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It's all a bit groundhog day again this week. It just seems to be one winner per week at present and sadly that proved to be the case again.
I'm frustrated/disappointed at the numbers of late, but I'm generally happy with the picks, as we're there or thereabouts most days. Poor tactics cost us an 8/1 winner on Monday and we'd a nice victory on Tuesday. Wednesday & Saturday saw us bag runners-up slots, whilst Thursday's runner unshipped his rider when going really well and to top it off, Friday's pick was undone by the Ascot draw.
These aren't excuses, they're facts, but the main over-riding fact is that we just didn't do well enough, so we'll try again this week!
Chris
Selections & Results : 31/08/20 to 05/09/20
31/08 : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3 01/09 : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 02/09 : Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1
03/09 : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2 04/09 : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2
05/09 : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8
31/08/20 to 05/09/20 : 1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts
August 2020 :
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR P/L: -3.88pts
ROI = -14.92%
September 2020 :
1 winner from 5 = 20.00% SR P/L: -1.50pts
ROI = -30.00%
2020 to date :
27 winners from 142 = 19.01% SR P/L: +5.31pts
ROI = +3.74%
Overall:
683 winners from 2606 = 26.21% SR P/L: +537.18pts
ROI: +20.61%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/SotDimage.jpg320830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-09-06 15:55:552020-09-06 16:04:54SotD Update, 31st August to 5th September 2020
There are plenty of big handicaps on Saturday and we also have Group 1 action so it should be a great day for betting whatever your race type preference. This week I’m going to look at another one mile Group race, having previewed the Celebration Mile last week at Goodwood. This week it's the Group 3 Superior Mile (1.45pm) at Haydock.
I’ll be using Instant Expert once again for this race but it’s worth noting that there are some more lightly raced types in this race compared to last week which means there will be a few more unknowns.
The Going
The ground is going to be a hugely important factor here with underfoot conditions currently described as soft, heavy in places on Friday afternoon. It’s due to be a dry weekend so we’ll probably be look at soft ground all over.
To get as much data into Instant Expert as possible I’m going to include data from ground described anywhere between good to soft and heavy.
A few things initially stand out here. First of all Dark Vision has failed to place in all four starts on softish ground. He’d have half a chance on his best form but it looks as though a line can be put through this runner when there is cut in the ground.
Khaloosy and Kinross both have both encountered softer ground once and they both won those races.
Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar have both had plenty of experience in these kinds of conditions and both have strong records. Stormy Atlantic has placed in six of his eight runs on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy whilst Qaysar is three from five as far as placing is concerned. The pair both have three wins when the mud is flying.
The well fancied My Oberon and Top Rank are yet to run on softer than good whilst outsider Graignes is also an unknown as far as the ground is concerned.
For those that are yet to run on softer ground we can get an insight into their suitability for testing conditions by using Instant Expert to look at sire data.
Stormy Atlantic (Stormy Antarctic), Kingman (Kinross) and Dubawi (Khaloosy & My Oberon) all score well here and those sire stats aren’t contradicted by what we have seen from these offspring so far which is great. Comparatively the offspring of Dark Angel perform fairly poorly so Top Rank is far from guaranteed to enjoy these conditions.
Class
My Oberon has run once and placed once in class 1 races. Stormy Antarctic is by far the most experienced of these at this level with fourteen runs and six places. Dark Vision has two places from six attempts in class 1 races so he’s had plenty of tries at this sort of level without much success. Another strike against that runner.
Qaysar and Top Rank both step up in class whilst Khaloosy has failed to place in his only run in a class 1 with Kinross failing to place in two attempts in class 1 races.
Course
Not much course form on offer here but a big tick for Qaysar who has placed in two runs from three here. Both of those places were actually victories.
Distance
Top Rank has been most consistent at a mile to date, placing in all five starts, which we know were all at a lower level than this. At the other end of the scale Kinross and Qaysar have not been as consistent at this trip.
Field Size
Top Rank and Khaloosy have both placed in their sole start in fields of this sort of size. We have much more data for Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar and Dark Vision who are clearly comfortable in these mid sized fields.
A Look At The Form
We have plenty of question marks still as we only have limited data for the more lightly raced contenders.
Doubts Over Top Rank and Kinross Justified?
Top Rank and Kinross are two runners who are on the brink of having a line put through them based on the results from Instant Expert. Top Rank was beaten by a length in a handicap off a mark of 103 last time out. He’s now rated 106 which leaves him with 8lbs to find on the top rated runner here. He is lightly raced so may still improve but he’ll need to do so on ground he’s unproven on so comes with plenty of risk attached for a 6/1 chance.
Kinross has form on this sort of ground but it’s difficult to weight up as it was a wide margin maiden win. He did beat the now 97 rated Raaeb by 8 lengths (in receipt of 6lbs) so it was a smart effort on that occasion. His two runs this season have come in Group 1 company and he hasn’t been totally disgraced, especially as those runs came on faster ground. He’ll need to improve for the return to this ground though and he’s as yet unproven in ground quite this soft so backers are taking plenty of chances.
The Shortlist
There is little form that suggests Graignes is going to win this and the ground looks against Dark Vision so we are currently left with:
Khaloosy
My Oberon
Stormy Antarctic
Qaysar
First let’s look at the more exposed pair of Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar. Stormy Antarctic has had an official rating between 111 and 114 for the past 4 years which means we should know exactly how good he is. Instant Expert has shown that he is a horse with an okay record in better class races that relishes cut in the ground. On heavy ground he has form figures of 112, on soft ground he has form of 114 and that defeat came at the hands of Roaring Lion in a Group 1. Even on good to soft ground at a mile his form figures are 10222 with that blowout coming in the 2000 Guineas.
He clearly loves this ground but how good is he? He’s the horse to beat according to official ratings, although there are several possible improvers in this line up. He’s won two of his three starts at Group 3 level over a mile. His defeat came earlier this year at the hands of Century Dream. He carried a Group 2 penalty that day (which he doesn’t have to shoulder here) and that was his first start in almost 12 months so 4th was a decent enough effort. At Group 2 level at this trip he has finished 2nd and 3rd and the ground wasn’t quite as soft as he’d like on either occasion. He’s clearly good enough to win this sort of race and will be getting close to ideal conditions here.
Unlike Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar is completely unproven at this level. He’s improved each season though and is rated just 3lbs shy of Stormy Antarctic courtesy of winning a handicap over course and distance on testing ground by 4.25 length off a mark of 105. He’s failed to reproduce that form in two runs since but one of those runs was in a small field conditions race on fast ground and the other was in a York handicap off a mark of 111 and he was well enough beaten on his previous York run off a much lower mark. He’s probably not going to prove much better than his current rating but his best career run came here under similar conditions and a reproduction of that might see him reach the places.
Khaloosy and Oberon actually met last time in a Group 3 at Goodwood and My Oberon was 2.5 lengths in front of Khaloosy. My Oberon was also badly hampered by the winner so was value for further. Whilst My Oberon looked at home on the ground that day Khaloosy looked all at sea with the combination of fast ground and unconventional track clearly against him. Khaloosy is much better judged on his previous effort at Royal Ascot where he won the Britannia Handicap easily. That race has worked out well and beating Finest Sound (now rated 94) giving him 7lbs and a comfortable looking 4.5 length beating means he probably ran to a rating even higher than his current mark of 111 that day.
My Oberon has no soft ground form and although he’s bred to handle it, he’s previously been described by his trainer as ‘a fast ground horse’ so there have to be some reservations. Those same reservations don’t hang over Khaloosy whose sole run in testing conditions was by far his best.
Pace
We all know how important pace can be, especially in these smaller field races that can be run at a crawl on occasions. Here is the pace map for this race based on their last four runs:
As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this contest so those that are able to sit handily could be advantaged as could be those who have proven themselves to be a bit ‘speedier’. Stormy Antarctic stays further than this so he’d ideally want a strong test and many of Qaysar’s best efforts have come when held up, although he is tactically versatile. My Oberon has a nice race style for this sort of set up but the question mark over the ground remains. Khaloosy was held up at Ascot but those were the right tactics to employ on the day and he’s been ridden much more prominently in his other runs.
Verdict
Assuming Khaloosy isn’t just much better at Ascot, he deserves another chance here and after just 4 career starts he should be able to improve past the extremely solid yard stick that is Stormy Antarctic. Meanwhile Qaysar isn’t a terrible bet for a place and could fill 3rd spot behind the other pair if things go to plan.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Haydock_DavidProbert.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-09-04 14:13:052020-09-04 14:13:05Grounds For Concern For Leading Superior Mile Runner
Watch out Oisin, and for that matter Tom, Hollie’s on the prowl! The estimable Master Murphy might be a 6-1 on shot to retain his title in the 2020 Flat Jockeys’ Championship, but in the world of sport (yes Sky it’s sport not sports!) momentum is everything, writes Tony Stafford.
The 23-year-old pocket battleship already had one record on her growing honours board – I bet Mr Marquand has to look at it every day in their shared home in Hungerford – that of the 116 best-for-a-female wins in 2019. At Windsor on Saturday, while Tom was an hour and a half away at Newmarket drawing a blank from his five mounts (two favourites), Hollie had five memorable winners at Windsor. While the cat’s away, one might say.
Needless to say, this was the first time a female rider had ever ridden a five-timer on a single UK card. No doubt Julie Krone, the American who retired from professional race riding in 1999 when Hollie was barely two years old, will be aware that in this unassuming young lady, there are many similarities with herself.
In July 1992, the Daily Telegraph sports editor, in his wisdom, despatched me off to Redcar for a Wednesday night meeting that really did attract attention. The first race was the Julie Krone Maiden Stakes and, fittingly, the then 28-year-old Michigan-born sensation was duly set up with a winner. Al Karnack, an 11-2 on shot trained for Ecurie Fustok, major owners at the time, by Mohammed Mubarak, won by 20 lengths.
Four more rides followed, with two wins. I spoke to Ms Krone a few times during the event and, thinking back, like Hollie today, you were immediately struck by her small stature but most obviously the strength in her powerful broad shoulders. Picture Ms Doyle in five years’ time after many more hours in the gym and on the Equisizer and you will have Julie Krone mark 2.
Krone at that time was really about quantity, just as Hollie had been until the recent flurry of Listed and Group wins following her initial Royal Ascot success two months ago on the Alan King-trained Scarlet Dragon. At Windsor she collected two more stakes victories, a Listed on Hughie Morrison's Le Don De Vie and the Group 3 Gallagher Group Winter Hill Stakes on the Roger Charlton-trained Extra Elusive for her new retained boss, owner Imad Sagar. The following summer from that Redcar evening, in June 1993, Krone won her only Triple Crown race, the Belmont Stakes on Colonial Affair, highlight of her 3,704 career wins.
Both Hollie’s big winners and the other three that comprised her epic achievement owed as much to her ability to find a clear course on her mounts and the determination with which she sometimes contrives such a position through sheer willpower. On to Yarmouth yesterday, where three more victories followed and only bar narrow reverses by a short head and then, irritatingly, a nose, was a second five-timer within 24 hours foiled.
I noticed one race at Beverley on Thursday where the Archie Watson–trained Harrison Point looked in danger of being reeled in by Tony Hamilton on fast-finishing Zip. But as he came alongside, Hollie allowed her mount to edge slightly left, making her own mount’s mind up and possibly persuading the eventually runner-up to think again.
Watson of course, one of racing’s young innovators, was first to give more than a passing acknowledgement of the young rider’s potential – although Wilf Storey says he beat Archie to it! -, putting her on the majority of his flying juveniles painstakingly-schooled at home and often in barrier trials to show their form first time. She repaid that confidence by almost invariably getting them quickly away from the gate – a vital skill in sprints that many other riders find elusive. No names, as Mr Bolger might say.
At Windsor, on the rain-softened ground, Hollie identified the need to get to the favoured far rail, tailoring her tactics with that in mind. Every time she was first onto the far side, she stayed there until the finish. At Yarmouth, she made it to the front four times, and while it looked as though each of her mounts was vulnerable to a challenge from behind, it was only in the last stride that Jamie Spencer, on a typical last-to-first flourish on Ilalliqa could get to her on the Crisfords’ Late Arrival.
Her other near miss, Little Brown Trout, would have needed only another couple of strides to catch the Tom Queally-ridden Spirited Guest. Ten winners in two days surely would have been too much, for the racing world generally and especially for the boys at the top of the table.
Momentum in the Jockeys’ Championship race can be vital. Oisin Murphy, at 6-1 on might seem uncatchable on 94 wins, bolstered by the first three at Goodwood yesterday, but he has an eight-day suspension to serve out which means he misses the St Leger meeting this week. Ben Curtis, more annoyingly for another of the go-to men for big southern stables when their horses head north for minor meetings, has an automatic 14-day exclusion for his ill-judged foray into the nowadays-sacrosanct owners’ area at Newmarket last week, breaching the strict - but of which many may now say - outdated Coronavirus rules.
Those rules, though, were the basis that racing was allowed to start and remain the cornerstone of its license to persist. Curtis’ mistake was that he chose to talk to the owner of the one horse he was going to ride at HQ, annoyingly a late switch because Hamilton was abandoned through waterlogging. As one trainer who uses Curtis’ talents said to me, “He could have arranged to meet him in the garage half an hour earlier, sat down and had a coffee, no problem.”
So, after a momentous weekend, after Murphy there’s a massive gap to William Buick (7-1) and Marquand (9-2) both on 70. Curtis is next on 63 with Doyle up to 60. She is almost certain to narrow the gap in the coming week given her present rate of progress and while talk of a championship this year might well be so much pie-in-the-sky, second place at the main expense of her partner Marquand looks entirely possible.
Tony Nerses, someone I’ve known for almost 40 years since the time he looked after the racing affairs of Prince Yazid Bin Saud, has been the power behind the upward mobility of Imad Sagar who, with Saleh Al Homaizi, owned Derby winner, Authorized. In recent years, Al Homeizi withdrew from their Blue Mountain stud operation, leaving Sagar to go it alone. Nerses was a constant factor throughout that time and the public face of the operation. I love his ads in the Racing Post when one of the Sagar horses wins a race, which say, purchase Authorized by Tony Nerses.
I’m sure he had more than a minor part in securing Hollie’s services. So far from only seven rides, she has recorded four wins including Group race success in the Rose of Lancaster at Haydock and Saturday’s big race both on Extra Elusive, yet another example of Roger Charlton’s skill in improving horses, along with the beneficial effect a gelding operation can bring.
The main issue here was that while Extra Elusive likes to go from the front, it was almost inevitable that he would be challenged for that position by the Mark Johnston candidate, Sky Defender. But instead of going head-to-head, Ms Doyle allowed Franny Norton to have the lead, tracking him a length behind before moving up on his outside to get the rail position she wanted after the point where the figure-of-eight crosses over. From there she was never going to be denied.
Earlier, on Hughie Morrison’s Le Don De Vie, she engineered a similar position at a crucial stage and the Australia-bound four-year-old won with some authority starting off what was to be a memorable weekend for the trainer.
Yesterday at Goodwood, his five-year-old mare Urban Artist, running for the first time in a handicap after winning her novice race at Windsor second time on the Flat, signalled a profitable future with an emphatic all-the-way win against some highly-regarded younger fillies. A couple of hours later Telecaster, continuing his French love affair with Christophe Soumillon, replicated the mare’s front-running exploits with a six-and-a-half length demolition of his Grand Prix de Deauville (Group 2) opponents.
Both horses are home-bred, Telecaster by the Weinfeld family’s Meon Valley stud and Urban Artist by the late Tim Billington. Morrison was very subdued when I spoke to him yesterday morning in advance of the Goodwood race. He said that Tim had died unexpectedly three weeks earlier. In all the debate about racing and its place in the world he said that Billington had paid £2,000 for yesterday’s winner’s fourth dam and she over time had been responsible for at least 30 winners and Tim, via his syndicates – “he couldn’t afford to own them outright himself” – had brought at least 50 people who would never have thought of owning a horse into the sport.
“That’s what it’s all about – or should be” said the trainer, who at the time could not have envisaged a better afternoon than the one he was to experience. Both yesterday’s winners are excellent examples of the value of continuity in racing and breeding. Telecaster is something like a sixth generation product of one of the two main Egon Weinfeld foundation mares, and the way he has progressed from somewhat flighty and disappointing Derby candidate last year to a potential Group 1 middle-distance winner as a four-year-old is testimony to his trainer’s patience and skill.
When Urban Artist was unsuccessfully tried last winter in a Newbury novice hurdle following two bumper wins (one Listed at Cheltenham) she was stepping outside her mother’s comfort zone. Urban Artist is only the second foal to race of Cill Rialaig. She too won two bumpers, one a Listed also at Cheltenham, but never raced over hurdles. Instead she went Flat racing and got into the 100’s while winning races among them at Royal Ascot. I remember her well, but I doubt she had quite the power of this talented mare who sluiced through the ground to complete the Oisin Murphy hat-trick with complete authority to suggest a big hike from her initial 80 is inevitable.
It was Hollie’s weekend though, so I make no excuse for returning briefly to Julie Krone, about whom it is sad to relate that she never rode again in the UK during her professional career. But to get an estimate of how talented she was, she did ride in two consecutive Legends’ races at the St Leger meeting. In 2011, a full 12 years after retiring, and at the age of 48 she came to Town Moor for the mount on Declan Carroll’s Invincible Hero who started 4-1 favourite in a field of 16. He won with ease. Third that day was George Duffield who had been the runner-up to Krone 19 years earlier when on Richard Whitaker’s Gant Bleu, a 9-1 shot, she rode her second winner. “Led on bit two out and stayed on well” was the close-up comment.
As I said at the start, for me Hollie Doyle is the new Julie Krone. It’s amazing to think that now with Hayley Turner, Josephine Gordon and Hollie, all in turn riders with 100-plus wins in a season on their record, and with a host of French female riders benefiting from their continued (if in the case of the UK trio, unnecessary) weight allowance, the first female champion is not far away. I think we know who that will be!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HollieDoyle_ExtraElusive_RoseofLancaster.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-08-31 08:52:212020-08-31 10:33:40Monday Musings: Never Mind The (Gender) Gap
4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner)
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
More on this shortly, of course...
In a poor-looking race, I've hopefully grabbed us some value with a 5 yr old gelding whose form line looks the most promising of the 12 runners here today. Half of them have never won, only two including our pick have won within their last five starts and with three wins and four other top 3 finishes from his last ten starts (all on A/W), our selection clearly brings the best recent form to the table.
Those 10 runs include three wins on standard going, three wins going left handed, a win and a runner-up from two here at Southwell including a win on his only effort at course and distance. That C&D win was just three starts ago and he's only 2lbs higher here today.
The C5 icon on the racecard and the highlighting of my own Sthl AW angle suggest Gay Kelleway has done well at this track of late, so let's take a quick look at the evidence. Initially we can see that simply backing all Gay's runners here since the start of 2018 has been a profitable venture at...
...with a near 23% strike rate, an ROI at Betfair SP of over 45% and an A/E just shy of 1.25 all ticking lots of boxes for me. The average win odds suggests she's not relying on favourites or shorties to bring home the bacon, which also works for us today.
Now, based on the horse's record above and these trainer stats, I'd be happy to hang my bet upon those numbers, especially at the odds we've secured, but SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't at least attempt a deeper dig at the stats, would it?
So, here goes, of that 14/61 record here on the A/W at Southwell, Gay Kelleway is...
14 from 54 (25.9%) for 34.79pts (+64.4%) with male runners
13/48 (27.1%) for 11.57pts (+24.9%) at Class 5/6
13/43 (30.2%) for 43.12pts (+100.3%) at 1-30 dslr
13/42 (31%) for 17.97pts (+42.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
12/50 (24%) for 33.92pts (+67.8%) in handicaps
and 7/25 (28%) for 40.27pts (+161.1%) in fields of 8-12 runners...
...whilst Class 5/6 males sent off at 8/1 and shorter in handicaps within thirty days of their last run are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.1pts (+175.5% ROI), from which they are 5/7 (71.4%) for 27.25pts (+389.3%) in fields of 8-12 runners...
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/SotDimage.jpg320830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-08-31 07:07:142020-08-31 07:45:39Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020
We had a great start to the week with a 5/1 winner and a 4/1 shot beaten by just a short head, but things went downhill from there. In fairness, Saturday's runner-up ran a decent race, but was well beaten by a better performer on the day.
The upshot is that we're back where we were last Sunday, -2.88pts for the month, but it makes the maths very simple. If Monday's runner fails to win, we lose 3.88pts on the month and if we're to make profit from August, we need a 3/1 (or bigger) winner.
The fact that Tuesday's narrow defeat could be the difference between success and failure for the month merely serves to highlight the very fine margins we have to work within every time we stick our neck out and recommend a horse.
Can/will I land a 3/1 winner tomorrow? Well, I certainly hope so!
Chris
Selections & Results : 24/08/20 to 29/08/20
24/08 : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 25/08 : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 26/08 : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2
27/08 : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2 28/08 : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1
29/08 : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1
24/08/20 to 29/08/20 : 1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts
August 2020 :
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% SR P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -11.52%
2020 to date :
26 winners from 136 = 19.11% SR P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +5.74%
Overall:
682 winners from 2601 = 26.22% SR P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.74%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
Soft ground seems to have scared many runners away this weekend leaving us with a day of largely smaller field races. The highest class race of the day is the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood and that’s going to be the focus of this article. One of the most popular features of Geegeez Gold is the ‘Instant Expert’ and I’m going to use the Instant Expert to gain a quick overview of the seven runners set to take part in this race.
Place Data
First let’s take a look at it from a place perspective:
Ground
I’ve set the going parameter to anything from good to soft down to heavy. We are probably going to be looking at soft, borderline heavy ground for this race but this should allow us to get more data. We can dig deeper into what specific going each horse has handled or not handled later.
It seems that Century Dream and Sir Busker stand out as two runners that not only handle cut in the ground, but relish it. Century Dream has had the most runs on testing ground and has impressively placed in seven of his ten runs. Sir Busker is next best with four placings from six runs on ground that is good to soft or softer.
There is limited evidence about Urban Icon’s ability to handle cut in the ground as he’s had just two runs in these conditions, placing in one of those.
Interestingly enough Regal Reality and Benbatl, the two early favourites have failed to place in over 50% of their races in this sort of going. Between them they’ve managed just three placings in nine starts. The only runners in this field to have never placed on softer ground are Duke Of Hazzard and Positive who seem to have been kept away from softer ground as often as possible and with good reason.
Class
Century Dream again comes out on top having placed in five out of eight runs in class 1 races. Duke Of Hazzard and Positive, who scored poorly on this ground, actually score very well here. That’s not a big help though if they don’t go on the ground.
Urban Icon, Regal Reality and Benbatl have poorer records in class 1 races but it’s worth remembering this will include anything from listed contests to Group 1 races and there can be more merit in finishing 4th in a Group 1 than 1st in a listed race. We’ll dig deeper into the race class later.
Sir Busker is the only one of these to be running in a class 1 race for the first time.
Course
At a course as unique as Goodwood course form is always a positive. There is one clear winner here and that is Duke Of Hazzard who has never been out of the frame in four starts. Sir Busker has placed in two of his three runs. It’s fair to say that no runner is this field has run poorly at this venue.
Distance
You’d expect most runners in a Group 2 to have a solid record over the race distance but it’s worth noting that the favourite here, Benbatl, has managed just one placing in five runs at a mile. This stat really stands out and along with the ground stats for Benbatl suggests he has a poor profile for this race.
Like Benbatl, Regal Reality is another who scored badly on this ground and also has a poor record over this distance whilst Urban Icon is another with a sub 50% placing ratio at a mile.
Century Dream continues to score well with the best ratio here having placed in 67% of his runs over a mile.
Field Size
Often an underrated criteria, many horses are better suited to bigger fields and others to smaller fields. Yet again Century Dream is looking good having placed in all his runs in field sizes of 7 or less.
The stand out here is Regal Reality’s record in small fields. He’s managed to place in just two of his eight runs in field sizes this small.
Placings Summary
Without having to dig deep into the form Instant Expert has shown us that Century Dream is the really solid horse in this race. Sir Busker also scores well in most categories but is unproven (having been untried) in this sort of company. Duke Of Hazzard looks pretty good but there are serious ground concerns.
At the other end of the scale, Benbatl and Regal Reality, look two of the riskier propositions despite their positions in the market.
Win Data
This is what Instant Expert looks like for win purposes. We are getting less data here but the data we do get should be more telling.
Once again Century Dream is coming out very well on all criteria except course as he is yet to run at Goodwood. Sir Busker is another who looks solid and a good proposition over a mile on testing ground at Goodwood. He’s yet to prove himself in this company and perhaps the biggest question mark for this horse is his ability to run well in smaller fields.
Duke Of Hazzard is interesting based on his course record of three wins from four starts. He also has a decent enough strike rate at this distance and in small fields. He’s had only one run on softer ground and finished unplaced so that’s the big unknown.
Early favourite Benbatl only really seems to have small field ability in his favour for win purposes whilst Regal Reality is unbeaten at Goodwood but other than that most of the elements that make up this race seem against him.
Positive scores poorly for wins in any of these circumstances except field size, and even a sole victory from three starts in small fields isn’t that great on the face of things. Meanwhile there is little evidence that Urban Icon will be at home in this race.
Digging Deeper
So far we have a very positive profile for Century Dream, a generally positive one for Sir Busker and a big ground question mark over Duke Of Hazzard. It also seems Benbatl and Regal Reality might be worth taking on.
Let’s first look at Duke Of Hazzard’s ground preference as he may be easy to rule out on that basis. Instant Expert is only able to look at runs from the UK and Ireland and a deeper look at Duke Of Hazzard’s form tells us he’s actually run three times on ground softer than good. Two of those runs were perhaps slightly below par but in Group 1 company so finishing unplaced wasn’t a disgrace. He also finished 2nd in a listed race at Deauville on good to soft. It doesn’t look as though he’s hopeless on softer ground and he clearly goes very well at Goodwood but there has to be a suspicion he is at his best on fast ground and it will probably take a near career best to win this.
Are Benbatl and Regal Reality really no hopers in this race despite their odds? Benbatl is the highest rated runner in this field and has largely been contesting Group 1 races over the past few years so having more unplaced efforts isn’t the end of the world. Looking at the ground though, he has been beaten favourite on softer than good on three of his four starts in those conditions (and was well beaten over too far a trip on his other attempt). The worse the ground gets, the worse he performs it seems.
Benbatl also had some worrying stats in races over a mile. Two of his five runs at a mile came on heavy ground. Those runs are relevant here as the going may not be far off heavy but they aren’t poof that he isn’t effective at a mile. He’s won over this trip at Group 2 level in the past so he’s clearly capable of winning this sort of race at this distance but it backs up the suspicion that the ground will be too soft for him.
Regal Reality was an impressive winner last time out over this trip at Group 3 level (good to firm). That was in an 8 runner field which perhaps allays fears he doesn’t act in smaller fields (he does have a poor record when there are 7 or fewer runners). All his wins outside of maiden company have been on good to firm ground though and whilst he’s placed on softer ground it’s worth noting that his only defeat from four runs at Group 3 level came on soft ground. The ground is the main reason to oppose Regal Reality but the fact he’s not won above Group 3 level in eight attempts is also a concern for his backers.
That leaves us with Century Dream and Sir Busker. Century Dream looks extremely solid based on Instant Expert so let’s see if he has any limitations. He’s never run at Goodwood but there is nothing in his profile that suggests he won’t handle the course. Possibly the best evidence we can get is to look at the Instant Expert for this race but from the sires’ perspectives.
Cape Cross’ offspring have run nine times at Goodwood in the past two years producing two winners. That might not seem a massive win ratio but it’s only bettered by Sire Prancelot (sire of Sir Busker) here and even then that’s by just 1%.
Let’s now look at Century Dreams’ defeats in Group company over a mile with cut in the ground. His two career unplaced efforts in these conditions came in an Ascot handicap on good to soft ground where perhaps it wasn’t quite soft enough for him and again at Ascot in a Group 1. In fact this horse has won just once from seven starts at Ascot (33% strike rate elsewhere) so it might not be his ideal course, for all he is Group 1 placed there on soft ground. Away from Ascot his only defeat over mile on softish ground was a 2nd in a listed race at Newmarket.
It would be hard to argue that Century Dream isn’t good enough to win this Group 2. His only run so far at this level was a 4th in the Summer Mile at Ascot on unsuitable good to firm ground. He has won both his starts at Group 3 level comfortably and has previously got within ¾ of a length of Roaring Lion in the QEII stakes at Ascot (possibly not his favourite track).
Can Sir Busker defeat him? He’s been a rapid improver this season, going up 19lbs in just 5 runs and he’s still relatively unexposed at this distance. He was slightly unlucky not to win a competitive handicap last time out off 107 so could easily yet rate higher than his current mark of 111 which leaves him just 4lbs to find on Century Dream. Sir Busker was 2nd here as a 2yo, won a low grade handicap here as a 3yo and his only unplaced effort at this course was in the Golden Mile two starts ago when getting no run on the rail whatsoever.
The main concern with Sir Busker would be his ability to handle small fields. He’s a real hold up performer who needs a decent pace to aim at so it stands to reason he’d generally be better in bigger fields. He has won in 8 and 9 runner fields, albeit off much lower marks in handicaps, but was outpaced in several smaller field races last year (often at shorter trips than this).
The key here to Sir Busker is going to be the early pace.
Benbatl is likely to lead with Century Dream well placed just off him. It doesn’t look like there will be a strong pace which could inconvenience Sir Busker. If Benbatl ends up being withdrawn because of the ground then there is likely to be an even slower gallop and that pushes things more in the favour of Century Dream and less in the favour of Sir Busker.
They say ‘class horses go on any ground’ but the evidence in this race is that several of these are going to find conditions (not just the ground) against them. Century Dream seems to have everything going for him and Sir Busker is not far behind.
I wouldn’t put anyone off either of these runners who are available at 11/2 and 9/1 respectively at the time of writing. Unfortunately with just 7 runners each way betting is far less attractive. However it could be worth maximising the value from this race by backing both Century Dream and Sir Busker in a reverse forecast.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/desertencounter_goodwood.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-08-28 13:41:492020-08-28 13:41:49Dream Conditions For Century In Celebration Mile
There was a big horses in training sale at Newmarket this week. Late August seems a perfect time to acquire a three-year-old off the flat with a view to going hurdling and so I set to work on a mission to find such a horse.
Sadly, though obviously not surprisingly, I was not the only one at that public auction with that intention: the place was crawling with the great and good of the bloodstock agent and training ranks all seeking the pick of the sophomores to embark on a change of subject.
The reality of racehorse syndication is that there will always be people with deeper pockets; actually that's just a reality of life which is also reflected in the microcosm of the sales ring. But, as in life, so it is the case that some smaller owners are consistently 'lucky'. They make their limited budgets stretch far beyond wealthier purchasers for all that the very top prizes are still almost always out of reach.
Getting 'Lucky'
In recent times we've been 'lucky'. Luck, as Gary Player famously once articulated, is primarily a function of effort and persistence. So I try hard to find a route in which, if not exclusive to me (there's very little new under the sun, especially where such sums of money are concerned), is generally under-utilised. And then, importantly, I rely heavily on my data-driven research being underpinned by expert conformation eyes. When the data agrees with the eyes of experts, we want to play. Naturally, so do many others.
But sometimes horses slip through the net.
We bought Coquelicot, who was at the time already a half-sister to an Ebor winner and Melbourne Cup second and by a rising star of the stallion ranks (Soldier Of Fortune), for €26,000. She was a three-time bumper winner, most recently in Listed grade, in her first season.
We bought Windswept Girl, a 13-length winner of her only start to date, for £20,000. Both are exciting mares' novice hurdle prospects for this term and, because of their pedigrees, have long-range broodmare possibilities, too. We recently bought a Kayf Tara full sister to a Grade 2 winner (and twice G1 fourth) for £22,000. She is showing early promise and has a similar blueprint at a similar price point to her pair of proven predecessors in the geegeez livery.
Previously I've bought two three-year-olds to go hurdling. Both were sourced for me, though they had a similar style: not small, recent winners on the flat, likely or certain to stay, proven on softer turf. In the world of juvenile hurdlers, where so many are either too small or can't see out the trip, that's enough to win races; at what level is the remaining question.
Of that pair, Oxford Blu won a Fakenham juvenile hurdle on his debut for us by 20 lengths before running in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. Swaffham Bulbeck was very consistent but didn't quite see out two miles and/or wanted softer ground than he typically got. He won twice, though, on Gold Cup day this year and last, both at Fakenham and both decent prize money. Importantly, they both gave us a lot of fun. That is pivotal when seeking a syndicate horse.
And so to Project Three-Year-Old Hurdler...
As ever, I was looking for an edge, and one thing which I think is not (yet) subsumed into this market is stride length and cadence. This is a new dataset that has emerged from the Total Performance Data sectional output. We store this data in our database but do not yet publish it. Attheraces already do publish it.
I'll not talk much about stride length and cadence because that master of matters sectional and striding, Simon Rowlands, has written some excellent introductory pieces, which are linked to from here.
The crux is that a longer stride covers more ground (duh!) and implies a bigger horse; a lower cadence (speed of stride) implies an ability to switch off - not over-race - and suggests stamina: it is very difficult to stride often and for a sustained period. Try sprinting 600 metres!
My theory, then, mindful of not having endless resources, was to find a biggish horse capable of relaxing in its races and therefore having the best chance of getting home when upped to two miles.
The Research, Part 1: What's Flat Got To Do With It?
One thing which seems fairly unclear at this stage is whether there is a correlation in National Hunt racing between stride data and performance. There may or may not be: hurdlers stride shorter and turn over their stride less frequently, due to the longer trip, the often softer ground, and the need to conserve energy to leap an octet and more of obstacles. Moreover, a greater proportion of jumps races are not run at an end-to-end gallop.
So what's the point in measuring strides?
Crucially, I was interested in the relationship between a horse's stride data on the flat and its subsequent hurdling ability. In other words, does a certain stride/cadence configuration imply a greater chance of success in the winter sphere?
Step one was fag packet research. Or, more correctly, back of an envelope research. I first looked at Class 1 and 2 UK juvenile hurdle winners.
C1/2 UK Hurdle Winner Flat Stride Lengths
I found that, for those which had raced on the flat at 10f+ (and for which stride data was available), they had generally achieved a 24ft+ peak stride length and somewhere between 2.2 and 2.3 strides per second during the flat race in question.
I then grabbed another envelope, a slightly bigger one, to review UK Class 4 and 5 juvenile hurdle winners' stride data from their previous flat careers. This is what that recycled paper looked like after I'd data vomited across it:
UK Class 4/5 juvenile hurdlers: flat race stride data
Here, I found that their cadence remained quite consistent at 2.2-2.3 strides per second; but their peak stride length was shorter. That might simply be as a result of these being smaller horses: regardless, it does seem at least a touch material.
The Research, Part 2: Projecting Forward
Mindful that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, I set to work in applying this half-cooked quackery to the upcoming - now just passed - sale. Armed with the timeform sales guide, a snip at £50 (well, if you're about to spend £30k on a horse...), the ATR striding data, and a spreadsheet, I listed every three-year-old that had achieved a TF rating of 75+, plus a couple of vaguely interesting extras.
[I eliminated some trainers from whom I would never buy because, for whatever reasons, they leave very little with which to work]
And then I added in some breeding intel, some ratings intel, and some stride intel.
Then, just for fun, I created a composite figure for each horse's official and Timeform ratings (added the two together and divided by 20).
And I created a second composite from stride length and cadence (stride length plus [[10 - cadence] x 2]) divided by five. Examples will help.
Camouflaged had an OR of 76 and a TF rating of 83. His ORTF composite, then, is (76+ 83) / 20 = 159/20 = 7.95
He had a stride length of 24.93 and a cadence of 2.21. His StrCad, then, is
Camouflaged's total was the sum of those two numbers, 16.05
These formulae are obviously sub-optimal. They're a stab in the dark on the basis of a tenuous going in position and, as such, they may be worthless. But this is what the embryo of progress looks like: data fertilised by an idea, loads of chucked away doodles and partially credible beginnings eventually whittled down to something which may form a basis for more robust and rigorous analysis.
To this crackpot code I added some delicious conditional formatting and it all looked a bit like this:
Then I Watched Some Races
The numbers, good or bad, will only take us so far. We must subsequently trust our peepers and our people. Eyes first.
I watched a lot of races involving the horses on my shortlist. I was looking for nods towards stamina, or horses being asked to do the wrong job, or racing with the wrong run style.
The challenge with those at the front is always whether they got outpaced or were simply not good enough. Honestly, I can't usually tell the difference. With those finishing off their races from further back, it's easy. Or at least easier.
To my spreadsheet I added some comments, which have not been sanitised below, so apologies for any offence caused:
The Sale Context
And then the sale began. I was buying this horse to be trained by Olly Murphy, and I relied heavily on his eye for conformation in conjunction with those on my list I considered more likely. That meant the most obvious horses - which would go for considerably north of my top budget - were not inspected.
The ones listed in green on my sheet were those I felt we had a chance of getting. As it turned out, they either went for plenty more or had underlying issues which meant they might be hard to train. Some will take a punt on such horses, and a subset of those punters will get lucky: consider Hilltop Racing's £2,500 purchase of Sceptical. He was a horse who hadn't stood training but managed to win a bunch of races and place in Group 1's in what turned out to be a short but illustrious career. He has since sadly perished, fatally injured while galloping.
Hilltop's modus operandi is thus - horses with great pedigrees, latent ability, but physical weaknesses - and it must be terribly attritional. That is their business, of course.
Looking for a biggish horse with a clean bill of health on a middling budget is tough. Here is my spreadie with the hammer prices and purchasers appended. I've removed some comments about physical issues observed.
What Did I Buy?
There was little of interest to me on the first two days, though I felt Far Rockaway and Chankaya might have been good. I wish their new connections luck but had reservations which precluded a bid.
The horse I liked on Tuesday made bundles - £82,000 - and might be decent. He kind of wants to be for that sum.
There was most to go at on Wednesday but, when my marker horse - Camouflaged - was knocked down for £90,000, I was resigned to the game being up.
The one that might have got away is Just The Ticket. It's possible, maybe even probable, I overrated his form a touch; and, if I didn't, his hammer price implies a potential physical issue. The agent who bought him buys for owners in the Arab states so I guess at least I'll not be frustrated to see him win the Triumph Hurdle..!
The horse we eventually bought was...
a four-year-old!
Makthecat was not what I went looking for at all; indeed he was already bought by Olly by the time I looked at his form. Almost all of his track form - a mile and a half clunk on the Southwell fibresand aside - has been at ten furlongs or less and ridden prominently or on the lead.
But... hark back to his career debut and his only run on turf beyond a mile and a quarter... where he finished second in a junior bumper... where he had a Listed bumper winner in front of him... and another one directly behind him! Six lengths back to the fourth.
Makthecat handles soft ground, looks likely to stay, and has a good size about him. He was bought for 22,000 guineas, and I am syndicating him right now. Current syndicate members get first dibs as always.
Oh, and he has a stride length and cadence 'in the zone': quite what that is worth, time will tell. I've added all the spreadsheet horses to a QT Angle so I can see how they go.
What About You?
This exercise took time, and it may ultimately have no nutritional value. But the process is important. Asking questions is important. Seeking candidate solutions is important. Trusting yourself to look for hints, clues, answers is important.
Some of you will not be curious, most will not trust themselves, or simply will not have time or inclination for such a project. Fair enough. But if you are curious, do trust yourself, and have both the time and the inclination to look inside the box, there are mysteries to unravel and there is value to be had, be it at the sales, in your punting, or in another walk of life entirely.
And, crucially, the process itself was great fun for me regardless of how things pan out. Life, as far as I can tell, is a series of journeys where the destination is often irrelevant.
As we move into the Autumn it is time to switch attention to pace angles and biases in National Hunt racing and specifically at individual National Hunt courses, writes Dave Renham.
As I have noted many times before, when I talk about pace my main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. The racecards on this site have a pace map for each race, as well as a tool to research pace bias, and the stats I am sharing with you in this article are based on the site’s pace data.
The pace data on Geegeez are split into four groups – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the pace score assigned to each group.
For this article I am concentrating on data going back to 2009 and, unless otherwise stated, on races of eight or more runners. Again the main focus will be handicap races, but often I will dip into non-handicap data too. Newton Abbot is the first course to be coming under the spotlight.
The course is a tight 1m2f oval with longish straights and is considered to be sharp in nature. The hurdle course has five obstacles, two of them in the home straight. One of the five hurdles is jumped on the first circuit only:
The chase course has seven fences with three flights quite close together in the back straight and 2 further flights in the home straight.
Newton Abbot Hurdle Pace Bias
They race at four distances over hurdles at Newton Abbot: 2m 1f, 2m 2½f, 2m 5½f and 3m 2½f.
Our first port of call is the shortest of the four distances.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 1 furlong Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
Here is the handicap hurdle breakdown (8+ runners):
We have a level playing field here: hold up horses (the '1' group) are a slight disadvantage, but it is relatively minor.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 1 furlong Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
In non-handicaps the picture is slightly different as we can see:
Front runners have a much better record in terms of win percentage and Impact Value, but before we get too carried away the A/E values across the board suggest there is no real value in front runners. This is because generally such races are less competitive and often those at the front tend to be the more fancied runners. This simple graph shows a pictorial comparison of A/E values in non-handicap races. The pace values are on the horizontal axis.
I have looked in more detail at these non-handicap races in terms of ground conditions. When the going is fast (good to firm or firmer) things look like this:
There are only 19 races in the sample but there emerges a pace bias, with front runners clearly doing best. Prominent racers have a reasonably good record also, while horses positioned mid-division or held up early seem to struggle. Despite the sample size being small, there is good correlation between the SR%s, EW%s, A/E and IV figures which gives me more confidence in the hypothesis.
When we look at the data on softer ground (good to soft or softer) the picture is quite different:
We have 25 races with softer underfoot conditions and it points to the complete reverse of the fast ground output. The bar chart below offers a pictorial comparison of the A/E values. The blue bars represent firmer ground, the orange softer ground.
In summary, the most interesting pace angle in non-handicap hurdles at 2m1f seems to be connected with the going. Firmer ground seems to favour pace horses; softer ground seems to favour horses that are patiently ridden, more especially those that race midfield (though the place percentages mean the softer ground arena is less concrete).
Newton Abbot 2 miles 2½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
It should be noted that when analysing this trip on Geegeez using either the Pace Analyser or the Query Tool, you need to set the distance parameters to 2m2f to 2m4f. This is because within those tools races beyond two miles are grouped together in quarter mile distance brackets.
Here is the handicap hurdle breakdown (8+ runners):
As with the minimum distance handicap hurdles, we see a fairly even spread of run styles with no edge to any particular group.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 2½ furlongs Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
In non-handicaps the pattern is similar with no clear edge to any pace section; however, hold up horses have really struggled as the table below shows:
A 2.1% strike rate for hold horses with a very low A/E value of 0.35 suggests we want to avoid these runners at all costs. The place percentage is also well below other run style groups.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 5½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
There have been 113 races over this trip since 2009, so this represents the biggest sample to date:
A bigger sample and a very consistent set of results: the A/E values range between 0.81 to 0.87, while the strike rates - both win and place - are similar also. There is little to report then pace wise, although when the going gets soft or heavy, (which is rare at Newton Abbot as the vast majority of their meetings are run between April and September), hold up horses have won 6 of the 14 races.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 5½ furlongs Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
Non-handicap races over this trip are less prevalent (49 in total) and here are the pace stats:
In such races there seems to be a slight edge for front runners, but it is not a potentially profitable angle. Those coming from the latter half of the field have a poor record which, as previously stated, may be at least in part to do with a relative ability limit.
Newton Abbot 3 miles 2½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias
On to the longest distance for hurdle races at Newton Abbot and at this range there have been just handicap races (48 with 8+ runners in total). Again due to the use of distance range brackets when looking on Geegeez you need to select races of between 3m2f and 3m4f to catch all the qualifying races:
At this longer trip, front runners have a clear edge and you would have made a small profit if backing them blindly at SP. The A/E value of 1.3 is a decent one, although we need to be slightly careful as the place percentage is less impressive/consistent.
Newton Abbot Hurdle Pace Bias: Summary
At Newton Abbot over hurdles you generally have to dig a little bit to find pace angles. In my opinion these are the four most promising:
In non-handicap hurdle races over 2m1f, front runners have the advantage on good to firm or firmer going.
In non-handicap hurdle races over 2m1f, horses coming from off the pace have the advantage on good to soft or softer ground, more especially those that race mid division.
In non-handicap hurdle races over 2m2½f, horses that are held up are at a big disadvantage.
In handicap hurdle races over 3m2½f, front runners have a solid advantage.
Newton Abbot Chase Pace Bias
They run over three distances the shortest of which is just more than two miles:
Newton Abbot 2 miles ½ furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias
There are not many races in total but here is the breakdown for handicap races with 8 or more runners:
From this small data set it appears that horses that race up with or close to the pace have an edge. This is a common trend across most courses for handicap races over a shorter distance. Hold up horses have a very poor record with a win strike rate of just 3.45% and an A/E of just 0.28).
Before moving on I thought it would be interesting to compare the A/E values in 2m1f handicap hurdle races with 2m ½f handicap chases. The blue bars are handicap hurdle, orange are handicap chases:
The upward sloping nature of the orange bars helps to illustrate the much stronger pace bias that exists to front runners in handicap chases than hurdlers at this shorter distance.
At Newton Abbot, handicap races over this distance often see smaller fields so below are the handicap data for seven runner or less handicaps too.
We see a similar trend here, though the pace edge is not as strong in races with fewer runners.
Newton Abbot 2 miles ½ furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias
In terms of non-handicaps at this distance there have only been 2 races with 8 or more runners. Instead, below are the data for 7 runner or less races:
Front runners enjoy a strong edge here and have proved profitable to follow. Of course, as mentioned elsewhere previously, predicting the front runner is not an exact science so making blind profits from front runners is not as straight forward as first appears.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 5 furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias
A decent number of handicap chases have been run with 8 or more runners at this distance since 2009. Here are the stats:
An edge again exists for horses that race up with or close to the pace. Hold up horses have a poor record again and l would steer clear of horses that have tended to rate further back in recent races.
Newton Abbot 2 miles 5 furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias
As with the shorter distance there have been a limited number of non-handicap chases at 2m 5f so I have lumped all the data together without the usual field size threshold:
Front runners have a fairly good record, but when looking at the A/E values things seem relatively even across the board.
Newton Abbot 3 miles 2 furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias
The longest trip at Newton Abbot now (8 + runners / handicap chases):
Front runners and those racing prominently have the clear advantage at this distance and, in general, you want to be handy. There is a good correlation across win and place strike rates, profitability, A/E and IV values.
All 11 wins from front runners have occurred in races on good going or faster and the bias is clearly stronger on better going. The A/E value for front runners confirm the strengthening of the bias as it stands at a very impressive 1.87 on quicker turf.
Newton Abbot 3 miles 2 furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias
For non-handicap races there have been only eight races with 8 or more runners so I will again look at all non-handicap races at this distance, without the field size restriction:
28 of the 30 races (93.3%) have been won by horses that raced close to or up with the pace. However, it should be noted that these runners have provided just under 70% of all the runners. All in all though it looks far more preferable to lead early or race prominently.
Newton Abbot Chase Pace Bias: Summary
For chase races at Newton Abbot the four strongest findings pace wise are:
In handicap chases over 2m½f, front runners have a fair edge, while hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.
In non-handicap chases over 2m½f (all races – no restriction on number of runners), front runners have enjoyed a strong edge.
In handicap races over 3m2f, front runners enjoy an advantage and in general the closer to the pace the better.
In non-handicap chases over 3m2f (all races – no restriction on number of runners), being up with or close to the pace bestows an advantage.
Some Context for the Newton Abbot Pace Bias Data
What is seen when researching pace in National Hunt racing is that there is normally a stronger front-running pace bias in chases when compared to hurdles. This is the case here at Newton Abbot.
Before I finish, stats in isolation - for example, just one racecourse - often benefit from the painting of a bigger picture. In this case, it is useful to know where Newton Abbot’s figure sit in relation to all UK courses.
Below is a graph which compares the A/E values for for front-runners in handicap chases at Newton Abbot against the overall front-runner A/E averages at all UK chase courses. The three distances are compared in the same graph:
As we can see Newton Abbot’s figures for the shorter and longer distance are around the average figure for all UK courses. The 2m5f trip, however, shows front runners perform below average at the South Devon track.
I have also compared the each-way strike rate figures between Newton Abbot and all UK courses to help further build an overall picture. The A/E figures deal with winners and it is worth looking at all horses who have managed to win or be placed:
In term of win and place runners combined we can see that, over 3m2f, Newton Abbot front runners perform well above the UK average. Once again they perform notably below the average at 2m5f, while at 2m, they are marginally below the average.
As a pace biased course, Newton Abbot lies somewhere in the middle when compared to all courses in Britain. Despite it not having the strongest edges, this article has still highlighted a few angles worth keeping a close eye on.
Good luck when having a bet at the next Newton Abbot meeting.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/newtonabbot.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2020-08-24 09:28:462020-08-24 09:34:34Newton Abbot Pace Bias
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+over 7½f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
Going to keep things nice and simple today, starting as usual with our self-explanatory racecard...
So, horse running pretty well, top of the Speed Ratings and representing an in-form yard. The elephant in the room from the racecard is trainer Iain Jardine's poor return over the last year at this venue denoted by the C1, of course. However that refers to all his runners here over the past 12 months, NH & Flat, handicap and non-hcp etc etc. It also only represents a small time frame and in certain circumstances, the Jardine runners are worth following here, as...
...since 2015 in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps over 6f to 1m5½f at odds of 7/4 to 13/2, the numbers are far more attractive at...
... an A/E of over 1.5, a near 1 in 3 win ratio and almost 65p in the pound profits at Betfair SP are all good to see and eliminate plenty of bets we'd not want to be making. And from those 48 runners above...
14/41 (34.2%) for 33.7pts (+82.2%) racing off a mark (OR) higher than 55
11/29 (37.9%) for 25.8pts (+88.9%) had raced in the previous 15 days
11/26 (42.3%) for 26.2pts (+100.8%) had made the frame LTO
and 6/12 (50%) for 17.1pts (+142.5%) had finished third LTO...
...whilst those racing off a mark higher than 55 within 15 days of a placed finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.2pts (+122.6% ROI), including 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 10pts (+200%) from those who were third LTO...
...and this simple approach points to... a 1pt win bet on Equidae @ 4/1 BOG(or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/SotDimage.jpg320830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-08-24 07:11:142020-08-24 07:37:21Stat of the Day, 24th August 2020
We were looking for performances of championship quality at York last week and Ghaiyyath, Love and Battaash certainly provided them, writes Tony Stafford. Battaash maybe didn’t need to be quite at his best to win a second Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes, benefiting from unexpectedly disappointing runs from Art Power and A’Ali as well as the absence of the Wesley Ward two-year-old Golden Pal. But he overcame difficult ground conditions and had to catch a flying filly in Que Amoro to land the odds.
Love was also an odds-on shot in the Yorkshire Oaks, and she made it three majestic Group 1s in the year following 1,000 Guineas and Oaks supremacy with another flawless performance, galloping five and a bit lengths clear of 33-1 shot Alpinista.
Aidan O’Brien and winning rider Ryan Moore did nothing to dissuade us that Love’s rightful objective and a highly winnable one would be the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in which she would form the third major protagonist along with Enable, wisely pulled out of a pre-emptive clash with her last week in favour of the September Stakes, and Ghaiyyath.
Much was made after the Yorkshire Oaks of the three-year-old fillies’ big advantage in the Arc against their elders and contemporary colts. They need to be good, though, and no female of that age contested last year’s race. Two did the year before, the sadly ill-fated Sea of Class just failed to catch Enable when her 7lb weight pull (10lb from older males) was almost enough. Magical, back at her best trip when a three-length second to the impressive Ghaiyyath in the Juddmonte last week, was tenth in that second Arc victory by Enable.
I think Love will win the Arc, and the way she coped with the rain-affected ground last week was probably the final piece in the puzzle.
I want to gloss over the rest of the big-race action at York to concentrate on three if-only moments, one from the Knavesmire, two of which certainly deserved to have a different result.
Peter Charalambous is an owner-trainer based in Newmarket who breeds most of his own horses but rarely has more than ten in training at any one time, many now running in the partnership name of pcracing.com. Over the years he has been particularly successful on the July Course at Newmarket where Trulee Scrumptious has been a standing dish, winning seven times on that track, usually at the Friday Newmarket Nights meetings, so greatly missed by regulars this year.
Before Trulee Scrumptious, Peter did even better with the higher-class mare Boonga Roogeta, who over five seasons won 11 of her 46 starts, at one time achieving an official rating of 96.
Now she is one of his most valued broodmares but when her 2018 foal by Equiano hit the track on the Rowley Mile this month, there was little hint of expectation in the overnight betting market. Called Apollo One, the colt, who went unsold through Book 3 of Tattersalls yearling sales last October at 3,500gns, opened at 33-1, drifting to 40’s before the Charalambous insiders caused him to drop to 22-1 at the off.
Difficult to load, he was slightly slowly away but Martin Harley allowed him to lead and despite setting only a modest pace, he was soon clear. Eased some way before the finish, he won pulling up by four lengths from the Richard Hannon-trained Keep Right On.
That was only a maiden auction race and he was receiving 3lb from the runner-up in a field of 11, so when he turned out for yesterday’s Solario Stakes, Group 3, at Sandown he was again an under-valued contender. Charalambous might be excused for thinking the horse was disrespected just as he, pointing to his Greek Cypriot heritage as a possible underlying reason, has often felt shunned and excluded by the Newmarket establishment.
In the race, faced by the highly-regarded Hannon colt Etonian, Apollo One, and this time the complete outsider of the field at 28-1, he was again was the subject of late support. He ran accordingly. Fast away under Luke Morris, he led until inside the final furlong where Etonian finally got to him and it was only in the closing strides that second-favourite King Vega got up to deny him second place by half a length.
The Racing TV team certainly gave Apollo One more than a passing complimentary mention and I’d love to see him win a Group race to give this enthusiastic and talented professional’s many years of hard graft some financial reward to go with the already secured black type recognition. Certainly Boonga Roogeta’s subsequent foals will get more attention at future yearling sales. It was nice, too, to see Julie Wood’s colours, after a quiet time, coming to the fore again with Etonian.
Like most of her horses in a much-reduced string compared with a decade ago, Etonian was bought as a foal, in his case at Goffs in Ireland for €14,000. Re-submitted in Tattersalls Book 4 the following year, fortunately he was led out unsold at 10,000Gns. A son of Olympic Glory, originally owned by Mrs Wood, but then bought by Qatar’s Sheikh Johann at the time when he was becoming briefly a major player, he won three of his four races in her colours. His first run for new connections was a victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day, so it would be a nice piece of symmetry if, as planned, Etonian takes in that same race this October.
I’ve been following the William Knight-trained Sir Busker all season, delighting in his wins, at Newcastle before lockdown when beating subsequent Royal Hunt Cup winner Dark Vision and then again in the consolation Hunt Cup. Since then he’s probably been the unluckiest handicapper in training, first throwing away a winning chance by hanging violently left in the last furlong of the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket before recovering to chase home Motakhayyel.
At Goodwood he was possibly the pick of all the many “stuck on the rails in handcuffs” victims, but at York this week came the unkindest cut of all. Dropped out by Oisin Murphy in the ultra-competitive 17-runner Clipper Logistics Handicap, he was easily spotted, moving along serenely up the inside under the champion jockey.
Then approaching the bend into the straight with nothing apparently to hinder his course, Murphy suddenly was confronted by a vision in light blue, the 50-1 shot Red Bond, on whom John Egan effected a wholly-unnecessary, highly-illegal and totally-damaging abrupt left turn onto the rails right in Sir Busker’s path.
Instead of turning for home in midfield, he now had five more horses than would have been the case to re-pass once he was able to re-engage forward movement. In the straight, with the whole field coming up the middle, Sir Busker, who, as he showed in the Bunbury Cup tends to go left, drifted across to the far rails with absolutely no cover. He had maybe five lengths to make up from less than two furlongs out only failing by a neck with once again a Hamdan horse, this time Montatham, denying him victory.
Rated only 92 at the start of the season, he was running off 15lb higher at York and in finishing second in a race where the first four home in that big field were the quartet at the top of the betting, should mean that his handicapping days are almost over. Knight though has long felt that the Cambridgeshire, over nine furlongs at his new home course Newmarket, is the ideal race while acknowledging he’ll need another personal best with the probability of another small rise in his mark to win that for all that it’s ideal in terms of getting cover and room to make your move. Then of course there’s the three-year-olds to worry about.
There was another instance of an unlucky loser at Cartmel yesterday on a day where massive prices, a week on from the 300-1 winner in Ireland, were once again commonplace, not just in Ireland, but also in England and France.
Ben Haslam was the star of the show at Cartmel, winning with a 66-1 chance, Black Kraken, in the opener and book-ending the card with 22-1 shot Ever So Much. The latter, an 11-year-old in the J P McManus colours was winning for the 13th time in his career, off a mark of 92. As the Haslam double came out at a massive 1,540-1, it is doubtful whether J P had too much on it! And, if he did, he’s very likely cursing his other Haslam runner, Demi Sang, finishing second at 9/1, narrowly foiling a 15,400 treble!
For much of the closing stages it appeared that his veteran would have to be content with second place as the 40-1 shot Artic Quest, having his first run for 13 months and stable debut for Micky Hammond, looked the certain winner three hurdles from home.
Unlike Ever So Much, Artic Quest had never managed to finish in the first three in any of his previous 16 races in Ireland, under Rules or in points. He achieved a solitary fourth place and that was the only time he got within hailing distance in any race.
In his last Irish outing, on July 6 last year, he ran in a three-mile hurdle, by which time the official Irish handicapper had given him an initial mark of 87. In a field of five at Bellewstown he started 100-1 and finished last, 47 lengths behind the winner and 20 lengths adrift of the fourth horse.
Three days later, Ever So Much, already a 12-time winner, ran his last race over hurdles before yesterday and was well beaten running off 99. In the interim he won one of five chases. In his wisdom, the handicapper dropped him 7lb to 92 for yesterday’s return to hurdles. The same official saw fit to rate Artic Quest, whose deficits in his 13 previous runs were (in bumpers) 25 lengths, pulled up and 19.5; then, over hurdles, 38 lengths, 9.5, PU, PU, 3.5, 55, PU, 116, 40 and 47. No wonder he rated him 7lb HIGHER than his Irish counterpart had done, so that yesterday he was GIVING weight to a prolific winner!
I spoke to Micky Hammond before the race and he said that while his form in Ireland was poor, Artic Quest had been working well, although the early-morning 25-1 had become double that before some small correction into his 40-1 SP.
Just like Sir Busker, ill-luck was to step in. At the sixth flight, as Becky Smith was just allowing the eight-year-old to move closer to the leaders, one of the front runners fell immediately in front of him, interrupting his progress. He recovered and, remarkably, was cantering all over the three leaders, with the rest already well beaten off jumping two out.
I can hardly call Micky at four a.m. to check if his horse, dismounted by Becky immediately on passing the line, had finished lame as I feared he may have done, but the way he weakened markedly while the winner plodded on halfway up the long run-in would tend to suggest he might have.
You guessed it. Sir Busker, Apollo One and Artic Quest, I was on them all. As I said, if only!
On a day when there was a 48-1 Group 1 winner in France for James Fanshawe, his third Prix Jean Romanet in six years; those two big prices at Cartmel and winners at 20-1, 22-1, 50-1 and 22-1 at Naas, why couldn’t I be allowed a 40-1 winner of my own?
We kicked off the week at -4.67pts for August, but I wasn't too concerned as it was Ebor week. I checked and re-checked my logs and yes, Ebor is a good time for me. I've made good money from the meeting every year for as long as I can remember, especially with two year olds, so bring it on!
Sadly, it was a week that disappointed and frustrated in equal measures, York became a graveyard for my personal bets and the three I put up for SotD all failed to make the frame. Thankfully we'd bagged a couple of winners earlier in the week to prevent a second consecutive wipeout.
Both of those winners were however frustratingly subjected to Rule 4 deductions denying us 1.72pts profit, meaning that we enter the run-in for August still 1 winner/2.88pts short of parity. It's far from over, of course, but I think we're going to need three winners before the month is out.
Chris
Selections & Results : 17/08/20 to 22/08/20
17/08 : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1 18/08 : Saluti @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 19/08 : Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (2.8/1 after R4) WON at 13/8
20/08 : Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG 6th at 6/1 21/08 : Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 3/1
22/08 : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
17/08/20 to 22/08/20 : 2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.78pts
August 2020 :
4 winners from 19 = 21.05% SR P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -15.17%
2020 to date :
25 winners from 130 = 19.23% SR P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +6.01%
Overall:
681 winners from 2595 = 26.24% SR P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.79%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
A month has passed since the previous episode of Clock Watcher, so it's high time we had another rummage through the sectional archives for interesting morsels.
In this gripping instalment, I'll share two potentially hot races and, firstly, two progressive hold up types whose limit may not have been reached.
Feel The Chil
We start with the latter pair, and a horse so good they named her twice. Chil Chil is her name; she's a sprinter who has moved through the handicap ranks from an opening mark of 63 to her current peg of 94. Hold up horses who generally find a way to win, like this daughter of Exceed And Excel who has won four of her last six, can stay ahead of the handicapper for longer than most as a result of their run style.
Of course, the leaders don't always come back which is the perennial frustration of backing closers but, in the case of Andrew Balding's four-year-old, such irritations have thus far been kept to a minimum.
As can be seen from those races for which we have sectional data - that is, Ascot and the TPD courses - her most recent effort was comfortably her most impressive. Settled at the rear, she was still four-and-a-half lengths last after the first third of the six-furlong contest. Indeed, she remained last with a quarter mile to go, though only three lengths behind the leader at that juncture. Thereafter, Chil Chil finished much the best and was most of two lengths clear by the line.
Because it was a slowly run affair early - note the winner's red chart line is beneath the light grey 'par' line in the image below - Chil Chil had more energy to expend in the latter part of the race and finished well above par, albeit that there is limited confidence in a very small number of races in our sample at this track/trip.
After a very steady (from a standing start) opening furlong, she then ran 11.78, 11.53, 11.30, 11.38, and 11.73 second furlongs. The final time of the race was unexceptional - though not slow either - but the addition of a 16 point upgrade (see the right hand side UP column) suggests this effort can be marked up considerably.
The handicapper obviously thought so, too, as he elevated her from 85 to 94 but there's at least a reasonable chance she's still hiding some of her light under that late charge bushel.
Omnivega's Too Late Charge
Talking of the charge of the late brigade - see what I did there? - let's discuss Omnivega. The David Simcock-trained four-year-old son of Siyouni ran in a mile and a half handicap on the same Ascot card as Chil Chil, but did not win. Instead, he rattled home late - too late - to be a never nearer fourth, beaten little more than a length.
The upgrade figures are chunky all round because the first half of the race was pretty steady; but look at that trio of red bars in the second half - and compare those against the trio of orange bars, representing the race sectional percentages, at the top.
Omnivega ran the last quarter mile a third of a second and more quicker than any of his eleven rivals and arguably should have won. He's been left on 90 by the handicapper, and retains a progressive profile after chalking up a hat-trick on the all-weather (check out that 60 (!) upgrade off a funereal early tempo at Lingers!).
Hot Race #1: Mohawk King For A Day?
The winner of a warm-looking Ascot juvenile maiden towards the end of July, Mohawk King, was making his debut for Richard Hannon and owner Isa Salman Al Khalifa. Slowly away, he sat quietly towards the rear before making up the two lengths deficit he'd conceded easily. It was quite hard work to finish the job off, mainly due to the tenacity of second-placed Churchill Bay, but finish it off he did and both he and the second look high class recruits.
Churchill Bay puts his credentials to the test once more on Tuesday at York in a six-furlong nursery: he will be the first of the first five home from this race to test their mettle on the Knavesmire this week. Mohawk King himself attempts to take another step forward when potentially contesting the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes on Thursday.
In third and fourth were a brace of Hamdan horses, Mayaas and Minzaal, both taking the eye. The latter, and his rider Tom Marquand, were slowest to react to the sudden quickening of the tempo but were closing well on the run to the line. Minzaal has since confirmed the promise of that effort by scoring with ease at Salisbury and, like Mohawk King, is entered in the Gimcrack. There was a length and a half between them in this Ascot race and that margin may narrow this time.
Mayaas, for his part, was only a couple of hundredths of a second slower than the winner through the last quarter mile and runs in a York nursery off 83 on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how he fares over that extra furlong and he's my idea of the most appealing bet from the Ascot to York quintet: his trainer, William Haggas, is a Yorkshireman exiled in Newmarket and he relishes Ebor week as much as any of his fellow county handlers. El Patron, fifth here, is also engaged in that contest.
Portrush Enables Prince to Dream Again
A month ago now, Portrush, who is Enable's half-sister by Frankel, made her second start. It is impossible for a filly with such an illustrious older sibling to enjoy a low-profile spin and so there was much focus on this second day at school after a very encouraging debut silver medal behind a good one at Newbury. Sent off the 11/10 favourite, Portrush was made to work for her victory, eventually coming home a neck in front of the Godolphin runner, White Mountain, with the 88-rated Tanita a further three-quarters of a length away in third.
That trio pulled six lengths clear of the other septet, whose subsequent 0-from-5 record can be ignored on account of them being essentially in a different (lower) division of the same race.
The sectionals show that the opening seven furlongs of this ten-furlong contest were even to slowly run, but mainly even, and that the closing three furlongs were very fast. Looking first at the chart below, note how the coloured sectional percentage lines follow the grey par line through the first half mile (to the 7-6 point) before diverging, markedly so from the 3-2 point.
That divergence is reflected in the orange and red colour bars in the inline result data for the first three home.
The time was decent if unspectacular intimating that these three distaffs have engines; the upgrade figures on top of those raw times suggest there is a good bit more to come from each of them.
The racing at York is going to be extremely competitive this week, especially if you are a fan of handicap betting like myself. Rather than trying to pinpoint the single winner of a race (which is going to be very difficult in most cases) it may be more helpful to attempt to narrow the fields down to shortlists of runners that should go well.
After showcasing Roger Charlton’s record in class 2 Newbury handicaps on Saturday I’m going to once again concentrate largely on course records and meeting records here...
First let's see the 20 trainers with the best win percentage (left) and P&L (right) at York since 2009:
We can get more specific again by looking at trainer records in just August since 2009 to see their records at this meeting:
To summarise the above information, the following trainers are of particular interest at York in general:
Charlie Fellowes
William Haggas
Dean Ivory
David Griffiths
Ron Harris
Hugo Palmer
Michael Dods
Mick Hammond
Hughie Morrison
Paul Midgely
And the trainers to pay particular attention to in handicaps at the Ebor Festival are:
Tim Easterby*
Michael Dods*
John Best
Brian Ellison
Nigel Tinkler
Hughie Morrison
Hugo Palmer*
Eve Johnson Houghton
Tony Martin*
Those marked with an * have 3 or more wins to their name so could be more reliable.
So now let’s look at the handicaps over the first two days of the Ebor Festival and see where these trainers have entries:
Wednesday
1.45pm - 5.5f
Michael Dods - Jawwaal
William Haggas - Aplomb
Tim Easterby - Hyperfocus & Copper Knight
Jawwaal is unbeaten this season and his success at Doncaster on seasonal debut has been well advertised since. He was well drawn when winning at Ascot and has been hit with an 8lb rise in the weights.
Aplomb may find this 5.5f trip perfect having shown decent form over 5f and 6f this season but he’d want some rain to be seen at his absolute best.
The problem with both those runners is the pace bias at York which tends to favour those up with the pace, especially at shorter distances. Tim Easterby’s pair are both likely to be near the pace. Hyperfocus ran only on Sunday and is well handicapped but he’s another who would want a fair bit of rain. If that rain doesn’t arrive Copper Knight could be the most interesting of the quartet. He hasn’t been at his absolute best this season but he hasn’t been running badly either and he’s won four of his eleven starts here, including one off this mark.
3.45pm - 2m
John Best - Eddystone Rock
He has run poorly in both starts this season but is now 1lb lower than when winning this last year. He’s two from three here and the only defeat was a sixth placed finish in the John Smiths Cup in 2017. This looks a hot renewal of this race but if the return to the Knavesmire sparks a return to form he’s capable of going well at a nice price.
4.20pm - 5f
William Haggas - Dancin Inthestreet & Pink Sands
Nigel Tinkler - Princess Power
Dancin Inthestreet is undoubtedly a well handicapped horse on several bits of form this season but her run style is definitely going to mean she’ll have to be very handicapped to win this.
Pink Sands is likely to be much closer to the pace and has never run a bad race. She’ll probably appreciate the return to a more speed favouring track and after just four starts, we have almost certainly not seen the best of her.
Princess Power ran below par on Tuesday at Beverley and may end up a non runner here. She often runs well in defeat but probably wouldn’t be favoured by this speed test.
4.50pm - 6f
Nigel Tinkler - Cobweb Corner
Eve Johnson Houghton - Soldier Lions & The Princes Poet
Cobweb Corner ran well in a similar type of contest last time out and should be near the speed but this is almost certainly tougher than his last race so he’ll have to improve.
Soldier Lions has been 2nd on both starts this season but the form of his last race has had a few knocks. The Princes Poet also seems to have a lot to find but there are so many unknowns in a race of this nature that it wouldn’t be a shock if something suddenly improves.
Thursday
2.45pm - 1m
William Haggas - Montatham
This looks a really hot contest but Montatham is still improving and hopefully there will be enough juice in the ground for him to run after he was withdrawn from the Golden Mile at Goodwood due to fast ground.
Low draws are favoured over this distance so stall 2 is a positive and after this last win at Sandown the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won since.
4.20pm - 7f
William Haggas - Mayaas
Improved on his 2nd start at Ascot, looking very much as if a step up in trip to this 7f would suit. He beat Minzaal that day who has come out and won impressively at Salisbury (well fancied for Friday’s Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes).
4.50pm - 7f
William Haggas - Lawahed
Tim Easterby - Excellent Times
Charlie Fellowes - Lady Of Aran
Lawahed is likely to be a warm favourite here on what could be a good day for William Haggas. She’s well bred and group 1 entered and clearly expected to be better than a rating of 85. That rating is more than deserved from her 3 starts so far but she won’t get an easy lead like last time.
Excellent Times won this at 66/1 last year which will have strongly contributed to Tim Easterby’s P&L in handicaps at this fixture. Has largely struggled since but has run well in three out of five course starts.
Lady Or Aran doesn’t always find as much as looks likely and is probably more consistent on the all weather. She doesn’t look brilliantly handicapped.
Friday
1.45pm - 1m4f
Tim Easterby - Dark Jedi
4.15pm - 1m2.5f
William Haggas - First Kingdom
4.50pm - 1m
William Haggas - Grand Rock & Cold Front & Johan
Michael Dods - Brunch
Saturday
2.25pm - 1m6f
William Haggas - Favorite Moon & A Star Above
Hughie Morrison - Kipps
Hugo Palmer - Eastern Sheriff
Tim Easterby - Fishable
3.40pm - 1m6f
William Haggas - Pablo Escobar & Monica Sheriff
Charlie Fellowes - Jeremiah
Tim Easterby - Glencadam Glory
4.40pm - 1m2.5f
William Haggas - Sinjaari
Tim Easterby - Aasheq
Mick Hammond - Irv
5.10 - 5f
Tim Easterby - Sunday Sovereign
It is by no means a sure thing that the selected trainers are the most likely winners of the races above but they have been amongst those with the best previous records at the course and at this meeting so it will be interesting to see how they get on.
It's a shame that more of the highlighted trainers haven't had runners here this year but we'll hopefully see them with entries at the remaining York fixtures this season.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/telecaster_toodarnhot_Dante_830x320.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-08-18 14:22:402020-08-20 13:40:27Trainer No Brainers: The Very Best At York And The Ebor Festival
We're coming up to the half way point in the 2020 flat turf season after its delayed June 1st resumption; and it feels like a good time to introduce a few fledgling trainers who have enjoyed flying starts and with whom you may not (yet) be familiar.
Before we meet them, however, a few words on the approach. Racing, like all sports and indeed pretty much all things, is transient: its actors come and go, wax and wane. From a betting perspective, the earlier we can latch on to potentially promising players - trainers, jockeys, sires, even horses - the better our chance of beating the market. The flip side is that, in the rush to become an early adopter, we are likely to encounter a share of false positives. In lay person's terms, one swallow doesn't make a summer: there is a danger that we (in this case, I) place too much store on an eye-catching beginning when little subsequent substance manifests beyond that early flourish.
Moreover, with new trainers in particular, their generally very small strings can quickly meet their match in the handicapper: win one, shame on me; win two, shame on you, as it were.
That's a verbose way of saying we need to tread carefully with what look like promising angles, and consider the early detection of new players in the wider wagering context of the race (conditions, other runners, draw, pace, etc).
So, with caution aforethought, here are my five to follow in the second half of 2020 and beyond:
George Boughey
Career record to date:
Boughey, like myself a good Dorset man, saddled the first runner from his Hamilton Road, Newmarket, stables on 24th July last year. Three weeks later, on 13th August 2019, in a lowly Class 7 event at Lingfield, he was off the mark, at the eighth time of asking. His debut runner, and winner, was the same horse, Three C's.
By the end of 2019, Boughey was 2/39 and on the tail of a 27-runner losing streak. By mid-February he'd added another five winners and, lockdown aside, has not looked back.
Before taking out his own license, Boughey had worked in bloodstock sales, and subsequently for the likes of Gai Waterhouse in Australia then, most recently, spent six years as assistant trainer to Hugo Palmer. Now out on his own, and up to speed, he's one to note and still a touch under the radar.
James Ferguson
Career record to date:
Former amateur jump jockey, and son of Bloomfields trainer and bloodstock adviser to Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin operation, John Ferguson, James has not so much hit the ground running as scorched the earth beneath his sneakers.
Clearly not one to set the bar too low, his website quotes him as saying, “My primary goal is to create one of the world’s leading training establishments, to train winners at the highest level at the biggest meetings, and to provide owners with an experience for their overall enjoyment”. Crikey, fair play.
After a short and somewhat low key overture between late November last year and late January this, the first movement of Ferguson's career arrived when Arabian King notched a hat-trick in little more than two weeks from 30th January. Interspersed with that one-horse treble was a score for Johnny Reb to round out a four-in-a-row sequence for the newbie trainer.
Based, like Boughey, in Newmarket, Ferguson's record gained Black Type lustre as Zoetic prevailed in the Listed St Hugh's Fillies' Stakes at Newbury on Sunday, the highlight of his career to date.
Ferguson had started out with a spell learning from Sir Mark Prescott before stints with Charlie Appleby, Brian Meehan and Jessica Harrington, all in assistant trainer roles. With a(n unsustainable) 25% strike rate so far, his entries should not be readily overlooked.
Terry Kent
Career record to date:
If training, like most vocations, is "a young man's game", nobody told Terry Kent, and good luck to him for that. Kent doesn't yet have the patronage of the other names in this list, and he's arguably the biggest 'flyer' in this five to follow, but his CV is impressive.
Now 53, Kent was originally an apprentice jockey with the late Michael Jarvis before spending most of two decades as part of the Godolphin operation, principally with David Loder. After that, he returned to Kremlin House Stables where Roger Varian, formerly assistant to Jarvis, took over after his passing and installed Kent as his assistant.
Having saddled his first runner from the boxes he rents at Frankland Lodge Stables in Newmarket just two months ago - and achieved a winner with his fourth - he is ahead of Ferguson and Boughey at this nascent stage in his new career. Whether he can spring forward as that pair have seems less likely, but it ought to pay to follow his small string of about a dozen in the coming months.
Joseph Parr
Career record to date:
Apparently, Joseph Parr's granddad, Alan Bailey, told him to steer well clear of applying for a trainer's license. Kids, eh? They rarely listen to their elders, and that's not always a bad thing. Not so far, in this case, at least.
Parr, who remarkably is not just the fourth Newmarket trainer on this list but also shares the Frankland Lodge yard with Terry Kent, had only sent out three runners when the pandemic paused proceedings. But that hadn't prevented him from breaking his duck with Clem A, formerly trained by gramps, on the trainer's second day at the track with a license.
Since the resumption, Parr has added another four wins from 15 starts, including three-in-a-row earlier this month. He and Kent will doubtless feed off each other in the coming months as they press their respective careers forward.
Gearoid O'Loughlin
National Hunt career record to date:
And now, as they say, for something completely different. We head out of Newmarket, out of Britain, and away from the flat to an Irish National Hunt trainer who could make waves this coming campaign... and he may even have a live outsider for a shallow-looking Champion Hurdle next March.
O'Loughlin has been training for two years, sending out his inaugural winner at the 16th attempt on the 10th January 2019, when Sidetracked took the honours in a maiden hunter chase at Clonmel. His second win as a trainer came in a maiden hurdle at the same venue but, a year later with three more winners on the board, O'Loughlin was celebrating a higher profile and big-priced success in the Ulster National at Downpatrick with the Chris Jones-owned Space Cadet.
Jones, who enjoyed dual Cheltenham Festival success with Klairon Davis and more recently landed a touch in the Fred Winter with the high-class flat filly, What A Charm, entrusts his string to O'Loughlin now; since so doing he's not only been rewarded with the Ulster National score but has also seen his Mitchouka, formerly with Gordon Elliott, revitalised to win a beginners' chase.
However, the horse about which Jones must be most excited is surely Cedarwood Road, a big lumbering brute of a teenager about to become a man in 2020/21. I hope. I've backed him to win the Champion Hurdle at 100/1 you see. There's a better than fair chance he either proves not good enough or takes a different path to top honours this term; but his trainer's patience has been rewarded first with a facile eleven-length score in a 25-runner maiden hurdle on Boxing/St Stephen's Day, and most recently with a snug triumph in Listed company. He has a stone and more to find to be a genuine Blue Riband contender but, with just four runs to his belt, this five-rising-six-year-old son of Stowaway has all the attributes to progress through the ranks.
O'Loughlin meanwhile is the fifth man in my quintet of handlers to follow, and offers some variety to the spice of Newmarket life.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GeorgeBoughey.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2020-08-17 14:44:332020-08-17 14:44:33Class of 2020: Five New Trainers To Note
5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong)
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...
This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...
I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.
And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...
from which there has been...
16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...
...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...
...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/SotDimage.jpg320830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-08-17 07:05:312020-08-17 07:42:18Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020
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