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2020/21 Football Season Preview

7 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

It's time for my once a year public foray into footballing waters, the purpose being to strike a familiarly-shaped wager. Familiar to longer-suffering readers, at least.

Each season since 2016, I've constructed a £50 perm trixie (seven bets, total stake £350) comprised of:

- a team to be relegated from the Premier League

- a team to be promoted from either the Championship or League One

- one or both of two teams to be promoted from League Two

I like the shape of this bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly, promotion offers the hope (and hedge opportunity) of the playoffs; and secondly, League Two has three automatic promotion spots as well as a playoff consolation down to seventh place. That makes for engagement long into the season even if we've picked fairly moderately!

Last Season - yuk!

Speaking of moderate picking, last season was just that. I opted for the following:

- Brighton to be relegated from EPL (15th, comfortably stayed up)

- Portsmouth for League 1 promotion (5th, 2 points off second (auto), lost in playoffs)

- Plymouth for League 2 promotion (3rd, promoted)

- Mansfield for League 2 promotion (21st, hopeless!)

In truth, if Pompey hadn't started so desperately, they'd have got the one extra win they needed for automatic promotion, and I/we would have been celebrating a P-mouth promo double, paying 8.75/1 and clearing a small profit on the ticket. If...

Previous seasons

In previous seasons, the results have generally been a bit more favourable.

2018/19 got Lincoln promoted as winners (2/1) and Huddersfield relegated as wooden spooners (5/4) for a 5.75/1 double. Sunderland's position as playoff favourites enabled a hedge for the full trixie (Notts County were relegated, having been nominated for promotion, as the other leg of the League 2 component!). So it was a profitable losing bet, thanks to that playoff safety blanket.

Jackpots and jigger all

2017/18 was a blowout but 2016/17 was a jackpot year, and in style:

Sunderland to be relegated from Premier League: finished bottom

Newcastle to be promoted from the Championship: won the league

Portsmouth and/or Plymouth to be promoted from League Two: finished 1st and 2nd

This paid out £3,770 for my stakes, and pays for nine losing seasons!

2020/21 Picks

So much for the past, what of the future?

Premier League relegation

This market is always made by the promoted clubs who often out-perform expectations. The most outstanding recent example was Sheffield United last term, a side expected to finish bottom but who finished in the top half, twenty points clear of the drop.

There is a good chance that one or both of West Brom and Fulham will yo-yo back down again - both have a recent history of so doing - but Leeds look set to stay up having been clear best last term and invested well (Rodrigo from Valencia looks a 'steal' from the bigger boys, and the German international defender, Koch, also catches the eye).

The two worst teams not to drop last season - on xG at least, whose chickens tends to come home to roost sooner or later - were Newcastle and Aston Villa. While Newcastle have been busy shoring up their midfield with the solid signing of Jeff Hendrick, it is the business that is expected to complete early this week which offers confidence they'll improve this term. Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson are a proven double act who will fit into the Steve Bruce model seamlessly. Their partnership at Bournemouth two seasons ago was one of the all-time greats in terms of productivity, and bringing the pair in together offers an immediate settling effect for both. [Stop press: Wilson signing is confirmed]

Jamal Lewis is expected from Norwich, too, and he was as exciting a young attacking full-back as there was in the division last campaign.

The Magpies were fairly resilient at the back last season (seventh poorest conceded figure) and could be more fun to watch going forwards in 2020/21.

Wilson was snatched from Villa, whose slightly higher bid was withdrawn when they heard the player preferred Newcastle. Herein lies the midlands club's challenge: they're not terribly appealing to players. Last year's foreign legion scrambled enough results to survive on the last day, at the expense of Bournemouth - sob - but I'm not remotely convinced they will survive again.

The addition of Matty Cash from Forest could help bolster a porous back line, but they were terribly moderate going forwards. The exception, of course, was the mercurial Jack Grealish, a player linked with plenty of clubs though without the substance of an actual bid at this time. He's likely to want away and a team that almost got relegated with Grealish is an obvious contender for the trap door without their talisman. Oh, and they're dreadful away.

The price as ever, 2/1, makes the play. Actually, 15/8 on my ticket, as you'll see in a minute.

League One Promotion

A tricky old division this season, but one where, once again, Sunderland make the market for no obvious reason. They've signed nobody and are currently being linked with a 35-year-old ex-player: should be ideal for a 46 game season with Cups on top. They finished eighth as favourites last year, though were only three points off second in that truncated Covid-19-affected season.

The team for my funds finished on the same points as the Black Cats and missed the playoffs, like Sunderland, on points per game at the pause of play, though they were the form team as the virus stopped everything. Peterborough will have to do it without their main man, Ivan Toney, who is a class player and looks set to advance Brentford's push for the top division having recently swapped clubs for about ten million quids.

Still, the Posh have plenty of depth. The signing of Jonson Clarke-Harris from Bristol Rovers looks positive: he scored 24 in 42 games in his shortish stint for Rovers and, while it asks a chunk of any player to replace Toney, Clarke-Harris has a proven eye for goal and will get plenty of service. He joins Mo Eisa, who can already boast a one-in-two goal record for Posh across 29 games last term.

Sammie Szmodics was an important loanee last season, from Bristol City, and if the chat about his return has any substance they'll be the team to beat. Even if it doesn't, they ought still to offer a very good run for the pennies. 7/2 is generous.

The relegated Championship teams all look to have off-field problems in a year when administration is sadly bound to be a headline in places across the lower tiers.

League Two Promotion

I'll take two bites of the League Two cherry. The first is the least inspired pick on my ticket: Bolton. They've been through the wringer in recent seasons, playing much of the early part of last term with journeymen and juniors, and were not always able to fulfil their fixtures such was the paucity of squad depth. The drop was inevitable though there was a late season rally prior to a points deduction which rendered such on-field valiance academic.

A new season brings a new dawn. Manager Ian Evatt achieved incredible things with Barrow, now a fellow League Two side, and will have a blank canvass upon which to paint his vision. Eoin Doyle looks a great signing up front, having scored 25 goals in 28 games in this division last season.

Evatt's big task will be to mould a new squad into a cohesive eleven and overlay his playing blueprint pronto. That was a mission that did for Notts County (relegated) two season back, and I'm aware that for many this will not look like a value play.

But, with the prospect of financial meltdown seemingly averted for the time being, players, staff and management will be able to focus exclusively on improving the 53% (10 from 19) record of divisional favourites getting promoted this century*. That makes 5/4, arguably and just about, value in a bet like this. They'll be an interesting watch regardless of outcomes.

*Stat courtesy of welovebetting.co.uk

The second name on the League Two ticket is a much more reliable - ostensibly, at least - if less exciting collective, Cheltenham Town. Their progress last term was predicated on defensive soundness espoused by their manager, and former 300-match Cheltenham centre back (as well as Championship Manager legend back in the day!), Michael Duff. Having plied his trade formatively in the west country, he then spent a dozen years at Burnley where he will have further honed the art of grinding out results - and I write that most respectfully.

At the cessation of play last season, Cheltenham had conceded just 25 goals in 36 games, a streak which included only six losses. Playoff heartache followed, but Duff is expected to be able to lift his team for an automatic promotion push this time around having added experienced League One players Andy Williams, Matty Blair and Liam Sercombe to a settled squad. Further depth comes from a trio of young loan signings, providing a balanced blend of legs and brains.

The loss of Ryan Broom to Peterborough is the only notable departure meaning that, while the Robins may not be the most free-flowing side in the division, they'll generally be taking points from games. As a season ticket holder, I'd tolerate that; as a punter, it's absolutely ideal! 3/1 seems good value with three places and the playoffs down to seventh.

The 2020/21 Wager

So that's where this season's hopes lie: in the northwest, the midlands, the southwest and the east - all four corners of our fine lands on one ticket.

Betway, with whom I've long been unable to back horses for more than the price of a bag of crisps, have kindly accepted a more substantial stake on these seasonal outcomes.

The lowest possible return off the ticket would be Bolton/Villa which pays a touch under 11/2, so not quite money back. But, as we've seen above, if any other team makes the playoffs, there's a chance to hedge to profit even from there. Any other double will produce a small profit.

Of course, we still have to get two of these eventualities to come to pass!

Looking on the bright side, an all correct trixie involving Bolton would return £2,932.03, while if Cheltenham joined them in the promotion slots, and both Posh and Villa obliged, the best outcome possible is £6,994.52.

Seven grand for £350 makes the maths easy: it's a 20/1 possible return, including stake, with plenty of (granted, somewhat precarious) safety nets built in.

A £35 stake delivers a possible £700 return, and £3.50 gets the chance to cheer for £70. That's assuming you don't think the above is outright claptrap, which of course it very well might be.

But it's eight months of fun for one up-front investment, and I've laid it out, potential warts and all, to be shot at. Caveat emptor, natch!

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Monday Musings: Weird Ky Derby Looks Authentic!

7 September 2020/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

It’s been a topsy-turvy world for everyone this year, writes Tony Stafford. I bet the connections of Tiz The Law, 7-10 favourite for Saturday night’s re-scheduled Kentucky Derby, run in 2020 as the second rather than first leg of the Triple Crown, wished the race had simply been erased from the schedules. Instead it took place in September rather than the first Saturday in May and the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic outstayed the favourite for a memorable sixth win in the race for his silver-haired trainer.

The Americans have not found it within their powers to re-write the programme books as their European counterparts did to keep their Classic races, if not to the normal schedule, certainly in the prescribed order.

The Stateside authorities changed the distance and position of the Belmont Stakes, but kept it in June, racing having resumed over there a good deal earlier in some jurisdictions than others and well before France, the UK and Ireland in that order.

The Belmont, normally the last leg and over a mile and a half of the biggest oval in North America was reduced in distance to nine furlongs. The Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz The Law was untroubled to beat nine rivals there and extend his career stats to five wins in six starts. He embellished it further with a facile win in the Travers Stakes – normally the August date which identifies the summer champion among the three-year-old colts – two months and more after the Belmont.

By the time the three-race, five-week war of attrition is concluded on that June afternoon in New York, normally most of the Classic generation that managed to keep all three dates are on their knees. It takes a good one to survive it.

Two years ago, Justify was Baffert’s fifth winner of the race and his second to complete the generally-elusive Triple Crown. The Belmont, following the Preakness two weeks after the Derby and then the race in New York three weeks further on, proved to be within Justify’s capabilities, but no more. His career came to a full stop after a training injury soon after, but at least he could be retired as an unbeaten winner of the Triple Crown with six out of six on his scorecard.

Three years earlier Baffert was immediately denied an unbeaten campaign for American Pharoah once he was beaten on debut in a maiden the previous autumn. But by the time he’d won his Triple Crown, his tally was seven for eight, with all bar one of the wins in Grade 1 company – the exception a first-time three-year-old cruise in a Grade 2 to get the competitive juices flowing again.

He was tough, too. He won the Haskell Invitational in early August at Monmouth Park, but then as so many before him, got beat in the Travers at Saratoga, for good reason known as the Graveyard race for Triple Crown race winners or Horse of the Year candidates. He bounced back after a sensible break with an impressive win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before drawing stumps and preceding his younger fellow TC hero into stud duties at Ashford Farm.

I was on hand – for the only time - to see Baffert’s third Kentucky Derby win in 2002 with War Emblem in the green and white stripes of Prince Ahmed Salman’s Thoroughbred Corporation. That 20-1 chance made all the running. Baffert had already sent out Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet the following year to score. I’ve no doubt that having put away Tiz The Law in a thrilling set-to up the Churchill Downs home straight, many would have been hoping to see them do battle again at Pimlico racecourse in Baltimore for the Preakness, but immediate post-race reaction suggested one or even both might miss the final leg.

That race, normally run two weeks after the Derby but this year four, unlike the Belmont but in common with the Derby, has retained its traditional distance of one mile and three-sixteenths. This was the course and distance over which California-based Seabiscuit memorably beat the East Coast champion War Admiral, the 1937 Kentucky Derby winner, in that famed match race. This of course was made doubly treasured by Laura Hillenbrand’s book and the film in which Tobey Maguire and Gary Stevens – as good and natural an actor as he has been for so many years an outstanding jockey – played the roles as the great underdog’s jockeys.

As they turned for home in that 1938 race, the big favourite War Emblem had drawn upsides and most of the massive crowd expected him to pull away. Instead it was Seabiscuit, who had become a much-loved symbol of the American working class in those Depression years, who gained the upper hand: courage and toughness outpointing class and evidently superior breeding.

Saturday’s Classic was virtually a re-make of the Seabiscuit film. Two horses came around the long turn between the back stretch and the home run with the favourite poised on the outside and the rest clearly irrelevant. Authentic had moved quickly from an ordinary start into an early lead from his wide position, so it was reasonable watching live to think he could be swamped when Tiz The Law, always well placed, came with his customary wide run to take his rightful place at the top of the podium.

But as with Seabiscuit, this relative underdog, third favourite at a shade over 8-1, kept going much the better for a length and a quarter success.

Going into the race, Authentic, like the favourite, had suffered only a single reverse, in his case behind Honor A P in the Santa Anita Derby, turning over an earlier result between the pair. Understandably, Honor A P edged him for second best in the Derby market, but there can be no doubting the pecking order now, as Honor A P finished five lengths behind the winner in fourth.

A smaller-than-usual field contested the race this year. Normally it’s a bun-fight to qualify for one of the 20 available stalls. This time, only 15 turned up, reflecting that there are fewer untested dreams at this stage of the season from later-developing horses than is customary. What I did notice, possibly because of the smaller field and the fact that the runners have had more racing experience than is customary, hard-luck stories seemed minimal.

Also it was one of the fastest-ever Kentucky Derbys, the winner clocking 2 minutes 0.61 seconds. Secretariat in 1973 still holds the all-time best with 1 minute 59.4 seconds in his Triple Crown year. Monarchos in 2001 has the fastest electronic time, while in 1964 Northern Dancer, the ultimate sire of sires, most significantly the direct line, from his son Sadler’s Wells through to Galileo and then Frankel and the rest, clocked an even 2 minutes.

Other fast times were Spend A Buck, 2.00.2 in 1985 and Decidedly 2.00.4 in 1962. Authentic, with only five faster than him is right up there in historical terms, certainly in front of Baffert’s previous quintet, the less attritional, more even-tempo nature of the race – on a track that was riding fast – doubtless contributing.

Many times, beaten Kentucky Derby runners avoid the Preakness entirely. This year, of the nine horses beaten by Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown, only two – neither in the shake-up on Saturday – tried again.

It would be eminently understandable should either or both the big two miss the Preakness in four weeks’ time. A great shame too as if they did clash they would surely provide another proper shoot-out. Considering, though, how much money is on offer for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the autumn and how easily future stallion fees can be affected by reverses, maybe it’s more likely that we’ll have to wait for a definitive verdict of the Horse of the Year - Covid19 edition!

While the Kentucky Derby was taking all the attention over the water, Enable was fulfilling presumably her last public duties in the UK (she still has entries on British Champions’ Day – here’s hoping) before embarking on her final act of an epic career when easily landing the odds (1-14 are hardly odds!) in the September Stakes at Kempton Park.

She was quickly into the lead under Frankie Dettori and won easily from Kirstenbosch, owned by Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud. Lightly-raced and on the comeback trail after an interrupted career, Kirstenbosch looks sure to win more races for the James Fanshawe stable.

Meanwhile Enable will be preparing for her ultimate quest, aiming to add a third Arc win after last year’s agonising second to Waldgeist, interestingly on the same weekend as the Preakness. Dettori has been a fitting co-respondent in the mare’s final glorious chapter along with trainer John Gosden. How typical in sport that a younger rival has come along from out of nowhere – well, Ballydoyle! - to make this possibly the toughest of all her four challenges for the famed French race that has become the true European championship.

Love stands in her way, gloriously after three authoritative and sometimes wide margin wins at Group 1 level in the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. I suppose there will be other challengers, but nobody loves a two-man (or woman) sporting tussle more than the viewing public. I’d love Enable to win but I don’t think Love will enable her to do so. If you see what I mean!

On an otherwise quiet weekend domestically, Haydock Park’s Group 1 race, the Betfair Sprint Cup, developed into a battle of the six-year-old geldings. The 5-2 favourite Dream Of Dreams, ridden by Oisin Murphy for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, got up in the closing stages to beat the Archie Watson-trained and Hollie Doyle-ridden 25-1 chance Glen Shiel, the pair leaving the three-year-olds Golden Horde, Art Power and Lope Y Fernandez well behind. The same went for two previous winners, The Tin Man and Hello Youmzain.

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1302253464068788231

A race with rather more significance for the future was Yesterday’s Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on the first weekend since the racing roadshow decamped back from Deauville and its chewed-up terrain to the capital. Only six turned out, but it was a high-class affair. The Andre Fabre-trained Persian King (by Kingman) turned away Pinatubo by just over a length, with Circus Maximus a long way back in third but still ahead of Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Siskin who seems a shadow of the early-season version.

https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1302676690670243840

Persian King had been three lengths in arrears to Circus Maximus when they were third and fourth behind unbeaten Palace Pier in the Prix Jacques le Marois (also Group 1) three weeks earlier over the same trip at Deauville. This performance requires some re-alignment among the division, but it is clear that Palace Pier stands alone at the top of the mile rankings. Those three Irish fillies, Fancy Blue, Alpine Star and Peaceful, who dominated the finish of the Prix de Diane over the extended mile and a quarter at Chantilly, might prove more of a test to Palace Pier than any of yesterday’s Moulin contestants should they be given the opportunity to tackle him.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

7 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
2 wins from 3 in 2020
1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 31st August to 5th September 2020

6 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

It's all a bit groundhog day again this week. It just seems to be one winner per week at present and sadly that proved to be the case again.

I'm frustrated/disappointed at the numbers of late, but I'm generally happy with the picks, as we're there or thereabouts most days. Poor tactics cost us an 8/1 winner on Monday and we'd a nice victory on Tuesday. Wednesday & Saturday saw us bag runners-up slots, whilst Thursday's runner unshipped his rider when going really well and to top it off, Friday's pick was undone by the Ascot draw.

These aren't excuses, they're facts, but the main over-riding fact is that we just didn't do well enough, so we'll try again this week!

Chris

Selections & Results : 31/08/20 to 05/09/20

31/08 : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3
01/09 : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
02/09 : Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1
03/09 : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2
04/09 : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2
05/09 : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8

31/08/20 to 05/09/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR
P/L: -3.88pts
ROI = -14.92%

September 2020 :
1 winner from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -1.50pts
ROI = -30.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 142 = 19.01% SR
P/L: +5.31pts
ROI = +3.74%

Overall:
683 winners from 2606 = 26.21% SR
P/L: +537.18pts
ROI: +20.61%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Grounds For Concern For Leading Superior Mile Runner

4 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

There are plenty of big handicaps on Saturday and we also have Group 1 action so it should be a great day for betting whatever your race type preference. This week I’m going to look at another one mile Group race, having previewed the Celebration Mile last week at Goodwood. This week it's the Group 3 Superior Mile (1.45pm) at Haydock.

I’ll be using Instant Expert once again for this race but it’s worth noting that there are some more lightly raced types in this race compared to last week which means there will be a few more unknowns.

The Going

The ground is going to be a hugely important factor here with underfoot conditions currently described as soft, heavy in places on Friday afternoon. It’s due to be a dry weekend so we’ll probably be look at soft ground all over.

To get as much data into Instant Expert as possible I’m going to include data from ground described anywhere between good to soft and heavy.

A few things initially stand out here. First of all Dark Vision has failed to place in all four starts on softish ground. He’d have half a chance on his best form but it looks as though a line can be put through this runner when there is cut in the ground.

Khaloosy and Kinross both have both encountered softer ground once and they both won those races.

Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar have both had plenty of experience in these kinds of conditions and both have strong records. Stormy Atlantic has placed in six of his eight runs on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy whilst Qaysar is three from five as far as placing is concerned. The pair both have three wins when the mud is flying.

The well fancied My Oberon and Top Rank are yet to run on softer than good whilst outsider Graignes is also an unknown as far as the ground is concerned.

For those that are yet to run on softer ground we can get an insight into their suitability for testing conditions by using Instant Expert to look at sire data.

Stormy Atlantic (Stormy Antarctic), Kingman (Kinross) and Dubawi (Khaloosy & My Oberon) all score well here and those sire stats aren’t contradicted by what we have seen from these offspring so far which is great. Comparatively the offspring of Dark Angel perform fairly poorly so Top Rank is far from guaranteed to enjoy these conditions.

Class

My Oberon has run once and placed once in class 1 races. Stormy Antarctic is by far the most experienced of these at this level with fourteen runs and six places. Dark Vision has two places from six attempts in class 1 races so he’s had plenty of tries at this sort of level without much success. Another strike against that runner.

Qaysar and Top Rank both step up in class whilst Khaloosy has failed to place in his only run in a class 1 with Kinross failing to place in two attempts in class 1 races.

Course

Not much course form on offer here but a big tick for Qaysar who has placed in two runs from three here. Both of those places were actually victories.

Distance

Top Rank has been most consistent at a mile to date, placing in all five starts, which we know were all at a lower level than this. At the other end of the scale Kinross and Qaysar have not been as consistent at this trip.

Field Size

Top Rank and Khaloosy have both placed in their sole start in fields of this sort of size. We have much more data for Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar and Dark Vision who are clearly comfortable in these mid sized fields.

A Look At The Form

We have plenty of question marks still as we only have limited data for the more lightly raced contenders.

Doubts Over Top Rank and Kinross Justified?

Top Rank and Kinross are two runners who are on the brink of having a line put through them based on the results from Instant Expert. Top Rank was beaten by a length in a handicap off a mark of 103 last time out. He’s now rated 106 which leaves him with 8lbs to find on the top rated runner here. He is lightly raced so may still improve but he’ll need to do so on ground he’s unproven on so comes with plenty of risk attached for a 6/1 chance.

Kinross has form on this sort of ground but it’s difficult to weight up as it was a wide margin maiden win. He did beat the now 97 rated Raaeb by 8 lengths (in receipt of 6lbs) so it was a smart effort on that occasion. His two runs this season have come in Group 1 company and he hasn’t been totally disgraced, especially as those runs came on faster ground. He’ll need to improve for the return to this ground though and he’s as yet unproven in ground quite this soft so backers are taking plenty of chances.

The Shortlist

There is little form that suggests Graignes is going to win this and the ground looks against Dark Vision so we are currently left with:

Khaloosy
My Oberon
Stormy Antarctic
Qaysar

First let’s look at the more exposed pair of Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar. Stormy Antarctic has had an official rating between 111 and 114 for the past 4 years which means we should know exactly how good he is. Instant Expert has shown that he is a horse with an okay record in better class races that relishes cut in the ground. On heavy ground he has form figures of 112, on soft ground he has form of 114 and that defeat came at the hands of Roaring Lion in a Group 1. Even on good to soft ground at a mile his form figures are 10222 with that blowout coming in the 2000 Guineas.

He clearly loves this ground but how good is he? He’s the horse to beat according to official ratings, although there are several possible improvers in this line up. He’s won two of his three starts at Group 3 level over a mile. His defeat came earlier this year at the hands of Century Dream. He carried a Group 2 penalty that day (which he doesn’t have to shoulder here) and that was his first start in almost 12 months so 4^th was a decent enough effort. At Group 2 level at this trip he has finished 2^nd and 3^rd and the ground wasn’t quite as soft as he’d like on either occasion. He’s clearly good enough to win this sort of race and will be getting close to ideal conditions here.

Unlike Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar is completely unproven at this level. He’s improved each season though and is rated just 3lbs shy of Stormy Antarctic courtesy of winning a handicap over course and distance on testing ground by 4.25 length off a mark of 105. He’s failed to reproduce that form in two runs since but one of those runs was in a small field conditions race on fast ground and the other was in a York handicap off a mark of 111 and he was well enough beaten on his previous York run off a much lower mark. He’s probably not going to prove much better than his current rating but his best career run came here under similar conditions and a reproduction of that might see him reach the places.

Khaloosy and Oberon actually met last time in a Group 3 at Goodwood and My Oberon was 2.5 lengths in front of Khaloosy. My Oberon was also badly hampered by the winner so was value for further. Whilst My Oberon looked at home on the ground that day Khaloosy looked all at sea with the combination of fast ground and unconventional track clearly against him. Khaloosy is much better judged on his previous effort at Royal Ascot where he won the Britannia Handicap easily. That race has worked out well and beating Finest Sound (now rated 94) giving him 7lbs and a comfortable looking 4.5 length beating means he probably ran to a rating even higher than his current mark of 111 that day.

My Oberon has no soft ground form and although he’s bred to handle it, he’s previously been described by his trainer as ‘a fast ground horse’ so there have to be some reservations. Those same reservations don’t hang over Khaloosy whose sole run in testing conditions was by far his best.

Pace

We all know how important pace can be, especially in these smaller field races that can be run at a crawl on occasions. Here is the pace map for this race based on their last four runs:

As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this contest so those that are able to sit handily could be advantaged as could be those who have proven themselves to be a bit ‘speedier’. Stormy Antarctic stays further than this so he’d ideally want a strong test and many of Qaysar’s best efforts have come when held up, although he is tactically versatile. My Oberon has a nice race style for this sort of set up but the question mark over the ground remains. Khaloosy was held up at Ascot but those were the right tactics to employ on the day and he’s been ridden much more prominently in his other runs.

Verdict

Assuming Khaloosy isn’t just much better at Ascot, he deserves another chance here and after just 4 career starts he should be able to improve past the extremely solid yard stick that is Stormy Antarctic. Meanwhile Qaysar isn’t a terrible bet for a place and could fill 3^rd spot behind the other pair if things go to plan.

Monday Musings: Never Mind The (Gender) Gap

31 August 2020/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

Watch out Oisin, and for that matter Tom, Hollie’s on the prowl! The estimable Master Murphy might be a 6-1 on shot to retain his title in the 2020 Flat Jockeys’ Championship, but in the world of sport (yes Sky it’s sport not sports!) momentum is everything, writes Tony Stafford.

The 23-year-old pocket battleship already had one record on her growing honours board – I bet Mr Marquand has to look at it every day in their shared home in Hungerford – that of the 116 best-for-a-female wins in 2019. At Windsor on Saturday, while Tom was an hour and a half away at Newmarket drawing a blank from his five mounts (two favourites), Hollie had five memorable winners at Windsor. While the cat’s away, one might say.

Needless to say, this was the first time a female rider had ever ridden a five-timer on a single UK card. No doubt Julie Krone, the American who retired from professional race riding in 1999 when Hollie was barely two years old, will be aware that in this unassuming young lady, there are many similarities with herself.

In July 1992, the Daily Telegraph sports editor, in his wisdom, despatched me off to Redcar for a Wednesday night meeting that really did attract attention. The first race was the Julie Krone Maiden Stakes and, fittingly, the then 28-year-old Michigan-born sensation was duly set up with a winner. Al Karnack, an 11-2 on shot trained for Ecurie Fustok, major owners at the time, by Mohammed Mubarak, won by 20 lengths.

Four more rides followed, with two wins. I spoke to Ms Krone a few times during the event and, thinking back, like Hollie today, you were immediately struck by her small stature but most obviously the strength in her powerful broad shoulders. Picture Ms Doyle in five years’ time after many more hours in the gym and on the Equisizer and you will have Julie Krone mark 2.

Krone at that time was really about quantity, just as Hollie had been until the recent flurry of Listed and Group wins following her initial Royal Ascot success two months ago on the Alan King-trained Scarlet Dragon. At Windsor she collected two more stakes victories, a Listed on Hughie Morrison's Le Don De Vie and the Group 3 Gallagher Group Winter Hill Stakes on the Roger Charlton-trained Extra Elusive for her new retained boss, owner Imad Sagar. The following summer from that Redcar evening, in June 1993, Krone won her only Triple Crown race, the Belmont Stakes on Colonial Affair, highlight of her 3,704 career wins.

Both Hollie’s big winners and the other three that comprised her epic achievement owed as much to her ability to find a clear course on her mounts and the determination with which she sometimes contrives such a position through sheer willpower. On to Yarmouth yesterday, where three more victories followed and only bar narrow reverses by a short head and then, irritatingly, a nose, was a second five-timer within 24 hours foiled.

I noticed one race at Beverley on Thursday where the Archie Watson–trained Harrison Point looked in danger of being reeled in by Tony Hamilton on fast-finishing Zip. But as he came alongside, Hollie allowed her mount to edge slightly left, making her own mount’s mind up and possibly persuading the eventually runner-up to think again.

Watson of course, one of racing’s young innovators, was first to give more than a passing acknowledgement of the young rider’s potential – although Wilf Storey says he beat Archie to it! -, putting her on the majority of his flying juveniles painstakingly-schooled at home and often in barrier trials to show their form first time. She repaid that confidence by almost invariably getting them quickly away from the gate – a vital skill in sprints that many other riders find elusive. No names, as Mr Bolger might say.

At Windsor, on the rain-softened ground, Hollie identified the need to get to the favoured far rail, tailoring her tactics with that in mind. Every time she was first onto the far side, she stayed there until the finish. At Yarmouth, she made it to the front four times, and while it looked as though each of her mounts was vulnerable to a challenge from behind, it was only in the last stride that Jamie Spencer, on a typical last-to-first flourish on Ilalliqa could get to her on the Crisfords’ Late Arrival.

Her other near miss, Little Brown Trout, would have needed only another couple of strides to catch the Tom Queally-ridden Spirited Guest. Ten winners in two days surely would have been too much, for the racing world generally and especially for the boys at the top of the table.

Momentum in the Jockeys’ Championship race can be vital. Oisin Murphy, at 6-1 on might seem uncatchable on 94 wins, bolstered by the first three at Goodwood yesterday, but he has an eight-day suspension to serve out which means he misses the St Leger meeting this week. Ben Curtis, more annoyingly for another of the go-to men for big southern stables when their horses head north for minor meetings, has an automatic 14-day exclusion for his ill-judged foray into the nowadays-sacrosanct owners’ area at Newmarket last week, breaching the strict - but of which many may now say - outdated Coronavirus rules.

Those rules, though, were the basis that racing was allowed to start and remain the cornerstone of its license to persist. Curtis’ mistake was that he chose to talk to the owner of the one horse he was going to ride at HQ, annoyingly a late switch because Hamilton was abandoned through waterlogging. As one trainer who uses Curtis’ talents said to me, “He could have arranged to meet him in the garage half an hour earlier, sat down and had a coffee, no problem.”

So, after a momentous weekend, after Murphy there’s a massive gap to William Buick (7-1) and Marquand (9-2) both on 70. Curtis is next on 63 with Doyle up to 60. She is almost certain to narrow the gap in the coming week given her present rate of progress and while talk of a championship this year might well be so much pie-in-the-sky, second place at the main expense of her partner Marquand looks entirely possible.

Tony Nerses, someone I’ve known for almost 40 years since the time he looked after the racing affairs of Prince Yazid Bin Saud, has been the power behind the upward mobility of Imad Sagar who, with Saleh Al Homaizi, owned Derby winner, Authorized. In recent years, Al Homeizi withdrew from their Blue Mountain stud operation, leaving Sagar to go it alone. Nerses was a constant factor throughout that time and the public face of the operation. I love his ads in the Racing Post when one of the Sagar horses wins a race, which say, purchase Authorized by Tony Nerses.

I’m sure he had more than a minor part in securing Hollie’s services. So far from only seven rides, she has recorded four wins including Group race success in the Rose of Lancaster at Haydock and Saturday’s big race both on Extra Elusive, yet another example of Roger Charlton’s skill in improving horses, along with the beneficial effect a gelding operation can bring.

The main issue here was that while Extra Elusive likes to go from the front, it was almost inevitable that he would be challenged for that position by the Mark Johnston candidate, Sky Defender. But instead of going head-to-head, Ms Doyle allowed Franny Norton to have the lead, tracking him a length behind before moving up on his outside to get the rail position she wanted after the point where the figure-of-eight crosses over. From there she was never going to be denied.

Earlier, on Hughie Morrison’s Le Don De Vie, she engineered a similar position at a crucial stage and the Australia-bound four-year-old won with some authority starting off what was to be a memorable weekend for the trainer.

Yesterday at Goodwood, his five-year-old mare Urban Artist, running for the first time in a handicap after winning her novice race at Windsor second time on the Flat, signalled a profitable future with an emphatic all-the-way win against some highly-regarded younger fillies. A couple of hours later Telecaster, continuing his French love affair with Christophe Soumillon, replicated the mare’s front-running exploits with a six-and-a-half length demolition of his Grand Prix de Deauville (Group 2) opponents.

Both horses are home-bred, Telecaster by the Weinfeld family’s Meon Valley stud and Urban Artist by the late Tim Billington. Morrison was very subdued when I spoke to him yesterday morning in advance of the Goodwood race. He said that Tim had died unexpectedly three weeks earlier. In all the debate about racing and its place in the world he said that Billington had paid £2,000 for yesterday’s winner’s fourth dam and she over time had been responsible for at least 30 winners and Tim, via his syndicates – “he couldn’t afford to own them outright himself” – had brought at least 50 people who would never have thought of owning a horse into the sport.

“That’s what it’s all about – or should be” said the trainer, who at the time could not have envisaged a better afternoon than the one he was to experience. Both yesterday’s winners are excellent examples of the value of continuity in racing and breeding. Telecaster is something like a sixth generation product of one of the two main Egon Weinfeld foundation mares, and the way he has progressed from somewhat flighty and disappointing Derby candidate last year to a potential Group 1 middle-distance winner as a four-year-old is testimony to his trainer’s patience and skill.

When Urban Artist was unsuccessfully tried last winter in a Newbury novice hurdle following two bumper wins (one Listed at Cheltenham) she was stepping outside her mother’s comfort zone. Urban Artist is only the second foal to race of Cill Rialaig. She too won two bumpers, one a Listed also at Cheltenham, but never raced over hurdles. Instead she went Flat racing and got into the 100’s while winning races among them at Royal Ascot. I remember her well, but I doubt she had quite the power of this talented mare who sluiced through the ground to complete the Oisin Murphy hat-trick with complete authority to suggest a big hike from her initial 80 is inevitable.

It was Hollie’s weekend though, so I make no excuse for returning briefly to Julie Krone, about whom it is sad to relate that she never rode again in the UK during her professional career. But to get an estimate of how talented she was, she did ride in two consecutive Legends’ races at the St Leger meeting. In 2011, a full 12 years after retiring, and at the age of 48 she came to Town Moor for the mount on Declan Carroll’s Invincible Hero who started 4-1 favourite in a field of 16. He won with ease. Third that day was George Duffield who had been the runner-up to Krone 19 years earlier when on Richard Whitaker’s Gant Bleu, a 9-1 shot, she rode her second winner. “Led on bit two out and stayed on well” was the close-up comment.

As I said at the start, for me Hollie Doyle is the new Julie Krone. It’s amazing to think that now with Hayley Turner, Josephine Gordon and Hollie, all in turn riders with 100-plus wins in a season on their record, and with a host of French female riders benefiting from their continued (if in the case of the UK trio, unnecessary) weight allowance, the first female champion is not far away. I think we know who that will be!

- TS

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020

31 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.00 Southwell :

Who?

Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

SotD Update, 24th to 29th August 2020

30 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

We had a great start to the week with a 5/1 winner and a 4/1 shot beaten by just a short head, but things went downhill from there. In fairness, Saturday's runner-up ran a decent race, but was well beaten by a better performer on the day.

The upshot is that we're back where we were last Sunday, -2.88pts for the month, but it makes the maths very simple. If Monday's runner fails to win, we lose 3.88pts on the month and if we're to make profit from August, we need a 3/1 (or bigger) winner.

The fact that Tuesday's narrow defeat could be the difference between success and failure for the month merely serves to highlight the very fine margins we have to work within every time we stick our neck out and recommend a horse.

Can/will I land a 3/1 winner tomorrow? Well, I certainly hope so!

Chris

Selections & Results : 24/08/20 to 29/08/20

24/08 : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1
25/08 : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
26/08 : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2
27/08 : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2
28/08 : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1
29/08 : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1

24/08/20 to 29/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -11.52%

2020 to date :
26 winners from 136 = 19.11% SR
P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +5.74%

Overall:
682 winners from 2601 = 26.22% SR
P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.74%

And here is the overview for 2019