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Tix Picks, Wednesday 30/10/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fakenham, Kempton, Newton Abbot & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest money is at Kempton, but there are too many novice fillies to deal with for my liking, so let's head for the soft/heavy ground at Nottingham for six races beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 1.05, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Only three of this field have raced so far and none of them really caught the eye, but of that trio, Love Beach seems the one to focus on. He was pretty slow to get going here over course and distance three weeks ago on heavy ground, but you could see the penny started to drop more as the race went on and he's sure to benefit from the experience.

Elsewhere, I know that spending money on young horses doesn't guarantee success, but the Frankel colt Opportunity cost 475,000 guineas as a yearling, has excellent breeding (of course) and is a full brother to Zagato, who won five races between 1m-1m4f including a Group 2 contest, he's also a half brother to five other winners and his dam was successful at 1m-1m2f.

I also think that El Matador will go well here too. He's a half-brother to eight winners, including Snazzy Jazzy, won eight times at 6f and 7f including a Group 3 race and trainer Ralph Beckett has seen 58 of his 128 (45.3%) 2 yr olds make the frame on turf since the stat of 2023 with 30 (23.4%) of them going on to win. His horses are flying right now and he has a fantastic record with 2yo debutants here at Nottingham...

So, it's (2) El Matador, (4) Love Beach & (5) Opportunity for me here.

Leg 2 @ 1.35, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Dashing Roger won over course and distance just over a year ago and backed it up with another win at Newmarket three weeks later, but hasn't fired at all this season, so it is hoped that a drop in class and a return to heavy ground works for him. Lets Dream makes a return from six months of and wasn't exactly inspiring in his two runs earlier this year either, but he has been gelded during his absence and gets a 3lbs weight allowance as a 3yo.

Asteverdi also gets that allowance and she won at Sandown in June and has been third in two of her last three outings. Double Time also won in June (at Goodwood) but has finished 88468 and was beaten by some eleven lengths on heavy ground last time out.

Shaladar was only 7th of 9 at Newcastle last time out, but (a) he's much better on turf and (b) he was only beaten by three lengths in a tight race. His last two runs on turf (early September and then 26 days ago) were both on soft ground and he made the frame both times, but he's up one class here. Temper Trap is up two classes after finishing fourth of twelve here over course and distance last time out on soft ground ending a great sequence of results reading 22211 under a variety of going conditions.

Temper Trap has won five of ten starts on soft/heavy ground, whilst the overall place picture over the last two years looks like this...

Those drawn highest have tended to come worst off in similar past races, which isn't great for Temper Trap or Double Time and those runners setting the tempo have done really well here...

...but with a lack of real pace from our field...

...I suspect we'll get a falsely un race that plays into the hands of 'finishers', which will help the likes of (3) Asteverdi and (5) Shaladar, so I'll take that pair for my tickets.

Leg 3 @ 2.08, a 7-runner, 3yo+ listed race over 1m½f...

My initial thoughts backed up by my own ratings and the early market prices all point to a 1-2 for the in-form Ralph Beckett with his closely-matched pair Grey's Monument and Qirat. The former comes here on a hat-trick after soft ground wins at Class 2 and then a Listed race at Redcar 25 days ago, whilst Qirat won at Goodwood in August and was then a runner-up in an 18-runner field on soft ground at Ascot, also 25 days ago,

Elsewhere Sparks Fly made all to win a Listed race in France on very soft ground at the start of the month, Canoodled won a big-field handicap at the Ebor meeting, albeit on much quicker ground and Times Edition comes here on a run reading 2221, but all at Class 5 and she's up four classes here which will probably be the undoing of her, despite her good record under today's conditions...

..leaving Sparks Fly as the best suited from that graphic. Times Edition is also at the 'wrong end' of the stalls, as is Canoodled, but unlike the race above, we should have a decent tempo from flag fall...

...with the subsequent pace/draw heat map...

...finalising my decision to go with (2) Grey's Monument, (3) Sparks Fly and (4) Qirat

Leg 4 @ 2.38, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m6f...

If the last race looked like it might be dominated by Ralph Beckett, then this one might go to the Gosdens who run both Fireblade and Faifa here. Fireblade is by Frankel and was finishing strongly when a runner-up beaten by just a neck over 1m4f at Ascot on heavy ground at the start of the months; the drop in class might just lead him to break his duck today. Stablemate Faifa actually steps up in class and whilst running to a reasonable level so far, probably has a bit more to prove under these conditions, but stayed on well to finish third at Doncaster in a Class 2 race two starts ago.

Mr Hampstead was deemed worthy of a run in the Derby and the Gr 2 Queens Vase this summer, but was well beaten in both, beating just one runner home on each occasion. There's obviously a belief that he has something, but might need a run after over four months off. Games People Play was disappointing on heavy ground last time out, but was a decent second of fourteen on soft ground at Carlisle seven weeks ago, albeit at Class 5. Rained Off, Rose Coloured Girl and Volakes complete the line-up with little of note from this trio so far.

I'll stick with the Gosden pair here; (1) Fireblade and (4) Faifa with (5) Games People Play as my backup

Leg 5 @ 3.08, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

He might well be 9yrs old now, but Makanah is running well, having finished 1292 in his last four. The two runner-up defeats were only by half a length including a strong run on heavy ground at Leicester last time out. Changeofmind's recent results can be a bit misleading as he has been racing at a higher grade, since finishing second of nine at Hamilton on heavy ground in August (three lengths ahead of Count D'Orsay, a 14/1 winner I selected yesterday). Blind Beggar was also a heavy ground runner-up on his last run, finishing just a head in front of the re-opposing Fantasy Master.

Fantasy Master now re-opposes Blind Beggar some 3lbs better off and has a 50% place strike rate here (6 from 12 inc 2 wins) over course and distance, but his record on soft/heavy ground isn't as good as Blind Beggar's...

The pace and draw stats point to higher drawn runners faring best here, as do those who race in mid-division and in Changeofmind and Makanah, we have two runners who tick both boxes...

and I'll take this pair; (1) Makanah and (2) Changeofmind

Leg 6 @ 3.38, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Course and distance winner Smooth Silesie has certainly been kept busy and today will be her eleventh run in the last four months. She has finished in the first three home in eight of those ten starts and has finished 1311622 in her last seven and she'll probably go well again today. Albegone doesn't win very often, but it's place from we need for this column and he has been the runner-up in four of his last seven races and it's a similar story for Wrestling Revenue, who is 1322 from his last four, but the going might undo him here.

Enchanted Night produced her best run for some time when third of eleven on soft ground at Yarmouth last week but races from 4lbs out of the handicap. The one to beat here might well be the 3yo Collusion who got caught very late on in a 0.75 length defeat on handicap debut on soft ground at Yarmouth last week. He steps beck in trip here, which should help and he should strip fitter for the run, as he'd been off the track for eight months prior to last week's effort. He goes again off the same mark here and if running this 5f like he ran the first 5f last week, might be tough to beat, especially in the mood Rossa Ryan rides with right now...

That said, Albegone also has some decent stats to call upon...

So I'm going to take (7) Collusion as my likely winner, along with regular placers (2) Albegone and (1) Smooth Silesie in the hope that the latter can import some of her good recent A/W form to the turf. Enchanted Night interested me on her stats and I think she might be better than her 33/1 (just before 10am) price might suggest. She receives chunks of weight all round, her jockey takes another 5lbs off, but she does run from outside of the handicap. She won't go on my ticket today, but I might just have a small (very small!) E/W punt on her

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) El Matador, (4) Love Beach & (5) Opportunity for me here.

Leg 2: (3) Asteverdi & (5) Shaladar

Leg 3: (2) Grey's Monument, (3) Sparks Fly & (4) Qirat

Leg 4: (1) Fireblade, (4) Faifa & (5) Games People Play

Leg 5: (1) Makanah & (2) Changeofmind

Leg 6: (1) Smooth Silesie, (2) Albegone & (7) Collusion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 29/10/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Bangor, Catterick, Chepstow & Newcastle.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

Once again, the Newcastle pot is the largest, but let's have a change of scenery and head for Catterick, where the ground is expected to be soft for...

Leg 1 @ 12.40, a 4-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Hi Lord was second on debut at Hamilton four weeks ago a length and a quarter behind a 5/4 favourite on good to soft ground, Farandaway has been runner-up on both starts today and was only beaten by a neck when caught close to the line last time out, so the drop in trip might help, whilst Genius Mistake's form reads 24, but she has been beaten by 9.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths in her last two. Sarabi was a well beaten (11 lengths) 7th of 8 on debut at Wolverhampton last week.

So, based on the above form and distances beaten, I'll take (2) Farandaway as my pick here, but I'll also add (3) Hi Lord as back-up.

Leg 2 @ 1.12, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Kyber Crystal has two wins and two places from her last six starts and course and distance winner Fortunate Star has made the frame on each of his last two starts, whilst Too Much Too Young & Turn And Burn both won four races ago, but haven't made the frame since.

Fortunate Star probably edges it on relevant form over the last couple of years and at 11lbs below his last win could be dangerously weighted, although only Quanah has any soft ground form to show...

That said, Quanah is currently enduring a fairly modest set of results and I think I'll just stick with the top two on the card, although Too Much Too Young worries me from a pace perspective.

Leg 3 @ 1.42, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Lennox has shown progression with pretty much each race since finishing 7th of 9 on debut at Kempton a year ago, finishing 322U1 and was very comfortable when winning at Southwell last time out stepped up in trip. His 6lbs 3yo weight allowance should also be very useful here today, as well in might for Local Arms and Kings Scholar, especially with the former dropping two classes here.

Our pace/draw heat map points towards the two drawn highest...

...and Clansman is the only runner to have already won over today's trip (Thirsk on heavy in April), although Dreams Adozen did win over 1m4½f on heavy ground at Chester in June. She also looks really well suited to today's conditions...

and with a recent pace profile of...

...it's not entirely inconceivable that she runs clear early doors and hangs on for a place, so I'll take (3) Dreams Adozen as my back up to (5) Lennox & (6) Local Arms

Leg 4 @ 2.12, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Quite a few of these come here in good nick, including Homer Stokes, a winner three times in his last four, all over this course and distance and arrives here on a hat-trick. Sir Garfield has been in the first two home six times in his last seven outings, winning twice including last time out at Ayr and a course and distance win here in July.

Desert Dream is also a former course and distance winner, having done so in back to back races in August/September, after which he was 3rd of 12 on the A/W at Chelmsford before returning here to finish second of nine over track/trip ten days ago at Class 4. The 10 yr old doesn't seem to be slowing down and a drop in class will help here too. Mister Sox is also a course and distance winner dropping in class and he has been on the first two home in five of his last eight, but was beaten by over eight lengths here last time out.

And if we look back at the wins achieved by this field over the last two years, it's Homer Stokes, Sir Garfield and Desert Dream who catch the eye the most...

Those drawn highest have fared well here in the past, so that's another tick for (9) Desert Dream. (3) Homer Stokes sets the standard over course and distance and does like to lead or race prominently, which is usually a good tactic here, whilst (5) Sir Garfield led last time out and has been a model of consistency since the summer, so I'll take this trio.

Leg 5 @ 2.47, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...

The top two on the card, Bonne Vitesse and Captain Potter, both won last time out, but the former might need the run after a five-month break, whilst the latter was a course and distance winner four weeks ago. Malinka won two races ago and as sole 3yo in the race, she's helped here by an 8lbs weight allowance and although he's winless in twelve races over the last fourteen months, Tarbat Ness is now only 3lbs higher than that last win and he has made the frame in seven of those twelve defeats, finishing as runner-up in six of them including his last two, both this month (here over C&D on soft and over 2m1f at Bath on heavy) and he's actually the pick of the pack when it comes to relevant place form over the last two years...

That said, he'd still be an unlikely winner, but does have the talented Gina Mangan in the saddle, who has got a decent tune out of him in those last two races and she has a good record riding for John Berry...

(1) Bonne Vitesse and (2) Captain Potter are the easy/lazy picks of form, but I do think that there's another good race due from (7) Tarbat Ness, so I'll have all three on my Tix ticket builder today.

Leg 6 @ 3.22, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Game Breaker has won two of her last three and Count D'Orsay has won two from four, but with recent results reading 1161, it's Hour By Hour bringing the best form to the table. Jungle Land, Princess Alex and Knicks all finished third on their last outings.

Hour by Hour actually drops in class today, as does Princess Alex, but both Game Breaker and Knicks step up from Class 5. Count D'Orsay's win over course and distance on soft ground ten days ago is the only time any of these have won on this track.

Similar past races here have favoured those drawn highest, but early pace has been even more important than the draw. That said, the two most likely to set the early tempo are drawn in the highest third of the stalls...

...whilst my Instant Expert shortlist looks like this...

I'm definitely having (1) Hour By Hour here and of the rest (2) Count D'Orsay probably ticks most boxes leaving me to pick from Game Breaker, Jungle Land, Princess Alex and Knicks. Game Breaker fails on both pace and relevant form. There's not much between the other three in  my mind, but at the risk of ignoring Knicks' soft ground prowess, he is up in class, so I'll take class-dropper and pacemaker (7) Princess Alex to complete my selections for the day.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Farandaway & (3) Hi Lord

Leg 2: (1) Kyber Crystal & (2) Fortunate Star

Leg 3: (3) Dreams Adozen, (5) Lennox & (6) Local Arms

Leg 4: (3) Homer Stokes, (5) Sir Garfield & (9) Desert Dream

Leg 5: (1) Bonne Vitesse, (2) Captain Potter & (7) Tarbat Ness

Leg 6: (1) Hour By Hour, (2) Count D'Orsay & (7) Princess Alex

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck, as always!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 28/10/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Leicester, Newcastle, Redcar & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

So let's follow the money and head to Newcastle, where the Tapeta is expected to ride standard to slow for our races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 3.35, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...

Bulldog Spirit and Unique Spirit both finished as runners-up on their last outings with the former winning three starts ago and the latter finishing 3212 in his last four (all over course and distance) and as one of just two (along with bottom weight Catalan King) 3 yr olds in the race gets a very useful 8lbs weight allowance here. Aside from these two, the rest of the field are winless in their last six starts although Weddell Sea has been a runner-up in two of his last three and three of his last five. Zephlyn could also go well here, having finished 2444 in his last four, all at 2m-2m2f and not beaten by more than 3.5 lengths in any of them and his record over course and distance reads 2312.

Bulldog Spirit and Zephlyn also both drop in class here, whilst Weddell Sea, Zephlyn and Unique Spirit seem best suited by conditions...

Over a trip of 2m+, no runner in a 9-horse field should be losing the race because of the draw, but the pace angle is a different matter and with those racing further back in the pack faring best here over this course and distance, that's a positive for..

A quick look back at who I've mentioned positively above brings me to select (3) Weddell Sea, (6) Zephlyn & (7) Unique Spirit with Bulldog Spirit possibly unlucky to miss out.

Leg 2 @ 4.10, a 6-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...

Only six go to post here and the early market suggests that only Percy Willis is out of the running on his return from a 121-day absence, even if he did win here over course and distance seven starts and seven months ago.

Of the others, Princess Niyla was a runner-up ten days ago, Molinari has made the frame in two of his last three, Laudable has been running well for the last three months (31112422) albeit mainly at Class 6 and bottom weight Annandale won well at Ayr 18 days ago beating the re-opposing Laudable by a length and a half.

Laudable is a pound better off today and 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser has some good numbers...

The race seems to lack any real pace, so it might be left to Princess Niyla to set the tempo, which could make her a target here...

...but if it is falsely run, that will suit the 'finishers' Molinari and Annandale, so I'm taking the bottom half of the card, (4) Molinari, (5) Laudable & (6) Annandale here.

Leg 3 @ 4.40, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...

This looks like a two-horse race here between Kisdon Force and Space Trooper with the former the most obvious pick. He was third of nine on debut 18 days ago and then a runner-up beaten by just a head over course and distance 10 days ago. Space Trooper was third of seven at Chelmsford on debut in mid-September, but failed to land a blow at Windsor next/last time out a fortnight ago. That said, he was racing over 5f on heavy ground, finishing last of three beaten by just over two lengths. We should see more of him back up in trip and away from the mud, but he'd be second pick here.

Rajawail has made the frame just once in eight starts and was 7th of 8 here at Newcastle over a mile last time out. She was 17.5 lengths off the pace and that was on the 4th January; this will be just her second outing in over 13 months, so out of form and rusty isn't an attractive proposition, whilst Three Sixty makes just her third career start, having been 9th of 11 over 6f at Redcar fourteen months ago and then last home of eight tailed off here over course and distance 10 days ago.

(1) Kisdon Force should be enough here, but we'll take (2) Space Trooper as back-up, just in case.

Leg 4 @ 5.15, an 8-runner, Class 5, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Daughter of Frankel, Maissara, drops in class for her handicap bow after consistent finishes of 443 and was only beaten by a length on her A/W debut last time out, so might have been underestimated off an opening mark of 73. Ziggy's Ariel and Chuti Manika have both already won races (both scored three races ago) and the latter drops in trip here. Fallen Soldier was a runner-up at Thirsk six weeks ago, but he's up in class today.

Our place pace/draw heat map suggests these runners might go well...

...with low-drawn Chuti Manika likely to get first run, pursued by the four widest drawn runners. To be honest, (2) Maissara aside, this group look quite evenly matched, so I'll take (3) Chuti Manika on pace/draw and the fact he has won a race as an alternative. Elsewhere, (4) Cracking Man is interesting, he shows well on pace/draw above, drops three classes for his second handicap run, has been gelded since that handicap debut and has some stats to back him up...

...so he completes my trio of picks.

Leg 5 @ 5.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Water of Leith looks the form horse here, finishing 1931 in his last four, although he is up 4lbs for that win at Ayr almost six weeks ago. Dark Kestrel was third at Southwell recently and A Girl Named Ivy won at Pontefract over 6f in August and at Ayr in May off the back of an 11-month break.

Stat-wise, Water of Leith's yard do well with LTO winners too...

...whilst Instant Expert highlights Dark Kestrel (trip) and the bottom half of the card generally...

Early pace is often the key here over 5f at Newcastle, as it is at most tracks, if truth be told and it looks like the tempo is likely to be set by Herakles and A Girl Named Ivy

...and Herakles is a former course and distance winner off just 2lbs lower than today's mark and of the two front-runners, he's probably a safer bet as A Girl Named Ivy has no previous Tapeta experience, so (9) Herakles joins in-form (5) Water of Leith on my ticket builder and I think I'll supplement them with (3) Dark Kestrel who runs off the same mark as his last win and has been eased a pound from his third place finish last time out.

Leg 6 @ 6.15, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A pretty open-looking sprint is our final race here and a few come to this one in good nick. Spirit of Applause has finished 1032 in his last four and was only caught late on over 6f at Southwell last time, going down by a neck, so the drop in trip might help. Leodis Dream was a course and distance winner by a length and a half 25 days ago and both the 3rd and 6th placed runners have won since, whilst the 4th placed horse ahs made the frame. Zuffolo has won two of his last four, including LTO at Redcar six weeks ago, whilst Gustav Graves is turned back out just a week after finishing third of nine over this trip at Wolverhampton and he's probably the stand-out under today's conditions...

Cotai Vision has done well over this trip and her 'recent' form reads 22227, but she hasn't raced since early August and the last of those runner-up finishes was nine months ago, so there's a chance that she could tire before the line today, especially as she's likely to try and burst out early...

...leaving her very susceptible to being rushed out of it by Leodis Dream and Zuffolo, who both featured in my 'form' preview earlier. I can't ignore Gustav Graves' two-year record under these conditions and Spirit of Applause probably brings the best form to the table, so if we're still in with 'live' tickets at this point, I'm not missing out by omitting the wrong one, so I'll take all four ie (1) Spirit Applause, (5) Leodis Dream, (7) Zuffolo & (8) Gustav Graves in a safety-first approach here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Weddell Sea, (6) Zephlyn & (7) Unique Spirit

Leg 2: (4) Molinari, (5) Laudable & (6) Annandale

Leg 3: (1) Kisdon Force & (2) Space Trooper

Leg 4: (2) Maissara, (3) Chuti Manika & (4) Cracking Man

Leg 5: (3) Dark Kestrel, (5) Water of Leith & (9) Herakles

Leg 6: (1) Spirit Applause, (5) Leodis Dream, (7) Zuffolo & (8) Gustav Graves

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Best of Luck, hoping your Monday is a happy one!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 25/10/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kelso & Newbury.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

Not the biggest pot of the day, but heavy ground always interests me, so we're off to Newbury for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.25, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 6f...

No LTO winners, but Jr Climbs has a win and two places from his last four starts, Rock Hunter has made the frame in three of his five outings to date, The Hare Rail was a runner-up on his penultimate run and Art Design won two starts ago.

Priapos and Hackney Diamonds both won three starts ago, as did Emporess who has been runner-up in both starts since. Prosperitas has been third in two of his four starts so far and East Tyrone won five races ago, so all nine have already shown some aptitude.

Emporess probably brings the best recent form to the table, whilst Jr Climbs was a runner-up just a neck behind a subsequent Listed class winner last month. We've got heavy ground here, which will be right up in-form Emporess' street, whose recent run of form (122) is all on heavy...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests that Priapos and Hackney Diamonds could go well here from the centre of the stalls...

Of this pair, I prefer (1) Priapos, who I'll take with (2) Jr Climbs and (8) Emporess

Leg 2 @ 2.00, a 10-runner, 2yo Fillies Listed race over 7f...

Another race where all ten runners have won at least once. Supermodel and Too Much Heaven both won on debut last time out (the latter here over course and distance), fast-finisher Saqqara Sands and Sea To Sky both won last time out after finishing as runners-up on debut and Isabella Castile has progressed with results reading 931. Naina was only 8th of 10 last time out, but that was a Group 3 race and prior to that run, she had won four of her previous five starts, all over today's trip.

Several of this field have already won on soft or heavy ground, including Too Much Heaven's four length win over track and trip on debut last month...

..and with the place pace/draw heat map also pointing towards (9) Too Much Heaven...

...I'll take her along with fast-finishing (6) Saqqara Sands and (8) Supermodel based on how she virtually glided across the mud at Haydock on debut a month ago on her way to a 3.5 length victory.

Leg 3 @ 2.34, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Civil Law was a runner-up last time piut and has a win and three places from his last five starts, but hasn't been seen for seven months. Arthurs Realm was third on his last outing and the consistent Indemnity has finished in the first three in seven of his eleven career runs, and was a runner-up beaten by just half a length on heavy ground at Salisbury at the start of the month.

3yo Sir Lowrys Pass has a win and a place from his last two, Nap hand won two starts ago, as did Pink Lily, whilst Desperate Dan's last four on turf read 2312 with the two latest runs seeing him win by five lengths at Nottingham and then go down by a nose at Windsor, both on heavy ground, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where Pink Lily's prowess over today's trip is also highlighted, but I point out that virtually all of that form is on good ground or on the A/W.  Sir Lowry's Pass has got the 'lucky' first stall here and as a hold-up type, is put forward by our pace/draw heat map as a potential winner...

He has progressed well so far and with the promise of more to come, I'll take (5) Sir Lowry's Pass to go with the consistent (4) Indemnity and the in-form mud lover (10) Desperate Dan.

Leg 4 @ 3.10, a 9-runner, 2yo Group 3 stakes over 7f...

Only God Of War (won two starts ago), Panama Black (unplaced in both starts) and Star Anthem (won three starts ago) failed to win last time out. Make You Smile won on debut, Mirabeau seeks a hat-trick, Afentiko and Benevento are both 121 from their last three, whilst Bob Mali has won all three starts to date. Yaroogh is three from four in the UK and four from five overall.

Benevento has been entered for the Irish 2000 Guineas and comes here after winning a Listed race at Doncaster. The Waco Kid was third that day, a length and a quarter back, but he has won a Group 3 race since, so Benevento should fare well here.

Yaroogh also won a Listed race last time out, finishing 3.5 lengths clear of the field on heavy ground at Chantilly and these two wins are probably the best efforts produced by any of this field, whilst unbeaten Bob Mali comes here after three straight wins at increasingly higher grades, looking comfortable each time and he's two from two on heavy ground, so I take (2) Benevento, (3) Bob Mali and (9) Yaroogh here.

Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 3 stakes over 1m4f...

Al Aasy rarely runs a bad race and has made the frame in 15 of 21 career starts and has only failed to finish in the first two home once in his last eight outings when denied a clear run at Ascot just over a year ago. he has finished 112 in his last three runs, all at Group 3, so he's in prime form. Max Vega and Feigning Madness might need the run after six month absences and Salt bay has lost all nine races since winning on debut at Haydock over two years ago, leaving us with the Gosden pair Gods Window and Danielle as challengers to Al Aasy. The former comes here in the better form and will be a much bigger price, so I'll go with (5) Gods Window as backup to (1) Al Aasy.

Leg 6 @ 4.19, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo fillies novice stakes over 1m..

Help!

Brightandbeautiful was a well beaten 9th of 10 on debut four weeks ago and Celestial Pearl could only manage 10th of 15 on her racecourse bow a fortnight, leaving both of these vulnerable to any of the four debutants if they show any aptitude for racing at all.

Money isn't always everything, but That's Amore cost 180,000 Gns as a yearling and is a full sister to Persica who won a Listed race last month and competed at Group 1 on Champions Day last weekend and with Ralph Beckett's 2 yr olds making the frame in 170 of 338 starts since the start of 2023, winning 76 times, That's Amore is the one for me here.

Hatysa also cost a lost of money (280,000 Gns) and is by Sea The Stars out of Hazaranda, who is a half-sister to Harzand, who won a Leopardstown Group 3 race, the Derby and the Irish Derby on the bounce in 2016, so on breeding/cost (3) Hatysa is the alternate to (6) That's Amore

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Priapos, (2) Jr Climbs and (8) Emporess

Leg 2: (6) Saqqara Sands, (8) Supermodel and (9) Too Much Heaven

Leg 3: (4) Indemnity, (5) Sir Lowry's Pass and (10) Desperate Dan

Leg 4: (2) Benevento, (3) Bob Mali and (9) Yaroogh

Leg 5: (1) Al Aasy and (5) Gods Window

Leg 6: (3) Hatysa and (6) That's Amore

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck and have a great weekend!
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 24/10/24

/in /by

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Newbury & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Cheltenham's pot being so huge, I think we need to check out the six races on good ground that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 1.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

LTO winner Push The Button has won three from four, Wyenot is three from five, In The Air comes here on a hat-trick, Support Act has two wins and a runner-up finish from four starts, Letterston Lily has made the frame in six of her last seven (3 wins) and Callin Baton Rouge is three from three since moving yards. Mind you, she finished 2422 on her last four starts for her previous handler.

Most of this half-dozen I've highlighted on form are up a class today, but Letterston Lily drops down after a couple of Class 2 races, whilst Wyenot was third of nine (behind a Festival winner completing a 4-timer) over this course and distance in a Listed contest last time out and now drops two classes.

Push The Button, Wyenot and Support Act all make handicap debuts today off opening marks of 132, 123 and 113 and I think the last two are fairly lenient, especially as the one that beat Wyenot LTO is rated 139.

This half-dozen are my shortlist from which I'm taking (6) Wyenot, (9) In The Air & (13) Callin Baton Rouge. I do like Push The Button, but an opening mark of 132 after 11 months off the track might just be too much, Support Act also hasn't raced for eight months and Letterston Lily is the unlucky one to be left out.

Leg 2 @ 1.50, a 4-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m..

Jazzy Matty won the Fred Winter in 2023 but disappointed in four subsequent efforts over hurdles before falling 3 out on his chase debut at Wexford in early August. He was then first and third at the same venue over 2m3½f before being pulled up early at Listowel just over a month ago. he did bounce back to land a 2m5f chase at Sligo last time out, but this race is tougher than he's faced before.

San Salvador won a grade 2 hurdle at Punchestown at the end of 2022, but was pulled up in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham on his last effort over hurdles. He started 4F74 over fences before the penny dropped last month with back to back wins down in trip at Listowel and Roscommon inside eight days, the latter being a Grade 3 which puts him right in the mix here.

Noble Anthem was 2 from 9 on the Flat and was a runner-up in the final two of his four hurdles starts. This will be his third crack at fences, having finished 4th of 13 at Market Rasen in July before winning next/last time out at Sedgefield at the start of this month. That, however, was a Class 4 affair and this is much tougher up two classes.

Path D'Oroux comes from the tard that won this race last year with 4/7 fav My Mate Mozzie and he's likely to go off at similar odds in a race where shorties have done really well. For his own part, he has yet to win any of ten starts over fences, but has been a runner-up in Listed company and has made the frame in Class 1 handicaps at both the Cheltenham & Aintree Festivals this year and this race is probably a weaker affair than he has faced of late and this could be the ideal opportunity to get off the mark, a thought backed up by the performances of both his yard and his rider here at HQ...

(2) San Salvador & (5) Path D'Oroux here for me.

Leg 3 @ 2.25, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m...

Dancing On My Own won this race last year, had two creditable Class 1 runs in the spring before finishing second at Killarney in July and then he won at Ballinrobe next/last time out two months ago. Arclight was pulled up in a Grade 2 last time out after winning each of her three previous starts over fences, including two Listed races and drops in class here. Scarface has finished 3312113 in his last seven including a Class 1 handicap win at Sandown and he was third of twelve here at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 handicap on his last run.

Coastguard Station has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five, including a Class 2 success, whilst bottom weight Royal Mer's chasing career read 12152111 before being pulled up at Ayr last time out, but he has ever raced higher than Class 3 and steps up in class today.

The one I would mention whose form doesn't appear great is Matata. he was pretty well beaten in a pair of Grade 1's at the Cheltenham & Aintree Festival this year on his last two runs, but had finished 122 in his three previous outings, the last of which saw him beaten by just half a length in a Grade 2 race at Lingfield. This is a much lower standard today and any return to that kind of form puts him right in the mix, plus he's he likely front-runner in a race that has benefited those willing to set the tempo...

...and it's from this quartet that I'll make my choices. Matata is quite possibly the best runner in the race, whilst Dancing On My Own is proven over course and distance plus his yard's stats stand up well...

Leaving me to pick between Arclight & Scarface. I don't have much between them if truth be told, but Arclight might offer more value in the market, so I'm taking (1) Dancing On My Own, (2) Matata & (5) Arclight here.

Leg 4 @ 3.00, a 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m½f...

All bar Dancing In Paris won last time out and he's the only one to have been beaten over hurdles as Imaginarium, Strong Foundations, Valgrand, Brave Knight & Gale Mahler are unbeaten in 1, 1, 2, 3 and 4 races respectively. Gale Mahler won her last two bumpers too, so she's now unbeaten in her last six starts and havingh won a Listed race by ten lengths last time out, she has to be the one to beat.

Front-runner Valgrand and Brave Knight look much better than the other three and in a safety-first approach, I'll take all three here; (3) Valgrand, (4) Brave Knight & (6) Gale Mahler

Leg 5 @ 3.35, a 19-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m1f...

Wow, where to start? Well, we do have the last three winners of this race opposing each other today as Strictlyadancer (2021), Jimmy The Digger (2022) and Mole Court (2023) will all take their shot.

11yo Amateur did win two starts ago, but isn't reliable and has been pulled up in four of his last five. Ceanndana is 3113P21121 in his last ten starts, Jack's Parrot comes here on a hat-trick, Hold Your Fort's last five read 11112 and The Boola Boss has seven to-three finishes from his last nine outings, including three wins, whilst my Instant Expert shortlist looks like this...

Despite this being a 3m1f slog, pace is still key and our pace analyser suggests those on the front end fare best of all in these big field chases...

...which will benefit the likes of Mole Court, Hold Your Fort and The Boola Boss the most, if their recent runs are anything to go by...

So, we've looked at recent form, 2yr stats and pace so far and both Hold Your Foert and The Boola Boss have had a mention in each section, so they're going on my ticket builder today. Mole Court will possibly be the pacemaker, but doesn't arrive here in great form and I think that the reliable/consistent Ceanndana might be a better option for us, so that's (9) Ceanndana, (12) Hold Your Fort & (15) The Boola Boss.

Leg 6 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m4f...

All bar better Off Alone and Cloonainra come here off the back of a win, but I agree with the bookies in that this should be a two-horse race between (3) Minella Sixo and (4) Potters Charm.

Minella Sixo won his sole PTP outing back in May before going on to win by eight lengths on his racecourse debut at Fairyhouse 18 days ago and the margin of victory could well have been much more, whilst Potters Charm backed his 11 length bumper win on debut at Ffos Las in March with a 3.5 length victory at Worcester recently defying any ill-effects from a six-month break.

Potters Charm's team are flying right now, so another success wouldn't be a huge surprise...

...whilst Minella Sixo's team do great with LTO winners and horses making their second appearance...

...and since the start of 2020, Gordon Elliott's horses making their second start after winning on debut have made the frame in 47 of 80 (58.75%) races, winning 27 (33.75%) of them

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (6) Wyenot, (9) In The Air & (13) Callin Baton Rouge

Leg 2: (2) San Salvador & (5) Path D'Oroux

Leg 3: (1) Dancing On My Own, (2) Matata & (5) Arclight

Leg 4: (3) Valgrand, (4) Brave Knight & (6) Gale Mahler

Leg 5: (9) Ceanndana, (12) Hold Your Fort & (15) The Boola Boss

Leg 6: (3) Minella Sixo and (4) Potters Charm

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Fingers crossed, this looks tough!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 24/10/24

/in /by

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Carlisle, Ludlow, Nottingham, Southwell & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Wolverhampton having the biggest pot, let's take in their first six races on standard tapeta, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 4.35, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ apprentice handicap over 1m½f...

Billy McGarry has won three of his last seven and only missed out on completing a hat-trick by less than a length over this course and distance last time out. Cerulean Summer has made the frame in four of her last five and comes here after winning by two lengths over 1m1½f on this track ten days ago. Harbour Vision was headed close over over C&D five days ago, he goes well here at Wolverhampton and will be dangerous of an unchanged mark. Cobh Harbour is still a maiden after 12 starts, but has finished 434533 in his last six, so should be involve again today, whilst bottom-weight and 10-race maiden Just Typical produced his best effort to date when second of ten at Southwell 16 days ago.

Instant Expert's 2yr A/W stats show most of those named above in a good light, plus opens the door for Hellavapace, even if her very recent form is quite poor...

Leaders & prominent runners fare best in this type of race here, but only three runners have an average pace score of 2.50 or higher from their last four runs...

So, I'm definitely taking (4) Harbour Vision today and from Billy McGarry, Cerulean Summer, Cobh Harbour and Sir Titan, I'm going to side with (1) Billy McGarry and (2) Cerulean Summer

Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Front-running My Genghis comes here seeking a hat-trick after a one length win here over 6f was followed by a comfortable 5.5 length success over 5½f at Brighton a week ago. Suanni has a win and a place from his last four and Colors Of Freedom was third at Chelmsford 12 days ago, having won here over course and distance on her penultimate run.

My Kind Of Girl has yet to win after 16 attempts, but has made the frame on four of her last six, finishing as runner-up three times. Banana is somewhat unbelievably still a maiden after 35 races, but has been placed 335373 in her last six, Rockley Point was third twice in a row before finishing last of 12 at Newcastle two days ago and Hi Ho Tonto was second of twelve at Southwell earlier this month.

Instant Expert suggests that My Genghis is the one to beat here, but that plenty of others have it in their locker to get involved...

.Lower drawn runners fare well over this course/distance, which is good news for the likes of Banana, Colors Of Freedom and Hi Ho Tonto, whilst early pace is always beneficial over 5f here...

...so that's (1) My Genghis and (5) Colors Of Freedom on my ticket. (4) Suanni also ticks plenty of boxes and will be up front early, so I'll take him at the expense of Hi Ho Tonto and hope I don't regret it.

Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m1½f...

Hillbridge has been third in three of her last four, Izipizi was a good second of eleven at Newbury in a Class 2 race two starts ago, but Magic Dream was last of six in that grade when last seen some 174 days ago, although she was second of fourteen beaten by just a head on debut at Newbury on April. Morrophore was third on debut but has been rested for 106 days after only finishing sixth at Yarmouth on her second outing and Nowhere has made the frame in three of her four starts to date and with all four coming on the A/W she's the most experienced away from turf.

The pace is ikley to come from Izipizi and Hillbridge, although Nowhere and magic Dream did both race prominently last out...

..whilst the lowest drawn runners are Morrophore, Prevasil and Nowhere.

As ever, in these novice events, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but what little I do have steers me towards (3) Hillbridge and (4) Izipizi. I was surprised to see (7) Nowhere out as long as 16/1 and bigger, as she might fare better than that here.

Leg 4 @ 6.15, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

A decent-sized field, but my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the top end of the card with 10yo veteran Muscika and the sole filly in the race, Crimson Angel the ones to beat.

The former isn't the horse he was (obviously), but drops in class here after some decent efforts this summer. He was a runner-up beaten by just a length in a 21-runner field at York before just going down by a nose at Epsom in mid-August. he wasn't quite at it last time lout, but a drop in class against a modest-looking field and he should be on the premises again, as should Crimson Angel.

This 4yr old filly has dropped in the weights to a dangerous mark and having not been beaten by far in her last two outings, could well be ready to break her cold spell. Elsewhere Lihou won three starts ago and Musical Touch has been third twice in his last three. Honour Your Dreams and Aces Wild both have a win and two places from their last five and bottom weight Phoenix Beach's last five read 33232.

The pace is likely to come from four of those mentioned above, so that's another tick for them...

...whilst the pick of the Instant Expert stats look like this...

...so (2) Muscika is a definite pick here. I'm inclined to stick with my gut feeling about (4) Crimson Angel despite her lack of early pace and in what is a difficult decision between the other three runners on that pace graphic, I'll take the consistent placer (11) Phoenix Beach over Honour Your Dreams and Lihou.

Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Diamond Ranger is in good nick finishing 2143 in his last four. Lartigue has made the frame in all three starts but hasn't raced for nine months, Gifted Angel comes here seeking a hat-trick and won over course and distance two starts ago. Speriamo is 122 from her last three, Crown of India has been third in five of his last six in 9-11 runner races. Oosterpark won three races ago, Cock And Bull looks in the grip of the assessor finishing 7th of 12 and 4th of 7 after a run reading 21221123 and Dashinwhitesargent has won two of his last four.

So, plenty of this field come here in decent form, but of them Diamond Ranger, Lartigue, Gifted Angel and Dashinwhiteangel seem most suited to the prevalent conditions...

and I'm just going to omit Lartigue from that quartet, as he'll probably ned a ruin after a nine-month break, leaving me with (1) Diamond Ranger, (3) Gifted Angel & (11) Dashinwhitesargent.

Leg 6 @ 7.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m1½f...

Red Treasure has made the frame in her last two starts, Renesmee's last three read 221 having beaten the re-opposing Lia Rose by half a length here over course and distance 19 days ago, but the runner-up is 1lb better off here, so they're closely matched. Lia Rose herself has finished 237232 in her last six, so she's going well, as is Shahnaz with two wins and a place from her last four. Idyllic won three starts ago and her form reads 233174, Darysina Gold's reads 221245 and Bay Dream Believer has finished 11324 in her last five, so this looks a wide-open if not high-class affair.

Of those mentioned above, Red Treasure, Renesmee, Lia Rose and Darysina Gold all step up a class here. We know Renesmme won over course and distance last time out, Kaaress has also won over this track/trip, but as a hold-up horse might struggle today.

None of this field have a particularly great record at Class 5, but that aside, my Instant Expert shortlist only has four runners on it...

All four were mentioned in my preview and if I'm honest, I'm not sure which to omit, so the easy option is to take all four in the hope we've still not tickets in play after 7pm!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Billy McGarry, (2) Cerulean Summer & (4) Harbour Vision

Leg 2: (1) My Genghis, (4) Suanni & (5) Colors Of Freedom

Leg 3: (3) Hillbridge, (4) Izipizi & (7) Nowhere

Leg 4: (2) Muscika, (4) Crimson Angel & (11) Phoenix Beach

Leg 5: (1) Diamond Ranger, (3) Gifted Angel & (11) Dashinwhitesargent

Leg 6: (2) Red Treasure, (3) Renesmee, (6) Lia Rose & (9) Idyllic

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Best of luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 23/10/24

/in /by

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fontwell, Kempton, Newmarket & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and it's probably time to try an NH meeting or two, so let's head to Fontwell where the going is expected to be soft for their six race card which starts with...

Leg 1 @ 1.55, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m3½f...

It's a maiden hurdle, so no previous winners, of course, but French Symphony has made the frame in two of his three starts and Walden was third of nine in a bumper at Huntingdon last time out, but hasn't raced in over five months. Torre del Oro has actually won a race, landing a 1m4f Class 5 handicap on the A/W at Wolverhampton back in April '23 so I'm not sure whether that bears any relevance here.

Lagertha acquitted herself well in two Class 2 bumpers in the Spring, was 4th of 18 at Cheltenham last time out and drops in class here. La Higuera was also fourth last time out, when making a debut at Ffos Las and he was third in two of his three PTP runs, whilst Tommy The Tank is an interesting debutant, having won his some PTP race by seven lengths and as a 6yo, has clearly been waited with.

From these, I'm going to go with (3) French Symphony, (5) La Higuera & (13) Lagertha, although Tommy The Tank is definitely interesting.

Leg 2 @ 2.30, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m6½f...

What's My Line is 2 from 17 over hurdles and Footloose Man is 1 from 9, whilst the rest of the field are yert to win a race of any kind anywhere. Footloose Man actaully won three starts ago over 2m2f here at Fontwell and has been fourth in two runs since, whereas What's My Line's last win was seven starts ago, when landing a 2m hurdle at Lingfield last November.

Golden Ambition was a runner-up, beaten by a length and a quarter in a 10-runner field here over 2m3½f almost three weeks ago (What's My Line was 8th that day, almost 80 lengths off the pace), whilst Little Talks was third of six over 3m½f at Fakenham beaten by just over two lengths when last seen in early June.

Stage Show has finished fourth in both starts in handicap hurdle contests and having only been beaten by less than 3.5 lengths and less than 5.5 lengths in those races, isn't that far from making the frame and his yard is in good nick right now...

...whilst Footloose Man's yard have a good record at this track from the very few runners they send here...

and with him also dominating the Instant Expert picture...

I'm taking (7) Footloose Man to at least make the frame here, along with (4) Golden Ambition and (9) Stage Show

Leg 3 @ 3.05, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f...

Koenigsstern is an interesting chase debutant after making the frame in two of his three handicap hurdle starts and runs off a mark slightly lower than he had over hurdles and drops in class here. Hatos won back to back handicap chases on heavy ground back in February and if ready should be one to watch on his seasonal reappearance as he drops two classes for his first run for new handler Joe Tizzard. Will Sting's sole chase success came nine starts ago in late January 2023, but he has made the frame in three of his last five, is 5lbs below his last winning mark and also drops in class.

I'd be quite surprised if at least two of those three weren't in the first three home here based on their own form, but Hatos' yard/rider are in good nick generally...

Both of Koenigsstern's placed efforts over hurdles have been on soft ground, Hatos has won twice on heavy ground and Will Sting has made the frame in two of his three races over 2m12f to 2m2f and these three lead the way in each of those categories and over a course and distance where front-runners have fared best, this trio head the pace averages...

...so you'll not be too surprised that I'm taking (3) Koenigsstern, (4) Hatos & (5) Will Sting

Leg 4 @ 3.40, a 5-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m3½f...

Oscars Moonshine has won each of his last three, but has been off the track for five days short of a year, but did win after a 200-day absence this time last year and was a runner-up after a 361-day break this time three years ago, so the layoff might not cost him the race. Colours on Cnavas made all to win back to back races by decent margins in February/March, but was pulled up three weeks later on the hat-trick attempt and was disappointing returning from a 163-day break last month.

Whatsupwithyou closed last season out by finishing 122, culminating in a very good second of fifteen beaten by just half a length in a Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham in mid-April. On that form, you'd be all over him, but he's had six months off, doesn't tend to go too well after a break (7644 after 150+ days) and isn't getting any younger at 10, but I haven't written him off just yet.

Classic Lord won back to back novice hurdles (inc here over 2m2f on heavy ground) last winter and was a runner-up at Sandown in February, but his handicap record reads 5th of 7, last of six and a fall, so he looks vulnerable here, whilst Junkanoo is another who might have lost his way a little. He started his hurdles career last November and finished 2221 in his first four attempts, but his handicap form reads P85 and he quickly faded in a 2m contest last time out.

All of which leads me to preferring (1) Oscars Moonshine & (3) Whatsupwithyou, as I take a chance on their fitness.

Leg 5 @ 4.15, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f...

Samourai One won three starts ago, but was pulled up in his last two races of last season, although the booking of Harry Cobden is interesting. Caeruleum is a nine-race maiden, but has been a runner-up in three of five over fences including his last two and he was only beaten by a neck last time out.

Instant Gambler has been a revelation over fences, winning all three starts. His five-race hurdling career saw him produce very little in five races, after which he went back to the shed for 565 days. He re-emerged as a chaser and won here at Fontwell over today's course and distance in early September and repeated the feat 16 days later, before going on to win over this trip at Hexham next/last time out.

Elsewhere, Eurkash and No Drama were both runners-up on their penultimate outings, but the latter hasn't raced for over three years now whilst the former drops in class here. As you'd expect, Instant Gambler is the Instant Expert eye-catcher, but some of the others have acquitted themselves pretty well under these conditions too...

and I think it's going to be (6) Instant Gambler and (7) Eurkash for me today. I'll also take a punt on Harry Cobden getting a bit more from (3) Samourai One at the expense of Caeruleum

Leg 6 @ 4.45, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ mares novice handicap hurdle over 2m3½f...

Drumlee Spud had finished 22F3 (fell at the last whilst leading) in her forst four starts, but a step up to Grade 2 for her last run was probably a bit much. That said she wasn't disgraced, finishing 7th of 17 on unsuitable ground and I suspect we'll see better from her back down in class on softer ground. Tuscan Rose was third on good to soft at Southwell at the start of the year but was a soft ground winner at Taunton last time out, whilst both Miss Popalong and Lady Salvador were third last time out.

Instant Expert points towards those four going well again today and also suggests that Pennsylvanie might get involved, although her recent form isn't up to much...

From a stats perspective, Tuscan Rose's yard is going very nicely right now...

...and whilst Miss Popalong's yard doesn't send many runners to Fontwell, they do tend to run well here...

I've had a quick look at the market and they've probably got it the same way as I'm thinking, sadly, as I'm going with (1) Drumlee Spud, (3) Tuscan Rose & (5) Miss Popalong. I did think about Lady Salvador, but I'm not entirely convinced about her jumping.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) French Symphony, (5) La Higuera & (13) Lagertha

Leg 2: (4) Golden Ambition, (7) Footloose Man & (9) Stage Show

Leg 3: (3) Koenigsstern, (4) Hatos & (5) Will Sting

Leg 4: (1) Oscars Moonshine & (3) Whatsupwithyou

Leg 5: (3) Samourai One, (6) Instant Gambler & (7) Eurkash

Leg 6: (1) Drumlee Spud, (3) Tuscan Rose & (5) Miss Popalong

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 22/10/24

/in /by

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Exeter, Newcastle & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with the biggest guaranteed pot offered at Newcastle, where the tapeta is said to be standard for a meeting that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.15, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...

None of these come here in great form, but King Lear was a runner-up two starts ago, La Pulga was a winner on his penultimate outing and bottom weight Dramatic Star won three starts back and should find this easier than the two big-money handicaps he has tackled on his last two runs. He also gets a 6lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the contest and has been gelded since his last run.

If we looked solely at A/W form over the last couple of years, La Pulga ticks this box too, as do Chichester and Capital Theory, although most of the field lack relevant A/W experience...

...and with a distinct possibility that he might well try to nick the race from the front if afforded a soft lead...

..then (7) La Pulga must be in with a shout of making the frame. (3) King Lear is the one most likely to give chase and he was only beaten by less than a length on his A/W (and Tapeta) debut two starts ago. The fourth placed horse from that race has since won at Dundalk, so we'll take him along with bottom weight (9) Dramatic Star, who won well at Hamilton in June before finding the two big-money handicaps a bit too warm for him.

Leg 2 @ 4.50, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m2f...

Marama sets the standard here having been a runner-up on debut at Haydock at the end of September 2023 and she was a seven length winner in a similar race to this at Chester a month ago upon her return from a 322-day absence. Yeah, she carries a penalty for that win, but she should come on for having the run, she drops in class here and she did win so convincingly LTO that I have to put top-weight Marama straight on my ticket builder.

King of Lightning ran really well on debut over a mile here in February, going down by just a head as a runner-up of eight, but was only fourth of fifth here over the same trip beaten by 12 lengths next/last time out 18 days ago. He had admittedly been off the track for eight months, so should also come on for the run.

Warm Response was third of ten on debut at Southwell ealier this month and whilst he went pretty well, he wasn't that close to actually landing a blow, going down by 10.5 lengths, meaning that Sword's 4.5 length defeat LTO is probably a better effort, althouh Warm Response does drop in class here.

Things haven't quite clicked in terms of wins for Sword, who has yet to get of the mark in his six starts, despite being sent off at 2/1 or shorter in each of his last four. That said, he has made the frame in three of his last five, so whilst he might not be good enough to win races just yet, there is a level of consistency.

I nailed my colours to the (1) Marama mast early doors and I'll also go with consistent nearly-horse (6) Sword with a slight preference for class-dropper (7) Warm Response as my final pick, but I suspect it could by any of five or six for that third spot.

Leg 3 @ 5.25, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

I suspect this might well boil down to the four runners who've already shown some ability and an aptitude for racing. Everyoneknowsadave won LTO, landing a 7f maiden at Wolverhampton by the thick end of two lengths to get off the mark at the third attempt. Sapphire Valley won comfortably on debut by 2.5 lengths, also in a Wolverhampton 7f maiden and didn't run badly at Chelmsford last time out despite fading late on. He went off too soon and lost two places in the closing to finish fourth. The first two home have both won since.

Shamador only went down by a length and three quarters on his debut as runner-up of twelve over today's course and distance but never really got invlved at Chelmsford next/last time out, whilst Velvet Whisper was also a runner-up on debut just twelve days ago, beaten by a length and ahalf over 7f on the tapeta at Southwell. She was slow away, but really got going late on She finshed strongest of all and grabbed second almost on the line. She should come on for the run and if she gets going a little sooner, could go one better.

Based on the above runners, (11) Velvet Whisper and (2) Sapphire Valley make most appeal and although Everyoneknowsadave's run LTO was better than Shamador's, he's now penalised and the latter has expereince of this course/distance, so (7) Shamador is my marginal preference.

Leg 4 @ 5.55, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

There's no absolute stand-out on form here but Muker was a runner-up two starts ago, whilst Lucky Man's penultimate outing saw him land a 6f handicap at Windsor. Cover Point has a win and a place from his last three with Jenever making the frame in three of his own last four starts including a win over 5f at Sandown and a very good 4th of 22 in the Ayr Silver Cup last time out.

Elegant Erin has won two of her last five outings, Londoner was beaten by three parts of a length over 6f here earlier this month, Alligator Alley has a win and a runner-up finish in his last five and Arecibo was a runner-up two starts ago. Piloto Pardo won three races back, but hasn't been seen for over four months and bottom-weight Cast No Shadow won his penultimate race and has won two of his last five.

So there's quite a few who have shown some fairly recent aptitude and several of these have decent numbers on Instant Expert...

...along with the likes of Badri and Harvanna. Badri looks dangerously weighted here at 5lbs below his last win, but in a wide open race where you could pick four or five for the places and still miss out, I'm going to focus on the ones I mentioned in the preview who also feature on that IE graphic above, so that's Muker, Jenever, Londoner and Arecibo.

On form/recent performance, I'd say that I preferred (8) Jenever and (10) Londoner, whilst of the other two, (12) Arecibo's numbers are better than Muker's above and he's also likely to race further forward than Muker

Leg 5 @ 6.25, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Only Sixcor comes here off the back of a win and he looked comfortable getting home by 2.5 lengths at Musselburgh last week. Elsewhere Meccas Duchess, Rockley Point and Cuban Rock all finished third, but none of this field are in top form if truth be told.

Northerner ran well on her A/W debut to finish a two-lengths fourth of ten here over course and distance at the start of the month and finished strongly, so she might improve here. Elzaal hasn't won for some time, but has made the frame in 13 of 18 races over today's course and distance, winning five times. Stallone also has a decent record over 5f here at Newcastle winning three of eleven attempts, whilst 11yr old veteran Rockley Point rarely wins nowadays (26 defeats on the bounce), but does possess a terrific 63% place strike (17 from 27) over course and distance and he's actually the standout on Instant Expert along with the afore-mentioned Elzaal!

There's not much to be gained from the draw over a straight 5f here at Newcastle, although those drawn mid to high do have a slightly better record, but pace is often the key here. Sadly I think we might get a bit of a falsely run race with no real front runner in the pack...

...meaning that Cuban Rock and Sixcor might be the ones to take it on, especially Sixcor who used these tactics to such good effect last time out.

I'm going to take (5) Sixcor on the basis of that win LTO and the fact that he might set the tempo here. (6) Elzaal and (9) Rockley Point caught the eye on Instant Expert, so I'll take a punt on this pair in what looks another open (if poor) race and at 16/1 with bookies paying four places, I might also back the latter as a small E/W gamble.

Leg 6 @ 6.55, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Again no LTO winners, but Million Thanks, Pursuit of Truth, Alpine Sierra, Sir Maxi and Barleybrown all finished in the first three home with Pursuit of Truth's 2nd of 13 at Kempton on handicap debut and Alpine Sierra's defeat by a neck probably the better two runs from that group of placers.

9yo Jewel Maker hasn't been in the best form of late but along with Barleybrown is a former course and distance winner, having made the frame in half of his ten attempts (winning twice), whilst Barleybrown's C&D record is three wins and a place from seven runs.

And it's Barleybrown who leads the way on 2-year relevant form...

...so I'll take (11) Barleybrown here on that evidence along with both (4) Pursuit of Truth and (5) Alpine Sierra on their last runs plus scope for improvement.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) King Lear, (7) La Pulga & (9) Dramatic Star

Leg 2: (1) Marama, (6) Sword & (7) Warm Response

Leg 3: (2) Sapphire Valley, (7) Shamador & (11) Velvet Whisper

Leg 4: (8) Jenever, (10) Londoner & (12) Arecibo

Leg 5: (5) Sixcor, (6) Elzaal & (9) Rockley Point

Leg 6: (4) Pursuit of Truth, (5) Alpine Sierra & (11) Barleybrown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck today, guys, this looks very tricky.
Chris

 

Tix Picks, Saturday 19/10/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ascot, Catterick, Stratford & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

It's an absolutely huge pot on offer at Ascot, but there other writers on Geegeez to write about Champions' Day whilst I stay in my lane with my bread and butter at tracks like Wolverhampton, where the tapeta is unsurprisingly standard for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.27, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...

Simiyann has finished 212 in his last three, won here 12 days ago and was only beaten by half a length two days ago. Grand Duchess Olga also has a win and two places from her last three (133), whilst Daaris has made the first three home in nine of his last eleven without managing to win any.

Trojan Truth has two wins and an LTO runner-up finish from his last five, whilst Baileys Warrior has a win and two runner-up finishes from her last four and it is this group of five who have been the most consistent over the last couple of years...

We're not going to get much help from the draw over such a long trip and most of this field have pretty similar pace profiles, so we're going to lean on recent form and gut feeling here. Former course winner (1) Simiyann brings the best recent form to the table and (6) Baileys Warrior is the only previous course and distance winner, so I'll take both of those as most likely to go on and win here. Winning isn't something that (3) Daaris does often but he barely runs a bad race and tends to always be involved at the finish, so I'll add him at the expense of Grand Duchess Olga.

Leg 2 @ 5.00, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 1m1½f...

A pretty modest looking field that looks like a two-horse race between Corundum and Show Biz Kid. The former struggled at a higher grade last time out, but no drops back in class to the level that he was only beaten by a length and a half at Southwell on early September, which is probably the best run of any of this group.

Show Biz Kid was also a decent third at Nottingham last time out when just over a length and a half behind Phoenix Passion and a neck behind Drink Dry; this pair have both gone on to win since has has ther horse in sixth place. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't been seen since that run 136 days ago during which time he has been gelded and moved yards.

That said, it's still (1) Corundum and (2) Show Biz Kid here for me and the rest are much of a muchness.

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

We'renotreallyhere has a win and three places from his last six, Apache Canyon has been third in each of his last three and gets a 4lbs weight for age allowance. Harbour Vision was a runner-up two starts ago, Jez Bomb also gets that 4lbs allowance and has two wins and three places from his last eight starts, whilst fellow 3yo and eight-race maiden Miss Dandylion has been third four times.

Instant Expert highlights the following on 2yr place form...

...whilst over a course and distance that rewards front-runners, Harbour Vision and We'renotreallyhere might be the ones the others have to chase...

(6) Harbour Vision is a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year off a mark four pounds higher than today, he's running well, has good 2yr figures above and will be upfront here, so I'll take him along with fellow front-runner (4) We'renotreallyhere. (8) Jez Bomb brings the best recent form to the table today and he completes my selections for this one.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

None of these even made the frame last time out, but the 'form' horse must be course and distance winner Monsieur Patat with his three wins and two places in five races before going down by just over a length and a half at Kempton last time out in a race so competitive that the first eight home of the thirteen runners were only a length and three quarters apart and although the race lacks genuine early pace, he's one of those most likely to be at the head of affairs...

...alongside fellow course and distance winner Guiteau. Both of these also caught my eye on Instant Expert...

...as did Twilight Dancer to a lesser degree. She failed to see the mile out at Lingfield five weeks ago fading out of contention in the final 100yds, but was a decent second at the same track over 7f nine days earlier. Back in April, she actually made all to win over 7f at Brighton, where pace is essential, so that early speed is definitely in her locker. She's 6lbs lower than that win today so (4) Twilight Dancer joins (2) Monsieur Patat and (3) Guiteau on my Tix ticket builder.

Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...

Rosenzoo looks a better horse on the A/W than he does on turf where he has been last home of five and last of six on his last two attempts compared with finishes of 122 from his three visits to Wolverhampton, going down by just a head last time out. Warren Hill wasn't seen at this best at Windsor on his last run, but had previously caught the eye when winning there over 1m2f on her penultimate outing. She missed the break, but ran on strongly to win by a length and a quarter with seemingly plenty in the tank.

Handicap debutant Monsieur Fudge is interesting after a couple of solid efforts making the frame at both Newmarket and Salisbury a year apart and a similar run puts him in contention here. I mentioned Drink Dry earlier in this piece after his runner-up finish at Nottingham in June. He then won at Beverley and was a decent third at Sandown last time out. This quartet would be my form shortlist, whilst the pace averages here are headed by three of this group...

I don't think there's a huge advantage to be gleaned from the draw, but the central area (stalls 4 to 7) seem the best place to be...

...which is where Rosenzoo finds himself, whilst my other three possibles are out in 9, 10 & 11 of 11 stalls! (7) Rosenzoo ticks most boxes here for me and I think that the 4yo filly (1) Warren Hill might actually be the best horse in the race irrespective of today's result, so I'm taking those two. It's then a tricky call between the other two, but I'm going to take a punt on the unexposed handicap debutant (4) Monsieur Fudge, who might improve past Drink Dry here.

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...

Salamanca Lad has won three times from his last seven outings, making the frame in two of the four defeats and can still go well of an unchanged mark of 78. Visibility won here over course and distance twelve days ago after two narrow defeats in third place at this track but at a furlong shorter. getting beat so close over the shorter trip and needing all of today's distance to get home last time out suggests he might need a bit further, but he's bang in form and loves it here at Wolverhampton.

Elsewhere Rocket Warrior has two wins and two places from his last six, Local Bay has four wins and two places from his last nine, Charlies Choice has five top-three finishes (2 wins) from his last seven and Secret World has made the frame in three of his last four.

Three of the six mentioned above head the pace averages...

...with (4) Salamanca Lad likely to try and nick the race from the off and both he and (3) Rocket Warrior are drawn in that stalls 4 to 7 range I mentioned in the previous race, so I'll take both of these based on form, draw and pace.

My other four shortlisted runners look like this on Instant Expert...

...so there's a case to be made for any of them, but I just feel that (7) Visibility brings the best recent form to the table and he really loves it here at Wolverhampton.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Simiyann, (3) Daaris & (6) Baileys Warrior

Leg 2: (1) Corundum & (2) Show Biz Kid

Leg 3: (4) We'renotreallyhere, (6) Harbour Vision & (8) Jez Bomb

Leg 4: (2) Monsieur Patat, (3) Guiteau & (4) Twilight Dancer

Leg 5: (1) Warren Hill, (4) Monsieur Fudge & (7) Rosenzoo

Leg 6: (3) Rocket Warrior, (4) Salamanca Lad & (7) Visibility

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck and I hope you have a great weekend. No column Monday, I'm afraid, I'm tied up with hospital appointments with my elderly mother-in-law, so I'll see you next Tuesday.

Chris

 

Tix Picks, Friday 18/10/24

/in /by

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fakenham, Haydock, Newcastle, Redcar & Uttoxeter.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The big money is (quite rightly) up here in the North West where the going is set to be heavy at Haydock for a short six-race meeting that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 1m...

Yabher's win on debut 34 days ago and Minella Boss' runner-up finish four days earlier are the only two real pieces of form here.

Yabher won more comfortably than the winning margin would suggest, his yard have a good record here at Haydock, a good record with LTO winners and also runners making their second appearance...

Minella Boss' runner-up finish might actually flatter him, it was a poor-looking Galway maiden and he was beaten by some 12 lengths, which is almost as far from winning as Cangofar's 14 length defeat on debut. Condotti went down by 20 lengths on debut, but was 'only' beaten by 8 engths second/last time out, so there was some improvement there, I suppose. Drumcondra was almost 30 lengths adrift a fortnight ago and King Al has yet to run.

The manner of the defeats sufered by all bar Yabher means that King Al might not have to be that good to make the frame here. He's by Al Kazeem, he's a half-brother to Kings Merchant who has won over 5f/6f this year, his dam won over 6f and he cost 50,000 as a 2yo, so someone must fancy him.

It's a bit of a back to front approach, but (5) King All seems to have the least negatives of the rivals to (1) Yabher, so I'll take these two.

Leg 2 @ 2.20, a 7-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 7f...

Karl Carlston won last time out, just holding on to score by a nose at Chelmsford a fortnight ago. Lovely Spirit and Cashlyn Cavalier both finished as runners-up, but the former won her penultimate race (7f) and has made the frame in all five career starts including a soft-ground third on debut in May. She also drops in class here.

Timefall and Ran Amok both won three starts back and the latter is possibly better than her 8th place finish LTO might suggest. She was actually 8th of 20 on a £193,000 Class 2 race at the St Leger meeting, beaten by less than six lengths after having won a Class 2 maiden at Newmarket and having made the frame on handicap debut at the same venue (Class 3), so this represents somewhat of a drop in class for her here and her yard/jockey are on fire right now...

We've only a small set of data, of course, but Lovely Spirit leads the way on Instant Expert and with a low/mid draw favoured here and front-runners generally doing well, the head of the pace averages chart...

...makes it impossible for me not to pick (4) Lovely Spirit from stall 1. I expect (3) Karl Carlston to do his utmost best to try and chase here home, but the main danger might well be top weight (2) Timefall, who probably looks the best of the whole field on paper. I'll take all three here, just in case!

Leg 3 @ 2.55, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 6f...

Nebrook Dream won last time out on handicap debut, finishing a length ad a half clear of the pack on heavy ground. The runner-up has since finished second again, but at Class 4 off a mark just one pound lower than Nebrook Dream is today. Herecomesthebear was third beaten by just over three quarters of a length at Redcar but won three starts ago on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Fortaleza has improved position in each of three races since finishing fifth on debut (5432) and was a neck ahead of Herecomesthebear (who is now 2lbs better off) last time out and Sir Palamedes won two starts ago, also on heavy ground at Ffos Las.

As you'd expect off such an inexperienced field, those results I mentioned above translate into green boxes on Instant Expert...

Two of those mentioned above feature in the top three of the pace chart...

, but when push comes to shove, I want to be on those who have won on heavy ground ie (3) Sir Palamedes, (5) Nebrook Dream and (9) Herecomesthebear. I do worry about the improving Fortaleza upsetting the applecart, but she did only beat Herecomesthebear by a neck last time out and she's 2lbs worse off here, so on paper the palcings should be reversed, all things being equal of course.

Leg 4 @ 3.30, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 5f...

Moonstone Boy was only 9th of 17 at York last time but had two wins and three places from his previous three outings, Never Dark won his penultimate race, Trilby has been the runner-up in each of his last two and has five top-three finishes from his last six runs. Our Absent Friends has two wins and a place from his last four starts and Count Dorsay won two races ago, so quite a few are in decent if not winning form.

Trilby and Moonstone Boy have both won on heavy ground already and the former is two from four here at Haydock. Low drawn late finishers and high drawn front runners seem to be the way forward here, which ticks boxes for Trilby and Secret Mistral...

...and puts both Moonstone Boy and Our Absent Friends into the mix. And with Moonstone Boy, Never Dark, Trilby and Secret Mistral all dropping in class today, I have to put (4) Trilby on my ticket builder as he has ticked every box so far. I'll also take bottom weight (8) Secret Mistral on pace/draw plus a drop in class and in a toss-up between Moonstone Boy and Our Absent Friends on countback, I think that (2) Moonstone Boy just about shades it down in class, in decent form, a former heavy ground winner and scores well on pace/draw.

Leg 5 @ 4.05, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

Drama won at Kempton last time out where he has produced his best form. and is 1251 from his last four, Hour by Hour was only sixth LTO beaten by four lengths, but was seeking a hat-trick that day, whilst Mercurial was only narrowly beaten by a neck at Roscommon four days ago. Heavy ground brings Hyperfocus to the fore with his two wins and he has won four of ten starts here at Haydock over the years, making the frame in two of the six defeats as well.

More recent place form puts Woven, Mercurial and Hour By Hour firmly in the picture...

The pace here is likely to be set by (3) Hyperfocus, (6) Mercurial and (8) Hour By Hour...

...and all three have been mentioned positively above, so I'll side with this trio.

Leg 6 @ 4.40, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

Firebrand and On The River both won last time out in the last seven days and the latter is unpenalised for comfortably landing an 18-runner apprentice handicap on soft ground at York and he's the only runner in the field with two wins from their last six outings. Elsewhere there's not much recent form of note; Autumn Festival was a runner-up in a poor seller and Pearl Eye was beaten by just a head on his last handicap run at Chester a month ago.

Pearl Eye is of further interest here, because he has three wins and a place from six efforts over course and distance, including a win on his only career run on heavy ground. Chuck in two wins and a runner-up finish from six soft ground runs and you've got one not fearful of underfoot conditions. He hasn't the best recent win record at Class 3, but it's no better/worse than the rest of this field, which looks more like a Class 4 contest anyway, but his other two-year win stats are impressive enough...

The pace is likely to be set by Firebrand here...

...and that early dart allied to his good form might well be enough to carry him through for a place.

(8) On The River is clearly the one to beat based on that win at York last time out, but (6) Firebrand is in good nick and might try to make all here, so both go on my Tix builder along with course/distance specialist (4) Pearl Eye.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Yabher & (5) King Al

Leg 2: (2) Timefall, (3) Karl Carlston & (4) Lovely Spirit

Leg 3: (3) Sir Palamedes, (5) Nebrook Dream & (9) Herecomesthebear

Leg 4: (2) Moonstone Boy, (4) Trilby,  & (8) Secret Mistral

Leg 5: (3) Hyperfocus, (6) Mercurial & (8) Hour By Hour

Leg 6: (4) Pearl Eye, (6) Firebrand & (8) On The River

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 17/10/24

/in /by

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Southwell & Wincanton

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

..with the largest pot offered at Southwell, but I think I'll head for Chelmsford instead where the polytrack has been deemed as standard for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.35, a 5-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 1m2f...

Devils Advocate started slowly on debut at Newmarket last month, but soon got the hang of things to finish well in third place, some 12 lengths clear of the next horse and he takes a drop in class here. Rogue Diplomat was also third on debut three weeks ago, beaten by less than a length at Beverley after also taking a little while to get going.

Both of these stayed on well and should both appreciate a step up in trip today, as hopefully will Kate O'Riley. She didn't go quite as well as the pair above in a 3.5 length defeat and had to be taken to the start in a red hood, so she probably sits behind the other two in the pecking order with a watching brief advised about newcomers Blue Laced and Navalanche.

Class-dropping (1) Devil's Advocate plus (3) Rogue Diplomat for the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Early Morning Dew was beaten by four lengths over course and distance last time out, but had finished 212 in his previous three starts. Switchel was a decent third at Southwell over 1m4f, fading late on but now drops back in trip and class. Gone Rogue also drops in class after back to back runner-up finishes at Musselburgh.

Oriental Art has made the frame in three of his last four, Myna has two runner-up finishes from his last five and drops in class and Sun Festival showed ability in the last few months of 2023 finishing 1223 on the All-Weather. He hasn't been the same yet this season after two runs following an eight month break, but a switch back from turf might be the key for him.

Jenson Benson has only won four of his thirty-five career starts, but all four wins have been here at Chelmsford, including one over course and distance with Early Morning Dew and Sun Festival also previous winners at this track/trip and all three look seemingly well suited by expected conditions...

Early pace is often key here at Chelmsford and the top of the pace charts looks like this...

...and with those three all already mentioned earlier on either form or Instant Expert, I'll put all three on my ticket builder. Sun Festival looks a better horse to me than the 28/1 odds might suggest and with bookies paying four places, a small E/W bet might be in order too. I also can't ignore Early Morning Dew from Instant Expert and he has been running well, so I'm taking four here from a big field; (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival

Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

H Key Lails was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance on his last start over course and distance, but he was beaten by the re-opposing Bold Suitor that day. Bold Suitor has since raced twice finishing as runner-up over course and distance here over this trip on both occasions and he's actually better offat the weights than H Key Lails, because the latter's jockey now only claims 3lbs instead of the five she did last time, but we're talking small margins here and both remain closely matched and in form.

Charlatan hasn't raced since since finishing as runner-up at Leicester in early July, but his results this year (311130322) have been tremendous and if race-ready could go well again here and he completes the form shortlist, whilst Instant Expert suggests that Drifts Away might also be in the mix...

H Key Lails has the benefit of the low draw, as does Drifts Away, whilst the head of the pace averages looks like this..

All of which points to several horses having a really good chance, but here's where I'm at. I think that (4) Bold Suitor is the best horse in the race right now and if I take him, I have to take (1) H Key Lails as they're so closely matched and then it's any one from three or four and I think that if the lay-off doesn't affect him too much, the (3) Charlatan is the most reliable/consistent option.

Leg 4 @ 6.15, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Only Profitman and Wrath of Hector made the frame last time out and the former is one of two course & distance winners (along with top-weight Yoshimi) in the race. he comes here after being beaten by just a neck over track and trip three weeks ago and this looks a weaker race.

Wrath of Hector won at Yarmouth three starts ago and was a staying-on third over 6f here last time out, so the extra furlong might work in his favour here, whilst from a pace/draw perspective, Zachary looks best off...

...and Chelmsford seems to be where he runs best with two wins and a place from six visits. He'd be an unlikely winner here, of course, having lost sixteen on the bounce but he is 8lbs below his last winning mark and might be better than an 11/1 fifth favourite position would suggest and I think I'll chance my arm with (10) Zachary as a back-up to the form pair of (7) Profitman and (8) Wrath Of Hector

Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

Twitch was fourth of ten, beaten by just over two lengths over course and distance last time out and had finished 211 in his three previous outings (all over C&D), so may need a small drop back in weight to get winning again and whilst he's in good nick, my initial thoughts were that the bookies have this right, by having three of the top four in the weights (Local Music, Bell Shot & How Impressive) as the market leaders witht he first two on the card both dropping in class.

Local Music is 22414121 in her last eight starts and is 4lbs well in under a penalty after a four length win here over this trip a week ago and should be the one to beat on form. Bell Shot has a win and three runner-up finishes from his last seven races and How Impressive was third at Thirsk in early September before going down by just a head here over 6f last time out. he stayed on well that day, grabbed second late on but just couldn't quite get to the winner. The extra furlong could help here and The Waiting Game (who was third that day, half a length further back) has since won at Kempton.

Instant Expert backs up my thoughts about Local Music and How Impressive, but seems to show Twitch in a better light than Bell Shot...

There's not much between them in terms of pace with Twitch slightly edging it...

...but Bell Shot does have the better draw. I don't think that either of these beat the other two mentioned and I'm sticking with my 'gut feeling' by taking (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive here with Twitch the danger.

Leg 6 @ 7.15, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Simiyann certainly didn't look like a 13-race maiden when rompong home by six lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago as a drop in trip and the wearing of a visor seemed to help and I'm not sure a 5lb pemalty stops him making the frame here, but Smokey Malone was a good third over this trip at Southwell last time out and was also third on his last run over this course and distance.

Further down the weights carrying 24lbs and 14lbs less than the above pair is Drouthy Neebor, a six-race maiden who has prgressed the further he has been asked to run. Ineffective over a mile, he was third of seven over 1m2f at Lingfield in early September and backed that up by finishing third of eleven next/last time ut at Kempton and might be worth another look stepped up further in trip.

Buxted Reel races off a mark a pound lower than when the runner-up in this race last year and whilst he's winless in six since, he has finished third over 1m4f at Leicester and third over 1m5f at Bath this summer, so gets the trip and is well weighted. There's no real advantage/disadvantage from the draw (as you'd expect over 1m6f!) nor the pace here and most of them run the same way anyway, which should mean the 'better' horses make the frame, but there's a clear indicator from Instant Expert...

...so I'm on (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone here. I no doubts that Drouthy Neebor will go well over 1m6f at some point, I just hope it's not today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Devil's Advocate & (3) Rogue Diplomat

Leg 2: (1) Early Morning Dew, (5) Gone Rogue, (9) Myna & (12) Sun Festival

Leg 3: (1) H Key Lails, (3) Charlatan & (4) Bold Suitor

Leg 4: (7) Profitman, (8) Wrath Of Hector & (10) Zachary

Leg 5: (1) Local Music, (2) Bell Shot & (4) How Impressive

Leg 6: (1) Simiyann, (2) Buxted Reel & (3) Smokey Malone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 16/10/24

/in /by

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Nottingham, Wetherby & Worcester.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

If I'm honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the meetings today, but the biggest pot is at Kempton, where the polytrack will be standard to slow for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.13, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo Nursery over 1m...

Freak Encounter and Keep Singing were fourth and seventh in a heavy ground race that I covered yesterday at Leicester and I'm not sure if they'll run here or not, but if they do I'd expect the former to beat the latter. and Freak Encounter's recent form suggest he could make the frame here in a poorer race than yesterday.

Montbeliarde was a runner-up here at Kempton over 7f in August and would have been much closer than his five length defeat at Salisbury last time out had he not been badly hampered inside the final furlong.

Stat-wise, the Osborne's (Freak Encounter) do well here at Kempton...

...as do the team behind Spirit Lead Me who drops two classes...

...so I'll side with (3) Montbeliarde, (4) Spirit Lead Me & (9) Freak Encounter here and hope the latter turns out.

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 2yo Nursery over 1m...

D Day Harley R was a decent third at Leicester last time out and in first-time cheekpieces could get closer to getting off the mark here. Corpus Juris has been solid/consistent to date and despite failing to win any of seven starts, he tends not to get beaten by far, whilst Good Call was third in that Leicester race featuring the two runners from the above race. She could go well here too, but like the pair in the previous race, isn't guaranteed to turn up. She's the stablemate of Keep Singing, so I suspect we'll either see both or we'll see none.

There's not a great deal of pace in the contest, although Corpus Juris made the running in two of his last four and Good Call does like to race prominently...

D Day Harley R's team have a good record here at Kempton...

...and Corpus Juris' stable aren't averse to quickly turning horses around...

...giving me (2) D Day Harley R, (4) Corpus Juris & (8) Good Call here again in the hope that the latter runs.

Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Only six of the thirteen runners have raced previously and of those Hott Shott (a win and a place from three starts) and Eupator (third on debut a fortnight ago) have run best so far.

Hott Shott is actually down four classes after finishing fifth (5 lengths down) in the Group 3 Solario at Sandown last time out and a similar run here should actually be more than enough to get back to winning ways and his yard have had a decent year here at Kempton...

The obvious call here would be to take both (1) Hott Shott and (4) Eupator here, whilst of the debutants, you've always got to fear Godolphin runners trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick anyway, but the relevant stats at play here for (8) Montezuma are very eye-catching...

...(1) Hott Shott, (4) Eupator & (8) Montezuma is the play for me here.

Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Fillies Maiden over 7f...

Dark Lyric was a runner-up over 1m here last month, virtually making all and having been caught really late on despite being a length clear with half a furlong to run, so the drop back in trip gives her a real chance of winning today. Faro di Notte didn't really get going on soft ground at Sandown last time out, but had made the frame in three races on the bounce prior to that effort and if running to those levels could be involved here if handling the switch to the A/W.

First Kiss was a solid third of ten here over course and distance in a Class 4 Novice event almost a year ago, but then didn't race again until ten months later. There a combination of the lay-off, a step up in trip and a step up in class all probably contributed to her finishing last of nine, but she should come on for that run, she's back down in trip and down two classes here and I suspect/hope we see a different horse today and she is backed by a host of data...

Of those with race experience, they'd be my shortlist, whilst the breeding of newcomer Born To Lead will interest people too, although his yard's record with debutants isn't the best...

...so I'll stick with (2) Dark Lyric, (4) Faro di Notte & (6) First Kiss here.

Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 2, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Another race full of debutants (8 of the 13 runners have yet to race!) and of those with experience Darn Hot Mystery, Cartwheel and Rosso Levanto would be the three most likely to go well here after their runs so far.

Darn Hot Mystery was 3rd of 14 over course and distance here on debut two months ago and followed that up by finishing 2nd of 7 at Lingfield a month ago, beaten by just a short head when caught pretty much on the line. The third placed horse has made the frame again since and Zizi, who was fifth, has won at Wolverhampton recently.

Cartwheel plugged on well to finish third of nine at Beverley on debut four weeks ago and the runner-up has since re-appeared to win at Wolverhampton whilst Rosso Levanto was also third on debut eight days ago battling through the mud at Leicester in a four length defeat. She led for much of that race and was only headed inside the last of the 8.5 furlongs, so the drop back in trip on slightly easier going might help.

There's not a great deal jumping out from the racecard trainer/jockey stats aside from poor records with debutants for the yards running Lieutenant Lily, Prima Diva, Rye & Annsar, so a safety first/better the devil you know approach from me and the coward's way out with (4) Darn Hot Mystery, (12) Cartwheel & (14) Rosso Levanto here.

Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Fillies Handicap over 1m3f...

This is probably the most open and possibly the best race of the six we're covering, despite it only being a Class 5 handicap, as you can find positives about all of them...

Ellexis won last time out, but hasn't raced for nine months, Speriamo won two starts ago and was a runner-up last time out, whilst Loving Look has five top-three finishes (1 win) from her six starts to date. True Wisdom was a runner-up on her penultimate outing, Miss Bielsa returns from a four month-break after a win and a place from her first three runs and although Salamanca City was only 6th of 8 on soft ground at Leicester five weeks ago, she had finished 3221 in her previous four handicap outings.

Placeholder has two wins and a place from her six starts so far (2 from 4 on the A/W), nine-race maiden Bas Bleu has finished in the first three home in all but one of her last seven starts and handicap debutant Ever Hopefull has been third in each of her last two with bottom weight Alvesta probably the weakest in the field, but even she has four top-three placings from her last ten starts.

Most of the field drop in class today, which might put Ellexis, Ever Hopefull and Alvesta at a slight disadvantage. As for relevant past form, the place stats on Instant Expert highlight...

True Wisdom is interesting here with a good draw and he also heads the average pace scores after these efforts...

...and as I think he might be better than an 8/1 shot, (4) True Wisdom goes on my Tix Ticket Builder along with (3) Loving Look who brings arguably the best recent form to the table, having won here over 1m4f on her last A/W outing and another who looks like she might be better than her current odds is (2) Speriamo; she won over 1m2f at Chelmsford in mid-September and still had enough in the tank to get within half a length of winning again over the same trip at Newmarket two days later. Chorus was a neck further back in third that day and she has since won a Class 2 handicap over 1m4f, so 12/1 about Speriamo looks big to me and I'll probably also have an E/W bet on her here.

*

All of which gave me...

Leg 1: (3) Montbeliarde, (4) Spirit Lead Me & (9) Freak Encounter [Freak Encounter was withdrawn, so I added (5) Beauhaather as a last-minute replacement on the back of a promising effort over C&D LTO]

Leg 2: (2) D Day Harley R, (4) Corpus Juris & (8) Good Call

Leg 3: (1) Hott Shott, (4) Eupator & (8) Montezuma

Leg 4: (2) Dark Lyric, (4) Faro di Notte & (6) First Kiss

Leg 5: (4) Darn Hot Mystery, (12) Cartwheel & (14) Rosso Levanto

Leg 6: (2) Speriamo, (3) Loving Look & (4) True Wisdom

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



As ever, the very best of luck, I fear I might need it today!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 15/10/24

/in /by

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Leicester, Market Rasen, Newcastle & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Newcastle, but there's the uncertainty of heavy ground at Leicester, so we'll head there for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 2.28, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Questionable had finished 232 in her three runs before a comfortable win at Sandown last time out, so she certainly wasn't winning out of turn and despite a hike in weights, she's clearly the form horse here. Phone Tag didn't seem to be going anywhere under Hugo Palmer, but ran a very fine second of six on heavy ground at Chester on his yard debut for Kevin Frost a month ago behind a horse who loves soft/heavy ground and he takes a drop in class today.

Elsewhere Orbital is 1225 in her last four starts and drops in trip after failing to see 1m3f out at Kempton recently, whilst 8-race maiden Another Beautiful cams as close as she has to winning so far, when only beaten by a length as third of eleven over this trip at Beverley three weeks ago.

From a stats perspective, Questionable's yard are in good nick and have a decent record here at Leicester despite not sending many runners here; they also do well at keeping LTO winners running well...

Low draws are often favourable here and this along with Instant Expert brings Croeso Cymraeg into the equation too...

...and it might be worth chancing the veteran (1) Croeso Cymraeg under these conditions as a back-up to (2) Questionable leaving me to pick from Phone Tag, Orbital and Another Beautiful and I think the manner of that run last time out from (3) Phone Tag just tips the balance his way.

Leg 2 @ 2.58, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 1m...

A fairly modest affair here with only three horses ever having made the frame. Keep Singing probably shades it on form having finished 3272 in her last four, whilst Freak Encounter has been third in each of his last two starts with Keep Singing's stablemate Good Call third two starts ago and fourth last time out when these three met at Southwell sixteen days ago...

Keep Singing is raised 2lbs for that run, but is probably still the one to best here and Freak Encounter should still hold Good Call on the basis on that last run and although you could make a case for the likes of Capricorn King who drops in trip here, I think I'll stick with the closely matched trio who have shown some recent form ie (3) Keep Singing, (7) Freak Encounter & (8) Good Call

Leg 3 @ 3.28, a 5-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...

Five run here, but three are on debut and could be anything/nothing, of course. To be fair to the pair with racecourse experience, they've done OK so far without ripping trees up. (3) Maids Head has been third on both starts, beaten by six lengths each time whilst (4) My Mate Beattie improved upon her debut effort by coming home strongly to finish as a runner-up at Newcastle three weeks ago and I think I'll just bank on one or both of these getting home in the first two!

Leg 4 @ 3.58, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 7f...

A Major Payne was second of eleven at Windsor over 1m½f on soft ground last time out, whilst Swift Storm has been third of twelve over 7f in both career starts, the latest being on soft ground. Sadly, neither of them have seen a racecourse for over five months and might well need the run, although Swift Storm did have 173 days between his first two outings!

The above layoffs might well open the door for LTO winner Arolla to double up; she was pretty comfortable at Ffos Las on debut in July getting home by more than three lengths despite starting a little slowly. Tex, Doctor Awtaad and Darkest Intention all showed very little on debut and would need to improve dramatically to beat the above trio despite two of them have been off track, whilst the market isn't keen on debutant Stone Forest at all.

A bit of a cop out here, but it's (1) Arolla, (2) A Major Payne & (5) Swift Storm for me from this one.

Leg 5 @ 4.30, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3-4yo seller over 7f...

Trainer Jennie Candlish won this race last year and her runner here Alzahir looks the one to beat today. he's rated some 12 to 27lbs better than all of his rivals but only carries 7lbs more than the bottom-weight Gaiety Musical. Alzahir's last eleven races have been 9 x Class 2 and 2 x Class 3 and he really should be too good for the field today.

Very few of these come here in any sort of form, highlighted by the fact that the best 'recent' runs are Rajwaan's 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 2 lengths on heavy at Haydock followed by a win at Southwell. The fly in the ointment here being that the Southwell run was two weeks short of two years ago!

Classy Boy's yard is in good nick...

...which is a positive and he scores well on Instant Expert, as does Blufferonthebus...

Lower drawn runners fare well here, so that's another tick for both Alzahir and Blufferonthebus, but it's Liberty Mountain who gets the rail, whilst the recent pace scores look like this...

...so I'm with (1) Classy Boy, (2) Blufferonthebus & (5) Alzahir. I'll keep an eye out for Rajwaan, who might prove to be better than his 50/1 ticket if he's not too rusty!

Leg 6 @ 5.03, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Former course and distance winner Spirit Genie won on heavy ground at Haydock last time out for a third win in six starts and on the basis of that run should be the one to beat today. Executive Decision was badly outpaced over 6f and has been getting close without winning over that trip recently so should appreciate the extra furlong here as she seems to do all her best work late on (not ideal at Leicester, sadly).

Pearle D'Or hasn't raced for four months, but when last seen ran pretty well on quicker ground than this. That said, he was a winner over this trip/class at Newbury when last faced with heavy ground and is only rated 3lbs higher here.

It Just Takes Time comes here in good heart after his last three runs have seen him finish as runner-up over 6f at Ripon beaten by just half a length flollowed by a gutsy two-length defeat as 4th of 18 at York last month, but he stepped up in trip last time out and made all to win by a length and a quarter at Beverley three weeks ago.

These four would be my initial ones to watch based on recent handicap form, but I'm also drawn to handicap debutant Mahato, who remains unexposed after just three runs. He won a 15-runner, Class 5 Novice event over on debut at Windsor a year ago, getting home by more than two lengths on soft ground, before an A/W debut at Newcastle four weeks alter saw him a respectable fourth of twelve up in class. His next/last run was a month ago (307 days after his second run!), where despite the layoff and not getting near he winner, he was second home of seven on standard to slow at Kempton in a strung out field and could be dangerously weighted here and his jockey Cieran Fallon has had a good year on the Haggas team's horses...

All five runners I mentioned above score well on Instant Expert, as does class dropper Burdett...

It Takes Time and Executive Decision seem to have the best of the draw here and with (7) It Just Takes Time having a pace profile like this...

...he has to be on my Tix ticket builder. (1) Spirit Genie is the form horse and scores best on IE, so he's in too along with (2) Executive Decision who just edges out Pearle D'Or who might need a run and Mahato who lacks experience.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Croeso Cymraeg, (2) Questionable & (3) Phone Tag

Leg 2: (3) Keep Singing, (7) Freak Encounter & (8) Good Call

Leg 3: (3) Maids Head & (4) My Mate Beattie

Leg 4: (1) Arolla, (2) A Major Payne & (5) Swift Storm

Leg 5: (1) Classy Boy, (2) Blufferonthebus & (5) Alzahir.

Leg 6: (1) Spirit Genie, (2) Executive Decision & (7) It Just Takes Time

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 14/10/24

/in /by

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hereford, Kempton, Musselburgh, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The largest pot is at Wolverhampton where the tapeta is said to standard for...

Leg 1 @ 4.25, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

No LTO winners here, but fast finisher Lets Go Hugo and Phoenix Beach were both runners-up and the latter has finished 332 in his last three starts (all here at Wolverhampton). Blue Force was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last four, as does Aces Wild who drops in class here.

Of those four, only Blue Force has yet to win over 5f here at Wolverhampton, although he did so at Newcastle a month ago. Betweenthesticks and class-dropper Maharajas Express are also former course and distance winners and all six runners named so far show well on Instant Expert...

...with Aces Wild, Let's Go Hugo & Phoenix Beach the eye-catchers from that. This drawn lower have fared better over this track and trip in the past, but as with most 5f races, pace is key. Symbol of Hope is the most likely from-runner today, but of my shortlisted six, the head of the pace ratings looks like this...

...and with pace having with the same top three as Instant Expert, I have to side with (1) Aces Wild, (4) Let's Go Hugo & (5) Phoenix Beach

Leg 2 @ 5.00, an 8-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 5f...

Binadham is the only former winner in the field and is top rated at 91. He won a Class 5 maiden on debut at Yarmouth in June and backed that up with a creditable 6th of 13 in an Ascot Group 2 race in June. Since then, he has been well beaten at both Gr 2 and Listed class and now drops back to Class 3. Bonnies Boy was a runner-up in each of his first three starts (beaten narrowly in races 2 & 3) before finding a Class 2 handicap a little warm for him next/last time out and he also drops in class here.

Colocolo has made the frame twice in his four starts, Veblen Good was a runner-up on debut at Sandown a month ago and Lucid was also an LTO runner-up, beaten at Kempton but hasn't raced for 166 days now. Optimistic and Queenofdestruction have yet to race and the latter is the bottom weight here and was also a £100k purchase at the Breeze-Up.

Colocolo and Bonnies Boy have both led/raced prominently in their last two starts which is a positive over 5f here at Wolverhampton and of those two I prefer (2) Bonnies Boy. There was much to like about (6) Veblen Good's debut and with these stats behind her...

...I'd be inclined to go with debutante (8) Queenofdestruction at the expense of recently-disappointing Binadham.

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Mesaafi has made the frame in four of his last six, Glitterella has been runner-up in two of her last three and handicap debutant Borealis Thunder has been third in two of her three career starts, but the field is short on wins, although Rusheen Boy did go 112 in December/January prior to three modest efforts (506) more recently and he steps up in class here. Ziggy's Queen is down three classes today and Pals Battalion & State of Madness also both drop in class.

The consistent (2) Mesaafi is a fairly easy pick in a fairly open race and I think (6) Pals Battalion might just be the best of the rest. He's also pretty consistent and as ever, his yard/jockey are going well...

As for the rest, you can make a case for and against all of them, but I think that dropping three classes here might just tip things towards (3) Ziggys Queen.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Vaunted won at Bath last time out and drops three classes here. She's noted as a fast finisher and has finished 231U31 in her last six outings. Sonmarg doesn't win often but has been the runner-up in four of her last seven and also finished third in one of them, so he's a consitent placer.

Em Jay Kay won three starts ago, Novak and Snooze Lane both finished third last time out, whilst Buttercross Flyer and A Pint of Bear were runners-up over course and distance, the latter by just a short head.

(2) Sonmarg has got the low draw that seems favoured here and Instant Expert highlights his consistency...

...so I'll be adding him to my Tix ticket builder along with (5) Novak on that evidence above. Elsewhere, I like that recent near-miss by (12) A Pint of Bear over this track/trip, but also the recent form of (10) Vaunted. The latter represents more of a gamble, as she has very little A/W experience and all her best work has been at 5f/5½f, so she misses out here and I Hope it's not a decision that comes back to bite me.

Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...

My initial thoughts here were that this could well be a two-horse race between the six year old mares Baileys Warrior and Addosh with the other six runners scrapping for the £699 third prize

Addosh proved her stamina in a runner-up finish over 2m1f in a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot last month when only beaten by a neck, whilst Baileys Warrior won over this track and trip three weeks ago for a second win in her last twelve outings. That doesn't sound prolific, but in the ten races she failed to win, she was a runner-up five times and finished third once, so she has made the frame in 66.6% of her last dozen races.

This level of consistency is highlighted by Instant Expert, which also suggests that Easy Equation might be the best of the rest...

The truth is that I can't see both (1) Addosh and (2) Baileys Warrior failing to make the frame, so I won't add a third pick, but I might well have a cheeky E/W punt on Easy Equation who looks quite long to me at a generally available 25/1. After all, this approach worked well for me on Saturday with 40/1 shot Bowman.

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

We end with another very open-looking race bereft of recent winners, although Rubellite and Kenstone come here after being runners-up last time out and despite being 11 yrs old, the latter is still running pretty well at this level, making the frame in six of eleven starts over the last year.

Fitz Perfectly was third last time out and Olympic Quest is a former course and distance winner. She has struggled of late with three heavy defeats at Bath in her last four starts, but was only beaten by 2 lengths over today's track and trip three starts ago and might relish a return to the Tapeta, having won here six back in January off 2lbs higher than today.

Over the last two years, Van Zant, Port Noir, Forever Proud, Rubellite and Kenstone set the standard on the A/W, although Port Noir's number are marred by a series of unplaced efforts over shorter trips here at Wolverhampton...

...and with (3) Van Zant also a confirmed front-runner...

...he has to go on my tickets. The manner of (8) Rubellite's runner-up finish at Newcastle suggests that she could go well here too. He won here over 1m1½f at the turn of the year and looks like coming back into form after a recent switch to a more prominent running style. Forever Proud is the likely favourite here today, but she lacks consistency and the results say she has only really run well over 1m2f at Lingfield. This is a shorter trip on a different surface, so I think I'll stick with the consistent old-timer (9) Kenstone for this one.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Aces Wild, (4) Let's Go Hugo & (5) Phoenix Beach

Leg 2: (2) Bonnies Boy, (6) Veblen Good & (8) Queenofdestruction

Leg 3: (2) Mesaafi, (3) Ziggys Queen & (6) Pals Battalion

Leg 4: (2) Sonmarg, (5) Novak & (12) A Pint of Bear

Leg 5: (1) Addosh & (2) Baileys Warrior

Leg 6: (3) Van Zant, (8) Rubellite & (9) Kenstone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 12/10/24

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Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Chepstow, Hexham, Newmarket & York.

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Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with a couple of huge pots on offer at Newmarket & York. My confidence/ego has taken a bit of a battering of late, so I'm going to avoid those high profile meetings and get back to basics with a trip to Chelmsford, where the going is predictably standard for our six races that begin with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Gilet is 2212 in his last four and was narrowly beaten in a Class 4 handicap last time out. He drops in class here and has a stack of stats to suggest he'll go well again today...

Antonin Dvorak was a runner-up over 7f at Musselburgh on debut in late August and then went one better to win over the same track and trip next/last time out in mid-September. He also drops in class and his yard looks in decent nick right now...

I suspect that this race will be between this pair although Master Technician also drops in class after finishing as a runner-up at Bath in mid-September, beaten by three quarters of a length but a neck in front of Tap Dancer who won at Bath yesterday. Oasis Sunrise was a runner-up over today's trip at Chester in mid-June, headed pretty much on the line and a repeat of that effort puts her close again today.

I'm definitely with (1) Gilet and (2) Antonin Dvorak for this one and I think I'll also take (11) Oasis Sunrise, as she offers mor value than Master Technician at current odds.

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Handicap over 7f...

Joint top-weight Twitch brings the best form to the table, having finished 211 in his last three starts, all over today's course and distance and although this will be a little tougher up in weight again, there's no reason why he shouldn't be in the frame based on his performances since switching to the Polytrack, especially as main rival Lady Wingalong is now a non-runner.

Dumfries is the only other runner in the field to have made the frame last time out, coming home third of eleven over this trip at Wolverhampton in a niggly race a fortnight ago. Elsewhere both Nemorum and the fast-finisher Wilde And Dandy are former course and distance winners. The former won over C&D five starts and almost a year ago and the latter drops in class today and is now 2lbs below his last winning mark.

The 2-year place stats give him and a few others some hope of making the frame today too...

Matt Bisogno often refers to Chelmsford as a bit of a speedway track, where pace is often key to success and yet again Twitch is the one to chase...

...and there's a real danger/possibility that he runs away with this one. (1) Twitch is the one for me here and I'll supplement him with (8) Dumfries after his gutsy run at Wolverhampton last time out with (5) Wilde And Dandy the backup plan.

Leg 3 @ 5.20, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

On form alone, Baraq sets the standard here. After only finishing 6th of 8 over this course and distance on debut 13 months ago, he has made the frame in 6 of his 7 starts, winning his last two. Red Hat Eagle returns to the A/W and 2 and 4 length defeats on turf to hopefully pick up where left off finishing 31 in his last two A/W efforts over a mile, including a course/distance win here in July. He's A Gentleman finished 102 in his last three, Eagle Day was also an LTO runner-up and both King Of Charm and Berkshire Nugget won their penultimate races.

Several of the horses named above are amongst my 2-year place stats eyecatchers...

Baraq also likes to set the tempo of the race, but he might have company up top today...

...although I suspect Hosanna Power (down in trip and just 1 lb above last winning mark) will prove a bigger threat than the nine-race maiden The Hun here and that early pace might just be enough to propel (5) Hosanna Power into the frame (for a sixth time in seven starts) behind (2) Baraq. Of the others, I think (3) Red Hat Eagle makes most appeal based on his A/W stats above. He's a former course and distance winner and now drops two classes after a decent 5th of 14 in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Ayr, where he was little more than two lengths off the winner and the horse immediately in front of him has since been a Class 3 runner-up.

Leg 4 @ 5.50, a 14-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

Absolutely Buzzing got off the mark at the fifth time of asking when landing a similar Class 6 handicap over this track/trip last time out. She's up 6lbs here, but did win rather cozily that day and the two immediately behind her have made the frame again since. Thomas Equinas has also won over course and distance but his 2024 form (997) is unrecognisable from his last four 2023 results (1101), so something may be amiss there.

Bottom weight Bold Suitor was a winner and then a runner-up in his last two starts, both over course and distance. Thoughtful Gift won two starts ago and both Havana Smoke and Fariha finished third in handicaps last time out. All of these horses show up well on Instant Expert too, giving them all a chance of making the frame with the obvious caveat that whilst Thomas Equinas clearly has ability, it isn't showing right now...

...and I probably should have just omitted him from this list. Havana Smoke and Fariha might not be helped by a high draw although the non-runners here move this pair from stalls 12 & 13 to a slightly nearer 10 & 11 and LTO winner Absolutely Buzzing is now as low as stall 5 which will be helpful. We've no out and out front runner in the field here , but Bold Suitor and Thoughtful Gift raced prominently last time and the former pretty much made all when winning over course and distance two starts ago, so they're probably the pace angle here.

Both are in good form and score well no Instant Expert, so I'll take this pair (1) Thoughtful Gift and (15) Bold Suitor along with LTO winner (5) Absolutely Buzzing.

Leg 5 @ 6.20, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

A fairly modest looking card for a Class 4 handicap with very few coming here in any semblance of form. Dark Side Thunder was the only one to make the frame last time out, beaten by less than a length at Yarmouth and he does have 7 wins and 2 further places from 16 A/W outings. Myconian was a runner-up three starts ago, Regal Envoy matching that on his penultimate run as did Mojomaker but he has a 406 day lay-off to overcome.

C&D winner Princess Shabnam has plummeted in the weights (107 to 78) after 19 straight losses, but she was a three-quarter length runner-up on her last A/W outing, so she might now be dangerously weighted and if Tan Rapido shows no ill effects from a near six month break, he could well be one to consider. He was admittedly last home of nine in a Class 2 handicap at Sandown last time out, but his other three starts saw him finish 212 and the drop back in class is sure to help.

Instant Expert throws Kodiac Thriller into the mix too...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map also highlights Regal Envoy...

(4) Regal Envoy has been running pretty well of late, he's only 2lbs higher than his last win and scores well on both Instant Expert and Pace/Draw, so he's in. C&D winner (7) Princess Shabnam is likely to be upfront with him, she's dangerously weighted here and showed signs of a recovery on her last A/W run, so she's in too, but I suspect both will play second fiddle to (9) Dark Side Thunder who'll probably tuck in behind them from stall 3 for a late burst. He's in good nick, gets weight all round, scores well on Instant Expert and both his yard & jockey have decent records at this venue.

Leg 6 @ 6.50, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

Division 2 of the above race looks a stronger affair with both American Bay and Nemov wining over 6f last time out. The former won by 2.5 lengths at Redcar to get off the mark at the ninth time of asking whilst the latter prevailed by a length at Kempton for a first win in his six starts. He has a runner-up finish and a win from two A/W runs (both over 6f at Kempton) in contrast to his form (4844) on the Flat, whilst American Bay's only previous A/W outing saw him finish second of eleven over 7f at Kempton beaten by a neck, so I expect both to go well here today.

Bottom weight Bowman is far more experienced after 48 races and whilst he doesn't win very often, he always seems to be in the mix, having finished 1228332 in his last seven, beaten by less than a length at Wolverhampton last time out. This, however, is tougher up two classes. Spring Bloom has won two of his last four, Balon D'Or won two starts ago and Invincible Speed has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six.

Jimmy Speaking has two wins and a runner-up finish from five and could also be involved here, although I firmly believe that we've two races in one here. The pair of LTO winners are racing for the win with the seven others aiming for that final spot in the frame with Instant Expert suggesting that Jimmy Speaking, Crimson Sand and Invincible Speed the more likely to do so. All three are relatively well drawn, but Crimson Sand hasn't been seen for over six months and might need the run...

...whilst Jimmy Speaking might well be a tad high in the weights. That said, he might well go for it from the off, based on the pace data we hold...

I'm definitely with (5) American Bay and (6) Nemov here, but I now have the conundrum of Jimmy Speaking who might be too high in the weights, Crimson Sand who hasn't raced for some time, Invincible Speed who almost ticks the boxes and Bowman who on the face of form, Instant Expert and pace should be a pick, but is the 40/1 market outsider with Bet365. All things considered, I'm going to err on the side of consistency/caution and take (3) Invincible Speed, but I'm going to have a small E/W bet on Bowman as 40/1 looks too tempting to let pass.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Gilet, (2) Antonin Dvorak & (11) Oasis Sunrise

Leg 2: (1) Twitch, (5) Wilde And Dandy & (8) Dumfries

Leg 3: (2) Baraq, (3) Red Hat Eagle & (5) Hosanna Power

Leg 4: (1) Thoughtful Gift,(5) Absolutely Buzzing & (15) Bold Suitor

Leg 5: (4) Regal Envoy, (7) Princess Shabnam & (9) Dark Side Thunder

Leg 6: (3) Invincible Speed, (5) American Bay & (6) Nemov

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck & have a great weekend!
Chris

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