1m4f on the Flat. The horse has already been gelded and has had a wind op. Star Artist is a half brother to Urban Artist, a 3-time winner at 1m3f/1m4f and in a couple of bumpers. he ran to a reasonable level on debut at Huntingdon nine months ago, finishing fourth and beaten by less than six lengths and should go well again here.

Of these four, I prefer (1) Berkenshtaaap and (7) Star Artist in equal measures, as will the market probably and I think that whilst Clearisthewater has the ability to outrun a big price (20/1 E/W might not be a bad side bet), (3) Hestina Hill might be a better Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Not a great deal to go off here of course, but I've spilt the field in two to concentrate on this half...

Inishnabro is a half-brother to a pair of winning hurdlers and won a PTP by 10 lengths in April. He didn't get near the winner on his hurdles debut three weeks ago, going down by 12L, but he ran well enough to be second of the twelve runners and the fourth placed horse won here over course and distance a week ago. Jordans Cross won his sole PTP by five lengths in March and only went down by half a length on his debut under Rules when a runner-up in a Chepstow bumper four weeks ago.

Law Of The Sea brings plenty of race experience to the table as a former Class 2 stayer on the Flat, but has yet to impress over hurdles. That said, his second effort (5th of 14) at Chepstow five weeks ago was better than his opening effort at Uttoxeter three weeks earlier and similar improvement gives him a chance of making the frame. Le Fauve is possibly/probably the one to beat here. Yet to win a race, but has finished in the frame on three of four starts over hurdles (3523), all in better races than this ie 3rd on debut in an Aintree Listed race, 5th at Grade 2 (Cheltenham) before a Class 3 second and a solid 3rd of 11 at Chepstow eight weeks ago despite coming off a break of 224 days.

Sun Art ran well enough on debut, finish in midfield of a 12-runner bumper at Worcester just seven weeks ago and followed that up by finishing third of twelve on hurdles debut at Market Rasen almost three weeks ago, a place and 1.5 lengths behind the re-opposing Inishnabro and a short head in front of last week's winner Achille Des Rocs. he's probably held by Inishnabro on that run, but shoud still put a decent effort in.

I could easily take all five, but my preferred approach would be (4) Jordans Cross & (6) Le Fauve against the field with (3) Inishnabro a marginal pick over the other two. As an aside, Inishnabro, Sun Art and Law Of The Sea should all be at very backable E/W odds as I expect the market will be keen on Jordans Cross & Le Fauve.

Leg 5 @ 2.15...If anything, the second division of the above race looks weaker than the first to the extent that I was looking at Ben Pauling's newcomer Bank On Frank as a likely placer based on the form of the field. Sadly, he doesn't run and my shortlist is down to two, possibly three runners...

I suspect this is a two-way battle between the top two on the card Daytime Dreaming and Disguisedlimit. Daytime Dreaming was second on his sole PTP outing nine months ago and made a promising start under Rules when 4th of 10 over hurdles at Uttoxeter just over six weeks ago. That looked a tougher/deeper race than this one and the winner, runner-up, third and fifth from that race have all re-appeared to make the frame since.

Disguisedlimit was a five length winner on his sole PTP effort back in April and finished third of ten over hurdles at Chepstow almost two months ago on his Rules debut. he looked unsettled that day and despite leading until 3 out faded out of contention to finish 44 lengths behind the winner. He'll wear a hood here to help settle him and the runner-up from that race has since won by 29 lengths at Market Rasen.

I'm just going to take this pair, but if you wanted a longshot, then Portcammon might (or might not!) be better than a price higher than 20/1 would suggest. He won a bumper on debut for Willie Mullins in August 2023 and was 4th in another a year later before finishing 7th of 20 on his hurdles debut. All of which seemed reasonable if slow progress, but that was his last run for the Mullins yard and he didn't shine on his debut for new handlers when beaten by 57 lengths at Newbury four weeks ago, so his price will reflect his lack of reliability, but this is a poor race, so who knows?

Leg 6 @ 2.45...Craven Bay is 1121 since moving to his current yard and stepping up to trips beyond 3m. he does carry a 7lb penalty for a win at Kempton eight days ago, but he seemed comfortable when scoring by the best part of four lengths so should be in the mix once more. Space Voyage finished 14111 from June '22 to April '23 and then seemed to labour off higher marks up in class before a drop to a rating of 117 saw her win by a neck at Perth in April. She was then 5th of 14 at Aintree before a six month break. Her return just over three weeks ago was a 7.5 length defeat in mid-field of a 12-runner Wincanton contest, but she is now back on her last winning mark.

Toonagh Warrior is a consistent placer over hurdles, making the frame in 6 of 10 starts, including last time out, when beaten here at Southwell over a trip half a mile shorter than today. He's never been asked to go beyond 2m4½f but always gives it his all, rarely runs a bad race and finished 3212 in the last quarter of 2023, so goes well at this time of year. Form horse Mr Hope Street is another tackling 3m+ for the first time, but his form over 2m4f/2m5f in his last three outings reads 112 and was only denied a hat-trick at Carlisle last time out by half a length as he came back from a five month break. Those last three runs were much better than his 2m/2m1f form (457508) and he may well be that another step up in trip is the way forward.

Tzarmix completes my shortlist today and he's one of those consistent but not quite there types. I don't think he's that far away from putting some good runs together and he did win and place at 2m4f/2m5½f in the spring of 2023 before seeming to lose his way in handicaps off marks around 115/116, but he did go well last time out after dropping to a mark of 107 and was a solid 3rd of 11 at Wetherby seven weeks ago. More improvement is needed off that same mark here, but he does get weight from most of the field.

And I think I'll have (1) Craven Bay & (6) Mr Hope Street as my two main picks from this one with with consistent perma-placer (3) Toonagh Warrior the backup plan.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (5) Awaythelad, (3) Theformismighty & (7) Kaituna River

Leg 2: (1) Neigh Botha. (2) Extraordinary Man & (7) Haafback

Leg 3: (1) Berkenshtaaap, (7) Star Artist & (3) Hestina Hill

Leg 4: (4) Jordans Cross, (6) Le Fauve & (3) Inishnabro

Leg 5: (2) Daytime Dreaming & (3) Disguisedlimit

Leg 6: (1) Craven Bay, (6) Mr Hope Street & (3) Toonagh Warrior

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Tuesday 26/11/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Sedgefield, Southwell and Tramore. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sedgefield...

...and as I want to avoid the maiden bumper in the last at Sedgefield, I'm going to tackle the first six races on the Southwell card, where the going is said to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Smurfette has a win and two places from her last three starts and also looked like she'd more running left in her when third over 2m6f last time out. Northern Reel's yard, jockey and trainer/jockey combo have all made the frame in more than half of their races over the last fortnight...

...and the horse herself was a ready 13 lengths winner at Leicester last week. One other to consider would be Eightytwo Team who has a win and a place from two efforts over course and distance and has been in consistently decent nick for some time.

That said, I don't think she's at the level of the other two, so I'll stick with (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel here.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...Great Samourai was disappointing last time out, but had finished 242221 in his previous six starts, including a pair of silvers here at Southwell and a win at Huntingdon and could well be involved again up in trip. Imperial Bede drops in class after finishing third at Wetherby at the start of the month and is now 6lbs lower than when he won by 13 lengths over C&D back in February.

Duo D'Enfer is getting on a bit now at 11 and although his last three efforts haven't been great, he did finish third this time last year at the start of a run of results reading 3131, whereas Jasmin De Grugy is the clear form horse in this pack, having won each of his last three starts over hurdles. he's had six months rest ahead of his chasing debut and if transferring his hurdles form to the larger obstacles would be the one to beat here.

Onewayortother has finished third in both starts over fences so far over a trip of 2m½f that has seemed too sharp for him, so he could improve for the extra half mile or so here, whilst You Say Nothing is dangerously weighted off a mark of 96, some 12lbs lower than his last winning mark from may 2023, but that does also reflect his poor recent form.

This half-dozen form my shortlist from which my 1-2-3 would be (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and (9) Onewayortother

Imperial Bede was withdrawn whilst I was still compiling the column, so I'll take (2) Great Samourai as the replacement

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Lexie's Moon won nicely at Stratford just over five weeks ago for a second win in four, both were on testing ground so stamina shouldn't be an issue as she steps up in trip. Broughshane backed up a comfortable win at Fontwell in October by finishing as runner-up over 3m at Ffos Las just over a fortnight ago when bumping into one winning for the fourth time in eight starts.

Asian Star has just five races under her belt with finishes of 312 over hurdles with her win coming here over 2m. An opening mark of 106 isn't a disaster, but she might struggle with the step up in trip and my shortlist is completed by the one I'd expect to win : Solar System. He's 31531 in handicap hurdles and is unpenalised for winning at Warwick six days ago.

I'm probably too well aligned with the market here, but it has to be (5) Solar System and (2) Broughshane for me with (3) Asian Star as Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Achille Des Rocs made the frame in 3 of 5 PTP races and wasn't disgraced when a 13 lengths 4th of 12 at Market Rasen 12 days ago. Probably wants further, though. Kap de Triomphe's two UK efforts haven't really caught the eye, but he did win on bumper debut at Naas in February and this isn't the toughest race he'll ever have.

King Uklanda's sole run to date saw him land a bumper at Huntingdon back in May, after which he was sold for £17k, whilst Lawrenny has had three start in bumpers, progressing in each and he followed up a runner-up finish at Sedgefield in January by winning at Newcastle last time out, although that was nearly nine months ago.

The last one that interests me is Sergeant Fury who was beaten by less than two lengths in a Class 2 bumper at Wincanton earlier this month, having won on his sole PTP appearance.

This is one of those races where you could take six darts at nine runners and still miss the frame, but I'd go with (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs as my trio against the field, although I wouldn't be massively surprised if Kap de Triomphe ran better than a 28/1 (or bigger) ticket might suggest.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...This looks a two-way fight between (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola. The former was definitely going the right way last season, finishing third in back to back races in November/December, but a fall at Sandown in January seemed to upset her rhythm and she could only manage sixth in two subsequent runs. She's better than that and you can be sure that Team Skelton will have schooled her well in her 220-day break.

Rockola, however, was in action just five weeks ago, finishing fourth here at Southwell after an absence of more than six month. She should kick on for that run and had been a runner-up on her last run of the previous season, from which the third-placed horse is 2 from 2.. She looks reasonably treated off an opening mark of 91 and like Elle Est Beau above, she takes a drop in class here.

(1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola look the standouts for me and with An Cailin Ciuin being withdrawn whilst I was typing, I'll just take this pair.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The withdrawal of likely favourite Early Morning Dew could open the door for top-weight Neigh Botha, who has actually been plying his trade in Class 4 chases of late finishing 13P343 in that sphere since his last effort over hurdles. That chase win was over today's track and trip and his mark is 3lbs lower than his last chase outing and the drop in class should help.

Gainsbourg returns to hurdling for his handicap debut at this code, having been racing on the Flat/AW for over a year. he has a win and a runner-up finish on the Flat from his last five outings, so should be sharp between the flights, suggesting a clear round puts in the mix.

The others that appeal to me are Window Of Time and Runaway Train with the former the pick of the two. Handicap debutant Window of Time has only raced seven times (1 x AW, 2 x Flat & 4 x hrds), but has finished 232 in her last three efforts over hurdles. Rated joint third best in the field says she's in with a shout here, but as the sole 3yo in the race is afforded a huge 16lbs weight allowance here, effectively making her bottom weight and that could be decisive here.

Runaway Train's bare form isn't much to write home about, but I'm scratching around for a back-up pick and he has shown some promise in the past. His yard are in good nick (24 from 80 = 30% SR over the last month) and have a decent record at this venue...

His jockey has 15 wins and 16 places from his 68 rides over the last year, which isn't bad for a 5lb claimer whose allowance further lowers what was a very fair-looking opening mark of 89. This might well be the poorest race this horse has faced so far and could well be the kickstart he needs, so (5) Runaway Train becomes my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (14) Window Of Time

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel

Leg 2: (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and ,  (9) Onewayortother and (2) Great Samourai

Leg 3: (5) Solar System, (2) Broughshane and (3) Asian Star

Leg 4: (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs

Leg 5: (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola

Leg 6: (1) Neigh Botha, (14) Window Of Time and (5) Runaway Train

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 21/11/24

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OK, guys, I'm back in the hotseat upon my return from a brief trip abroad and hopefully I can continue the fine form shown by Matt here in my absence. Thursday's UK action is scheduled for Lingfield, Southwell, Warwick, Wincanton & Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

And as it's likely to be a tough first day at the helm, I might as well aim for the big one and tackle these six races on Southwell's standard going tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...Anthropologist and Fernando both won last time out, both are only up 4lbs for their wins and the former also takes a drop in class here. Elsewhere both Montbeliarde and Queen of Good News have been runners-up in two of their last three starts but the former is up in class here, whilst the latter drops three classes.

Anthropologist is the one most likely to lead, but there's no out and out front runner here, which does give a chance to those who might otherwise have been left behind, whilst with low draws preferred over this track and trip, that's another tick for Anthropologist from stall 2 of 9.

He won't be the market's choice here, but Anthropologist ticks most boxes for me today and I'll take him along with fellow LTO winner Fernando and triple-grade class dropper Queen of Good News in the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...Waiting All Night looks like a potential front-runner here and if he brings his Newmarket summer form to the table, he has a great chance of giving his yard more success at a track where they've had 7 winners and 4 placers from 20 over the last year. Local Music has only failed to make the frame twice in her nine starts over the past year with three wins and three runner-up finishes.

Rogue Encore comes here on a hat-trick after back to back 1m wins at Newcastle and is a big danger despite a 6lb penalty, as is Helm Rock if running like he did at Chelmsford last time out. He was only beaten by head after being denied a clear run and the one horse from that race to have run again went on to win at Wolverhampton five days ago.

And whilst I do like the look of Waiting All Night, it's (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock for me here.

Rogue Encore was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece, so (1) Waiting All Night takes his place on the tickets.

Leg 3 @ 5.30...Al Rayyan blew the start at Kempton on debut six weeks ago but ran on really well to finish fourth and if coming on for the run and getting away more smoothly, should be in the mix here today for a yard with 17 wins and 16 places from 58 over the last month and a course record of 9 wins and 6 places from 30 over the last five years. Cy Twombly has run to a reasonable level in two starts so far and could well be involved again here; his trainer/jockey have a good record together at this venue.

The Gosden newcomer Gamrai is interesting, his dam was a winner at 1m2f and he's related to 1m winner Aljazzi and a half-brother to Majestic Noor and the versatile triple-code winner Liverpool Knight. The yard is in great form, especially with today's jockey on the saddle and this one could well win on debut. Debutants Wolfpack and Atlantic Sunset are also of interest, but I'm playing it relatively safe here with (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...The second division of the race above looks a much weaker affair with only Pride of Donegal making much appeal from the seven runners to have already raced. He was only beaten by three lengths over a mile on debut at Newcastle a fortnight ago defying odds of 28/1 and should come on for the run, whilst it is hoped that Hallelujah U will also be able to build upon his 5th of 11 (3.5 lengths) run here over 7f a month ago. He didn't get a clear run that day but finished stronger so might appreciate the extra furlong here for a yard with a 28% win strike rate over the last month and 4 winners plus 3 placers from his last 15 Southwell A/W runners.

All of which might well be blown out of the water by another newcomer from the Gosden yard, the Lope De Vega colt Written For You. He is a half-brother to several winners including Glorious Journey who won eight times between 6f and 1m including three Group 2 races, 1m winner Queen For You and 2-y-o 7f/1m winner Love Is You.

So, I'll take (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You for this one.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...Top-weight Artistic Star drops back into handicap company after five Class 1 races and if fit to go first time up after a seven-month break, could well have been underestimated by the assessor, even if 106 isn't a mark to be taken lightly and we've already mentioned the 30-day and course form of his trainer Ralph Beckett earlier. Max Mayhem won a Class 2 handicap on his last A/W outing just over a year ago and comes here off the back of a two length defeat in a £52k handicap at Goodwood.

Course and distance winner Andaleep was a three-quarter length runner-up at Kempton seventeen ago in a 14-runner field and that came of the back of an excellent run at 66/1 to finish 5th of 31 in the Cambridgeshire at the end of September, so this horse clearly has ability and isn't afraid of company, but the one to beat here has to be Champagne Prince, who is three from three on the A/W and won here over course and distance last time out and shouldn't be anchored by a 5lb rise.

Dark Moon Rising is another to consider, as he's better than his LTO 21st of 23 at Doncaster might suggest, as he'd finished 233 with small margins of defeat in his previous three runs, but I'm overlooking him in favour of (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...The early morning market says it's a three horse race from the top of the card and I'd tend to agree that this should be between Paddy's Day, Strong Johnson & Dashing Harry and I've got very little between them in my head.

Paddy's Day drops in class after finishes of 4223 and not beaten by much in any of them, he ruins of the same mark as his LTO C&D third of nine and with his jockey taking 5lbs off, he should be on the premises once more.

Strong Johnson was going well at Wolverhampton last week, leading at the halfway point before his reins snapped and having been passed by a couple inside the final furlong, he was eased down with no real hope of being ridden out. That said, he did make all to at Newcastle two starts ago and a similar run might well be enough here.

Dashing Harry probably just about shades it here, though as he was only denied by a short head (headed on the line) over course and distance three days ago and goes again off the same mark. He was a winner at Kempton three starts ago and drops in class today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Queen of Good News, (4) Anthropologist & (5) Fernando

Leg 2: (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock & (1) Waiting All Night (late sub)

Leg 3: (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai

Leg 4: (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You

Leg 5: (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince

Leg 6: (1) Paddy's Day, (2) Strong Johnson & (3) Dashing Harry

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Tuesday 08/10/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Huntingdon, Leicester & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with the biggest pot to be found at Southwell, we'll head there for our six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.20, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Ifonlytheycudtalk was a winner a fortnight ago at Beverley and has been in the frame in four of his last six. Suanni and Glamorous Joy both won three starts ago with the former a runner-up last time out, whilst despite being a 12-race maiden, Marcus has made the frame in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven. Havechatma was a winner here over 6f last December and The Grey Lass is a former course and distance winner from four starts ago off just 2lbs higher.

Instant Expert also suggests that Suanni and Marcus could go well here and also puts Mr Funky Monkey into the picture...

whilst over a course and distance that suits those willing to get on with things...

...only Iftheycudtalk, Suanni, Northern Prince and Havchatma have an average pace score of 2.75 or higher...

...and I'll take three of those four, Northern Prince being the unlucky one and I'm still wary of Marcus based on the above.

(2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk are my picks here.

Leg 2 @ 4.55, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Of those with racecourse experience, Vibrato and All Ways Glamorous seem better options than Bubbles Up and Kohana Girl.

Vibrato might need the run after 194 days off, but drops in class after being a runner-up here over a mile back in March, half a length behind Suspicion who has also yet to run again. The third placed horse that day, Devoirs Choice, has actually won his last three outings, all at Class 4 and off marks of 76, 78 & 80, so that's promising for Vibrato who also makes a yard debut for Jennie Candlish, who does well with new recruits...

All Ways Glamorous was only 4th of 7 on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton recently, but had finished as runner-up in three on the bounce over today's trip on good to soft, good and good to firm ground, so he's certainly adaptable.

Of the two debutants, I'm more drawn to Rebel Star, who is a half-sister to Angle Land who had 7 wins and 15 places from 49 runs over 5f, including a course and distance win here at Southwell.

Safety first here, I'll take all three : (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kristal Klear is the klear (sorry!) pick on form having finished 121 in her last three outings. She was beaten by a head on good to soft ground at Haydock in between 7f tapeta wins here over course and distance and Wolverhampton last time out. She's up 5lbs for that latest 4 lengths success, but today's jockey takes those 5lbs off, so she's the one to beat for me.

Hardman was a disappointing 8th of 12 at Beverley last time out, but had won his previous two. Hostelry seems to be there or thereabouts without winning of late and this is a poorer race than she has been contesting as she drops in class, whilst 12-race maiden Jalaybee has made the frame in each of his last two starts. Back from Dubai is the sole course and distance winner, but doesn't show well on Instant Expert. Mind you, only Kristal Klear does!

She's also the likely front runner here in a race that seems to lack any real pace...

...so (1) Kristal Klear is a firm pick here. Matt (and others) braver than me would make her a banker here, but I'm prone to err on the side of caution and I'll also take (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman here.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Amaysmont was a winner at Wolverhampton eight days ago, scoring for the third time in five starts since a pair of runner-up finishes in April and May, so he's clearly going well. Mykonos St John also won on that card at Wolverhampton last time out and is two from five, but lacks consistency. Of the others, only Rainbow Mirage made the frame on their last run. Kodebreaker has been placed in two of his last three and has two wins and those two places from his last six handicap outings and is also the only previous course and distance winner in the race, albeit from March 2023!

The top of the pace rating brings Cryptos Dream into play along with First Dynasty (winless in 12, though) and Amayretto who gets a 3lbs weight for age allowance and is down in weight despite only being beaten by 1.5 lengths over this course and distance last time out.

She's also on my six-runner Instant Expert shortlist...

I can't ignore the obvious claims of (1) Amaysmont and based on pace/IE, I'm also taking (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto here

Leg 5 @ 6.30, a 6-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

This looks like a 'straightforward two-horse race' between triple runner-up (6) Shah who benefits from a higher draw...

... and (1) Jonquil, the only previous winner in the race, having scored over this trip on debut at Sandown and with both of these runners dropping in class, I'm just taking (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah from this one and moving on to our finale...

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f

And we end with another small field where Different Drum sets the standard on form having finished third here over 1m4f five weeks ago prior to an LTO win over today's trip on the tapeta at Newcastle three weeks ago. Grey Nyle was a runner-up beaten by just a head over that same Newcastle track/trip almost four weeks ago and has to be considered and this pair are both still 3 yr olds, so get a whopping 9lbs advantage over their rivals, from whom Scylla has also won over today's trip albeit on good to firm ground at Lingfield in late July.

There's not much to be gleaned from Instant Expert, pace or draw here, but Scylla's yard have a useful recent place record at this venue...

..so I'll add (1) Scylla to the previously highlighted (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle for leg 6.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk & (10) Marcus

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3: (1) Kristal Klear, (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman

Leg 4: (1) Amaysmont, (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto

Leg 5: (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah

Leg 6: (1) Scylla, (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, good luck!

Chris

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/08/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.55 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 5.05 Navan
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 7.12 Southwell

...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...

...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.

Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.

The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...

Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...

It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.

It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...

...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...

...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...

...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.

Summary

Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.

Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.

A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...

...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/06/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Con Te Partiro of obvious immediate interest. As usual we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.03 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

Class 4 racing is as good as it gets and with one of our shortlist horses running in one of our free races, I'm going to take a quick look at the 5.20 Southwell, where Lipa K will take on just five rivals in a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5f (after a 138yd rail movement) on good ground...

ELHAM VALLEY has made the frame in both starts (both here at Southwell) since moving yards and was only beaten by a head last time out just three weeks ago, but hasn't won a race beyond 2m2½f, so this might stretch him.

BELVEDERE BLAST has won over 2m4½f in the past, but looked decidedly rusty when a further three places and over 20 lengths behind Elham Valley's runner-up run here three weeks ago. In his defence, he hadn't raced for seven months and dis win three on the bounce in the first 17 days of June last year after a five-month break

COPPER BEACH hasn't been seen since a 17 length defeat last November at Wetherby and has won just once in fourteen career starts, but that was at 2m4f, which is a positive. Had has a wind op during the lay-off, but other make more appeal.

THE BIG LENSE has struggled for consistency over the last year, either running well or failing to finish (1P3F2) Was only beaten by a head over today's course and distance four weeks ago, though, when headed late on by the re-opposing Pozo Emery and this pair should be closely matched again.

LIPA K comes here on a hat-trick after winning both his efforts over fences, but whilst he runs off the same mark (110) as his last chase win a week ago, that's 4lbs higher than his last hurdles mark and despite winning back to back races over hurdles in March/May 2023, his hurdles form since then reads 535F.

POZO EMERY finished 1122 in four starts for Paul Nicholls during the 20/21 season, but his form for Laura Morgan prior to a course and distance win (beating The Big Lense) read PP3243, so he's not a shoo-in to confirm the placings from that win and is up 3lbs here.

Instant Expert says...

...that most of these have struggled to win Class 4 hurdle races with Pozo Emery the pick of the pack on the above data. The Big Lense looks particularly weak on win form and the data for Lipa K serves to remind us that Instant Expert and The Shortlist are two different reports even if they look similar! Lipa K's figures look better when you look at all NH races, as he's just gone 2 from 2 over fences.

If we then look at the place stats for those races above...

...Pozo Emery still stands out as the one most likely to relish the conditions, whilst most of the runners look half-backable now. Lipa K, however, has a dismal Class 4 hurdling record at 831535F and is 7lbs higher than his last win over these obstacles. He's also highly likely to send much of the race towards the back of the field with The Big Lense whilst the pace will probably come from Pozo Emery and/or Elham Valley if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

...and our pace analyser suggests that horses who lead here tend to get swallowed up by the chasing pack with all other running styles faring better...

Summary

Having won his last two, I imagined Lipa K would be popular and indeed he is; bet365 have him as the 5/4 fav at 4.30pm on Monday, but that doesn't excite me if I'm honest. He's 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win, his two wins were over fences and his recent hurdling form has been patchy plus he has a poor record at Class 4. He's certainly got momentum, but 5/4 represents no value to me.

With that in mind, I'm more interested in the closely-matched The Big Lense and Pozo Emery and with the latter up 3lbs and seemingly less suited by the pace profiling, The Big Lense would be my marginal preference of the two and their closeness is mirrored by bet365 offering 5/1 about each of them.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/04/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with just one qualifier, but thankfully we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.30 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hexham
  • 5.15 Thirsk
  • 7.30 Southwell

...where Cool Party's race is the highest rated of the four available. The race itself is the 6.00 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

COOL PARTY hasn't been seen since going down by 10 lengths here on 15th December and hasn't won a race since the end of September when scoring at Haydock over today's trip after an eleven-month barren run. Might need the run here, but does drop down a class.

ISLE OF SARK just doesn't win races. He scored on his debut at Dundalk in November 2020, but is now 1 from 19! He's not a lost cause, mind; he has made the frame in each of his last four and five of his last six and has three runner-up finishes from his last four where he has been beaten by a neck, a short-head and a neck last time out. Off the same mark here, he should be in the mix again.

ROBUSTO has four wins and four places from his nine outings over the last year, but hasn't raced for six months now. Has moved from Sir Mark Prescott's yard in that time and now steps up a class for his yard debut for Eve Johnson Houghton and is possibly the one to beat here.

DREAMS FLED AWAY also makes a yard debut here, having moved to be trained by Barry Brennan after a 12-race career in Ireland for Shane Crawley. He was a decent third of fourteen on his last race for Shane, twenty-five days ago beaten by just three parts of a length and has been in decent nick with a two wins and two places from his last five, all at Dundalk.

MARBUZET is another who hasn't been seen for over six months and now re-appears in first-time cheekpieces. He was in good form before his break, making the frame in nine consecutive races, winning twice. He's 3lbs higher than his last run, so might enjoy a shorter trip here.

ADDOSH hasn't been seen on a racecourse since the end of November when pulled up in a handicap hurdle at Hereford in what was an eighth successive defeat over hurdles since his last A/W outing, when last of seven here beaten by twelve lengths in January 2023. His Flat/AW record is pretty poor with just one win from 13 and his A/W form reads 24067. Probably best avoided.

The win element of Instant Expert doesn't tell us too much...

...but Isle of Sark's knack of running well but just finding one (or two) just a bit too good for him is well documented in these place stats...

...where he looks almost nailed-on to (a) lose but (b) make the frame again! He's drawn fairly centrally here, but over 1m6f, the draw shouldn't really make a huge difference. That might be a good thing, because we don't have much data from similar past races, as there aren't many previous small field 1m6f contests on the tapeta here, but this is what we do have...

I certainly wouldn't lean too heavily on that piece of information alone, but if asked to draw anything from it, I'd say that I'd want to be in stalls 2 to 4. What I can tell you from those races above, is that horses who've attempted to make all have really struggled to get home ahead of the pack...

...with the stalking prominent horse(s) faring much better. This is probably not great news for Cool Party, who looks like he'll be the one setting the fractions here, if 'recent' races are anything to go by for this field...

Summary

We've worked with limited data and a small field here and often it' a case of going with who you think is the best runner. Isle of Sark certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn, but he gets no respite from the assessor and always manages to get beaten! And I suspect that'll be the case here again today with Robusto the one to beat for me.

Isle of Sark will be pretty short in the market, so if you wanted an E/W option, you could look at Marbzuet, another consistent placer.

The market looked like this at 6.20pm...

...so good luck!

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.55 Wetherby
  • 5.50 Clonmel
  • 7.30 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 8.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Glamorous Express has won three of his last seven and comes here on a hat-trick after wins at both Kempton and Newcastle this month. Westmorian and Digital both had top three finishes last time around and were winners two and three races ago respectively, whilst One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five runs. Conversely High Velocity, Temple Bruer and Em Jay Kay are winless in 7, 8 and 11 races respectively.

Temple Bruer's bid to break his losing run might be helped by dropping down a class and sole mare in the race, Miss Bella Brand is down two levels today. hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express moves the opposite way and steps up two classes, whilst Westmorian, Dandy's Derriere and out-of-form bottom-weight Em Jay Kay are all up one class.

Six of the fiedl have raced in the last three weeks, but Em Jay Kay has been away for two months and Miss Bella Brand for three months. It's 19 weeks since Digital last raced, during which time he has moved from Karl Burke to Ruth Carr and the longest lay off of all is the near five month absence of out-of-form Temple Bruer.

All ten runners have won at least once over today's trip and only three (Temple Bruer, Glamorous Express and Dandy's Derriere are yet to land a race here at Southwell. Admittedly that's off just 1, 0 and 3 previous visits respectively. Of the seven former Southwell winners, only three (Mountain Warrior, Miss Bella Brand and Em Jay Kay) have scored over course and distance at the same time and our two-year Instant Expert form overview looks like this...

...where Mountain Warrior looks the best suited from recent races. We're a bit shy on Class 4 wins across the board (4 from 30), if truth be told with Miss Bella Brand struggling the most at this grade. Overall Em Jay Kay looks the most vulnerable at 2 from 14 on standard going and 1 from 9 at 6f and that's from a career record of just 2 wins from 20, all on the A/W. He's still 2lbs higher than his last win, despite 11 consecutive defeats and I suspect that will become 12 today. He has however made the frame in half of his six course appearances including one win according to the place data from that above graphic...

In almost 60 similar races since the switch to tapeta here at Southwell, horses drawn higher have seemed to have been at a disadvantage, with those drawn beyond stall bearing the brunt as I suppose you'd expect with that left-hand turn...

That, of course doesn't mean that hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express can't win from stall 9, but his race tactics are going to have to be spot on from so wide out and in those 50-odd races above, it has paid to get out quickly...

and the more prominent a horse has raced, the better the chances of winning have been with hold-up horses faring really badly. So, i suppose the last thing you'd want is a highly-drawn hold-up horses, unless he was a really fast finisher who didn't mind a bit of traffic. The pace/draw heat map is pretty clear about what has and hasn't worked in those races above...

The fact that high drawn leaders have been the most successful would appear to flip the draw stats around and what that says to me is that the pace of the race holds greater value than the draw without saying we should ignore the draw of course. So, we now need to look at how this field normally races to make an informed decision about how we think they might run here...

...and it looks like Digital might well set the pace ahead of One More Dream with hat-trick seeking Glamorous Express and Temple Bruer closer to the rear of the field. If we re-arrange that pace chart into draw order, we get this...

Summary

Glamorous Express will be popular after two wins already this month, but he's up two classes, carries a penalty and seems badly suited by the pace/draw stats. Westmorian, Digital and One More Dream also come here in decent form. Digital and One More Dream both scored well on the place aspect of Instant Expert, but it was top-weight Mountain Warrior who was the IE pick of the pack.

The pace/draw stats pointed to Digital, Miss Bella Brand, Dandy's Derriere, One More Dream, Westmorian and Mountain Warrior having the best chances and on the basis of who's ticking the most boxes it's the names of Digital and One More Dream who feature most followed by Mountain Warrior and Westmorian.

I'd expect One More Dream to fare better here than Digital, so he'd be my pick today.

I looked at he market at 4pm, but no prices were available and having looked at a few tissues, I expected the market to look something like...

Westmorian 10/3-7/2
Glamorous Express 4/1-9/2
One More Dream 5/1
Mountain Warrior 17/2
Dandys Derriere 19/2
Digital 19/2
Temple Bruer 12/1
Em Jay Kay 16/1
Miss Bella Brand 17/1
High Velocity 18/1

...and I was going to suggest One More Dream at 5's as my pick with E/W options from Mountain Warrior and Digital with Westmorian being too short.

However, Bet365 went 'live' just before I did and here are their prices as of 4.10pm...

...which are pretty close to the estimates, so I stick with my decision(s).

Racing Insights, Monday 18/03/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.40 Curragh
  • 4.18 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Newcastle

Monday's racing is generally pretty poor and the Monday following the Cheltenham Festival is usually even worse and such is the case again this year, I'm afraid. We've a card or rider restricted races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and 13 NH races at Fontwell and Southwell, the highest-rated of which are half a dozen at Class 4. Of those six races, the only one with more than six runners is a 10-runner maiden where the field only have 34 previous races between them.

So, I'll be honest with you here, I probably won't be having a bet on any of Monday's racing, but for the sake of the column, I'm going to look at the 4.30 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on soft ground over what is essentially 2m 5.25f after a rail movement of 188 yards...

My initial thoughts are that the bottom two on the card, Quian & Over Milk Wood would be up against it here, but that you could probably make a case for any of the other four...

POZO EMERY has finished in the first three home in all of his five starts over hurdles, but has only won once (2m3½f) and comes here on the back of a 16 length defeat as a runner-up at Sandown last time out. Up in trip today and tries the tongue tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time.

FLYING FORTUNE makes a handicap debut in his fourth start over hurdles having finished 3411 in four bumpers in the first half of 2023. Her best run over hurdles was his second effort when a 3 length runner-up at Newton Abbot in October, but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ffos Las last time out. That was over four months ago, so she's a layoff to contend with too.

HOSTILE HOTELIER is up in class here and wears a tongue tie for the first time and comes here off the back of a pair of runner-up finishes, albeit in defeats of 7.5 lengths over hurdles and by 12 lengths over fences last time out. He did win on his handicap hurdle debut last November and now races at just 4lbs higher than that win.

JUBILEE GOLD has only raced five times so far, but has a win and two places from the three races he has completed and was only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield on soft ground last time out. The winner of that race won again next time out and the third placed horse has finished second and first in his two run since. This horse is up in class here, though.

QUIAN won two starts ago at Taunton, but that run was the exception to how he normally fares, having lost his previous six races by an average of 54 lengths per race and reverted back to losing ways last time out, when only fifth of six at Huntingdon. has failed to see 2m out regularly, so 2m5f-plus poses more problems here.

OVER MILK WOOD has yet to make the frame in seven starts and has been beaten by 92, 24, 60, 7, 31, 59 and 74 lengths in those races. In his defence, he does drop in class here for his second handicap run and has at least tackled this trip before, but I'm struggling for other positives if truth be told.

We're not going to get much from the win stats on Instant Expert, so I'm showing you the place data too...

...which would suggest we're better off focusing on Pozo Emery, Flying Fortune and Jubilee Gold in a type of contest where leaders and hold-up horses haven't fared as well as those positioned somewhere between the two, which based on the field's last few runs...

...isn't the best news for Jubilee Gold from my trio of Instant Expert standouts.

Summary

A poor race on an awful day of racing, where I won't be having a bet, but if I was having one in this race, my tentative pick would be Pozo Emery at 7/1 E/W. Jubilee Gold and Flying Fortune should also be in the mix, but it's not a race to spend too much time on.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/03/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...which is, as usual for this time of the year, very heavily Cheltenham-based. For those of you looking to separate your Festival bets from your non-Festival bets, then The Shortlist looks like this...

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Southwell

And although the 4.10 Cheltenham has four runners on The Shortlist, I'm going to leave that alone, as better pundits than I will have already written about it here on Geegeez. Yet away from Cheltenham we do have a 15-rated Shortlist runner in one of our 'free' races, so let's head towards the 5.55 Southwell for today's column. It's as far removed from the Festival as it could be, being a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Since finishing as a runner-up in back to back races at Wolverhampton in October and December 2023, The Craftymaster is six from six, including four wins on Tapeta, three over today's trip, one here at Southwell and one over course and distance, when two lengths clear last time out. None of his rivals won last time out, but Midnight Shimmer was a runner-up and Socialist Agenda was third of nione here over 1m6f. Aside from The Craftymaster, only Churchella has won any of their last seven races, as she scored three and five races ago.

Her hopes will be boosted by a drop down from Class 5, just as Zooks does in a first-time tongue tie, but any hope might extinguished by the fact that The Craftymaster also makes the same step down in grade, whilst Kintaro drops down two classes for his first run in cheekpieces.

The Craftymaster has five wins and a place from six efforts at 2m/2m½f and is 1 from 1 here at Southwell, but none of his rivals have scored at either track or trip with Instant Expert making our featured runner look a bit of a shoo-in...

Churchella's wins last September & December set her aside from the others on going and class, but she's still 3lbs higher than her last win despite losing her last two. That said, she ran pretty well to finish second of six over course and distance here two starts ago in what has been her only effort beyond 1m6f to date and this run is reflected below in the IE place stats...

...where bottom-weight Midnight Shimmer also becomes of interest and Sugarpiehoneybunch looks very vulnerable having made the frame just once in thirteen all-weather races. Just seven run here in total and over such a lengthy trip, my personal logic is that the draw really shouldn't have any effect on the outcome. Two miles is a long way to run after the gates open and even if you're six away from the rail, that shouldn't be the reason for not winning, but I'll check the stats anyway, of course.

I had to widen the search parameters to get anywhere near a working sample size, as follows...

...and although they (and I normally) say you can't argue with stats, I think that some hold more validity than others and I remain unconvinced that draw is as important in small-field staying races as it might be elsewhere (sorry, Matt!).  Pace, however, is a different story as race tactics/tempo can easily make or break a horse's chances and what we found from those races above was that leaders have a good record of making the frame, but don't manage to hold onto the lead...

If we look at the field's most recent efforts, I think that the lead will be contested by Zooks, Kintaro and Midnight Shimmer...

...which makes them very susceptible to late runs from The Craftymaster, Churchella and Socialist Agenda, as I've already put Sugarpiehoneybunch out of contention.

Summary

He's going to be terribly short, but barring some form of fluke or disaster, this has to be The Craftymaster's seventh win on the bounce. I know he's up in weight carrying a penalty but he's down in class and should blow these all away late on. I'm not a fan of backing shorties and there were no odds available at 3.15pm on Monday, but the two tissues I saw had him at 5/4 & 7/4 and if you can get those types of prices, then there could actually still be some value from a runner that I think should be odds on.

Elsewhere, Midnight Shimmer and Socialist Agenda should run their races and the tissues have them at around the 7/2 and 4/1 mark respectively, but the one I think that might beat them and make the frame would be Churchella at 11/2 or thereabouts. She's got some relatively recent winning form in the bank and has two wins and a runner-up finish from four rides with Danny Tudhope in the saddle and Danny is 19 from 88 (21.6% SR) on the tapeta here at Southwell, including 8 from 32 at Class 6, 7 from 21 on favourites, 5 from 30 for trainer David O'Meara and 2 from 2 on Class 6 favs.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/03/2024

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Esprit du Potier (The Potter's Spirit?) must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 8.30 Southwell

The first of our trio of 'free' evening races is not only the joint highest-rated race in the UK for Tuesday, but also the most valuable, so let's have a look at who might land the £7851 top prize in the 6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

As I'm a bit later than usual going 'live ' today, I've already seen the market, which I don't usually do and my initial thoughts about the race were that the top four in the market are probably the ones to look hardest at ie Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day in card order, but the analysis might tell me otherwise.

None of the ten managed to win last time out, but Assessment has won two of his last four, Borgi was an LTO runner-up and Leap Day has been runner-up in each of his last two. Tropez Power, Perseverants and Vecchio are winless in 8, 7 and 7 with Vecchio being a seven-race maiden, whilst despite not winning any of his last eight, Tropez Power has made the frame in seven of his last twelve starts, winning twice.

Borgi, fast-finishing Master of Combat, Perseverants, Vecchio and bottom weight Three Yorkshiremen all step up a class here, whilst Leap Day and Life On The Rocks are both up two classes today. Top weight Assessment makes a yard debut for Archie Watson after leaving Sir Michael Stoute, but might well need the run after a 285-day break, especially as all his rivals have raced in the last 15-45 days.

Vecchio, Life On The Rocks and Borgi have yet to win over this type of distance, but the latter has at least won here at Southwell, landing a 7f maiden on debut back in February 2022. Of his rivals, only Leap Day and Tropez Power have also scored here and both are course and distance winners with the latter having a 131 record from three attempts, making him just about the pick from an average looking set of numbers on Instant Expert...

I say average, rather than poor because all of the red above is from sample sizes of four races or less and if any were to win a race soon, they'd soon be at 20% or higher. Now, whilst the win stats above don't exactly point us towards any sort of decision or help whittle the field down, the same cannot be said about the following place data from the same parameters...

...because they're saying (to me, at least) that we focus on the four I initially mentioned plus Master of Combat, giving us runners in stalls 2, 3, 7, 8 and 10, which might make the draw stats very interesting. Let's check...

...the basic 'split the field into three' stats says that higher drawn runners don't make the frame often enough, but that mid-drawn runners fare best of all, which isn't good considering I've eliminated the runners in stalls 4, 5 and 6! But all is not lost, as the PRB3 data suggests that those drawn lowest still have a good chance of beating most of their rivals...

...whilst the pace data from those very races above...

...says we should avoid pace-setters and hold-up horses wherever possible and that doesn't bode too well for either Leap Day nor Tropez Power from my shortlist.

Summary

I had four runners (Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day) in mind from the start and I added Master of Combat to the list during my analysis. Master of Combat has been in decent nick and could be an outside bet for the places, but (a) I think he's the least likely of the five to succeed and (b) I'd want more than 7/1 to go E/W on him, even if both Hills and Sky are offering four places.

Then, of my original four, I've doubts about Assessment's race sharpness after more than nine months off. He certainly has ability/promise, but odds of 13/8 to 2/1 don't scream value to me after such a long absence and he is drawn widest of all. Tropez Power is a former course and distance winner and drawn low, but is held-up for a run more often than not and those tactics are a negative here. Borgi has won here before, will be handily placed from a pace perspective from a low draw and the only issue with him is a step up in class, whilst Leap Day is not only up two classes, he's a confirmed front runner and will be the target they will all aim at.

None of my final four tick all the boxes, but after looking back at the market's best odds at 6.30pm...

...my tentative 1-2 would be Borgi to beat Tropez Power, who'll have to avoid traffic on a late run. Leap Day has a better draw than Assessment and might hold him off for the place money.

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/02/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.23 Chepstow
  • 2.03 Fairyhouse
  • 2.40 Fairyhouse
  • 3.20 Southwell
  • 3.50 Fairyhouse

We have TJC runners taking each other on in a couple of Kempton races, but it's not everyday that the list of free races has a Group race, so it'd almost be rude to not cover the 3.20 Southwell, the 6-runner, Group 3, Winter Derby Stakes over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...

The Winter Derby has been run over 1m2f on Polytrack at Lingfield for as long as I care to remember, but we've a new home, surface and trip this year, featuring half a dozen runners with just two previous visits to Southwell between them!

Tyrrhenian Sea was a winner last time out, as was Lord North, who not only won last year's Winter Derby but followed it up with a Group 1 turf success at Meydan, meaning he comes here on a hat-trick. All six have won at least one of their last six with LTO runner-up Military Order winning three times.

He also gets a 1lb weight pull from his five rivals, but is up in class here, as is Claymore. Eydon makes a yard debut for Andrew Balding here, some 665 days after a decent fourth of fifteen in 2022's 2000 Guineas and last year's Winter Derby winner Lord North also returns from a lengthy break of eleven months.

As I said earlier, this field has just two previous Southwell runs, as Military Order finished second (headed in the final strides) and last of six over course and distance in the trial for this race a month ago...

This lack of course/distance form is, as you'd expect, highlighted in Instant Expert...

...which suggests the action will be in the bottom half of the card/alphabet, as indeed do the corresponding place stats...

Forest of Dean is a definite no from me with those figures, I'm reluctant to back Eydon after a 665-day break, even if he was excellent in the 2000 Guineas back in 2022 and Claymore has the best part of five lengths to make up on Military Order, so I agree with Instant Expert here about which half of the field I want. Of those three runners, the draw and PRB3 stats suggest that Lord North and Tyrrhenian Sea would be better suited...

...although I'm always a little wary of relying on draw data over trips beyond 10f and/or in races of just six runners as the width between stall 1 and stall 6 shouldn't be the reason for losing and if truth be told, stall 1 has fared well enough in those races above...

...so after the draw data, I'm keeping three in play. As for the pace tactics of those 30-odd races above, it has paid to neither go off too quickly nor to sit out back, as it is the prominent/mid-division runners who have prospered the most from both a win and place perspective...

,,,and if we then check the field's last few races...

...it would be Eydon, Lord North and Military Order ticking those boxes.

Summary

I decided quite early in the piece that (alphabetically) Lord North, Military Order and Tyrrhenian Sea would be the half of the field I wanted to be with and there's no disputing that not only is Lord North the class act here, but he also ticks all the boxes during the analysis above. So I suppose the question is whether you want to back him to win at 5.40pm's fairly slim odds of 7/4, having not raced for eleven months and with no tapeta experience.

Military Order is the one I think who will run him closest on the back of a good run here in the trial over course and distance, but his odds of 9/4 would perversely seem to offer even less value. The problem here is that Eydon & Claymore are 25/1 and 40/1 respectively, meaning the sharp end of the market is even sharper than expected. I was hoping the top two would be priced around 2/1 and 3/1 and as such, Military Order would be the value play, but at 7/4 and 9/4, I'd have to put Lord North forward as best value, although it's a low bar!

Hopefully the above makes some form of sense, but these are my 1-2 and I suspect the reverse forecast won't pay much either. Fingers crossed, Lord North might drift out to 2's.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/02/24

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Clonmel
  • 2.55 Clonmel
  • 3.47 Southwell
  • 4.00 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Clonmel

...from which I think I'll take a look at the 3.47 Southwell, 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Bottom weight Hiatus was a winner last time out and Northern Spirit made the frame for the ninth time in his last eleven starts (inc 3 wins). Sluzewiec has yet to win any of five UK outings, but did win six starts ago in France, whilst Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Seven Brothers have failed to win any of their last 8, 12 and 11 races respectively.

Seven Brothers' bid to break his cold spell might not be helped by not having had a run for almost eight months, whilst Northern Spirit also returns from 20 weeks off the track. The rest of the field have all raced in the last month with She's Centimental turned back out just five days after her last run.

Evocative Spark and Sluzewiec are the only two in this field yet to win over this trip, whilst previous Southwell winners Gulliver, Billyjoh, She's Centimental and Hiatus are all course and distance winners and these are highlighted on Instant Expert...

...where Evocative Spark's numbers over the last couple of years haven't been great under today's conditions in general. Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Hiatus haven't won many on standard going and the latter two have struggled in this grade, as has She's Centimental, but she interests me with her four wins over today's trip. Sadly she has only made the frame once in her seven defeats at this trip and it is Northern Spirit who catches the eye on the place data...

...although he is shown as being some 11lbs higher than his last A/W win, but he is only 8lbs higher than his last turf win and has finished third in each of his last two outings, both off today's mark. He's drawn pretty much slap bang in the middle of the stalls in box 5 for a contest where it has been more favourable to be drawn in stall 7 or lower over the last couple of years...

Those same races have also suited horses keen to get on with things...

...making this draw/pace heat map less than surprising...

...where runners drawn mid to high with a hold up running style have really struggled. We know how this field have approached their last four outings...

...which sadly shows a distinct lack of early pace, suggesting that we might well get a falsely run race.

Summary

Sadly, I haven't picked a great race to analyse, which is the risk I take by doing the piece on a 'live' basis. My thoughts here are that Northern Spirit should be the best runner in the race, but has tended to find one or two a bit too good for him, especially off his current career high mark. He hasn't raced for over 20 weeks and all things considered, 7/2 is a little on the short side. Billyjoh is even shorter as the 13/8 favourite and that looks a bit tight based on his last run, so he's not for me.

That then does leave us with eight runners priced at 8/1 or bigger and there could well be some E/W action and whilst I'm probably going to sit this one out, the ones that I'd be interested would probably be She's Centimental and LTO course and distance winner Hiatus, who both opened up at 8/1 with bet365.