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Monday Musings: Lies, Damned Lies, and…

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Don’t look now, but York starts on Wednesday and every year for me that means the beginning of the end of summer, writes Tony Stafford. The nights start to draw in; evening race meetings begin at 4 p.m. and if they want to stage ten-race cards as they have been doing recently, they’ll need to be over by 8 p.m. at the latest, except on all-weather.

I’m still not going racing, instead waiting for the day that, like the French, the British (and Irish) public can attend. Harry and Alan are going up to York and have got a great deal in the Marriott at the mile and a half gate. All they need now are some of the highly-regulated owners’ badges to go their way. Wednesday looks good apparently, but some of the other days are more questionable. It might be a case of watching on the hotel telly.

There’s been a fair amount of goalpost-moving lately. I’m delighted that I can get back from today to ice-rink chauffeuring. In the end Mrs S and her skating chums didn’t have to resort to chaining themselves to the Downing Street railings like latter-day suffragettes to get their pleas heard. Now she needs to see if she can still skate after six months off since her latest leg operation.

But the biggest movement, and one more than relevant to someone who has meticulously – as you all will be aware – kept the Covid-19 UK daily death figures since mid-March, immediately after the conclusion of the Cheltenham Festival, is how they are reported.

Spikes and the now seemingly-defunct “R” number have kept us all in check – bar the odd quarter of a million on Bournemouth, Brighton or Southend beaches when it got really hot. But in the middle of last week, suddenly the Government finally proved that there really are “three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies and statistics” as commonly attributed to the American writer Mark Twain, though whose true origin may predate that great wordsmith.

Back in mid-April, in the week to April 12 there were 6,425 recorded Coronavirus UK deaths, an alarming figure that mercifully began to reduce steadily. By mid-July we were in the realms of below 500 a week and still falling. During the same period, testing was increasing exponentially from the starting point of barely 10,000 tests – in other words, at that time people were really only tested when it was obvious they had the virus. But, by July, between 100,000 and 200,000 tests were available every day.

Then suddenly last week, the Ministry – amid renewed local lock-downs where clusters of positive tests were revealed – concluded it would no longer count as Coronavirus deaths, anyone tested as having the virus but who died more than 28 days afterwards.

So from July 31, when the brave new world came in, and when positive tests were going back up again to 1,000 plus each day the daily deaths in the UK were not. Starting on the last day of July the number of deaths has been 5, 1, 18, 14, 18, 12, 3, 5, 17, 14, 20, 18, 11, 3 and 5. Those numbers are probably smaller than many other routine causes of deaths in a population of 60 million. In all honesty, if that is the basis by which it’s judged, shouldn’t we be getting back to normal?

If they don’t yet have a vaccine ready, shame on them. There have been plenty of people willing to act as paid guinea-pigs, especially if their jobs have disappeared. You might even say if the figures can be presented thus, what’s all the fuss been about?

To the racing. It’s expected to be fast ground at York – amazing news for anyone who has been waiting for the action to start at the Test match at Southampton over the past few days, and they are the conditions I prefer to see on the Knavesmire. Frankie Dettori won’t be there but as the great man approaches his 50th birthday in December, he is showing a rare facility for making correct choices.

While the racing goes on at York, he’ll be staying in Deauville having had the news on Friday that the newly-re-imposed 14-day self-isolation period for people returning from France and some other countries has been modified for elite sportsmen. They, it seems, need only face a seven- or eight-day spell under specific conditions in self-isolation at home before resuming full activity.

Frankie was anxious not to miss either Mishriff, the French Derby winner, impressive again at Deauville last Saturday, or the unbeaten St James’s Palace hero Palace Pier in yesterday’s Prix Jacques Le Marois. That fast-improving colt came through to beat Alpine Star with the older horses led home by Circus Maximus, and best of the home team, Persian King, well beaten off. He is now being lined up for the QE II Stakes at Ascot in the autumn.

Alpine Star had been narrowly pipped in the French Oaks by the Donnacha O’Brien-trained Fancy Blue who went on to take the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood with authority. Jessica Harrington trains Alpine Star, and the two Irish fillies – along with the Aidan O’Brien-trained Peaceful – comprise a formidable trio of mile/ten-furlong star sophomores.

None of them will be at York, but the best of the lot among the Classic generation of females will be.

Potential opposition to Love in Thursday’s Yorkshire Oaks again seems to fall principally on Frankly Darling, who disappointingly failed to provide much of a test at Epsom for the Coolmore filly as she added the Oaks to her 1,000 Guineas honours in spectacular style. The four-year-old Manuela De Vega is smart but conceding lumps of weight? Hardly! Dettori’s absence from York – he’s staying en France an extra week – tough! – to wait for a Wesley Ward runner in next weekend’s Prix Morny.

That will still give him time for the requisite eight and a few more days before teaming up with Enable in Kempton’s September Stakes, a cleverly-thought-out target from John Gosden which obviates the need to tackle Love before the Arc. Enable won the September Stakes two years ago as a prelude to her second win in Paris in October. How they would cherish a third as a six-year-old after the shock of being caught close home by Waldgeist last year.

The York meeting opens with another Gosden star, Lord North, the major loss this week for Dettori judged on the four-year-old’s upward-mobility this summer. Winner of six of his nine career races with two seconds and a luckless eased last of eight in the other, Lord North has progressed from a laughably-easy Cambridgeshire winner to outclassing his Prince Of Wales’s Stakes opponents at Royal Ascot. James Doyle is the beneficiary, as he was at Ascot when Dettori rode Mehdaayih. Who’s to say Lord North cannot progress enough to beat Ghaiyyath, as well as the 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko and possibly Magical in the Juddmonte International?

We won’t have Saturday’s Ebor Handicap runners until around 1 p.m. today and I can’t wait to see which potentially top-class horse Messrs Gosden, Haggas or Varian will have lined up to win it. Even though the total prize pool has been slashed from £600,000 to a relatively frugal £250,000 I’m sure there will be enough horses to fill the 22 available stalls. It would be great if a hard-knocking horse from the North could see off the aristocrats from Newmarket.

Another race that I’m looking forward to is Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes, not least because Wesley Ward is bringing a lightly-raced but clearly talented juvenile to tackle Battaash, Art Power and A’Ali. His Golden Pal, runner-up after making the running to The Lir Jet in the Norfolk Stakes will be going there as a maiden with form figures of 22, having earlier been beaten when favourite for a Gulfstream Park maiden in the spring.

He will be echoing to a large degree the pre-Nunthorpe record 13 years ago of the John Best-trained juvenile Kingsgate Native, a 66-1 debut runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes and then second again in the Molecomb at Goodwood.

Backed down to 12-1 (among many, by me!), Kingsgate Native easily beat Desert Lord with future stallions Dandy Man and Red Clubs the next two home. I note the weights will be unchanged from then, so Battaash carries 9st11lb; three-year-olds Art Power and A’Ali 2lb less and Golden Pal only 8st1lb. He will have Andrea Atzeni, who rode him at Ascot, back on board.

I know the other three are highly-talented, and it would be another feather in the Charlie Hills cap if Battaash could win a second Nunthorpe, but I’d much prefer Wesley’s undying love for British racing to get a reward after a couple of less than wonderful years. He certainly seems to have all his ducks in line this time.

So in conclusion, I say enjoy York, if you are, like Harry and Alan, fully documented-up. If not, the wonderful coverage – free and flourishing on ITV though I still doggedly stick to Racing TV – deserves watching for all four days. Please then, start taking off the restraints, Mr Boris. Five months using only two tanks of fuel has been sacrifice enough.

SotD Update, 10th to 15th August 2020

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A brutally honest assessment of the week was that it was dreadful.

The only positive I can find about a sequence of results reading 875443 is that they did at least improve as the week went on, but that's about it.

To mix a few sporting metaphors, it's now half-time for August and we're behind the 8-ball. Strike rate is below par, we're almost 5pts down and we need to hope it's a game of two halves.

All is not lost, however, we've plenty of opportunities ahead of us, starting tomorrow.

Chris

Selections & Results : 10/08/20 to 15/08/20

10/08 : Power of States @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 9/2
11/08 : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1
12/08 : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1
13/08 : Tell William @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4
14/08 : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2
15/08 : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1

10/08/20 to 15/08/20 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

August 2020 :
2 winners from 13 = 15.38% SR
P/L: -4.67pts
ROI = -35.92%

2020 to date :
23 winners from 124 = 18.54% SR
P/L: +6.03pts
ROI = +4.86%

Overall:
679 winners from 2589 = 26.22% S.R
P/L: +537.90pts
ROI: +20.77%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Trainer Stats Point To Tempus In Mile Handicap

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The mile handicap at Newbury staged at 2.25pm on Saturday looks a relatively solvable puzzle with 10 runners set to go to post and plenty of reliable form on offer.

There are some top trainers represented here so let’s see how they have performed in Newbury handicaps over the past 5 years:

Trainer record in Newbury handicaps for trainers represented in this race

As you can see, William Haggas and Roger Charlton not only stand out from a win percentage perspective (30.91% and 26.67% respectively) but they are also the top trainers with representatives in this race when it comes to P&L (48.63 and 22.38 respectively). They are the only two of these trainers to have been profitable to follow blindly in handicaps.

Looking at class 2 handicaps specifically now:

Trainer record at Newbury in class 2 handicaps

Roger Charlton now jumps ahead of William Haggas with a 38.46% strike rate which is almost 3 times as strong as that of Haggas. Charlton is the only one of these trainers producing a profit in class 2 handicaps at Newbury and a very healthy profit at that (31 win profit).

The data is a bit more limited here but it certainly seems Roger Charlton is sending his better handicappers to Newbury whereas Haggas is mopping up some of the lower grade handicaps.

Let’s take a look at the runners from the Haggas and Charlton yards in this race. William Haggas runs Jahbath whilst Roger Charlton saddles Tempus.

Jahbath is 4 from 5 on the all weather and 0 from 2 on turf but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His turf runs have bookended his career to date with his debut effort coming at Salisbury in a race where he only narrowly lost out to Clara Peeters who would go on to rate in the high 80s. He was conceding experience and 6lbs on that day so it was clearly a strong effort.

His most recent turf run came after a 476 day break and although beaten more than 5 lengths, he was a creditable enough 4th on soft ground at Haydock over this one mile trip. How much he’ll improve with that run under his belt on slightly better ground is difficult to gauge.

Tempus hasn’t run for 302 days which is an unknown so it’s worth comparing Roger Charlton’s record with fresh horses in handicaps with his overall handicap record.

Roger Charlton's record in handicaps since 2009 with runners returning from a 60+ day break

Roger Charlton's record in handicaps since 2009 with all runners

 

Since 2009 Roger Charlton has had 294 handicap runners returning from a 60+ day break and they have produced a 16.67% win rate and a 50.18 win P&L. Comparing that to all his handicap runners in this time, the strike rate is slightly improved at 17.95% but the P&L is –48.43. The market is clearly underestimating Roger Charlton horses after a break. It’s worth noting of course that a 302 day break is pretty extreme and the horse has obviously had some issues keeping him off the track.

Tempus has only had one run in handicap company and that was a slightly disappointing 4th, beaten 1.5 lengths at Wolverhampton over their extended mile. He had previously beaten Lyndon B, subsequently rated 97, giving that horse 6lbs. Given Tempus only has a mark of 91 it’s probably a fair assumption that the most recent run wasn’t his best form and whatever issue caused him to miss 10 months of racing probably affected him during that race.

Roger Charlton’s record in Newbury handicaps, and Newbury class 2 handicaps in particular, are quite enlightening. The fact that the market seems to be offering value on his runners after a break adds confidence to the feeling that Tempus might be underestimated here. His most recent turf effort, in testing conditions, suggests he is well handicapped and he could take all the beating in this race on Saturday afternoon, which is live on ITV Racing.

Monday Musings: Charlie Gives Maurice the Blues

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Until York next week, there isn’t very much of great moment happening on the racecourses of the United Kingdom, but Sunday in France and Ireland was highly interesting and informative, writes Tony Stafford.

Every year the Prix Maurice De Gheest offers a fascinating mid-season barometer of the relative merits of the classic and older generations. At the same time its 1300-metre (6.5 furlong) straight trip brings together pure sprinters and horses that stay further. Often it’s the latter grouping that comes out on top and so it proved yesterday when the four-year-old Space Blues got the better of a field chock-full of Group 1 performers.

Space Blues is trained by Charlie Appleby who sent the four-year-old over 12 months earlier to finish a staying-on third behind the Martyn Meade-trained Advertise.

Appleby showed great enterprise in bringing him back for this repeat attempt, barely a week after a smart win at Goodwood. The field was headed, form- and betting-wise, by the Andre Fabre-trained but also Godolphin-owned Earthlight, unbeaten in six starts and twice a Group 1 winner in a five-race unblemished 2019 juvenile campaign.

Earthlight had every chance throughout and was moved into contention by Mickael Barzalona in the middle of the track, while Space Blues seemed to be struggling after making a sluggish start close to the stands rails.

But then William Buick could be seen to be manoeuvring him into a challenging position and once he secured a gap inside the last furlong, he breezed through and comfortably held Hello Youmzain and Lope Y Fernandez with the favourite only fourth.

Space Blues began life by winning a late-season Nottingham juvenile maiden over a mile and started out last year over 10 furlongs at Newbury, finishing fourth. Dropped in trip he won two seven-furlong races, a York handicap and Epsom Listed before that initial trip to Deauville.

This year – following a single run in Dubai in the winter - he has moved quickly though the grades, collecting a Haydock Listed; a Longchamp Group 3, and then up one more level for the Lennox Stakes (Group 2) at Goodwood where his turn of foot quickly settled that argument.

His ability to quicken characterised yesterday’s display and I have no doubt that for the rest of the season he will be hard to beat at the highest level at anywhere between six and eight furlongs. Considering his pedigree, it was understandable that initially middle-distance racing was at the forefront of Charlie Appleby’s plans.

The son of Dubawi was bred to Miss Lucifer, a triple winner for Barry Hills, and a daughter of Noverre. Noverre was trained for his first seven races by David Loder, all as a two-year-old when Loder had just re-located to train at the recently de-commissioned Evry racecourse near Paris. Noverre had already won twice before retaining his unbeaten record when coming over to Newmarket for the July Stakes.

In all, his form figures with Loder in Europe were 111212, but the decision to send him to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at the end of that year proved unsuccessful, Noverre finishing nowhere: 11th of 14. Sent to be trained at three by Saeed Bin Suroor, he was to win only once more from 14 starts, but that one was pretty good, the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood!

Space Blues enlivened events at Deauville barely half an hour before another exceptional performance, this time by the Jessica Harrington-trained filly Lucky Vega in the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh.

This six-furlong race attracted most of the best of the Irish juveniles to have raced so far as well as The Lir Jet, Michael Bell’s Royal Ascot winner. Steel Bull, so impressive when winning the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood was also in the very strong line-up.

Lucky Vega had been caught late on in a recent run at The Curragh by the big outsider Laws Of Indices, but here she had that rival well in arrears as she strode to a near four-length margin in a style that suggests the Matron Stakes must be on her agenda, as well as all the top fillies’ races elsewhere in Europe.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 3rd to 8th August 2020

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A decent enough week last week with two winners and two placers giving us a 2.33pts profit and had Garsman managed to hang on for the win on Friday, I'd have been happily writing about making 8.83pts, but it wasn't to be and once again we got a timely reminder of how fine the margins can be in this fine sport.

Aside from picking winners, which is always nice, SotD did what SotD always sets out to do and that's to find a selection that will give you a run for your money at a better price than it will eventually run at and with one horse sent off at the odds I quoted with the other five being well backed, we did at least tick that box this week.

In fact, our average quoted price was just shy of 9/2 about runners sent off at an average of just under 3/1 and if you can back horses at 150%+ of SP on a regular basis, you will make profit in the long run which, of course, is the Geegeez plan 😉

Chris

Selections & Results : 03/08/20 to 08/08/20

03/08 : Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG WON at 15/8
04/08 : Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
05/08 : Alezan @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2
06/08 : See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG WON at 13/8
07/08 : Garsman @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
08/08 : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3

03/08/20 to 08/08/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +2.33pts

August 2020 :
2 winners from 7 = 28.57% SR
P/L: +1.33pts
ROI = +19.00%

2020 to date :
23 winners from 118 = 19.49% SR
P/L: +12.03pts
ROI = +10.19%

Overall:
679 winners from 2583 = 26.29% S.R
P/L: +543.90pts
ROI: +21.05%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Weekend Racing Preview: Scorching Pace Likely In 7f Handicap

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It might not be a vintage day of racing on Saturday but there are plenty of competitive handicaps to get stuck into. One of the more interesting races of the day, which unfortunately won’t be on terrestrial television, is the 7f handicap at Haydock being run at 3.50pm.

Haydock is well known for receiving plenty of rainfall so there is fairly limited data available for handicaps of this field size run on the forecast good to firm ground. When there is limited data the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) is particularly useful. There isn’t a whole lot in it but it seems preferable to be drawn low or high rather than in the middle over 7f on fast ground at Haydock. Just 15.63% of placed runners have come from the middle third of the draw.

As far as pace advantage over this course and distance is concerned, on fast ground we are again dealing with slightly limited data but it seems anywhere but prominent is ideal for win purposes. Prominent racers have yielded zero winners from 24 runs in qualifying races. The best place to be positioned could be mid division with a level stakes profit of £3.50 for those runners. It’s worth bearing in mind though that win ratios can be misleading with limited data and when looking at the place data for the same qualifying races it’s actually very even and slightly favours those ridden prominently.

Haydock 7f Good to Firm Pace Stats

One of the best features of Geegeez Gold is the ability to compare both pace and draw simultaneously. The draw pace heat map (using PRB data) for races of these conditions again backs up the assumption that middle draws are less favourable and that a high draw might be more favourable than low unless you are likely to be held up in the rear, in which case low is better than high.

Haydock draw heat map

With no strong data regarding pace advantage it’s best to concentrate on how each individual race is likely to be run and that’s what makes this race more interesting than many on Saturday.

Haydock 7f pace map

With three possible front runners here we are likely to see contested speed and that should swing things in favour of those held up in mid division or the rear. That leaves the entirety of the remaining field with no recognised prominent racers. As previously discussed those drawn in the middle could be seen at a disadvantage which would be bad news for Irreverent, Young Fire, Dutch Decoy and Arbalet, who are drawn 5,6,7 and 8 respectively.

Indian Creak form

Indian Creak's run at Sandown has produced a 0% subsequent win ratio and just a 25% place ratio.

Of those drawn lower, War Glory is drawn lowest of all but has only won once in 30 attempts on turf and probably needs a stiffer test. Indian Creak is drawn in stall 2 but has been well enough beaten in both starts this season and whilst his 7th in a 7f handicap last month at Sandown might look okay form on first inspection, the Geegeez future form display tells us that 11 runners have come out of that race and all been beaten since. Cold Stare completes the low drawn runner list who should be ridden with patience but all his form is on soft ground.

So what about those drawn higher? The remaining runners are Triggered (drawn 9) and Northernpowerhouse (drawn 10). Triggered is likely to be held up in the rear and based on the data we have he would probably have been better off with a low draw assuming the same tactics are used again. He hasn’t been seen to best effect this season and is stepping up to 7f for the first time. He’ll need to improve for the trip to figure but on the way he runs that’s very possible.

Northernpowerhouse seems to have plenty in his favour with a high draw and a fast pace forecast. He is generally held up in mid division rather than right at the rear of the field so has an ideal draw on that basis. He seemed to improve over the winter on the all weather and was clearly not expected to transfer that improvement to turf when sent off a relatively unconsidered 22/1, despite being a last time out winner, at Redcar in June. He proved those odds wrong though with a narrow win. That wasn’t the strongest of contests in hindsight but many of his races have worked out well, particularly his most recent all weather win where he beat five runners who would win on one of their next two starts.

Last time out Northernpowerhouse was beaten 8.5 lengths but he was badly squeezed up on that occasion and whilst he wasn’t going well enough to win that day, he may well have reached the placings. The faster ground here may also be in his favour.

Fair Warning: Imminent Price Rise

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It's almost two years since Geegeez Gold last raised its monthly price. And it is three and a half years since we increased the cost of an annual subscription.

During that time, we have continually invested in developing our offering to you. Indeed, since that last annual sub rise in February 2017, we've added the following [sorry, it's a long list]

**

9th May 2017 – Addition of Draw Tool and Query Tool

16th June 2017 – Addition of ‘Clear’ button to reports; addition of result filters to Query Tool; addition of ‘Show/Hide Inline’ button to reports; addition of ‘All’ and ‘All Hcap’ snippets to inline trainer form

5th July 2017 – Addition of silks to fast results page; fix for HC1 indicators/report where trainer has multiple HC1 runners; Phase 2 of Query Tool (Major Race Class, Equipment, Card/Actual Weight, Card/Actual Draw, Official Rating, Speed Rating); ability to hide/show infrequently used variables on Query Tool. Query Tool output now clickable to main form database. Variable descriptions added to User Guide.

21st August 2017 – Fixed issue with ‘My Tracked Engagements’ links on My Geegeez page; added negative trainer/jockey form indicators.

11th September 2017 – Added Pace Tab ‘Graphic View’

20th September 2017 – Added equipment count to racecards

11th December 2017 – Major release: Report Angles. Also minor amend to Tracker maximums

14th February 2018 – New Report: A to Z

22nd February 2018 – Added Hcap/All race filter to PACE tab

29th March 2018 – Added Hcap/All race filter to DRAW tab

25th April 2018 – Added more configuration options to Instant Expert

23rd May 2018 – Add Proximity Form explanation

12th June 2018 – Draw chart lines; Tracker notes displayed on hover over; minor bug fixes

25th July 2018 – Major release: New Report system, with historical data and csv export; racecard menu filters and course information links; QT Angles; hide odds option

5th October 2018 - Added Class Move report and indicators; added show/hide racecard elements to My Geegeez; updated Query Tool user guide content

13th November 2018 – Added TJ Combo 1 year to jockey inline form; major overhaul of Full Form; added odds to Report Angles report; bug fixes to search, future entries, report inline date history sort

22nd January 2019 – Added Pace Analyser; added Trainer/Jockey/Sire to Instant Expert; added RESET button, latest odds and official rating to Full Form

22nd March 2019 – Added Bet Tracker; added Racing Post and Topspeed ratings

27th March 2019 – Minor amends to Bet Tracker

24th April 2019 – Major upgrade: Added User Notes & Ratings; added Instant Expert inline; added Draw IV3; added Pace percentage

22nd May 2019 – Added weight for age and jockey allowance options on ratings; added ability to rate/price up a race from the card; added R1/R2 ratings to inline form; added option to consider last 4, 3 or 2 runs for pace maps; removed tip league from card

12th August 2019 – Added sortation to Full Form past performance columns

23rd September 2019 – Added note about QT Angles including odds or pace score parameters

3rd January 2020 – Major release: Added sectional timing content to Full Results, Full Form and Cards inline

12th February 2020 – Added ‘Upgrade’ figure column to form; revised colour on Draw tab/Draw Analyser; Added Heat Map underlay on Pace tab

29th April 2020 – Cosmetic enhancements across the racecards; addition of future form; addition of date filter to Draw and Pace Analysers

20th May 2020 – Addition of percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) and derivations to Draw Analyser and Draw tab on racecard; cosmetic upgrade to Tracker

31st July 2020 – Cosmetic change to racecard icon design; addition of Profiler tab to racecards

**

Phew! It's a lot, isn't it?

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Monday Musings: Trouble’d Times

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Last week I wrote in this space that I would not be trying to join the 5,000 racing optimists who were all set to travel to Goodwood for the test meeting set to confirm that the country is indeed coming out of the worst effects of the now almost five-month agony of the Coronavirus pandemic, writes Tony Stafford.

Barely 24 hours before this new departure for so many, the word came of the frustration for the 5,000, the feeding of which was not the matter of a Biblical “five loaves and two fishes” miracle. It was a major logistical exercise involving butchers, bakers and if not candlestick makers, certainly outside caterers who had worked night and day on menus, the provision of champagne, lobsters and smoked salmon as well as the beer, pies and burger vans that keep all us hungry racegoers happy.

My wife’s interest in racing is about as deep as that of Josephina, the Yorkshire terrier’s, but Boris’ statement did strike a nerve and possibly the beginning of a protest movement with the prospect of  ice skaters standing outside 10 Downing Street or as near as security will allow them, wearing their skates. She (not Josephina), in what was to be her first try-out of her repaired broken leg, had lessons booked for today, tomorrow and later in the week. But once again, with the rinks having gone to the expense of getting the ice prepared for action after all that time, they got the same two-week delay as beauty salons, bowling alleys and indoor theatres.

Coaches have lost their income but now, happy to be back had set up the initial appointments, which have now spun on for two more weeks. Champion skaters, those young kids who practice at crack of dawn before school every morning and then again straight after to try to do well enough to represent their country in international competition, often when they are among only a handful of people in the arena, have another fortnight at least to vegetate and try to keep the enthusiasm going. As she says, public sessions should be treated as a separate issue.

The ramifications, as with what happened to all that food prepared for Goodwood, are far-reaching. I hope the bulk of those choice provisions was able to be diverted to people who would have been grateful for it, but you have to wonder whether some was just chucked into a nearby bin with losses covered by insurance.

The cause of the delay was a “spike”, or an increase in parts of England in the mystical “R” figure. As I’ve been boring readers for months, I’ve kept a daily record of the numbers of new cases and deaths and every week since the peak on April 12, the number of deaths had been decreasing. Percentage-wise from the week of April 12th (incidentally in 2020 it would have been my dad’s 100th birthday, and how he would have celebrated Saturday’s Cup Final result!) it has gone down initially by 3%, then 11%, 14.6%, 28.8%, 18.4%, 22.4%, 21.4%, 5%, 28%, 19.2%, 11.5%, 16.2%, 10%, 20% and in the week to July 25th, another 7%.

From 6425 in the week to April 12th, deaths had dropped by 93%. Even though many more people had been tested as the weeks went on, new infections have continued to fall. The last week did show some modest increases on its immediate predecessors in new infections, but fatalities were almost static in the week of “new spikes” and an increased R number. Last week it was 452 and contrary to what we are being subliminally persuaded to believe, this week to yesterday it was still down, albeit by only three.

If the government thinks that bowling alleys, ice rinks and theatres are going to cause the much-feared second wave, then what about pubs where the boyos could watch the Cup Final in close contact with each other, or indeed Goodwood and Galway and celebrate backing a winner? Or the beaches, where in the near 90-degree heat of Friday and Saturday, the crowds were much in evidence again? Social distancing, where?

I’m just waiting, having stayed indoors to all intents and purposes since Cheltenham, to resume normal life, as no doubt we all are. As predicted, I enjoyed Goodwood and Galway, mostly for the amazing performance of Stradivarius, when I confidently expected the Irish Derby winner Santiago to take advantage of the 15lb weight-for-age allowance. The way Frankie Dettori extricated him from a typical Goodwood pocket was a measure of his enduring greatness as a jockey. I expect a big run from him in the Arc. Can he beat Enable and Love? Maybe!

Battaash emulated Strad’s four-timer in the Goodwood Cup with one of his own in the King George Qatar Stakes, but his task was far less onerous. Charlie Hills, a trainer who seems to get very little recognition for his skills - maybe it’s his mild, polite manner or just that he is his father’s son - has done wonders to concentrate all of Battaash’s once-wayward tendencies into track record-breaking brilliance.

**

In the 20 years since Betfair was launched onto an innocent market place many things have changed, especially in the horse racing world. Its arrival coincided with the last two of my 30 years at the Daily Telegraph and I remember writing in that publication that I believed anyone on the new exchange sites who laid horses should be required to be licenced as bookmakers– and pay for the privilege.

Nothing has changed that opinion, but what is different today is the degree to which Betfair Exchange odds lead running “industry” (as they are almost exclusively now) prices and influence SPs.

Another thing that hasn’t changed is that bookmakers do not give money away willingly. So when as happened in the 8.30 race at Thirsk on Wednesday, a horse that the owner had been backing, not excessively, but significantly all afternoon and at 8 p.m. or thereabouts was firm at around 10-1, could, by 8.20, just before the first show in the shops, be available briefly at 60-1 on Betfair, you knew something was probably “funny”.

The horse in question was Trouble Shooter, a five-time winner for owner Simon Lockyer in 2019 under trainer Shaun Keightley but now with Richard Guest. This was to be his debut for the Yorkshire-based trainer and in the build-up to this first run for seven months, expectations had been high. I’ve known Lockyer for just over a year and in the winter we met one of my friends who had been interested in buying into one of the owner’s horses. That didn’t happen but he obviously keeps a close eye on matters racing and betting and called at around 6.30 to say he’d seen that Trouble Shooter “has gone from 12’s to 7’s so presumably it’s fancied.”

I called Simon, and learned that yes they were more than hopeful, at the same time revealing that an associate connected to one of his horses had just called to ask him about Trouble Shooter’s chances.

“He said,” Lockyer began, “that he doesn’t like ringing to ask about another owner’s horses but would like to know if he thought it had a chance. He said he’d had a multiple bet, finding some long-priced winners and that if Trouble Shooter won, it would come to £300,000.”

Upon ending the call, I related that information to my friend and we haven’t discussed it since. Hopefully he didn’t rush to take the reduced price as he would have been no more shocked than me and of course Lockyer when the first show at the track was 25-1. That did prompt some modest mid-market support down to 12-1 but by the off he was out to 20-1 having touched 28’s according to the betting report. After at one time getting as close as fifth, around three lengths behind the leader, he eventually dropped away to finish eighth of the ten runners.

As I said earlier, bookmakers do not give money away. The trainer assured the owner that Trouble Shooter would run well, only reducing his assessment from ten out of ten to nine in the last hours before the race, but I’ve found over 50-odd years’ experience of talking to trainers that even the best of them have slightly diluted optimism as race-time approaches.

It is well known that Betfair have an open line to the BHA, one which has brought about suspensions of a number of jockeys and owners, who contrary to the rules had been found to have laid their horses on the Betfair Exchange. I trust - and I know Nick Rust sees these words every Monday - that Wednesday’s 8.30 race at Thirsk will feature in their deliberations. Not least identifying which bookmaker stood to lose £300k.

The consequences of what happened are still unravelling where Simon Lockyer is concerned, but I repeat someone must have known rather than suspected that Trouble Shooter would not win, and I was aware beforehand that one punter stood to win £300,000 if he did win, or to be Devil’s Advocate, claimed that he would. I think the lay bets should be investigated down to the minutest of transactions. I know at least one other person that could provide evidence of his actions (exclusively backing not laying!) that morning and afternoon.

How can a 7-1 shot (I think they took 10’s at 8 p.m.) open at 25-1? The Editor of this web site was interested as the former Chair of the Horseracing Bettors Forum. Since I originally wrote these words it was he that informed me that Trouble Shooter had never won previously off a layoff of more than 30 days; and that he had been ahead of the eventual winner, the favourite King’s Charisma, three furlongs out; and that he was running off a seven pounds career high mark.

Fair points, I agree, but I still contend that somebody KNEW Trouble Shooter would not be winning. It would be interesting to know who was so certain that he was prepared to offer 60-1 against it happening.

  • TS

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

SotD Update, 27th July to 1st August 2020

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It's all getting a bit Groundhog Day, I'm afraid as for a fourth week in a row, I can only muster one winner. Thankfully, we got paid out at 5/1, meaning we wiped our faces over week, but the lack of a profit meant an overall loss of 2.3pts for the month.

I did say last week that we'd need two winners and so it proved. If I'm honest, I'm not too disheartened as a small loss in what proved to be a difficult month, as post-lockdown, the numbers still look healthy.

Please note I left for Greece last Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Chris

Selections & Results : 27/07/20 to 01/08/20

27/07 : Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1
28/07 : Mr Wagyu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1
29/07 : Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1
30/07 : Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 11/2
31/07 : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4
01/08 : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4

27/07/20 to 01/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

July 2020 :
4 winners from 24 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.30pts
ROI = -9.58%

August 2020 :
0 winners from 1 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

2020 to date :
21 winners from 112 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +9.70pts
ROI = +8.66%

Overall:
677 winners from 2577 = 26.27% S.R
P/L: +541.57pts
ROI: +21.02%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

**NEW** Profiler Tab: Video Explainer

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We've added a new tab to the racecards called PROFILER and, in this video, I explain what it is, what it does and how it works. It's an exciting new development that looks sure to throw up some great insights, especially in terms of trainer and sire angles.

Watch the video and then have a play with Profiler!

Matt

Stewards’ Cup 2020 Preview: Recent Evidence Suggests Low Means Go

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The Stewards’ Cup is one of those races that many punters will file under ‘impossible’ each year but as is often the case, Geegeez Gold can be used to narrow down the field significantly and highlight the best angles.

Low or High Draws In This Cavalry Charge?

As usual, pace and draw are going to be key here. Statistically speaking a low draw has been a huge advantage in 16+ runner 6f handicaps at Goodwood run on good to firm ground.

Goodwood Stewards' Cup Draw

Nine of the last thirteen qualifying races have been won by horses running from the lowest third of the draw whilst the middle and high draws have accounted for just two winners each. These win figures are backed up by place and PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) figures, admittedly less comprehensively, suggesting that we really want to concentrate on low drawn runners here.

Digging deeper into the exact stalls successful runners have emerged from; stall 1 has been most successful with three winners whilst stalls 1-6 have provided nine of the thirteen winners from qualifying contests, despite stall 2 contributing none of those wins.

Detailed Goodwood Draw Stats

Relying on win figures only can sometimes be misleading, especially with small samples, so let’s look at the places. Again, the low stalls have dominated with thirty-three of the fifty-two placings going to horses drawn stall 12 or lower and twenty-three of those coming from the lowest seven stalls. Stall 1 has not only been most successful in terms of wins (three), it’s also seen the joint most placings alongside stall 3 (six).

So how well found are these low drawn winners and placers in the market? Nine stalls have produced an each way profit in these qualifying races and five of those were in the lowest seven stalls. Three of the four most profitable stalls were 7, 1 and 3, with stall 7 most profitable of all with an each way LSP of 20.75 and it’s interesting that all of that profit came from the place returns.

So to summarise, it’s not impossible to win from any draw (even stall 23 has a win) but it seems a big advantage for win and place purposes to be in the lowest seven stalls.

Extreme Rides Keep You Out Of Trouble

So what about pace?

Goodwood 6f Pace Stats

Backing front runners in qualifying races has been a profitable angle with an LSP of 3.00. The least profitable angle has been backing horses that race in mid division, they have produced an LSP of -72.00. This is likely to be down to those runners often being boxed in when the race develops with plenty of ground still to make up. Whereas those held up right at the back have more to do but get more options in choosing their path to progress. The place and draw heat map backs this up with most places coming from low drawn horses who either lead or are held up in the rear.

Stewards' Cup Pace Map

There is possible contested speed in this race.

Stewards' Cup 2020 Pace Map

The low drawn horses are likely to be led by Meraas, one of just two 3yos in the race . The classic generation have accounted for three of the last five winners of this race from just eleven runners and those winners all came from the lowest four stalls.

Aljady could take the higher drawn horses along. Meraas is drawn in stall 4 and his only defeat in four starts this season came on soft ground, which he certainly won’t encounter here. It’s worth noting that Call Me Ginger, who was 2nd to Meraas last time out, runs in the consolation race earlier in the card and a good run for him would be a strong pointer towards Meraas.

There are three runners drawn 7 or lower who are likely to be held up and they are Kimifive (1), Gulliver (3) and Venturous (7). Kimifive was 10th in this race last year off the same mark when drawn high, Gulliver was 6th last year from a low draw when rated 7lbs lower. Both will be ridden by talented claimers (Cieran Fallon and Angus Villiers respectively). Venturous ran in the consolation race last year and finished 2nd off a 4lb lower mark. His last two wins have come over 5f and he didn’t seem to quite see it out a year ago so could be vulnerable again for win purposes at least.

Hot Form Worth Following

Of the trio Kimifive appeals off the same mark as last year. His only run over this trip since last year’s race has worked out well when 2nd to Barbill.

Geegeez Future Form

The Geegeez Future Form indicator shows the 3rd and 4th have both won on their next starts whilst even the well beaten 5th, Sir Maximillian, ran very well in a tough York handicap up in trip. It’s worth noting that Barbill also runs in this race but he’s drawn in stall 21 which may compromise his chance.

Glorious Goodwood 2020: Day 4 Preview, Tips

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To Friday, the fourth day of five at the Qatar Goodwood Festival - Glorious Goodwood to you and me. Goodwood Friday is one of those days in the calendar marked off on January 1st, along with Cheltenham week, Royal Ascot, and the Breeders' Cup, when I am planning to be at the track for the very best of what the sport has to offer.

But not this year, alas. This year, I - like everyone else - will be confined to the sofa for my Glorious viewing. No bad thing in the context of what's going on around the globe but, for all that it is a first world problem, they are days like these when I feel those invisible bars constraining my liberty. On...

1.10 TDN Australia Handicap (1m3f, Class 3 0-90, 3yo)

We commence with another of those inscrutable, to me at least, three-year-old handicaps. I'm trying to look to the form of races which are working out well, but this year's fractured programme means there are less of those. The ratings boys will have a better handle than me on this one so I'll largely leave it to them - Peter May's numbers, for example, scream Al Qaqaa, the eight length last day victor. A nine pound rise is unlikely to stop him if he is in the same mood here.

I was a fan of Celestran after his Yarmouth win but, for all that he's run well in defeat since, that race hasn't worked out as well as I expected it might. He's not one to give up on yet, however.

Possibly the most interesting, Al Qaqaa aside, is Summit Reach, trained by the wily and in-form 'Raif' Beckett. He made all to hack up in a mile event at Chelmsford which has worked out very well and, while he's failed to go gate to wire over this sort of distance twice since, he ought to have a squeak of stacking them up on this pace-favouring piste. Stall ten won't be an issue for him.

In truth, this is not a betting race for me.

1.45 Oak Tree Stakes (7f, Group 3, 3yo+ fillies & mares)

Low draws have dominated in the Oak Tree Stakes historically. Since 1997, the winner has been drawn 2,2,2,1,5,1,6,6,1,1,1,10,9,2,2,9,10,10,5,1,6,3,10

Put another way, the inside three stalls - after removing non-runners - have won 12 from 69 runners; the outside three stalls have won one from 69 runners. The heat map, which shows all similar races run over this course and distance since 2009, accentuates the point still further:

Invitational has to be of interest. She'd won two at seven furlongs - in slightly lower grade, granted - prior to patently failing to stay a mile on the stiff Ascot track behind Nazeef last time. Back to seven, with a favourable draw and front rank run style, 14/1 is too big.

One Master is in the one box and is a genuine Group 1 filly dropping into Group 3 company. She has a big class edge on Invitational but will need luck in running on this notoriously cambered course. If she gets a clear run she'll probably win.

A Group 3 winner over seven is Breathtaking Look whose draw in nine is acceptable and will be mitigated by a pace-tracking run style. She ran a bold race over six at Newmarket on her 2020 bow (second to July Stakes hero, Oxted) and was only just touched off in a York G3 last time, again over a furlong shorter. Seven is well within her compass as that Sceptre Stakes score last September attests so she ought to go well.

Charlie Appleby runs Althiqa, a Listed race winner in France last time and Godolphin have a second dart in the more exposed Final Song. Fourth in the 1000 Guineas, that one may not have appreciated the soft ground the last twice; even if that's right, however, she has stall 13 - unlucky for most at this range - to overcome.

Anna Nerium and the French filly Wasmya both have good draws if they're lucky in the run.

With a clear passage, One Master will be very hard to beat; but her run style does offer wagering hope that the race sets up for one kept out of trouble. I'll risk Invitational, in spite of her having to concede weight to the three-year-olds and ostensibly being as much as a stone 'wrong' with some of her peers. She'll be near the front, sees out seven well, and looked progressive prior to failing to stay last time.

2.15 Thoroughbred Stakes (1m, Group 3, 3yo)

Just the five go to post for this Group 3, the four-and-a-half length Britannia Stakes winner, Khaloosy, being a shade of odds-on as I write. That was on soft, this will be good to firm; that was 22 runners and truly run, this will be five runners and potentially tactical; that was a handicap, this is a conditions race. He very well might still win.

Against him are a couple of uber-unexposed colts in My Oberon and Tilsit. The former won a York novice last time by six lengths, showing a ready turn of foot. That attribute could be valuable in a contest with no obvious pace angle and, with just two runs to his name thus far, he can progress again.

Tilsit has a similar profile: the second of his two runs to date was a 19 (nineteen!) length romp on the straight track at Newcastle. It's virtually impossible to quantify that in the context of this race except to say he's clearly a capable individual.

The other pair look a lot more exposed.

This is a very different test for Khaloosy and, as such, taking odds-on doesn't appeal. My Oberon looks the more likely of the other two last day wide margin scorers, and he's a sporting bet at bigger than 3/1.

2.45 Golden Mile Handicap (1m, Class 2, 3yo+)

The strongest draw bias race in the calendar just about: low draws have it, high draws do not. Recent winners of this race have been drawn 4,15,9,5,4,2,1,3,3,5,1,1,15,7,1,8,13,5,9,1,3,3,3

Backing the lowest three drawn horses in that time arbitrarily would have returned a profit at SP of 40.75 points.

Moreover, when the going has been good or faster, stalls 1-5 have been responsible for the winner in five of the last seven years, and the second in the two non-winning years.

Here's the pace/draw heat map for ALL handicap races over a mile at Goodwood on quick ground with 14+ runners. Good luck if you fancy Montatham: he'll be a mighty horse to win from there.

Mark Johnston won this in 2012, 2010, 2009, 2001 and 1997 but has had plenty beaten since his last success. He's triple-handed this time and has lucked in with the draw for two of them, the forward-going pair Vale Of Kent and Cardsharp.

Joe Fanning is likely to set the fractions on Vale Of Kent, who was second in the race last year off a seven pound lower mark. That, incredibly, was from stall 17 and he has trap 3 this time: he's a definite player with Goodwood form of 2142 including three big field spins and is generally available at 10/1.

Cardsharp has Will Buick steering and emerges from box five. He has yet to run at the track and looks more of a seven furlong horse.

The highly progressive Prompting is drawn in stall two and is favourite. For all that he won well last time that was in a Class 4 seven furlong handicap on the wide open expanses of the Knavesmire: he looks like he'll be ridden for luck in a better race over further and is therefore not exciting at the price. His trainer, David O'Meara, is in excellent form and he could still be competitive with a clear run.

Another who will come later and need to be commensurately lucky in transit is Sir Busker. He's been impressive this term at a mile and shaped as though needing those extra yards when just failing to get up over seven at Newmarket last time. Up another five pounds for that effort won't help but the 'capper has been struggling to keep tabs on William Knight's progressive four-year-old.

Almufti has the inside stall and a nine pound weight pull with Sir Busker on Ascot running two starts back. He, more than most, will need the splits to arrive but he remains playable for small money at 14/1, hard luck potential notwithstanding.

Mostly, though, I think Vale Of Kent looks likely to run his race and is attractive at 10/1 with extra places if you like.

3.15 King George Stakes (5f, Group 2, 3yo+)

This race is all about Battaash, who is a very very fast horse and oozes class. His price of 4/11 reflects the strong likelihood that he'll win so you'll need plenty of elevens to be prepared to risk them to get some fours.

I had a good bet on Liberty Beach to finish second to Battaash at Ascot where she got chinned on the line by Equilateral. She's since been beaten into second in a Listed race but she won the Molecomb here last year and the slightly easier finish looks more to her tastes. She's my idea of the second and 7/4 without Battaash is the bet if you don't just want to cheer the high class jolly's anticipated procession.

Glass Slippers looks like she will appreciate a bit more give in the ground and perhaps another tilt at the Abbaye is where we'll see her best this term. Al Raya might not be impossible but the rest, including the French runner Ken Colt, probably are just about.

3.45 Glorious Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 4yo+)

Treacherous punting territory in spite of just seven lining up. The last winner at a double figure price was in 2001 so I'll use that as an excuse to overlook Le Don De Vie, Spirit Of Appin and, reluctantly, Thundering Blue.

That leaves a quartet at 5/1 or shorter headed by Communique, a horse who has forgotten how to win a touch. In fairness, he's been second three times since a Group 2 score in July last year, and was only a half length behind Eagles By Day over arguably a trip too far last time.

Desert Encounter has won absolute bundles - over a million quid, in fact - from his globetrotting exploits and he added another 57 'bags' (bag of sand = grand) when nicking this under a typically late Jamie Spencer ride last term. At around 3/1 he's a less appealing price this time than the 15/2 he returned then, but his case is more obvious. Jim Crowley takes over from Jamie.

Alounak is another to have acquired more than just air miles from his world tour, aggregating better than £330,000 to date. Alas, that was pretty much exclusively for his previous, German, trainer. Andrew Balding has managed 'just' the £30k with the son of Camelot in three spins to date, but he nearly stole the show in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. A capable fellow on his day, he's another who usually runs well in defeat.

That's a comment which can be applied to the 2-from-13 Pablo Escobarr also, though one of his brace was achieved in a maiden race here. This is a different level of difficulty and not one about which I'm excited for his chance.

Thundering Blue was such a devil a couple of seasons back putting his trainer, David Menuisier, on the map. He ran mostly flat last term, however, and it remains to be seen how much affection for the task the now seven-year-old retains. Likeable old sausage, all the same.

This is the sort of race where one arrives at a wager by a process of elimination. All have been serial non-winners in recent times with the exception of the reigning champ, Desert Encounter. He's very far from bombproof but is less unreliable than his rivals and gets the nod on that basis!

4.20 Nursery Handicap (6f, Class 2, 2yo)

I just don't know. Maybe Rooster or Perotti, both off the track for a month and more, both expected capable of better after the break, both representing respected Goodwood trainers. Next.

4.55 Fillies' Maiden (6f, Class 4, 2yo)

The bar beckons.

**

And that's Friday's somewhat truncated preview. I hope you don't mind me skipping the last pair: you shouldn't because I genuinely have no idea on those - even more so than the 30-odd races which preceded them this week!

As is customary, I will leave you to your own devices on Saturday and wish you well. And, as is customary, you may be very grateful of that come the time...

Many thanks for reading this week, and I hope you've both enjoyed the sport and perhaps found a nicely-priced winner or two.

Matt

p.s. There will be a crowd at Goodwood on Saturday. It will be the first occasion since mid-March that racegoers have been permitted to indulge their passion on site and, in these nervous tentative times, that feels like a small win. Let us hope that the macro situation allows for this to become our 'new normal', as there are plenty of racecourses up and down the land who rarely get more than the ceiling 5000 in attendance. In other words, they might get back somewhere close to business as usual, which will be good for all of us one way or another.

Baby steps, but on and up.

Glorious Goodwood 2020: Day 3 Preview, Tips

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And so to Day Three, Thursday, at Glorious Goodwood 2020. In the preview that follows I'll offer the usual thoughts and tips, with the standard caveats emptor in situ. The feature race of the day is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares over a distance of a mile and a quarter.

We start shortly after one o'clock, the first race being the...

1.10 Mirabeau En Provence Handicap (5f, Class 3 0-95, 3yo)

Some nippy three-year-olds do battle in the opener, a few of them in form, too. Somewhat unusually, five of the nine declared are fillies.

The pace looks set to be contested between, primarily, Glamorous Anna and Electric Ladyland, two of that filly quintet, and they may be joined by a third, Hand On My Heart.

It is Hand On My Heart that is of most interest of the early speed: she ought to be able to get a nice tow into the race, allowing for the fact that she is drawn on the outside and will have to tack across. The Clive Cox-trained Iffraaj filly makes her handicap debut here for a handler who boasts a 19% strike rate with 'cap debs in the past two years. Jockey Adam Kirby has a fine record at Goodwood and when riding for Cox.

Hand On My Heart does have to show that she's trained on, however: her form has tailed off - albeit in higher grade - since a debut win in a quite valuable fillies' stakes at Windsor last June. Three runs since, all in Class 1, have offered little hope.

Of the boys, 3/1 Bal Mal is on a hot streak having won his last four and five of his last six. The key has been the drop to five furlongs, where his record is unblemished thus far:

This mission is tougher again, of course, but the 'Then What?' figures on the right hand side tell us that his form is working out well enough. He ought to bid boldly for a sixth straight win at the minimum. He, too, should get a prominent early position and, from stall two, looks the most likely winner.

1.45 Unibet Handicap (1m2f, Class 2, 3yo)

A second three-year-olds only handicap, this time at ten furlongs. In what is a very trappy encounter, it looks a case of Mark Johnston versus the unexposed brigade. The winner of this race is normally rated 90+, as 15 of the last 17 were. However, I suspect the average OR in the race this term is slightly lower as a result of there having been less opportunities to advance a mark that far.

On that basis, I'm going to risk opposing the exposed Johnston pair in favour of less exposed, potentially more progressive rivals.

Johnston's Zabeel Champion is hardly exposed, with three wins from five starts, but he has shown more of his hand than many. Al Salt for example has won his last two of three career starts, none of them on turf, and represents a trainer - William Haggas - with a 25% strike rate first time in a handicap, as this lad is.

Roger Varian brings the only twice-raced Magnetised, narrowly beaten last time but recording a big Racing Post Rating. He steps up two furlongs in trip and improvement is likely rather than possible.

John Gosden has Magical Morning, another stepping up from a mile on this fifth career start. He was beaten on good to soft last time having won twice on good to firm previously. That shouldn't have been the decisive factor, but the extra range here might eke out more.

Plenty more improvers up and down the card, including Celtic Art whose father and son training team of Paul and Oliver Cole have won with three of their six handicap debutants so far this season. David Probert rides the top weight, who has already been second and first on these slopes.

And Oisin Murphy, the champion jockey, jumps on Starcat, a horse thought good enough to contest the 2000 Guineas two back and who may have resented the soft ground in Ascot's Britannia Stakes last time. Of course, an alternative theory is that he simply hasn't trained on; but I have sufficient respect for his trainer, Hughie Morrison, to note this one at a price.

It's a very difficult puzzle indeed.

2.15 Richmond Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

It is hard to know what to make of a seven-runner Group 2 where the top three in the betting were all beaten last time out, and two of them were out of the frame...

Favourite Yazaman has at least improved as he's gone up in class from race to race, with his second to Tactical in the G2 July Stakes reading well in this company. He led there as they got to the hill so this easier track could help him.

Mark Johnston trains Qaader for owner of the season, Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum: this son of Night Of Thunder got closest to the 150/1 Coventry Stakes boilover, Nando Parrado, but was then three lengths behind Yazaman. There's no obvious reason he should reverse placings.

Further back in the Coventry was Admiral Nelson, who was never travelling there. Obviously the O'Brien/Moore/Coolmore connection has always to be respected but their two-from-eight record in this came 18 years apart. Both were similarly lesser lights in the yard's hierarchy, however.

Clive Cox saddles Supremacy, who stepped forward from first to second start and made all to win well in a minor event at Windsor 24 days ago. The sectionals tell us that he was able to quicken off the reasonable gallop he'd set there and nothing laid a glove on him. This is much harder but he deserves his place.

Gussy Mac did well to win the five furlong Listed National Stakes at Sandown last time and has now won his last two of three. He's trained by Roger Teal, who is a whizz with sprinters as evidenced both by the brilliant win of Oxted in the Group 1 July Cup and his two-year statistics:

This extra furlong looks right for him now and he is one of the few that still look progressive for all that it may be too early to write some of his rivals off. He'd be a super postscript to Oxted's G1 success.

Lauded ran a similarly mediocre race to Admiral Nelson in the Coventry so, while any horse can be forgiven one poor run, he only had one good run previously and I don't really see why he should reverse with Qaader either.

This seems quite a disappointing turnout for a Group 2. Yazaman might appreciate the easier test after Newmarket, and Qaader is the main player bidding to salvage the Coventry form; but perhaps 8/1 Gussy Mac is the value against those who have already tried and failed at Group level. Supremacy is another of more interest at the prices than the black type losers atop the market.

2.45 Gordon Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 3yo)

Historically a trial for the St Leger and a benefit for Sir Michael Stoute, whose seven wins since 2001 will not be added to in 2020 as he is unrepresented. If the Richmond Stakes has a disappointing looking level of quality, the Goodwood beaks will be buoyed by the presence of four Derby runners in this renewal of the Gordon Stakes, including the second and the fourth.

The 2020 Derby has its place in infamy now as a race where the leaders appeared to steal it; Khalifa Sat had the cat-bird seat throughout and maintained it to the finish behind wide margin victor, Serpentine. The cavalry arrived too late with both English King and Mogul promising more than they delivered.

But were they as unlucky as they looked? Whilst the answer to that is "probably", this re-run between the three - and also the not-really-ever-in-it Highland Chief - will at the very least fuel the fire of those who have a strong view on the matter.

English King performed best of the closers and had previously delivered the best audition in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He is short in the market here but deservedly so in my view.

Khalifa Sat will have his supporters: he's a two-time scorer here including in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes, and bettered that form when running up in the Derby. He has the chance to show he's been under-rated in some quarters.

Meanwhile, Mogul's juvenile reputation has yet to be vindicated on the track in this campaign. For all that excuses can be made for his two 2020 efforts, they've both been underwhelming and he has to prove he's trained on.

The one who brings unequivocal form to the table is Al Aasy, who followed up a mile and a half novice stakes win with a victory in the 1m5f Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket three weeks ago. Both of those wins were with give in the ground, however, leaving the suspicion that this sharper track on a quicker lawn might not play to his obvious stamina strengths.

Mark Johnston runs the tough and consistent Subjectivist who, along with Khalifa Sat, may set the pace. It's never a surprise when a Johnston runner wins at Goodwood but this one would rate a disappointment if he was to lower the colours of the Derby form.

English King is the logical play here, but he's very short at around 6/4. I really like Al Aasy but not for this gig: he'd be interesting ante post for the St Leger if finishing well in defeat. Mogul has plenty to prove for me, so 9/2  Khalifa Sat might be a smidge of value. But it's a race I'll likely be watching without wagering.

 3.15 Nassau Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 3yo+ fillies and mares)

The feature race of the day, and a line up long on quality if a trifle short on quantity. Such is life this season with so many big races squished together after the resumption. Far better this way than any other, in my view.

Last year's shock winner Deirdre bids to double up. Now six, the Japanese raider was well beaten on her prep run last term and reprised that type of rehearsal in the Eclipse 25 days ago. This will have been the plan with an easy ten furlongs looking optimal; but there could be a lot less pace in the race this year than last, where she came with a devastating burst late on. Her form behind Magical looks pretty solid in the context of this field - in the context of most fields, in truth - and she sets a good standard.

But she's not favourite. That honour goes to Donnacha O'Brien's Fancy Blue. Donnacha, following in brother Joseph's footsteps as a son of Aiden to move from riding into training, won the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) last time with this filly having been second in the Irish 1000 Guineas the time before. Regular readers will be bored to tears by now of me decrying the value of French form but, again, the Diane featured three Irish runners in a field of eleven where the remainder were domestic fillies. The Irish finished 1-2-3. It's a desperate state of affairs across La Manche currently.

That's a verbose way of saying I'm against Fancy Blue - certainly at the prices. Both Alpine Star and Peaceful - mile Group 1 winners this season - may not have got home, and the rest were French. Fancy Blue can win, duh, but she's short enough.

Between Donnacha's and Deirdre in the betting lists is the wildly progressive John Gosden inmate, Nazeef. Only third on debut, she's rattled off six straight wins since, most recently in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and then the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. She fits here on ability, then, but all of her winning has been achieved at up to a mile to this point: the step up to ten furlongs is not out of the question on either pedigree - out of a Dubawi mare - or performance (she tends to lead late in her races hinting that she might go further), but it is an unknown. The perceived absence of a strong early tempo would be in her favour.

Magic Wand is a legitimate Group 2 filly and, in this strange year, there are plenty of Group 1's to be snaffled with such a type. But not this one, I don't think. She finished just in front of Deirdre at Sandown and also in the Irish Champion Stakes last September, but I have the feeling that this is Deirdre's seasonal target whereas Magic Wand is expected to attempt to produce many more rabbits from hats yet.

I'd be struggling to make a cohesive case for any of Queen Power, One Voice and Lavender's Blue, although this trip is likely to suit all three better than the shorter ranges over which they were beaten last time.

A cracking race in prospect, but perhaps a tactical one. That slightly puts me off Deirdre, though I respect her chance greatly; and I instead favour the 11/4 about Nazeef who, if she does have suspect stamina on the step up in trip, may find that mitigated by the combination of the easier track and the projected steady pace. She's bidding for a seven-timer and might just develop into a champion we've yet to recognise.

3.45 Nursery Handicap (7f, Class 2, 2yo)

Impossible stuff here as eleven of the dozen runners make their handicap bows. Messrs Johnston and Hannon have won plenty of these down the years, normally with a fancied runner. Johnston's pair are at double figure odds as I write, while one of Hannon's brace is 6/1 Running Back.

He was a (well beaten) second to Qaader, who runs in the Richmond Stakes earlier on the card, on debut; then only just seen off in a Kempton novice. Both of those races were six furlongs and this extra eighth looks right for a son of Muhaarar. I'm totally guessing, of course, but if I had to draw one of these in a sweepstake I'd be happy enough with this fellow. Oh, and he's in Qatari ownership, which may suggest this has been the target all along given their overall sponsorship of the meeting.

Good luck if you're playing. I doubt I will be.

4.20 Fillies' Maiden (7f, Class 2, 2yo)

Moving on...

4.55 Tatler Nursery Handicap (5f, Class 2, 2yo)

Another guess up, this time though we have horses that have mostly raced over this minimum distance. It's a new race and an interesting one, which is not to say that I have any iota regarding who might win. In this clueless spirit, I will offer two.

Nigel Tinkler's squad were pretty slow out of the traps after resumption but have warmed up a little in recent weeks. He saddles 13/2 Acklam Express, who improved from first to second start to win readily at Hamilton 18 days ago. His trainer doesn't saddle many at Goodwood: in fact, this will be only the third Tinkler runner at the track in the last five years. The other two finished second and first, the winner coming in a nursery handicap.

The other is 15/2 Different Face, whose Yarmouth second to Yazaman may look very good - or pretty moderate - after the Richmond Stakes. He made all on his only subsequent start in an average Lingfield novice, and his trainer is in white hot form just now, as you can see below. Crisford also has an excellent record with handicap debutants, though I'd read less into that in a race where they're virtually all squeezing into that overcrowded train carriage.

The favourite, and odds on at time of writing, is Winter Power. Trained by Tim Easterby he put two bronze medal finishes behind him when lashing home by five lengths in a Redcar nursery on Monday. He carries just the six pounds penalty here prior to reassessment and was clearly put in too low by the handicapper ahead of that assignment. Unless you like risking more than your potential reward in fields full of unexposed types, the better question to answer here might be which others have been underestimated by the assessor?

*

Good luck with your Day 3 Goodwood wagers. It's not easy - it's not supposed to be, I guess - but it does look terrific sport, and the Nassau Stakes is a very interesting, and high class, race indeed.

Matt

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