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As with the previous week, it was one winner from six and a small loss on the week meaning we're behind schedule for July. results/performances seemed to get better as the week went on, but July is proving a far tougher nut to crack than June was.
We're probably 2 w or 3 winners shy of where we would like to be, but that said, the numbers post-lockdown still look more than respectable, I just need to get back amongst the winners again.
Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday, but please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.
Chris
Selections & Results : 13/07/20 to 18/07/20
13/07 : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5 14/07 : Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3 15/07 : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1
16/07 : Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 17/07 : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 16/5
18/07 : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2
13/07/20 to 18/07/20 : 1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -1.80pts
July 2020 :
2 winners from 15 = 13.33% SR P/L: -7.30pts
ROI = -48.66%
2020 to date :
19 winners from 102 = 18.63% SR P/L: +5.70pts
ROI = +5.59%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
Racing at Catterick racecourse dates back to the mid 17th century so this North Yorkshire circuit is steeped in tradition, writes Dave Renham. It is a left-handed undulating track that is considered quite sharp: its circumference is a mile and a furlong with a run in of around three furlongs. Races over five furlongs start from a separate chute with a shallow turn into the home straight; all other races are raced on the main round course.
As with previous articles in this series I am using some of the tools available on the Geegeez website, those being the Draw Analyser, Pace Analyser and Query Tool. The main data set covers 11 years from 2009 to 2019, but as usual I will also examine a more recent grouping (2015 to 2019) where appropriate. The focus is once again on 8+ runner handicap races.
Catterick 5f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
Since 2009 there have been 151 qualifying races over the minimum distance. Here are the 11 year stats:
An even looking split with lower draws faring marginally best. Looking at the A/E values, these show a correlation with the draw win percentages:
The 5f trip at Catterick did display a relatively strong bias around 15 years ago for five or six seasons. I will use the five-year comparison data method I used in recent articles to illustrate how the bias has changed over the years. To recap, using five-year datasets is a way to try and compare stats more effectively than simply looking at the figures for single years. This method also highlights whether/when patterns are changing, as well as giving more reliable sample sizes. So here are the Catterick 5f figures going right back to the first data set (1997 to 2001):
I have highlighted in green where the low draw bias seemed prevalent from 2004 to 2009. The bias coincided with a significant increase in the number of races and personally I did well during this period. During these six seasons, if you had permed the three lowest drawn horses in 6 x £1 straight forecasts you would have been in profit to the tune of £401. If just concentrating on the two lowest draws and having a reverse £1 straight forecast in each race (2004-2009) profits would have been £340 – not bad considering the outlay would only have been £124 and you would have got that £124 back too.
Perming favoured draws is something that can still make you money today but there are seemingly less opportunities. Having said that, despite low draws not dominating like they did 15 years ago, in the past eleven seasons you would have still made a profit by perming the two lowest draws in reverse forecasts, and quite a profit: £539 to be precise!
There were eight winning forecasts over the 11 years and four of the dividends were decent creating the sizeable returns. In addition, from 2009 to 2019 if you had also permed the three lowest draws in 6 x £1 tricasts you would have secured four winning bets producing a profit of £1160. Admittedly there was one winning tricast in excess of £1000, but that is what tricasts can pay. Exotic betting using draw positions is a patience game but with huge potential for relatively small individual race outlays.
Looking at the 2009-2019 data the most important factor in terms of the draw is ground conditions. The going does seem to make a significant difference to draw bias, so let us look at the results for races on good or firmer going. There have been 81 races which have provided the following draw splits:
Lower draws have a clear advantage when the ground rides good or faster with high draws at a fairly significant disadvantage. Draws 1 to 5 have been roughly 2.5 times more likely to win than draws 6 or wider.
The A/E values for these ground conditions correlate clearly too:
As you probably have guessed by now, the bias seems to switch when the going gets softer. There have been 70 races under softer conditions with the following draw results:
Under these conditions high draws have the edge. The A/E figures back up the draw stats:
What seems to happen when the going gets softer is that the ground closest to the far rail becomes slightly slower than the middle to stands side of the track. A good example of the high draw bias came on 19th August 2019 in a race won by The Grey Zebedee on soft ground. All the horses stayed away from the far rail and most made a beeline to the nearside and the stands’ rail. If you watch the race it is easy to understand why five of the first six home were drawn 11 (1st), 10 (2nd), 14 (3rd), 13 (4th) and 15 (6th). Watching races is important and as a statistician I do appreciate that numbers alone do not always tell the complete story.
One has to be careful, however, and we cannot blindly assume low draws have little chance in soft conditions, as there will be occasions when the far rail is not slower for whatever reason. Indeed in a race won by Count Dorsey on 19th October last year the far rail was actually quicker that day with the first four home drawn 3, 4, 2 and 1. Again, it is not just the numbers that suggest this; if you watch the race the ground next to the far side rail is clearly quicker.
This race actually is important to mention from another draw angle, something I first read about back in the 1990s. The angle is ‘negative draw bias’, a phrase I believe was coined by none other than new Geegeez writer, Russell Clarke. Negative draw bias looks to highlight horses that have run well from a poor draw with a view to possibly backing them next time, or certainly within the next three races.
In this race dominated by low draws the horse who finished fifth, Teruntum Star, was drawn 12 and did best of the horses that raced in the centre of the track. Not only that, but the race was dominated by horses which raced close to the pace, and he was 13th heading into the final two furlongs. Moreover, he lost momentum and ground when having to switch around three horses in the final furlong. Thus, Teruntum Star was a horse that had run well having been disadvantaged by the draw, but also by how the race was run. Six days later Teruntum Star hosed up at Newbury, winning by two lengths at a tasty price of 14/1.
It is time now to look at each five furlong draw position broken down by individual stall number for the 11 seasons. I use the Geegeez Query Tool to give me the relevant data:
As you might expect given the shifting ground-dependant nature of bias there are no real patterns here, so actually it makes more sense to look at this individual draw data by splitting it into good or firmer results and then good to soft or softer results. Let’s look at the individual draw figures for races run on good ground or firmer:
A blind profit for draws 1 and 2, and the A/E values for draws 1 to 5 help to further demonstrate the low draw advantage on faster ground. This is a definitely a better way to the view Catterick’s 5f individual draw stats.
The individual draw positions on slow ground (good to soft or softer) are below:
Again this paints the picture I was hoping it would: profits for draws 12, 13 and 14 backing up the fact that in general higher draws are favoured under these softer conditions. For the record the three highest stall numbers (not necessarily 13, 14 and 15 of course) won 2.25 times more races than the bottom three draws.
Onto a more recent data set looking at the past five seasons (2015-2019). Here are the draw splits for the 70 races that have occurred during this time frame.
These figures match the 11 year data very closely, as do the A/E values which are all within 0.01 of the long term stats.
Splitting by going over the past five seasons also matches the long term figures:
Catterick 5f Draw Bias, 8+ Runner Handicaps, Good or firmer (2015-2019)
Catterick 5f Draw Bias, 8+ Runner Handicaps, Good to Soft or softer (2015-2019)
So, from what appeared to begin with when looking at the initial 11 year draw stats to be a course with little interest, Catterick’s five-furlong trip is of clear note to the draw punter. I did investigate whether field size made any difference but the data is virtually identical for when comparing smaller fields to bigger ones.
Catterick 5f Handicaps (8+ Runners) Pace Bias
Let us look at pace and running styles now. I have always considered the 5f trip at Catterick to offer a strong front running advantage so let’s see if the stats back up the theory. The overall figures (2009-19) are as follows:
In terms of UK turf courses, 5f handicap races at Catterick show one of the strongest front-running biases of all. from an A/E value and win percentage for front runners perspective, it comes out as the sixth highest; and the IV figure sees it as the fourth highest (for more on A/E and IV, read this post). In addition to that, hold up horses have one of the worst records amongst all UK courses too: hold up horses at the Yorkshire track have the fourth worst win percentage, the fourth worst A/E value and the fourth worst IV figure.
If we look at the effect of going it seems that softer ground (good to soft or softer) slightly increases the win prospects of front runners:
Conversely, on good or firmer ground front runners have fared slightly less well, though they retain a very clear edge:
One cannot be 100% confident that softer going increases the front running bias, but such ground conditions are at least unlikely to negate the front running edge. What is clear is that, regardless of going, you’d rather be watching the race having backed the horse that has taken the lead early than a horse racing in rear.
Looking at field size data there seems to be little or no evidence that number of runners makes any difference to the pace bias.
Finally in this 5f section a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners over the minimum distance. Remember, this is looking at which third of the draw is responsible for the early leader of the race (in % terms). I would expect the early leader to be drawn lower more often rather than higher:
As expected horses drawn further away from the far rail struggle to get to the lead early. Having said that, of the 23 who have managed it nine went on to win with another eight managing to place. Hence, it seems that it is possible to lead all the way from a wide draw given the chance. For hold up horses it seems an even worse scenario if you are drawn low – just 3 wins from 140 runners (SR 2.1%). Indeed only a further 13 managed to hit the frame which means over 88% of all low drawn hold up horses finished 4th or worse.
Here is the draw/pace heat map sorted by percentage of rivals beaten:
So the Catterick 5f distance is extremely interesting from both a draw and a pace perspective. Considering the even looking draw data shared at the beginning of this piece, I think several useful pointers have been uncovered.
Catterick 6f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
The six furlong trip is on the round course, starting halfway down the back straight, and from 2009 to 2019 there had been 133 races. Here are the draw splits:
Some even looking figures with middle draws doing slightly better than the rest. Let’s see if the A/E figures offer better pointers:
There is reasonably good correlation here, but it does seem that lower draws are slightly overbet. This makes some sense as the nature of the track being left handed would theoretically offer inside draws (low) a slight edge. For whatever reason this is not the case.
Looking at statistics for the going, the figures remain constant regardless of ground conditions. On softer ground, as with 5f races, the near side generally rides quicker than the far side. Horses more often than not come middle to stands’ side in the straight in these easier conditions, but the higher draws seem unable to take advantage of it due to the turning nature of the trip.
In terms of field size, the maximum number of runners is just 12 so there is nothing to add on that score.
A look at the individual draw positions now:
I must concede that I had not expected the individual draw data to be of much interest, but draws 6 to 8 are all in profit coupled with decent looking A/E values. This table does suggest there may be some value in that area of the draw. Draws 10 and 11 have also proved profitable, while draws 1 and 2 have both incurred significant losses (roughly 44 and 51p in the £). Those profits are backed up by increased win and place percentages.
It is unlikely the more recent data will paint a different picture but here are the stats from 2015 to 2019:
76 races is a decent sample and middle draws are best once again with a slightly higher win percentage in the last five years compared to the last 11 years.
Onto the A/E values for 2015-2019:
The middle third once again boasting a value figure of 1.00 or more which is a positive.
Now a look at the individual draw figures for this latest five-year period. It will be interesting to see how stalls 6 to 8 have fared over the shorter time frame:
Draws 6 and 7 have proved profitable in the win market over the past five seasons, while stall 8 has essentially broken even (did make a small each way profit). Once again draws 1 and 2 have lost decent sums, as have draws 3 and 5.
Catterick 6f Pace Bias (8+ Runner Handicaps)
Let us now turn to pace and running styles. Here are the overall figures going back to 2009:
These figures show that front runners have an edge of a similar degree to the one enjoyed by pace setters over 5f, albeit slightly less potent. However, we know that front running pace bias is generally stronger at five furlongs than six, and essentially this bias is a strong one for the distance. In terms of win percentage, Catterick’s front runner figures rate as the third strongest amongst UK turf courses (6f), while the A/E value puts this course and distance in fourth overall.
In terms of going, there does seem to be more of an edge for front runners on better ground. Let us examine the stats for 6f handicaps run on good going or firmer:
These are some impressive figures for front runners, which win close to one in every four races; meanwhile, hold up horses are at the opposite end of the scale winning less that 5% of the time on quick ground.
Onto good to soft or softer going now:
Prominent runners have an equally good record to front runners on this easier ground, but it should be noted that it seems even more difficult to win if racing mid-pack or at the rear early.
The penultimate tables in this 6f section looks at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners in 6f handicaps (2009 – 2019). I would expect lower draws to lead more often than higher ones simply due to the left handed configuration:
Higher draws do lead least often, but it is interesting to note that middle drawn horses have got to the lead slightly more often than lower drawn horses closer to the inside rail. It is also worth noting that hold up horses drawn low, just like at 5f, find it virtually impossible to win – just 4 have prevailed from 146 such runners.
Finally a look at the draw/pace heat map for Catterick's six furlongs, again sorted by percentage of rivals beaten (PRB).
The messages already shared are underscored by this image. Front runners have a solid edge almost regardless of draw, though those drawn middle to wide fare best of the trailblazers. Hold up horses have a lot to do, especially when drawn inside.
In summary, 6f handicaps at Catterick offer real interest from a pace perspective. Front runners enjoy a powerful edge which is strongest on good or firmer ground. Hold up horses have a very poor time of it. In terms of the draw one could argue there is some value in horses drawn in the middle with stalls 6, 7 and 8 seemingly best.
Catterick 7f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
The seven furlong trip is raced on the round course with low draws once again positioned next to the inside rail. 209 handicap races have been run with 8 or more runners since 2009. Here is the draw breakdown:
Clearly 7f is a very level playing field in terms of the draw. Onto the A/E values:
As with the 6f figures, A/E suggests that low draws are marginally overbet.
Field size potentially makes a small difference with very high draws finding it slightly harder to win. Races of 13 or more runners give these figures:
In truth however, it is nothing to write home about.
Ground conditions also offer no notable edge so let's move on to the individual draw positions:
Nothing clear cut although draws 7 and 8 have again secured a blind profit.
Time to check out more recent data, from 2015 onwards. There have been 88 qualifying races since the start of 2015, giving the following draw breakdown:
This shows a very similar perspective to the 11 year stats with a level playing field in terms of the draw. Below are the A/E values, which correlate well with the draw figures:
Onto the individual draw positions for the past five seasons:
Again, there is nothing clear cut although both draws 8 and 9 have secured a profit. Ultimately, it is probably fair to say that there is little interest from a draw perspective over Catterick's 7f trip.
Catterick 7f Pace Bias (8+ Runner Handicaps)
Onto pace now, and first a look at the overall pace data now (2009-2019):
The 7f distance does has a decent front running bias which, considering the lack of draw bias interest, is pleasing to report. As with the 5f and 6f trips, hold up horses really struggle.
Looking at how the going affects the results, and as with the 6f trip it seems that front runners over 7f do better when going gets firmer. Let me look at the stats for 7f handicaps run on good going or firmer:
The win percentage for front runners is again high, edging close to 23%.
As expected, on good to soft or softer front runners perform less well:
There is still a small edge for front runners but it is essentially only moderately significant.
A quick look at the impact of field size in 7f handicaps: in smaller fields over 7f (8 to 10 runners), the front running win percentage is 23.3% (A/E 1.62); in races of 13 or more runners the win percentage is 13.9% with an A/E of 1.37. So smaller fields are slightly better from a front running point of view.
Before closing, a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations.
First, the split for front runners in 7f handicaps (2009 – 2019):
Lower drawn horses are more likely to get to the front early. As with 5f and 6f races, low drawn horses that are held up have a poor record, this time notching just 10 wins from 259 runners (SR 3.8%).
Here is the draw/pace heat map through the prism of PRB:
The seeming irrelevance of draw is matched only by the consistently gradual impact of run style, from led (best) and prominent to mid-division (no edge) and held up (notably under-perform).
*
Catterick is a strongly pace-orientated track where handicap races from five- to seven-furlongs see front runners having much the best of it. Hold up horses really struggle and this is accentuated if they happen to be drawn low.
Indeed, of the 548 horses held up from a low draw in 8+ runner handicaps over seven furlongs or shorter since 2009, just 17 (3.1%) managed to win.
Specifically at five furlongs, the going is key from a draw perspective, with low dominating on good ground or firmer, and high faring best on softer ground. Over six furlongs, middle draws may have a slight edge, while over 7f there is no draw bias - though still a pace bias - under any conditions.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Catterick_Sprint.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2020-07-13 15:49:282020-07-13 15:49:28Catterick Draw & Pace Bias
The community here at geegeez.co.uk is one of the most considered racing fan collectives in these fair isles, something which doesn't happen by accident. We deliberately cultivate a thoughtful dynamic: I want this to be a place where people who love to engage with the cerebral side of the puzzle hang out. And I want to help racing fans to get as close to the sport as possible, in as many ways as possible.
One of the ways geegeez has facilitated that is through racehorse syndicates. You may or may not be aware that so far in 2020 our syndicates have celebrated ten victories, including one at Listed level. And that's in a year where we lost three months or so to the lockdown!
The challenges of syndication are threefold: the right trainers, the right horses, and the right co-owners.
Let's start with the trainers.
Trainers
We currently send horses to four trainers, two predominantly flat and two predominantly jumps. They are Mick Appleby and Wilf Storey on the level, and Anthony Honeyball and Olly Murphy over obstacles. These are four of the many excellent trainers in Britain.
Each operates in a very different way, each works for us with a different sort of horse, and each has given us great pleasure on and off the track.
Anthony Honeyball was the first of the four and, as well as having horses trained by him, geegeez.co.uk also sponsors his yard and his two jockeys, Rex Dingle and Ben Godfrey. We currently have two exciting mares in training with him at his base on the Dorset/Somerset border, with a third likely to follow later this summer.
Olly Murphy is a rising star of the game having raced to 223 winners (at time of writing) in a splash more than three years. He sent out his first winner, Dove Mountain, on 4th July 2017... and his first Cheltenham Festival runner was a geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse, Oxford Blu.
Training from a large estate in Wilmcote near Stratford-upon-Avon, Olly also saddled the consistent Swaffham Bulbeck to win a couple of races for us, on consecutive Gold Cup days! After the second victory, in March this year, he was claimed and we don't currently have any horses at the Warwickshire base. But we're on the look out for an exciting juvenile hurdler with which to dream of the Cheltenham Festival once again.
Wilf Storey is an unassuming trainer based in Muggleswick, County Duham, and the horses we have there are generally private syndicates. A sheep farmer mainly, Wilf has had a terrific career which includes something that neither Olly nor Anthony has achieved to date, a Cheltenham Festival winner. Great Easeby was his name, and he won the 1996 Gold Card Handicap Hurdle, now the Pertemps Final. Wilf doesn't have jumpers any more but he punches above his weight with a handful of 'cast offs' that nearly always win at a price.
Mick Appleby is the most recent addition to the team. Perennially all-weather champion trainer, we sent two syndicate horses to him last summer, both of which have won twice for us. Importantly, both ran frequently, collected a fair amount of prize money, and gave their owners plenty of good days out. One of the pair was sold last week, the other 'bought in' to re-frame that syndicate; and we'll be looking to acquire another horse to run late flat season and through the winter in the coming months.
Horses
The team of horses shared amongst those trainers varies from time to time. The biggest 'string' we had was ten and, to be honest, that was too many from an admin perspective. I run the syndicates personally and they do take a chunk of time to look after. So it'll be a smaller squad going forwards, and currently numbers five though will be rising to seven or eight by year end.
These are our current horses:
Coquelicot
A four-year-old filly by Soldier Of Fortune out of Moscow Nights, she has the same 'mum' as Heartbreak City, who won the Ebor Handicap and was a very close second in the Melbourne Cup. Another half-sister is Melburnian, currently trained - like Heartbreak City - by Tony Martin in Ireland. She bolted up in a Premier Handicap at Leopardstown last autumn and is currently rated in the mid-80's on the flat.
Back to Coquelicot - Cookie - she was bought for €26,000 as a yearling at the 2017 Arqana Autumn sale by me (with help from Anthony, Ryan Mahon, and Ron 'Double Trigger' Huggins, as well as syndicateer Jeremy Blackburn, who was also part of that jolly boys' outing) and the plan was to find a racy dual-purpose type. A small niggle put paid to the planned backend juvenile flat spins, but the time out allowed her to develop physically and still be ready for a 'junior bumper' campaign.
That campaign, as can be seen below, was highly productive: she ran five times, following up two runners-up efforts with a spectacular hat-trick culminating in that Listed race win at Kempton. Her full form is below:
She'll go novice hurdling this season and we're excited to see how far she can progress. Once racing is done with, she'll be a valuable broodmare proposition, too; and then we'll get to cheer on her babies in years to come!
Windswept Girl
Another unraced filly, this time a 'store', we bought this now five-year-old Getaway mare privately from a field in June 2018 for £20,000. Her dam, Chicago Vic, was a hardy consistent performer with multiple black type (Listed and Graded) placings to her name.
Not flashy at home we were just hoping for a bit of promise when she made her somewhat belated debut over Taunton's sharp two mile trip. The ground was horrible that day but she seemed to relish it: after running green and gawky in the early stages, she barrelled away from her field to score by an ever-widening 13 lengths at the line. And there were we thinking she wanted three miles!
In fairness, it was probably not much of a race, but she couldn't do more than bolt up and we remain excited about her in the context of a greater stamina test.
Nearly There
We currently have two horses with Wilf, Nearly There and Somewhat Sisyphean. They are fun handicappers, a little different in type.
Nearly There was placed in a couple of bumpers before getting handicapped on the flat. He's a consistent performer who just gallops. A winner of two, most recently in March, he's been undone by a slow pace the last twice, his jockey each time being suckered into thinking he's travelling like the winner. If he's travelling like that, he's about to get outpaced off a slow early gallop!
When he has a pace to run at, such as when he won at Redcar finishing best, or when he is made plenty of use of, such as when he ground it out from the front at Newcastle in March off steady fractions, he will always be a threat at his current level. He'll be winning again soon.
Somewhat Sisyphean
This lad is proving very well-named. Having completely fluffed the start the last thrice, he's been beaten less far at the finish than he lost at the outset on each occasion. He'll win when he breaks at least moderately alertly, we hope!
As an aside, Wilf's horses are usually a price. Indeed, here's the handicap form of the horses he's trained for us:
They're collectively +26 points at SP. But who in their right mind bets at SP? 😉
Elhafei
This chap is the embodiment of racing's enigmatic appeal. A half million-plus purchase as a yearling, we acquired him for marginally less (ahem) - £20k - at the Tattersall's May sale last year. He'd run five times for John Gosden over seven furlongs and a mile, mostly with promise, and was rated 74 when we got him.
He worked like a very good horse and we were excited about his debut at Newcastle over ten furlongs. But he ran flat, perhaps just needing his first run for 371 days. Next time he was third, a position he secured on three further consecutive starts, before breaking that sequence with a second place finish at Sandown again over ten furlongs.
Consistent, slightly frustrating, but accruing a few quid back into the kitty. What to do? Up in trip? Down in trip? His stride data suggested seven furlongs to a mile, his pedigree - Speightstown out of a staying mare - offered mixed messages. He really was proving to be a conundrum.
We decided to drop him back in trip to around a mile, at which distance he ran generally moderately though with legit excuses on a couple of occasions. Finally, out of desperation more than anything, we pushed him up to a distance beyond a mile and a half for the first time on 8th June. He fair dotted up, travelling easily and quickening away off a decent early tempo. Bingo!
Next time, over a similar trip at Wolverhampton, he bumped into one: the Wolves specialist, Gold Arch (career handicap record: 4 from 9, Wolverhampton handicap record: 4 from 4). Despite getting whacked seven lengths there, he had just shy of ten between himself and the closest of the other eight rivals, and he did miles best of those racing close to the speed.
Most recently, back at Lingfield though switched to turf and over a mile and six, he burrowed up the inside rail under Oisin Murphy to prevail in a tight finish. This was exciting not just for the manner of victory in the moment, but also because it showed his ability on turf as well as synthetic surfaces and in a steadily-run race as well as in a more truly-run affair. The fine margin of his verdict had two further benefits: firstly, his rider suggested afterwards that Lingfield's slopes were not ideal, teasing of more to come; and second, he only went up two pounds in the weights.
The moral of the story is, there is nearly always a different path to take, a different thing to try. We'll be a touch disappointed if Elhafei is not able to win again before probably heading to the October sales after which he might make a promising novice hurdler for somebody.
Owners
The final component of a good syndicate is, or are, the right owners. Racehorse ownership is not for everyone: as can be readily seen from the above, it requires patience - sometimes before a horse is ready to run (Coquelicot, Windswept Girl), sometimes to get the right setup (Nearly There), and sometimes to find 'the key' (Elhafei, Somewhat Sisyphean).
There are more disappointing and frustrating days than exhilarating ones, but they all have their place and they all contextualise and enhance the owner experience.
Owners lose money. This is a harsh and brutal reality; anyone presenting a different perspective should probably be avoided. But drinkers lose money, anglers lose money, golfers lose money, and so on. Spending leisure pounds on a leisure pursuit is a tremendous pleasure for those lucky enough to have some disposable income; and, for horseracing fans, syndicate ownership is a great way to get (relatively) affordably involved.
In my time running syndicates under the geegeez.co.uk banner, I've welcomed more than 70 people into those groups. There have been a couple (like, two) who I found a little more difficult than ideal, mainly because they didn't fully grasp the nature of the game. The rest, the vast majority, have been engaged in good times and less good times, and have taken all that comes as part and parcel of the experience. [It really is an 'experience', by the way, rough and smooth; great days out, on the track and at the yard; memorable moments aplenty, mostly but not exclusively for good].
What next?
As you may have seen from my recent emails, and from the notes above, I'm going to be active at the sales in the next couple of months. I'm looking for a store horse project, a potential juvenile hurdler, and a lad or lass to run on the flat, including through the winter. If you might be interested, you can find more information - and tell me which type of setup would be your preference - here >
Regardless of whether or not you're interested in a future syndicate, I hope you've learnt a bit about how we operate and the horses we have; and I hope you'll cheer them on when you see them running!
Matt
p.s. please don't message me asking if I fancy one. They are ALWAYS doing their best (obviously), the clues are all there in the form book regarding optimal conditions, and I've specifically teased out most of those clues in the above. Use your own skill and judgement thereafter 😉
4.50 Newcastle : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Quickly away and keen, always close up, led over 3f out, clear lead over 2f out, driven and stayed on well) A welcome winner, that the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map had spot on!
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in an 8-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
Starting with the racecard...
A horse in decent form, placed LTO a week ago and is trained at an in-form yard as highlighted by the 30 icon and the subsequent Trainer Stats report.
What the above doesn't tell you, is what I'll focus on now...
And of that 11/58 record, the following is of relevance today...
10/43 (23.3%) for 59.87pts (+139.2%) during June-September
9/46 (19.6%) for 52.97pts (+115.1%) from male runners
8/36 (22.2%) for 33.68pts (+93.6%) on the Flat
7/29 (24.1%) for 22.12pts (+73.6%) at Class 6
7/23 (30.4%) for 13.41pts (+58.3%) at 6/1 and shorter
6/21 (28.6%) for 28.96pts (+137.9%) over 6f
6/20 (30%) for 58pts (+290%) from those placed 3rd LTO
and 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.51pts (+111.6%) with Phil Dennis in the saddle...
...whilst Class 6 males are 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 27.21pts (+209.34% ROI) on the Flat during June to September, including two wins from four for today's pick, Dodgy Bob...
...guiding us towards...a 1pt win bet on Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-07-13 07:18:052020-07-13 08:16:23Stat of the Day, 13th July 2020
As one of the world’s leading football agents, Jonathan Barnett, with his business partner David Manasseh, through their Stellar Group, heads up probably the biggest “stable” of footballers in the world, writes Tony Stafford. Always a racing fan, Barnett has lately been making tentative moves into racehorse ownership but for much of this year he would have been excused for thinking he might never have another runner.
Injuries have either delayed or ended the careers of three of his hopefuls, one with Wesley Ward being a particular disappointment.
Over the winter, Eden Gardens, owned in partnership with Manesseh’s father Maurice, and trained by Simon Crisford, did at least have a couple of all-weather runs without much luck. All his horses are partnerships, usually with his share carrying the name of his son James, who also works in the family business.
Like all owners Barnett’s aim is to win a Group race one day and failing that to have the all-important “Saturday horse”. Well he might not yet have achieved the former part of his wish-list, but on Saturday, as was readily trailed by Alex Hammond on Sky Sports Racing beforehand, he did have a runner in a three-year-old fillies’ race on that Ascot card.
Margaret Dumont, named after a regular character in the Marx Brothers films, is listed as owned by Tactful Finance and J Barnett. Tactful Finance is the father-and-son team of Cyril and Jonathan Shack. Cyril was one of the mainstays in the Paul Kelleway stable in the 1980’s, often in partnerships with, among others, David Dein, one-time Arsenal Vice-Chairman and the man who recruited Arsene Wenger.
The younger Shack is a Marx Brothers devotee and he sourced the Camelot filly at the 2018 yearling sales, paying only 20,000gns for her. Mark Johnston agreed to take her having approved her looks even though she didn’t meet his own strict rating criterion for one of his own purchases.
The Ascot race included three other well-connected fillies, home-breds owned respectively by the Queen and Bjorn Nielsen, with a third bred by David and Diane’s Nagle’s Barronstown Stud but now in different ownership.
Joe Fanning set off in front on Margaret Dumont, encouraged by the stamina she had shown when third on debut over ten furlongs at Thirsk last month. The Queen’s Lightness, a daughter of Shamardal trained by John Gosden, had had three previous placed runs behind her; and when she took up the running in the home straight, Barnett was resigned to her fate.
But then the renowned Johnston factor kicked in and Margaret Dumont rallied to beat the 82-rated favourite in a tight finish. This promising filly has a bright future, especially when allowed to race over further. Charlie Johnston was quickly on the phone saying her entry in a sale later this month would not be fulfilled.
Barnett also bought into a French-trained horse last year, but the then two-year-old Fitzcarraldo was always going to take time to come to hand. A big, backward son of Makfi, again relatively-cheaply bought at €27,000, he came strongly recommended by Nicolas Clement, but as the spring and lockdown wore on, there was little sign of any action.
Those planned trips across to Paris and Chantilly for weekend breaks were just a forlorn illusion, but then suddenly the by-now gelded Fitzcarraldo started pleasing the ever-patient Clement. He was ready for a first run early this month over 10 furlongs at Compiegne and, having turned for home well behind the principals, stayed on all the way home to finish an eight-length fifth to Zaykava, a son of top French stallion Siyouni out of the unbeaten Arc winning champion, Zarkava.
Barnett has a half-share in this potential stayer with the trainer and his breeder Hubert Honore taking the other half. With the public now being allowed back on track in France, starting at Deauville yesterday, those summer – what’s left of it – excursions on Eurostar might still be possible.
Deauville featured the full restitution to Group 1 success – if not yet domination of his generation - of Pinatubo. Beaten in both the 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes, he was a deserved winner of the Prix Jean Prat, run over seven furlongs (formerly a mile) since last year. Runner-up yesterday was Lope Y Fernandez, twice well behind Charlie Appleby’s champion last year, but now within three-quarters of a length, spectacularly out-running his 40-1 odds.
Pinatubo’s exploits last year were a fitting closing memento for sire Shamardal’s career which ended with his death earlier in 2020. Winning a Group 1 (and hopefully for Godolphin more) as a three-year-old adds credibility to the obvious stallion appeal of an unbeaten champion juvenile.
Saturday’s highlight in the UK was the July Cup and I’ve not heard a single negative word about Oxted’s trainer Roger Teal who goes around the whole time with a smile on his face. Anyone who has met Roger will find it hard to believe he was once a jumps jockey, but he’s a talented trainer as his previous handling of 2,000 Guineas runner-up (to Saxon Warrior) Tip Two Win amply testified.
Now his training career has gone into a different orbit. Oxted, a four-year-old son of Mayson, fully justified Teal’s decision to avoid Royal Ascot after his Palace House Stakes success last month, by beating the winners of both the Commonwealth Cup (Golden Horde) and Golden Jubilee (Hello Youmzain) as well as Sceptical and Khaadem, who were third and fourth in the latter event.
There was no hint of a fluke about the result as this former handicapper was always up with the pace and found much the best speed up the hill. His sire won the same race in his four-year-old season on officially heavy ground, something that is always thrown up to diminish his excellence as a racehorse.
This progressive sprinter, who as a gelding will have no stud future to worry about, will be free to continue to give pleasure on the track to his trainer and three owners who include Tony Hirschfeld. Tony’s had plenty of success over the years with horses trained by Susan Piggott and later William Haggas.
Mayson has always been close to my heart having carried in his racing days my former colours, now more realistically of David Armstrong. Raymond Tooth has bred a number of horses from him, notably Sod’s Law, but one Mayson in which he has a share was a breeze-up purchase last year by Shaun Keightley. Mayson Mount, owned in partnership by Ray and Clive Washbourn runs tonight at Kempton with decent chances of a first win.
Another much more famous Raymond Tooth-owned horse was Punjabi and his finest hour, winning the 2009 Champion Hurdle, was remembered again yesterday when Barry Geraghty, the man who rode him , announced his retirement at the age of 40.
After the epic victory over Celestial Halo and Binocular up the Cheltenham hill, Geraghty once described him as “the bravest horse I’ve ridden”. Whether in the manner of all things ephemeral in racing, that accolade was traded elsewhere about earlier and later triumphs in his 24-year career, no matter. We’ll take it.
Barry was always polite and professional, calm and powerful in a finish. He fitted neatly somewhere between his other contemporary fellow Irish-born greats, McCoy and Walsh in terms of strength and subtlety. Now all we have to admire of the four riding giants of this latest era is Richard Johnson and he is now in the unusual post-McCoy position of no longer being champion jockey.
It wasn’t all gloom for the Queen on the racetrack last week. Her home-bred colt Tactical followed up his Windsor Castle triumph at Royal Ascot by stepping up a furlong to win the July Stakes at Newmarket. Andrew Balding intends looking for Group 1 prizes now for the son of Toronado, with the Prix Morny as a likely first step.
Godolphin and Charlie Appleby have a very talented juvenile with Classic pretensions in the Superlative Stakes winner Master Of The Seas. In what looked an above-average renewal of the seven-furlong event, the son of Dubawi drew clear for a three-length verdict, and must rate right at the top among this year’s juvenile colts.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/jonathanbarnett.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-07-13 07:11:362020-07-13 07:58:54Monday Musings: No More Lockdown Barnett!
Five losers to start the week wasn't what we wanted/needed and July continues to be the chalk to June's cheese (I prefer cheese). Betting on racing is always a rollercoaster ride and good runs will allow follow bad ones and vice versa.
That said, Saturday's well fancied winner was a welcome relief as it broke a cycle of 10 losers and although I put him up at 5/2, which is pretty much as low as I'm comfortable with for SotD, he did prove that even at the sharper end of the market, you can get some value as those getting on at 5/2 got 167% of Industry SP, which is why we never back at SP!
So, despite being almost halfway through the month, the running loss for July is manageable and nothing that a couple of winners won't fix, so that's the immediate aim.
Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.
Chris
Selections & Results : 06/07/20 to 11/07/20
06/07 : Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 07/07 : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 08/07 : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1
09/07 : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8 10/07 : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
11/07 : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
06/07/20 to 11/07/20 : 1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts
July 2020 :
1 winner from 9 = 11.11% SR P/L: -5.50pts
ROI = -61.11%
2020 to date :
18 winners from 96 = 18.75% SR P/L: +7.50pts
ROI = +7.81%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
In late April when the first clamour for a resumption of racing was brewing up with, at the forefront, particular criticism of the BHA in the person of Nick Rust’s perceived failure to hurry the process along, there were still more than 5,500 UK weekly deaths from Covid-19, writes Tony Stafford.
By the time the announcement came that June 1 would be the witching hour, the figure was still above 2,500. Time and history will show that the starting date coincided with numbers in the 1600’s and by yesterday, over the last week, the fifth since racing resumed, the number was down to 680, barely ten per cent of the peak in early April. New daily infections, despite massively greater testing, were around only one-sixth of the peak figures.
The BHA, in conjunction with France, who started two weeks earlier, and Ireland, a week after us, has managed to salvage a great part of the Pattern. So in the short time since the resumption, we have seen the crowning of a true champion filly in the emphatic 1,000 Guineas and superlative Oaks heroine Love; the development from an occasional soft-Group bully into a fully grown-up superstar in Ghaiyyath, conqueror of Enable and Japan in the Coral-Eclipse; the confirmation of Stradivarius’ place in the pantheon of great stayers and so much more. A start any later than June 1 would have made all that impossible while any earlier would have been highly contentious.
I have a feeling that Love will be the Horse of the Year and I hear Ryan Moore believes she is better than Minding, her predecessor to a 2016 1,000 Guineas/Oaks double on the way to seven Group 1 wins in a career tally reading 9/3/1 from 13 starts. The common link of course is Galileo, also as if it were ever going to be in question, once again sire of the Investec Derby winner on Saturday, albeit not the most likely one, either by riding arrangement or betting prominence.
Five Galileo colts turned out in the 16-runner Derby line-up on Saturday, including the spectacular five-and-a-half length all-the-way winner Serpentine, and the other four were all in the seven-horse cluster from second to eighth, supplemented by two Andrew Balding runners, 50-1 second Khalifa Sat and the 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko, who was fourth. He, like all the other fancied runners, was never nearer at any time than the finish. English King, the mount of Frankie Dettori, also ended in that group, fifth after a tardy start from stall one, more in the manner of an unraced two-year-old than a race-hardened Classic contender.
You can bet that there will be much more to come from the other O’Brien/Coolmore team members in that respectful grouping as the season progresses.
Amhran Na Bhriann, a 66-1 shot, was, like the runner-up always nearest and clear of the remainder if never close enough to challenge the winner. Their more-fancied trio of Mogul, Russian Emperor and Vatican City, who filled sixth to eighth places will have plenty of opportunities as the season progresses.
Emmet McNamara’s ice-cool ride, a week after his near-miss on Tiger Moth in the Irish Derby shows that the riding talent on the gallops at Ballydoyle extends well into the support team.
This was a fifth Derby triumph for Galileo, himself one of the best winners of that race. Serpentine follows New Approach, Ruler Of the World, Australia and Anthony Van Dyck as the champion stallion’s quintet. The last four were trained by O’Brien, who with eight wins is now the leading trainer in all the 240-year history of the great race. Michael Tabor and Mrs Sue Magnier both appear in the partnerships of nine Derby winners, the most ever, a figure equalling the long-standing tally of Lester Piggott’s unique riding record.
If anyone had suggested to the East End-born former hairdresser and bookmaker that one day he would make history in this respect, he would have laughed. You’re not laughing now, Michael!
Actually, probably you are.
In his run before the Derby, Serpentine was still a maiden, something he corrected in very similar fashion to Saturday’s virtuoso show just six days before his great success. That statistic fuels the suggestion that ten- and 12-furlong maiden form in Ireland early in this truncated season is probably equivalent to UK Group 3 level at least. Such as Tiger Moth (Irish Derby second) and Ennistymon (Oaks third on Saturday), are among 19 winners for the sire back home since the resumption on June 8. In that time Group 1 wins for Magical, who seems sure soon to resume rivalry with Enable after their impressive respective returns to action, and Peaceful in the Irish 1,000, have been the domestic highlights.
The latter filly’s rider, Seamie Heffernan, her greatest admirer, might well have been in not quite the best frame of mind when partnering Peaceful to a close third in the Prix De Diane in Chantilly yesterday. In the first colours of Michael Tabor he was always struggling for room as Coronation Stakes winner Alpine Star set the pace from the Donnacha O’Brien-trained Fancy Blue, sporting the all-blue cap second colours of Mr Tabor.
Seamie had clearly forgotten the newly-installed French whip requirement of hitting a horse no more than five times. In the Prix Du Jockey-Club (French Derby) which preceded the Diane, he was found to have hit pace-setter Order Of Australia 11 times on his way to seventh place only four and a half lengths behind the winner Mishrif, trained by John Gosden for Prince AA Faisal.
In Ireland or the UK you could imagine a maximum few days for a similar effort but the French not only frown on numbers, they took the importance of the race (and presumably the greater likelihood of public sensibilities being offended) into account and came up with a number for the Heffernan misdemeanour, 22.
Given that Heffernan was already resigned to spending the first 14 days after fulfilling his trip to the Derby Days of the UK and France in quarantine back home, he will now be free to concentrate his efforts fully on the Ballydoyle gallops as he will be off the track until... August 9.
Blimey! Lockdown mark 2!
It’s not taking long for Donnacha, 21, to follow his equally precocious elder brother Joseph into adding Classic success as a trainer to Classic wins and championships as a jockey. His first turf winner as a trainer came only last week by which time Fancy Blue had already given him a placed runner when second to Peaceful in the Irish 1,000. Now, under former French champion Pierre Charles- Boudot, the same filly raced just ahead rather than a few lengths behind her rival and did well to hold Arctic Star and Peaceful in a tight finish.
In the UK since the resumption there have been fewer Galileo victories, 11 in all since June 1, but four of these, two for Love, one for Septentine, and also Circus Maximus in Ascot’s Queen Anne Stakes have been at Group 1 level, and two more at Group 3 for Russian Emperor and Nayef Road. Four of the other five have been in handicaps, three of them for a modestly-rated horse who also started out under the Coolmore banner.
Until this year the seven-year-old Le Musee was regarded as a decent chaser with a 147 rating. His last run before racing’s resumption was at the Cheltenham Festival where he finished 13th of 23 in the Kim Muir having won twice in the previous summer.
Nigel Hawke is his trainer and the West Countryman has for many years been highly-respected as a jumps handler with successive tallies over the past seven seasons of 19, 19, 11, 28, 17, 16 and 17. Contrastingly, before this year from a total of 76 runners on the Flat over 23 years he didn’t send out a single winner.
Then In January, between runs at 100-1 at Newbury and latterly in that Kim Muir, he decided to try Le Musee on the Flat, and he was rewarded with his and the horse’s joint first Flat-race success at Southwell in January.
When he originally showed up for sale in France as a yearling, Le Musee was bought by Coolmore for Euro 300,000 and was sent to be trained by Andre Fabre. Unraced at two, he finished a 20-length sixth in the Tabor colours on his sole three-year-old start in a March Compiegne maiden. His next outing was at the Arqana summer sales where Hawke picked him up for Euro 3,000.
He took his time, gelding him the following October and before making the track Le Musee had a wind operation in July 2017. His first start for Hawke was as a five-year-old over hurdles and he proved quite useful, winning twice. By the time he shipped up at Cheltenham this spring he was having his 24th run for the stable within 26 months, a compliment to the trainer’s skills at keeping fit and well a gelding that had proved hard to train for the redoubtable M. Fabre.
Already a winner on the Flat, post-lockdown Hawke decided to exploit his gelding’s great stamina and also a highly-tempting handicap mark in the 60’s. This was more than 80lb lower than the jumps figure and therefore potentially a stone or two too low. In the past five weeks Le Musee has gone to the track three times and won them all, first at Newcastle and then twice at Chepstow. Judged on the economical way he races, just getting up late, more success should follow.
It seems only poetic justice for Hawke who must have spent the last seven years regretting his actions over another bargain sales recruit who stayed in his care only long enough to make a winning debut in a juvenile hurdle. That horse was a son of another Derby winner, Authorised, out of a mare by Mrs Magnier’s and Michael Tabor’s Entrepreneur, winner of the 2,000 Guineas and beaten odds-on favourite for the 1997 Derby.
Unraced for Sheikh Mohammed, Tiger Roll cost the princely sum of 10,000gns from the Darley consignment at Doncaster sales in August of his three-year--old season. On debut at Market Rasen in early November he won easily at 12-1 and if they got a few bob there, another £80k came into the coffers of his owners when Mags O’Toole paid £80,000 for him at Brightwells sale at Cheltenham racecourse the following month.
Within three-months Gordon Elliott had produced the gelding to win the Triumph Hurdle on his way to more than £1.3 million in prizes, two Grand Nationals, four Festival wins and greater national fame than Love, Serpentine or even Enable will earn in their careers. Nigel Hawke deserved to get one back after that. It’s nice that a Coolmore reject should have persuaded him that he can indeed train Flat horses.
For most ordinary owners, picking up crumbs from the rich man’s table is often the only realistic route to racing success. There are three days of breeze ups and Horses in Training on offer at Tattersall’s in Newmarket from Wednesday and in this strange year of all years there will undoubtedly be some cast-offs with more than a little potential for the shrewdies to unearth. Good luck!
-TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/serpentine_Derby.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-07-06 09:57:482020-07-06 10:37:36Monday Musings: Serpentine Tributary to Sea of Galileo
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...
Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.
14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.
Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...
11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle
...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-07-06 07:17:462020-07-06 07:55:00Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020
Five losers and a runner who wouldn't enter the stalls from six picks doesn't look great, does it? But that was the story of last week and you might be surprised to hear that only my wallet is hurting as a result.
I'm still generally happy with what we got for our money. Unlucky possibly on Monday, going down by a length and then by just a head on Friday. Saturday's runner wouldn't enter the stalls, whereas on Tuesday there were no stalls and from a standing start, we'd lost before we even began in farcicial conditions.
Midweek was poor, with two well beaten runners, but when backing runners at 7/1 and the like, you can go a while between drinks.
So, I'm not too despondent. : June was great and I just need July to start firing and the world will seem a better place.
Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.
Chris
Selections & Results : 29/06/20 to 04/07/20
29/06 : Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 30/06 : Chetan @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 11/10 01/07 : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1
02/07 : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 03/07 : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
04/07 : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner
29/06/20 to 04/07/20 : 0 winning bets from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts
June 2020 :
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR P/L: +27.17pts
ROI = +104.50%
July 2020 :
0 winners from 3 = 0.00% SR P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -100.00%
2020 to date :
17 winners from 90 = 18.89% SR P/L: +10.00pts
ROI = +11.11%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/sotd-updates.jpg320830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-07-05 20:44:062020-07-12 09:13:10SotD Update, 29th June to 4th July 2020
In previous articles we have covered the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Wisdom of the Crowd, and how these theories help us identify opportunities that have a positive Expected Value (EV+), writes Russell Clarke. Our task as punters is to try and limit our individual bets to those that have an EV+.
We can do this by opening new accounts with bookmakers when they are offering EV+ bets as an opening offer. We can do this by taking advantage of reload/ongoing offers from bookmakers. We can also hunt for EV+ Price Boosts. We can bet each-way in races where the fractions and extra places are in our favour. And, we must always take the best prices available and utilise Best Odds Guaranteed where possible.
In addition, we have identified the ‘sweet spot’ in terms of when to place our bets, which is when BOG is available, margins are not too severe, and there is a degree of liquidity in the market.
Finally, we have recognised and prepared ourselves for the variance that occurs even within a large series of EV+ bets. Psychologically we are prepared for adverse sequences and this knowledge gives us the confidence to carry a plan through.
That's all great in theory, but what about the practice?
Every individual will have a preference for how they like to bet and a tolerance for risk/reward. What follows is a framework that readers may elect to build upon and adapt to suit their own style and situation.
1 Take Advantage of Opening Offers… Smartly!
To keep up to date on such offers matched betting sites are useful. Most charge a subscription but there are free sites on social media (try searching Matched Betting on Facebook).
There are scores of bookmakers and each can be seen as a potential profit centre. You should try and wait for the most generous offers. These will often be prior to major sporting events, but can be at any time.
The ultimate goal is to open accounts with all of them. This will give you maximum profits from the opening offers but also keep your options open for the other concessions.
2 Keep abreast of reload/ongoing offers and weekly bet clubs (as these are essentially ‘free’ bets)
Again, the Matched Betting sites are useful for these. The largest one on facebook seems very busy and people post the latest offers and experiences.
3 Resolve only to bet in EV+ situations
Potential bets should be either the majority of the below or a combination of at least two or more of:
- Price Boost
- Enhanced Place each-way
- Best Odds Guaranteed
- Best price available
- Opening Offer
- Ongoing Offers (free bets)
4 Always be on the lookout for Multiples
If you find two EV+ bets with the same bookmaker, then placing a double simply multiplies your EV. For example, if you have two horses and one represents an EV of 1.15 and the other 1.20, then the double has an EV of 1.38. The same calculation can be done for trebles and above. Clearly the strike-rate falls with this type of bet, but the EV+ is enhanced.
5 Accept ‘variance’ for what it is, and stick as closely to these rules as you can for the vast majority of your bets
I hope you have enjoyed this series of articles and picked up at least a small amount of knowledge that will enhance profits or at least reduce losses. The closer you stick to these rules, the more you will have shifted the mathematics in your favour.
And we've achieved all of this without even touching upon any selection methods!
That is for another series, perhaps "Using Geegeez to Unearth EV+"… Matt?!
- RC
In case you missed any of this brilliant series, below is a recap of the previous seven chapters:
It is perhaps the greatest paradox in the investment world that many consistently profitable money managers have a large percentage of losing clients, writes Russell Clarke. I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the fund! This was a fund that had a relatively consistent record of double digit annual gains over decades. This rather odd story is by no means an isolated incident, it is repeated within many successful funds.
So, what causes this phenomenon? Bad timing and illogical emotion probably covers the answer. It is human nature to be tempted to buy into an investment when it is doing well and sell when doing badly. Jack Schwager in his cult classic, Market Wizards, sums up “the common dual tendency of many people to initiate an account after a manager has already had a large winning streak and to liquidate in the midst of a drawdown is the single biggest blunder investors make”. Clearly, if the path to riches was as simple as to just invest in a fund that was currently outperforming, we would all be rich.
The Turtles Story
In 1984 a man called Richard Dennis had a wager with his financial trading partner, William Eckhardt, that he could train a selected number of people (later to be termed The Turtles) to trade profitably in the financial marketplace, with no prior financial trading experience. It was a classic Nature v Nurture experiment. Over a thousand people responded to simple classified advertisements placed in The International Herald Tribune, Barrons and The Wall Street Journal. From these, around 40 were interviewed and a dozen or so were initially chosen.
The Turtles were given just two weeks training and were then allowed to trade with real money, strictly following the relatively simple systems and rules taught them by Dennis and Eckhardt. This story is almost folklore in financial circles, albeit a little cultish. The systems they were taught were simple and took up very little of each day. They traded at simple desks in a non-descript office where the most used piece of equipment was a ping-pong table!
The Turtles were “trend-following” traders. Trend followers wait for a market to move and then follow it. The aim is to capture the majority of a trend, either up or down. The doyen of trend followers was Richard Donchian; as far back as 1960, he encapsulated the philosophy into a brief rule, “When the price moves above the high of the previous two weeks, cover your short positions and buy. When the price breaks below the low of the two previous weeks, liquidate your long position and sell short.”
The Turtles themselves entered markets on breakouts. For example, if a contract made a 55 day breakout (i.e. higher than at any time in the past 55 days), it was a buy. Similarly, if it broke to the downside they would sell. They were buying rising markets and selling falling markets….the age old wisdom of “buy low and sell high” turned on its head! The Turtles also used a shorter term breakout system that operated over 20 days. Each turtle was allowed to use either system, or both, or any combination of the two.
In terms of staking, the Turtles were taught about risk management and how much to risk on each trade. This was done by calculating the daily volatility in each market. Again it was a relatively simple calculation. Given this, it is perhaps surprising to note the differences in returns made in that first year by the Turtles. Jim Melnick produced an outstanding +102% in 1984, wheras Liz Cheval managed a loss of -21% over that same initial 12 month period. The same methodology brought very different results with cognitive behaviour and biases playing a major role.
The story itself is a fascinating one and I cannot do it justice in such a short article, but the result was that Dennis was proven correct as a number of the Turtles went on to take their place among the most successful traders on Wall Street over the following three decades.
Turtles and Betting
How does this relate to betting? As a boy, I was both fascinated and perplexed, in equal proportions, by The Sporting Life Naps Table. Each year less than 20% of the full-time racing journalists in the competition ever managed a level stake profit, and every year it was a different 20%! Their results looked completely random. The conclusion that screamed at me was that fundamental/subjective analysis of form (as practised by virtually every racing journalist) was very difficult to profit from, and individuals, over a lengthy period of time, are just not suited to profiting from their own opinion. To be entirely fair, they were also presenting their tips without any knowledge of the price of the horses they were selecting.
Given this, why is fundamental/subjective analysis of form, going, distance, trainers, so popular? Because most people know no other way? Because we need to feed our ego (my opinion is superior to your opinion)? Because it seems the most logical thing to do? Probably it is a mixture of these reasons and maybe others that I have not considered.
Returning to the financial world where information is available 24/7 and is far more public than in sports betting, I researched the published results of the most successful funds. To eradicate luck and optimisation, I looked for exceptional performance over a lengthy period of time. I chose 20 years to cover bull and bear markets and a myriad of economic conditions. I settled on 20%+ pa average returns over the 20 years. Unsurprisingly, with the bar set so high, only seven funds qualified.
Of these seven funds, four are systematic investing funds. The definition of systematic would be “rule-based trading”. One of the others (Paul Jones' Tudor) certainly uses a systematic approach, even if it is not strictly rule-based. And, of course, Berkshire Hathaway is the investment vehicle of Warren Buffet! That more than half of this most exclusive league table is made up of systematic investing funds is even more remarkable when you know that less than 1% of all funds available worldwide operate on a systematic basis.
So, why does an objective approach achieve superior results to a subjective one? The major reason is Psychology. The brain is not the rational, calculating machine that we like to believe. Over its evolution it has developed many shortcuts, biases and downright bad habits. Some of these would have helped early humans (fight or flight), but they create problems for us today. In addition, some of the brain’s flaws may result from socialisation rather than instinct. As a result of both nature and nurture, the brain can be a deceptive guide for rational decision making.
The brain’s inadequacies have been rigorously studied by social scientists. In the world of economics and investment, behavioural economists question the basic assumption of human beings as rational decision makers. They are correct to do so because the evidence is overwhelming. The insights presented here, primarily from the world of finance, are equally relevant to sports betting. Investments are no more than bets on the financial markets and sports bettors can learn plenty from the more sophisticated financial world.
"Overconfidence killed the caterpillar"
Our brains are programmed to make us feel overconfident. This has been tested in numerous studies. For example, people were asked to guess the weight of a London double decker bus; but, rather than a precise figure, give a range within which they were 90% confident they had the correct answer. Time and again, they fell into the trap of quoting too narrow a range and thus missing the correct answer. Most of us are unwilling to reveal our ignorance by specifying a very wide range.
We prefer to be precisely wrong than vaguely correct.
Overconfidence in our own abilities spills over into over-optimism. This can have dangerous consequences when developing strategies, as these are based on what may happen and, too often, are unrealistically precise and over-optimistic estimates of the uncertainties.
Mental Accounting
This term was first coined by a pioneer of behavioural economics called Richard Thaler. He defined Mental Accounting as “the inclination to categorise and treat money differently, depending on where it comes from, where it is kept, and how it is spent.” For example, a gambler who loses his winnings, typically feels he hasn’t really lost anything, despite the fact he would have been richer had he stopped when he was ahead. This can cause problems such as erratic staking.
Status Quo Bias
Nothing to do with Francis or Rick! In a classic experiment conducted by Samuelson and Zeckhouser, students were given a hypothetical inheritance. Some were given the inheritance in the form of a low risk profile portfolio, others were given it in the form of a high risk profile portfolio. Both sets showed a reluctance to change the allocation. The rational choice would have been to re-balance the portfolios, but the students largely chose not to change. The fear of changing comes from aversion to loss.
A similar bias is the Endowment Effect, which is an irrational desire to hang on to what you own. To demonstrate this, Thaler gave students a mug emblazoned with their University Logo. On average, the students demanded $5.25 before they would sell. However, students without the mug were only willing to pay $2.75 to acquire one.
Both the Status Quo Bias and the Endowment Effect make for poor decision making.
Anchoring
A well known bias. Present the brain with a number and ask it to make an estimate of something completely unrelated, the estimate will be anchored by the original number.
A classic example of this is when two groups were asked at what age Ghandi died. The first group were asked if he died before or after age nine and the second group were asked if he died before or after age 140. Both examples were obviously wrong, but, the anchor effect made the first group guess an average age of 50 and the second group an average age of 67.
Anchoring can be seen in price negotiations (buyer starts low, seller starts high), or advertising a retail price. Fund managers advertise past performance, and, despite the fact that there is very little correlation between past performance and future performance, it is anchored in the consumer's mind.
Related to Anchoring is the need for really statistically robust numbers for predicting the future. A great example is Equities. Anyone looking at the 1980’s and 1990’s would have a double digit per annum return firmly anchored. But the noughties brought a negative return! And the 60’s and 70’s returned a miserable 2% per annum. Double digit returns have been achieved in only four of the past 13 decades. So beware of a mere 20 year track record!!
Sunk Cost
Otherwise known as “throwing good money after bad”. Why do we do it? Loss aversion is the broad answer and the current trend for “kicking the can down the road” by the governments of the world is a classic example. Bailing out countries such as Greece (that can never repay their debts) is deemed preferable to accepting the inevitable loss today.
On a more personal level, you buy shares in ABC for £1, but the price falls to 70p….do you accept the loss? For most people, the answer is “no”. Indeed, Anchoring kicks in (i.e. you may sell if the price recovered to £1, despite the fact at £1 you originally felt the share was a buy).
Herding Instinct
The desire to conform to the opinions and behaviour of others is a fundamental human trait and an accepted principle of psychology. We don’t mind being wrong, if everyone else is also wrong! To quote Warren Buffet, “as a group, lemmings may have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press”.
For punters, the herding instinct is difficult to resist. Give yourself half a chance, and stop reading the Racing Post! [Read geegeez.co.uk instead! - Ed.]
False Consensus
The tendency to over-estimate the extent to which others share your views or beliefs. This happens for a number of reasons, including:
- Confirmation Bias is the tendency to seek out opinions and facts that support your own beliefs (readership of newspapers with a certain political bias is a good example, the twitter accounts you follow perhaps another).
- Selective Recall is the habit of only remembering facts and experiences that reinforce our assumptions or beliefs.
- Biased Evaluation is the quick acceptance of evidence that supports your own hypothesis, whilst reserving rigorous analysis for any contrary opinion. And, finally...
- Groupthink is the pressure to agree with others in team-based cultures.
False Consensus is a very dangerous psychological trait in either financial investments or in betting.
An awareness of the brain's flaws and psychological traits can be a major factor when attempting to be successful in any form of investment/betting. The human brain itself makes it unsuitable as a primary tool for financial analysis. Therefore attempting to profit from betting using a subjective approach, whilst emotionally satisfying when proven correct, is fraught with dangers and difficulties that can be potentially circumvented if one adopts and maintains a 100% objective, rule-based approach.
I realise that here at Geegeez the majority will follow a hybrid of objective and subjective methods for bet selection. The purpose of these articles is not to change your approach. Rather, it is to highlight mathematically optimal situations in which to bet (either objectively or subjectively). This particular article is designed to highlight some of the more common psychological ‘traps’ that can scupper even the most advantageous EV+ strategy. They are especially problematic when variance takes a turn for the worse!
For this article we are back across the border to analyse draw and pace data from Musselburgh racecourse, writes Dave Renham. To help me with this piece I have used some of the tools available on the Geegeez website, those being the Draw Analyser, the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool.
I will be looking at race data going back to 2009 as my starting point but, as before, I will examine a more recent data set in detail, too (2015 to 2019), where appropriate. The focusas with all the other articles in the series, is on handicap races with eight or more runners.
Musselburgh Course Constitution
Musselburgh is a right-handed course roughly ten furlongs in circumference, with no notable gradients, and is generally considered to be fair. The 5f sprint trip is raced on a straight track while 7f races and above take place on the round course. (There are no 6f races).
Musselburgh 5f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
Since 2009 there have been 218 qualifying races over the past 11 seasons, a significant sample, and here are the draw splits:
The general perception I think is that horses drawn next to the stands’ rail (high) have an advantage. There is a kink in the straight track after two furlongs and, in theory, that should aid those runners drawn high. However, the stats for 8+ runner handicaps do not especially back that up, such horses winning only as much as middle draws, and neither group performing distinctly better than low starting stalls. Now a look at the A/E values:
Middle draws seem to offer better value than higher draws despite their similar win percentages. This does imply, albeit only slightly, that maybe higher draws are slightly overbet due to the perception of draw bias.
However, when the field size increases a slight bias does start to appear. In handicap races of 11 or runners (90 races) we get the following splits:
Thus, in bigger fields, horses drawn out wider (lower stall numbers) definitely start to struggle. The A/E values back this up too.
Again middle draws offer the best value out of the three draw thirds.
Ground conditions do not appear to make any difference to the draw so let us move on to to looking at each draw position broken down by individual stall number.
For this distance I have needed to change the way I collate the data. The reason for this is that the higher draws are positioned next to the rail so in many respects analysing individual stall positions in the ‘normal’ way becomes irrelevant. What I mean by this is, that stall 8 could be drawn next to the rail (in an 8-runner race), but in a 17-runner race stall 8 is actually ten stalls away from the rail. Hence I am using a trick that Nick Mordin used many years ago in his book Betting For Living when he flipped the draw. I am reversing the draw figures if you like and looking at them in their relation to their position near to the stands’ rail. I still used the Geegeez Query Tool to give me the relevant data, but it took me more time to adjust and sort out the final figures:
These stats indicate there may be a slight stands’ rail bias as horses drawn 2, 3 or 5 stalls from the rail are all in profit. Also the each way percentages for those drawn within five of the rail are all over 30%. Having said that, it is not something that one could be too confident about. What I would be more confident in is that horses drawn ten berths or wider from the stands’ rail look at a disadvantage. This correlates with the 11+ runner draw splits mentioned earlier.
Onto a more recent data set looking at the past five seasons (2015-2019). Here are the draw splits for the 100 races that have occurred during this time frame.
No surprises here with an even looking split.
The A/E values correlate with long term figures shared earlier:
Again middle draws have offered the best value.
Time for the 5 year stats for individual draw positions with the same twist as discussed earlier (draw positions effectively reversed):
The slight rail bias that was mooted earlier is not displayed with this more recent data set. However, as you would have probably expected the stats indicate that horses drawn ten or further from the stands’ rail remain at a clear disadvantage.
Musselburgh 5f Pace Bias (8+ Runner Handicaps)
Let us look at pace and running styles now. The overall figures (2009-19) are thus:
As is often the case, front runners enjoy a decent edge – as 5f biases go it is around the overall UK course average. Hold up horses have a poor record and look best avoided unless the pace is likely to be frenetic.
The front running bias does seem to strengthen slightly the firmer the going. The stats for qualifying races on going described as good to firm or firmer is as follows:
Improvements in strike rate, A/E value and IV; also the each way placed percentage increases too.
In terms of field size there is no clear change in front running bias.
Finally in this five furlong section a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners over this minimum distance. Remember this is looking at which third of the draw is responsible for the early leader of the race (in % terms):
Higher draws get the lead more often than any other third. You would expect this as they are drawn closest to the rail. I must admit that I had expected the high draw percentage to be a bit nearer to 50%.
The draw/run style heat map, sorted by Percentage of Rivals Beaten, again points to early leaders from a pace perspective and middle to high from a draw perspective. (Any score above 0.55 implies a bias to that section, below 0.45 a bias against that section).
To conclude, in terms of the draw, higher draws are at a disadvantage as the field size gets bigger, with draws ten or further away from the rail having a particularly poor record. Pace wise, front runners have the edge and this seems to strengthen on firmer ground.
Musselburgh 7f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
As mentioned, there are no six furlong races at Musselburgh, so the next distance we'll review takes in the round course and the seven furlong (seven-eighths of a mile) range. The 7 furlong trip has had 189 qualifying races from 2009 to 2019 which is another decent sample. Here are the draw splits:
The 7f trip sees low draws start closest to the inside rail. However, this does not appear to give them any concrete advantage.
Let’s look at the A/E values to see if they correlate with the draw percentages:
Similar A/E values offering no real edge.
Drilling into the stats when the going gets softer there is a suggestion that low draws have an advantage. The problem is that there have only been 19 races on soft or heavy ground. Having said that, 12 races have been won by low-drawn runners compared with just two for higher-drawn horses. The placed stats strongly favour lower draws, too, under such conditions, but 19 races is far too small a sample to take at face value.
Time to look at what the individual draw positions offer over the 11-year period between ’09 and ’19. We can view these in the normal way:
Nothing particularly significant here as one might expect looking at the other draw data. However, draws 1 and 2 clearly have the best placed strike rates which is interesting.
On that theme you could have made a 36 point profit backing the two lowest draws in one point reverse forecasts over the 189 races. There were enough winning bets to create a small profit. For tricast fans, perming the three lowest draws in full cover tricasts would have yielded a huge profit of just under 3600 points! There were only five winning tricasts, though, and the profit basically relied on one monster payout.
Onto the last five seasons for 7f handicaps at Musselburgh. There have been 94 qualifying races since 2015, with the draw splits as follows:
These are similar figures to the longer term ones. Higher draws have performed slightly worse in the last five years but it is likely not statistically significant.
Onto the A/E values (2015-2019):
Middle draws have been the best value of the three draw thirds in the last five seasons. However, there is no edge to really take advantage of.
Now a look at the individual draw figures for this latest 5-year period:
Again nothing clear cut and ultimately 7f races offer little interest for the draw punter (despite those aforementioned forecast and tricast figures). The PRB3 data - a rolling three-stall average of percentage of rivals beaten - suggests that the course constitution does slightly favour inner-drawn horses, though this has so far yet to manifest itself in bottom line profit. Nevertheless, it is worth being aware of.
I will be looking closely at any future races on softer ground, though, as it is possible that there could be a low bias under those conditions. Here is the same view, but on soft or heavy going:
Moving on the seven-furlong handicap pace data, here are the overall pace figures going back to 2009:
This makes much better reading and front runners have a very strong edge, even more so than over 5f. More recent data offers a similar picture so this is a bias that we must try and use to our advantage.
This front running edge looks to be stronger as the ground starts to soften. On good to soft or softer there have been 47 races giving the following splits:
There also seems to be a slight increase in front running bias when the field size grows. In races of 11 or more runners, front runners win 21% of the time with an A/E value of 1.85; in races of 8 to 10 runners the strike rate is still 21% but the A/E value drops to 1.50. It should be noted that mathematically it is harder to win in bigger fields so even though both win percentages are at 21%, it is clear that in effect front runners have been more successful in bigger field races.
Let us now look at the draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners over 7f.
Lower drawn horses get to the early lead more often – they are positioned closest to the inside rail so this is what we should expect. Having said that I would have expected a higher figure than 40%.
The draw / run style heat map offers a perfect diffusion of green to dark orange when viewed on PRB; this is normally a strong indication of a repeatable bias:
To conclude, over 7f the draw in general is extremely fair, but possibly lower draws have an edge in soft or heavy conditions. Pace wise, however, front runners have a bankable edge in all conditions which seems to increase on good to soft or softer going.
Musselburgh 1 Mile Pace Bias (8+ Runner Handicaps)
I will start our mile handicap analysis by looking at the 2009-2019 data - 90 races during this period have given the following draw splits:
There is no clear draw bias looking at these stats, but when you break the data down into halves, the bottom half of the draw won 61.1% of races to the top half figure of 38.9%. Hence a slightly lower draw seems preferable.
Let us break the mile draw data down by stall position:
Draws 1 and 2 both have decent A/E values and, breaking the data down further, stalls 1 to 4 have been 2.1 times more likely to win than draws 10 or higher (A/E values of 0.93 versus 0.66). Hence taking all things into account a lower draw seems preferable over a very high one, as reflected in the below IV3* chart:
*more information on IV3, and all of our metrics, can be found here.
The last five seasons have seen a fairly even split draw wise when splitting into thirds; draws 10 or higher have continued to struggle winning just twice from 37 runners. A look now at the pace findings for this 1 mile trip going back to 2009:
As with the two shorter distances, front runners have a definite advantage over a mile. This is one of the strongest mile pace biases in the country and it should also be noted that exactly half of all front runners went onto finish in the first three. Horses held up at the back early do not have a good record once again. The bias is consistent across all going and field sizes, although you could argue that in smaller fields (8-9 runners) it has been slightly less potent.
Finally in this section a look at which part of the draw gets to the lead first:
Although lower draws are positioned next to the rail, they do not get to the lead the most. This is probably due to the fact that there is nearly 4 furlongs until the first (and only) turn and wider drawn jockeys are keen to get a more expedient trip.
Again, we can see the golden triangle when looking at draw / run style in concert, though this time it more a 'led' bias, with a mark up for low drawn prominent and midfield (ground saving) racers.
As with 5f and 7f handicaps, over one mile the front running pace bias offers the most interest and it is a strong one. Draw wise I would always prefer lower draws over higher but all in all I don’t perceive it to be a significant factor.
Musselburgh 1 Mile 1 Furlong Pace Bias (8+ Runner Handicaps)
There have been only 44 qualifying races at this distance but some interesting findings:
Higher draws seem to have an edge and the A/E values strongly correlate:
My concern with these figures is that they are not easy to explain – if low draws had this advantage I would assume there was an inside rail bias; with higher draws having the edge it makes virtually no sense. The most likely scenario is simply down to variance as the sample size is not that big in reality. However, it may be that jockeys are able to play more of a waiting game by dropping high-drawn horses in at the back of the pack. All may be revealed shortly!
Let’s break the data down by individual draws to see if that helps:
It is difficult to make much of this either – the unusually good stats for stall eight reinforces my belief that the draw splits cannot be relied upon.
Onto pace now, and below is performance by run style.
Once again at Musselburgh we have a decent front running bias and hold up horses have an even worse record than the three shorter distances, so bang goes that theory about why wide-drawn horses have fared best!
This is surprising as normally the longer the distance, the harder it is for early leaders to make all the running; likewise longer distances normally see a much higher percentage of wins for hold up horses.
To conclude, there is a strong pace bias for the fourth consecutive distance over 1m1f. The draw stats suggest a high draw bias; but, as stated earlier, I am struggling to rationalise this in the overall context, even though the PRB data support the win and place tables above. Weird!
Musselburgh 1 Mile 4 Furlong Pace Bias (8+ Runner Handicaps)
This is the longest distance I have looked at in any of the articles but I would like to share one set of stats. The draw is fairly even and, over 12 furlongs where they start just before the winning post and make a full loop of the track, I do not feel it is worth going into too much detail.
But pace wise we continue to see that front running edge, even over this relatively long trip. Here are the 2009-2019 stats, taken from the geegeez Pace Analyser:
The figures suggest that this may be the distance where the front running edge is at its strongest. This is very surprising given the distance we are talking about. Maybe it is down to the fact there is additional sharp bend soon after the start at 1m4f and front runners get more of an advantage going the shortest route into that turn.
Musselburgh Draw and Pace Bias Summary
Although there is little out of the ordinary in draw terms, Musselburgh is a course of real interest when viewed from a pace angle. Looking for potential front runners at all distances from 5f to 1m4f is definitely a strategy worth considering. The draw is generally not a major factor but there are subtleties that one needs to be aware of.
Thanks, as always, for reading, and good luck!
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/MusselburghRacecourse.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2020-06-29 09:01:292020-06-29 09:01:29Musselburgh Draw & Pace Bias
Almost a month in from the resumption of racing, today we await the publication of the names of the horses that will comprise the first-ever five-day entry for the Derby, writes Tony Stafford.
Historically a race which closed long before any of its eventual protagonists had even flexed their muscles on a racecourse, this year owing to Covid-19 the original entry stage structure had to be scrapped.
Many years ago, changes of ownership after entry meant horses were barred from running in the race and, famously, the death of one giant of the industry, owner-breeder Major Lionel B Holliday, meant that his colt Vaguely Noble was ineligible for the 1968 Epsom Classic.
The seven-length winner of the Observer Gold Cup (now Vertem Futurity), a month earlier Holliday’s son Brook, realising this issue, had entered him for auction at Tattersalls where he was sold for a record 136,000gns. Switched to race in France as a three-year-old, eventually running in the colours of Nelson Bunker Hunt, in the care of the great Etienne Pollet, Vaguely Noble proved himself the undisputed champion of his generation.
Sir Ivor had been favourite for the 1968 Derby and the Vincent O’Brien-trained and Raymond Guest-owned colt exuded class and speed when he easily cut down the raw Connaught, trained by Noel Murless in the last furlong at Epsom. Sir Ivor went on to Longchamp but was no match for Vaguely Noble who was his equal him for speed but had much the greater stamina.
Less than a generation after Vaguely Noble, buying Epsom contenders after they had shown their mettle in the trials had become commonplace, and one man constantly on the look-out for potential Classic horses was the Italian industrialist Antonio Balzarini. In May 1988 he bought Carroll House from his original owner-breeder, Gerald Carroll, after he had finished a close second in the 1988 Italian Derby.
Balzarini wisely left the colt with Michael Jarvis, his original trainer, and was rewarded in November the following year when Carroll House won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. A sale to stand in the Yoshida family’s Shadai Farm in Hokkaido, Japan, soon followed.
Jarvis had also trained the owner’s Prorutori to win the Italian Derby the same year. Balzarini, through my Daily Telegraph colleague and long-time friend George Hill during that period did the deal, acquiring the filly Atoll from Robert Sangster. She won the 1990 Italian Oaks and was the neck runner-up to Knight’s Baroness in that year’s Irish Oaks.
Two years later, Balzarini was impressed by the Lingfield Derby Trial victory of Assessor, a staying-bred colt trained by Richard Hannon for Bjorn Nielsen who 28 years further down the road, will be hoping that his own life-long love affair with the Derby might be finally realised on Saturday through the favourite English King, also the Lingfield Derby Trial winner.
I had got to know Bjorn Nielsen as a racecourse acquaintance a few years before that, and I am indebted to Alastair Down for today’s Racing Post profile of the owner to fill in some forgotten details. As Down relates, Nielsen was born and raised in South Africa – to Swedish parents. The family moved to Australia where he developed his love of racing and pedigrees, before they came to live in Epsom in Bjorn’s teenage years. Talent on the tennis court brought a sports scholarship to the United States, excelling on the highly-competitive college circuit. A lucrative career as a trader in the metal exchanges followed, eventually founding his own company, which funded his racing and breeding exploits.
George Hill knew I often saw Bjorn on the racecourse and, seconds after Assessor won, he called me and passed on a bid from Mr Balzarini. At the time I did not believe he could win what was going to be a good Derby, so fully expected the offer of £1 million to be enough to sway the colt’s owner. After a short period of balancing the pros and cons, he told me: “No, thank him for the offer, but I grew up in Epsom and I can’t pass up the chance of winning the Derby”.
I remember seeing Bjorn and his family in the owners’ dining room before the race. I was there, obviously in my journalistic role, but also as a friend and supporter of Mrs Virgina Kraft Payson, owner of St Jovite, trained by Jim Bolger to whom I had introduced her. He ran a great race finishing second to Dr Devious, trained at Robert Sangster’s Manton stables by the young Peter Chapple-Hyam.
St Jovite turned the form around in the Irish Derby, winning by 12 lengths in record time at The Curragh, but then, having won the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes by an unchallenged six lengths, was pipped by Dr Devious in the Irish Champion.
Over the next few years I made numerous calls to the New York office of Mr Nielsen, always being reminded by his secretary that my voice was uncannily like that of the English-born journalist Robin Leach, who had made his fame and fortune in Las Vegas fronting and producing the television programme, Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous.
Then in October 1995 I stayed for a few days at Mrs Payson’s house on Long Island, and arranged to meet Bjorn at his office on Wall Street. After making my acquaintance with his secretary who repeated my inner-London vocal exactness with the Perivale-born Mr Leach, we went out to a deli for a six-inch thick beef sandwich after which I was advised to catch the race special to Belmont Park.
Arriving at Grand Central station, I found I was too late for that service, having to abort at Jamaica station where I was told a taxi could be found. Apparently my driver, the only one available, had recently arrived in the City and his lack of local knowledge, and the general direction of Belmont Park was only exceeded by his non-grasp of the English language.
After asking “Balma?” a couple of times; on seeing a green expanse on the left side he pointed and said “park!” Luckily we soon arrived at a bus stop where a queue of around 15 women waited. I asked him to stop, rolled down the window and called out: “Does anyone know the way to Belmont Park?” One lady said she did and offered to join me to help direct the driver towards the destination.
She said that her son Joe was in the racing business: “He works for Godolphin in Dubai”. I apologise to the kind lady who did indeed put us right for Belmont for not remembering her surname. She had been among a crowd of 75,000 people attending a blessing by Pope John Paul II at Acqueduct racecourse that morning.
I told her that my son had been based in Dubai the previous winter and I can exactly pinpoint the date of his departure for a six-month stint in Sheikh Mohammed’s sports club coaching his young kids in various sports. It was Saturday November 19th 1994, the date when the National Lottery was launched. He was based in the same apartment complex with Vince (now Victoria) Smith and Johnny Murtagh and the trio played plenty of cricket together while he was over there. Joe, I discovered when I checked later with my son, had also been staying in the same block. Papal intervention indeed!
Bjorn Nielsen’s study of pedigrees has famously produced one of the greatest stayers of any generation, one to stand comparison with Ardross, Le Moss, Sagaro and Yeats. If there’s ever been a better example of the speed that is still required for a champion stayer, you would struggle to improve on the latest of his three Gold Cup wins at Ascot.
Now Nielsen is relying on his €210,000 Arqana sales purchase to fulfil that Epsom ambition. By a Derby winner, Camelot, who just missed out on the Triple Crown, himself a son of French and Irish Derby winner Montjeu, he has more than enough genetic quality for the job. His Derby Trial triumph was much more obviously compelling than Assessor’s all those years ago. Assessor, for his part, raced on until six years of age, winning good staying races, later becoming a successful jumping stallion.
It must have been more than a little disconcerting for the English King team and the rest when Aidan O’Brien suggested after Santiago’s Irish Derby win on Saturday that it was not impossible that one or more of his runners, which included the first four home in that race, might be joining his already formidable Derby squad, headed by Russian Emperor, if they make the right signals on the gallops this morning.
I would be especially wary if he comes across with the neck runner-up, Tiger Moth. In only the third race of his life he stayed on so well in the last furlong that it momentarily looked as though Emmet McNamara might be following Padraig Beggy as a second consecutive unlikely winner of the Irish Classic. By the inevitable Galileo, he would seem an ideal candidate for Epsom Downs.
Beggy’s win on Sovereign last year was questioned in many parts after the apparent pacemaker capably fulfilled the first part of his task but palpably failed in the main objective, to usher home the Epsom hero Anthony Van Dyck, who never got nearer than his six- length second place at the line.
Sovereign had been off the track from one Derby Day to the next and put in a totally different type of display. He showed clear signs that, like the recently-retired Kew Gardens, who got the better of the Gosden champion on Champions Day at Ascot last October, he could become a challenger for the important staying prizes.
Seamie Heffernan held him up at the back of the field, and his strong run into a closing third behind smart stayer Twilight Payment in the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes was one of many highlights on a great Curragh weekend graced in magisterial style by Magical. Her Pretty Polly exhibition was a fourth Group 1 success among ten wins from 22 starts.
Meanwhile, back at Epsom, The Oaks is also up for grabs on Saturday and it will not be easy to wrest the initiative from the two Ballydoyle 1000 Guineas winners from either side of the Irish Sea, Love and Peaceful.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/englishking_LingfieldDerbyTrial.jpg318830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-06-29 07:24:322020-06-29 07:24:32Monday Musings: Bjorn to be King?
3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction)WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...
...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...
...that number 1...
To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.
So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...
all came in handicaps
2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners
Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...
4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill
...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).
The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...
The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...
...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...
17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle
...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-06-29 07:12:012020-06-29 08:31:59Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020
Definitely a week of ups and downs starting with a run of four defeats including a few poor performances and then a better end to the week with two winners.
And despite both winners having their odds reduced by Rule 4 deductions denying us 2pts profit, we still cleared almost 3pts on the week.
So with two more picks to come, our worst case scenario for June has now moved on to +27.17pts, one of our best ever months and the best since we made 31.75pts in January 2019. We'd need a 4/1 winner to beat that figure, whilst a 5/1 success would give us our best ever, beating January 2012's 32.82pts.
Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.
Chris
Selections & Results : 22/06/20 to 27/06/20
22/06 : Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 23/06 : Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 24/06 : My Valentino @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/1
25/06 : Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 9/1 26/06 : National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG (3/1 after a 20p Rule 4 deduction)WON at 10/3
27/06 : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction)WON at 9/4
22/06/20 to 27/06/20 : 2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +2.83pts
June 2020 :
8 winners from 24 = 33.33% SR P/L: +29.17pts
ROI = +121.54%
2020 to date :
17 winners from 85 = 20.00% SR P/L: +15.00pts
ROI = +17.65%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
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