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Feidhlim Cunningham – From Trading Room to Training Yard
Racing and betting can be uncomfortable bedfellows, especially if you listen to some trainers about bookmakers, but the association does not seem to bother Champion Hurdle-winning handler Gavin Cromwell. Instead, Cromwell has been using the relationship to his advantage, employing former Paddy Power odds complier Feidhlim Cunningham as his race planner since 2018, writes Tony Keenan.
The pair first met in 2016 when Cunningham acquired Bottleofsmoke, a nine-race maiden, out of a Dundalk claimer in July that year. “He was rated 45 when we got him and we were thrilled to get him up to 68 and I got to know Gavin through that. We were plotting a course with him so I’d ring him and say there’s a race in four or five weeks that would suit and he always seemed appreciative of that. I hadn’t a clue about the training side but it worked well and he also managed to get a win out of a limited bumper horse at Stratford that I had with a few friends.”
Like many before him, Cunningham got into racing at college where he was a self-described ‘maths nerd’ but spent most of his time in University College Galway punting. After that, there were two years at a spread betting firm where the learning curve was steep. “You had to be so accurate there. At Powers, you could be 5’s about something that should be 10’s but you weren’t getting filled in by being too short on it whereas with the spreads, punters can lay the other side of it.”
There followed five years of odds compiling at Powers where he did “mainly Irish racing… learning plenty from the more experienced lads and as you watch racing everyday, your race reading improves.” He loved working there, “I was dying to go into work and did all the extra hours going”, but at the end of 2017 felt it was time for a change. That was where Cromwell came in and asked him if he wanted to place a few horses and two years later he’s still there.
A typical day for the racing manager starts on the gallops for first lot; this is a relatively new development as he tries to improve his knowledge of the pure training side. Cunningham is at pains to point out that his job is “racing manager rather than assistant trainer… my knowledge of the physical animal would be limited compared to lads working them their whole lives; I know that and Gavin knows that, I’m there to do the job of form.”
“From there, it’s back to the office for declarations at 10am, booking jockeys, declaring headgear, doing the entries for five or six days ahead before liaising with owners about their horses.”
Some parts of the job are not all that different from his previous occupation: “I’d be half pricing races up in my head and trying to rate them one to five in terms of quality to see what our best option is. I try to have a good idea what engagement we will take up from weights stage, the day after declarations while also keeping an eye on other horses’ entries.”
Other parts of the job are just “a lot of boring office stuff like vaccinations” but he often goes racing when the trainer needs representation; that can be a very nice part of the job when things work out, not so much when there is some explaining to do. Dealing with owners is something he enjoys, some of whom will take an active interest in placing their horses, while his background in the betting industry can be useful for those inclined towards a punt.
There is a plan for every horse in the yard, no matter their ability level, and those are done in conjunction with the trainer. “I give him a list of horses and he tells me when they’ll be ready. I can then make a plan, the odd time I’d try to twist his arm. Every horse has a target but those plans are flexible. If it is not working, we will just change it.”
Last year’s Bellewstown July meeting was a time when the plans of a number of horses came together, the yard managing seven winners across the four-day meeting. “We targeted Bellewstown as a festival last year and aimed to have as many runners primed for it as we could. We picked out a number of horses that would be suited to races there four to six weeks beforehand; it just meant that we would go there instead of an alternative race a week or two either side of it. It is Gavin's local track and thankfully things worked out, he got them there in great nick.”
Plans will typically start with the aim of winning a race in Ireland but if the horse is struggling, they are not afraid to travel. “The initial aim is to win at home but the likes of Dundalk can be very competitive in the winter and, as Gavin says, we want winners.” When placing horses in the UK, Cunningham says that the “fully transparent entries and declarations are a massive help to race planners as can see what is entered before the race closes. Not all trainers have time to look through every race and we’ve won several races in Britain because of that, the Perth Silver Cup with Callthebarman was one example.”
Cromwell’s yard has grown exponentially in recent years; from 18 winners in 2016, their winners have gone 28, 45, 88 in the three years since. They were one of six Irish National Hunt yards to have at least 100 individual runners last season along with Mullins, Elliott, de Bromhead, O’Brien and Meade. This spurt is by design: “when I came here, Gavin was saying he wanted to give it a real go, the aim is to keep growing, you either compete or you don’t. We have a great team in the yard. Jonathan Moore has come in as stable jockey and done really well for us; we have one of the leading conditionals in the country in Conor McNamara, who went from strength to strength last season, and we also have the valuable claim of Breen Kane. Everyone in the yard works extremely hard to achieve the best results that we can.”
Part of that scaling up might be getting the bigger owners on board: this is a yard that, outside of JP McManus, is made up of “the smaller man, the medium man, syndicates”. Cunningham points out that “22 of our winners last year cost ten grand or less, we don’t aim for that and would like a higher quality of horse but we work with what we have”. On the broader subject of attracting new owners he says, “you hope what you’re doing with your horses will be evident to lads, we purchased a couple of horses from big owners that we did well with and that might perk their interest. If you do it on the track, you hope these lads will come to you”.
Getting bigger is not without its difficulties and he warns that “you don’t want to lose the personal touch, and Gavin has time for everyone”. Cromwell is described as a “good delegator” and you get the impression he is not afraid to back his staff. He is “upfront with owners which people tend to appreciate”. He also says his boss is “a brilliant judge of when a horse is or isn’t right” though this is more “a feel thing” than rooted in data.
Cunningham says that Cromwell’s best trait as a trainer is that “he gets the best out of them. He is very level-headed, he doesn’t get too down on himself when things don’t go right and he doesn’t get carried away with success. You don’t see many leaving and doing better elsewhere. The job he did with Espoir D’Allen was different class. To win a Champion Hurdle in the fashion he did really put Gavin’s training abilities in the limelight. Every quality horse he has had has fulfilled their potential”. Darver Star was freakish in this regard – “you just can’t explain his rate of improvement” – but there are other highlights from his time in the yard.
Lever Du Soleil won four in a row in the UK last summer. “We had three picked out and knocked a fourth out of it too but it’s not every horse that can go over and back like that. Over there, the way penalties work, you’ve got more chance of running up a sequence. He went from 54 to 84 in 18 days and it’s funny, lads remember that even though it’s low grade, it captures the imagination”.
The late decision to run Jeremy’s Flame (finished second) in January’s Tolworth Hurdle was another proud moment. “She was a late entry for that race getting the allowance and from my time in Powers I am inclined to take on the talking horses that haven’t done it yet so she was entitled to take her chance. 6/1 for a Grade 1 and 6/1 for a handicap on her next start, that was a good bit of placing”.
Patience and looking ahead is important in his job. “Top Of The Charts won four times last season and from a race planning side there were only two hurdles in the whole calendar that were backing up where he could win at the grade and back up under the penalty within 6 days. That worked well when he won at both Down Royal and Clonmel in late August and early September.”
Finding the next one is a major part of his job and one of the most challenging and rewarding aspects. “With the horse-in-training sales, I’ll go through every single horse which is a fair task as there are 1,500 in some of them. I’ll make notes on everything, go to Gavin with a list of 40-50 that I think have upside, he’ll look at them physically and scratch three-quarters of them on physical aspects he doesn’t like, the other 15 we’ll bid on and hopefully come home with four or five.
“He is happy to back me on form and we have done well from these sales. Wolf Prince was a good one, he won twice and finished second in a Grade 1 juvenile hurdle last season while Running In Heels [despite being nine when she joined the yard] won four times in 2018 having been purchased for £2,500.” Cunningham says that one of his strengths is that he comes at it “from a betting & form approach, not taking lads’ word as gospel who might be down on the horse for one reason or another.”
Doing his own video form and analysis, he is inclined to ignore the noise and “go with the formbook or the angle we have that might see them improve”. There are times when he hears something negative afterwards from someone previously involved with the horse but “you have to back yourself and it has worked out so far.”
Tony Keenan was speaking with Feidhlim Cunningham, race planner for trainer Gavin Cromwell
In part 6 of his outstanding series, Russell Clarke looks at the bigger picture through the prism of short-term hiccups. Russell's previous articles can be found here.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ODDS
Value betting as an accepted modus operandi is a relatively recent concept in the mainstream betting world. The Pricewise column in the Racing Post during the 1980’s was the flag bearer and the continued success of that column has seen the concept of value become uppermost in the minds of most intelligent backers. We accept that value is subjective and that the market is accurate but we believe we are shrewd enough to spot the anomalies, otherwise why bother betting at all?
What image comes into your mind when you hear ‘professional gambler’? A James Bond type, suave and handsome, standing at a roulette wheel, martini in hand and a gorgeous blonde draped over his shoulder? He pushes forward a huge pile of chips onto a number, and watches with smug certainty as the ball falls into the right slot. Yep, that’s me...
This is all absolute nonsense of course. For a start, James Bond’s favourite game was baccarat not roulette. Secondly, if you shake a martini you chip the ice and just get a watered down drink. Thirdly, those lazy gender stereotypes went out of fashion a very long time ago around these parts. And fourthly, neither James Bond nor anyone else in the history of human civilisation (fictional or real) has ever been able to accurately predict where the ball will finish on a roulette wheel. A roulette wheel is an efficient random number generator, and the only way to beat it is by having the odds on your side.
So how do successful gamblers win? How do some investors make loads of money, when most investors lose? Every successful professional gambler/investor in history has something in common: they bet with Positive Expected Value (EV+). An EV+ is having the odds in your favour. Over time, if the odds are in your favour then you will win. How to calculate EV was covered previously in the article on Price Boosts (Episode 4).
So the reality of professional gambling is somewhat less glamorous than the James Bond fantasy. A pro gambler is much more likely to be found reading a newspaper, perusing a website, or playing with numbers in a spreadsheet than standing in a casino, drinking and flirting with the opposite sex. The reality of professional gambling is mostly a little dull, and unfortunately there’s no way of explaining the basics that will be a roller-coaster ride of page-turning excitement. So, I won’t even pretend to try.
But if you master the basics it could just be possible for you to become filthy stinking rich through professional betting. Witness Messrs. Bloom and Benham, and just look at Warren Buffett. The latter leads a frugal, slightly eccentric life, with his head buried in a newspaper most of the time. But, depending on what the US stock market has done in the previous couple of days, he may very well be the richest man in the world as you read this (he isn’t, but it read quite well, so I have left it in!).
All Warren Buffett has done his whole life is practice ‘value investing’. He’s a professional gambler. He bets on the share prices of companies. He buys them for less than they’re worth and then sells them for more than they’re worth. That’s it. He understands randomness, he recognises value and he has developed investing methods to turn that value into EV+.
VARIANCE (or Randomness)
The first step to becoming a successful investor is to understand variance. Variance is a theoretical concept that you need to ‘get’ before you can move on. It is invisible, but you have to know that it’s there, and how it works. Like a physicist has to believe in, and understand, gravity even though he can’t actually see it.
Understanding variance/randomness is the opposite of believing in fate. Events are not preordained. Events are chaotic and random. Nothing happens ‘for a reason’. Things just happen because events that take place, no matter how small, have an effect on everything around them (sometimes known as 'the butterfly effect').
The influence of the laws of cause and effect are at play all around us, every second of every day, everywhere in the universe, from the moment of the big bang (if you believe in that). Anything that can happen, might happen. Indeed, it will happen if you wait long enough. Everything that happens in the universe does so within a framework, the ‘laws’ of how the universe works. These are the rules of the game. Our best way of describing these laws is with:
The standard model of particle physics
Einstein’s general law of relativity
Essentially, the force of gravity and the speed of light are fixed. Everything that happens in the universe conforms to these laws, but what actually happens within the framework that these create is random and chaotic. There is loads of stuff in the universe, moving around, so it is interacting all the time with lots of other stuff. Even the tiniest event, the briefest collision between the most tiny and insignificant of these can set off a chain reaction that leads to a radically different outcome than would be observed if the tiny event hadn’t taken place. By the way, if you are a physicist you will know that some of what I have just said is not strictly true. I know this because my youngest daughter is a physicist and she has pointed this out... daughters, eh?
OK, enough already with the physics. What on earth has all this got to do with gambling? Everything, is the answer because games of sport, hands of cards and the economies of the world all work in the same fundamental way as the universe: there are rules and there is randomness. That’s all.
Take a football match. The rules are fixed. There will be 22 players, a referee, a rectangular field and 2 sets of goals. The referee will blow his whistle and the players will start to play. What happens over the next 90+ minutes on that rectangle is random. There is a discernible and predictable pattern to the randomness for sure. We can know that it’s likely that the better players will play better. The team with more of the better players is more likely to win. The number of goals scored is most likely to be between 2 and 4. Et cetera.
We can know these things, these ‘likelihoods’, by observation and research, considering data on previous similar occurrences, i.e. other football matches, especially those involving these teams and these players. But what we cannot do is predict exactly what will happen. From the moment the referee blows his whistle to start the match there is a virtually infinite number of possibilities of how the game might play out. Every decision a player makes, every spin and deflection of the ball, every instruction given by the coach, each breath of wind, every noise from the crowd that the players hear, every decision by the officials; they all come together to create a narrative, a story on a timeline across the 90 minutes that describes exactly what happened. And if you played the match a trillion times, the story would never be exactly the same twice.
This is because every variable is multiplied by every other variable to come up with the total number of possible story lines. In the infinite number of story lines a percentage of them will result in the score ending nil-nil. A different percentage will lead to 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 etc. A much smaller percentage will result in the score ending 12-7. But if it is possible that it can happen, it will happen, eventually, even if it’s a tiny percentage of the time.
Every possible outcome will be included in the percentage distribution of different scorelines that result from our near infinite number of story lines. We can look to this distribution to observe the implications of the rules of the game, the framework within which it operates. None of the story lines will end up yielding a score of 5000-0. The rules of the game are that you play for 90 minutes (plus a bit more) and that after a goal the ball gets placed back on the centre spot. The clock continues to run while the ball is returned to the middle. So there isn’t enough time for a team to score 5000 goals in a football match. That possibility exceeds the framework of the game established by the rules, so it will never happen. Nothing will ever travel faster than the speed of light.
So what are the practical implications for understanding this randomness theory? First, you understand that, fundamentally, predictions are useless. It is impossible to predict exactly what will happen because the number of actual possible story lines is almost infinite. But it is possible to guess at the pattern of likelihoods in advance. That is the best we can do, and it is what we must do.
We know that, within the framework, all the things that are possible will occur a certain percentage of times. The job of the professional gambler is to discern the pattern in the randomness; to say ‘how likely’ something is to happen. Not to say what ‘will happen’. And then to compare those perceived likelihoods against market prices.
Where the subject involves animate objects, like players, officials, fans, the pitch and weather of a football match then the pattern in the randomness cannot be projected precisely. It involves an element of guesswork. Observation, such as watching previous matches involving the teams, or analysis by looking at a league table can make the guesswork more accurate than a guess plucked from thin air. Modelling the relative strengths of the teams and the players using sophisticated analysis, and then feeding that into an engine which works out a distribution of possible scorelines can get you pretty close to projecting the percentage distribution within the infinite story lines. But it is still guesswork, even when it is very informed guesswork using a computer model.
When two boxers get into a ring the better fighter will normally win. But the rules of the ring dictate that either fighter could win. So there doesn’t have to be a ‘reason’ why Buster Douglas knocked out Mike Tyson. Randomness means that it was inevitable that it would happen at some point, if you iterated that fight over enough times. It just happened to be that night.
But where the subject involves an inanimate object such as a roulette wheel or a drum of lottery balls then we can be absolutely precise in discerning the patterns in the randomness. So long as the roulette wheel (let’s use a European wheel here with a single 0) is well made and working properly then the distribution of the ball falling into each slot will be 2.703% over an infinite number of spins of the wheel.
When a roulette wheel spins it is randomness that governs which slot it falls into. There is no memory to the wheel, no number is ‘due’ to come up just because it hasn’t come out for ages. In 1913 in the Monte Carlo Casino, the ball in a roulette wheel landed in a black slot 26 times in a row. The odds of that happening were over 67 million to 1. So while it was surprising to the onlookers (and ruinous to the ‘red backers’) the sequence was actually no more surprising than any of the other 67 million possible story lines that the 26 spins could have produced.
So the point of learning the theory of randomness is to realise that predictions are useless to a professional gambler, because they are impossible. It is impossible to see into the future. It is one of the immutable laws of nature. It is part of the framework. We need to understand that our job is not to predict, but to discern patterns in the randomness; to express how likely something is to happen, not to say what we think will happen. Once we understand this principle we can move on to Expected Value.
Positive Expected Value (EV+)
Positive Expected Value means finding investment opportunities where the odds are in your favour. It is, for instance, backing something with a 50% chance of happening at odds of 11-10.
If anything can happen (and we cannot know what is going to happen), how can we profit from betting on something that is going to take place in the future? The answer is that all you need is to be armed with an idea of how likely something is to happen, and then to know that the chance of it happening is greater than the odds being offered when you make your investment.
It’s all about the odds.
An investment is risking something in the hope of a profitable return. The profit you make when you win, divided by the amount you risked are the odds. So if you bet £100 on a horse, and it wins, and you get £400 back then your profit was £300. 300 over 100 is 3 over 1. Your odds were 3/1.
On this occasion the horse won. But how likely was it to win? If we ran the race a million times, on how many occasions would our horse win? What is the pattern in the distribution of the randomness? Let’s say out of a million races our horse wins 200,000 times. The pattern in the randomness is that our horse’s true chance of winning the race is 800,000 over 200,000. Thus the horse's true odds were 4/1.
If we bet £1 a million times on our horse at 3/1 we would lose money. We would get back £800,000 having staked £1,000,000. Our loss would be £200,000. £200,000 is 20% of £1,000,000 (apologies if this is labouring the point). 3/1 is ‘bad value’ for that horse, to the tune of 20%: the EV was only 0.8.
But if we could get 5/1 about the horse the sums become £1,200,000 return on our £1,000,000 stake. The horse becomes value, at 20%. An EV of 1.2.
When I say the ‘horse’ becomes value, I don’t really mean the horse. I mean the odds of 5/1 are value. Odds of 3/1 are not. The horse is, effectively, irrelevant. What matters are the odds that you get, not the horse itself. Any horse, no matter how slow, has a chance of winning any race that it lines up for. Those are the rules. That is the framework within which we are operating. What happens in the race on any single occasion doesn’t make the bet a bad bet. Single results don’t prove whether something was value or not, whether it was a good bet to make or a bad bet.
The truth of value investing only reveals itself over time.
There’s a paradox that gamblers have to get their head around. The difference between short-term and long-term. The only thing that matters is winning overall, in the long term. But winning on any one single occasion barely matters at all. Value investing is a war waged though a series of many, many battles. Winning or losing any single battle does not really matter. Looking back on all the battles, from a position of triumph having prevailed in the war, the fuss that you made about the loss of any single battle will seem ridiculous. Value investing is nothing to do with trying to win every battle. The only thing that matters is having the odds on your side consistently as you fight the battles, so that as the results of a great number of battles become known your superiority becomes apparent.
Even great football teams lose games. The best poker players regularly lose loads of hands. The best investors buy shares in companies who go bust. The best golfers make bogeys. Champion jockeys lose far more races than they win. Short-term losses are ultimately irrelevant. All that matters is long term overall victory.
There is a neat, simple mantra for any professional investor to adhere to:
Decisions Not Results
If you keep making the right decisions, keep betting with the odds in your favour, keep finding Positive Expected Value (EV+) then, as long as you stay in the game for the long-term, you will end up a winner.
So how do we know if odds are value? When we’re dealing exclusively with an inanimate object like a roulette wheel then we can tell for certain. While randomness dictates that the ball could land in any of the 37 slots on any given spin, we know that pattern to the randomness will play out to reveal an even 2.703% distribution in each slot over a long period. There is exactly a 36/1 chance of each slot being the winner on each spin. So to get value in betting on a single number on a roulette wheel we would need to get odds of greater than 36/1. The casino actually offers 35/1. So we can say that roulette is bad value. If you play for long enough you will lose. It is inevitable. The only exception would be if you stumbled across the equivalent of the run of 26 blacks in a row, and kept betting black. That would be the equivalent of a lottery win. Don’t hold your breath.
Poker is different. Although the cards are inanimate the other players are human, meaning that betting on hands of poker is very much chaotic and random. For a top professional player like Phil Ivey his ability to win overall at poker comes from his ability to discern the patterns in the randomness of the betting on the hands. It has nothing to do with the hands he gets dealt. Over a long term the strength of the hands he has are exactly the same as they are for any other player. It’s what he does with the betting on the hands that makes him successful.
Part of the job of understanding the randomness of poker hands comes from an understanding of the likelihood of any particular card or type of card being turned over on the flop. But it also comes from understanding opponents. How likely they are to have certain hands. Phil Ivey doesn’t know which card is going to get turned over on the flop. Nor can he know for certain which cards the other players hold. But he is able to discern enough from the hard and soft evidence at his disposal a good estimate of how likely he is to win the pot. His decision to bet or not bet is then based entirely on value. If the odds of return (the amount of money in the pot) exceeds the chance that he will win it then he bets. The exact same principle as betting on the horses. He bets when the odds are in his favour. What happens on any single hand is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is winning in the long run, winning the war. To accurately compute odds, we must take a trip to the Cote d’Azur...
Monte Carlo or Bust
Monte Carlo simulations are “computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results”, according to wikipedia. The further definition is even more off-putting for non-mathematicians, so I will spare you that! Instead, I will attempt to explain, in layman’s terms, how a Monte Carlo simulation (MC Sim) is a useful tool in determining accurate percentages and thus, true odds.
Monte Carlo Simulation: THE 2010 WORLD CUP
A good example of how you can utilise an MC Sim was how myself and the betting syndicate I advise used it for the 2010 World Cup. First, we handicap the teams in terms of goal superiority. For example, if we top rate Spain, they were on 0.00. Germany may have been 0.2 (0.2 goals inferior to Spain), Brazil 0.3, England 0.6 and so on. We then used previous World Cup data to calculate the average goals per game in first group game, second group game, third group game, quarter-final, semi-final, and final. This gave us a prediction for every group game in terms of superiority and total goals. Finally, we programmed the World Cup draw into the MC sim.
The next stage is to simply decide how many iterations (the number of times the simulation plays the tournament) and hit the Start button. Playing the World Cup 10,000 times according to the inputs gave us the percentage chance of any criteria we wished (winner, group winner, number of goals etc). As the tournament progressed, we had actual results to input as well as altered handicap marks. After every game I would generate another 10,000 iterations, get the updated percentage chances and bet accordingly. I must have played half a million World Cups!
Without an MC Sim to help you calculate EV, you can utilise the “sharp” bookmakers as the “true odds”. An MC Sim is undoubtedly ideal to predict variance, but without such an aid, your safest option is to trust your EV+ and ‘accept’ the inevitability of variance.
A real world example of this can be demonstrated by “The Best Racing System in the World” (well, possibly). This is an each-way system. The brief ‘rules’ are to back horses each-way, where the place element of the bet is EV+. These are highlighted by a simple piece of software that surveys bookmaker sites searching for odds and comparing them with the current offer with the exchanges. It is slightly more complex, but those are the bare bones. Lots of bets (sometimes hundreds) can be found in a day.
In a recent sample I saw 3,770 bets had been placed (1 pt e/w) for a profit of 1900. The system works because it calculates that there is EV+ in all of the bets at the time they are placed. In fact, the system can be improved further by laying back the win element of the bet on the exchanges (because it is the place part of the bet that holds the EV+). But, before you start clamouring for more precise details, there are notable drawbacks, primarily the logistical drawback of getting the bets on without restrictions and/or account closures.
But, more importantly, the variance with these bets is extreme and I have seen examples of 1,000+ bets making a loss despite the implicit EV+ of the proposition. That becomes psychologically demanding and leads me nicely (this hasn’t just been thrown together you know!) to the vital subject of psychology, which we will cover in detail in the next episode.
Until then...
- RC
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/benham.jpg320830Russell Clarkehttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngRussell Clarke2020-06-22 13:48:482020-06-22 13:48:48‘Money Without Work’ 6: Bond, Bloom, Benham and Buffett – Variance and EV+
In the event, I didn’t dress up for Royal Ascot, writes Tony Stafford. Lockdown Tuesday has become our day for Tesco shopping and Mrs S didn’t see any reason to alter the schedule even for a fixture she likes to visit once every year. She timed it nicely, so I was able to watch the first four races before setting off. I listened to Battaash and Nazeef, two of the endless stream of Hamdan/Jim Crowley winners, courtesy of John Hunt’s Radio Five Live Radio commentary, while the two-metre queue inched forward, and we were back just in time to see Blue Laureate trail the field for almost the entire 4,390 yards of the Ascot Stakes.
It would have been inconvenient on Tuesday, having to change out of Fashion Show week catwalk mode into car park waiting mufti halfway through the piece. So I didn’t bother.
Having missed it on Tuesday, the incentive to “Go Royal” after so many had already had their first-day home champagne parties lost its glister. Indeed that was more and more the case as the week progressed. By Thursday I was wondering how we had ever managed to get there at all in all those years. Driving across to pick up Harry and Alan; negotiating the M25; employing the well-worn but not generally-known short cuts like Watersplash Lane which leads down to the Golden Gates and doing all that to arrive by midday for a coffee in the box and a 2.30 start was always a real trial. Now we had to be ready for a start at 1.15 and I found it was almost impossible even without the travel.
Parkinson’s Law states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion” and that adage, first formulated in the 1940’s, certainly mirrors my experience of the long weeks of isolation during lockdown.
The normal Royal Ascot routine post racing always required a quick departure after the last and a brisk stroll past the community singing as the bulk of the crowd, unaware of the potential horrors of delaying, would be left behind. Talking of the singing, I wonder if the obvious changing tide of popular sentiment in the UK will ever allow such jingoistic throw-back melodies to be allowed in future, a thought that symbolically coincided with the death of Dame Vera Lynn last week at the age of 103. Even when we got back to the car park before the queues started in earnest, the M25 was still the major obstacle, and I rarely managed to get home much before 8 p.m.
One nonagenarian who would have managed to find elements of the cut-down menu to enjoy was Her Majesty, at 94 still vigorous and, in Dame Vera terms, a relative spring chicken. While denied for the first time since the War of the full Ascot experience of which she is always such a centre-piece for so many, including Mrs S., she had to find a private way of celebrating the success of her home-bred colt Tactical. How odd that she – I presume that’s where she remained after the Trooping the Colour transposition the previous weekend – was in Windsor Castle at the precise moment that her colt was winning the eponymous event!
Her carriage routinely passes along our Watersplash Lane/ Cheapside Village route. No doubt the bunting will have been out as usual last week and the locals will have been feeling among the most penalised of all those denied that early summer feeling of normality. Now, as the days grotesquely start to grow shorter, and with Coronavirus deaths finally dropping below a thousand for the past week from a peak of 6,500 in mid-April, hopes of some degree of normality are rising.
For some stables the outward impression of the status quo remains. Royal Ascot success was largely the province of the big yards, but not exclusively so. Possibly the most remarkable were the achievements of Alan King, once almost exclusively regarded as a National Hunt specialist, but now a man for all seasons.
Royal Ascot encompassed 36 races over the five days. King had runners in five races. His Tritonic finished a half-length second to Highland Chief in the one-off Golden Gates Handicap which opened Thursday’s card and 40-1 shot Painless Potter was a creditable fifth in Saturday’s Coventry Stakes which will live long in the memory. Its victor, the Clive Cox-trained Nando Parrado, ridden by Adam Kirby for Mrs Marie McCartan, a 165,000 guineas buy as a foal, won at 150-1, the longest-priced Royal Ascot winner in its history. That exceeded two 100-1’s: Fox Chapel, who won the 1990 Britannia Stakes and Flashman’s Papers in the 2008 Windsor Castle.
Nando Parrado had run two weeks previously in one of the highly-competitive Newmarket races where trainers anxious to give preps to their nominated Royal Ascot hopefuls, took advantage of being guaranteed a run. Nando Parrado finished fifth behind Bright Devil whose trainer, Andrew Balding, opted for a step up in distance in Thursday’s Chesham Stakes. He finished fifth to the promising Coolmore colt, Battleground.
As well as Nando Parrado, three other subsequent winners started in that race. The fourth, Saint Lawrence, and sixth, Jimmy Sparks, both won races impressively last week, and London Palladium, last of 11 in that debut, was a 16-1 victor at Redcar yesterday.
Amazingly all three of King’s remaining runners won the final race of their respective days. Coeur De Lion made it third time lucky in Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes; Scarlet Dragon, at 33-1, gave Hollie Doyle a first Royal Ascot success in Friday’s Duke of Edinburgh Handicap and the final accolade of the week went to the redoubtable Who Dares Wins, just too tough for The Grand Visir, ridden by Hollie’s partner Tom Marquand in the Queen Alexandra Stakes for which he was the hot favourite.
Who Dares Wins, at eight, is the oldest of the King trio and has proved durable enough to run 44 times in his long career. The others are seven, Scarlet Dragon, with 45 runs on his card, and Coeur De Lion, 35.
Let’s deal with the other two first. Scarlet Dragon had 23 of his 45 runs for Eve Johnson Houghton before switching to King three seasons ago. He won five Flat races for Eve and, until Friday, his only wins for King had been in two hurdle races. He put that right here with a spectacular run from the back of the field, Hollie emulating Hayley Turner’s repeat win for Charlie Fellowes, this time aboard Onassis, in the Sandringham Handicap, Thursday’s finale.
Coeur De Lion has been with King from the start, the son of Pour Moi winning six races, two over hurdles, three on the Flat turf and one all-weather race. Who Dares Wins, with whom he has occasionally shared a horsebox to the races, had a remarkable time of it in 2019 and the first part of this year.
He was second in the Chester Cup on his third attempt. He was fourth in 2017, third the following year, and beaten only by Making Miracles last season. Between the two later Cup efforts he’d been off the track for almost a year before finishing a warming-up third under 9st 12lb behind Coeur Blimey and the inevitable Coeur De Lion in a long-distance Newbury Handicap.
Next came the Northumberland Plate, only a third all-weather run, but in the event a second triumph with a career-defining £92k winner’s prize. After that he was fourth to the smart Withhold in a valuable (but slowly-enough-run for him) two-mile handicap and then fourth in the Group 1 two-and-a-half-miler At the Arc meeting in Longchamp before finishing seventh to Stratum in the Cesarewitch.
So now Kingy would surely be giving him a break? Certainly not! Next came, of all things for a rising eight-year-old, four chases. Second places at Kempton, then (at 2-7) Plumpton before a Grade 2 win, showing all his stamina back at Kempton. His final run, in the Ultima Handicap at the Festival, probably owed more than a sideways look to the King stable sponsors, and his 13th of 23 was probably as well as could have been expected against “proper” chasers.
In the context of this weird season, a run on March 10th happily made him one of the less ring-rusty turning out for the Queen Alexandra, whose extended two miles, five furlongs could well have been written almost specifically with his requirements in mind. It needed many of those qualities to get him home ahead of The Grand Visir, who had been good enough to win last year’s Ascot Stakes under top weight. In truth, no other outcome seemed likely once the pair stripped off to do battle up the home straight.
Who Dares Wins fully lives up to his SAS-style motto. He could easily have been a Special Forces hero. In syndicate owner Henry Ponsonby’s eyes he surely is. It was such a pity that we couldn’t be there to celebrate, apart from everything else, the most heart-warming of his 11 victories and pay tribute also to Alan King, who has kept these three veterans of 124 races going to such wonderful effect.
TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/whodareswins_RoyalAscot2020.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-06-22 07:41:192020-06-22 07:41:19Monday Musings: He Who Dares…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.
Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.
Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.
Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.
Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...
...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...
those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)
...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-06-22 07:12:042020-06-22 07:50:51Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020
I think it was almost inevitable that our third week of the month was going to struggle to live up to the exploits of the previous fortnight, but a run of results reading 212239 suggests we're still backing the right horses. Saturday's pick ran a stinker, admittedly but the form figures from the previous five days don't tell the full story either.
Monday's 11/4 runner was caught late and lost by a neck, Tuesday's win had to absorb a 15p Rule 4 deduction, we were a neck away again on Wednesday with a 7/1 chance on that occasion. We lost a photo at 7/2 by a short head on Thursday, Friday's runner blew the start and the race at the same time, whilst Saturday's pick just didn't go.
All in all, a pretty exciting week. Lots of chances to win, certainly plenty of runs for our money and despite a loss of 2.66pts on the week, our worst case scenario for June is still a return of +18.34pts.
Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.
Chris
Selections & Results : 15/06/20 to 20/06/20
15/06 : My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 16/06 : Seneca Chief @ 11/4 BOG (2.34/1 after 15p Rule 4)WON at 6/4 17/06 : Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/1
18/06 : Matewan @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 19/06 : Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 18/5
20/06 : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1
15/06/20 to 20/06/20 : 1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.66pts
June 2020 :
6 winners from 18 = 33.33% SR P/L: +26.34pts
ROI = +146.33%
2020 to date :
15 winners from 79 = 18.99% SR P/L: +12.17pts
ROI = +15.41%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
The lockdown is easing and racing will resume in Scotland from this week. Time for a trip north, then, to analyse the draw and pace data from Ayr racecourse, writes Dave Renham. As with previous articles in this series I have used some of the tools available on the Geegeez website, specifically the Draw Analyser, the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool. The main period of study goes back to 2009 but, as before, I will examine a more recent data set in detail too (2015 to 2019) where appropriate. I will be focusing once again on 8+ runner handicap races.
Ayr is a left-handed course roughly 12 furlongs in circumference and is generally considered to be a track that suits galloping types. The 5f and 6f races take place on a straight track, with longer races using the round course. As can be seen from the course map below, there are a number of undulations in the back straight and a dip then a rise in the home straight. The five furlong course is largely uphill.
Let’s start with the sprint distances:
Ayr 5 Furlong Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
Since 2009 there have been exactly a hundred qualifying races so no need for a calculator to work out the draw percentage splits! Here are the 11 year stats:
High draws have been at a disadvantage looking solely at the win percentages for each third. Looking at A/E values, these show an excellent correlation with the draw win percentages:
At the minimum trip of five furlongs, both sets of data point clearly to high draws struggling.
However, before moving on, it is important to realise that Ayr is one of the rare courses where they use three different positions for the starting stalls. Here is the breakdown for each stall position:
Ayr 5f Draw Bias when stalls are in the centre (37 races)
With the stalls in the centre the figures are quite similar to the overall ones, although higher draws seem to struggle even more.
Ayr 5f Draw Bias when stalls are stands' side (39 races)
The stalls when placed stands’ side mean that higher draws are drawn against the near rail. It seems that higher draws are more competitive in this scenario, but as a general rule the ground next to that rail looks likely to be slightly slower than the centre or far side, as such horses still struggle.
Ayr 5f Draw Bias when stalls are far side (24 races)
Low draws are drawn right next to the far rail when the stalls are placed in this position and although the data is limited, those drawn on the far side seem to enjoy a decent edge. It will be interesting to see whether the six furlong data supports this (more of that later).
Ayr 5f Draw Bias (by going and field size)
There is no clear-cut going bias, and the same is true when analysing field size data.
However, in bigger field races (16 or more runners) there have been several occasions when individual races have apparently shown a draw bias. The difficulty lies in the fact that the bias is not consistent and has no clear pattern. Having said that, of the 19 races with 16+ runners since 2009, I believe that at least twelve have shown a significant bias. I won’t go through all of that dozen, but here is a flavour:
15/9/11 – a 17 runner race where low draws seemed in charge with horses drawn 4 and 1 filling the first two places and draw 2 was back in 5th;
21/9/12 – a 16 runner race where there was an even split with eight horses going far side (low) and eight coming stands’ side (high); 5 of the first 6 home raced far side;
19/9/13 – in this 20 runner race 14 horses raced stands’ side (high) and 6 raced far side (low). 11 of the first 12 horses home raced stands’ side with the first three horses home drawn 17, 16 and 18;
20/9/13 – a 24 runner sprint where there was an even split with 12 runners coming stands’ side and 12 staying far side; 7 of the first 8 home came from the stands’ side group (high);
19/9/14 – a 20 runner race where taking non runners into account the first 8 horses home were drawn 13, 15, 4, 12, 18, 17, 11 and 20.
15/9/16 – the first 8 runners home were drawn 1, 3, 7, 2, 8, 12, 6 and 4 in a 19 runner race;
13/8/18 – 5 of the first 6 home exited from double figure draws (16 ran).
For those interested in exotic bets, if you had hedged your bets in terms of not being sure whether low or high draws would be favoured, and permed both very high draws and very low draws in straight forecasts, you would have seen a huge profit across these 19 races. Perming the four lowest draws and also the four highest draws would have produced 6 winning bets from the 19 races. Assuming an outlay of £24 per race (2 x £12 perms) the outlay on these forecasts would have been £456; but the dividends would have combined to return a whopping £1074 giving a profit of £618. As I have stated before past profits are no guarantee to future profits, but selective draw focussed forecasts have served some punters very well over the years (including me).
It is time now to break down the draw by individual stall number. I use the Geegeez Query Tool to give me the relevant data:
Profits for draws 3, 4 and 6 which given their grouping suggests again lower rather than higher draws are often the place to be.
Ayr 5f Draw Bias (2015-2019)
Homing in on a more recent data set, looking at the past five seasons (2015-2019), below are the draw splits for the 37 races that have occurred during this time frame.
As can be seen, high draws have struggled even more in recent years but, interestingly, middle draws have performed particularly well. 37 races is a relatively small sample but it does seem that middle draws currently hold sway.
The A/E values correlate with the draw segment percentages above:
Below are the five-year stats for individual stall numbers:
A blind win profit for just draws 1 and 6, those two stalls book-ending the section to be: that six-berth segment has secured 27 of the 37 races with an A/E of 1.07. Their overall strike rate is 12.2%, whereas horses drawn 7 or higher have won 10 races with a strike rate of 4.4% and an A/E of just 0.54.
Ayr 5f Pace Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
Let us look at pace and running styles now. The overall figures (2009-19) are thus:
There is a clear edge for front runners and those racing close to the pace (prominent) – as we know from previous articles this is the norm over 5f at most courses. It is not the strongest front-running bias around but still significant enough.
If we look at medium- to smaller-sized fields (8 to 12 runners) front runners seem to enjoy a slightly stronger edge:
I also had a look at the 19 races discussed earlier with big fields of 16 runners or more. Amazingly, 13 of the 19 races were won by horses that raced prominently (A/E 1.32).
I have checked ground conditions and there is nothing noteworthy to share.
Ayr 5f Draw / Pace Combinations
Finally in this 5f section a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners over this minimum distance. Remember this is looking at which third of the draw is responsible for the early leader of the race (in % terms):
I had expected this even split especially considering the variations in stalls positions.
Here is the draw/pace heat map, displaying Percentage of Rivals Beaten. A score of 0.55 or greater is material:
The image clearly shows the benefit of racing on or close to the lead, and ideally not being drawn too high.
Ayr 5f Draw / Pace Bias Conclusions
In conclusion, low to middle draws have the edge over five furlongs in handicaps of eight-plus runners. I highlighted draws 1 to 6 in the more recent 5-year data as having a definite edge over higher draws – looking at the full 11-year dataset this has been the case, too. Draws 1 to 6 have won 71 races from 600 runners (A/E 1.07); draws 7 or higher have won 29 races from 596 runners (A/E 0.56). Pace wise, front runners fare best followed by horses that race close to the pace (prominent).
*
Ayr 6 Furlong Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
The six furlong trip has had 171 qualifying races between 2009 and 2019 which equates to around 15 races per year, a decent sample. Here are the win percentages by draw third:
Low draws seem to have a small edge here and as with the 5f data high draws have had the worst of it. Having said that high draws have been at a bigger disadvantage over five furlongs than six.
Let’s look at the A/E values to see if they correlate with the draw percentages:
Low draws seem to have offered decent value overall – higher draws have a poor figure of 0.60 which is similar to their figure over the minimum (0.56).
Onto examining whether the position of the stalls have made any difference:
Ayr 6f Draw Bias when stalls are in the centre (72 races)
With the stalls in the centre it has been a very even playing field in terms of the draw over 6f.
Ayr 6f Draw Bias when stalls are stands' side (53 races)
The stalls when placed stands’ side (high) seem to put higher draws at a distinct disadvantage. This is surprising from a logic perspective, but again seems to highlight that the ground near to the stands’ rail tends to be slower than the rest of the straight track.
Ayr 6f Draw Bias when stalls are far side (45 races)
As with the 5f stats, the 6f results give those horses drawn next to the far rail (low) a decent edge. However, before we get too excited, in 2019 there were no races at all with the stalls placed on the far side over five or six furlongs. I am not sure why this was the case: what does seem to be happening is that, as the years go by, more races are seeing the stalls placed in the centre of the course. In 2019 over 5f and 6f just under 70% of all races had the stalls placed in the centre. I wonder if course officials are attempting to make sprint races ‘fairer’ in their eyes by trying to encourage horses to come down the centre of the track.
Time to look at how individual draw positions performed over the 1- year period between ’09 and ‘19:
As you would expect with so many races very few stalls show a blind profit; draws 26 and 27 are two of the three but from very small samples. Draws 1 to 4 have fairly decent A/E values which is worth noting.
It could be reasonably argued that a draw close to either rail is an advantage. To that end, field size does seem to have some impact – in smaller fields of 8 to 10 runners high draws have struggled, winning just 14 of 82 races (SR 17.1%) with an A/E of 0.43. In big field races (16+) higher draws have performed much better, winning roughly a third of the 38 races (13 wins).
In terms of ground conditions it seems that lower draws enjoy more of an edge when the ground eases. There have been 78 races on ground described as good to soft or softer over 6f since 2009, of which low draws have won 36 (SR 46.2%). The A/E value is positive, too, at 1.14.
One of the biggest sprint handicaps of the year occurs at Ayr over 6f - the Ayr Gold Cup - run towards the end of September. In addition to the Gold Cup, there are two consolation races – the Silver Cup and the Bronze Cup. Traditionally, the Gold and Silver Cups are raced on the Saturday with the Bronze Cup on the Friday.
Since 2009 there have been ten renewals of each race at Ayr (the 2017 Bronze and Silver Cups were not run due to the meeting being abandoned, while the Gold Cup was switched that year to Haydock). These races always have big fields (average field size is 25) and hence the draw can potentially play a big part. Looking at the races in detail I would estimate that 20 of the 30 races (66.6%) displayed a draw bias; be it one third strongly favoured, or one third being strongly disadvantaged. Earlier in the article it was noted with bigger field 5f races that draw biases had the potential to occur, and we are seeing a similar pattern here.
Unfortunately, just like the 5f races, it has not been easy to predict which part of the track, if any, will be favoured. Having said that digging deeper has uncovered a potential opportunity. Seven of the Bronze Cups seemed to show a draw bias; when this draw bias occurred, the same or a very similar bias occurred the same year in the Silver Cup in four of the seven corresponding races. In the four years where the Bronze and Silver Cups had similar draw biases, the Gold Cup displayed a similar bias in three of them and, it could be argued, in the fourth as well. The best example of this happened in 2016:
In the 2016 Bronze Cup it was clear high draws were at a disadvantage. Seven of the first eight horses home were drawn in single figures (5, 7, 8, 17, 6, 1, 9, 3) – 24 ran; in the Silver Cup the following day, low to middle held sway again with five of the first eight home drawn in single figures and best finish from the top third of the draw was 9th (25 ran). The Gold Cup which followed just over an hour later saw low to middle again in charge with draw 8 beating 6 with 7 back in third; draws 11, 10, 14 and 4 filled the next four places (23 ran). Again, there was no sign of a horse from the top third of the draw.
Ayr 6f Draw Bias (2015-2019)
Onto the last five seasons now for 6f handicaps at Ayr. There have been 79 qualifying races since 2015, with the draw splits as follows:
High draws have really struggled in recent years. Consequently, to some degree, low draws have had the best of it.
The A/E values (2015-2019) underpin that notion:
There is an excellent correlation between the draw third percentages and the A/E values which adds confidence to the data.
Now a look at the individual draw figures for this latest 5-year period:
Draws 2, 4, 5 and 6 have all shown a profit in the win market, again highlighting the low draw edge in recent years. Those drawn 21+ in very big fields have also performed well from a small number of qualifying races.
Ayr 6f Pace Bias
Below is a breakdown of pace and running styles. Here are the overall numbers going back to 2009:
These figures show that front runners have an edge and it is a similar edge to the one such forward-going types enjoy over five furlongs.
In big field races the edge for front runners is wiped out, and looking at the data for the Bronze, Silver and Gold Cups, horses that raced mid-pack have definitely over-performed albeit from a relatively small sample of 30 races.
When the going gets testing the front running bias has increased. There have been 40 races on soft or heavy ground since 2009 and here are the pace splits (NB. One dead heat):
The further you are from the early pace the worse it seems to be on soft or heavy going.
Ayr 6f Draw / Pace Combinations
A final table in the 6f section is a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners in 6f handicaps (2009 – 2019):
It is interesting seeing more low drawn horses getting to the lead over 6f. I'm not sure why that is and, as stated earlier, considering the fact there are three varying stalls locations, one would have expected a more even split.
Again, the heat map highlights the benefit of being forwardly placed, and the difficulty that high drawn later runners have experienced.
Ayr 6f Draw / Pace Bias Conclusions
In conclusion, lower draws have held sway over the last decade or so with the bias seemingly getting stronger in the past five seasons. High draws have really struggled recently except when the stalls have been placed in the centre. The shame for draw bias fans, as I noted earlier, is that more and more races seem to have the stalls placed in the centre over 6f at Ayr. Pace wise, it is again those racing on the front end who have the upper hand and this seems to strengthen as the ground gets softer.
*
Ayr 7 furlongs Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
The seven-furlong trip takes in the round course with low draws positioned next to the inside rail. There is a sharp turn soon after the start where runners can get fanned quite wide into the home straight.
170 handicap races have been run with eight or more runners since 2009. Here is the draw breakdown:
That is about as even a split as you could get! So low draws, despite potentially having the chance to take the shortest route around the turn, do not have any obvious advantage. Onto the A/E values:
A commensurately even set of figures, as might be expected. The market looks to have it pretty much spot on.
However, field size does seem to matter from a draw perspective as races with 12 or more runners illustrates:
As the field size increases so horses drawn wider start to be disadvantage. This makes sense as the widest drawn horses are likely to have to run further if staying out wide on the track, or risk trouble in running if making their way towards the inside rail. The A/E figures correlate with the draw percentages for these bigger fields.
Looking now at ground conditions, high draws also seem to struggle as the ground gets softer. On soft or heavy ground there have been 43 races with the following draw splits:
The A/E values correlate neatly once again:
So although the basic statistics suggested little interest from a draw perspective, we can see that in bigger fields and on soft/heavy ground high draws do seem at a disadvantage.
Combining 12+ fields on soft or heavy has seen only 20 races but the bias against high draws is clear to see with just two victories from that third of the draw (10 wins for low draws and 8 for middle draws).
Let us look at the individual draw positions next:
Little to report here as one might expect – just stall 8 in profit which essentially is down to chance.
It is time to check out the more recent subset of data, from 2015 onwards. There have been 97 qualifying races giving the following draw breakdown:
This correlates strongly with the 11-year full set, with an extremely level playing field in terms of the draw. The A/E values again match up with the draw percentage figures:
For what they are worth here are the individual draw positions:
Randomly, four stalls are in profit; but that is all that it is... random.
On soft/heavy ground in the last five seasons high draws have struggled, as they did when examining the 11-year stats – they've recorded just four wins from 22 races (18.2%). Low draws dominated this period winning 13 of the 22 races (59.1%). Likewise, in bigger fields (12+ runners) high draws have found it hard winning just six of the 34 races (17.6%).
Ayr 7f Pace Bias
A look at the overall pace data now (2009-2019):
Front runners seem to have a slightly stronger edge when compared to the two sprint distances. The 1.41 A/E value is above the average A/E for all UK courses over 7f which stands at 1.26, as is the IV score of 1.80 (UK course average IV for front runners in 7f handicaps is 1.63).
As a reminder, over six furlongs the edge for front runners seemed stronger on soft/heavy going, and that seems to be the case here, too. The sample size is 42 races:
1.82 is a noteworthy A/E value, and is coupled with a score above 2.0 for Impact Value. This is material.
Ayr 7f Draw / Pace Combinations
Finally over 7f a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners in 8+runner handicaps (2009 – 2019). One might have expected low draws to lead more often as they have the inside berths:
These figures surprised me – clearly for some reason jockeys drawn low are not taking advantage of the inside rail. This is also the case in bigger field races where low drawn runners only take the lead 30.8% of the time.
The heat map below - all 8+ runner 7f handicaps - shows clearly where you need to be: front rank and drawn low to middle.
Ayr 7f Draw / Pace Bias Conclusions
To conclude, over 7f the draw in general is extremely fair, but on soft/heavy ground or when the field size reaches 12 or more, higher draws then start to be at a disadvantage. Pace wise it is front runners who are clearly best.
*
Ayr 1 mile Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)
With this article on the long side I am going to very briefly look at one more distance: the 1 mile trip. I will start by looking at the 2009-2019 data. There are 167 races in the sample, giving the following draw splits:
There is no clear draw bias on the basis of these stats and, sadly, digging deeper unearthed no pleasant surprises like there were over 7f.
However, going back to the late 1990s, this mile trip had a significant bias to those drawn next to the inside rail (low). I will use the 5-year comparison data method I used in the second Chester article to illustrate how the bias has essentially all but disappeared.
To recap, using 5-year data sets is a good way to try and compare any shift more effectively than simply looking at single years. This method highlights where patterns or biases are changing, as well as giving more reliable sample sizes. So here are the Ayr 1 mile figures going right back to the first data set (1997 to 2001):
As the table shows, low draws completed dominated until about 2005; since then the advantage gradually began to level and, for a while, low draws actually produced the lowest percentage of winners. In the last two or three seasons there has been a slight resurgence but, essentially, the days when I used to make money from the draw at this particular course and distance are long gone.
The reason? Difficult to say unequivocally but, interestingly, the maximum field size changed in 2006 from 20 to just 14. That might well be the material factor.
Ayr 1 Mile Draw / Pace Combinations
A quick look pace wise at the 1 mile trip but the front running edge seen at 5 to 7f is no longer prevalent.
Prominent runners arguably have a slight edge while front runners find it far harder to win over this extra furlong.
The draw / pace heat map confirms the generally fairer distribution of performance in terms of stall location and run style in Ayr mile handicaps.
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I hope this article offers some helpful pointers now racing resumes at Ayr; I will be eagerly awaiting the 3 day September meeting which is one of my favourites, but there could be plenty of benefit between now and then, especially if the weather turns wet!
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AyrDrawBias.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2020-06-19 16:43:082020-06-19 16:45:08Ayr Draw & Pace Bias
The fourth day of five at Royal Ascot, and the last for which I offer my tuppence worth; Friday's highlights include the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes and the headline Group 1 Commonwealth Cup. Yum!
Proceedings commence a little more humbly, however, with the...
1.15 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (5f, Class 2, 3yo)
Yet another special race this year to start us off is this five-furlong three-year-old handicap. Draw and pace could be material, the map of both looking like this:
One of the features of this big field is the amount of forward-going types, even in the context of a sprint over the minimum. So, whilst early pace might normally be a key to winning, I'll be looking for a horse to finish off through tiring rivals: the race could change complexion markedly in the last half furlong.
The favourite, and a strong favourite at that, is Art Power. The Kingpower-owned, Tim Easterby-trained runner has won his last two in sensational style and might just be superior to handicap grade. But he's 2/1 or so in a field of a score and more.
Around about him in the high numbers are a couple that may be able to give us a thrill at a more working person's price. Keep Busy won one of those slightly sub-par French minor pattern events last backend and has already had two races since the resumption; as such, she's more match fit than most. She didn't seem to get home over Newcastle's straight six but ran well in second in the Listed Scurry Stakes over Sandown's five last time. She's 16/1.
And in the highest stall of all is Mighty Spirit, trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Megan Nicholls. This Acclamation filly held her form really well in making the first two six times from nine runs, including the Listed Marygate Stakes, last season. She also ran fine races when sixth of 25 in the Queen Mary and third of 24 in the Weatherby's Super Sprint. She's tough and consistent and has a bit of class. She's also an 16/1 chance.
One other to throw into the pot at a big price is Flippa The Strippa. Trained by Charlie 'Battaash' Hills, her form tailed off towards the end of last season, but she was good enough early on to win the Listed National Stakes at Sandown. If she's benefited from the break she will be finishing on the far side better than many and is available at 28/1.
There are eighteen I haven't mentioned.
It's a good sprint handicap is this, with Art Power the obvious one who might just be too good for them. If he's not, I'll take a chance with two drawn high in Mighty Spirit and Keep Busy.
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1.50 Albany Stakes (Group 3, 6f, 2yo fillies)
Six furlongs and two-year-old fillies, plenty of whom either won't get home or are not good enough. Wesley Ward's Flying Alaetha is the early favourite, but this turning five furlong dirt winner may not appreciate any rain. In any case it is impossible to quantify her form in the context of an Albany, though we know Ward is 0-for-10, just one placed, with seven of them sent off at single figure odds. Not for me.
Aidan O'Brien is only 1-for-15, though he has had four further placed runners. The winner, Brave Anna, was sent off at 16/1. APOB has had fillies beaten at 5/4, 11/8, 7/4, 2/1 twice and 5/2. Caution is therefore advised about Mother Earth, for all that the sins of her mothers should not necessarily be vested upon her.
Winners of this race have often come at prices, so it might pay to take a chance on something further down the lists. The one with form on the soft side is Golden Melody, trained by William Haggas and ridden by James Doyle. She won her sole start on Haydock's good to soft terrain, seeing off Star Of Emaraaty et al by more than two lengths. She is a natural for the shortlist having stretched away takingly there.
Mark Johnston won this two years ago with Main Edition, and he saddles Ventura Vision. Her sire, No Nay Never, has a fair record with soft ground two-year-olds running six furlongs; she can be expected to be a lot better under these conditions than a Chelmsford second might imply.
But perhaps the man to follow is Mick Channon. He of the windmill celebration of yesteryear has won three Albany Stakes and enjoyed another two placed runners from 16 sent to post. Thus, his entry Mahale commands respect. Only fourth on debut, she stayed on pretty well over five good to firm furlongs at Newmarket that day, a race which has already thrown three winners from four runners further back in the ruck. That great late work, allied to the extra furlong and her trainer's record makes 25/1 very interesting.
There are lots of other interesting candidates in a race where only the outsider has run more than once. But, given that half of the 18 Albany winners to date returned 10/1 or bigger, including 16/1 three times, 20/1 and 50/1, I'm playing 25/1 Mahaleeach way with four places. 8/1 Golden Melody may be the best value from the top shelf.
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2.25 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2, 5f, 2yo)
Another juvenile heat, this time the fast five of the Norfolk. If the Albany often goes to a price, this Group 2 has tended to be a top of the market affair, two-thirds of the winners since 1999 returning 6/1 or shorter. The race has been a platform for stallions such as Dutch Art, No Nay Never, Johannesburg and Approve, and perhaps another will promote his claims for the breeding sheds at this early career juncture.
This is a race in which Wes has gone well, with a pair of winners from seven starters. Likewise, Aidan, whose haul reads 3 from 20, 6 more placed, a run that started with the magnificent Johannesburg.
Favourite, and short enough at 6/4, is Eye Of Heaven. The Mark Johnston runner beat Get It - fourth in the Windsor Castle earlier in the week - on their respective debuts, and they had subsequent Windsor Castle winner Tactical behind them in third. It is fair to say that that was an above average novice. Eye Of Heaven did it comfortably enough there and probably deserves to be jolly in spite of ground conditions being potentially quite different here; whether you're excited by an offer close to evens is another question. I am not especially. It does mean that the rest are varying degrees of each way prices.
Wesley runs Golden Pal, a son of Uncle Mo who didn't get home over four-and-a-half furlongs on debut at Gulfstream; how he'll handle the straight five is up for grabs. Although Ward has a solid history in the race, his recent Royal Ascot record is less good: a seven-runner washout last year and just one from nine in 2018. He is eminently capable of delivering winners on this stage, but they're all plenty short enough against the recent macro.
Like Golden Pal, Aidan's runner, Lipizzaner is also an Uncle Mo child: he's found one too good on both starts to date, but has shown both ground versatility and the ability to deal with a big field. His trainer won the Norfolk in 2015 and 2017 and should be on the premises once more.
The Lir Jet looked very good when romping his debut at Yarmouth and has since been acquired by Qatar Racing. Still trained by Michael Bell, whose two previous Norfolk entries ran second and third, but as far back as 2003 and 2006, the Jet will have to cope with better opposition and softer turf; but he is very quick and he might just do it.
From a very small sample, the juvenile progeny of Due Diligence have done really well on softish ground and that is a nod to Jo Jo Rabbit, a four-length winner on his second and most recent start.
This is a race that revolves around Eye Of Heaven who could be very smart and may just win. But his price offers nothing to value players given how many unexposed and well-bred rivals square up. In that spirit, I'll take a chance that 6/1 The Lir Jet can handle these conditions, and will have a small each way stab at 14/1 Jo Jo Rabbit, whose trainer Archie Watson can ready a rapid juvie. Four places, more if you can find 'em!
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3.00 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2, 1m4f, 4yo+)
A mile and a half Group 2 for older horses, and a race in which Sir Michael Stoute has a stranglehold: he's won no fewer than eight since 2006! Of course, that would be too easy... he doesn't have a runner this year!!
Mark Johnston is a four-time winner, though the last of that quartet was in 2005. He's only saddled four runners since, including Universal who was third in 2013. Communique was last a year ago. That one lines up again this time but it is his stablemate Elarqam who appeals more. That one, a Frankel half-brother to Maydanny, who ran earlier in the week, amongst others, just failed to peg back Lord North on his seasonal debut.
Lord North was a clear-cut victor in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday, beating Addeybb, who Elarqam had behind him when winning the York Stakes. In between times, he was third in the Group 1 Juddmonte International and, while stamina has to be taken on trust, his form looks as good as any in the field.
Last year's Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck, is an obvious alternative. However, in six post-Epsom runs he's yet to revisit the winner's enclosure; and the fact that there was a mere three-quarters of a length covering the first five casts a further fog of doubt over the form. If that wasn't enough, he was also thumped in the King George over course and distance, though in his defence that may have come soon enough after two Derby efforts - he was runner up in the Irish Derby between Epsom and Ascot.
Defoe won this race last year, looking like a progressive horse in the process. Things haven't really panned out that way in three races since, however, including a further run over track and trip so he, too, has a little prove.
A winner over course and distance last October was Morando, and by six lengths, too, in a Group 3. This is a step up in grade with the ground likely to be a little less testing and he has a bit to find with an 'A game' Defoe on last year's Hardwicke form. That said, if it was very wet, he'd come into play.
Hamish steps into Group company for the first time, the William Haggas-trained four-year-old progressing through the handicap ranks last season. He needs to find nearly a stone with Elarqam.
Talking of progressive four-year-olds, Fanny Logan won a trio of Listed races last term, and then a Group 3 before running an excellent three-length fourth in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita. She was patently given too much to do on her seasonal bow at Haydock and, bred for the trip, is more interesting than many in receipt of her gender allowance.
Of the monster prices, Alounak's overseas form - in any of Germany, Canada or America - would give him an outside chance of making the first four. Remember, the Hungarian Nagano Gold nearly took the whole enchilada in last year's race, failing by only a half length at whopper prices.
At the risk of egg on face for a second time this week, I'm against a Ballydoyle favourite. I much prefer 3/1 ELARQAM to Anthony Van Dyck and have backed him accordingly. 17/2 Fanny Logan is playable each way and the big swingers might try 50/1 Alounak.
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3.35 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1, 6f, 3yo)
This newish race, now in its sixth year, has been a hit from the get go. Winners like Muhaarar, Caravaggio and Advertise (pictured, top) have scorched the Ascot turf in dazzling victories.
Top rated this year is the filly Millisle on 115. She was sent off 4/1 for the 1000 Guineas but clearly didn't stay the trip and this looks much more appropriate. She raced exclusively at five and six furlongs last term, winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park amongst others. Sprinting is her game and, if the exertions of two trips across the Irish Sea for two races in a fortnight don't fatigue her, she is the one to beat. Her profile mimics that of last year's winner, Advertise, who put a non-staying Guineas run to bed in this.
Favoured is Pierre Lapin, unbeaten in two including a Group 2 at Newbury last September. He's been off for nine months, though most of Roger Varian's have been forward enough on their first run of the year. He has a few pounds to find with Millisle on form though clearly has scope to progress after just two spins.
Golden Horde had a few goes as a juvenile, winning the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and running close up behind Earthlight twice, including in the G1 Middle Park last backend. Again, fitness must be taken on trust.
Wesley Ward has brought the rapid filly Kimari across. She was a head second to Raffle Prize in the Queen Mary here last June and a staying on fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in November. She opened her account over six furlongs in April and certainly has credentials to get involved: unlike many of Wesley's she settles well so Frankie will have every chance.
Lope Y Fernandez is another who comes from an abortive Guineas bid, this time in the Irish 2000 where he was a trouble-making third to Siskin. His sprint form was good last year though not quite at the level of a couple of these.
France is represented by Wooded, a six-furlong Group 3 winner last month. As you'll know if you've been reading these previews all week, I'm not a big fan of the French flat form just now, and am carpet opposing this colt on that basis. His form is at lower Group level anyway.
Remember when Mum's Tipple blitzkrieged his field by eleven lengths at York last year? He's been whacked twice since, most recently when not at all at the races in the 2000 Guineas, but a repeat of that effort on the Knavesmire would likely be just about enough.
This is another cracking serving of the Commonwealth Cup with lashings of speed and more than a little spice. I think it might go the way of the fillies and, to that end, I like both 7/1 Kimari and 11/1 Millisleto show the boys the way home.
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4.10 Queen's Vase (Group 2, 1m6f, 3yo)
A recognised St Leger trial these days but it arrives ahead of the Derby in this topsy-turvy 2020. In point of fact, the Queen's Vase has actually become a top class rehearsal for future Cup horses, with all of Estimate, Stradivarius, Leading Light and Kew Gardens prevailing since 2012. What a National Hunt stallion Stradivarius is going to make! 😉
Since 1998, three trainers have operated a near cartel on the Vase: Mark Johnston has recorded seven scores, Aidan O'Brien six, and Sir Michael Stoute four. SMS is unrepresented this season as, remarkably, is 'Always Trying' (to win the Queen's Vase). Thankfully, APOB runs a pair.
Santiago is the choice of Ryan Moore, the son of Authorized stepping up from a mile and looking bred to appreciate it. He'll need to, though, as his form to date is only average.
Frankie Dettori is enjoying plenty of Ballydoyle partnerships as a result of the Irish/overseas riders having to go through quarantine, and he's on Nobel Prize, a brother to Highland Reel, Idaho and Cape Of Good Hope. He, too, steps up from a mile and he, too, has a pedigree that screams improvement. Those siblings really catch the eye and I expect this fellow to be a player.
Born With Pride is the favourite, trained by William Haggas. He won a Listed race over a mile on heavy ground on his career debut, testament to the esteem within which he is presumed to be held. It must have been a little disappointing, then, that he could only trail home seventh of nine on his next and most recent run 16 days ago; though that lifetime bow augurs talent, he's not much of a price on the recovery trail.
Godolphin's Al Dabaran was beaten in two back end runs in France so, while my casual dismissal of such form lines is going to go bad at some point, he's readily overlooked for all that he is the highest rated in the field and has a nice staying pedigree. He's had more tries than many of his rivals and my guess is that some will improve past him for this far greater test of stamina.
Berkshire Rocco is really interesting. Trained by last year's winning handler, Andrew Balding, he comes here from the Lingfield Derby Trial, a route trodden by four Queen's Vase winners since 2002. None of that quartet ran better than second at Lingfield, the position Berkshire Rocco occupied behind English King, himself favourite in most lists for the Derby. Rocco was seven lengths and more ahead of the rest of the Derby Trial field.
The remainder make limited appeal.
A fascinating race as always, and one in which the top three in the market have won 19 of the last 23 renewals. There are five horses vying for favouritism, the best backed being Born With Pride, Santiago and Nobel Prize. The weakness of Berkshire Rocco does put me off and, because of that, I'm siding with Nobel Prize, who comes from an excellent family, looks certain to stay well, handles give, and gets Mr Ascot, Frankie Dettori, on top. He's 11/2 in a few places.
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4.40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2 Handicap, 1m4f, 3yo+)
Friday ends with a big field mile and a half handicap. Keep in mind the weird draw bias against the low numbers. This PRB3 chart illustrates things clearly, with the dark blue line representing big fields, actual draw, and ground between good and soft.
Three trainers have impeccable records: Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Hughie Morrison.
Now't from Stoute once more, and just a single arrow for Mark Johnston, the poorly-drawn (stall three) West End Charmer. A four-time winner last season, all in smallish fields, this is a different task from a tough post.
Durston also has an ostensibly poor draw in four, though he too has form credentials. He actually won over nearly two miles last year and that leads me to wonder whether he'll quite have the boot for this, especially if needing to thread a passage on the inside.
Hughie, whose Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes record is three winners from six runners - wow - saddles Le Don De Vie. Exiting from stall ten - plum - he has Ryan Moore booked for the steering job, not that I'm saying it will be a steering job, you understand! Don was a three-time winner last season on the undulations of Epsom (twice) and Goodwood. This more conventional track shouldn't pose a problem, nor should a nearer-front-than-back run style.
Hereby, a misser of the cut earlier in the week, gets in this time and bids to extend her winning sequence to five. Again this is a much bigger field but she had the speed to win around Chester and the stamina to score in Listed company over 1m6f on soft ground during that victory roll so she's not underestimated. Trap nine is workable, though the last single digit stall winner was in 2008.
Frankie and Johnny partner with El Misk, ideally housed in 15 and with a prominent racing style. He has, however, done all his winning - three of them - on all weather surfaces, and has earned joint top weight in that process. He won't shock if he wins but he's not for me at the price.
At a much bigger quote, Indianapolis can outrun his odds. A course and distance winner off 95 last summer, he is just four pounds higher here; he has a wide draw in 19 - last five winners drawn 12, 14, 19, 19, 21 - and represents a trainer, James Given, with a fine record in staying races in the past two years (five wins from 25 runs, four more placed, A/E 2.34, IV 1.85). Jockey Ben Curtis is hardly a negative.
Sixteen more with chances!
Obviously a head-scratcher of a chin-stroker of a brow-furrower of a puzzle. At the prices, always at the prices, I'm settling on 12/1 Le Don De Vie for Le Don de D(ukeofedinburghstakes), Hughie Morrison; and 33/1 Indianapolisfor another shrewd outfit, extra places aforethought.
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And that's that for this week. Saturday's eight race jamboree will be a case of every many and woman for themselves. It might well be the case that such news is a merciful outcome after four days of reading through my losers. Regardless of win or lose, the effort and thought poured in is always the same: sometimes we are made to look good, more often to look somewhere between daft and imbecilic. Such is the folly of publicly nominating gambling outcomes. Happily, you, dear reader, are cut from the kind of considered cloth that takes the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune as part and parcel of racing's wagering fabric. Or, in plain English, you get it.
I very much hope you've got it - or at least got some of it - this week.
Humpback Day at Royal Ascot, perhaps better known as Gold Cup Day, and another seven head-scratchers for punters to unravel. The feature is the Group 1 for stayers and there is a trio of handicaps, and a similar number of minor pattern events, in support.
1.15 Golden Gates Handicap (1m2f, Class 2, 3yo)
Another of the 'for one year only' races gets us underwat, this time the ten furlong three-year-old Golden Gates Handicap, a boon for those too slow for the Brittania and lacking the stamina for the Duke Of Edinburgh. The Royal Ascot Ryanair if you will. There is not much in the way of draw and pace data to go on for fields of this size though what there is suggests a largely fair go for all.
With horses qualifying for a mark after just two runs at the moment there is even less to go on than your average early season three-year-old handicap. Regular readers will know that these events are a weakness for me so what follows will be mercifully brief:
Maori Knight has shown he can handle a little cut in the ground, and that he stays. He may try to lead from the front, which won't be easy but you'll at least get a run for your money at around 9/1.
And the 20/1 Yoshimi might be generous if there is any further rain. He stayed on nicely enough into third behind Palace Pier at Newcastle over a mile last time and is bred more for this trip.
Let's move on...
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1.50 Wolferton Stakes (Listed, 1m2f, 4yo+)
An immediate comparison with the preceding three-year-old handicap is offered by the Wolferton Stakes run 35 minutes later over the same course and distance. The Wolferton at least has a historical profile for all that it's morphed from a handicap (from inception in 2002) to a pattern race since 2018. Indeed, it was won last year by none other than Addeybb, subsequent dual Group 1 winner.
John Gosden has a peerless record in the Wolferton, winning it four times since 2011, and he is doubly represented, by Dubai Warrior and Crossed Baton. The latter, winner of the Listed Churchill Stakes on the Lingfield all weather last autumn, is the chosen mount of Frankie Dettori. Second in last year's course and distance Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, he probably wouldn't want it too soft but has otherwise fair credentials.
Rab Havlin reunites with Dubai Warrior, on whom he won twice before Christmas including in this grade. Frankie rode the Warrior last time when he added a Group 3 to complete an all-weather hat-trick but he was well beaten on his only turf run, in a French Group 3.
Top rated is Regal Reality, whose 119 figure is deserving of Group 2 company if taken at face value. Third to Enable and Magical in last season's Group 1 Eclipse, he also wasn't beaten far in the G1 Juddmonte International. With both of those top level races being the same range as this Listed event, Regal Reality has outstanding form claims. His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has won this twice in the past, and yet his runner is only the third choice in the betting.
Favourite at time of writing (Tuesday afternoon) is Fox Tal, a four-year-old son of Sea The Stars trained by Andrew Balding. He's got form on all ground, was third in a Saint-Cloud Group 1 at the trip and has Silvestre driving. He's been off for eight months, though, and is short enough to my eye.
Sandwiched between the Fox and Reality, in market terms at least, is Sir Dragonet, runaway winner of last year's Chester Vase. He was then a very close fifth in the Derby before flattening out a little in two subsequent 2019 outings. He has had a livener this season, when second at Naas in late March, and is a definite contender.
The rest are 16/1 and bigger and, of them, King Ottokar will handle give better than most, as he did when third in the Hampton Court Stakes last year. He becomes interesting given the weather..
I fear Sir D and Crossed Baton but I think Regal Reality's form looks very strong for the grade. If he's straight enough and if it hasn't got too wet, which it might have, for this 2020 debut he should be bang there, and 15/2 is playable.
If the rain has come in any quantity, King Ottokar is value on his Royal Ascot run last year at 16/1, 5 places with sky.
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2.25 Jersey Stakes (Group 3, 7f, 3yo)
Another slightly betwixt and between sort of race is the Jersey: since the six-furlong Commonwealth Cup emerged as a powerhouse Group 1 alongside the established mile races for the Classic generation, the Jersey perhaps finds itself a tad marooned. Nevertheless, it will welcome another fullish field in 2020 and remains solidly worthy of its Group 3 status.
Richard Fahey has won this twice from just five runners, Ribchester in 2016 and Space Traveller last year. As such, his Ventura Lightning is interesting. This will be the grey son of No Nay Never's first attempt beyond six furlongs and, out of an El Prado mare, there is scope for improvement. Ventura enjoyed a satisfactory warm up in the Group 3 Pavilion Stakes at Newcastle a fortnight ago which ought to have brought him to concert pitch. He's a general 20/1 chance.
The market is headed by the unbeaten-in-two Gosden/Dettori entry, King Leonidas, a son of Kingman out of a black type-winning Galileo mare: nice! He's laughed at his rivals in a brace of Newmarket novices, the form of the first of which has worked out poorly and the second of which has yet to be tested. He is clearly talented; his street smarts for a big-field class elevation have to be taken on trust.
Second choice Molatham can count a seven-furlong verdict over Wichita amongst his four career starts. Trained by Roger Varian for Sheikh Hamdan, and ridden by Jim Crowley, he perhaps didn't get home when trying a mile for the first time on his final run of last term; the drop back to seven looks right though he will have to overcome a 250-day layoff.
Aidan O'Brien runs the American Pharoah colt, Monarch Of Egypt, just six days after his midfield finish in the Irish 2000 Guineas. That was a terribly messy race and the Monarch had no run at all. His form did tail off a little last season after a couple of close finishes with Irish 2000 winner Siskin, a level that would put him in the photo if reproduced two grades lower here.
With cross-channel interloper Celestin the question is whether you believe his run behind Victor Ludorum in the French 2000 Guineas. If you do, he's probably the bet, the winner's form being just about bombproof. But with second favourite Ecrivain running no sort of race, and most of the rest behind him unfancied, it looks a little questionable. What we can say is that Celestin can quicken off steady fractions and handles softer ground.
2019 Gimcrack second, Lord Of The Lodge, steps up to seven for the first time. That form behind Threat stands comparison but this straight test will ask questions of a fairly pacy pedigree (though he does have Cape Cross as mum's dad).
The Richard Hughes-trained Mister Snowdon is quite interesting at a bit of a price. He is unbeaten in two runs, a feature of both being how he has quickened from off the pace to win going away. The most recent of the pair was at Yarmouth - another straight seven - and, while this is a big step up, I like that sectional profile. There are many others to consider in a hard to call affair.
Having a bet in here is somewhere on the brave-foolhardy continuum and you'll better understand towards which end you reside once the result has been established. There would be few complete surprise winners and, as such, it might be worth tilting at a couple of windmills. Monarch Of Egypt can go well, but I'll chance Mister Snowdon and Ventura Lightning for beer tokens only. [I recognise the general weakness of my fancies in these previews, but it needs to be understood that they are a devilish set of conundrums, most of which constitute some form of vanity punting. To come out in front we'll need to be very lucky as well as pretty good]
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3.00 Chesham Stakes (Listed, 7f, 2yo)
The longest two-year-old race of the week is the seven-furlong Chesham Stakes. While the distance may be the same as the preceding Jersey Stakes, comparison across age groups make little sense. Nine once-raced juveniles - seven colts, two fillies - go to post.
The Charlie Appleby-trained Shamardal colt Modern News looks a worthy favourite based on the form seen to date. He needed almost every inch of Newmarket's six furlongs to get by the leader on debut and, with his trainer having an astonishing 33% strike rate second time out, he'll take a lot of beating. The fact that a certain Pinatubo scored for the same connections last season should not be overlooked.
But, naturally, it's deeper than one horse. Ballydoyle are represented by Battleground in a race they've previously won four times, including in 2016 (with subsequent dual 2000 Guineas scorer, Churchill) and 2017. Battleground, like Churchill, arrives here off the back of a debut defeat; and, like Churchill, was allowed to find his stride on that opening day and finish off his race. The first son of the outstanding race mare Found, he is certain to be much better than he's shown so far.
The Andrew Balding-trained Bright Devil was something of a shock debut scorer, coming home at 25/1 that day, but with his handler having a 20% second time out record, the son of Dark Angel can be expected to show improved form (like pretty much all of them, to one degree or another). He made all last time, which will be a difficult challenge over seven furlongs here.
Mark Johnston trained the Chesham winner three times in four years at the turn of the century, but has had little luck since: he's nought from twenty since 2003, just three places. That run includes nine at a single figure price, one of them sent off at 5/4. Tentatively stepping out of that shadow is Golden Flame, a son of Golden Horn who ran second on debut at Haydock. A second season sire, Golden Horn didn't have his first winner until July last year, and those are enough reasons for me to oppose this fellow at this stage of his career.
First Prophet, trained by Charlie Fellowes, is a son of first season sire New Bay, himself second in the French 2000 Guineas, winner of the Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Niel and third in Golden Horn's Arc. His five runners in UK and Ireland to date have yielded two winners and a further place. Regardless of how First Prophet performs, and he'll likely find one or two too good, New Bay is a sire to keep on side, for now at least.
Richard Hannon has enough juveniles to know which are the best in the yard, and Concessions gets the nod here. Winner of a three-horse race at Chelmsford (Seattle Rock last) on his sole spin thus far, it is not easy to quantify that form in the context of a Chesham: the trainer's five previous runners in this were all sent off at big prices, four of them running creditably in fourth or fifth of double-digit fields.
Hannon also saddles the New Approach colt, Clarendon Cross, who was doing his best work at the finish over seven panels at Haydock (March Law fourth). Although he bungled the start there, he was still beaten nearly four lengths and he has more improvement to find than most of these.
All of this nonet will end up better than they've had the opportunity to display hitherto; but the balance of probabilities is that the Godolphin and Ballydoyle colts are the smartest. I will take my chance with the longer-priced of the pair, Battleground, who is bred to be very good and who is certain to be straight for this second day at school. 7/2 seems fair enough.
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3.35 Gold Cup (Group 1, 2m4f, 4yo+)
The Gold Cup has been the province of multiple winners, most recently and perhaps most famously being Yeats' four-timer between 2006 and 2009. With owner Bjorn Neilsen in no rush to make a National Hunt stallion of his pride and joy, Stradivarius returns for a third tilt at the most prestigious staying race in the flat calendar.
Now six, the son of Sea The Stars saw his ten-race winning streak ended by Kew Gardens in the mud here last October, going down by a nose in an epic tussle. He was also beaten on his first start of 2020, though that was far less of a surprise as he took on a legit twelve furlong Group 1 horse over that one's trip. As a trial for this main event, it was better than good. With the ground not likely to be a concern and the opposition a notch below last season most likely, the hat-trick bid is a probable not a possible.
Who, if any of them, might give Stradivarius a race? The key player could be Cross Counter, the finisher in last year's renewal. He got to inside two lengths of Frankie that day, staying on; and if he can get less revved up beforehand this time, might give the champ something to think about. But he failed to get past Stradivarius twice last term and there's no real reason why form should be reversed now.
Technician, in the same ownership as Chesham runner Bright Devil, was a good staying three-year-old last term now stepping up into Cup company. His best form is on soft ground, but the son of Mastercraftsman has a bit to prove stamina-wise for me.
It's 12/1 bar that trio with Nayef Road perhaps making most (but still limited) appeal of the remainder. He was close to the pace at Newcastle when running away in the last quarter mile to record a two-mile Group 3 score; but this is a challenge of an altogether different kind.
For Hail Mary players, the outsider of the field, Mekong, may run better than a 66/1 shot. He was a six length fourth in the Champions Long Distance Cup in which Stradivarius was beaten last October, having completely missed the break. Since then he's picked up over £400,000 in prize money without winning, almost all of it for a second placed effort in Saudi Arabia in February. He is a habitual slow starter but if he can concede less ground at the stalls, he may hit the frame at a whopping price.
Ultimately, this looks STRADIVARIUS' race to lose, and I don't think he will. I hope he wins, and I hope Mekong might offer some sort of a run at massive prices for tiny stakes in a race that looks all about the favourite.
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4.10 Britannia Stakes (Class 2 Handicap, 1m, 3yo)
Two impossible straight mile three-year-old handicaps to close, this one being as difficult a race as you'll find at the meeting. Winners have come from across the track, from all sorts of price points and from a plethora of different trainers; so there's not much to cling to from the historical.
There are three tenuous angles which I'm going to deploy for shortlisting purposes, taken from Andy Newton's big race trends here, fully cognisant that the winner has likely been discarded. Those dodgy differentiators are:
- A previous winner at seven furlongs or a mile
- Did NOT win last time out
- Did place last time out (I've used top four)
That gives me six horses: Verboten, Cherokee Trail, Shared Belief, He's A Keeper, Grove Ferry, and Enemy
Enemy is favourite in some lists after just two career runs, a debut first and a subsequent second. Trained by John Gosden - whose debut winners are well worth following, as Jon Shenton highlighted here - Enemy found only Mister Snowdon too good in a Yarmouth novice 15 days ago. That one bids for Jersey Stakes glory earlier on the card so will offer a nod to the value of the form ahead of the Britannia.
Gosden has three further runners in the field, of which Verboten is both better fancied than Eshaasy and on the shortlist; Cherokee Trail also makes the shortlist. Verboten, a Godolphin runner, went from a Yarmouth novice to the Group 1 Vertem Futurity last year such, presumably, was the way he was working at home. He was only 8/1 in that G1 but ran down the field behind 2000 Guineas winner, Kameko. On his first run this campaign, he stayed on into a close fourth over seven furlongs at Lingfield (all weather, turning track). This is a stiffer stamina test for a pedigree that offers mixed messages - speed from No Nay Never, resolution from a High Chapparal mare. Frankie Dettori rides, Oisin Murphy getting first dibs on Enemy who is in the Qatar Racing ownership.
It is testament to the pulling power and the political ability of John Gosden that he can train horses for all of Qatar Racing, Godolphin, Sheikh Hamdan and Coolmore, and run them all in the same race! Cherokee Trail represents the last named firm, with Ryan Moore doing the steering. More experienced than his stablemates, this son of War Front (Galileo is nearly always in the dam's blood, if he is not the sire) drops back to handicap grade after three spins in pattern class. He'll obviously find it easier, has proven stamina and the best connections; but he might just be marooned a little in stall two, with the pace possibly coming down the middle. At least he should get a clear passage from there.
Gosden is a three-time Britannia Stakes winner, albeit from 34 runners, so he certainly knows what is required.
Shared Belief would be the first winner not to have run in the same calendar year since, I think, at least 1997, but of course there are mitigating circumstances in this truncated pandemic-affected season. A handicap debutant for Archie Watson - whose two-year record with such horses is 24% from 108 starters, whose layoff stats are 23% from 105 starters and whose 14-day form at time of writing is 30% from 33 starters - he won't be lacking for preparation!
Since a seven furlong soft ground maiden win this time last year, Shared Belief has been highly tried in a trio of pattern races, most recently running behind Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes winner, Pyledriver. He has a middle draw, a 'get on with it' run style and is a 40/1 shot.
He's A Keeper is the same price, and in truth I find it harder to make his case. Beaten five lengths and more in his last three starts, he has at least had a spin this season, but I'm not sure he'll stay a mile in what ought to be a truly run affair.
More credible, perhaps, is Grove Ferry. Progressive last term, winning twice in novice company before finishing one place ahead of Verboten in their respective 2020 pipe openers. Team Balding was flying at that time, though so too was Team Gosden, and this son of Excelebration has a high draw and a waited-with style of racing. He is ridden by David Probert, in the geegeez 'lucky pants', so fingers crossed.
As ever, there are bundles more with fine prospects that I've failed to mention.
For a fillies' version of the Britannia, this is typically a top of the market affair. Or was until recently. Three years ago, Con Te Partiro won at 20/1 for Wesley Ward, and was tipped in this preview. (I know, it was probably the last winner I flagged, hoo hoo hoo). And last year, 33/1 Thanks Be - not tipped here, or many other places for that matter - got the whole enchilada for Hayley Turner and Charlie Fellowes in that controversial finish. Second was a 7/1 chance who really should have been awarded the race. 19 of the preceding 20 winners had returned 12/1 or shorter, as did the 2018 victor.
It is not typically a race in which to be too cute.
What could be less cute than a 7/4 favourite in a field of 18? Step forward, African Dream. Johnny G's thrice-raced filly was a close second to Stylistique just a week ago, that one bringing genuine Group 2 form to the table. A mark of 80, when her nose vanquisher is rated 106, underscores the 'well in' factor, and she is ideally berthed in 14 with a patient run style and pace around her. If the race doesn't come too soon, she'll probably win.
Because Kieran O'Neill keeps the ride on the favourite (good job, well played connections), Frankie must 'settle' for Dubai Love, a 101-rated Nottingham maiden winner. She was beaten on her sole subsequent start, when trying to make all over a mile at Kempton, and she wouldn't be obviously well treated, particularly not in comparison with her barn mate.
Sir Michael Stoute saddles the twice-raced Soffika. A daughter of Zoffany out of a Sakhee mare, she's bred for middle distances for all that she's yet to win beyond three-quarters of a mile. However, that doesn't really tell her tale: she was a keeping on second in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes over seven at Newmarket last summer and can be expected to progress as most of her trainer's projects do.
At bigger prices, the Richard Spencer-trained Odyssey Girl has been super consistent, running in the frame in her last five races. She is more experienced than her rivals and has performed well in big field sales races. She might outrun her 25/1 odds.
And perhaps Al Rasmah is better than she was able to show in a tactical race last time. She finished best of the seven at Haydock (one mile) and will be delivered late by Andrea Atzeni here.
There are some nice fillies in this field but it is rare that we see a horse so potentially well treated as AFRICAN DREAM. A literal interpretation of her run a week ago makes her almost two stone ahead of the handicapper!
The second of five days of this alternative Royal Ascot experience sees another septet of top class tussles up for grabs. The feature of the day is undoubtedly the Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes, where Japan takes on Headman, Barney Roy, Addeybb and more. We are also treated to the first juvenile race of the week, the 20-runner Windsor Castle Stakes; but matters commence with this year's customary huge field handicap, this time it is the...
1.15 Silver Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (1m, Class 2, 3yo+)
The Royal Hunt Cup is so impossible that they decided to duplicate it with this consolation version. Two dozen 90-odd rated handicappers hurtling up the full Ascot straight is a sight to behold, but it's a devilish wagering ask. Thank heavens for extra places with at least five up for grabs with most firms and six with a few.
The aim of the game is probably to find a hold up horse that loves a big field straight mile. That would bring in Sir Busker, Home Before Dusk, Red Bond, Ouzo, and Maydanny, all of whom have good straight mile-winning form, many of whom have done it in big fields.
Sir Busker, as top weight, was the last to miss the main cut. He's trained by William Knight, who is enjoying a great time of it since moving to Newmarket; and was a winner 15 days ago at Newcastle over a similarly straight mile, albeit on the synthetic surface. A winner of four, and placed in four more, of his 15 starts, he knows how to get the job done. With a middle to high draw and a hold up run style, Oisin Murphy will try to swoop late.
Keith Dalgleish saddles not one, not two, but three runners, with two of them being ridden by geegeez-sponsored jockeys. Of course, the best profile fit is the third string to Dalgleish's bow, Home Before Dusk, who has made a habit of finishing best at Gosforth Park, progressing from a mark of 58 this time last year to his current perch of 96.
Callum Rodriguez has been on board for the most recent three of six wins but jumps across to Red Bond this time for the Middleham Park Racing mob. He, too, is progressive, stepping forward from 75 to 92 in the space of four runs. He's likely to be close to the speed and that makes him susceptible to the massed ranks of later runners.
Rounding out the Dalgleish triumvirate is the David Probert-ridden Universal Gleam. Stall one should ensure he gets a run, assuming they come down the middle, and he'll be delivered late. He is another straight track mile winner and I'll be cheering him without necessarily wagering him, a truism whenever one of the geegeez riders is steering.
Back to the shortlist, and the remaining pair on that sheet are the top two in the market, Ouzo and Maydanny. Ouzo has good form on the Newmarket straight and ran a taking trial for this ten days back, getting collared late on. Ryan Moore retains what is an eye-catching partnership.
Well supported in recent days is Maydanny, about whom the the fancy prices are now gone. It is not hard to see why: this 1.35 million guinea yearling is a son of Dubawi out of the brilliant filly, Attraction, herself a winner of five Group 1's. With just three starts to his name, the four-year-old has clearly had his challenges but he laughed at a field of solid if unspectacular Class 4 handicappers a fortnight ago, coming away for a facile four length score. There's a really good chance he's a fair bit better than his current mark of 90.
Clearly a very trappy race and I'll be trying to get one into the first three, the bizarre requirement this week for placepot purposes even in 24-runner handicaps like this. Maydannymight just about still be backable at around 7/1 and I'll also take 12/1 Sir Busker to be in my corner.
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1.50 Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3, 1m2f, 3yo)
A ten furlong heat for those staying on in the 2000 Guineas but probably not good enough for the Derby and those rising up through the ranks. Its roll of honour is good but not great with every likelihood of that being the prevailing perception post-race.
Favourite is Her Majesty's First Receiver. For the first time, as I understand it, in 67 years, The Queen will not be at Royal Ascot though she will doubtless be cheering this easy last day victor up the straight as though she was in her customary vantage high in the stands. That Kempton romp is hard to contextualise but First Receiver's trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has won this race three times since 2009 so that's a clue. Mind you, Stoutey (if I might be so bold) has run 22 horses in this down the years which somewhat dilutes the still considerable merit of his achievement.
I was more taken with the effort of Juan Elcano last time when that one was a four length fifth in the 2000 Guineas. This represents a notable step back in grade which, allied to the extra quarter mile in trip, ought to see him go close if the exertions of a Classic run just 11 days ago have not left their mark.
Aidan O'Brien runs two, the better fancied of the pair being Derrinstown Derby Trial second Russian Emperor, a rare runner from the yard in non-Coolmore colours. In fact, as with all of the Ballydoyle horses it is a partnership, this time with Laurie Macri. Getting back to the horse, he was given plenty to do in a tactical race at Leopardstown that last day, finishing best but failing by a half length to reel in stablemate, Cormorant. You might say that the bird had flown. (sigh)
Eight days later and here he is in what may become another tactical affair, though Ryan Moore will have a match fit partner where Seamie perhaps was minded to tighten the bolts a little. That's all doublespeak for he'll be on his A game here and there will be no excuses.
Berlin Tango scored in Listed company under David Probert at Kempton last time, a beneficiary of trainer Andrew Balding's white hot form at the resumption. He's a progressive colt and showed a ready turn of foot about a quarter mile out which won him the race. He still has to show that his turf form is up to that level, however, and Oisin Murphy takes over from David.
Some way behind Juan Elcano at Newmarket was Kenzai Warrior, who completely fluffed the start. Whilst he is likely better than the bare form, I'm not sure the step up in trip is what he needs, or indeed whether he's good enough anyway. [We all know what happens now...]
Ralph Beckett's Zoffany colt, Mascat, looked to be crying out for the extra range after only just inhaling the leaders in a mile maiden at HQ last time. This is a leap and bound forward in class terms but he has reasonable credentials on both pedigree and form - he was second to the much-vaunted Palace Pier on his only other career start.
This is one of those races where I haven't really got a clue and, in that absence of idea, I tend to swing wildly for penny change. 20/1 Mascatis the horse to fit my requirements though he clearly has to improve some to get to the established level of some of these, and then a bit more to out-improve those other improvers, if you see what I mean. 7/2 Russian Emperor and 11/4 Juan Elcano are much more obvious, though commensurately shorter-priced, alternatives. But, it bears repeating, I have less of a clue than normal here.
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2.25 King George V Stakes (Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f, 3yo)
The curious case of the mile and a half draw bias against low-drawn horses. It really does defy convention, except that perhaps those drawn low are either too far forward if they're quick at the gate, or stuck in a pocket if they're tardily away. Either way, the data bear out this counter-intuitive snippet which is a key to hoping to unravel a conundrum such as the King George V Stakes.
Here's a picture which shows the three-stall rolling average of percentage of rivals beaten (or PRB3 for short). 50% is the mid-point - where runners from a stall have beaten as many others as have beaten them - so north of 55% is a good figure and south of 45% is the converse.
The blue line is the filtered data - in this case good/firm to good going, 16+ runners, actual draw (accounting for non-runners) - which shows the poor record of inside boxes. As can be seen from the pink line, that disadvantage is regardless of going. We're dealing with small samples here so the usual caveat emptor applies, and one should note that horses from stalls three and six have won a race each; but those two scores are from 119 to exit logical (i.e. removing non-runners) traps seven or lower.
After all that, I'm sorry to report that the shortest-priced low drawn horse is 10/1 Kings Caper in stall five.
What else do we have to conjure with? Trainer Mark Johnston has saddled five winners but from 58 runners (-£8.50 at SP), Aidan O'Brien saddled his first winner last term from 14 starters to date, and Sir Michael Stoute is the king of the King George V with four winners and another seven placed from 28 starters.
Sir Michael, of course, is empty-handed this term, as is Aidan; but 'Always Trying' runs a quartet, three of which are drawn 1, 2 and 5. History says that may make life difficult; his fourth strand is Subjectivist from stall 15 and with Ryan Moore booked to ride. He drops from minor pattern company into a handicap for the first time, his open race form mixing it with the likes of Juan Elcano, Mohican Heights and Pyledriver, all of whom take on loftier pots this week. 25/1 may understate his prospects.
The favourite is Kipps, trained by Hughie Morrison and ridden by David Probert. This lightly-raced War Command colt is well thought of and was narrowly denied close home on his seasonal debut ten days ago. Ideally berthed in stall twelve he has an obvious chance for a trainer with a quietly impressive Royal Ascot record (7/76, 14 further places, +£17 at SP, which improves to 6/49, 15 further places, +£23 in handicaps only). Morrison has had two from five placed in this race and I obviously hope Kipps wins. But I can't back him at 4/1.
The Yarmouth race in which Bodyline was a strong-finishing second looks certain to work out well and Sir Mark Prescott's Australia colt ought to improve for the extra distance. Stall 17 is almost too wide, however, and tempers enthusiasm a touch.
John Gosden has had just one winner, from 18 runners (three more placed), in the King George V Stakes, but To Nathaniel has fair prospects of doubling his victory tally. No prizes for guessing his dad's name with stamina also imbued from the dam line, Sea The Stars being his maternal grandfather. To Nathaniel is unbeaten in two seven-runner lower-grade handicaps since stepping up to this sort of trip and since being fitted with cheek pieces. He can progress again.
Arthurian Fable is somehow still a maiden after just failing to get up on his fourth and most recent start. That was at ten furlongs, this is twelve, and the Brian Meehan yard are enjoying a good little spell. Jockey Martin Dwyer will, like all the car park lads (and the lass Hollie Doyle), need to negotiate a ground-saving passage; if he can, his mount could break his duck on the big stage.
There are lots more with chances, a universal truth in Royal Ascot handicaps.
Jeez, it's trappy. Better to be lucky than good, as they say, so I'm rolling the dice with 25/1 Subjectivistand 14/1 Arthurian Fable, for sticky bun stakes.
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3.00 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1, 1m2f, 4yo+)
The highlight of the day is the Group 1 mile and a quarter Prince of Wales's Stakes for older horses. Locking horns in a field where quality usurps quantity are the recent winners of Group or Grade 1's in Britain, France, Dubai and Australia.
Market leader at coin toss odds is Japan, third in the Derby, fourth in the Arc and a three-time winner in between, including the Prix du Jockey Club (1m4f) and the Juddmonte International at York over this trip. His form is the best in the race and he's likely to have strengthened up from three to four; but connections might just have an autumn campaign on their minds. I also wouldn't be completely sold on a waiting ride in what may be a tactical race, not at even money or so at any rate.
Second favourite is the Roger Charlton-trainer Headman, who won the always top-class London Gold Cup handicap before a brace of Group 2's in France, and finished off with a solid fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes. I'm just not at all sold on the French pattern form from last year with pretty much all of their black type races having been won by overseas raiders.
Barney Roy seems to have been around forever - indeed he won the St James's Palace Stakes in 2017 at this meeting, having run up to Churchill in the 2000 Guineas previously. More recently his best form has been in Dubai but, as a nine-furlong horse stretching out, he might have the tactical toe to outspeed rivals if it is a steadily run contest.
Officially rated the same as Japan - both on 122 - is Addeybb. He enjoyed a purple patch down under in the spring winning a pair of G1's; in beating the same horse twice, however, there may be reservations about the form. It is probably a lot fairer to say I am incapable of quantifying the Australian form. Historically, their best middle-distance horses have not been as good as ours. All that said, Addeybb was second to Magical in the Group 1 Champion Stakes on soft ground before leaving for Oz so he has rock solid course and distance form and any rain will support his cause.
John Gosden runs both the filly Mehdaayih and the progressive Cambridgeshire winner, Lord North. The former was sent off favourite for the Oaks last year: things didn't work out on that tricky track and she showed better form in a Group 2 in France subsequently. Despite getting closest to Japanese raider, Deirdre, in the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last summer, and even with her gender allowance, she doesn't especially appeal on here second spin against the men here.
Lord North has moved forward a stone, from a mark of 98 to 112. That gives him ten pounds to find with the best of these and he was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Elarqam last time. It would be a surprise and, from a form perspective a disappointment, if Bangkok was good enough.
The Prince Of Wales's Stakes is a difficult race to weigh up this year. On the face of it, Japan should win: ten furlongs looks optimal for an improving multiple Group 1-winning colt. But perhaps not a steadily run ten furlongs; and perhaps not on his seasonal bow. At the prices - always at the prices - I'm going to take him on with Addeybb. He too is a risky proposition: is he over his travel exertions? Is that form actually good enough? But he does like a bit of cut and his run behind Magical in the Champion Stakes last autumn is high class and over track/trip. At 10/1 in a place, that'll do for me.
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3.35 Royal Hunt Cup (Class 2 Handicap, 1m, 3yo+)
An impossible cavalry charge down the straight mile. As always in such races, I'm looking for a hold up or midfield horse with big field form, ideally here. My shortlist is Kynren, Raising Sand, Indeed, What's The Story, and last year's winner, Afaak.
Kynren is a season ticket holder in these kind of events, finally snaffling an overdue win in a heritage handicap at the track over seven furlongs last autumn. Therein may lie the key, though: he is probably slightly better at seven than a mile for all that a form string of 052516 in huge field Ascot handicaps marks him down as an extra place each way wager.
Raising Sand has a similar profile to Kynren. He, too, has been uber-consistent in the context: 143078164310 is his string, which at a mile goes to 1763 and a mile on soft side of good 163. The '3' was in this race last year but another five pounds hardly makes his task easier. I respect this chap but will let him beat me.
Dominic Ffrench-Davis doesn't have many superstars but he is clearly eminently capable of handling a good one when it comes along. Enter Indeed, second in a soft ground nine-furlong straight track Group 3 last season, ideal credentials for finishing off this furlong shorter mission. He's gone very well fresh in the past and, while his handicap mark is no 'gimme', he's feasibly weighted from a mid-track position.
What's The Story will be ridden by Callum Rodriguez, so naturally I'll be hollering for him out of loyalty. But his form profile stacks up, too. Although there are mixed messages about softish ground, he has handled a variety of underfoot conditions and stays as far as ten furlongs as well as being nippy enough for seven. In other words, he's versatile. Whether he is quite enough of a specialist for this gig, I'm not sure.
Afaak, or something very similar, is what I was screaming twelve months ago as Jim Crowley repelled Jamie Spencer's late Clon Coulis charge. That was on soft ground and, remarkably, Afaak had been second in this same race a year prior to that. 2nd of 30 (rated 103) and 1st of 28 (rated 103) screams contender, especially off a mere three pound higher mark mitigated entirely by Cieren Fallon's three pound claim. There can be little doubt this has been the target.
There are any number of less exposed, more fashionable profiles at the top of the market but this is a race that tends to go the way of a battle-hardened handicapper with a touch of class. With that in mind, Indeedand Afaakare my each way two against the field, both at around 16/1. Try for fifteen places!
The first two-year-old race of the week, and as many as twenty of them go to post.
US trainer Wesley Ward is two from twelve in this race, most recently with Hootenanny in 2014. He's had a couple of shorties down the field since, and the soft ground is probably not optimal for Sunshine City. Although only midfield from the gate on her four-and-a-half furlong turning dirt track debut, she can be expected to bounce alertly here; but it won't be lost on many what a different proposition this will be. Of course, Wes has done it before and he might do it again. The price means I'll look elsewhere. Ward also runs Sheriff Bianco, beaten three lengths on debut and not on my wishlist.
Aidan O'Brien is the other obvious trainer in the race having saddled last year's victor, Southern Hills, and 2015 champ, Washington DC. He's also had a second, a third and four fourths from 16 entries. Chief Little Hawk, an impressive winner just a week ago, travelled well that day and quickened up readily. The ground will be a little softer here but he's feared.
The upstart in this juvenile sprint division is Archie Watson. He got the lot two years ago with Soldier's Call and has another live one in Mighty Gurkha. The cheaply bought Sepoy colt bossed things from the stalls on his sole jaunt thus far, a six-furlong Lingfield all weather spin. Soldier's Call also began on the Lingfield AW but he didn't scoot up by eight long lengths! Who knows what was behind Mighty Gurkha that day - the second has been disappointing since - but Watson's entry has both speed and relative stamina.
The Queen's Tactical, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by James Doyle, has been backed recently in the manner of a horse that has come out of his debut well. That effort, 13 days ago, was a two-length third in a Newmarket maiden (Get It a length and a quarter ahead in second) where Tactical encountered a small amount of trouble in the run. Balding's horses invariably improve from first to second start - he wins second time out at 20%, first time out at 11%. He might be able to reverse the form with Get It, whose trainer Clive Cox scores at roughly 10% with horses on both their first and second starts.
At bigger prices, James Tate's Victory Heights and George Boughey's Astimegoesby are not without a chance, a comment which doubtless applies to several others unmentioned in these despatches.
Wagering the Windsor Castle is not for the faint-hearted, like most of what has preceded it, and Chief Little Hawk is an unimaginative though pretty solid suggestion. Mighty Gurkha could also go well at a bigger price.
A one off this year is the mile and three quarters Copper Horse Handicap, for older horses. With very few handicaps run over this trip at Ascot, and none with sort of field size, it is difficult to know what will be the impact of draw and pace. The likelihood, however, is that it might follow the pattern of big-field mile and a half handicaps, with a middle to wide draw and a good trip being optimal. Below is the Instant Expert view of the world:
As can be seen in the above, which is displaying place data, Alright Sunshine, Shailene, Fujaira Prince and Here And Now all have green for those components against which they've previously raced.
Alright Sunshine drops down in class from a Group 3 last time, his first run of the year, and if that has blown away the cobwebs he'll bring progressive handicap form, including on softish ground, to the party. A four pound rise for that recent outing doesn't especially help, however; nor does an inside draw for a hold up type: he will need plenty of luck in the run.
Shailene has trap one but at least has Silvestre de Sousa to navigate her. They may go straight for the lead - the alternative is almost certainly a boxed-in transit and frustration; either way, it will be hard to get the run of the race with so many rivals ostensibly setting up better. On form, her third in a similar handicap at Goodwood last summer when held up and never quite getting there gives her a squeak.
The favourite is Fujaira Prince. Trained by Roger Varian, the son of Pivotal has stamina on the dam side being out of a Dalakhani mare. That offers hope on this first foray beyond a mile and a half, having stayed on in such contests the last twice, including most recently in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at this meeting a year ago. His trainer has an excellent record with horses off a layoff - better than 21%, 50% hitting the frame - and Fujaira Prince has a wide draw to give jockey Andrea Atzeni options.
Here And Now is a massive price, largely because he hasn't run for two years. But I imagine he's well drawn in twelve and has a great profile fit on his old form. Those 2018 efforts include a five length score in a 16-runner two mile Class 2 York handicap. Harry Bentley is one of trainer Ralph Beckett's go-to 'handicap job jockeys' - according to one of my QT Angles anyway - so, while the layoff is clearly a huge question mark, he's worth a small chance at 33/1 or so. Beckett's record with handicappers off a 200+ day rest is 15%, though it is less impressive off an ultra-break like this.
Collide, Ranch Hand and Beckett's other entry and third reserve, Hereby, all have progressive profiles and winning form at this specific distance; as such all have clear chances.
A very trappy close to a fiendish day. Again, Fujaira Prince looks solid at the head of the betting; while I won't be able to resist a tiny tickle on Here And Now. But tiny is what it will be: there will be more feasibly winnable battles in the coming days.
Barely a fortnight after the start of the flat turf season, and Royal Ascot 2020 is upon us. Like everything else on the planet currently, this year's Royal meeting is trying to mend and make do in the face of enormous challenges. No crowds and no Royals are the most obvious absences; in their place are six additional races, one each Tuesday to Friday and two on Saturday's eight-race extravaganza.
The running order has also been rejigged, mainly to allow a little extra time for the juveniles between a debut and their big Berkshire date. We begin with an old friend, the Buckingham Palace Handicap, which was stood down in 2015 to make way for the (excellent) Commonwealth Cup; and also with a 75-minute earlier start time. Tune in at 2.30 and you'll be five minutes too late for the quadpot, let alone the placepot!
The going is good to soft. The forecast is warm with the possibility of thunder storms all week. In other words, it could dry out and it could get wetter - great!
1.15 Buckingham Palace Handicap (7f, Class 2, 3yo+)
A three-year-old-plus handicap with none of the Classic generation in attendance. Good news for form players as there are likely to be a few more lines in the book and a little less projection required.
In big fields over seven furlongs at Ascot, it pays to be waited with, but perhaps not in too exaggerated a fashion. Mid-div may be ideal. Middle to high may be best off from a draw perspective, but it's marginal and not worth lobbing an otherwise credible candidate for.
Big field seven furlong form, ideally here, is my route in and that offers the following shortlist:
Greenside, Kaeso, Cliffs Of Capri, Firmament
Greenside was second in a valuable course and distance handicap on his most recent start in early October last year. The drop back to a truly-run straight seven furlongs for the first time in a 17-race turf career looked to be a positive, and this strong-travelling type was more than three lengths too good for all bar the winner that day. Up five pounds doesn't make life easy, though he has a very good record fresh. Jockey Marco Ghiani, who rode him for the first time in that most recent run, keeps the mount; it will be only his second ride since the resumption (apprentices having not been eligible until 15th June).
Nigel Tinkler is a very shrewd trainer of handicappers and his Kaeso is as consistent as can be in this type of race. 3rd of 26 and 2nd of 23 in the Victoria Cup and International Handicap, both over course and distance, last season speak volumes for Kaeso's ability to handle the profile; and a cobweb-clearing canter down Newcastle's straight seven ten days ago should have brought him forward. Drawn in the middle, he'll be covered up in midfield most likely, and the booking of Oisin Murphy knocks the eye out.
Another profile type is Cliffs Of Capri, Jamie Osborne's globetrotter coming here off the back of a valuable handicap score in Dubai. Since then he ran second at Newmarket 12 days ago to prove his recovery from the travel. He's three pounds higher than when fifth of 20 in the Cunard Handicap in 2018 and would be far from a shock winner.
Firmament has been around a long while now. At least it seems that way; in fact, aged eight, he's a year younger than Greenside. A record of 0-from-14 at the track betrays some excellent efforts, including half a dozen top six efforts in 17+ runner handicaps. His consistency draws little favour from the handicapper, though, so while the booking of James Doyle again takes the eye, the balance of probabilities is that a place is a more playable proposition.
The market is headed by the lightly-raced and progressive Daarik, trained by John Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori. He is one of the most obvious handicap bets of the week and, as a direct consequence, will offer zero value (for all that he clearly has solid prospects). If you want a reason to oppose him, it is this: in five career starts, he's raced on turf only once - on debut when a 14 1/2 length last of ten. Of course there are counter-arguments - greenness, etc - but I don't typically want to bet a 4/1 chance in a 24-runner cavalry charge, thanks.
If I'm going to back a progressive blue blood, it'll be Roger Varian's gelded son of Dubawi, Mutamaasik. A winner of his last four starts, he's up just three pounds for a recent narrow verdict in a tactical affair. Drawn in the middle of the pack and probably in the middle of the pace will give Dane O'Neill options.
Clearly a wide open event to kick us off, keep in mind the advice about each way betting and extra places here. 8/1 Kaesoand 16/1 Greensideare the pair for me, each way, with all the extra places you can get.
*
1.50 Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1, 1m, 4yo+)
The traditional curtain-raiser has its own warm up act this year, but still comes on stage 40 minutes earlier than usual. A sequence of 13 winners at odds of 15/2 or shorter came unceremoniously unstuck in 2018 when Accidental Agent recorded a 33/1 score. Last year was tricky, too, as 14/1 Lord Glitters got the better of a brace of 20/1 shots with a 25/1 poke in fourth.
The winners and runners-up, and indeed the next pair home last year, all raced in rear early: that's the tactic in big field mile races on the straight track as a rule, and so a quick squint at the pace map may be instructive.
As can be seen, there are not many out and out hold up types, exceptions being the 2018 winner (who planted in the stalls in last year's race); last year's 7f Jersey Stakes winner, Space Traveller; Bless Him, and Escobar.
In the midfield are likely to be such as the unlucky-on-the-round-course-last-year Fox Chairman, Skardu, Duke Of Hazzard and Mohaather.
The favourite is Circus Maximus, a good horse if a bit of a high-class grinder. This stiff test will probably be up his street but he is 0-from-3 on a straight track and he's another favourite I'll be opposing. I'm also against the progressive filly, Terebellum, a winner at Newmarket ten days ago but who is stepping back a quarter mile here. As well as the trip switch, she faces the boys and is up in class; all told, she's a poor price.
Fox Chairman was a big eye-catcher in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last season when getting no run before finishing best to be a respectful second, two big lengths behind Sangarius. He duly converted a penalty kick at Newbury next time out, in Listed company, but hasn't been sighted in the eleven months since. Trainer Andrew Balding has been in cracking form at the start of the turf campaign, and they've reportedly minded the Chairman after a slight setback last term. Still, this straight mile is a very different test and again represents a class elevation.
Mustashry had a rough passage last season in this race, eventually finishing seventh beaten less than four lengths. Jim Crowley jumps ship this time, instead opting for Mohaather, which can hardly be viewed as a positive for all that jockeys habitually choose wrong. Mustashry is a legit G1 horse, having beaten Laurens in the Lockinge last term, and with Dane O'Neill a more than able deputy, he looks a very fair price at around 12/1.
There is a good chance Mohaather has strengthened up since his three-year-old year in 2019, and a sole defeat on heavy ground - in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over course and distance no less - is eminently forgivable. Trainer Marcus Tregoning has started in very good form, albeit from just a handful of runners, so the team will be excited about this lad.
William Haggas runs Skardu, another four-year-old in the line up. He wasn't beaten far in a trio of Group 1 events last season, all at a mile on similar ground. His straight track mile form includes third in the 2000 Guineas and fourth in the Irish equivalent, when perhaps a little fatigued from the previous engagement. Jockey James 'the Doyler' Doyle will have him wrapped up until the quarter pole most likely and I can see this one running a big race.
It's a wide open race once more this year and not one in which to be going 'all in'. For small money, each of 12/1 Mustashry, 14/1 Mohaatherand 14/1 Skarduhave claims. I'll be dutching the three of them. Hills are going FIVE places in the race and are the place to bet if your fancy is top price there and you want to play each way.
The Ascot Oaks, as this race is generally not affectionately known, comes before the actual Oaks in this topsy-turvy season. Indeed, such is the timing of events that it is very likely the pre-eminent trial for the Epsom fillies' Classic, with the possible exception of the 1000 Guineas.
Plenty have had a run already in these formative days of the turf season, including the favourite, Frankly Darling. The daughter of, you guessed it, Frankel, bolted up on the opening day back: that was on the tapeta at Newcastle, and over a mile and a quarter, but trainer John Gosden has been happy to send some of his best to break their maiden there, including Enable and Stradivarius.
This filly has a long way to go to reach that level, but she might very well dismiss her rivals here in the manner of an Oaks winner-in-waiting. If you fancy her here, the play might be to back her ante post for the Oaks at 12/1. That appeals to me more than taking 7/4 in this at any rate: if she does score nicely here, she'll be second favourite for Epsom.
Second choice is Trefoil, trained by dual Oaks-winning Ralph Beckett. She caught the eye when running on at Newmarket over a quarter mile shorter, but while the trip may suit better the opposition is undoubtedly warmer.
Miss Yoda is a drifter, in spite of winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial. It wasn't her fault the race was a slowly-run muddling affair and, given her track position through the race, the even money favourite that day can probably be marked up just a smidge. That's not to say I want to bet her here, but she is a credible second string to Gosden's bow.
Gosden has a third string, too, in the form of Anastarsia, who was all at sea behind Miss Yoda (and Golden Lips and West End Girl and So I Told You, all of which re-oppose) on the Lingfield slopes. She probably won't reverse places with all of them but she certainly had the most excuses that day and might go better than a 40/1 chance.
The one I like, however, is Passion. Trained by Aidan O'Brien, she was given a 'welcome to 2020, onwards and upwards' introduction by Seamie Heffernan in the Listed Salsabil Stakes at Navan. She'll have needed that to be an easy pipe opener as it came just six days prior to this and, of course, she has to travel over. But she is bred for this job - by Galileo out of an Anabaa mare, a sister to St Leger / Irish Derby winner, Capri, amongst other stayers - and she will have Ryan Moore to assist.
This is a race that looks certain to shake up the Oaks betting. It could easily go to the favourite, Frankly Darling, and she is worthy of small pre-race support for Epsom; but the each way play is Passion, whose price is shortening but is still 7/1 with Victor and Paddy. She's 33/1 for the Oaks.
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3.00 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2, 1m4f, 3yo colts & geldings)
After the 'Ascot Oaks' comes the 'Ascot Derby', an ostensibly shallower contest this year, though undoubtedly one with Epsom on its mind: the odds-on favourite here, Mogul, is a single-figure price already for the Derby.
Beautifully bred, by Galileo out of a Danehill mare, he's a brother to Japan amongst other Group race winners and cost 3,400,000 guineas (count 'em!) as a yearling. He himself is already a Group 2 winner having achieved that level of performance in the Champions Juvenile Stakes on Irish Champions Weekend last autumn. Arguably a little flat on his final start of 2019, when only fourth in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity, relocated to Newcastle, that was his fourth race in the space of three and a half months.
Ballydoyle sends a second runner to post, Arthur's Kingdom, perhaps as a pacemaker, perhaps to test his own Derby credentials. A mere snip at €240,000 compared with his stable mate, the son of Camelot - do you see what they did there? - has yet to win in pattern company but was quietly impressive on heavy ground when breaking his maiden at the third time of asking.
It is always so hard to guess at the O'Brien pecking order: with myriad royally-bred lightly-raced colts at their disposal, the yard's insistence that even they don't know the hierarchy until early summer of the Classic campaign is totally plausible.
Sandwiched between the Ballydoylers in the King Edward VII Stakes betting is the David Simcock-trained Mohican Heights. Unbeaten in two last term, including a Listed race over a mile, the son of Australia - who changed hands for £520,000 at the boutique pre-Ascot Goffs London sale last year - makes his seasonal reappearance. Stamina shouldn't be an issue though he will be having his first run for nigh on 300 days and only the third of his life.
The pace may be put to the race by Silvestre de Sousa atop Kingpower's Papa Power. Unraced at two, he was winner of the final two of three novice events on the all-weather earlier this year, putting them to bed long before the finish each time. It will be interesting to see how that works out here: an uncontested lead, kicking at the top of the shortish home straight would make him tough to reel in. That name as well: I don't know for sure, but it just might be a nod to the much-loved Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, so tragically killed in that helicopter crash last year. If that's right, they must think a lot of this fellow.
Pyledriver and Sound Of Cannons are both more exposed, though both retain some appeal for another day, the latter - who ran a better than it looked race in the Lingfield Derby Trial - especially.
This could quite possibly be a tactical race. It also features an odds-on favourite. As such, it is less than compelling from a wagering stance. I'm fairly sure Mogul is the best horse in the race, but I'm not convinced the set up is optimal and, in the circumstances, it might be worth taking a chance on 9/1 Papa Power. Despite the hiatus, he's had more racing this term than his rivals and he could get to boss things from the front: no better man for that job than his pilot, SdS.
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3.35 King's Stand Stakes (Group 1, 5f, 3yo+)
One of the day one features, the King's Stand is the province of the speedballs. This term it looked set to be a match between the brilliant sprinter Battaash and the exciting upstart Sceptical. Disappointingly - especially as I held a 20/1 voucher for him in this contest - Sceptical waits until Saturday and the Golden Jubilee Stakes. I felt the stiff finish here, for a strong-travelling horse with a withering gear change, was optimal. He'll probably go and win the Saturday showcase now, and in truth I hope he does. Sigh.
Back to the here and now, and it is Battaash's to lose. On ratings he is ten pounds clear of the next best, and that horse - Glass Slippers - has been duffing up second-tier dashers in France.
A procession for Battaash then? Probably, though not definitely. Of course not definitely: it's a horse race after all!
Charles Hills' champion has had his Achilles heel exposed at Ascot in the past and has a record here of 022. But that pair of silvers was against another champion, Blue Point, for whom Ascot's stiff finish was optimal. With the stable in form, and no Blue Point or Sceptical, there are no excuses this time. He'll very likely win and 8/11 is not the worst value odds-on bet I've seen.
A race like this sets up perfectly for the 'without the favourite' players. Hills are the only one to price it up as I write, and they are 11/10 Glass Slippers, 4/1 bar. I'm happy to field against Glass Slippers for reasons flagged above - if I'm wrong, I'm wrong - so it's an attractive route into a race where we can simultaneously cheer a champ and collect on the 'underneath'.
The three-year-old Liberty Beach ticks plenty of boxes in receipt of weight-for-age. She obviously gets that for her relative lack of physical maturity, but she's rapid as she showed when winning the Listed Dragon Stakes and the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at this distance. She was also fourth (of 25) in the Queen Mary, and demonstrated her stamina credentials for this stiff finish when winning a Listed race over six furlongs on good to soft nine days ago. She'll not be too far off the speed.
The one at a price is Henry Candy's filly, Kurious. She has won her last two over five furlongs and has plenty of early speed. Not beaten far in the 2018 Queen Mary, she's been patiently handled since. 12/1 in the 'without' market makes some appeal.
Although he can get himself worked up beforehand, and although he's been susceptible in Ascot races to a spoiler in the past, I think BATTAASH will win. I hope he does because he's a bloody brilliant sprinter on his day. He's a sure fire 'on top' for exacta players and it might pay to select the two fillies Liberty Beach and Kurious underneath. They are sporting wagers in the 'without' market, too.
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4.10 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ Fillies & Mares)
Formerly the Windsor Forest Stakes, this is a mile on the straight course for older fillies and mares. A couple of the features of the race are the record of the French and the record of held up runners.
The French have run 17 femmes in the race since its 2004 inception, with a form string of 42301005982391531. So that's three winners (17.6%) and eight top three finishes (47%).
Moving along to run style, and hold up horses have won all of the last five renewals. Going further back, a combination of midfield and hold up horses have won every renewal since Strawberrydaiquiri made all in 2010.
There is one French filly in the field, Wasmya, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard and ridden by... Frankie Dettori. Generally played from midfield, she's 10/1 currently but will surely shorten. The daughter of Toronado, out of a Danehill Dancer mare, is bred for the trip though she's having her first try since debut at it; she is also tongue tied for the first time. That breathing aid would not need to eke out massive improvement for her to have a squeak.
You'll have to take my word for Wasmya's general run style as we sadly do not yet have the French form in our database. Nevertheless, you can view the projected pace map for the remainder of the field below.
The unbeaten Miss O Connor will need to be good to repel her field given the historical advantage to waited with types, but she ought to be largely uncontested on the lead at least. The winner looks most likely to emerge from the later-running cluster drawn two to seven, with both Frankie and Jim Crowley, aboard favoured Nazeef, well berthed to track that early speed.
Nazeef is herself unbeaten in her last four races, most recently when seeing off the high-class Billesdon Brook in a Listed race at Kempton 13 days ago. If that turning all-weather strip bears no resemblance to the straight lawn here, her previous six-length romp in a Class 3 mile handicap at Newmarket (good to firm) showed such a configuration will not preclude an extension of her victory sequence to a nap hand.
Sir Michael Stoute has a peerless record in the race, with four winners from 17 runners, and nine in the frame in total (a 53% place rate). He saddles Jubiloso, third in the round course three-year-old Group 1 Coronation Stakes at this meeting a year ago. While three of Sir Michael's winners had had a seasonal run, this year's truncated beginning has meant Jubiloso arrives off a 290 day absence. The inaugural Duke Of Cambridge winner, Favourable Terms, overcame a similarly long layoff for the same trainer and the yard has been in great form since the resumption.
Jubiloso was a little disappointing after Ascot last season, however: only third as the even money favourite in a Goodwood Group 3 and one from last of eight when odds-on in a similar event at Sandown. That would be enough to dissuade me at the current prices.
Lavender's Blue was the winner of the Sandown race, her form at a mile looking solid. Indeed, she followed up that G3 score with a very good three-length fourth in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. With just five career starts to her name, proven top level form over a straight mile, and a midfield run style, Amanda Perrett's four-year-old daughter of Sea The Stars - owned by Abba's Benny Andersson - could hit the right notes here. (Mamma mia!)
The other interesting filly is Queen Power, also trained by Sir Michael Stoute. She was staying on over ten furlongs last time and drops back in trip here, not an obvious play to my eye. A daughter of Shamardal, whose is an excellent Royal Ascot sire, she won't want James Doyle on Miss O Connor to amble along too steadily in front. In any event, the balance of her form is decent but typically in defeat.
If you're looking for a rag to outrun its price, Agincourt may offer a run for pennies. She won a Listed race on Newmarket's straight mile, and has a straight track record (seven furlongs and a mile) of 1221. Her trainer David O'Meara won this in 2015 for the same owner, Sir Robert Ogden. She's 40/1.
It's a competitive affair with lots of interesting runners. Nazeef looks a reasonable favourite, and I'd personally favour her over Jubiloso at the head of the betting - though the latter is clearly pleasing the pre-eminent race trainer at home. Price preference is for 6/1 Lavender's Blue and 10/1 Wasmya, the former whose form may be a little under-rated and who should be able to progress further this year, the latter who represents similar potential and a Gallic gear change. Agincourt at 40/1 is a Hail Mary of mild interest.
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4.40 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)
The lucky last on the opening day is the Ascot Stakes, a staying handicap. No winner has returned a bigger SP than 12/1 since 2008 and, in a race where we need all the whittling we can get, that's a reasonable starting point.
The draw has been an irrelevance since the maximum field size was reduced to 20, but what has been significant is the dominance of jumps or dual-purpose trainers - winners of the previous ten Ascot Stakes, all with horses aged five-plus and all bar one of which had already raced over hurdles.
Slightly more tenuously, all - bar two of Willie Mullins' four winners in the past decade, and Ian Williams' 2019 winner - had won over further over jumps.
Using the more robust of those criteria helps to form this tentative shortlist:
Verdana Blue, Blue Laureate, Coeur De Lion, Quloob, San Benedeto
Verdana Blue is the favourite, at around 7/2. She is a high class hurdler trained by Nicky Henderson, but Henderson's record in the race is 1 from 23, just four placed. Giving weight all round she's hardly a 'gimme'.
Blue Laureate represents last year's winning stable, super shrewd Ian Williams. This man is arguably the best 'target trainer' in Britain and everything he runs in a big race commands a second, and a third, glance. A five-year-old who has improved for longer trips, he was third in the 2m2f Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last backend, and a keeping on second in a two mile Class 2 handicap on seasonal bow eight days ago. If this doesn't come too soon, he might just improve again for an extra half mile. Crack apprentice Cieren Fallon gets the leg up.
There are few horses more consistent than the well-named Coeur De Lion. This lad gets carried out on his shield every time he runs, for all that the scars of recent battles have seemingly taken longer to heal. Sixth and fifth in this race in the last two years, he runs off the same mark as a year ago but may struggle to get much closer this time around.
Quloob runs for the Heart of the South syndicate, and is part-owned by a regular geegeez.co.uk syndicateer, Graham W, so I wish this chap the best of luck. His trainer, Gary Moore, is a top-class dual purpose exponent, and Quloob deserves his place after a string of consistent efforts. Moore, however, has yet to saddle a placed horse in the Ascot Stakes, from eight runners to date.
Paul Nicholls makes a rare foray to Royal Ascot with San Benedeto (and 33/1 Ashutor). San B is unraced on the level since his juvenile season in 2013! He is high class over fences, rated in the 150's, and will have no problem with the distance. If they go fast early, it should allow him to plod through beaten horses though whether he's capable of getting past all of them is a far bigger question. It's a leap of faith to back him after so many years away from this discipline.
Of those not fitting the profile, last year's second, Dubawi Fifty, gets in off the same mark; but there looks to be a lot more pace contention this time if connections elect to revert to the front-running strategy they deployed twelve months ago.
There are another fourteen with a squeak!
For small money, I'll chance my arm with Ian Williams' Blue Laureate. As well as the winner last year, his other runner was third, so it's fair to say he's worked out what is required. At a general 14/1, including six places (1/5 odds) with Paddy if you can get it, he'll do for me.
**
And that's Tuesday's card. There are four more days to follow, so keep some powder dry. Good luck!
A few hours from now (I’ve started even earlier than usual today) UK betting shops will be opening for the first time in three months, writes Tony Stafford. Those frustrated souls who do not have access to computer or telephone betting will therefore be back in the game. With the two-metre social distancing rule, sort of still in place, it will be interesting to see how it will be managed by designated employees.
Over time, many betting shops have become denuded of staff, often appearing at quiet times to be one-man or –woman affairs. So while Tesco, Sainsbury, Morrison, Lidl, Asda and the like can provide employees to monitor the outside queues, who can be spared by Hills, Coral, Ladbroke and the rest to ensure safety entering the betting emporia?
But, as we saw in various public demonstrations last week, the British red-blooded male (and sometimes female) is all-too-willing to ignore such niceties when the mood takes it. Let’s hope the much-sought-after “R” number was not too much inconvenienced by the various scrums in London town and elsewhere.
On my weekly analysis, Monday to Sunday, another 452 fewer deaths brought the latest tally to 1156, a fall of more than 32% on the week, more than maintaining the trend. So if the premature return to lemming-like crowd scenes did not damage the “R”, the return of the public to the racecourse in probably a limited degree, might not be too far off. Goodwood and York must be the two tracks most hoping for that prospect.
Many other shops are opening – even hairdressers! – from today, so anyone dressing up at home for Royal Ascot as I’ve promised myself to do tomorrow, can go for a quick tidy-up in preparation.
The overnights for the first two days are now set and the trainers who have made the most dynamic re-start, Messrs Gosden, Johnston, Hannon and Balding, all have double-figure representation. Six extra races have been added, bringing more opportunities for smaller stables, but the top teams still dominate with multiple chances in the handicaps especially.
From the first two weeks’ action, John Gosden, who will be expecting success from 11 overnight declarations on the first two days, and with Stradivarius in the Gold Cup to wait for on Thursday as he goes for a third Gold Cup, clocked up 29 wins from his 93 starters. Mark Johnston has 17 declared on the first two days, and he too has made a flying restart, with 20 winners from his 128 runners.
A Saturday four-timer, all in Michael Tabor colours and with Seamie Heffernan in the saddle, projected Aidan O’Brien on to the domestic 13 mark at home in the first week, plus Love in the 1,000 Guineas. The Saturday quartet was spearheaded by Peaceful’s emphatic triumph in the Irish 1,000, yet another Classic winner, along with Love, for Galileo. The suggestion – it must have come from somewhere, but I’m not sure where – that Peaceful might join the team and come over for Saturday’s Coronation Stakes is both mouth-watering and eminently possible, knowing the ambition of owners and trainer.
I’ll be hoping to be still wide awake around 1 p.m. today waiting for the five-day entries. If only we could go on Saturday. The eight races kick off with the Silver Wokingham, like Wednesday’s Silver Hunt Cup, a 24-runner innovation, with the Wokingham itself staged as the seventh race on the card.
Then it’s the Queen Mary, the Coronation, the Coventry and St James’s Palace, with the chance of 2,000 Guineas runners coming on from Newmarket and Ireland. It would be great to see Siskin, especially after his fine display in the Irish 2000 Guineas, his power finish seeing off the Ballydoyle hordes. It’s more likely, however, to expect a few of the supporting cast from Newmarket and The Curragh to get an entry. Then it’s the Diamond Jubilee, the Wokingham and ending fittingly with the Queen Alexandra as the 36th race of the week. I can’t wait.
Eight races and, as so many are saying, a great chance for racing to get a bigger profile than has been the case hitherto. ITV will make it accessible to all who want to watch it, but without the pomp, ceremony and fashion we’ve come to love. Maybe this emasculated, work-a-day version will leave us with as much regret as pleasure, but I think the BHA and racing’s trainers and owners, jockeys and stable staff, and racecourses, have all done a wonderful job in getting the show back on the road in the most challenging of circumstances.
The Queen has had plenty of interest from her horses on the track in the past fortnight. So far only First Receiver, a facile seven-length winner at Kempton in the opening week for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore, has been successful; and he looks to hold a great chance in Wednesday’s Hampton Court Stakes. I thought it also reflected well on the organisers that they were able to do the low-key televised Trooping the Colour ceremony from Windsor Castle on Saturday, on her official birthday. She was actually 94 on April 21st and the way the cameras picked up her still mobile, fully engaged and alert self was a great pick-me-up for everyone watching.
How irritating it must have been for her that the usual venue for the ceremony, Horseguards Parade, tucked in between the Cenotaph and Trafalgar Square in Central London, was being invaded by rent-a-mobs at the precise moment her first official engagement since lockdown was continuing with such dignity and efficiency 25 miles to the west.
If there is one constant irritation for me even in the general goodwill generated by the simple fact of there being some racing – and good stuff – to watch, it’s that “his stable has been in form” routine by various presenters. Form is governed by opportunity and the 200-plus stables by definition, just as the top riders, can have a string of fancied losers, but get another good chance in the next race after which the inevitable “in good form” line is trotted out.
What I think is worth noting, is to identify the up-and-coming operations. Archie Watson has already gone from upstart to top trainer usually with horses sent forward from the start. That rewarding pattern, almost A P McCoy-like, has been a constant factor, apart of course from natural talent, in the emergence of Hollie Doyle, already flying past the 50 mark for the year.
Now she’s getting the best out of all her mounts, for Archie and everyone else, and from the back of the field as well as the front. She, no doubt, will be one of the riders gaining the most attention, if not necessarily the most success, in the coming week.
Among the trainers, it’s been very good to see the emergence of Tom Clover. He had the good sense to learn his trade as assistant to the highly-accomplished David Simcock, and even more to marry Jackie, daughter of the late, great Michael Jarvis.
Last year the couple made the switch from Willie Musson’s Savile House just around the corner from Newmarket’s Clock Tower, a few strides up Fordham Road to Kremlin House, scene of Michael Jarvis’s greatest achievements. So the Tottenham fan married into an Arsenal household, but harmony is clearly the name of the game. And talent, too, as Tom has fired in six winners from only 16 runners in the two weeks since the restart and 11 from 42 overall this year.
That puts him within reach of last year’s tally of 19, following seven in each of the previous two years, his first two full campaigns as a trainer.
Another to have switched yards even more recently is William Knight, up to HQ after a longish stint in Sussex to take over Rathmoy Stable, formerly the base for the legendary Neville Callaghan and more recently David Lanigan, who is departing for the US.
Knight has also been quick off the mark, and in his case, the “trainer in form” comment is fully deserved. From 14 runs, he’s sent out three winners (13-2, 22-1 and 33-1) and three third places. Four of the eight also-rans have started at 50-1 and above, and talking of opportunity, the average price of ALL his runners has been 33-1. Gosden’s 93 have averaged 4-1. Now that’s making the most of one’s opportunities and Knight I’m sure will continue to be a man to follow, as will Clover.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TomClover.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-06-15 07:36:222020-06-15 07:36:22Monday Musings: Trainers with Form
1.15 Newbury : Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Awkwardly and lost ground start, held up in last pair, headway on far rail over 2f out, ridden and hung left 2f out, weakened final furlong)
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
In my haste this morning to get out to my aunt's funeral, I inadvertently quoted Mark Johnston's Goodwood stats! So, much later than planned/usual (approaching 12.30pm!), here are the correct details for today...
Mark Johnston + Pontefract + Classes 2-5 + 1m2f and beyond + 9/1 max SP + 2016-20 = 16 from 55 (29.1% SR) for 10.03pts (+18.2% ROI), from which...
10/27 (37%) for 10.23pts (+37.9%) were placed LTO
7/18 (38.9%) for 7.09pts (+39.4%) with those with a run in the previous 10 days
6/14 (42.9%) for 3.13pts (+22.4%) in 3yo contests
4/13 (30.8%) for 10.05pts (+77.3%) with females
4/11 (36.4%) for 2.18pts (+19.8%) in June
and 4/10 (40%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle
Plus from the unique Geegeez racecard pace/draw heatmap...
...which is why I placed...a 1pt win bet on My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-06-15 07:00:402020-06-15 11:20:54Stat of the Day, 15th June 2020
Week 2 after lockdown proved to be another good one for us with results of 122516 generating another weekly profit of 11pts, mainly thanks to a marvellous result on Friday. This means our worst case scenario for June is a 15pt profit for the month, but I'll going as hard as I can to at least maintain what we've already banked.
I would however like to remind you of last week's note of caution..." Those who have been with me for a while will already be expecting what I'm going to say next, though...it isn't/won't always be like this. We take the rough with the smooth at SotD and there'll be times when things don't go our way. No over-celebrating the winners and no over-mourning the losing streaks. Long-term profitability still remains the target!"
Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.
Chris
Selections & Results : 08/06/20 to 13/06/20
08/06 : Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 09/06 : Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 10/06 : Bavardages @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/2
11/06 : Almqvist @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 12/06 : Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG WON at 11/1
13/06 : Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 3/1
08/06/20 to 13/06/20 : 2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +11.00pts
June 2020 :
5 winners from 12 = 41.66% SR P/L: +29.00pts
ROI = +241.66%
2020 to date :
14 winners from 73 = 19.18% SR P/L: +14.83pts
ROI = +20.31%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here. Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here. Our review of 2015 can be found right here Whilst 2016's details are right here The full story from 2017 can be read here. Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
Last time we looked at a range of bookmaker concessions, and when they offered positive expected value, writes Russell Clarke. This week the focus is very much on each way betting and, specifically, 'extra place' races.
The mathematics surrounding each-way betting and extra place concessions is complicated and many factors have to be taken into account including the price of the horses concerned and the pricing make up/shape of the betting market on individual races. So, I will deliberately simplify, as follows:
Current e/w terms are typically
Non-handicaps: 5-7 runners, ¼ odds (2 places)
Non-handicaps: 8+ runners, 1/5 odds (3 places)
Handicaps: 5-7 runners, ¼ odds (2 places)
Handicaps: 8-11 runners, 1/5 odds (3 places)
Handicaps: 12-15 runners, ¼ odds (3 places)
Handicaps: 16+ runners, ¼ odds (4 places)
On these terms, we can mathematically calculate which races may favour the punter over the bookmaker in place terms. There are only two!
Let us look at the place part of the bet only... For ease of mathematics in a 9-runner race the true odds of a place are 6/3 (6 unplaced and 3 places in a 9 runner race) or 2-1 (3.0), but the place odds paid are 8-5 (2.6, assuming all runners have an equal 8/1 chance of winning and place odds are 1/5).
That is poor value, even if the assumption of all runners being equal is simplistic/unrealistic. Using the “all runners are equal” assumption, the only races where the place terms are in the punters' favour are 16+ runner handicaps. In a 16-runner race the true place odds are 12/4 (12 unplaced and 4 placed in a 16-runner race) or 3/1 (4.0), and the place odds paid are 15/4 (4.75, assuming all runners have an equal 15/1 chance of winning and place odds are ¼). The same equation can be used to calculate races with a different number of runners. Remember, there is no profit margin built into the bookmaker prices in these examples which is also, of course, unrealistic.
On a more practical level, an empirical analysis was undertaken for all of the races during the Flat 2018 season that calculated, from the starting prices, the overrounds (profit margins) that the bookmakers enjoyed in all races (win and place). Obviously, there was a positive overround for all win bets in all races. However, the place market (because bookmakers were arbitrarily offering 2, 3 or 4 places and 1/4 or 1/5 odds) tells a different story:
Non Handicaps: place overround by number of runners
In non-handicaps, in every race there was a positive place overround in favour of the bookmakers. However, in 8-runner races this was only 2.1% (compared with 18.3% for the win market). In 9-runner races it was 5.2% (compared with 18.7% for the win market). In these instances, you are better splitting your stake into an each-way bet than betting win only (this was also true, albeit to a lesser extent, in 10-, 11-, 12- and 13-runner non-handicaps). For reference, betting in a 16-runner non-handicap the place overround is an eye-watering 34.8% and this gets worse still as the number of runners increase. Playing each-way in such races is betting suicide.
Handicaps: place overround by number of runners
In handicaps, the story is a little different, because of the better place terms. In 16- and 17-runner handicaps there is actually a negative overround - an underround - of -3.5% and -1.5% respectively. This means that the place element in an each-way bet in 16- and 17-runner handicaps is actually in the punters' favour!
Overall, the place overround is below the win overround in 8-, 9-, and 12-plus runner races. So, in these races, splitting stakes for each-way betting is optimal over win only betting. In races of 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11 runners the reverse is true and you should bet win only.
Here are some tables that tell you the optimal bet (win or each-way) and the % advantage win/each-way bet has over the alternative win/each-way bet.
Non Handicaps: Win or each way? By number of runners
Handicaps: Win or each way? By number or runners
At this stage, bear in mind all of these numbers are at starting price. You can, therefore move these percentages more into your favour by taking the best prices available and simultaneously utilising Best Odds Guaranteed.
It should also be borne in mind that these are strictly comparison figures. Some of the WIN advantage percentages are only as high as they are (for example 7-runner handicaps at 13%) because the each-way alternative is so poor.
Key win vs each way points
The salient points from these tables are:
- The sweet-spots for each way betting are 16- and 17- runner handicaps.
- Each way betting is particularly advantageous (relatively) over win only betting in 8-10 runner non-handicaps.
This, in all probability, is a function of the reality that such races will be less competitive and have ‘lopsided’ markets dominated by a short-priced favourite; or, there is a big spread in prices (which is less likely in a handicap). In these instances, the mathematics make each-way betting more favourable.
Extra Place Each Way Betting
But what happens when the bookmakers offer extra places? And what effect does the tactic of reducing the fraction from 1/4 to 1/5 have on such offers?
The maths is not easy, so you may have to trust me here! I have restricted this analysis to handicaps (which is where the offers generally occur anyway).
Handicap extra place: 5 places instead of 4
If the offer is five places instead of four but odds are reduced to 1/5:
This makes the overround negative for bookmakers on the place part of the bet in races with 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20 runners (rather than just 16 and 17 runner races under the normal terms). In 16 runner races the negative overround increases to about -10%, which is a huge boost for punters!
Handicap extra place: 4 places instead of 3
If the offer is four places instead of three but odds are reduced to 1/5;
This makes the overround negative for the bookmakers on the place part of the bet in races of 12 and 13 runners. It also makes the place overround less than the win overround in all races from 12-15 runners. This means that all bets should be each-way rather than win bets when this concession is offered.
Handicap extra place: 3 places instead of 2
Finally, if the offer is three places rather than two (a rare bird):
This makes the overround negative for the bookmakers in 5- and 6- runner races (11% and 2% respectively) and still makes the place overround (although now in the bookmakers favour) less than the win overround in 7-runner races.
Again, these numbers assume starting price overrounds and you can reduce these substantially by taking the best available prices and simultaneously utilising best odds guaranteed.
Extra Place Concessions: Summary
Extra place concessions are highly favourable to punters and make each-way betting (in the majority of cases) mathematically optimal. You should therefore take advantage.
Of course, in certain big races, bookmakers get even more 'generous' and offer 6, 7, and occasionally 8 places, and on these occasions they should be viewed as “loss leaders” from the “soft” bookmakers that you can take full advantage of until they won't let you any more!
A final, important, caveat is that you must not accept enhanced place terms at the expense of ‘skinny’ win prices, and so some judgement is required.
Concessions are generally utilised by bookmakers to gain new clients or to gain client share from rivals. They invariably offer a degree of value and that degree can be calculated via the techniques shown in this article. Some are generous enough that they reward blanket support! Most will add to your bottom line if used judiciously.
- RC
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/EachWay_Concessions_ExtraPlaces.png320830Russell Clarkehttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngRussell Clarke2020-06-14 08:19:212020-06-14 10:58:26‘Money Without Work’ 5: Bookmaker Concessions – Each Way Betting
Ascot hosts the best domestic flat race meeting of the year, Royal Ascot. That meeting is also among the hardest from which to derive a betting profit.
With a meeting like Royal Ascot, and Ascot races in general, it is imperative to have a game plan, so let us attempt to know what we can know about the course and any nuances or biases it may have.
Ascot Course Characteristics
Ascot's course layout: straight up to a mile, with longer races on the round course. Also a round mile
Uphill
The above graphic illustrates the stiff test that the Ascot racecourse represents, with the red triangle just past the winning post signifying the highest point on the course. Thus there is an uphill drag almost the whole way up the straight. On the round course, the lowest point is at the round mile (Old Mile) start, meaning that distance is also almost entirely uphill, too.
For more extended races on the round course, which is actually closer to being triangular than round, there is some early respite in the loop prior to the long climb for glory.
Tight bends
It is also worth noting that the bend into the home straight for round course races is tight and, being situated just two and a half furlongs from the finish, can cause trouble in running with horses either locked in a pocket or having to fan very wide on the turn to find daylight.
For round course races, then, it is often advantageous to be on or close to the pace: here, a horse and rider will have no traffic problems and, if the fuel has been burned proportionately, can slingshot into the straight and prove very hard to peg back.
The main focus of this article, however, is on the straight track, and will cover draw, pace and draw/pace composite analyses for each of five-, six-, seven-, and eight-furlong races.
Ascot Draw / Pace Bias
There may then be a pace bias on the round course, but what of the straight track? Races here are run at five, six, seven and eight furlongs, many of them big field handicaps or Group race sprints, and our Draw Analyser can help understand historical advantages.
Ascot 5f Draw Bias
The below chart shows something we call PRB3 for five-furlong races of 14 runners or more (good or quicker) since 2009, based on actual draw (i.e. after non-runners have been accounted for). PRB3 is the rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten and it helps to better quantify the merit of a particular part of the track from a draw perspective. More information on PRB3 can be found here.
An average PRB score would be 50%, or 0.5, implying that a horse beat as many horses as beat it. Thus, any part of the track where the PRB(3) score is consistently greater than 0.5 implies a draw advantage. The converse is also true: a PRB(3) consistently below 0.5 implies a disadvantage in the starting stalls postcode lottery.
It can be seen, then, that, generally speaking, high numbers enjoy a slight benefit in big fields.
Ascot 5f Pace Bias
Horses racing from the front in big fields up Ascot's five furlong straight have fared best, as can be seen below. This information is derived from our Pace Analyser tool. The chart is based on place percentages, but the story is similar in the win context, too, as can be seen from the table and the coloured blobs above the chart.
The coloured blobs tell us that runners which led (or were very close to the pace, e.g. "pressed leader") in big field fast ground five furlong races at Ascot won nine races from 95 horses to adopt such a run style. That's a little under 10%, and was worth a profit at starting price of £20.50 to a £1 level stake. All other run styles were loss-making with win and place strike rates between half and two-thirds that of early leaders.
That is not to say it is always easy to identify the early speed, nor that a one-in-ten hit rate will be plain sailing; but it is worth knowing that pace bias looks a little stronger than draw bias at the minimum on fast ground and in big fields.
Ascot 5f Draw / Pace Combinations
As might be expected, runners with early pace that were drawn high have fared best in big field five-furlong races at Ascot. Our Draw Analyser tool - and the Draw tab within any race in our racecards - contains a heat map illustrating the draw/run style combinations. Sorted by percentage of rivals beaten, it looks like this:
As can be seen, horses are able to run their race from anywhere on the track, with no big negatives. However, there does appear to be a 'green triangle' for pace pressers drawn middle to high, with high drawn leaders significantly outperforming the 0.5 benchmark.
Ascot 5f Draw / Pace Summary
High draws may have the best of it in big field fast ground five-furlong races. So, too, may pace pressers. And being a fast starter drawn high compounds those positives, with five from 20 such runners prevailing (+23.5 at SP), and another four making the frame.
*
Ascot 6f Draw Bias
It's a similar story over six furlongs. If there is a stalls position bias, it might be slightly against low drawn horses, with middle to high persistently above the 0.5 mark as can be seen from this chart:
One important caveat to that is stall one, hard against the rail. That post position has secured seven winners from 58 to depart there, at a 12% clip (+44 level stakes at SP). It might be that the watering doesn't quite reach the innermost strip of turf and/or that the rail helps the runner there maintain its position. Either way, it looks material for all that it could be coincidental. [Stall one also outperformed its near neighbours, though to a lesser extent, over five furlongs.]
Ascot 6f Pace Bias
It is harder to lead all the way at six furlongs than it is at five, as can be seen by comparing the image below with the equivalent for the minimum trip above. Nevertheless, early leaders still have the best win and place strike rates, and an impact value of greater than 1.5. Those held up have also fared well relatively, with prominent and midfield runners collectively faring only as well as held up horses, from an almost 50% bigger sample.
Ascot 6f Draw / Pace Combinations
The combination of a high draw and early speed is again seen to good effect in the below 6f draw/pace heat map. But note also the performance of middle-to-high draws which are waited with. Any score of 0.55 or above can be considered meritorious in the general context of percentage of rivals beaten (PRB).
Ascot 6f Draw / Pace Summary
Over the six furlong range at Ascot, it is a similar story to the five furlong summary: early speed and a high draw are seen to best effect. But note the improved performance of hold up types, who are often exhilarating to watch if generally exasperating to wager!
*
Ascot 7f Draw Bias
The picture becomes less clear still when we move up in range to Ascot's straight seven furlongs. Although those berthed highest have fared best, in percentage of rivals beaten terms, the scale on the vertical axis of this chart is narrower: there is a less pronounced draw bias, indeed arguably there is nothing worth noting.
Ascot 7f Pace Bias
It is a long way home in a big field cavalry charge up the stiff straight seven furlongs, and those waited with have performed clearly best. The chart below is sorted by place percentage for the sake of consistency with previously discussed distances, but the win percentage line would have been even more striking.
Indeed, perusing the table reveals that held up runners have won more seven-furlong Ascot races than the other run styles combined! Numerically, they've prevailed at 6.73% compared with all other run styles' combined 3.72%. It is clear that patience is a virtue in this particular trial.
Ascot 7f Draw / Pace Combinations
The heat map again ratifies the individual considerations of draw and pace, with those draw away from low and held up generally performing best, in PRB terms.
As an indicator of how difficult it is to win at Ascot over seven furlongs from the front, I've included the same heat map sorted this time by win percent:
Just two of the 90 horses to have vied for the early lead in the sample managed to get home. Middle to high and waited with achieved significantly more.
*
Ascot Straight Mile Draw Bias
In fuller fields on the straight mile course, close to a wing has been better than up the middle, perhaps providing greater assurance of 'a run' away from the density of what can be a highly populous centre pack:
Ascot Straight Mile Pace Bias
From a pace perspective, the pendulum swing has completed its arc, with held up runners now not only ascendant in win strike rate terms but also profitable to back. Indeed a £1 e/w bet on all such runners over Ascot's straight mile would have yielded a surplus of £83.60. Hold up types have won as many races as all other run styles combined from slightly more than half as many runners.
Those racing prominently have a horrible record, winning at not markedly better than 1% of the time.
Ascot Straight Mile Draw / Pace Combinations
This is a classic heat map image, with a clear diffusion of colour: greens at the back, oranges and reds at the front. There is little of note in terms of stall position but a stonewall takeaway from a run style perspective.
*
Ascot Straight Track Draw and Pace Summary
As with all tracks, it is a very solid starting point for your wagering considerations to understand the constitution of the course and any general principles which may assist. Our racecourse pages, including this one for Ascot, will help in that regard.
Based on what has been shown above, there is a pleasingly clean pattern to proceedings:
- Pace pressers perform best in five and six furlong sprints, more so at the shorter trip.
- It is much harder to hold on to the lead at seven furlongs and a mile, where waited-with types have the best of it.
- Generally speaking, middle to high is better than low at up to seven furlongs on the straight track, while...
- It may be preferable to be drawn closer to one rail or other in big field straight mile races, particularly if you like a hold up type.
It is unlikely that any of the above will help find winners by itself, but it ought to steer generally in the right direction. Naturally, Geegeez Gold has many more tools to assist the elimination process, and you can find out more about them here. Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ascotracecourse_googlemap.jpg379830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2020-06-11 09:42:572023-07-17 10:54:17Ascot: Course Overview and Draw Bias
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