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Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

14 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th September 2020

13 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Well, what a week that was. And not in a good way, I'm afraid. Two placers from five is pretty poor going and only one runner actually looked like winning which just isn't good enough for our purposes.

I should clarify, I suppose. SotD is NOT a tipping service per se, but more of a way of finding a way into a race via stats and more importantly the Geegeez racecards. The aim is to find a runner that will perform better than the price available would suggest it will and by the large we've done that over the past 9 years or so.

However, we're here and it's now and the current status is that September is proving to be a struggle for me, as was July & August. I know in my heart that it won't continue forever and we'll be back amongst the winners in due course, but the bare facts are that all of 2020's profit has disappeared now and in mid-September, we're back to square one.

I'm down, but not yet beaten and I'll be picking myself up to go again tomorrow. Hopefully you'll be with me.

Chris

Selections & Results : 07/09/20 to 12/09/20

07/09 : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner
08/09 : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2
09/09 : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
10/09 : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
11/09 : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1
12/09 : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1

07/09/20 to 12/09/20 :
0 winning bet from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

September 2020 :
1 winner from 10 = 10.00% SR
P/L: -6.50pts
ROI = -65.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 147 = 18.37% SR
P/L: +0.31pts
ROI = +0.21%

Overall:
683 winners from 2611 = 26.16% SR
P/L: +532.18pts
ROI: +20.38%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Do The Bookies Have The Wrong 3yo Favourites In The Doncaster Opener?

11 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

The Portland Handicap was the obvious race to cover for Saturday but it would be very much a case of throwing a few darts at that race and you could feasibly back a horse that is beaten half a length and it could still be unplaced so instead I’m going to cover the 1.15 at Doncaster which gets underway before the ITV cameras begin rolling at Doncaster.

This is a mile handicap for 3yos and above and with twelve runners set to go to post it will hopefully be a lot easier to find the winner than the Portland Handicap later on in the card. Once again I’ll be mostly concentrating on ‘hot form’, a deeper dive into the strength of each horse’s form to date.

The Runners

King Ottaker

Mostly contested group races so far and only wins to date have been on soft ground. Arguably his best run to date was in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and he hasn’t run particularly well in all three runs this season, all of which were over 10f on softer ground. It would be a surprise if he was competitive here off 102 back at a mile on drying ground.

Teston

Started the season off with a surprise 6 length win over course and distance at 20/1 and has raced twice in France since. That win was admittedly impressive but he beat very little that day with thirty-six runs from those in behind since and just six places (no wins). He’s gone up 11lbs for that victory and he probably left his chance of further handicap sucess this season behind with that victory and the inevitable hike in the weights that followed it.

Another Touch

Put together a hat trick of wins on the all weather over the winter but has since found a triple figure rating beyond him. He’s now dropped to a mark of 98, his highest winning rating on turf, but he needs to return to form having been beaten 10 lengths at York last time out off a 5lb higher mark when sent off 100/1. That race was a hot contest to be fair with the 2^nd filling the same spot in a Group 2 next time, the 3^rd winning a Group 3 on his next start and the 6^th winning a handicap easily on his next run. The 8^th also franked the form with a 2^nd next time but Another Touch was 6 lengths behind even that runner so can’t be considered similarly well handicapped.

Firmanent

Was a half a length behind Another Touch last time out at his beloved York, the first below par run he’s ever put in at that venue. His very best form seems to have come at York but he was 2^nd at Meydan earlier this year over this distance off a 1lb higher mark so isn’t hopelessly handicapped at other courses.

He’s also 1lb lower than his 4^th at Newcastle in June in a race that has worked out supremely well.

The winner of that race, Sir Busker, has since gone up 19lbs in the ratings, the runner up, Dark Vision, has risen 12lbs. Meanwhile the 3^rd, Fifth Position, won his next start and is now 5lbs higher. Firmanent was just 0.75 lengths behind Fifth Position so is on a workable mark having dropped 1lb since then.

His last run is a worry as it was a rare blip but it’s worth noting that was Sean Kirrane’s first ride on the horse and he was ridden more prominently than usual which might help explain things. If none the worse for that effort he could run well here.

Magical Morning

Beaten over 8 lengths on his penultimate start and over 16 lengths on his latest run but represents Gosden/Dettori so sure to have some supporters. He won a novice stakes impressively on seasonal debut but a 4 length beating of Mayfair Pompette (struggling in handicaps off 74) in receipt of 6lbs isn’t worthy of a handicap rating of 97 here. He followed that up with another novice win here, over course and distance. On that occasion he was a length ahead of Dreamloper, giving her 12lbs, and she’s since won off 85 which helps explain Magical Morning’s lofty rating.

His first poor run came on rain softened ground at Newmarket in a listed race which gives him an excuse for that and his next flop came on his first try over 10f at Goodwood. He did run like a non stayer that day but didn’t run like a horse ready to strike when back in trip.

This handicap mark isn’t beyond him based on his sole run at this venue and perhaps the return here could revive his fortunes and the drop back in trip should definitely suit but he still needs to prove his well being.

Misty Grey

One of two runners for Mark Johnston. He made a belated seasonal debut just a week ago at Kempton, keeping on well in what is likely to turn out to be a strong race. He met some trouble early in the straight and shaped as though he’d definitely improve for the run. He was ridden closer to the pace last year so the fact that he was held up in last at Kempton suggests that run was definitely designed to bring him on.

As is often the case with one from this stable, he had a busy juvenile campaign with nine runs and he was highly tried (less than 5 lengths behind Golden Horde in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood).

He’s run at Doncaster before, finishing a nose behind Lazuli in a 3 runner conditions race. That runner has scored easily at listed level this season whilst Brad The Brief, 1.75 lengths back in 3^rd, has also won a listed race this season. He looks well enough handicapped to win a race this season and is likely to be seen to better effect ridden closer to the pace this time.

Aweedram

Returned in good form this season after losing his way last year. His 2^nd to Alternative Fact at Haydock in July off a 5lb lower mark has been well enough advertised since with every runner from the first 6 who has run since at least placing subsequently.

He’s not the most straight forward though, has shown his best form on softer ground and is having his first run for Kevin Frost having left Alan King since his last run. He’ll be of more interest later in the season back on softer ground.

Matthew Flinders

The most lightly raced contender in this field, he was a fairly warm order dropping back to a mile last time out at Sandown and ran well enough in 3rd, beaten less than a length. He raced a bit wider than ideal on that occasion but didn’t seem to have any obvious excuses. Grove Ferry, 5^th that day, has since finished 3^rd but did look as though he’d improve for the run at Sandown and a similar comment applies to Raaeq (a head in front of Matthew Flinders last time) who won comfortably on Friday with the better ground suiting when successful.

He’s up 2lbs and entitled to be competitive once again with the form of his last race beginning to work out well but both of the runners who have boosted the form were entitled to improve a fair bit on their next starts. He is clearly not badly handicapped but I do have a feeling he is only fairly handicapped. It's not a shock that he's the early favourite but he doesn't look a value play.

Overwrite

He’s been fairly consistent all season, running as though this mile trip is his optimum when not quite getting home in four attempts over further. His mile form stands up pretty well, he lost a class 2 handicap to Tempus in the stewards’ room in August and Tempus has come out and won again since. His limitations were slightly exposed on his next start in a big field of unexposed 3yos at York when 6^th, 4.25 lengths behind La Trinidad who reopposes here.

He’d be perfectly entitled to finish around 3^rd or 4^th here but no reason why he should reverse the form with La Trinidad and vulnerable for win purposes once again racing 7lbs higher than his last win.

Diocles Of Rome

Bit of an eyecatcher here over a furlong shorter last time out on seasonal debut in a decent race, being outpaced when a slow early gallop lifted before staying on really well late on. The winner, just 0.75 lengths in front of him that day, finished a close 2^nd next time off a 2lb higher mark.

Ghlayoon, 2^nd in that race, was a better than the bare result 3^rd on Friday and Breanski (6^th) finished 3^rd here this week when probably inconvenienced by a drop back in trip on that occasion. So whilst this race hasn’t thrown up subsequent winners yet, those that have run have each emerged as pretty much the best horse in their respective races.

This is his first run over a mile in over 2 years and it’s impossible to say if all his improvement since has come because he dropped back in trip or because he was gelded ahead of that drop back in trip. On the face of it he shaped as if needing further last time but the early gallop was steady that day and given he can be keen in his races he’d be a safer bet in a well run 7f.

Other than his recent close 5^th here he previously won by 2 lengths at Doncaster so clearly goes well at the track.

Sandret

After winning on his sole appearance at this track, over 2f further, he’s largely struggled.. He’s been tried over 12f this season (failed to stay) and now has his first run over a mile in 13 months.

The winner of his last race, when he was beaten over 5 lengths into 5^th, has remarkably since won a Group 1 (Audarya). It would be best not to take that literally and instead look what the rest of the field have done since. The 3^rd, What’s The Story, ran okay back at his favoured York whilst the 4^th, Dark Jedi, has finished runner up in two good races since. Sandret was 2.5 lengths behind Dark Jedi though and arguably the best gauge of his handicap mark is Cockalorum who was a short head behind him and has run twice since. Cockalorum finished 4^th on both subsequent starts running pretty well in a big York handicap before not being quite in the same form next time out.

Sandret’s last run was a fairly good one, certainly better than it looked, and a 2lb drop gives him half a chance of being competitive at a price (around 16/1 at the time of writing). His last run at a mile was off a 5lb lower mark and he was beaten on the nod by a nose by Romola who has since rated a stone higher so he’s certainly not a no hoper, but he’ll need a strong pace to aim at.

La Trinidad

An improved performer at 3 having shown very little last year as a juvenile. He won comfortably over 8.5f on his seasonal debut and the horse to get closest to him on that day and have run since was Phoenix Approach who won two runs later. He followed that win up with an easy 5 length win here at Doncaster (7f), a victory that saw him rise 12lbs in the handicap. The 3^rd from that race has won twice since but there have been a fair few poor efforts too.

He remained at 7f at York on his next two starts, presumably finding good to soft ground too testing on the first of those when fairly well beaten before getting within 2 lengths of Brunch back on faster ground.

Brunch, Black Caspian and La Trinidad all met again next time out at York over a mile, finishing in the exact same placings as they did over 7f previously. Jumaira Bay ran to form next time winning a maiden (2^nd in that maiden came out and won by 8 lengths) so the form of these runners stacks up. Even the 7^th , 8^th,and 9th have both come out and placed.

You could argue that the form of La Trinidad took a few knocks on Thursday. Jumaira Bay and Black Caspian both ran relatively poorly but Jumaira Bay was sporting first time headgear that looked likely to not suit and all of Black Caspian’s best form has been at York. Also Eastern World, who was 2.5 lengths behind La Trinidad over a mile at York, ran poorly but he too had first time headgear on and was dropping back a furlong so it’s understandable he didn’t run to form. It’s fair to say this isn’t ideal for La Trinidad but with the valid excuses it’s not a major concern either.

La Trinidad was the one to take out of the mile handicap won by Brunch at York. He was held up in last and denied a run from 2.5f out to 1.5f out but he flew once in the clear and is probably unlucky not to be unbeaten over further than 7f this season. He’s up 4lbs for that effort and it would be no surprise to see similar hold up tactics employed again, but probably with more success over this straight mile in a smaller field.

Draw and Pace

With only 12 runners here the draw isn’t going to completely make or break any of them.

All metrics point towards a middle draw being advantaged but a low draw not being far off. High drawn runners have performed really poorly on good ground over a mile in this sort of field size. Jockeys seem to have preferred to go near side in a lot of races this week when possible but you get similar data regarding high being a disadvantage on both good to firm ground and good to soft ground so I’m inclined to think a middle draw is definitely going to be ideal.

A few runners in this race are going to want a decent pace to aim at so let’s check out a pace map.

There is every chance Teston and Overwrite take each other on up front. There is also a good chance that Misty Grey is ridden much closer to the pace this time, he led on three of his final five runs last season, but you’d assume Mark Johnston wouldn’t want both his runners cutting each other’s throats. Magical Morning’s best form has also come when on or near the pace so expect to see him close up.

With most of the pace drawn central they’ll almost certainly elect to come up the centre of the track.

Verdict

You could make some sort of case for many. Magical Morning has too many question marks and I expected much bigger than 7/2 on him so he looks no value at all. I respect Matthew Flinders but also suspect he isn’t as well handicapped as many think he is so I’m going to put a line through him too. If Matthew Flinders is successful be sure to put First Winter and Zegalo into your tracker as both were close up in his last race.

There are some trip question marks over Diocles Of Rome and Sandret. Don’t be surprised if the latter massively outruns his odds but in a race with some solid contenders both are too risky. Diocles will remain of interest over 7f.

Overwrite is very much exposed and very vulnerable for win purposes. His stable mate Misty Grey was ridden to pick up the pieces last time and whilst he’s of some interest, this may be too strong a race for him. Look out for that runner in a slightly less competitive contest or if his Kempton run begins to work out.

That leaves La Trinidad and Firmanent as most interesting. Firmanent needs to bounce back from a rare poor run but reverting to hold up tactics here should help. The very early 25/1 offered on him looked far too big and even the 20/1 available at the time of writing looks a mistake.

Firmanent finishes 2^nd twice as often as he wins though and he’s never won a handicap away from York so whilst he is likely to run well in defeat, it is La Trinadad who is drawn in the centre stall who gets the vote. He hasn’t run a bad race on ground that is good or better this season, those runs have all worked out pretty well and he should probably be undefeated at this distance this season. He has a course win to his name and should definitely rate higher this season. At an early 11/2 he looks a very fair each way bet in this contest.

2020/21 Football Season Preview

7 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

It's time for my once a year public foray into footballing waters, the purpose being to strike a familiarly-shaped wager. Familiar to longer-suffering readers, at least.

Each season since 2016, I've constructed a £50 perm trixie (seven bets, total stake £350) comprised of:

- a team to be relegated from the Premier League

- a team to be promoted from either the Championship or League One

- one or both of two teams to be promoted from League Two

I like the shape of this bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly, promotion offers the hope (and hedge opportunity) of the playoffs; and secondly, League Two has three automatic promotion spots as well as a playoff consolation down to seventh place. That makes for engagement long into the season even if we've picked fairly moderately!

Last Season - yuk!

Speaking of moderate picking, last season was just that. I opted for the following:

- Brighton to be relegated from EPL (15th, comfortably stayed up)

- Portsmouth for League 1 promotion (5th, 2 points off second (auto), lost in playoffs)

- Plymouth for League 2 promotion (3rd, promoted)

- Mansfield for League 2 promotion (21st, hopeless!)

In truth, if Pompey hadn't started so desperately, they'd have got the one extra win they needed for automatic promotion, and I/we would have been celebrating a P-mouth promo double, paying 8.75/1 and clearing a small profit on the ticket. If...

Previous seasons

In previous seasons, the results have generally been a bit more favourable.

2018/19 got Lincoln promoted as winners (2/1) and Huddersfield relegated as wooden spooners (5/4) for a 5.75/1 double. Sunderland's position as playoff favourites enabled a hedge for the full trixie (Notts County were relegated, having been nominated for promotion, as the other leg of the League 2 component!). So it was a profitable losing bet, thanks to that playoff safety blanket.

Jackpots and jigger all

2017/18 was a blowout but 2016/17 was a jackpot year, and in style:

Sunderland to be relegated from Premier League: finished bottom

Newcastle to be promoted from the Championship: won the league

Portsmouth and/or Plymouth to be promoted from League Two: finished 1st and 2nd

This paid out £3,770 for my stakes, and pays for nine losing seasons!

2020/21 Picks

So much for the past, what of the future?

Premier League relegation

This market is always made by the promoted clubs who often out-perform expectations. The most outstanding recent example was Sheffield United last term, a side expected to finish bottom but who finished in the top half, twenty points clear of the drop.

There is a good chance that one or both of West Brom and Fulham will yo-yo back down again - both have a recent history of so doing - but Leeds look set to stay up having been clear best last term and invested well (Rodrigo from Valencia looks a 'steal' from the bigger boys, and the German international defender, Koch, also catches the eye).

The two worst teams not to drop last season - on xG at least, whose chickens tends to come home to roost sooner or later - were Newcastle and Aston Villa. While Newcastle have been busy shoring up their midfield with the solid signing of Jeff Hendrick, it is the business that is expected to complete early this week which offers confidence they'll improve this term. Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson are a proven double act who will fit into the Steve Bruce model seamlessly. Their partnership at Bournemouth two seasons ago was one of the all-time greats in terms of productivity, and bringing the pair in together offers an immediate settling effect for both. [Stop press: Wilson signing is confirmed]

Jamal Lewis is expected from Norwich, too, and he was as exciting a young attacking full-back as there was in the division last campaign.

The Magpies were fairly resilient at the back last season (seventh poorest conceded figure) and could be more fun to watch going forwards in 2020/21.

Wilson was snatched from Villa, whose slightly higher bid was withdrawn when they heard the player preferred Newcastle. Herein lies the midlands club's challenge: they're not terribly appealing to players. Last year's foreign legion scrambled enough results to survive on the last day, at the expense of Bournemouth - sob - but I'm not remotely convinced they will survive again.

The addition of Matty Cash from Forest could help bolster a porous back line, but they were terribly moderate going forwards. The exception, of course, was the mercurial Jack Grealish, a player linked with plenty of clubs though without the substance of an actual bid at this time. He's likely to want away and a team that almost got relegated with Grealish is an obvious contender for the trap door without their talisman. Oh, and they're dreadful away.

The price as ever, 2/1, makes the play. Actually, 15/8 on my ticket, as you'll see in a minute.

League One Promotion

A tricky old division this season, but one where, once again, Sunderland make the market for no obvious reason. They've signed nobody and are currently being linked with a 35-year-old ex-player: should be ideal for a 46 game season with Cups on top. They finished eighth as favourites last year, though were only three points off second in that truncated Covid-19-affected season.

The team for my funds finished on the same points as the Black Cats and missed the playoffs, like Sunderland, on points per game at the pause of play, though they were the form team as the virus stopped everything. Peterborough will have to do it without their main man, Ivan Toney, who is a class player and looks set to advance Brentford's push for the top division having recently swapped clubs for about ten million quids.

Still, the Posh have plenty of depth. The signing of Jonson Clarke-Harris from Bristol Rovers looks positive: he scored 24 in 42 games in his shortish stint for Rovers and, while it asks a chunk of any player to replace Toney, Clarke-Harris has a proven eye for goal and will get plenty of service. He joins Mo Eisa, who can already boast a one-in-two goal record for Posh across 29 games last term.

Sammie Szmodics was an important loanee last season, from Bristol City, and if the chat about his return has any substance they'll be the team to beat. Even if it doesn't, they ought still to offer a very good run for the pennies. 7/2 is generous.

The relegated Championship teams all look to have off-field problems in a year when administration is sadly bound to be a headline in places across the lower tiers.

League Two Promotion

I'll take two bites of the League Two cherry. The first is the least inspired pick on my ticket: Bolton. They've been through the wringer in recent seasons, playing much of the early part of last term with journeymen and juniors, and were not always able to fulfil their fixtures such was the paucity of squad depth. The drop was inevitable though there was a late season rally prior to a points deduction which rendered such on-field valiance academic.

A new season brings a new dawn. Manager Ian Evatt achieved incredible things with Barrow, now a fellow League Two side, and will have a blank canvass upon which to paint his vision. Eoin Doyle looks a great signing up front, having scored 25 goals in 28 games in this division last season.

Evatt's big task will be to mould a new squad into a cohesive eleven and overlay his playing blueprint pronto. That was a mission that did for Notts County (relegated) two season back, and I'm aware that for many this will not look like a value play.

But, with the prospect of financial meltdown seemingly averted for the time being, players, staff and management will be able to focus exclusively on improving the 53% (10 from 19) record of divisional favourites getting promoted this century*. That makes 5/4, arguably and just about, value in a bet like this. They'll be an interesting watch regardless of outcomes.

*Stat courtesy of welovebetting.co.uk

The second name on the League Two ticket is a much more reliable - ostensibly, at least - if less exciting collective, Cheltenham Town. Their progress last term was predicated on defensive soundness espoused by their manager, and former 300-match Cheltenham centre back (as well as Championship Manager legend back in the day!), Michael Duff. Having plied his trade formatively in the west country, he then spent a dozen years at Burnley where he will have further honed the art of grinding out results - and I write that most respectfully.

At the cessation of play last season, Cheltenham had conceded just 25 goals in 36 games, a streak which included only six losses. Playoff heartache followed, but Duff is expected to be able to lift his team for an automatic promotion push this time around having added experienced League One players Andy Williams, Matty Blair and Liam Sercombe to a settled squad. Further depth comes from a trio of young loan signings, providing a balanced blend of legs and brains.

The loss of Ryan Broom to Peterborough is the only notable departure meaning that, while the Robins may not be the most free-flowing side in the division, they'll generally be taking points from games. As a season ticket holder, I'd tolerate that; as a punter, it's absolutely ideal! 3/1 seems good value with three places and the playoffs down to seventh.

The 2020/21 Wager

So that's where this season's hopes lie: in the northwest, the midlands, the southwest and the east - all four corners of our fine lands on one ticket.

Betway, with whom I've long been unable to back horses for more than the price of a bag of crisps, have kindly accepted a more substantial stake on these seasonal outcomes.

The lowest possible return off the ticket would be Bolton/Villa which pays a touch under 11/2, so not quite money back. But, as we've seen above, if any other team makes the playoffs, there's a chance to hedge to profit even from there. Any other double will produce a small profit.

Of course, we still have to get two of these eventualities to come to pass!

Looking on the bright side, an all correct trixie involving Bolton would return £2,932.03, while if Cheltenham joined them in the promotion slots, and both Posh and Villa obliged, the best outcome possible is £6,994.52.

Seven grand for £350 makes the maths easy: it's a 20/1 possible return, including stake, with plenty of (granted, somewhat precarious) safety nets built in.

A £35 stake delivers a possible £700 return, and £3.50 gets the chance to cheer for £70. That's assuming you don't think the above is outright claptrap, which of course it very well might be.

But it's eight months of fun for one up-front investment, and I've laid it out, potential warts and all, to be shot at. Caveat emptor, natch!

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Monday Musings: Weird Ky Derby Looks Authentic!

7 September 2020/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

It’s been a topsy-turvy world for everyone this year, writes Tony Stafford. I bet the connections of Tiz The Law, 7-10 favourite for Saturday night’s re-scheduled Kentucky Derby, run in 2020 as the second rather than first leg of the Triple Crown, wished the race had simply been erased from the schedules. Instead it took place in September rather than the first Saturday in May and the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic outstayed the favourite for a memorable sixth win in the race for his silver-haired trainer.

The Americans have not found it within their powers to re-write the programme books as their European counterparts did to keep their Classic races, if not to the normal schedule, certainly in the prescribed order.

The Stateside authorities changed the distance and position of the Belmont Stakes, but kept it in June, racing having resumed over there a good deal earlier in some jurisdictions than others and well before France, the UK and Ireland in that order.

The Belmont, normally the last leg and over a mile and a half of the biggest oval in North America was reduced in distance to nine furlongs. The Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz The Law was untroubled to beat nine rivals there and extend his career stats to five wins in six starts. He embellished it further with a facile win in the Travers Stakes – normally the August date which identifies the summer champion among the three-year-old colts – two months and more after the Belmont.

By the time the three-race, five-week war of attrition is concluded on that June afternoon in New York, normally most of the Classic generation that managed to keep all three dates are on their knees. It takes a good one to survive it.

Two years ago, Justify was Baffert’s fifth winner of the race and his second to complete the generally-elusive Triple Crown. The Belmont, following the Preakness two weeks after the Derby and then the race in New York three weeks further on, proved to be within Justify’s capabilities, but no more. His career came to a full stop after a training injury soon after, but at least he could be retired as an unbeaten winner of the Triple Crown with six out of six on his scorecard.

Three years earlier Baffert was immediately denied an unbeaten campaign for American Pharoah once he was beaten on debut in a maiden the previous autumn. But by the time he’d won his Triple Crown, his tally was seven for eight, with all bar one of the wins in Grade 1 company – the exception a first-time three-year-old cruise in a Grade 2 to get the competitive juices flowing again.

He was tough, too. He won the Haskell Invitational in early August at Monmouth Park, but then as so many before him, got beat in the Travers at Saratoga, for good reason known as the Graveyard race for Triple Crown race winners or Horse of the Year candidates. He bounced back after a sensible break with an impressive win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before drawing stumps and preceding his younger fellow TC hero into stud duties at Ashford Farm.

I was on hand – for the only time - to see Baffert’s third Kentucky Derby win in 2002 with War Emblem in the green and white stripes of Prince Ahmed Salman’s Thoroughbred Corporation. That 20-1 chance made all the running. Baffert had already sent out Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet the following year to score. I’ve no doubt that having put away Tiz The Law in a thrilling set-to up the Churchill Downs home straight, many would have been hoping to see them do battle again at Pimlico racecourse in Baltimore for the Preakness, but immediate post-race reaction suggested one or even both might miss the final leg.

That race, normally run two weeks after the Derby but this year four, unlike the Belmont but in common with the Derby, has retained its traditional distance of one mile and three-sixteenths. This was the course and distance over which California-based Seabiscuit memorably beat the East Coast champion War Admiral, the 1937 Kentucky Derby winner, in that famed match race. This of course was made doubly treasured by Laura Hillenbrand’s book and the film in which Tobey Maguire and Gary Stevens – as good and natural an actor as he has been for so many years an outstanding jockey – played the roles as the great underdog’s jockeys.

As they turned for home in that 1938 race, the big favourite War Emblem had drawn upsides and most of the massive crowd expected him to pull away. Instead it was Seabiscuit, who had become a much-loved symbol of the American working class in those Depression years, who gained the upper hand: courage and toughness outpointing class and evidently superior breeding.

Saturday’s Classic was virtually a re-make of the Seabiscuit film. Two horses came around the long turn between the back stretch and the home run with the favourite poised on the outside and the rest clearly irrelevant. Authentic had moved quickly from an ordinary start into an early lead from his wide position, so it was reasonable watching live to think he could be swamped when Tiz The Law, always well placed, came with his customary wide run to take his rightful place at the top of the podium.

But as with Seabiscuit, this relative underdog, third favourite at a shade over 8-1, kept going much the better for a length and a quarter success.

Going into the race, Authentic, like the favourite, had suffered only a single reverse, in his case behind Honor A P in the Santa Anita Derby, turning over an earlier result between the pair. Understandably, Honor A P edged him for second best in the Derby market, but there can be no doubting the pecking order now, as Honor A P finished five lengths behind the winner in fourth.

A smaller-than-usual field contested the race this year. Normally it’s a bun-fight to qualify for one of the 20 available stalls. This time, only 15 turned up, reflecting that there are fewer untested dreams at this stage of the season from later-developing horses than is customary. What I did notice, possibly because of the smaller field and the fact that the runners have had more racing experience than is customary, hard-luck stories seemed minimal.

Also it was one of the fastest-ever Kentucky Derbys, the winner clocking 2 minutes 0.61 seconds. Secretariat in 1973 still holds the all-time best with 1 minute 59.4 seconds in his Triple Crown year. Monarchos in 2001 has the fastest electronic time, while in 1964 Northern Dancer, the ultimate sire of sires, most significantly the direct line, from his son Sadler’s Wells through to Galileo and then Frankel and the rest, clocked an even 2 minutes.

Other fast times were Spend A Buck, 2.00.2 in 1985 and Decidedly 2.00.4 in 1962. Authentic, with only five faster than him is right up there in historical terms, certainly in front of Baffert’s previous quintet, the less attritional, more even-tempo nature of the race – on a track that was riding fast – doubtless contributing.

Many times, beaten Kentucky Derby runners avoid the Preakness entirely. This year, of the nine horses beaten by Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown, only two – neither in the shake-up on Saturday – tried again.

It would be eminently understandable should either or both the big two miss the Preakness in four weeks’ time. A great shame too as if they did clash they would surely provide another proper shoot-out. Considering, though, how much money is on offer for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the autumn and how easily future stallion fees can be affected by reverses, maybe it’s more likely that we’ll have to wait for a definitive verdict of the Horse of the Year - Covid19 edition!

While the Kentucky Derby was taking all the attention over the water, Enable was fulfilling presumably her last public duties in the UK (she still has entries on British Champions’ Day – here’s hoping) before embarking on her final act of an epic career when easily landing the odds (1-14 are hardly odds!) in the September Stakes at Kempton Park.

She was quickly into the lead under Frankie Dettori and won easily from Kirstenbosch, owned by Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud. Lightly-raced and on the comeback trail after an interrupted career, Kirstenbosch looks sure to win more races for the James Fanshawe stable.

Meanwhile Enable will be preparing for her ultimate quest, aiming to add a third Arc win after last year’s agonising second to Waldgeist, interestingly on the same weekend as the Preakness. Dettori has been a fitting co-respondent in the mare’s final glorious chapter along with trainer John Gosden. How typical in sport that a younger rival has come along from out of nowhere – well, Ballydoyle! - to make this possibly the toughest of all her four challenges for the famed French race that has become the true European championship.

Love stands in her way, gloriously after three authoritative and sometimes wide margin wins at Group 1 level in the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. I suppose there will be other challengers, but nobody loves a two-man (or woman) sporting tussle more than the viewing public. I’d love Enable to win but I don’t think Love will enable her to do so. If you see what I mean!

On an otherwise quiet weekend domestically, Haydock Park’s Group 1 race, the Betfair Sprint Cup, developed into a battle of the six-year-old geldings. The 5-2 favourite Dream Of Dreams, ridden by Oisin Murphy for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, got up in the closing stages to beat the Archie Watson-trained and Hollie Doyle-ridden 25-1 chance Glen Shiel, the pair leaving the three-year-olds Golden Horde, Art Power and Lope Y Fernandez well behind. The same went for two previous winners, The Tin Man and Hello Youmzain.

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1302253464068788231

A race with rather more significance for the future was Yesterday’s Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on the first weekend since the racing roadshow decamped back from Deauville and its chewed-up terrain to the capital. Only six turned out, but it was a high-class affair. The Andre Fabre-trained Persian King (by Kingman) turned away Pinatubo by just over a length, with Circus Maximus a long way back in third but still ahead of Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Siskin who seems a shadow of the early-season version.

https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1302676690670243840

Persian King had been three lengths in arrears to Circus Maximus when they were third and fourth behind unbeaten Palace Pier in the Prix Jacques le Marois (also Group 1) three weeks earlier over the same trip at Deauville. This performance requires some re-alignment among the division, but it is clear that Palace Pier stands alone at the top of the mile rankings. Those three Irish fillies, Fancy Blue, Alpine Star and Peaceful, who dominated the finish of the Prix de Diane over the extended mile and a quarter at Chantilly, might prove more of a test to Palace Pier than any of yesterday’s Moulin contestants should they be given the opportunity to tackle him.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

7 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
2 wins from 3 in 2020
1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

SotD Update, 31st August to 5th September 2020

6 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

It's all a bit groundhog day again this week. It just seems to be one winner per week at present and sadly that proved to be the case again.

I'm frustrated/disappointed at the numbers of late, but I'm generally happy with the picks, as we're there or thereabouts most days. Poor tactics cost us an 8/1 winner on Monday and we'd a nice victory on Tuesday. Wednesday & Saturday saw us bag runners-up slots, whilst Thursday's runner unshipped his rider when going really well and to top it off, Friday's pick was undone by the Ascot draw.

These aren't excuses, they're facts, but the main over-riding fact is that we just didn't do well enough, so we'll try again this week!

Chris

Selections & Results : 31/08/20 to 05/09/20

31/08 : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3
01/09 : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
02/09 : Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1
03/09 : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2
04/09 : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2
05/09 : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8

31/08/20 to 05/09/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR
P/L: -3.88pts
ROI = -14.92%

September 2020 :
1 winner from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -1.50pts
ROI = -30.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 142 = 19.01% SR
P/L: +5.31pts
ROI = +3.74%

Overall:
683 winners from 2606 = 26.21% SR
P/L: +537.18pts
ROI: +20.61%

And here is the overview for 2019

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Grounds For Concern For Leading Superior Mile Runner

4 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

There are plenty of big handicaps on Saturday and we also have Group 1 action so it should be a great day for betting whatever your race type preference. This week I’m going to look at another one mile Group race, having previewed the Celebration Mile last week at Goodwood. This week it's the Group 3 Superior Mile (1.45pm) at Haydock.

I’ll be using Instant Expert once again for this race but it’s worth noting that there are some more lightly raced types in this race compared to last week which means there will be a few more unknowns.

The Going

The ground is going to be a hugely important factor here with underfoot conditions currently described as soft, heavy in places on Friday afternoon. It’s due to be a dry weekend so we’ll probably be look at soft ground all over.

To get as much data into Instant Expert as possible I’m going to include data from ground described anywhere between good to soft and heavy.

A few things initially stand out here. First of all Dark Vision has failed to place in all four starts on softish ground. He’d have half a chance on his best form but it looks as though a line can be put through this runner when there is cut in the ground.

Khaloosy and Kinross both have both encountered softer ground once and they both won those races.

Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar have both had plenty of experience in these kinds of conditions and both have strong records. Stormy Atlantic has placed in six of his eight runs on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy whilst Qaysar is three from five as far as placing is concerned. The pair both have three wins when the mud is flying.

The well fancied My Oberon and Top Rank are yet to run on softer than good whilst outsider Graignes is also an unknown as far as the ground is concerned.

For those that are yet to run on softer ground we can get an insight into their suitability for testing conditions by using Instant Expert to look at sire data.

Stormy Atlantic (Stormy Antarctic), Kingman (Kinross) and Dubawi (Khaloosy & My Oberon) all score well here and those sire stats aren’t contradicted by what we have seen from these offspring so far which is great. Comparatively the offspring of Dark Angel perform fairly poorly so Top Rank is far from guaranteed to enjoy these conditions.

Class

My Oberon has run once and placed once in class 1 races. Stormy Antarctic is by far the most experienced of these at this level with fourteen runs and six places. Dark Vision has two places from six attempts in class 1 races so he’s had plenty of tries at this sort of level without much success. Another strike against that runner.

Qaysar and Top Rank both step up in class whilst Khaloosy has failed to place in his only run in a class 1 with Kinross failing to place in two attempts in class 1 races.

Course

Not much course form on offer here but a big tick for Qaysar who has placed in two runs from three here. Both of those places were actually victories.

Distance

Top Rank has been most consistent at a mile to date, placing in all five starts, which we know were all at a lower level than this. At the other end of the scale Kinross and Qaysar have not been as consistent at this trip.

Field Size

Top Rank and Khaloosy have both placed in their sole start in fields of this sort of size. We have much more data for Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar and Dark Vision who are clearly comfortable in these mid sized fields.

A Look At The Form

We have plenty of question marks still as we only have limited data for the more lightly raced contenders.

Doubts Over Top Rank and Kinross Justified?

Top Rank and Kinross are two runners who are on the brink of having a line put through them based on the results from Instant Expert. Top Rank was beaten by a length in a handicap off a mark of 103 last time out. He’s now rated 106 which leaves him with 8lbs to find on the top rated runner here. He is lightly raced so may still improve but he’ll need to do so on ground he’s unproven on so comes with plenty of risk attached for a 6/1 chance.

Kinross has form on this sort of ground but it’s difficult to weight up as it was a wide margin maiden win. He did beat the now 97 rated Raaeb by 8 lengths (in receipt of 6lbs) so it was a smart effort on that occasion. His two runs this season have come in Group 1 company and he hasn’t been totally disgraced, especially as those runs came on faster ground. He’ll need to improve for the return to this ground though and he’s as yet unproven in ground quite this soft so backers are taking plenty of chances.

The Shortlist

There is little form that suggests Graignes is going to win this and the ground looks against Dark Vision so we are currently left with:

Khaloosy
My Oberon
Stormy Antarctic
Qaysar

First let’s look at the more exposed pair of Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar. Stormy Antarctic has had an official rating between 111 and 114 for the past 4 years which means we should know exactly how good he is. Instant Expert has shown that he is a horse with an okay record in better class races that relishes cut in the ground. On heavy ground he has form figures of 112, on soft ground he has form of 114 and that defeat came at the hands of Roaring Lion in a Group 1. Even on good to soft ground at a mile his form figures are 10222 with that blowout coming in the 2000 Guineas.

He clearly loves this ground but how good is he? He’s the horse to beat according to official ratings, although there are several possible improvers in this line up. He’s won two of his three starts at Group 3 level over a mile. His defeat came earlier this year at the hands of Century Dream. He carried a Group 2 penalty that day (which he doesn’t have to shoulder here) and that was his first start in almost 12 months so 4^th was a decent enough effort. At Group 2 level at this trip he has finished 2^nd and 3^rd and the ground wasn’t quite as soft as he’d like on either occasion. He’s clearly good enough to win this sort of race and will be getting close to ideal conditions here.

Unlike Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar is completely unproven at this level. He’s improved each season though and is rated just 3lbs shy of Stormy Antarctic courtesy of winning a handicap over course and distance on testing ground by 4.25 length off a mark of 105. He’s failed to reproduce that form in two runs since but one of those runs was in a small field conditions race on fast ground and the other was in a York handicap off a mark of 111 and he was well enough beaten on his previous York run off a much lower mark. He’s probably not going to prove much better than his current rating but his best career run came here under similar conditions and a reproduction of that might see him reach the places.

Khaloosy and Oberon actually met last time in a Group 3 at Goodwood and My Oberon was 2.5 lengths in front of Khaloosy. My Oberon was also badly hampered by the winner so was value for further. Whilst My Oberon looked at home on the ground that day Khaloosy looked all at sea with the combination of fast ground and unconventional track clearly against him. Khaloosy is much better judged on his previous effort at Royal Ascot where he won the Britannia Handicap easily. That race has worked out well and beating Finest Sound (now rated 94) giving him 7lbs and a comfortable looking 4.5 length beating means he probably ran to a rating even higher than his current mark of 111 that day.

My Oberon has no soft ground form and although he’s bred to handle it, he’s previously been described by his trainer as ‘a fast ground horse’ so there have to be some reservations. Those same reservations don’t hang over Khaloosy whose sole run in testing conditions was by far his best.

Pace

We all know how important pace can be, especially in these smaller field races that can be run at a crawl on occasions. Here is the pace map for this race based on their last four runs:

As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this contest so those that are able to sit handily could be advantaged as could be those who have proven themselves to be a bit ‘speedier’. Stormy Antarctic stays further than this so he’d ideally want a strong test and many of Qaysar’s best efforts have come when held up, although he is tactically versatile. My Oberon has a nice race style for this sort of set up but the question mark over the ground remains. Khaloosy was held up at Ascot but those were the right tactics to employ on the day and he’s been ridden much more prominently in his other runs.

Verdict

Assuming Khaloosy isn’t just much better at Ascot, he deserves another chance here and after just 4 career starts he should be able to improve past the extremely solid yard stick that is Stormy Antarctic. Meanwhile Qaysar isn’t a terrible bet for a place and could fill 3^rd spot behind the other pair if things go to plan.

Monday Musings: Never Mind The (Gender) Gap

31 August 2020/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

Watch out Oisin, and for that matter Tom, Hollie’s on the prowl! The estimable Master Murphy might be a 6-1 on shot to retain his title in the 2020 Flat Jockeys’ Championship, but in the world of sport (yes Sky it’s sport not sports!) momentum is everything, writes Tony Stafford.

The 23-year-old pocket battleship already had one record on her growing honours board – I bet Mr Marquand has to look at it every day in their shared home in Hungerford – that of the 116 best-for-a-female wins in 2019. At Windsor on Saturday, while Tom was an hour and a half away at Newmarket drawing a blank from his five mounts (two favourites), Hollie had five memorable winners at Windsor. While the cat’s away, one might say.

Needless to say, this was the first time a female rider had ever ridden a five-timer on a single UK card. No doubt Julie Krone, the American who retired from professional race riding in 1999 when Hollie was barely two years old, will be aware that in this unassuming young lady, there are many similarities with herself.

In July 1992, the Daily Telegraph sports editor, in his wisdom, despatched me off to Redcar for a Wednesday night meeting that really did attract attention. The first race was the Julie Krone Maiden Stakes and, fittingly, the then 28-year-old Michigan-born sensation was duly set up with a winner. Al Karnack, an 11-2 on shot trained for Ecurie Fustok, major owners at the time, by Mohammed Mubarak, won by 20 lengths.

Four more rides followed, with two wins. I spoke to Ms Krone a few times during the event and, thinking back, like Hollie today, you were immediately struck by her small stature but most obviously the strength in her powerful broad shoulders. Picture Ms Doyle in five years’ time after many more hours in the gym and on the Equisizer and you will have Julie Krone mark 2.

Krone at that time was really about quantity, just as Hollie had been until the recent flurry of Listed and Group wins following her initial Royal Ascot success two months ago on the Alan King-trained Scarlet Dragon. At Windsor she collected two more stakes victories, a Listed on Hughie Morrison's Le Don De Vie and the Group 3 Gallagher Group Winter Hill Stakes on the Roger Charlton-trained Extra Elusive for her new retained boss, owner Imad Sagar. The following summer from that Redcar evening, in June 1993, Krone won her only Triple Crown race, the Belmont Stakes on Colonial Affair, highlight of her 3,704 career wins.

Both Hollie’s big winners and the other three that comprised her epic achievement owed as much to her ability to find a clear course on her mounts and the determination with which she sometimes contrives such a position through sheer willpower. On to Yarmouth yesterday, where three more victories followed and only bar narrow reverses by a short head and then, irritatingly, a nose, was a second five-timer within 24 hours foiled.

I noticed one race at Beverley on Thursday where the Archie Watson–trained Harrison Point looked in danger of being reeled in by Tony Hamilton on fast-finishing Zip. But as he came alongside, Hollie allowed her mount to edge slightly left, making her own mount’s mind up and possibly persuading the eventually runner-up to think again.

Watson of course, one of racing’s young innovators, was first to give more than a passing acknowledgement of the young rider’s potential – although Wilf Storey says he beat Archie to it! -, putting her on the majority of his flying juveniles painstakingly-schooled at home and often in barrier trials to show their form first time. She repaid that confidence by almost invariably getting them quickly away from the gate – a vital skill in sprints that many other riders find elusive. No names, as Mr Bolger might say.

At Windsor, on the rain-softened ground, Hollie identified the need to get to the favoured far rail, tailoring her tactics with that in mind. Every time she was first onto the far side, she stayed there until the finish. At Yarmouth, she made it to the front four times, and while it looked as though each of her mounts was vulnerable to a challenge from behind, it was only in the last stride that Jamie Spencer, on a typical last-to-first flourish on Ilalliqa could get to her on the Crisfords’ Late Arrival.

Her other near miss, Little Brown Trout, would have needed only another couple of strides to catch the Tom Queally-ridden Spirited Guest. Ten winners in two days surely would have been too much, for the racing world generally and especially for the boys at the top of the table.

Momentum in the Jockeys’ Championship race can be vital. Oisin Murphy, at 6-1 on might seem uncatchable on 94 wins, bolstered by the first three at Goodwood yesterday, but he has an eight-day suspension to serve out which means he misses the St Leger meeting this week. Ben Curtis, more annoyingly for another of the go-to men for big southern stables when their horses head north for minor meetings, has an automatic 14-day exclusion for his ill-judged foray into the nowadays-sacrosanct owners’ area at Newmarket last week, breaching the strict - but of which many may now say - outdated Coronavirus rules.

Those rules, though, were the basis that racing was allowed to start and remain the cornerstone of its license to persist. Curtis’ mistake was that he chose to talk to the owner of the one horse he was going to ride at HQ, annoyingly a late switch because Hamilton was abandoned through waterlogging. As one trainer who uses Curtis’ talents said to me, “He could have arranged to meet him in the garage half an hour earlier, sat down and had a coffee, no problem.”

So, after a momentous weekend, after Murphy there’s a massive gap to William Buick (7-1) and Marquand (9-2) both on 70. Curtis is next on 63 with Doyle up to 60. She is almost certain to narrow the gap in the coming week given her present rate of progress and while talk of a championship this year might well be so much pie-in-the-sky, second place at the main expense of her partner Marquand looks entirely possible.

Tony Nerses, someone I’ve known for almost 40 years since the time he looked after the racing affairs of Prince Yazid Bin Saud, has been the power behind the upward mobility of Imad Sagar who, with Saleh Al Homaizi, owned Derby winner, Authorized. In recent years, Al Homeizi withdrew from their Blue Mountain stud operation, leaving Sagar to go it alone. Nerses was a constant factor throughout that time and the public face of the operation. I love his ads in the Racing Post when one of the Sagar horses wins a race, which say, purchase Authorized by Tony Nerses.

I’m sure he had more than a minor part in securing Hollie’s services. So far from only seven rides, she has recorded four wins including Group race success in the Rose of Lancaster at Haydock and Saturday’s big race both on Extra Elusive, yet another example of Roger Charlton’s skill in improving horses, along with the beneficial effect a gelding operation can bring.

The main issue here was that while Extra Elusive likes to go from the front, it was almost inevitable that he would be challenged for that position by the Mark Johnston candidate, Sky Defender. But instead of going head-to-head, Ms Doyle allowed Franny Norton to have the lead, tracking him a length behind before moving up on his outside to get the rail position she wanted after the point where the figure-of-eight crosses over. From there she was never going to be denied.

Earlier, on Hughie Morrison’s Le Don De Vie, she engineered a similar position at a crucial stage and the Australia-bound four-year-old won with some authority starting off what was to be a memorable weekend for the trainer.

Yesterday at Goodwood, his five-year-old mare Urban Artist, running for the first time in a handicap after winning her novice race at Windsor second time on the Flat, signalled a profitable future with an emphatic all-the-way win against some highly-regarded younger fillies. A couple of hours later Telecaster, continuing his French love affair with Christophe Soumillon, replicated the mare’s front-running exploits with a six-and-a-half length demolition of his Grand Prix de Deauville (Group 2) opponents.

Both horses are home-bred, Telecaster by the Weinfeld family’s Meon Valley stud and Urban Artist by the late Tim Billington. Morrison was very subdued when I spoke to him yesterday morning in advance of the Goodwood race. He said that Tim had died unexpectedly three weeks earlier. In all the debate about racing and its place in the world he said that Billington had paid £2,000 for yesterday’s winner’s fourth dam and she over time had been responsible for at least 30 winners and Tim, via his syndicates – “he couldn’t afford to own them outright himself” – had brought at least 50 people who would never have thought of owning a horse into the sport.

“That’s what it’s all about – or should be” said the trainer, who at the time could not have envisaged a better afternoon than the one he was to experience. Both yesterday’s winners are excellent examples of the value of continuity in racing and breeding. Telecaster is something like a sixth generation product of one of the two main Egon Weinfeld foundation mares, and the way he has progressed from somewhat flighty and disappointing Derby candidate last year to a potential Group 1 middle-distance winner as a four-year-old is testimony to his trainer’s patience and skill.

When Urban Artist was unsuccessfully tried last winter in a Newbury novice hurdle following two bumper wins (one Listed at Cheltenham) she was stepping outside her mother’s comfort zone. Urban Artist is only the second foal to race of Cill Rialaig. She too won two bumpers, one a Listed also at Cheltenham, but never raced over hurdles. Instead she went Flat racing and got into the 100’s while winning races among them at Royal Ascot. I remember her well, but I doubt she had quite the power of this talented mare who sluiced through the ground to complete the Oisin Murphy hat-trick with complete authority to suggest a big hike from her initial 80 is inevitable.

It was Hollie’s weekend though, so I make no excuse for returning briefly to Julie Krone, about whom it is sad to relate that she never rode again in the UK during her professional career. But to get an estimate of how talented she was, she did ride in two consecutive Legends’ races at the St Leger meeting. In 2011, a full 12 years after retiring, and at the age of 48 she came to Town Moor for the mount on Declan Carroll’s Invincible Hero who started 4-1 favourite in a field of 16. He won with ease. Third that day was George Duffield who had been the runner-up to Krone 19 years earlier when on Richard Whitaker’s Gant Bleu, a 9-1 shot, she rode her second winner. “Led on bit two out and stayed on well” was the close-up comment.

As I said at the start, for me Hollie Doyle is the new Julie Krone. It’s amazing to think that now with Hayley Turner, Josephine Gordon and Hollie, all in turn riders with 100-plus wins in a season on their record, and with a host of French female riders benefiting from their continued (if in the case of the UK trio, unnecessary) weight allowance, the first female champion is not far away. I think we know who that will be!

- TS

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020

31 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.00 Southwell :

Who?

Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

SotD Update, 24th to 29th August 2020

30 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

We had a great start to the week with a 5/1 winner and a 4/1 shot beaten by just a short head, but things went downhill from there. In fairness, Saturday's runner-up ran a decent race, but was well beaten by a better performer on the day.

The upshot is that we're back where we were last Sunday, -2.88pts for the month, but it makes the maths very simple. If Monday's runner fails to win, we lose 3.88pts on the month and if we're to make profit from August, we need a 3/1 (or bigger) winner.

The fact that Tuesday's narrow defeat could be the difference between success and failure for the month merely serves to highlight the very fine margins we have to work within every time we stick our neck out and recommend a horse.

Can/will I land a 3/1 winner tomorrow? Well, I certainly hope so!

Chris

Selections & Results : 24/08/20 to 29/08/20

24/08 : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1
25/08 : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
26/08 : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2
27/08 : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2
28/08 : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1
29/08 : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1

24/08/20 to 29/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -11.52%

2020 to date :
26 winners from 136 = 19.11% SR
P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +5.74%

Overall:
682 winners from 2601 = 26.22% SR
P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.74%

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Dream Conditions For Century In Celebration Mile

28 August 2020/in Big Race Previews, Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Soft ground seems to have scared many runners away this weekend leaving us with a day of largely smaller field races. The highest class race of the day is the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood and that’s going to be the focus of this article. One of the most popular features of Geegeez Gold is the ‘Instant Expert’ and I’m going to use the Instant Expert to gain a quick overview of the seven runners set to take part in this race.

Place Data

First let’s take a look at it from a place perspective:

Ground

I’ve set the going parameter to anything from good to soft down to heavy. We are probably going to be looking at soft, borderline heavy ground for this race but this should allow us to get more data. We can dig deeper into what specific going each horse has handled or not handled later.

It seems that Century Dream and Sir Busker stand out as two runners that not only handle cut in the ground, but relish it. Century Dream has had the most runs on testing ground and has impressively placed in seven of his ten runs. Sir Busker is next best with four placings from six runs on ground that is good to soft or softer.

There is limited evidence about Urban Icon’s ability to handle cut in the ground as he’s had just two runs in these conditions, placing in one of those.

Interestingly enough Regal Reality and Benbatl, the two early favourites have failed to place in over 50% of their races in this sort of going. Between them they’ve managed just three placings in nine starts. The only runners in this field to have never placed on softer ground are Duke Of Hazzard and Positive who seem to have been kept away from softer ground as often as possible and with good reason.

Class

Century Dream again comes out on top having placed in five out of eight runs in class 1 races. Duke Of Hazzard and Positive, who scored poorly on this ground, actually score very well here. That’s not a big help though if they don’t go on the ground.

Urban Icon, Regal Reality and Benbatl have poorer records in class 1 races but it’s worth remembering this will include anything from listed contests to Group 1 races and there can be more merit in finishing 4^th in a Group 1 than 1^st in a listed race. We’ll dig deeper into the race class later.

Sir Busker is the only one of these to be running in a class 1 race for the first time.

Course

At a course as unique as Goodwood course form is always a positive. There is one clear winner here and that is Duke Of Hazzard who has never been out of the frame in four starts. Sir Busker has placed in two of his three runs. It’s fair to say that no runner is this field has run poorly at this venue.

Distance

You’d expect most runners in a Group 2 to have a solid record over the race distance but it’s worth noting that the favourite here, Benbatl, has managed just one placing in five runs at a mile. This stat really stands out and along with the ground stats for Benbatl suggests he has a poor profile for this race.

Like Benbatl, Regal Reality is another who scored badly on this ground and also has a poor record over this distance whilst Urban Icon is another with a sub 50% placing ratio at a mile.

Century Dream continues to score well with the best ratio here having placed in 67% of his runs over a mile.

Field Size

Often an underrated criteria, many horses are better suited to bigger fields and others to smaller fields. Yet again Century Dream is looking good having placed in all his runs in field sizes of 7 or less.

The stand out here is Regal Reality’s record in small fields. He’s managed to place in just two of his eight runs in field sizes this small.

Placings Summary

Without having to dig deep into the form Instant Expert has shown us that Century Dream is the really solid horse in this race. Sir Busker also scores well in most categories but is unproven (having been untried) in this sort of company. Duke Of Hazzard looks pretty good but there are serious ground concerns.

At the other end of the scale, Benbatl and Regal Reality, look two of the riskier propositions despite their positions in the market.

Win Data

This is what Instant Expert looks like for win purposes. We are getting less data here but the data we do get should be more telling.

Once again Century Dream is coming out very well on all criteria except course as he is yet to run at Goodwood. Sir Busker is another who looks solid and a good proposition over a mile on testing ground at Goodwood. He’s yet to prove himself in this company and perhaps the biggest question mark for this horse is his ability to run well in smaller fields.

Duke Of Hazzard is interesting based on his course record of three wins from four starts. He also has a decent enough strike rate at this distance and in small fields. He’s had only one run on softer ground and finished unplaced so that’s the big unknown.

Early favourite Benbatl only really seems to have small field ability in his favour for win purposes whilst Regal Reality is unbeaten at Goodwood but other than that most of the elements that make up this race seem against him.

Positive scores poorly for wins in any of these circumstances except field size, and even a sole victory from three starts in small fields isn’t that great on the face of things. Meanwhile there is little evidence that Urban Icon will be at home in this race.

Digging Deeper

So far we have a very positive profile for Century Dream, a generally positive one for Sir Busker and a big ground question mark over Duke Of Hazzard. It also seems Benbatl and Regal Reality might be worth taking on.

Let’s first look at Duke Of Hazzard’s ground preference as he may be easy to rule out on that basis. Instant Expert is only able to look at runs from the UK and Ireland and a deeper look at Duke Of Hazzard’s form tells us he’s actually run three times on ground softer than good. Two of those runs were perhaps slightly below par but in Group 1 company so finishing unplaced wasn’t a disgrace. He also finished 2^nd in a listed race at Deauville on good to soft. It doesn’t look as though he’s hopeless on softer ground and he clearly goes very well at Goodwood but there has to be a suspicion he is at his best on fast ground and it will probably take a near career best to win this.

Are Benbatl and Regal Reality really no hopers in this race despite their odds? Benbatl is the highest rated runner in this field and has largely been contesting Group 1 races over the past few years so having more unplaced efforts isn’t the end of the world. Looking at the ground though, he has been beaten favourite on softer than good on three of his four starts in those conditions (and was well beaten over too far a trip on his other attempt). The worse the ground gets, the worse he performs it seems.

Benbatl also had some worrying stats in races over a mile. Two of his five runs at a mile came on heavy ground. Those runs are relevant here as the going may not be far off heavy but they aren’t poof that he isn’t effective at a mile. He’s won over this trip at Group 2 level in the past so he’s clearly capable of winning this sort of race at this distance but it backs up the suspicion that the ground will be too soft for him.

Regal Reality was an impressive winner last time out over this trip at Group 3 level (good to firm). That was in an 8 runner field which perhaps allays fears he doesn’t act in smaller fields (he does have a poor record when there are 7 or fewer runners). All his wins outside of maiden company have been on good to firm ground though and whilst he’s placed on softer ground it’s worth noting that his only defeat from four runs at Group 3 level came on soft ground. The ground is the main reason to oppose Regal Reality but the fact he’s not won above Group 3 level in eight attempts is also a concern for his backers.

That leaves us with Century Dream and Sir Busker. Century Dream looks extremely solid based on Instant Expert so let’s see if he has any limitations. He’s never run at Goodwood but there is nothing in his profile that suggests he won’t handle the course. Possibly the best evidence we can get is to look at the Instant Expert for this race but from the sires’ perspectives.

Cape Cross’ offspring have run nine times at Goodwood in the past two years producing two winners. That might not seem a massive win ratio but it’s only bettered by Sire Prancelot (sire of Sir Busker) here and even then that’s by just 1%.

Let’s now look at Century Dreams’ defeats in Group company over a mile with cut in the ground. His two career unplaced efforts in these conditions came in an Ascot handicap on good to soft ground where perhaps it wasn’t quite soft enough for him and again at Ascot in a Group 1. In fact this horse has won just once from seven starts at Ascot (33% strike rate elsewhere) so it might not be his ideal course, for all he is Group 1 placed there on soft ground. Away from Ascot his only defeat over mile on softish ground was a 2^nd in a listed race at Newmarket.

It would be hard to argue that Century Dream isn’t good enough to win this Group 2. His only run so far at this level was a 4^th in the Summer Mile at Ascot on unsuitable good to firm ground. He has won both his starts at Group 3 level comfortably and has previously got within ¾ of a length of Roaring Lion in the QEII stakes at Ascot (possibly not his favourite track).

Can Sir Busker defeat him? He’s been a rapid improver this season, going up 19lbs in just 5 runs and he’s still relatively unexposed at this distance. He was slightly unlucky not to win a competitive handicap last time out off 107 so could easily yet rate higher than his current mark of 111 which leaves him just 4lbs to find on Century Dream. Sir Busker was 2^nd here as a 2yo, won a low grade handicap here as a 3yo and his only unplaced effort at this course was in the Golden Mile two starts ago when getting no run on the rail whatsoever.

The main concern with Sir Busker would be his ability to handle small fields. He’s a real hold up performer who needs a decent pace to aim at so it stands to reason he’d generally be better in bigger fields. He has won in 8 and 9 runner fields, albeit off much lower marks in handicaps, but was outpaced in several smaller field races last year (often at shorter trips than this).

The key here to Sir Busker is going to be the early pace.

Benbatl is likely to lead with Century Dream well placed just off him. It doesn’t look like there will be a strong pace which could inconvenience Sir Busker. If Benbatl ends up being withdrawn because of the ground then there is likely to be an even slower gallop and that pushes things more in the favour of Century Dream and less in the favour of Sir Busker.

They say ‘class horses go on any ground’ but the evidence in this race is that several of these are going to find conditions (not just the ground) against them. Century Dream seems to have everything going for him and Sir Busker is not far behind.

I wouldn’t put anyone off either of these runners who are available at 11/2 and 9/1 respectively at the time of writing. Unfortunately with just 7 runners each way betting is far less attractive. However it could be worth maximising the value from this race by backing both Century Dream and Sir Busker in a reverse forecast.

New Data: Weird Experiment

27 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Harsh Reality

There was a big horses in training sale at Newmarket this week. Late August seems a perfect time to acquire a three-year-old off the flat with a view to going hurdling and so I set to work on a mission to find such a horse.

Sadly, though obviously not surprisingly, I was not the only one at that public auction with that intention: the place was crawling with the great and good of the bloodstock agent and training ranks all seeking the pick of the sophomores to embark on a change of subject.

The reality of racehorse syndication is that there will always be people with deeper pockets; actually that's just a reality of life which is also reflected in the microcosm of the sales ring. But, as in life, so it is the case that some smaller owners are consistently 'lucky'. They make their limited budgets stretch far beyond wealthier purchasers for all that the very top prizes are still almost always out of reach.

Getting 'Lucky'

In recent times we've been 'lucky'. Luck, as Gary Player famously once articulated, is primarily a function of effort and persistence. So I try hard to find a route in which, if not exclusive to me (there's very little new under the sun, especially where such sums of money are concerned), is generally under-utilised. And then, importantly, I rely heavily on my data-driven research being underpinned by expert conformation eyes. When the data agrees with the eyes of experts, we want to play. Naturally, so do many others.

But sometimes horses slip through the net.

We bought Coquelicot, who was at the time already a half-sister to an Ebor winner and Melbourne Cup second and by a rising star of the stallion ranks (Soldier Of Fortune), for €26,000. She was a three-time bumper winner, most recently in Listed grade, in her first season.

We bought Windswept Girl, a 13-length winner of her only start to date, for £20,000. Both are exciting mares' novice hurdle prospects for this term and, because of their pedigrees, have long-range broodmare possibilities, too. We recently bought a Kayf Tara full sister to a Grade 2 winner (and twice G1 fourth) for £22,000. She is showing early promise and has a similar blueprint at a similar price point to her pair of proven predecessors in the geegeez livery.

Previously I've bought two three-year-olds to go hurdling. Both were sourced for me, though they had a similar style: not small, recent winners on the flat, likely or certain to stay, proven on softer turf. In the world of juvenile hurdlers, where so many are either too small or can't see out the trip, that's enough to win races; at what level is the remaining question.

Of that pair, Oxford Blu won a Fakenham juvenile hurdle on his debut for us by 20 lengths before running in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. Swaffham Bulbeck was very consistent but didn't quite see out two miles and/or wanted softer ground than he typically got. He won twice, though, on Gold Cup day this year and last, both at Fakenham and both decent prize money. Importantly, they both gave us a lot of fun. That is pivotal when seeking a syndicate horse.

And so to Project Three-Year-Old Hurdler...

As ever, I was looking for an edge, and one thing which I think is not (yet) subsumed into this market is stride length and cadence. This is a new dataset that has emerged from the Total Performance Data sectional output. We store this data in our database but do not yet publish it. Attheraces already do publish it.

I'll not talk much about stride length and cadence because that master of matters sectional and striding, Simon Rowlands, has written some excellent introductory pieces, which are linked to from here.

The crux is that a longer stride covers more ground (duh!) and implies a bigger horse; a lower cadence (speed of stride) implies an ability to switch off - not over-race - and suggests stamina: it is very difficult to stride often and for a sustained period. Try sprinting 600 metres!

My theory, then, mindful of not having endless resources, was to find a biggish horse capable of relaxing in its races and therefore having the best chance of getting home when upped to two miles.

The Research, Part 1: What's Flat Got To Do With It?

One thing which seems fairly unclear at this stage is whether there is a correlation in National Hunt racing between stride data and performance. There may or may not be: hurdlers stride shorter and turn over their stride less frequently, due to the longer trip, the often softer ground, and the need to conserve energy to leap an octet and more of obstacles. Moreover, a greater proportion of jumps races are not run at an end-to-end gallop.

So what's the point in measuring strides?

Crucially, I was interested in the relationship between a horse's stride data on the flat and its subsequent hurdling ability. In other words, does a certain stride/cadence configuration imply a greater chance of success in the winter sphere?

Step one was fag packet research. Or, more correctly, back of an envelope research. I first looked at Class 1 and 2 UK juvenile hurdle winners.

C1/2 UK Hurdle Winner Flat Stride Lengths

I found that, for those which had raced on the flat at 10f+ (and for which stride data was available), they had generally achieved a 24ft+ peak stride length and somewhere between 2.2 and 2.3 strides per second during the flat race in question.

I then grabbed another envelope, a slightly bigger one, to review UK Class 4 and 5 juvenile hurdle winners' stride data from their previous flat careers. This is what that recycled paper looked like after I'd data vomited across it:

UK Class 4/5 juvenile hurdlers: flat race stride data

Here, I found that their cadence remained quite consistent at 2.2-2.3 strides per second; but their peak stride length was shorter. That might simply be as a result of these being smaller horses: regardless, it does seem at least a touch material.

The Research, Part 2: Projecting Forward

Mindful that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, I set to work in applying this half-cooked quackery to the upcoming - now just passed - sale. Armed with the timeform sales guide, a snip at £50 (well, if you're about to spend £30k on a horse...), the ATR striding data, and a spreadsheet, I listed every three-year-old that had achieved a TF rating of 75+, plus a couple of vaguely interesting extras.

[I eliminated some trainers from whom I would never buy because, for whatever reasons, they leave very little with which to work]

And then I added in some breeding intel, some ratings intel, and some stride intel.

Then, just for fun, I created a composite figure for each horse's official and Timeform ratings (added the two together and divided by 20).

And I created a second composite from stride length and cadence (stride length plus [[10 - cadence] x 2]) divided by five. Examples will help.

Camouflaged had an OR of 76 and a TF rating of 83. His ORTF composite, then, is (76+ 83) / 20 = 159/20 = 7.95

He had a stride length of 24.93 and a cadence of 2.21. His StrCad, then, is

(24.93 + ((10-2.21) x 2)) / 5 = (24.93 + (7.79 x 2)) / 5 = (24.93 + 15.58) / 5 = 40.51 / 5 = 8.102

Camouflaged's total was the sum of those two numbers, 16.05

These formulae are obviously sub-optimal. They're a stab in the dark on the basis of a tenuous going in position and, as such, they may be worthless. But this is what the embryo of progress looks like: data fertilised by an idea, loads of chucked away doodles and partially credible beginnings eventually whittled down to something which may form a basis for more robust and rigorous analysis.

To this crackpot code I added some delicious conditional formatting and it all looked a bit like this:

Then I Watched Some Races

The numbers, good or bad, will only take us so far. We must subsequently trust our peepers and our people. Eyes first.

I watched a lot of races involving the horses on my shortlist. I was looking for nods towards stamina, or horses being asked to do the wrong job, or racing with the wrong run style.

The challenge with those at the front is always whether they got outpaced or were simply not good enough. Honestly, I can't usually tell the difference. With those finishing off their races from further back, it's easy. Or at least easier.

To my spreadsheet I added some comments, which have not been sanitised below, so apologies for any offence caused:

The Sale Context

And then the sale began. I was buying this horse to be trained by Olly Murphy, and I relied heavily on his eye for conformation in conjunction with those on my list I considered more likely. That meant the most obvious horses - which would go for considerably north of my top budget - were not inspected.

The ones listed in green on my sheet were those I felt we had a chance of getting. As it turned out, they either went for plenty more or had underlying issues which meant they might be hard to train. Some will take a punt on such horses, and a subset of those punters will get lucky: consider Hilltop Racing's £2,500 purchase of Sceptical. He was a horse who hadn't stood training but managed to win a bunch of races and place in Group 1's in what turned out to be a short but illustrious career. He has since sadly perished, fatally injured while galloping.

Hilltop's modus operandi is thus - horses with great pedigrees, latent ability, but physical weaknesses - and it must be terribly attritional. That is their business, of course.

Looking for a biggish horse with a clean bill of health on a middling budget is tough. Here is my spreadie with the hammer prices and purchasers appended. I've removed some comments about physical issues observed.

What Did I Buy?

There was little of interest to me on the first two days, though I felt Far Rockaway and Chankaya might have been good. I wish their new connections luck but had reservations which precluded a bid.

The horse I liked on Tuesday made bundles - £82,000 - and might be decent. He kind of wants to be for that sum.

There was most to go at on Wednesday but, when my marker horse - Camouflaged - was knocked down for £90,000, I was resigned to the game being up.

The one that might have got away is Just The Ticket. It's possible, maybe even probable, I overrated his form a touch; and, if I didn't, his hammer price implies a potential physical issue. The agent who bought him buys for owners in the Arab states so I guess at least I'll not be frustrated to see him win the Triumph Hurdle..!

The horse we eventually bought was...

a four-year-old!

Makthecat was not what I went looking for at all; indeed he was already bought by Olly by the time I looked at his form. Almost all of his track form - a mile and a half clunk on the Southwell fibresand aside - has been at ten furlongs or less and ridden prominently or on the lead.

But... hark back to his career debut and his only run on turf beyond a mile and a quarter... where he finished second in a junior bumper... where he had a Listed bumper winner in front of him... and another one directly behind him! Six lengths back to the fourth.

Makthecat handles soft ground, looks likely to stay, and has a good size about him. He was bought for 22,000 guineas, and I am syndicating him right now. Current syndicate members get first dibs as always.

Oh, and he has a stride length and cadence 'in the zone': quite what that is worth, time will tell. I've added all the spreadsheet horses to a QT Angle so I can see how they go.

What About You?

This exercise took time, and it may ultimately have no nutritional value. But the process is important. Asking questions is important. Seeking candidate solutions is important. Trusting yourself to look for hints, clues, answers is important.

Some of you will not be curious, most will not trust themselves, or simply will not have time or inclination for such a project. Fair enough. But if you are curious, do trust yourself, and have both the time and the inclination to look inside the box, there are mysteries to unravel and there is value to be had, be it at the sales, in your punting, or in another walk of life entirely.

And, crucially, the process itself was great fun for me regardless of how things pan out. Life, as far as I can tell, is a series of journeys where the destination is often irrelevant.

Thanks as always for reading.

Matt

p.s. here's the new lad 🙂

Newton Abbot Pace Bias

24 August 2020/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

As we move into the Autumn it is time to switch attention to pace angles and biases in National Hunt racing and specifically at individual National Hunt courses, writes Dave Renham.

As I have noted many times before, when I talk about pace my main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. The racecards on this site have a pace map for each race, as well as a tool to research pace bias, and the stats I am sharing with you in this article are based on the site’s pace data.

The pace data on Geegeez are split into four groups – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the pace score assigned to each group.

For this article I am concentrating on data going back to 2009 and, unless otherwise stated, on races of eight or more runners. Again the main focus will be handicap races, but often I will dip into non-handicap data too. Newton Abbot is the first course to be coming under the spotlight.

The course is a tight 1m2f oval with longish straights and is considered to be sharp in nature. The hurdle course has five obstacles, two of them in the home straight. One of the five hurdles is jumped on the first circuit only:

The chase course has seven fences with three flights quite close together in the back straight and 2 further flights in the home straight.

Newton Abbot Hurdle Pace Bias

They race at four distances over hurdles at Newton Abbot: 2m 1f, 2m 2½f, 2m 5½f and 3m 2½f.

Our first port of call is the shortest of the four distances.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 1 furlong Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Here is the handicap hurdle breakdown (8+ runners):

We have a level playing field here: hold up horses (the '1' group) are a slight disadvantage, but it is relatively minor.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 1 furlong Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

In non-handicaps the picture is slightly different as we can see:

Front runners have a much better record in terms of win percentage and Impact Value, but before we get too carried away the A/E values across the board suggest there is no real value in front runners. This is because generally such races are less competitive and often those at the front tend to be the more fancied runners. This simple graph shows a pictorial comparison of A/E values in non-handicap races. The pace values are on the horizontal axis.

I have looked in more detail at these non-handicap races in terms of ground conditions. When the going is fast (good to firm or firmer) things look like this:

There are only 19 races in the sample but there emerges a pace bias, with front runners clearly doing best. Prominent racers have a reasonably good record also, while horses positioned mid-division or held up early seem to struggle. Despite the sample size being small, there is good correlation between the SR%s, EW%s, A/E and IV figures which gives me more confidence in the hypothesis.

When we look at the data on softer ground (good to soft or softer) the picture is quite different:

We have 25 races with softer underfoot conditions and it points to the complete reverse of the fast ground output. The bar chart below offers a pictorial comparison of the A/E values. The blue bars represent firmer ground, the orange softer ground.

In summary, the most interesting pace angle in non-handicap hurdles at 2m1f seems to be connected with the going. Firmer ground seems to favour pace horses; softer ground seems to favour horses that are patiently ridden, more especially those that race midfield (though the place percentages mean the softer ground arena is less concrete).

Newton Abbot 2 miles 2½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

It should be noted that when analysing this trip on Geegeez using either the Pace Analyser or the Query Tool, you need to set the distance parameters to 2m2f to 2m4f. This is because within those tools races beyond two miles are grouped together in quarter mile distance brackets.

Here is the handicap hurdle breakdown (8+ runners):

As with the minimum distance handicap hurdles, we see a fairly even spread of run styles with no edge to any particular group.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 2½ furlongs Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

In non-handicaps the pattern is similar with no clear edge to any pace section; however, hold up horses have really struggled as the table below shows:

A 2.1% strike rate for hold horses with a very low A/E value of 0.35 suggests we want to avoid these runners at all costs. The place percentage is also well below other run style groups.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

There have been 113 races over this trip since 2009, so this represents the biggest sample to date:

A bigger sample and a very consistent set of results: the A/E values range between 0.81 to 0.87, while the strike rates - both win and place - are similar also. There is little to report then pace wise, although when the going gets soft or heavy, (which is rare at Newton Abbot as the vast majority of their meetings are run between April and September), hold up horses have won 6 of the 14 races.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5½ furlongs Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Non-handicap races over this trip are less prevalent (49 in total) and here are the pace stats:

In such races there seems to be a slight edge for front runners, but it is not a potentially profitable angle. Those coming from the latter half of the field have a poor record which, as previously stated, may be at least in part to do with a relative ability limit.

Newton Abbot 3 miles 2½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

On to the longest distance for hurdle races at Newton Abbot and at this range there have been just handicap races (48 with 8+ runners in total). Again due to the use of distance range brackets when looking on Geegeez you need to select races of between 3m2f and 3m4f to catch all the qualifying races:

At this longer trip, front runners have a clear edge and you would have made a small profit if backing them blindly at SP. The A/E value of 1.3 is a decent one, although we need to be slightly careful as the place percentage is less impressive/consistent.

Newton Abbot Hurdle Pace Bias: Summary

At Newton Abbot over hurdles you generally have to dig a little bit to find pace angles. In my opinion these are the four most promising:

In non-handicap hurdle races over 2m1f, front runners have the advantage on good to firm or firmer going.
In non-handicap hurdle races over 2m1f, horses coming from off the pace have the advantage on good to soft or softer ground, more especially those that race mid division.
In non-handicap hurdle races over 2m2½f, horses that are held up are at a big disadvantage.
In handicap hurdle races over 3m2½f, front runners have a solid advantage.

Newton Abbot Chase Pace Bias

They run over three distances the shortest of which is just more than two miles:

Newton Abbot 2 miles ½ furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias

There are not many races in total but here is the breakdown for handicap races with 8 or more runners:

From this small data set it appears that horses that race up with or close to the pace have an edge. This is a common trend across most courses for handicap races over a shorter distance. Hold up horses have a very poor record with a win strike rate of just 3.45% and an A/E of just 0.28).

Before moving on I thought it would be interesting to compare the A/E values in 2m1f handicap hurdle races with 2m ½f handicap chases. The blue bars are handicap hurdle, orange are handicap chases:

The upward sloping nature of the orange bars helps to illustrate the much stronger pace bias that exists to front runners in handicap chases than hurdlers at this shorter distance.

At Newton Abbot, handicap races over this distance often see smaller fields so below are the handicap data for seven runner or less handicaps too.

We see a similar trend here, though the pace edge is not as strong in races with fewer runners.

Newton Abbot 2 miles ½ furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias

In terms of non-handicaps at this distance there have only been 2 races with 8 or more runners. Instead, below are the data for 7 runner or less races:

Front runners enjoy a strong edge here and have proved profitable to follow. Of course, as mentioned elsewhere previously, predicting the front runner is not an exact science so making blind profits from front runners is not as straight forward as first appears.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5 furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias

A decent number of handicap chases have been run with 8 or more runners at this distance since 2009. Here are the stats:

An edge again exists for horses that race up with or close to the pace. Hold up horses have a poor record again and l would steer clear of horses that have tended to rate further back in recent races.

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5 furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias

As with the shorter distance there have been a limited number of non-handicap chases at 2m 5f so I have lumped all the data together without the usual field size threshold:

Front runners have a fairly good record, but when looking at the A/E values things seem relatively even across the board.

Newton Abbot 3 miles 2 furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias

The longest trip at Newton Abbot now (8 + runners / handicap chases):

Front runners and those racing prominently have the clear advantage at this distance and, in general, you want to be handy. There is a good correlation across win and place strike rates, profitability, A/E and IV values.

All 11 wins from front runners have occurred in races on good going or faster and the bias is clearly stronger on better going. The A/E value for front runners confirm the strengthening of the bias as it stands at a very impressive 1.87 on quicker turf.

Newton Abbot 3 miles 2 furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias

For non-handicap races there have been only eight races with 8 or more runners so I will again look at all non-handicap races at this distance, without the field size restriction:

28 of the 30 races (93.3%) have been won by horses that raced close to or up with the pace. However, it should be noted that these runners have provided just under 70% of all the runners. All in all though it looks far more preferable to lead early or race prominently.

Newton Abbot Chase Pace Bias: Summary

For chase races at Newton Abbot the four strongest findings pace wise are:

In handicap chases over 2m½f, front runners have a fair edge, while hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.
In non-handicap chases over 2m½f (all races – no restriction on number of runners), front runners have enjoyed a strong edge.
In handicap races over 3m2f, front runners enjoy an advantage and in general the closer to the pace the better.
In non-handicap chases over 3m2f (all races – no restriction on number of runners), being up with or close to the pace bestows an advantage.

Some Context for the Newton Abbot Pace Bias Data

What is seen when researching pace in National Hunt racing is that there is normally a stronger front-running pace bias in chases when compared to hurdles. This is the case here at Newton Abbot.

Before I finish, stats in isolation - for example, just one racecourse - often benefit from the painting of a bigger picture. In this case, it is useful to know where Newton Abbot’s figure sit in relation to all UK courses.

Below is a graph which compares the A/E values for for front-runners in handicap chases at Newton Abbot against the overall front-runner A/E averages at all UK chase courses. The three distances are compared in the same graph:

As we can see Newton Abbot’s figures for the shorter and longer distance are around the average figure for all UK courses. The 2m5f trip, however, shows front runners perform below average at the South Devon track.

I have also compared the each-way strike rate figures between Newton Abbot and all UK courses to help further build an overall picture. The A/E figures deal with winners and it is worth looking at all horses who have managed to win or be placed:

In term of win and place runners combined we can see that, over 3m2f, Newton Abbot front runners perform well above the UK average. Once again they perform notably below the average at 2m5f, while at 2m, they are marginally below the average.

As a pace biased course, Newton Abbot lies somewhere in the middle when compared to all courses in Britain. Despite it not having the strongest edges, this article has still highlighted a few angles worth keeping a close eye on.

Good luck when having a bet at the next Newton Abbot meeting.

- DR

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2020

24 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 York : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Ayr :

Who?

Equidae @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep things nice and simple today, starting as usual with our self-explanatory racecard...

So, horse running pretty well, top of the Speed Ratings and representing an in-form yard. The elephant in the room from the racecard is trainer Iain Jardine's poor return over the last year at this venue denoted by the C1, of course. However that refers to all his runners here over the past 12 months, NH & Flat, handicap and non-hcp etc etc. It also only represents a small time frame and in certain circumstances, the Jardine runners are worth following here, as...

...since 2015 in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps over 6f to 1m5½f at odds of 7/4 to 13/2, the numbers are far more attractive at...

... an A/E of over 1.5, a near 1 in 3 win ratio and almost 65p in the pound profits at Betfair SP are all good to see and eliminate plenty of bets we'd not want to be making. And from those 48 runners above...

14/41 (34.2%) for 33.7pts (+82.2%) racing off a mark (OR) higher than 55
11/29 (37.9%) for 25.8pts (+88.9%) had raced in the previous 15 days
11/26 (42.3%) for 26.2pts (+100.8%) had made the frame LTO
and 6/12 (50%) for 17.1pts (+142.5%) had finished third LTO...

...whilst those racing off a mark higher than 55 within 15 days of a placed finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.2pts (+122.6% ROI), including 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 10pts (+200%) from those who were third LTO...

...and this simple approach points to... a 1pt win bet on Equidae @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

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Here is today's racecard

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The Runners

King Ottaker

Teston

Another Touch

Firmanent

Magical Morning

Misty Grey

Aweedram

Matthew Flinders

Overwrite

Diocles Of Rome

Sandret

La Trinidad

Draw and Pace

Verdict

Last Season - yuk!

Previous seasons

Jackpots and jigger all

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The Going

Class

Course

Distance

Field Size

A Look At The Form

Doubts Over Top Rank and Kinross Justified?

The Shortlist

Pace

Verdict

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Place Data

Ground

Class

Course

Distance

Field Size

Placings Summary

Win Data

Digging Deeper

Harsh Reality

Getting 'Lucky'

And so to Project Three-Year-Old Hurdler...

The Research, Part 1: What's Flat Got To Do With It?

The Research, Part 2: Projecting Forward

Then I Watched Some Races

The Sale Context

What Did I Buy?

What About You?

Newton Abbot Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 1 furlong Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 1 furlong Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 2½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 2½ furlongs Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5½ furlongs Non-Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 3 miles 2½ furlongs Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

Newton Abbot Hurdle Pace Bias: Summary

Newton Abbot Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles ½ furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles ½ furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5 furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 2 miles 5 furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 3 miles 2 furlong Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot 3 miles 2 furlong Non-Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Newton Abbot Chase Pace Bias: Summary

Some Context for the Newton Abbot Pace Bias Data