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Tix Picks, 16/11/24

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A 49% ROI (£24 to £35.70) with Friday's Tix play at Cheltenham was more fun and giggles than rock and roll, but it keeps things ticking over. There's a bumper Saturday menu today, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup highlighting Cheltenham's November fixture, as well as high class action at Navan and competitive racing at Uttoxeter and Wetherby before the tea time cards kick in. Today there's Listed racing at Newcastle and a nine-race bonanza at Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including nearly £120,000 rollover in the Scoop6 and a £250,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

Let's wheel back to Cheltenham for that big guarantee, starting at...

12.35 Cheltenham

The juveniles get us started in a 3yo Triumph Hurdle Trial guess up. James Owen won the race for the Gredley family last year with Burdett Road and, staying close to Poplar, he saddles East India Dock for the same connections this time. He is 90-rated on the flat, which loosely translates to 130-odd potential over hurdles; that would be enough to take this, though he may need to improve a little on an easy win at Wincanton last month. He led or pressed the lead all the way there, and might face contention from, amongst others, Model Approach if attempting that run style again. A.

In opposition is a JP McManus runner, My Noble Lord, trained by the Greenall/Guerriero axis - an emerging force - and this lad has won his last four, three on the flat and his debut over hurdles. On the level, he reached a progressive peak of 83 and his single jumps run was also slightly below the bar set by East India Dock; still, he was very novicey in that initial effort and can improve a chunk for the experience. A.

One other worth a mention and a place on B is the highly experienced ex-French Static, who was a neck second in a Listed contest on his UK bow and might have been a touch unlucky not to win. He doesn't have the upside of the other two named but brings battle hardiness to the table. Prairie Angel has won two middling Irish contests and was lesser-rated on the flat, so it will be disappointing for the British contingent if he's good enough to beat them: the overseas team will surely have much better Triumph options as the season wears on.

1.10 Cheltenham

Race 2 is an amateur riders' handicap chase, a contest where not all amateurs are made equal. Take Patrick Mullins for instance: he's ridden 50 winners at a near 0ne-in-three clip in the past year. That's more than many pro's have achieved and a strike rate none will have matched! He gets on the unexposed Transmission, who was second here on his chasing debut last time behind yesterday's Listed winner Hyland and looks credibly handicapped off 129.

It's obviously a substantial risk almost banking in a race like this but he's my sole A, to which I'll add just one B in Read To Return, trained by Tony Martin. The trainer had a second in a handicap hurdle here yesterday and this chap was 5th of 16, beaten only six lengths, in this race last year. Again, jockeys are important, and Fin Maguire is another highly experienced amateur.

Come On Teddy gets a positive trainer switch, and Toby McCain-Mitchell is another jockey uplift on The Newest One, winner of a similar race at the October meeting; but I'm going to risk it for a biscuit on Transmission, A, and Read To Return, B.

1.45 Cheltenham

A Grade 2 novice chase is Leg 3, and we have another borderline even money favourite. Horses sent off 10/11 to 11/10 in novice chases since 2019 have placed at 55%, a rate at which they should have just about won - so while I'm not opposing L'Eau Du Sud, I'm also not singling him. He was a smart hurdler last season, second in both the Betfair Hurdle and the County Hurdle, and he kicked off his novice chase campaign with a ten length win at Stratford. He made one howler there, and Cheltenham will offer greater tests than Shakespeare country, but he's obviously classy.

Lookaway won a G2 hurdle here last October before running second in the 2023 Greatwood Hurdle so clearly acts on the track. His win in a match at Uttoxeter on his sole fencing outing tells us little but he jumped adequately and handles top of the ground. I wonder if he has quite the scope of a couple of these, though.

The experienced one, having been summer jumping, is Breizh River. He's progressed from 107 to 135 and, while these are 'proper winter horses', we know quick ground and match fitness won't be issues.

With there being eight runners at time of writing, I'm going L'Eau Du Sud tentatively as A banker, with Lookaway and Breizh River on B. It might be as simple as that... and it might not be!

2.20 Cheltenham

The Paddy Power next. Ginny's Destiny is favourite and has loads of track form including when winning a novice at this meeting last year and when running second in the Turners (as well as a the Manifesto at Aintree). Stage Star was an all the way winner of this for Nicholls and Cobden last year off a mark of 155, and they'll bid to repeat the dose most likely with a horse rated exactly the same.

The Irish have a pretty poor record in this in recent years and I'm leaning into that in the hope they again miss the board. Focusing on 7-9yo's that ran in the last 60 days leaves me with Ga Law and Il Ridoto in support. All three on A. [And I might have a tiny e/w bet on Weveallbeencaught with as many extra places as I can get]

2.55 Cheltenham

A handicap hurdle next and another race with a strong favourite but a competitive look underneath. Doyen Quest nearly won here last month, and steps up to three miles for the first time. He looks an obvious jolly but does need to stay this extra half a mile. A.

As I referenced yesterday, David Pipe is a man for this meeting, his American Sniper running very well in 6th after being made an awful lot of use of early in the race. This time it's the JP horse Thanksforthehelp which is taking market action and commands respect. With form of P06 he hardly screams 'bet', but he's tumbled back to the mark off which he won a Class 2 Pertemps qualifier in February 2023 and he was entitled to need his first run of the season: this looks to have been the plan. A.

Gowel Road has a lot of weight but plenty of form under these conditions, too, for another trainer - Nigel Twiston-Davies - who gets winners at this meeting - he goes on B. And Pinnacle Peak and Zeeband are 'C' players with a squeak. Unnamed favourite on B, too.

3.30 Cheltenham

Tony Martin won this two years ago with the favourite and bids to reprise that with the almost unspellable Hamsiyann. He's been off since May, when he ran well in the Chester Plate, but has a stone in hand of the flat to hurdle extrapolation. Of course, he may simply not be good enough; but it's folly to oppose him in the placepot. A.

Henry Daly's mare Wyenot has cracking form behind the brilliant and under-rated Golden Ace; she led all the way here last month and, up six, will make another bold bid from the front - A. I'm against the Skeltons' Major Fortune on account of the ground, though he won't be a shock winner, and I prefer the claims of class-dropping Long Draw. B. Champagne Twist won the Novices' Final at Sandown last season and, if fit enough on this first run of the campaign, is another who can go forward from his current mark. B.

There are others with chances in a deep-looking final leg but we can't take them all!

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All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

Remember, no Tix Picks on Sunday, though there are often sweet fish to fry - so do get involved yourself. I'll be back Monday morning.

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 15/11/24

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A nice win for Chris with Thursday's Tix play at Chelmsford, and there's plenty to go at today, Friday, with racing from Cheltenham's November meeting, as well as Newcastle, Punchestown and Southwell over jumps, and Wolverhampton and Dundalk this evening on the sand.

If you're new around here, it's worth taking a moment to familiarise with the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £200,000 guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

It's an unsurprisingly challenging six-legger at Chelto but with the big guarantee it's well worth a dart or two, starting at...

1.10 Cheltenham

We start with a big field handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, and it could well be an early bath! There are two runners, Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos on six-timers - double hat-tricks if you will - and they're obvious A players given their lowly starting points and waited with run styles (it's often harder for the handicapper to assess the level of horses that win from off the pace).

David Pipe is a man to keep on the team at this fixture, and his American Sniper - although lugging top weight - won this race last year off just a pound lower mark. B. Second in the weights is Whatsupwithyou, a lad with three silver medals round here and, most notably, a fourth in the Martin Pipe. He's another easy B.

I want C action here, too, and I'll lob in the Tony Martin possible plot (whose form I don't really like but whose price I respect), Young Lucy; and more interestingly/speculatively, Getalead (potentially very well handicapped on old form despite arriving on a hat-trick and a lover of good ground), Littlefoot (unexposed and showed a liking for big field quick ground at Ballinrobe recently) and Clonbury Bridge at the other end of the exposure spectrum but one who relishes a top of the ground battle in a big field.

Phew.

1.45 Cheltenham

From the melee of race one to a four-runner novices' chase. Win only for placepot purposes makes it tricky, as does 4/1 the outsider: they've all got a theoretical 20% or better chance of winning. Springwell Bay is favoured and he has looked classy on occasion, as when winning over 2m3f last time; but his pedigree doesn't assure that he'll stay even though he's gone close in lower class handicap hurdles at this range. Still, he cannot sensibly be left off A tickets; but nor is he banker material.

He'll share top billing with Hyland, an easy course/distance/going winner last month. He's up in grade but could have more to offer on good turf; and I think I'm throwing the other pair on A, too. Buddy One is the highest rated of these and can be forgiven a below par spin last time; he won at this meeting (3m handicap hurdle) last year and is usually bang there. Meanwhile, the Olly Murphy / Sean Bowen combo is hot hot hot right now, and they combine with Resplendent Grey, a winner of five of his eleven races and his sole chase run. He's the lowest rated of these but has bags of scope to step forward - though he'll need to prove he can handle both this far and this fast. I think he probably can.

Unnamed favourite as well.

2.20 Cheltenham

We're at leg 3 and could hardly be accused of taking a chance yet! This is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase and another four-cornered contest. Jonbon is a short-priced favourite, and he's six from six in his head to heads with these rivals, winning the four races in which he's faced them. Indeed, he's won 14 of 17 lifetime, and every time when off a layoff, including in this race last year. He might not win but he's got to be the banker. Sole A, and hope he's as good as ever.

N.B. If something interesting happened from a placepot perspective in one of the first two legs, you might consider laying Jonbon to cover some/all of your placepot stakes...

2.55 Cheltenham

Cross Country time and this handicap comprises largely the usual suspects, but with a couple of newcomers at opposite ends of the awareness continuum. Conflated is a mid-160's genuine Grade 1 horse that ran a close second to Jonbon in the G1 Melling Chase in April. He has all the weight to carry and this has traditionally been a sighter race for Gordon Elliott's Festival Cross Country brigade, almost all of which have been out of the frame at single figure prices. And yet this fella is taking support as I write.

Virtually unknown to the British audience - and to me - is Sweet David, a five-year-old French raider trained by Gabriel Leenders. He ran a huge race on his cross country debut at Craon and, if that wasn't a flash in the pan, he's at the right end of the handicap to get involved. Leenders deploys Felix de Giles to steer, his record over this course and distance reading 132432532 in the last few years.

It's a really tough race to unpick, with lots trying the fences for the first time, something that is generally a negative. Gavin Cromwell's Cheltenham record is right up there, and his Fameaftertheglory was third over these fences, albeit on soft ground. The quicker lawns would be a concern but he at least shapes up well otherwise. Back On The Lash won this off 138 in 2021, and a later season race over the same course/distance in 2023 off 137; he runs today from a perch of just 122, testament to his spotty form since. But as a dual cross country scorer in a field largely made up of virgins in the discipline, he might step back to something closer to his old sparkle.

In spite of my reservations, I'm taking Conflated on A along with Sweet David; and Fameaftertheglory on B and Back On The Lash on C. But I might easily have this race wrong.

3.30 Cheltenham

Six runners contest this G2 novice hurdle over 2m5f and two of them are very big prices indeed. Valgrand bashed Gale Mahler last time, which was unexpected, and both step up markedly in trip - from two miles. Gale Mahler gets five pounds more of a weight pull this time and I just don't quite believe the margin from their previous meeting, so both go on A. Potters Charm has more scope to improve but he'll need to, on both bare form and hurdling aptitude; it's the latter which sees him relegated to B on my tickets. And, while Rockstown Girl is probably overpriced at 25/1, I don't see all of the three already mentioned being out of the frame.

Unnamed favourite on B also.

4.00 Cheltenham

And we close with a 2m novices' handicap hurdle where a single non-runner will mean only three places. Sheesh. Fasol is an unexposed ex-French fastgroundophile. Group placed on the level this will be his handicap debut and, off 108, he could be absolutely lobbed in (he's got a flat RPR higher than his best current hurdles RPR - you'd normally expect the jumping one to be around 40lb superior!) - A.

Much more obvious is Balhambar, a smart flat horse when with Sir Michael Stoute and a decent dual purpose player now switched to Harry Derham. He seems to handle any ground, had a nice pipe opener on the flat last month and should go well. A.

I'm taking three on B, Chutzpal, Wreckless Eric and Clap Of Thunder and, frankly, I'm spready pretty thinly...

[Outside of the placepot, I might risk a penny each way on Dream Escape at 50/1+, just for kicks]

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All of which gives us...

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, Thursday 14/11/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Market Rasen, Sedgefield & Taunton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The money is good on the Essex Speedway so let's head for the polytrack for six races beginning with...

5.00 Chelmsford, a 15-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies maiden over 7f...

Six of the fifteen have yet to race and are therefore unknown quantities, so in races like this if I'm having three picks, I tend to take two with experience and one debutant and of those with a run under their belts Magic Glow, Mrs Dowley and Sheephavensbay set the benchmark.

Magic Glow was a 1.5 length runner-up on debut at Wolverhampton in September, but never really got involved back there next/last time out a fortnight later, but if running like she did first time out that might be enough here. Mrs Dowley was third of twelve on her sole start to date, finishing strongly at Wolverhampton over 6f just three days ago and she might well relish the extra furlong, whilst Sheephavensbay produced her best effort to date last time out when beaten by less than a length over 7f at Wolverhampton (3rd of 11) last time out.

Low draws work well here over 7f and the trio above are in stalls 3, 4 and 15, but despite a poor draw, Sheephavensbay has that Chelmsford non-negotiable early pace...

Of the newcomers Antalya, Casual Encounter and Queen Sansa appeal more than the other three. Antalya is by Time Test and is half-sister to 5f winner Istanbul and 6f winners Darwina and Soulofchess. The dam Anadolu won over 5f too, so there's plenty of pace in her breeding.

Casual Encounter is by Passing Glance and is a half-sister to 1m3½f winner City Spirit. She's out of Cape Spirit whose own best efforts came at 1m3f to 1m6f, so this one might well need further in time. Queen Sansa is by dual Group 1, 1m2f winner Almanzor out of New Jazz who was a winner over a mile and made the frame in 5 of 7 starts at 7f to 1m1f.

Casual Encounter has the best of the draw in stall 6 of this trio, but I think I'll take (2) Antalya from the debutants along with (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley in this tricky opener.

5.30 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...

Needlepoint sets the standard on form, having won a 5.5f maiden at Chantilly on her sole outing, but much will depend on her fitness after 17 months off. Of those with a more recent run, Space Trooper has finished 332 so far and was 3rd of 7 over 1m here on debut two months ago and most lately a 1.5 length runner-up over 7f at Newcastle, whilst bottom weight Anamika was also a runner-up last time out going down by just half a length here at Chelmsford over a mile. And having made most that day and caught late on, the drop back to 7f might help.

Safety first, I'll take all three; (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika due to concerns about the top weight's fitness.

6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Riot is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ran a decent race at Wolverhampton last time out. Ultramarine has made the frame in seven of his last eight over the past three months.

Extrication was a three length runner up here over course and distance four weeks ago, whilst Arctic Dawn is 223 in his last three, finishing as runner-up beaten by half a length and a length on his two A/W starts and former course & distance winner Airshow completes my shortlist having been in the frame in five of his last six and he's one of the more likely front runners from my shortlist...

...and whilst he's be an unlikely winner off his current mark, he's consistent and could well make the frame again at a big price, but I'd expect him to play second fiddle to the equally consistent Ultramarine and Arctic Dawn, so lets take those three from this one.

6.30 Chelmsford, a 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Respiro Solitario improved dramatically from his nursery debut to his second attempt and further progression puts him in the mix in a poor-looking contest. Manara hasn't shown a great deal in her qualifying runs, but they were all at a higher grade and only over 6f, so she could be better than she appears so far.

Flaine won at Southwell last time out, setting the tempo and staying on, so she's a real danger here, despite a 6lb penalty for that win 10 days ago, whilst Cassandraalexandra is the only other previous winner in the race having showed enough pace to win over 6f at Brighton two months ago and she's got the talented Kaiya Fraser in the saddle today. Pace scores from this field's last outing are as follows...

...and based on the limited form and pace datas we have, I'm inclined to take the two runners with a win under their belts ie (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra, whilst also taking a chance on further improvement from (1) Respiro Solitario

7.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kessaar Power, Dashing Donkey and Meng Tian were all runners-up last time out with Kessaar Power winning three races ago beating Meng Tian by 2.5 lengths. United Force won his penultimate outing and Dashing Donkey's last six read 114732. Low draws do well here, which is good for the likes of Heeratthetrack, This Time Maybe, Dashing Donkey and United Force in stalls 1 to 4...

...whilst the pace profiles of Elterwater, Kessaar Power and Dashing Donkey seem ideal for the task ahead...

...the runners without swathes of red on Instant Expert are...

...and if we use these six runners to refer back to the pace draw heat map...

...it has to be (3) Kessaar Power & (4) Dashing Donkey here with one other, who I think might just be (6) Meng Tian, who is decent nick and has made the frame in four of his last five over course and distance including finishing as runner-up 2.5 lengths behind Kessaar Power almost three weeks ago, but he's 5lbs better off here which could give him a great chance of being in the mix yet again.

7.30 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Flying Fletcher is two from three, having landed a pair of 6f handicaps at Newcastle by 3.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths more than ten months apart, winning pulling away nine days ago, so if he handles the Poly as well as he does the tapeta, he's got a great chance. Justcallmepete won three starts ago, as did Daytona Lady, who has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last six outings.

Happy Tears has won and placed third in her last two and her last seven read 3325513, so she's pretty consistent and did win over course and distance at the end of August and my form shortlist is completed by Fantasy Master who drops in class after winning at Nottingham last time out and he has two wins and three places from his last nine and it will be interesting to see if he can transfer his good recent form over to the A/W where his record reads 0877, albeit spread over four years!

There's no great pace in the race..

..so we could get a falsely run race which would suit those with the best records under these conditions and if we look at both the win and the place elements of Instant Expert, this is the entire sum of the positive 'green blocks'...

...so I'm on (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Antalya, (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley

Leg 2: (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika

Leg 3: (6) Ultramarine, (8) Arctic Dawn & (10) Airshow at the expense of Riot.

Leg 4: (1) Respiro Solitario, (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra

Leg 5: (3) Kessaar Power, (4) Dashing Donkey & (6) Meng Tian

Leg 6: (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Please Note The bad news is that I'm away in Europe on business (I run a travel agency aside from my Geegeez duties) from 4am Friday until late Wednesday so my next column will be in a week's time on the 21st November. The good news for you guys is that Matt will be providing you with his Tix Picks in my absence.

Tix Picks, Wednesday 13/11/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bangor, Lingfield & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

Bangor looks too 'novice-y' for my liking and there are only 37 runners at Ayr in total, so we'll stick to the A/W again today and as we did Southwell yesterday, let's head for Lingfield where the polytrack is said to be standard as usual for...

11.35 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Obsidian Knight, Masqool and Forge Valley Lad have all won over course and distance and Obsidian Knight has a 56% (9 from 16) place strike rate on the A/W. Achillea won two starts ago and Star Pupil won three races back, as did Crafter, whilst bottom weight Moon Over The Sea has made the frame in 7 of his 10 starts this year, including two wins.

Three of the runners that caught my eye from a place perspective are on their last winning mark or lower today...

Sadly there's no real pace in the race today...

...so I'll rely on Instant Expert more here and take C&D winners (1) Obsidian Knight and (6) Masqool plus (11) Moon Over The Sea, who should offer more value than Achillea in the market.

12.05 Lingfield, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Turner Girl has been in the frame in 3 of her last 5 and has a 50% career place strike rate on both the Flat (9/18) and the A/W (7/14) and was a decent third of sixteen last time out. Sun Dancer has won three of her last five but was last home of seven over course and distance 11 days ago and has been eased a pound by the assessor.

This pair along with Glimmer of Light also seem the more likely from a pace perspective...

...and also from an Instant Expert angle...

(1) Turner Girl is the one I'd want to be with and with concerns over Sun Dancer's poor run over C&D off just 1lb higher last time out, I'll take the unexposed (3) Glimmer of Light as my alternate.

12.35 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

No past winners here and three of the twelve are on debut. Of those with a run, (1) Al Shababi was a runner-up on debut four weeks ago less than a length behind a runner rated 95 who had already won at Class 2 and (2) Best Rate was third a week earlier. (7) Present Times has the benefit of two runs under his belt and has been both second and third so far and drops in class here.

Venezuelan drops three classes here and might be popular with his yard going so well at the moment, but he blew the start on debut and the three named above make more sense to me at the moment and all three are drawn high, which is often a positive here.

1.05 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

The second division of the above race looks weaker and trickier to call with five of the ten runners making their racecourse bows. All five with a previous run drops in class and it's the first two on the card that make most appeal.

(1) Cape Breton is a son of Frankel, cost 450,000gns as a yearling and is a half-brother to To Catch A Thief who is a 3-time winner between 1m1½f and 1m3½f including a Class 2 handicap last time out. (2) Charming Life was 4th of 15 on debut at the start of the month and showed some early promise and a willingness to get on with things and he's a €400,000 yearling, Dubawi gelding and half brother to Opera Mundi who won a 7f Listed race in France as a 2yo this time last year.

A debutant often makes the frame in this level of race and to be fair it wouldn't take much and despite the fact that he's going to be a huge price, I quite like the look of (4) Gemmari. He's by Expert Eye and a half-brother to a few winners including Gemina who won over 7f as a 2yo, Gibeon a winner at both 7f and 1m2f and also Gendarme who won at 1m2f to 1m4f on the flat and over hurdles at 2m. All came out of the dam Gravitation who won a Group 3 race over 1m6f.

1.37 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Final Voyage is sent over from Ireland for this one having a win and two places from his last five starts and was third over 6f at Dundalk last time out. Dual 7f winner Bobby Bennu is still relatively unexposed after just six races and was a runner-up last time out, a little unlucky to run into a horse winning for the third time in four starts.

Blue Prince has made the frame in five of his last seven and is a bold confident type used to running in bigger fields than this. Local Hero has also won two of his six starts, Cill Mocheallog has a win and two places from four, whilst Lady Dreamer has three wins and a place from her last five.

But my preferences here are (1) Final Voyage, (2) Bobby Bennu & (3) Blue Prince

2.07 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ fillies Listed stakes over 1m5f...

The bookies have only got four runners at 8/1 or shorter here and I think they've got it right. (1) Sea Theme (by Sea The Stars) was mid-division in the 14-runner Group 1 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes at Ascot, has already won two Listed races and her yard (Wiliam Haggas) has won this race in the four of the last seven renewals. (4) Scarlett O'Hara was second to Sea Theme in a Listed race at Clairefontaine back in July. She was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day and might get closer here now 3lbs better off.

(10) Madame Celeste won over a mile at Dundalk on debut almost a year ago and has since been a Group 3 runner-up beaten by a neck at Naas and suffered a similar fate behind Bellezza in the Diamond Stakes at Dundalk over 1m2½f seven weeks ago on her last run. She likes to race prominently and it is hoped that first time blinkers do the trick here. (11) Meribella is also by Sea The Stars and has won at 7f and 1m4f, winning over the longer trip at the Doncaster St leger meeting two months ago on her last run, beating the useful filly Cabrera by a short head.

I agree with the bookies that Scarlett O'Hara is probably the most vulnerable of the four, so she's the one I'll omit as I go with (1) Sea Theme, (10) Madame Celeste & (11) Meribella for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Obsidian Knight, (6) Masqool & (11) Moon Over The Sea

Leg 2: (1) Turner Girl & (3) Glimmer of Light

Leg 3: (1) Al Shababi, (2) Best Rate & (7) Present Times

Leg 4: (1) Cape Breton, (2) Charming Life & (4) Gemmari

Leg 5: (1) Final Voyage, (2) Bobby Bennu & (3) Blue Prince

Leg 6: (1) Sea Theme, (10) Madame Celeste & (11) Meribella

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 12/11/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hereford, Huntingdon, Lingfield & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Southwell having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on standard going tapeta...

5.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Blenheim Lad comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins over course and distance in September/October and although up 6lbs here should be winning again here, especially as there's not much else to write about when it comes to the form of his rivals.

None of the seven made the frame last time out, none have won any of their last seven races, but Alex The Great has finished second and fourth in his last two and Gentle Fire was a runner-up two starts ago and now makes a yard debut for Tony Carroll, who also trains Alex The Great.

The pace/draw heat map looks like this...

...and Instant Expert like this...

...so I'm going with (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire

5.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 7f...

Rotation won a seller back in July but has struggled since, Seed Investor was 3rd of 11 at Catterick 24 days ago and We've Got This has three top-four finishes from his four starts (2934). Isla Bella makes an A/W debut and although last home of nine at Thirsk most recently, she did win at Brighton in May and was a Class 3 runner-up at York on her subsequent outing.

Zadkiel has been third in each of his last two starts and both Sherlock and Realise The Dream were third last time out too, but bottom weight Whizz By comes here off the back of a fairly comfortable win over course and distance on handicap debut just under three weeks ago and looks the one to beat.

Isla Bella looks like setting the tempo of the race here...

...so although she's going to be a big price, I'm going to add (5) Isla Bella to my ticket builder along with form picks (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By

6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

Novak comes here off the back of three placed (312) runs in tight finishes and was only beaten by a neck over course and distance last time out, whilst three of his stablemates all won last week. Ideal Guest has two wins and a place from his last five starts and Monopolise looked quite comfortable when winning at Kempton by the thick end of two lengths eight days ago.

Ideal Guest and Monopolise also feature in the front half of the pace averages...

...which also suggests bold efforts from Royal Parade and Mark's Choice, but the former has only made the frame in 2 of 10 A/W starts (0 wins) and whilst the latter made the frame in back to back 7f Tapeta handicaps (1 over C&D) last November, he hasn't raced since finishing 10th of 12 at Newcastle 11 months ago!

So from that pace graphic, I'll discard those two and keep the two form picks along with Novak...

6.30 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies novice over 6f...

Cressida Wildes has already made the frame in three of her last four starts, only missing out when beaten by less than two lengths in a Listed race at Newbury in August and she has been a Class 2 runner-up and it is hoped that her first-time cheekpieces do the business for her here. Marvelously has steadily improved and was third over course and distance last time out, whilst Nazuki hit the ground running here (also over this trip) when a runner-up on debut almost four weeks ago.

This trio look the pick on form from those who've already had race experience, whilst of the debutants, Nakaaha is the most interesting. She's by Bated Breath and her dam was a winner at both 1m2f and 1m4f. This 2yo cost 80,000 gns as a foal and then 62,000 gns as a yearling and represents a yard in good nick with a healthy record at this venue...

This quartet are my shortlist and the one I'll omit is Marvelously.

7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Dutch Kingdom has won two of his last three including by 2.5 lengths over this trip at Chelmsford last time out and he'll seek to improve upon an already impressive 38% win and 59% place strike rate on the A/W. Secret Guest now returns to the A/W after a decent Flat campaign (placed in three of his last four) and finished 42621 on the Tapeta last winter. He was badly hampered at York in a big-field handicap last time out, but his prior run when beaten by a neck at Ripon (6f, Class 2) was excellent.

City House has made the frame in two of his last three also and Completely Random has made the frame (1 win) on both Tapeta outings to date and has made the frame in three of his last five runs, whilst Cajetan completes my 'form shortlist', having won two of his five starts this year. Those two wins are his entire A/W career and both came over 6f on tapeta, albeit at Newcastle rather than here.

There's not much in the way of pace here and Dutch Kingdom might be afforded an easy lead...

and in a tricky contest, he's on my ticket builder along with A/W 100%-er Cajetan and Completely Random who also seems to like the Tapeta.

7.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Lion Of War was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last five, Cruyff Turn won three starts ago whilst Chalk Mountain has 5 wins, 4 seconds and a third from his last ten A/W handicaps (1st and 2nd in two runs here, both over 7f). Shaw Park was a runner-up here over 7f last time out, but the one to beat looks like being Qazaq who brings a 2 from 2 record to the table after a 7f win at Chelmsford last December and a subsequent 7f win by 6 lengths at Kempton three weeks ago, despite not having raced for ten months! He was impressive that day and if he comes on for the run, the others might need binoculars to watch him finish.

A high draw is preferable here...

...as is early pace...

...so we're definitely having Qazaq!

Chalk Mountain does seem the most likely challenger based on form, draw, pace and consistency...

Lion Of War probably edges third pick for me. he has just two A/W runs under his belt to date and was only two necks away from winning at Kempton last time out finishing third in a tight 14-runner handicap with the runner-up going on to finish second again next time out over this course and distance despite stepping up in class . His other A/W run was on the tapeta at Newcastle back in June '22 and he landed a 7f Novice race by some ten lengths eased down.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire

Leg 2: (5) Isla Bella, (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By

Leg 3: (2) Novak, (3) Ideal Guest & (4) Monopolise

Leg 4: (3) Cressida Wildes, (6) Nakaaha & (7) Nazuki

Leg 5: (1) Dutch Kingdom, (6) Completely Random & (8) Cajetan

Leg 6: (1) Lion Of War, (6) Qazaq & (8) Chalk Mountain

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tricky day today, but good luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 11/11/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Carlisle, Kempton, Newcastle & Wolverhampton

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Carlisle having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on good ground...

12.00 Carlisle, a 3-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m4f...

Only 3 run here and Pic Roc makes a chase debut after finishing 2122 over hurdles. The last two runner-up finished were in 17-runner Class 1 & 2 handicaps, whilst he was a Class 2 winner at Ascot in February.

Asta La Pasta was a decent third of eight on chase debut at Ffos Las eighteen months ago despite not having raced for seven months, so he should strip fitter for the run and also benefit from the chasing experience.

Kilta actually won a 3-runner, Class 3 handicap on chase debut back in May, but was last of five beaten by 28 lengths next time out and went down by a similar margin in his last effort.

I don't want to crash out on race 1, so I'll definitely take two out of three here and Kilta looks weakest and is there omitted in favour of (1) Pic Roc & (2) Asta La Pasta.

12.30 Carlisle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m1½f...

It's a maiden hurdle, but No Questions Asked has won under Rules already, when landing a bumper at Market Rasen on debut back in February and was beaten by less than six lengths on his only other outing when a very commendable 6th of 18 in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree. Anything like that kind of run should be enough here providing he can jump, of course. That said, he did win his sole PTP contest.

Donald McCain also sends a pair of PTP winners here in the shape of top weight Barrabooka and also Cahier's Den and based on jockey bookings, the former looks the yard's #1 in this one. Willie Shake Hands was pulled up on hurdles debut at Sedgefield three weeks ago coming back from more than six months off, but had shown promise when third in a Naas bumper back in April.

Elsewhere, bottom weight Beorma is an interesting sort making a yard debut for the Skeltons after three fairly modest runs in bumpers for Tom Gallagher. I suspect they'll make something out of hi, but that might take some time.

On paper, (7) No Questions Asked should be winning this with plenty in hand and I'd expect the McCain stablemates (1) Barrabooka and (3) Cahier's Den to put up the most resistance.

1.00 Carlisle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m1½f...

Division two of the above maiden hurdle also features a pair of Donald McCain racecourse debutants coming off the back of a decent PTP run. Jockey bookings suggest Idaho Valley is the pick of the two and he won at Tallow back in February, whilst stablemate Bo Cruz was a runner-up at Borris House.

Idaho Valley is a half brother to Toss Again, a four-time winner over 2m6f to 2m7f, so he might well need further in time. Of those with track experience, Jet To Vegas was a runner-up beaten by just a length and a quarter at Carlisle last month, whilst We're Red And Blue won a bumper on debut at Hereford in February and was a runner-up at Uttoxeter on his second start over hurdles just over three weeks ago, beaten by just a length and a half.

As with the previous race, I'm going with both of the McCain debutants ie (2) Bo Cruz and (6) Idaho Valley along with the in-form (9) We're Red And Blue, who is backed up by these stats...

1.30 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

Joie More was a runner-up in an 8-runner hurdle at Kelso back in March and made a commendable seasonal reappearance 228 days later when beaten by 7.5 lengths here over course and distance on handicap debut last month and he should come on for the run having been eased 2lbs in the ratings. She's Not Joeking makes a handicap debut after finishes of 213 over hurdles and she did win on her bumper debut. She was third of fourteen at Hexham last time out, despite having not raced for almost six months, so my only concern for her here is that all her form is on ground softer than this.

Horsesomeharry showed little in his three outings (P66) in the spring, but is expected to appreciate the extra half mile here down in class, in first-time cheekpieces and on handicap debut for a yard with a good record with both handicap debutants and those coming back from a break....

Ruler Legend has already won a handicap hurdle, scoring at Huntingdon back in March and has prepared for this race by running in a heavy ground, Class 3, flat handicap at Newbury over 1m4f seventeen days ago. he overcame a six-month break to finish fourth of the eleven runners and that run should help him here for an in-form yard...

My place shortlist is completed by Get A Superstar, who always seems to be on the premises even if he has only won once to date. His bumper form read 421 and despite being pulled up on his hurdles debut back in January he has finished 434444 since, so you'd expect him to be knocking on the door again here.

I can make a case for all of the above, but I'm more drawn to (5) She's Not Joeking, (8) Ruler Legend & (9) Get A Superstar today. The latter might well finish fourth yet again opening the door for Horsesomeharry, but I don't want to take four runners from this one.

2.00 Carlisle, a 4-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ graduation chase over 2m...

I didn't want to take four runners from the above race, because I feel like I need to take three from four here to be safe. I could cut to the chase (sorry!) and just say that Nells Son is going to be my odd one out, despite having won two of his last six over fences, but I feel the other trio have more to offer today.

Unexpected Party won the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham festival this year and although last home of five last time out, that race was (a) the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree last month, (b) over a half mile further than today and 9c) off the back of a 199-day absence.

Path D'oroux won on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham less than three weeks ago in a novice contest and finished last season with results reading 2335 in Listed/Class 1 handicap chases, so he's definitely got ability.

Paul Nicholls' Kalif du Berlais becomes the latest in a long line of Berlais' to tackle fences. This one comes here after just three efforts over hurdles that saw him win a Class 2 on debut at Kempton back in January followed by a Grade 2 success in the Adonis over the same track/trip six weeks later before closing his debut season seven months ago by finishing third in an Aintree Grade 1 contest. His fitness/jumping will be taken on trust, but he's from a good yard and the Berlais name carries weight!

2.30 Carlisle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1½f...

Knowmorediamonds was a course and distance runner-up beaten by just a neck on handicap debut 25 days ago and should be involved again despite a 4lbs rise. Strictly Tango's three qualifying runs have seen him finish 331 over hurdles, scoring over 2m1f at Sedgefield just over a month ago.

Diamond Koda is another of those runners who always seems to be on the premises. He has raced three times over hurdles and in three bumpers so far finishing as runner-up five times in total, having unseated at the first two starts ago. He hasn't raced for seven months, but the horse that beat him that day has won again since and a mark of 106 (less a 5lb jockey claim) might not be too onerous on handicap debut.

Dino Baggio won two of four bumpers and raced in a Listed bumper at 2023's Cheltenham January meeting and at Grade 2 at that year's Aintree Festival although well beaten in both. His two bumper wins suggested he'd go well over hurdles, but was pulled up on his first attempt just over a ear ago and could only manage 10th of 14 in January before being sent back to the sheds. He reappeared here at Carlisle last month, though with his best hurdles effort to date, defying a nine month absence to finish fourth of ten and his mark of 96 could also be low.

These are the four that interest me the most and although I've gone with a few Donald McCain horses earlier in the card, it's his Dino Baggio that just fails to make the cut here...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Pic Roc & (2) Asta La Pasta

Leg 2: (1) Barrabooka, (3) Cahier's Den & (7) No Questions Asked

Leg 3: (2) Bo Cruz, (6) Idaho Valley & (9) We're Red And Blue

Leg 4: (5) She's Not Joeking, (8) Ruler Legend & (9) Get A Superstar

Leg 5: (2) Unexpected Party, (3) Path D'oroux & (4) Kalif du Berlais

Leg 6: (1) Knowmorediamonds, (2) Strictly Tango & (4) Diamond Koda

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 09/11/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Aintree, Chelmsford, Doncaster, Kelso & Wincanton

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with a huge guaranteed pot offered at Wincanton of all places. Let's head there for six races on good ground starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.35, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4-6yo Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f...

Sorceleur had a win and two places in four bumpers, including a 3rd of 11 in a Listed contest at Cheltenham and was only beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 at the Aintree festival. he was then a runner-up on his hurdles debut at Exeter 18 days ago before returning to that venue to win by three lengths yesterday. If he runs today, then I don't see any of the others beating him.

Of his rivals, I'd probably side with Clinton Lane, who won by a neck at Plumpton recently off the back of a 138-day absence, so he should come on for the run and he has won two of his last five.

Race 2 @ 1.09, a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f...

Tedley and Dreaming Blue both come here on hat-tricks, but the latter has been out of action for nearly seven months. Duke of Luckley has been in the first three home in seven of his last eight over fences, winning twice including last time out and this is reflected in Instant Expert's 2-year place overview...

...and it'd be Tedley and Duke of Luckley for me based on form and that graphic above.

Duke of Luckley was withdrawn whilst writing the column, so I've followed the market and replaced him with Beau Balko

Race 3 @ 1.45, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m5½f...

Sabrina won two starts ago, but was pulled up last time out and hasn't raced for six months. Pretending won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham in April, had six months off and came back with another Class 2 win at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick.

The Height of Fame looks in the grip of the assessor after her mark went from 101 to 115 after results reading 1612 and she has toiled in a couple of races since. Bethpage has also shot up in the ratings with a hat-trick in the spring/summer taking her from an opening 91 to 109, a mark off which she still finished third of eleven at Worcester in July before a three month break. She returned to action a month ago to finish as a runner-up off 112 and she should go well off that mark today.

Larchmont Lass probably found 3m+ too much for her last time out, but she had been 4th of 17 in a Grade 2 handicap at Newbury prior to that run and the drop in trip should help her here, but the one to beat on form is possibly Mermaids Cave, who has four wins and a place from her last six and comes here off the back of a two length win at Bangor 11 days ago, despite coming off a 4-month break.

From a stats perspective, Pretending's yard is in good nick...

...as are the yards of The Height of Fame...

...and Mermaids Cave...

...and I think it's Mermaids Cave for me today ahead of Pretending and Larchmont Lass.

Race 4 @ 2.23, a 5-runner, 4yo+ Grade 2 Novice Chase over 2m4f...

Insurrection and Boombawn were second and third separated by just a shirt head in a Listed race at Chepstow four weeks ago, but I prefer the former of the two, as he has the better set of previous results and that run last time out was his first crack at fences, so should come on for the run. Glynn was a runner-up at Wincanton last time out, ending a run of three straight wins over fences but he's up in class here.

Handstands make a chase bow here after finishing 1116 in his four hurdles run, the only blot being his run in a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, so no disgrace there and if he takes to fences, his win in a Listed event at Huntingdon in February shoes his potential. That said, he hasn't raced for eight months.

Soul Icon always seems to find one (or more) too good for him and he has been the runner-up in each of his last four, but was only beaten by a neck in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but might also need the run after four months off.

On actual chase form, I'd take Insurrection and then Glynn, but (a) Glynn might be outclassed here and (b) I'm worried that chase debutant Handstands might bring his hurdles form with him, so it's Handstands and Insurrection for me.

Race 5 @ 2.55, a 3-runner, 4yo+ Grade 2 Hurdle over 1m7½f...

Rubaud has won seven of his fourteen hurdle races and recently returned from a six-month break to win a Listed contest at Kempton just as he did last season and he now attempts to repeat last year's win in this contest too. Aspire Tower tuned up for this race by wining a 4-runner hurdle, but that was his first win after eight straight defeats and this looks a much tougher assignment and it's quite likely he's the last of the three home today, because Brentford Hope looks a better prospect despite a 193-day absence.

Brentford Hope was useful on the Flat and has brought that ground speed to his hurdles game, where he has only failed to make the frame once in twelve starts, winning five times and was a runner-up in a 24-runner Listed contest last time out and although I don't think he beats Rubaud here, he's on my tickets as back-up.

Race 6 @ 3.30, a 10-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1f...

Remastered clearly has ability as three wins and a narrow runner-up defeat from his last nine will testify, but on the other hand he has been pulled up in four of the five defeats in that sequence, so it will depend which Remastered we see here. Forward Plan has finished in the frame in 9 of 10 chases, wining 4 times, but might need a run after seven months off, whereas Riskinthegorund was third of eleven at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, albeit at Class 3.

The Changing Man usually goes well on his seasonal bow and comes here off the back of a good runner-up finish at Uttoxeter back in March. He was only beaten by a length and a quarter that day, but 22 lengths clear of the pack, so if he improves upon that, he's in the mix, Mofasa's yard (Paul Nicholls) has won this race in four of the last seven years

And whilst Mofasa is no Frodon (the 2022 winner), he has shown some promise so far and will no doubt have been aimed at this one and the yard has a great record here just 9 miles from home. Lord Accord is also of note, finishing 431 over hurdles before winning here by 16 lengths in a course and distance chase three weeks ago, but he is up two classes today.

When I looked at chase place form over the last two years on Instant Expert, only three runners had 2 blocks of green under today's conditions...

...and although up in class here, Gustavian is 8lbs below his last winning mark, has been third in two of his last three starts and his yard (Anthony Honeyball) won this race last year, although stablemate Lord Baddesley is shorter in the market.

That said, front runners have done well over this track & trip and the head of the pace averages looks like this...

Overall, I still fancy the prospect of The Changing Man on his seasonal reappearance, but Remastered and Gustavian are longshots who might well outrun their odds. I'll take this trio but in a safety first approach also add Lord Accord at the expense of Forward Plan and Mofasa.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Clinton Lane & (4) Sorceleur

Leg 2: (1) Beau Balko & (3) Tedley

Leg 3: (2) Pretending, (10) Larchmont Lass & (11) Mermaids Cave

Leg 4: (3) Handstands & (4) Insurrection

Leg 5: (1) Rubaud & (3) Brentford Hope

Leg 6: (2) Remastered, (6) The Changing Man, (9) Lord Accord & (10) Gustavian

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Have a great weekend!
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 08/11/24

/in /by

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Exeter, Fontwell, Hexham & Newcastle

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The Exeter card is far too 'novice-y' for my liking, so I'll stay with Newcastle for a second day running with six races on standard Tapeta that kick off with...

Race 1 @ 3.28, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Walsingham is an 11-race maiden, but has made the frame in six of his last seven, Inversion was third over a mile here just over three weeks ago and Isle of Wolves' form since May reads 2221711. That's sparkling form of course, but we should remember that despite having a 50% place strike rate on the A/W, he has failed to win any of 24 attempts!

Life On The Rocks has four wins and two places from his last eight, Molinari's last three read 231 with a win over 1m4½f here last time out and Prince Achille has been a runner-up in two of his last three starts, including here over course and distance last time out.

There doesn't seem to be a huge draw bias at play here, although those drawn highest have fared slightly, but from a pace perspective, those sitting just off the pace in a prominent position have done best of all, so that's a positive for the likes of Inversion, Eeetee and Isle of Wolves...

...whilst the ones with the best relevant 2-year A/W form are...

(3) Isle of Wolves ticks all the boxes today, aside from not managing to win any of 24 on the A/W, but he should be good for a place. He does seem to always find at least one that's too good for him and that might well be the in-form (6) Molinari today. I then thought about adding Inversion as my third pick, but I think we'll get more value from taking (9) Prince Achille in case the race falls apart He ran well here over C&D ten days ago and his IE numbers are excellent.

Race 2 @ 4.03, a 6-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Nigel Tinkler runs three here with first-time visored and bottom weight Andalseeyagraham looking the weakest of the three after finishing last of ten, 9th of 10 and 11th of 12 so far. His other pair, (1) Lima Sierra and (5) Arias Dream have much better chances, though.

The former was third of six over 5f here a week ago, making ground late on in a 1.5 length defeat and 6f might suit her better off the same mark, whilst the latter was a runner-up here over course and distance three weeks ago, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

Only two of that field have raced since, but the fourth placed horse won here over 5f a week ago and the runner in eighth has since been a one-length runner-up at Southwell over 7f, so that form is working out well for Arias Dream.

This pair look the standouts here and they'd be the ones I'd take.

Race 3 @ 4.40, a 4-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Cash In has shown little in six starts on Turf so far and was two places and the best part of four lengths further back than the re-opposing Safanah at Catterick last month. Instant Bond was only beaten by three quarters of a length here over 6f a week ago, whilst Angel of Mathers' sole run to date saw her last home of six, beaten by over 40 lengths in the mud at Catterick three weeks ago.

On form, (2) Instant Bond is the pick of that trio, but it's a fairly low bar and the race could/should go to (4) Safanah, who is improving with each run, having finished 732 so far and ran well to finish as runner-up at Wolverhampton almost three weeks ago.

Race 4 @ 5.15, a 4-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Lincoln Legacy wears first-time blinkers after five disappointing runs since winning at Newmarket in August 2023, whereas Kristal Klear has finished 1212 in her last four with wins at Southwell and Wolverhampton over 7f and narrow defeats over the same trip at Haydock and at Southwell over a mile last time out.

Buttercross Flyer has won over course and distance, but that was back in August 2023, but he has been beaten in all 13 starts since and was last home (beaten by 15 lengths) over course and distance last time out, so it might well be that bottom weight (4) Keep Me Stable is the biggest threat to (2) Kristal Klear. Keep Me Stable has won 3 of 13 on the A/W, but she's 3 from 8 here at Newcastle and 3 from 6 over course and distance and she's only 2lbs higher than her last win from early September.

Race 5 @ 5.45, a 4-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m...

Tancredi was a runner-up on debut in a 5-runner contest over class course and distance here ten days ago, but was thirteen lengths behind the 1/6 fav My Cloud. That said, the third placed runner was a further 15 lengths behind Tancredi, so he was far from disgraced and should come on for the run. He'd definitely be my pick of the two with race experience over the mare Jolie Coeur Allen who makes her non-NH debut after making the frame in three of six over hurdles. She hasn't raced since July and I can't work out why she's here if truth be told.

Of the two debutants, both top weight Stoneacre (45,000 gns) and Sovereign Sea (50,000 gns) fetched similar money as yearlings, but the latter has since changed hands for €200,000 as 2yo and he's a half-brother to Point Nepean who won a £162k Listed race in Australia, whilst his dam was the sister of Steinbeck, a Group 3 winner over a mile, so on breeding and sale prices, I'd have him over Stoneacre.

I'll take one with experience, (3) Tancredi and a debutant, (2) Sovereign Sea here.

Race 6 @ 6.15, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Calafrio was a half-length runner-up over 6f at Southwell 18 days ago and suffered a similar fate over this course and distance a week ago, so should go well again here off just one pound higher. HK Fourteen is the form horse here if he runs, coming here on a hat-trick after wins by 4 lengths at Bath and by half a length here over 6f last night.

3yo filly Ninety Nine also won last time out, getting home by almost three lengths at Catterick at odds of 28/1. She was that price after half a dozen inadequate efforts that saw her mark drop by 14lbs and a 5lb rise makes this tougher and her record on the A/W is poor. Of the remainder, only Stallone made the frame last time out, going down by less than a length over course and distance 17 days ago. He has won over course and distance in the past and a similar run to LTO puts him in with a shout of placing again off the same mark, such is the lack of quality here!

The pace stats also suggest that a couple of those named above should be amongst the front-runners...

...whilst Instant Expert throws 5-time C&D winner Elzaal's name into the mix...

He hasn't won for 19 races stretching back to March 2023, but has dropped 16lbs in the process and showed some promising signs when beaten by two lengths here last time out coming off a 12-week break. He'd be a very unlikely winner, but if HK Fourteen doesn't line up, he could well make the frame. But I have to assume that (2) HK Fourteen will run and I'll take him along with (1) Calafrio here with the bigger priced (5) Stallone as backup and he might well be a reasonable shout as an E/W bet at odds of 18/1 or even higher with bookies paying four places.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Isle of Wolves, (6) Molinari & (9) Prince Achille

Leg 2: (1) Lima Sierra & (5) Arias Dream

Leg 3: (2) Instant Bond & (4) Safanah

Leg 4: (2) Kristal Klear & (4) Keep Me Stable

Leg 5: (2) Sovereign Sea & (3) Tancredi

Leg 6: (1) Calafrio, (2) HK Fourteen & (5) Stallone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck (we might need it!)
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 07/11/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Ludlow, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is offered at Newbury, but the fields are very small, so let's head to Newcastle where the Tapeta is said to be standard for our six races that kick off with...

Race 1 @ 2.10, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

11yo veteran Visitant was a runner-up at Redcar ten days ago and whilst beaten by 6.5 lengths that day, he's the only runner in this race to have made the frame last time out and it was his third silver medal in his last five starts, including one here over course and distance on this track he generally does well at.

Violeta and Stand Free both won here over course and distance on their penultimate runs, but were fifth and eighth respectively last time out. Keen Interest is a regular placer, having been in the first three home in six of his last seven and whilst Eva Rosie is a 13-race (10 on A/W) maiden, she made the frame in her first five runs this year, but was disappointing at Wolverhampton last month.

These five would be my shortlist in what looks a pretty weak affair, but the trio I prefer are (1) Violeta, (4) Visitant & (6) Keen Interest

Race 2 @ 2.45, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Jkr Cobbler has been second and then first over course and distance in his last two outings and hosed home by more than four lengths last time out. Drakeholes and Tickets were the first two home here over track & trip 2 days ago with the former prevailing by a neck but he's now up 5lbs and Tickets has a 3lb claimer on board. Tickets was also a course and distance winner two starts ago and although both Commander Crouch and Rajawail were placed third on their last runs, it's Jkr Cobbler, Tickets & Drakeholes bringing the best form to the table, although Commander Crouch's 2-year numbers are decent enough...

Drakeholes, Concert Boy & Tickets seem to have the best of the draw in boxes 6 to 8...

...whilst tucking in behind the leader should also help Tickets today...

(1) Jkr Cobbler comes here off the best recent effort, (4) Tickets ticks plenty of boxes above and is fairly closely matched to/with (6) Drakeholes, so I'll take these three.

NOTE Tickets was withdrawn whilst I was writing the column, so I'm replacing that pick with (5) Commander Crouch

Race 3 @ 3.20, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice over 1m...

Half of this field have yet to race, but top weight One Eye Jack won at Haydock by a head on debut almost six weeks. Fort George and San Munoz both finished fourth on debut just over three weeks ago and White Crown Star improved upon his 7th of 13 opener to finish third of ten at Yarmouth seven weeks ago.

Of the debutants, Yaa Min is the most interesting, he's a Frankel colt out of Wonderful Filly and cost 370,000 Guineas as a foal. He's also a half-brother to several winners including German winner Wonderful Moon.

Yaa Min certainly has the breeding to go well here, but I'm sticking with those with previous experience of that half dozen with a prior run, I'm taking (1) One Eye Jack, (3) Fort George & (11) White Crown Star

Race 4 @ 3.55, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Chesneys Charm has won three of his last six including a 7f nursery five weeks ago and drops in class today, Sands of Indi steps up in class and has yet to win after three starts but was a runner-up in each of her first two, including going down by a neck here over 7f two months ago, whilst Pivotal Days got off the mark at the fifth time of asking, landing a 7f nursery on heavy ground at Haydock three weeks ago, but he also steps up in class here.

Space Raider makes both a handicap and an A/W debut after making the frame just once in four outings, but Shielas Well comes here on a hat-trick after 1m wins last month here at Newcastle and then at Musselburgh and her nursery record reads 22511. She's the sole course and distance winner here, but is up two classes. Bottom weight Anthropologist looks the most vulnerable here, having yet to make the frame in seven starts.

(1) Chesneys Charm has the pick of the limited A/W form available...

...and with a low draw and a fondness to just get on with things, he's my first pick here along with his in-form stablemate (5) Shielas Well, who although up in the ratings again, does get weight from most of her rivals and she might still be better than a mark of 67

Race 5 @ 4.30, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A competitive looking contest here where top weight Muker has two silvers from his last three starts and drops down a class here. Looking For Lynda has been third in two of his last four, whilst Curious Rover won his penultimate race and both he and Looking for Lynda are down two classes.

Course and distance winner Jenever is also down a level here, but was only 11th of 14 here last time out, but True Promise was a runner-up here over 6f beaten by just three quarters of a length five weeks ago, before winning over 6f at Southwell next/last time out looking to have plenty in hand. Bottom weight Ecclesiastical also drops back in class after toiling in the Nottingham mud last time out, but he did win over 5f at Wolverhampton two starts ago.

A straight 5f generally lends itself to early/consistent speed and the field's recent pace scores...

...make life tough for Jenever and Muker. True Promise's hopes are backed up by a stack of stats...

and he's the standout on relevant wins...

...so (5) True Promise is my main hope here and I'll supplement the pick with front-runner (2) Looking For Lynda who runs off his last winning mark on what will be just his second A/W run.

Race 6 @ 5.05, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A favourable high draw puts a tick alongside the names of Strong Johnson, Azucena, Castan and Gustav Graves, whilst a straight 5f needs early pace, which is another positive for Strong Johnson as well as Delagate The Lord and Bibendum...

Strong Johnson. however, hasn't won since scoring over course and distance exactly a year ago off 12lbs higher, but has shown signs of coming back to form, making the frame in four of his last six. Delagate The Lord has placed in each of his last two and Castan was third last time out.

Darlo Pride and Bibendum both come here after solid runner-up efforts and the former has a 2 in 3 place strike rate from 21 A/W starts. Bottom weight Azucena was a winner on her penultimate outing and she has already won over today's course and distance, as have Strong Johnson (of course), Castan, Gustav Graves and Let's Go Hugo.

Despite his lack of recent wins, I still think (1) Strong Johnson has a great chance of making the frame here. (8) Darlo Pride did so last time out and does so more often than not, whilst (5) Castan has been mentioned a few times above and might be better than his current odds would suggest.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Violeta, (4) Visitant & (6) Keen Interest

Leg 2: (1) Jkr Cobbler, (4) Tickets (5) Commander Crouch & (6) Drakeholes

Leg 3: (1) One Eye Jack, (3) Fort George & (11) White Crown Star

Leg 4: (1) Chesneys Charm & (5) Shielas Well

Leg 5: (2) Looking For Lynda & (5) True Promise

Leg 6: (1) Strong Johnson, (5) Castan & (8) Darlo Pride

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!i
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 06/11/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chepstow, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Kempton, but I don't much fancy the card, so I'm heading North to Musselburgh for six races on good to soft ground starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.35, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Sole LTO winner Profiteer comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of soft ground wins at Pontefract in the last month and whilst he has been raised 3lbs for his latest win, he does drop two classes here. We looked at (and selected) Kyber Crystal at Catterick eight days and she obliged finishing second on soft ground and she has now made the frame in six of her last nine, winning twice.

Sixcor was a course and distance winner on his last turf outing, but he's now 6lbs higher and needs to bounce back from an indifferent run at Newcastle last time out. Mrs Bagerran should know this track well, her last six races have all been over this track and trip producing a win and four other top-three finishes, whilst Royal Duke was a course and distance runner-up here in September, before going on to win here in early October. He seemed to fade late on last time out, though and that might have just been because he'd had four races in less than a month, so his short 23-day break might help here.

Instant Expert leaves the door open for several of them here...

Somewhat unusually for a straight 5f, there does seem to be a bit of a draw bias going on here...

...which is good for Kyber Crystal, Profiteer and Zaphea, whilst as you'd expect, early pace is absolutely key here...

And the pace/draw heat map seals (1) Profiteer & (7) Mrs Bagerran as Tix picks here

...to which I'll also add the consistent (5) Kyber Crystal

Race 2 @ 1.05, an 11-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden over 7f...

So, all bar Princess Pw have had a run. Master Technician has made the frame in each of his last two starts, as has Storm The Dug with the latter doing so over course and distance on both occasions. Tattie Bogle was very popular in the market on debut at Southwell a week ago, going off as a 5/2 fav, but ran into a really promising type and had to settle for second best. That said, it was a good effort and a similar one puts her in contention here.

And to be honest, they're the three that I think are most likely to succeed here. (2) Master Technician edges it on form and has the high draw, (3) Storm The Dug has ran well twice over course and distance & (8) Tattie Bogle showed plenty to like on debut and is likely to race prominently.

Race 3 @ 1.35, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m...

Shimmering Sands was a runner-up at Southwell last time out, unluckily bumping into a progressive 3yo winning for the third time in six starts, but Shimmering has made the frame in each of his ,last four (3232) and runs off an unchanged mark. Bint Al Karama races for just the second time but was very comfortable when scoring by more than 3 lengths in a seller here over 1m1f five weeks ago. She pretty much made all that day and a similar run should be plenty here.

Code Purple is 13172 from his last five with both wins coming on this track (7f & 1m1f) and he was second of ten here over 7f just over three weeks ago. Ayr Poet won over course and distance on his last turf run, whilst Beltane and Cisco Disco were both runners-up last time out. So, plenty have chances here and most of those mentioned score well on Instant Expert...

The horse in stall 8 is now a non-runner, so Shimmering Sands & Bint Al Karama get the highest draw and of those with more than one run under their belts, course specialist Code Purple has the highest average pace score...

...so it's (boringly predictably) (1) Shimmering Sands, (2) Bint Al Karama & (4) Code Purple for me here. Ayr Poet might put a shift in, but does need to bounce back from some poor efforts of late, even if he did win over C&D two starts ago.

Race 4 @ 2.05, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m...

Silent Move's last race at this level saw him win at Haydock back in May and he can be forgiven for finishing in mid-division back there next/last time out stepped up in class. he ran well for much of the race before weakening late on. A rest, a drop back in class and quicker ground could well push him back into the winners' enclosure here. He's also proven at class/trip.

Spun To Gold looks the most vulnerable here having been 8th of 13, 10th of 13 and then last of ten in his last three, so we'll overlook him. Quiet Resolve is Silent Move's stablemate and looks like the second string here. He has been third in each of his last two, but both on the tapeta at Southwell, a surface where he seems to fare best as his turf form reads 5805.

Bottom weight Etretat is the only LTO winner here, but that too was on the A/W (Chelmsford) and not only is he up 4lbs for the win, he also has no 5lb claimer on his back here, but that said he does have wily Joe Fanning in the saddle, he still gets weight all round and was a half-length runner-up on his last turf run.

Recent pace scores look like this...

...and whilst I could just take all three for safety, I'm just going to go with (1) Silent Move & (4) Etretat here.

Race 5 @ 2.35, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

A pretty open affair here with several in good nick. Inanna drops in class and steps up in trip after finishing 7th of 11 here over 5f three weeks ago, but prior to that run she had finished 321212 in her previous six. Darbucks comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Ayr and Redcar and although up 3lbs, talented claimer Kaiya Fraser negates that rise.

Roman Harry (Laytown, 7f) and Golden Valour (here over track/trip) both won last time out and the latter has made the frame in each of his last three, whilst Rebeccas Girl might be better than her last of nine at Hamilton six weeks ago might suggest. She was forced out wide and got no run, but had finished 2123 in her pervious four runs and has been eased a pound here and will wear first-time cheekpieces.

Meanwhile, my list of runner with at least two greens on Instant Expert for going, class, course and distance includes four of those mentioned above...

Golden Valour & Rebeccas Girl are also drawn high and the latter features prominently on the recent pace averages...

It's a tough one to call here, but I'm trying to cover a few bases by taking four runners ie all three LTO winners (6) Darbucks, (7) Roman Harry & (8) Golden Valour. I'm then adding (10) Rebeccas Girl at the expense of Inanna, because I think there's more value in the former and Purple Martini's recent form is a turn-off, but she has it within her to go well here.

Race 6 @ 3.10, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Tilsitt was third of twelve at Ayr four weeks ago and he's the only runner in this race to have made the frame last time out. He was half a length in front of Savrola that day, who had to come from a long way off the pace to get anywhere near. Savrolas has always looked like needing further than 1m2f and this step up in trip might suit him.

Spartan Warrior was only fifth of eight at Haydock when last seen, but had won his previous two. The runner-up that day at Haydock has since finished 2212 in four subsequent starts and the third placed horse went on to win at Yarmouth next time out, so the race is working out well. Elsewhere Rory The Cat would be of interest now that he drops back in trip. He was beaten by less than 4 lengths over 2m here last month, but won here over 1m6f in August and was a runner-up beaten by just a neck over the same track/trip in early October.

And it's Spanish Hustle, Spartan Warrior and Rory The Cat who have the best two-year records under today's conditions...

...and with this trio also looking good on our pace/draw heat map...

...it's (1) Spanish Hustle, (3) Spartan Warrior & (6) Rory the Cat who find themselves on my Tix ticket builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Profiteer, (5) Kyber Crystal & (7) Mrs Bagerran

Leg 2: (2) Master Technician, (3) Storm The Dug & (8) Tattie Bogle

Leg 3: (1) Shimmering Sands, (2) Bint Al Karama & (4) Code Purple

Leg 4: (1) Silent Move & (4) Etretat

Leg 5: (6) Darbucks, (7) Roman Harry, (8) Golden Valour & (10) Rebeccas Girl

Leg 6: (1) Spanish Hustle, (3) Spartan Warrior & (6) Rory the Cat

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 05/11/24

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No post yesterday (Monday), sorry, I was called away to deal with a family matter at 0730 that ended up taking most of the day to resolve, but we go again now for Tuesday, where the UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newcastle, Redcar, Sedgefield and Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The going is expected to be soft at Redcar, let's head there for six races beginning with...

Race 1 @ 12.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Four of this eleven have yet to race so far and of those who have, Binraheer's course and distance win a month ago on soft ground is the highlight and he drops in class today. Wizard of Odds also won on his last Turf run, landing a maiden on good ground at Down Royal back in July, whilst Magellan Cloud drops back a furlong and is down three classes after a decent effort to finish third at York on soft ground 24 days ago.

Of the newcomers, Lord Capulet is the most interesting, he's a half brother to Rosallion, a dual Group 1 winner this summer and his dam is an unraced sister to Group 2 winner Ostilio. He holds an entry to next year's Irish 2000 Guineas and I think I'll take (6) Lord Capulet here along with (1) Binraheer and (7) Magellan Cloud from the opener.

Race 2 @ 12.50, an 8-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 1m...

Say What You See absolutely bolted up on his nursery debut at Newcastle four days ago, coming home eight lengths clear and is probably well in at the weights here despite a 6lbs penalty (he'll go up by more, I think), whilst Law Degree has finished 3313 in his last four outings, including a soft ground win at Ripon in September and a very good third last out at Doncaster two classes higher than today.

Al Waseela could only manage 6th of 10 at Newcastle after being raised 6lbs for a win at Yarmouth which followed 2 narrow defeats (both by a neck) as a runner-up at Chelmsford and Leicester. She clearly has some ability, but a mark of 64 might be beyond her right now and my shortlist is completed by Aye Up Lass who ran really well when facing soft ground for the first time a fortnight ago, staying on to finish 3rd of 9, less than two lengths off the pace.

(2) Law Degree has won two of four and placed once on soft ground, so he's in with (1) Say What You See after that easy win LTO and with Al Waseela looking anchored by the assessor, I'll add (4) Aye Up Lass to the other two picks.

Race 3 @ 1.25, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m6f...

King's Scholar has looked like needing further for a while and was a ready winner by over 4 lengths when upped to 1m4f at Catterick (soft) last time out. He seemed to have plenty left and should handle the extra quarter mile here no problem as he drops in class. Gastronomy was third, but possibly found 2m½f a bit much at Newcastle last time out and will prefer the switch back to turf, where he has a win (here over course and distance) and two places from his last four runs, all at today's trip.

Bottom-weight Red Derek has made the frame in each of his last two outings and loves soft (or worse) ground finishing 3271223 on his last seven on soft/heavy ground. He doesn't win often (2/45!) and is up in class, but will love the going and receivers bundles of weight all round. Kitsune Power drops in class here and was 3rd of 8 at Ayr recently on his last turf run two classes higher than today and di win over today's trip at Class 4 in the summer.

Our pace/draw heat map suggests a potentially falsely run race which will suit Kitsune Power, Gastronomy and King's Scholar from my shortlist...

...and all four show well on Instant Expert...

...but with reservations over Gastronomy on soft ground, I'm taking (2) Kitsune Power, (3) King's Scholar & (7) Red Derek here.

Race 4 @ 2.00, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f...

On form alone, I'm drawn initially towards Liberty Coach, who is 112 in his last three and he has a 3lbs weight allowance as a 3yo, as does Deboras Dream who had finished in the first three home in 8 of his 11 starts (3 wins) before only managing 5th of 8 over a mile here last time out and I fear the step up to 1m2f won't help today.

Loyal Touch never got involved on heavy ground at Nottingham three weeks ago, but did win at Pontefract over this trip on his penultimate outing, whilst both Real Terms and Poets Dawn were recently runners-up. Low draws do well here so that's good news for Debora's Dream, Have Secret and Liberty Coach, whilst those willing to get on with things do get rewarded, so that's a positive for Debora's Dream, Liberty Coach and Poet's Dawn with our pace/draw heat map looking like this...

Instant Expert points to Loyal Touch, Liberty Coach, Bust A Move and Poet's Dawn having conditions in their favour

...so I'm definitely with (5) Liberty Coach here and I think I'll supplement the pick with (2) Debora's Dream & (8) Poet's Dawn in what looks a pretty open race.

Race 5 @ 2.34, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

No LTO winners here, but Belsito, Thornaby Pearl, White Umbrella and Blue Jay Way all finished in the first three home. As you'd expect over 6f, those on the front end do well here, highlighting the chances of...

...whilst these draw stats...

...could be good news for...

...whilst Instant Expert says...

...giving me on countback (2) Eldeyaar, (3) Belsito and (4) Thornaby Pearl in another race where you could make a case for three or four more.

Race 6 @ 3.09, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 7f...

Again, none of these managed to win last time out, but fast-finisher 3yo Pals Batallion won two starts ago, whilst Red Mirage, Temper Trap and Ey Up It's Jazz all had top-three finishes last time.

Temper Trap has been running consistently well and in the last three months has finished 2221142 with wins on both soft and heavy ground. Bottom weight Ey Up It's Jazz hasn't been quite as successful, but has still made the frame five times in the same timeframe with results reading 2428232. Both of these in-form runners drop in class here, as does top weight Red Mirage and Temper trap is the only previous course and distance winner in the pack.

Pals Batallion has the pick of the draw in stall 1, but Ey Up It's Jazz and Red Mirage are the likely pace-setters

...with the former having the best form under these conditions over the last two years..

I've got to take both (7) Temper Trap and (9) Ey Up It's Jazz here and I've a slight preference for (1) Red Mirage over Pals Batallion.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Binraheer, (6) Lord Capulet & (7) Magellan Cloud

Leg 2: (1) Say What You See, (2) Law Degree & (4) Aye Up Lass

Leg 3: (2) Kitsune Power, (3) King's Scholar & (7) Red Derek

Leg 4: (2) Debora's Dream, (5) Liberty Coach & (8) Poet's Dawn

Leg 5: (2) Eldeyaar, (3) Belsito and (4) Thornaby Pearl

Leg 6: (1) Red Mirage, (7) Temper Trap & (9) Ey Up It's Jazz

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 02/11/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ascot, Ayr, Newmarket, Southwell & Wetherby

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And despite a truly terrible day on Friday, I feel compelled to have another go at the day's biggest pot, which therefore takes us to Ascot for six races on good ground starting with...

Race 1 at 12.55, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f...

Don't Tell Su was 5th of 15 on debut in a bumper at Warwick at the end of 2022 and has finished 123212 since, Katate Dori drops in class after four third placed finishes on the bounce, Hell Hound won at Southwell in early June and ran a commendable third of eleven on his seasonal reappearance at this grade four weeks ago.

Easter Icon won on handicap debut at Fontwell at the end of August, whilst Star of Affinity defied a five-month break to win at Exeter just over three weeks ago. Ballytechno also won last time out, landing a Class 4 maiden at Huntingdon 25 days ago and my Instant Expert ones to consider would be...

Previous past races have suited prominent/front running types, which should benefit...

...and with this pair being on my preview and the Instant Expert graphic, they both go on my ticket builder, to which I'll add Hell Hound, who was far from disgraced on his hat-trick attempt last time out, finishing third after a four month layoff. The horse in fourth that day has since finished second at Plumpton, whilst the horse in eighth has returned to Fontwell and won.

Race 2 at 1.30, a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Novice Handicap Chase over 2m3½f...

Bhaloo brings the best form to the table and if converting that hurdling form to the larger obstacles should go well here, whilst Samarrive was second of flour here, beaten by less than two lengths over course and distance last time out. That was almost a year ago, but did come off the back of a seven month break, so he does go well first up and has a win and four places from his last six starts.

Bottom weight Leader In The Park looks the better of the two Ben Pauling runners and drops in class for his chase debut. He did win his sole PTP outing by 56 lengths and cost his owners £250k and an opening mark of 121 might prove to be very lenient.

Bad is an 8-race maiden and What path is winless in ten, so I'll disregard that pair and of the other trio, I think I have a marginal preference for (3) Bhaloo & (5) Leader In The Park over Samarrive, especially Ben Pauling's record here...

Race 3 at 2.05, a 10-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3½f...

Master Chewy has made the frame in 5 of 7 over fences and was a runner-up beaten by just a head at grade 1 last time out, Malystic is 10 yrs old but hasn't given up just yet, placing in each of his last three and also went down by a head as runner-up last time out, but he is up in class here, as is Matterhorn whose run of four successive chase wins from his first four attempts was ended when pulled up at Newton Abbot in August.

Saint Segal would be an unlikely winner after eight losses on the bounce, but always tends to be there or thereabouts (50% place strike rate from 16 starts!) and was third in this race last year off 2lbs higher than today. Martator has yet to finish out of the first three in eight efforts over fences and comes here off the back of three straight wins, including one over course and distance, whilst bottom weight Frere D'Armes looks like getting back to his old form after making the frame in his last two outings, going down by just a length at Kempton a fortnight ago. This is tougher from out of the handicap though and here's how all six have fared under these conditions over the last couple of years from both a win and a place perspective...

...and with the pace chart also favouring (4) Matterhorn and (7) Martator...

...I'll take this pair along with (1) Master Chewy, who I think is probably the 'best' horse in the race and backed up by a couple of interesting stats...

Race 4 at 2.35, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Novice Hurdle over 2m3½f...

Illegal D'Ainay won a Class 4 maiden hurdle last time out but steps up in class after six months off, Beylerbeyi also won last time out, but that was a 1m1½f A/W handicap at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago, also at Class 4 and after 22 races on the Flat/AW at that trip or shorter now starts a hurdling career.

Clap Of Thunder made his hurdles bow at Chepstow three weeks ago after a 194-day absence and was a modest 4th of 11, but should improve for the run. Tackletommywoo has been third on both bumper starts before today, but the one to beat here has to be Tripoli Flyer, if he overcomes a near 7 month layoff on his hurdles debut. He landed a £21k Class 2 bumper at Lingfield in January before a one-length defeat as runner-up to stablemate Horaces Pearl (who was completing a hat-trick) in a Grade 2, 18-runner bumper worth £28k at the Liverpool Festival. Anything like that will be more than good enough here.

(7) Tripoli Flyer is the obvious pick here, especially with his jockey's record at this venue...

...and I'll supplement that pick by also taking a chance on (1) Illegal D'Ainay.

NOTE Tripoli Flyer was withdrawn whilst I was writing the column, so I added Clap of Thunder at the last minute.

Race 5 at 3.15, a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f...

In card order, I'd narrowed the field down to six runners using my own ratings and race parameters ie (1) Our Champ, (3) Fiercely Proud, (5) Afadil, (8) Secret Squirrel, (9) Tapley and (11) Break My Soul and I'm going to focus on these.

Our Champ probably needed the run at Market Rasen LTO after 164 days off, but did win a Class 2 handicap at Plumpton back in March. Fiercely Proud hasn't raced since going down by 9 lengths at Sandown on April, but showed enough ability to be a Grade 2 runner-up two starts ago.

Afadil looked rusty when returning from five months off at Chepstow last month, but he did finish 331 from late November last year after an indifferent seasonal reappearance and was only beaten by 4 lengths when 5th of 17 in a Class 1 handicap at the Cheltenham Festival this year before finishing 3rd of 19 at the Liverpool Festival and 4th of 15 in the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April, beaten by just a length having been carried right by the third placed horse. It was a cracking run after two big races in the previous five weeks and if getting close to last spring's form would be a real danger here.

Secret Squirrel rarely runs a bit bad race and can be forgiven a 7 length defeat last time out having finished 1112241 in his other career outings. He made a mistake at the last at Sandown when last seen and would have been much closer otherwise, so he has a live chance here, especially after winning off the back of a 220-day absence last November.

Tapley has made the frame in 11 of 17 (64.7%) over hurdles, winning four times including last time out at Plumpton a fortnight ago. That was only at Class 4, but was also his comeback run after 163 days off following a 2nd of 15 in a Class 1 handicap at Haydock and his record over the last year reads 134213421.

Break My Soul will step up two classes here as she seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins over hurdles after scoring at Chepstow and Fontwell. She was third of nine at Newbury on her only handicap run and was third of eleven at that same venue on her sole Class 2 contest when making her debut a tear ago. Her entire career form reads 32311 and she did win an 11-runner contest at Chepstow by 25 lengths two starts ago.

Instant Expert for this half dozen looks like this...

and their 'recent' pace scores are as follows...

Now, I really like Afadil as a horse, but if I'm following the process, he's the weakest on both IE and pace and as much as I think Fiercely Proud has a great chance here, he doesn't score as well as the others on both counts either. I also have some reservations about his temperament, he had to be withdrawn at Cheltenham last week after unseating his jockey and getting loose. If he behaves himself and gets away with the others, he could well win, but I'm not convinced he won't play up, so I'll reluctantly omit him and take the other four; (1) Our Champ, (8) Secret Squirrel, (9) Tapley and (11) Break My Soul

Race 6 at 3.45, an 11-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3½f...

(1) Chianti Classico was 1121 in 3m/3m1f chases last season culminating in a Class 1 handicap win at the Cheltenham Festival before tackling a Grade 1 at Aintree. That proved to be a bit strong for him, but he ran with credit, going down by 8 lengths. (8) Neon Moon ended last season by winning at Newbury and then finishing third of eight at Kempton before taking 159 days off. He then reappeared at Chepstow three weeks ago and despite running from 4lbs out of the handicap, managed to win by a length and a half.

(9) Highstakesplayer ended his hurdles campaign by finishing 3112. Since then his chase record reads 111P1 and although not seen since April, he won in February after 458 days off and also in October 2022 after 227 days off, (10) Mylesfromwicklow likes to lead from the front and has made the frame in six of eight (2 wins) over fences and was only beaten by a length and a half last time out, whilst (11) Hidden Depths has won three of his last five and has been kept running throughout the British 'summer'. he comes here seeking a hat-trick, but this does represent a fairly big step up in class.

Neon Moon doesn't look quite as good as the others on both Instant Expert and the pace profile, whilst Hidden Depth also struggles from a pace perspective and might well be out of his depth (sorry!) with the rise in class...

...leaving me with (1) Chianti Classico, (9) Highstakesplayer & (10) Mylesfromwicklow for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Don't Tell Su, (2) Katate Dori & (7) Hell Hound

Leg 2: (3) Bhaloo & (5) Leader In The Park

Leg 3: (1) Master Chewy, (4) Matterhorn and (7) Martator

Leg 4: (1) Illegal D'Ainay & (7) Tripoli Flyer (3) Clap Of Thunder

Leg 5: (1) Our Champ, (8) Secret Squirrel, (9) Tapley and (11) Break My Soul

Leg 6: (1) Chianti Classico, (9) Highstakesplayer & (10) Mylesfromwicklow

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone and I hope you all have a great weekend!
Chris

2024 Ladbrokes Champion Chase Trends

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Staged at Down Royal racecourse in Ireland this Saturday’s (2nd November 2024) Ladbrokes Champion Chase (formerly the JNwine.com Chase) always attracts some of the best chasers from both England and Ireland.

Run over 3m the Grade 1 contest has been won by greats such as Kauto Star, Beef Or Salmon, Looks Like Trouble and Florida Pearl in the past.

With top UK trainer Paul Nicholls winning 5 of the last 17 renewals then anything he sends across the Irish Sea should be respected, while the powerful Gordon Elliott camp have also saddled four of the last 9 winners.

Elliott and Nicholls are the joint-winning trainers - both with five successes.

While it's a race the Gigginstown House Stud horses have done very well in recently - they've won the race seven times since 2013.

Here at GEEGEEZ.co.uk we are on hand with all the key stats head of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Saturday 2nd November 2024

Recent Ladbrokes Champion Chase Winners

2023 - GERRI COLOMBE (4/7 fav)
2022 - ENVOI ALLEN (7/2)
2021 - FRODON (3/1)
2020 - THE STORYTELLER (9/2)
2019 – ROAD TO RESPECT (5/2)
2018 – ROAD TO RESPECT (6/4 fav)
2017 – OUTLANDER (16/1)
2016 – VALSEUR LIDO (2/1 fav)
2015 – DON COSSACK (2/11 fav)
2014 – ROAD TO RICHES (9/2)
2013 – ROI du MEE (12/1)
2012 – KAUTO STONE (4/1)
2011 – QUITO de la ROQUE (11/4 fav)
2010 – KAUTO STAR (4/7 fav)
2009 – THE LISTENER (7/1)
2008 – KAUTO STAR (2/5 fav)
2007 – TARANIS (10/11 fav)
2006 – BEEF OR SALMON (11/4)
2005 – No Race
2004 – BEEF OR SALMON (Evs)
2003 – GLENELLY GALE (7/1)
2002 – MORE THAN A STROLL (20/1)
2001 – FOXCHAPEL KING (4/1)

Ladbrokes Champion Chase Betting Trends

20/22 – Had won at least a Grade 2 Chase before
18/22 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
17/22 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
16/22 – Aged 8 or older
16/22 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had won a Grade 1 Chase before
14/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/22 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or more
12/22 – Having their first run of the season
11/22 – Had run at Down Royal before
10/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won by a Gigginstown House Stud-owned horse (7 winners since 2013)
7/22 – Won their last race
6/22– Raced at Aintree last time out
5/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/22 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (4 of the last 9)
4/22 – Raced at Limerick last time out
Henry De Bromhead has won 2 of the last 7
The last 13 winners aged 9 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

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Tix Picks, Friday 01/11/24

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Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newcastle, Newmarket, Uttoxeter & Wetherby

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with the biggest pot offered at Wetherby, where the going will be good for a fixture that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.45, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m4f...

Battle Born Lad's withdrawal this morning probably hands the race to French import Kart D'Estruval on his UK debut. he comes here after finishing third on debut, beaten by less than 3 lengths over 2m2f at Fontainebleau and then winning over the same track and trip. His handlers, the Skeltons, have also won this race in 2020 and 2023 and this looks like a third win in five years for them.

I Play County progressed well in three bumpers, finishing 4th of 18, then 3rd of 7 before a win at Taunton last time out and he'll probably be the main challenger here if taking to hurdles.

After this pair, it's a fairly mediocre field, although The Geordie Ginge has five top-three finishes from his last six races. He might be worth a very small E/W punt, but he's not going on my ticket builder!

It's just (2) Kart D'Estruval & (4) I Play County for me.

Leg 2 @ 1.15, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice chase over 3m½f...

Cadell was 2/2 in PTP races before finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper run. He won on hurdling debut 13 months ago and was a runner-up in two of four subsequent races prior to a six length defeat on his chasing bow five weeks ago. That came after a 200-day absence, so he should strip fitter here.

Edison Kent won over hurdles in June, but is 09586 since and now reverts back to fences for only the second time since being pulled up at Huntingdon on Boxing Day last year. This will be his seventh chase contest and with a previous form line of 9543P5, I'm not expecting much as he steps up in class.

Farnoge, however, drops two classes for his chase debut. A winner on his bumper debut in March '23 and then a winner of his first two efforts over hurdles in October/November of that year, he was subsequently pulled up in a Grade 1 at Newbury and then at Class 2 at Musselburgh, before ending the season third of six, beaten by just seven lengths in a Listed race at Perth. That kind of run is needed here, but he might be rusty after 191 days off the track.

West Balboa does have one chase run under her belt, even if it was a disappointing effort as she finished 4th of 5 some 12 lengths down at Worcester just over a fortnight ago after being sent of at the 2/5 fav. In her defence, it was her chase debut and came after a six month absence from the track. She was that short in the market because her previous outing saw her finish 3rd of 21 in a Class 1 handicap hurdle at the Liverpool Festival in April for a seventh place (3 wins) from ten starts over the smaller obstacles. I suspect she'll come on for both the run and the experience and be the one to beat here ahead of Farnoge who I marginally prefer to Cadell.

Leg 3 @ 1.50, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

All bar Isle of Sark and Luckie Seven come here off the back of over five months away from the track and whilst the former is the only one in the field without a win in their last seven races, he has been a runner-up in two of his last four over hurdles including going down by just a head at Sedgefield a month ago on his last run, but fellow handicap debutant Luckie Seven is the form horse here. Yet to finish out of the first two home, he was 212 in bumpers and has won both starts over hurdles including one over today's trip.

Singapore Trip also won over a similar distance last time out after previously finishing third three times in four races taking advantage of not running on mud to score at Perth back in May, whilst Welsh Charger's 9th of 11 last time out doesn't negate his previous good form. He had stepped up two classes for that run, but now drops back in class and prior to that last run, his hurdling form read 2121411.

And my shortlist is completed by Kaituna River, whose form (631) has shown progression culminating in a three length success over this trip at Plumpton seven months ago. This seems tougher up in class and with he and Welsh Charger coming off the longest absences, I'm inclined to go with (4) Isle of Sark, (5) Singapore Trip & (6) Luckie Seven today in a race where any of the five I mentioned could win!

Leg 4 @ 2.25, a 7-runner, 3yo listed juvenile hurdle over 2m...

On his hurdling debut, Liam Swagger beat Torrent by just over four lengths at Market Rasen last time out with Model Approach a half length further back in third, but Torrent is now some 11lbs better off with the winner and 8lbs better off with Model Approach, who has actually raced twice since that contest, winning both times at Sedgefield and then at Kempton 12 days ago.

For the record, Torrent's form over hurdles stands at 1212 and you'd suspect that under normal conditions that it would be easy to just throw all three onto my Tix ticket builder. However, there are other to consider, like French import Static who is 2/2 over fences in France and made the frame on four (2 wins) of five over hurdles. Denzil's sole outing to date was a three-runner hurdle at Stratford where he made all to win by 55 lengths. Play Pretend won on debut at Market Rasen back in June and was third of six over today's course and distance last time out and Irish runner Inspire Hope has finished 2142 in her four efforts over hurdles, beaten by just half a length last time out.

This course/distance/going has rewarded front-runners and I suspect we might see a bit of a burn-up early doors today...

...with the possibility of Play Pretend being left adrift. He's also up three classes here after a six length defeat. Denzil is also up three classes after winning a poor race by 55 lengths, where the runner-up has since gone down by 70 lengths and I suspect this race is too good for Torrent.

I do like the look of the French runner Static if he can bring that form with him, Liam Swagger seems an obvious pick on results so far and with Model Approach closely matched to him and in grat form, that's my trio here.

Leg 5 @ 3.00, a 5-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m3½f...

A really interesting race with five fairly evenly matched candidates. Heltenham is the one I'd cross off first though. He looks second string of the Skelton runners based on jockey bookings and hold-up horses have struggled to score over this course and distance...

...with stablemate Midnight River the standout on Instant Expert...

He fell last time out, though in the Coral Gold Cup, but showed his undoubted talent when landing a Class 1 race at the Liverpool Festival. Galop de Chasse won last time out after a seven-month absence, so I'm not overly concerned about his recent lay-off. Prairie Wolf was 314113 over fences last season and has had a pipe-opener here over hurdles recently tog et the legs going again, whilst Genois' chasing form is probably the weakest on offer here. He has yet to win any of 15 attempts and although he makes the frame fairly regularly, I prefer the other three to him.

I wouldn't normally take three from five, but this one looks too tricky call, so I will take three! (1) Midnight River, (3) Prairie Wolf & (4) Galop de Chasse.

Leg 6 @ 3.35, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m5½f...

I suspect the top half of the card is where the money will go today. Queen's Venture still looks ahead of the assessor as she aims to make it 3 /3 in handicap company after two wins in the last three weeks and the trip won't be an issue. Bitsnbuckles won on handicap debut back in January and shaped well on his return after a break to finish fourth at Market Rasen recently.

Sauce of Life is a strange one, he won both bumpers and was second and third in his first two hurdles races, but that was all in 2021 before an 853 day absence to finish 8th of 14 at Market Rasen in March of this year and then another six month break before reappearing to finish fourth of mine at Perth just over five weeks ago. If he comes on for that run, he could be dangerous based on old form, whilst Knacker Trapper won three starts ago and was only beaten by a neck when runner-up at Sedgefield three weeks ago on his own seasonal reappearance.

Instant Expert doesn't give us much but does point towards the top of the card again...

...and these stats also make a fairly compelling case for Queen's Venture...

...so he's in and I'll take a chance on the lightly raced Sauce of Life.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Kart D'Estruval & (4) I Play County

Leg 2: (3) Farnoge & (4) West Balboa

Leg 3: (4) Isle of Sark, (5) Singapore Trip & (6) Luckie Seven

Leg 4: (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Static & (4) Model Approach

Leg 5: (1) Midnight River, (3) Prairie Wolf & (4) Galop de Chasse

Leg 6: (1) Queen's Venture & (3) Sauce of Life

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

It could well be boom or bust here, so good luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 31/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Bath, Chelmsford, Newcastle, Stratford & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Southwell, where the tapeta is said to be 'standard', so let's look at the first six of a bumper none race card that begins with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m3f...

Achillea won over 1m2f at Chelmsford four weeks ago, but the 4yo Caramay is the form horse coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton in early September and then here over today's course and distance a fortnight ago, taking her form this year to 152611 since returning from a seven-month break.

D Day Arvalenreena has made the frame in four of her last five, Aim For The Moon has a win and a place from her last five, Carpathian's last five include a win and two places and Fillyfudge's last four 1434 and with Shady Bay finishing third on her second outing, you can make a case for most of these, but Caramay has the best A/W stats...

...whilst Fillyfudge's early pace might well propel her into the frame today if she can hold on...

...but I suspect she'll have to play second (or third best) to the likes of fast-finishing Caramay and LTO winner Achillea

 

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

Ten run, four are on debut, two make just a second appearance and the other four have raced twice each with the filly Kimeko Glory the only one to have made the frame, when third of nine over 1m½f at Wolverhampton five weeks ago. Minelone also makes some appeal after not being disgraced over 7f on debut also at Wolverhampton six weeks ago, coming home fourth of ten and should come on for the experience and I think that this pair will be involved again today.

Of the debutants, Rogue Officer might be the one to take note of, he's a son of Soldiers Call, a half-brother to several winners including Misleading Promise, Return To Dubai and Frutireu and he's out of Nurse Nightingale, who made the frame in seven of her own ten A/W starts.

Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

The second division of the above race gives us even less to go on! Only three have raced before and none of them have really impressed, so the chances are that the debutants will beat them.

Empress Matilda's dam won three times and was a runner-up twice from six starts at 6f and 7f including wins at a Group 2 & 3 and a Gr 1 silver. She's a half-sister to Saint Lawrence, who won a 7f Listed race and her yard's (Roger Varian) debutants are flying right now, plus they have a stack of stats to back them up...

Tattie Bogle is a half-brother to winners including Column, Teaser and Tartlette, with the former a winner on the All-Weather. The Johnston yard have a good record at this venue and Tattier Bogle could easily get amongst the money here, as could Lightupyourlife, whose dam was a winner up to 7.5f. This Kodiac filly cost 37,000 Euros as a yearling and is a half sister to A/W winner Livinthelife, who has won up to 1m1f.

Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo maiden over 1m...

A modest looking contest that shouldn't take much winning and the obvious starting point would have to be Spetses who was beaten by less than two lengths on debut four weeks ago, finishing second of ten behind a horse that already had a win under his belt and we already highlighted his yard's form in the race above.

And if Spetses is an obvious candidate for the win, then you have to say that Rogue State is the ideal suggestion to make the frame, having finished third in all six career starts to date. She gets weight from most of her rivals and will wear a tongue-tie for the first time today.

As for a third pick, none of the others with race experience excite me, so it could fall to debutant Sedbury. This Pearl Secret colt is a brother to 1m-1½m winner Goldsborough and a half-brother to both 6f winner Canadian Royal & 1m-1½m winner My Boy Sepoy and hails from a yard with a good record at this track...

Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Three runners, How Impressive, Harvard Sound and It Just Takes Time come here on hat-tricks, so at least two will see their winning streak end. Chuzzlewit is the only runner without a win in the last six starts, having lost his last eight, but he was third of twelve at Ayr last time out. Silver Samurai was also third last time out, whilst Street Kid and Lattaash have both made the frame in each of their last two runs, with Noodle Mission's form this year reading 31211216 with the step up to Class 2 LTO just a bit too much and this course/distance winner now steps back down in class. Bottom weight Chalk Mountain was also sixth last time out, ending a run of three straight A/W victories, but that has moved his mark from 68 to 82 and that might be his ceiling for now.

Our pace analyser for this race looks like this...

...which suggests that the following half dozen runners might be better suited...

...whilst my Instant Expert shortlist would be...

...and in a race where you can make claims for plenty of these, I'm taking a simplistic approach with the three that feature on both graphics above ie (4) Noodle Mission, (5) How Impressive & (11) Run Boy Run

Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Baltic seemed to struggle on the heavy ground at Newmarket last time out, coming home last of eight and ending a 5-race winning streak that included two handicap wins on the Tapeta at Newcastle, so he's have every chance back on the A/W.

Saratoga Gold hasn't won any of his last thirteen races since a win at Kempton almost 15 months ago and probably comes here in the worst form of the four runners.

Berkshire Sundance won well at Kempton in September 2023 before taking almost a year off and on his return at Chester last month he got upset in the stalls, reared at the start and jockey Jason Watson. Oisin Murphy had ridden him to victory at Kempton and returned to the saddle at Salisbury last time out, where the pair won again.

Le Rouge Chinois could only manage to finish 8th of 9 over this course and distance a fortnight ago, which was a disappointment considering he had the run of the run from the front end. he faded badly late on and was eventually over 13 lengths off the pace.

On form alone, you'd want to be with Baltic and Berkshire Sundance and it's the former who has the best A/W stats over the last couple of years and is only 4lbs higher than his last win...

...and with him looking likely to stalk Le Rouge Chinois in the early stages, Baltic would the one I'd back to win this if I was looking for a winner...

That said, Berkshire Sunrise is likely to go off at odds on, so I'd be foolish to ignore his claims too.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Achillea, (5) Fillyfudge & (6) Caramay

Leg 2: (4) Minelone, (5) Rogue Officer & (8) Kimeko Glory

Leg 3: (5) Tattie Bogle, (6) Empress Matilda & (7) Lightupyourlife

Leg 4: (3) Spetses, (5) Sedbury & (7) Rogue State

Leg 5: (4) Noodle Mission, (5) How Impressive & (11) Run Boy Run

Leg 6: (1) Baltic & (5) Berkshire Sunrise

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone, see you tomorrow!
Chris

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