Tag Archive for: Tix

How to Use Tix for Multi-Race (Placepot) Bets

/in , /by

Using Tix for Jackpots, Placepots, Quadpots & the Scoop 6, primarily focusing on Placepots

Geegeez readers should by now be aware of the online software called Tix, which Matt built in conjunction with the developer who built much of the coding for the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools, writes Dave Renham. The Tix software is designed to be used for tote multi-race pool bets such as the Jackpot, Placepot, Quadpot and Scoop 6. It enables punters to produce more sophisticated and strategic permutations than the bog-standard perm approaches most punters use.

Tote Bets: A Quick Intro

Before discussing the software, it should be noted that the Tote take a percentage out of any final pool, the amount depending on the bet. Below is a table showing the percentage take-outs for the main pool bets:

 

Pool bet Percentage taken out
Jackpot 29%
Placepot 27%
Quadpot 26%
Scoop 6 30%

As we can see they are all in the same ballpark. If we consider the Placepot, therefore, if 27% is taken out that leaves 73% of the original pool being shared between winners.

To help understand the maths, here is an example. For a final total of £100,000 bet into a particular Placepot pool where there was £200 remaining at the end of the six races, the dividend would be worked out thus:

£100,000 x 73% = £73,000

£73,000 divided by 200 = £365

£365 is the dividend is to a £1 stake.

The lure of Placepots and Jackpots is the chance of a big payout for relatively small outlays. Personally, I have never regularly played the Jackpot but play plenty of Placepots. I’ve been fortunate enough to have enjoyed some reasonable wins, and one very big win, but of course there have been many occasions when I have lost all of my stake. As far as this article is concerned, I am going to focus on using Tix for Placepots, because it is the most commonly played of the tote multi-race bets.

Playing Placepots the Traditional Way

Let's first look at how we could play these pool bets without the aid of Tix.

One line 'Hail Mary'

The first method is to simply pick one horse in each race. In a Placepot, there are six legs and so that would be six horses. In order to win a share of the Placepot all six must either win or place. This would be the case even if we pick six favourites. For those wanting to put the favourite in as the only selection in each of the six races, this is possible because there is a Placepot option to back the unnamed favourite.

Tthere are plenty of races where the market is quite tight at the top and we would be guessing which horse is sent off favourite, so for ‘favourite’ fans this is a useful option. However, the chance of all six favourites winning or placing is surprisingly rare. Indeed, looking at the 177 flat race meetings held in the UK in April and May of this year only 13 times did six favourites win or place in each of the first six races on the card.

However, that did not mean there would have been 13 theoretical winning Placepots for favourite only backers. This is because three of these 13 did not count due to a situation where a joint favourite won or placed, but the other joint favourite did not. When this happens there can only be one horse deemed to be favourite so the horse with the lowest racecard number becomes the favourite for pool bet purposes. Hence, if we had gone down the unnamed favourite Placepot route in April and May we would have had 177 Placepots bets of which 10 won.

The problem with all favourites placing is that the dividend tends to be very low when this happens, and that was the case with all ten dividends as the table below shows:

 

Date Course Dividend to £1 stake
7th April 2025 Kempton £6.20
12th April 2025 Brighton £12.40
12th April 2025 Thirsk £8.00
1st May 2025 Redcar £11.50
3rd May 2025 Goodwood £9.90
5th May 2025 Windsor £10.50
9th May 2025 Nottingham £7.30
21st May 2025 Chepstow £13.20
23rd May 2025 Goodwood £5.90
26th May 2025 Windsor £8.00

 

If we had placed let’s say a £2 bet on each of the 177 Placepots our outlay would have been £354. Our returns would have been £185.80 showing a LOSS of £168.20. Ouch!

Favourites obviously command the most amount of money wagered in Placepots which is why, when all six win or place, the dividends are so low. Interestingly, there were two meetings in April and May where no favourites placed in any of the six races – the dividends for these meetings were somewhat different.

 

Date Course Dividend to £1 stake
19th April 2025 Musselburgh £1954.50
31st May 2025 Lingfield £4022

 

The '2x2'

For seasoned Placepot players selecting a single horse in each race is not a credible strategy. In the period discussed we have seen that putting the favourite as the only selection in each race secured a winning Placepot less than 6% of the time, and delivered significant losses.

An alternative and more popular approach is to choose two horses in each race giving players more coverage. We call this a permutation, or perm. If we choose two horses per race rather than one, the number of bets or lines goes up drastically from one to 64 because we multiply the number of selections per race to get the total number of selections.

1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 = 1 while 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 64

Take three horses per race and we are looking at 729 bets or lines.

Obviously, the chances of winning part of the pot increase but the more bets/lines we have the more we are staking, which will have an impact on any final returns.

Variable perms

To try and reduce the number of perms, some Placepot players vary the number of horses chosen for each race. Hence, they may have a couple of races where they choose just one horse – a so called ‘banker’; perhaps they have three horses in two of the other races, and five in each of the final two races.

In this scenario the number of bets or lines would be calculated 1 x 1 x 3 x 3 x 5 x 5 which equals 225 bets. This idea covers 18 horses in total (the same as the three horses in every race perm) but cuts the number of bets/lines down considerably.

Thus, varying the number of horses chosen per race is the most sensible method discussed to date; but it is time to talk Tix and a more sophisticated approach to adjusting the Placepot perms.

Introducing Tix

The Tix software allows us to use what is known as the ‘ABCX’ approach. This approach essentially allows players to group horses by order of confidence / perceived chance. In terms of a Placepot the thinking would be along these sorts of lines (or at least this is the way I think!) -

 

A Horses – horses that I believe are genuine contenders to win or place; or horses that I perceive to be overpriced within the mid-range of prices such as a 10/1 shot that I think ought to be 5/1, or a 12/1 shot that is 6/1 on my reading of the race.

B Horses – the next best options that we can make a case for especially if one or more of the A contenders underperform.

C Horses – horses that are unlikely to win but have some chance of placing. An example may be a horse overpriced at 33/1 we perceive should half that price at least. Or a less fancied horse well drawn over a course and distance that has a strong bias.

X Horses – horses that are excluded from calculations as their win or place chance seems extremely unlikely or I feel they are significantly over-factored in the market.

 

For Placepots my preferred approach is to have more A’s than B’s and maybe one or two C’s. However, for bigger meetings such as Royal Ascot, I tend to load up on A’s and have more C’s than B’s. I am sure others will have alternative approaches that may well be better than mine. Hopefully the more I use the software the more I can finesse my methods.

In terms of the Tix software the A horses will occur in more bets/lines than the B’s that in turn occur in more bets/lines than the C’s. The table below shows all the possible combinations or perms for each individual Placepot ticket – I have colour coded them to help make it clearer. A rated selections are in red, B are in black and C are in green.

 

 

This way of combining the horses is far more efficient and a lot cheaper! The way Tix is designed is that we can have a maximum of 28 individual tickets and this only occurs if we pick at least one horse in each of A, B and C positions in every race - as per the image above.

Tix Selection Flexibility

Keeping to the ‘three horses in a race scenario’, here are total number of bets/lines based on the Tix options, assuming we keep to the same combination for all six races. It includes the two I have already shared:

 

Combos All 3 on A 2 on A, 1 on B 2 on A, 1 on C 1A, 1B, 1C 1 on A,  2 on B 1 on A, 2 on C
Total Bets 729 496 256 28 73 13

 

The table shows the flexibility of the Tix software in terms of being able to offer various ‘number of bet’ scenarios, and remember, these example numbers are based on choosing the same A, B and/or C combination for all six races. Assuming we wanted to put three horses into each race we of course could choose a different three-way combination for each race such as:

 

Race no. Column A (no. of selections) Column B (no. of selections) Column C (no. of selections) Total no. of horses in race
1 2 1 0 3
2 1 1 1 3
3 1 2 0 3
4 3 0 0 3
5 1 0 2 3
6 2 0 1 3

 

This particular Tix construction of three horses per race would equate to 138 lines. It would take several pages to list all possible Tix bet constructions of three horses in each of the six races, so I’ll spare readers that! On the Tix site, our ticket with this type of perm/construction would potentially look something like this:

 

 

To be clear, the green column is for A picks, the yellow is for B picks, and C picks are in the right hand sandy coloured column. And these numbers in the specific columns would give us the following ten tickets:

 

 

As we can see, for this example there are ten specific groupings (tickets), and we would need at least one of those of ten groupings to have a win or placed horse in each of the six races to get a return. Of course, we may achieve a return that is less than our original stake, so six ‘win or placers’ on one of the tickets does not guarantee a profit.

If all eighteen horses manage to place then we probably would be dreaming but in that unlikely scenario these ten specific groupings/tickets would combine to have all 138 bets/lines as winning ones.

Tix Staking Flexibility

So, one of the brilliant parts about using Tix is this selection flexibility. A further feature in terms of flexibility is that we can adjust our stakes in terms of the four main groupings. This is the default position with the same stakes on each:

 

 

However, anyone who has seen Matt post his Tix selections on the site (like he did brilliantly at Royal Ascot 2025, I might say) will know he has a favoured strategy thus:

 

- All A's: 4x unit stake

- Five A's with one B pick: 3x unit stake

- Four A's with two B picks: 2x unit stake

- Five A's with one C pick: 1x unit stake

 

Using the ‘Matt Method’ we would simply tick the relevant boxes thus:

 

 

Using the example of my ten tickets shared above, this means ticket 1 (all A's) has a 4x amplification, tickets 2 to 4 (any 5 A's with 1 B) are 3x unit stake, tickets 5 to 7 (any 4 A's with 2 B's) are 2x normal stakes, and tickets 8 to 10 (any 5 A's with 1 C) are 1x stakes.

Of course, this stake amplification on certain tickets will increase the overall outlay but we're pressing up our strongest opinions whilst mixing in some 'big dividend' prospects.

In this specific example based on an original 1p per bet/line, and having no increase in stakes (so betting all lines with the same stake of 1p), it would cost £1.38.

Using the 4-3-2-1 Matt method would increase stakes to £3.00. The reasoning behind Matt’s staking plan is logical. The A horses are more likely to win or place than the Bs, who in turn should outperform the Cs. Hence the all-A column should have the highest stake, the 5A 1B column should come next and so on.

This staking method is one option, possibly the best one; obviously there are plenty of others that could be used. Also, at this point, it should be noted there is another way to adjust our stakes. We can adjust individual tickets by clicking on the ‘stake’ box at the bottom of each ticket and changing the default stake.

 

 

For those readers who have yet to use Tix, how to use the software is specific to each individual. Some I’m sure will not adjust stakes, some will. Some will load up with A’s, some may spread their horses more evenly. However, it is important to appreciate that each race meeting is different, and we are likely to play a Placepot at Carlisle with very few runners on the card differently to one at Royal Ascot where field sizes are much bigger and very competitive.

Wider Coverage

Thinking of the bigger meetings like Royal Ascot with their huge and competitive fields, it is likely that there will be an increase in the number of horses that will be used in our placepots. Earlier I looked at an imaginary three horses per race scenario sharing how placing them in different columns affected the total number of lines. Now let's look at the same idea using four horses per race (24 horses in total). Again, I have assumed that we have split the horses into the same columns for each race. Obviously placing four horses in the exact same columns for each of the six races is something that in practice we would almost definitely not do, but my reasoning is two-fold. Firstly, it is easy for me to calculate and share the total number of bets for each grouping. And secondly it gives us a decent understanding of the ‘number of total bets’ differences we can get using this flexible software:

 

Combos All 4 on A 3 on A, 1 on B 3 on A, 1 on C 2 on A, 2 on B 2 on A,  2 on C
Total Bets 4096 3402 2187 1408 448
Combos 2 on A, 1 on B, 1 on C 1 on A,  3 on B 1 on A, 2 on B, 1 on C 1 on A, 1 on B, 2 on C 1 on A, 3 on C
Total Bets 688 154 79 34 19

 

We can see that if selecting all 24 horses in the A column (four in each race) the number of bets/lines is a massive 4096. However, when we spread them more evenly but keep mostly A’s, such as a 2A, 1B and 1C scenario for each race, this cuts the bets/lines down to 688.

As I mentioned earlier for ease of calculations, I have assumed that each race has the same A, B, C combo or grouping. But, of course, Tix players will play each race according to its make-up. Considerations will be affected by the number of runners, the individual strengths of the runners, the relative prices of those runners, etc. For example, a three-runner race with a 1/12 favourite could see us choose that favourite on A as a stand-alone banker. A three-runner race where all three horses are priced between 13/8 and 2/1 may mean we choose all three in the A column. Only one of them will count in a final Placepot dividend while the other two will be losers and all lines involving those two will ‘die’.

Example Tix Play: Royal Ascot

I now want to share my Tuesday Placepot at Royal Ascot this year and how I played it using Tix. In terms of staking, I didn’t use Matt’s 4-3-2-1 method, I simply kept to the same 1p stakes per ticket.

Leg 1 - Queen Anne Stakes:

This was the race I previewed for Geegeez on the Tuesday and happily my two selections came first and second. The winner, Docklands, returned 14/1 (backed in from 25/1) so that was a good start to the week on an individual punting front. The runner up Rosallion was favourite and pre-race I was tempted to leave him as the stand-alone ‘A’ selection in my Placepot; but the race did have a very competitive look about it. So I played safe taking five selections across two columns. I also split Rosallion and Docklands up putting Docklands on C – silly me as that turned out.

Leg 1 selections

A – numbers 4 and 10

C  - numbers 3, 5 and 6

Horses that won/placed: one A, and one C

 

Leg 2 - Coventry Stakes:

These 2yo races with loads of runners and little form are the ones I fear most in Placepots with only three places available (and so it proved here). I went big trying to cover as many bases as possible with four A’s and four C’s:

A – numbers 1, 2, 13 and 20

C  - numbers 8, 9, 11 and 17

Horses that won/placed: one C

This was frustrating from the point of view that two of my A selections finished fourth and fifth. On the flip side, I was still in the pot with one of my C’s placing, and two of the placers were 66/1 and 80/1 meaning very few tickets had those runners on them.

Having played just A’s and C’s I was now needing at least one A horse to win or place in the final four races.

 

Leg 3 - King Charles III Stakes:

This was another horrible race with 23 runners and only three places up for grabs. My only strong opinion on the race was that American Affair was overpriced and I was happy for that to be one of my A’s. I went four A’s and two C’s. American Affair won.

A – numbers 1, 7, 14 and 16

C  - numbers 3 and 12

Horses that won/placed: two A’s

 

Leg 4 - St James's Palace Stakes:

Although there were only two places available in this seven-runner race, there were four rags and an odds-on fav in Field Of Gold. I had him and Henri Matisse as my A’s. No need for any ‘C’ cover.

A – numbers 1, 3

Horses that won/placed: two A’s

 

Leg 5 - Ascot Stakes:

There were two at a price I liked here in Nurburgring and Ascending. I decided to split them with Nurburgring on A and Ascending on C. I put one of the well fancied Mullins pair on A and what I hoped was another live outsider on C.

A – numbers 13 and 20

C  - numbers 3 and 9

Horses that won/placed: one A, and one C

Ascending beat Nurburgring for a £665 exacta (and no I didn’t have it!). At least I had one A selection that counted so was still in the Placepot game with one to play.

 

Leg 6 - Wolferton Stakes:

With no eventual non-runners this 16-runner Listed race had only three horses to count in the Placepot. Before the race I was very keen on Sons And Lovers thinking this must finish in the frame. I decided two have two A’s and one C.

A – numbers 9 and 14

C  - number 15

Horses that won/placed: one A

Sons And Lovers faded into fifth annoyingly, but fortunately my other A got the job done.

Here's how these selections would have looked in the Tix columns.

 

Leg Column A Column B Column C
1 4, 10 3, 5, 6
2 1, 2, 13, 20 8, 9, 11, 17
3 1, 7, 14, 16 3, 12
4 1, 3
5 13, 20 3, 9
6 9, 14 15

 

 

The numbers in bold are the horses that won or placed, but two of them ended up being redundant (number 5 in leg 1 and number 9 in leg 5). The rest, in red, counted on one of the '5 on A, 1 on C' lines and, because I had two win/placed horses in two of the races, I ended up with four winning lines (1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 1).

The Placepot to a £1 stake paid £2767.40 meaning each of my four 1p lines netted £27.67, so the overall return on that winning ticket was £110.68 (£27.67 x 4 winning lines). Taking my stake into account and the 5% bonus the Tote pays on winning Tix tickets (yet another reason for using Tix!), I ended up with a profit on the bet of just over £102.

What if?

One two-word phrase we are all too familiar with is ‘what if?’ - so, just for fun, I am going to play that game now. What if I had put six of my original selections in different columns? More specifically, what if my three ‘placers’ on C had been put on A instead; and three of my ‘losers’ from A had been put on C instead?

To achieve this scenario, I could have swapped horses 4 and 5 over in race one, horses 1 and 9 in race two, and horses 20 and 3 in race five. If I had instead done that, I would have had two places in legs 1, 3, 4 and 5, and one place each in legs 2 and 6. That would have given me 16 winning lines quadrupling the return to over £400. Considering all my selections were in A and C this scenario could have happened. Likewise, if a few of my winning A’s ended up as C's I would have won diddly!

Sticking with the ‘what if?’ line, what if my original ticket had been staked differently using Matt’s 4,3,2,1 method? Well, due to only having one successful 5A 1C combo the same payout of £110.68 would have occurred on that ticket (same 1p stake), but the cost of the overall bet would have increased by £7.68 meaning my overall profit would be slightly down at just over £94. (I appreciate that an extra £7.68 stake would have impacted the real-life pot, but it is such a small amount if I had played the bet this way instead my profit would have been virtually the same, give or take a penny or two).

I also looked at what would have happened if I had put all my C selections as B’s instead, sticking to my original 1p per line staking. This would have added an extra £20 or so to the overall stake but I would have had 12 winning lines so my return would have been around the £300 mark (allowing again for any marginal change in the actual Placepot payout due to the extra £20 of staked funds).

Summary

In this article I feel I have only scratched the surface when it comes to the potential and scope of the Tix software. In the first half of the article, I gave a general overview of how Tix works coupled with the flexibility it has in terms of limiting/varying the number of lines using certain configurations. In the second half I have delved into one of my recent Placepot plays looking at what happened, and what could have happened if I had made some slight alterations via Tix to the make-up of my Placepot.

Before writing this, I was a regular user of Tix. Having spent time researching and writing about it, my appreciation and confidence in Tix has improved even more. I am expecting Tix to help me profit further when tackling Placepots in the future. I might even be tempted into a few Jackpots too...

- DR

Royal Ascot Tix Picks, Day 1

/in , /by

This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'll be making a suggested placepot permutation each day.

I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]

Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.

When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.

Tix Bonus

Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.

Prizes to be won

And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away

Tuesday to Friday

For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.

Saturday

On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.

So that's £300 in prizes this week!

What do you need?

You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]

**

OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!

Leg 1 - Queen Anne Stakes:

In the end I've opted to bank in the first race and prey (and potentially place lay) for Rosallion. He should improve a ton from Newbury. There are lots and lots of dangers but I want to throw plenty of mud in later legs so it's Rosallion banker and devil take the hindmost.

A - 10 Rosallion

Leg 2 - Coventry Stakes:

The 123 last year were 80/1, 40/1, 50/1 so I'm putting a cast of thousands on a dreamy C ticket. I'll need A horses to place in the all other five legs for this to fly and, in truth, it's probably not too smart. I'm also loading up on A's. If we survive leg 2, it will be interesting.

A - 1 American Gulf, 9 Gstaad, 12 Postmodern, 13 Power Blue, 20 Underwriter
C - 4 Bone Marra, 5 Bourbon Blues, 6 Coppull, 8 Gavoo, 10 Kolkata Knight, 16 Shaatir, 17 Super Soldier, 19 Tricky Tel

Leg 3 - King Charles III Stakes:

23 runners, only three places up for grabs. Sheesh. Regional is fast, so too Asfoora who sees out a stiff five well as she did when winning this last year. Believing is a third very obvious dart. Hard to see all three missing the podium. Ed Walker has improved Mgheera since she arrived from France and she may not be finished yet.

A - 7 Regional, 12 Asfoora, 14 Believing, 16 Mgheera

Leg 4 - St James's Palace Stakes:

I really want to bank on Henri Matisse but I'm not brave enough. You might be!

A - 1 Field Of Gold, 3 Henri Matisse

Leg 5 - Ascot Stakes:

Willie has a good grip on the market here, and he's bagged Buick and Moore to ride Poniros and Reaching High respectively. That pair will take out chunks of the pool between them so we need to find something that might knock them off the tickets. Poniros is drawn higher than ideal. East India Dock's jump mark of 145+ implies he has a bit more to give on the level though he's been in a lot of scraps without a break. 18 is a bad draw, too. Manxman is progressive, handles big fields, is tactically versatile and has a great post. Mr Hampstead has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is also well drawn and progressive.

Woot City is well related, well drawn and a massive price. C. Divine Comedy placed last year and the trainer has a fantastic Ascot record. Also C, along with the well drawn guesses Ascending and Saturn.

A - 8 Manxman, 15 Reaching High, 19 Mr Hampstead, 20 Poniros

C - 3 Divine Comedy, 9 Ascending, 12 Saturn, 18 Woot City

Leg 6 - Wolferton Stakes:

Only once since this race became a non-handicap in 2018 has the unnamed favourite missed the frame - and that was in the inaugural non-handicap renewal. It's likely to be Enfjaar but we'll let the market decide. On B, I'll roll with a Wathnan trio in Haunted Dream, Torito and King's Gambit.

A - Unnamed favourite

B - 10 Haunted Dream, 11 King's Gambit, 15 Torito

Full ticket view

For pennies, £24.96 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives a 4p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.

Full disclosure: even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!

The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:

 

 

And the breakdown by ticket is like this:

 

 

Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.

Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.

How to play the Cheltenham Festival Placepot

/in /by

With four days of fierce sport at the Cheltenham Festival looming in the headlights, and much of the form study complete, now is a great time to think about strategy.

Availing of any bookmaker concessions to which you're still entitled is a no-brainer, and the best I'm aware of to date on that score is the tote's "money back as a free bet if second", which will be honoured on all 28 Festival races. Allied to their guarantee to at least match the industry starting price, it's one I'll be using with some regularity through the week.

The other tote angle I'll be playing all week is swinging at the massive placepot pools - £750,000 guaranteed daily, but likely to be closer to a million quid is my guess. And possibly also a crack at Tuesday's jackpot.

To help think about how to play the Cheltenham Festival placepot, let's start at the beginning...

Getting set up

The first thing you need is a tote account. You'll need that to get the free bet if second concession as well, of course. Most readers will already have a tote account but if you don't yet, you can get yours here. You'll probably be offered some other sweetener(s) to open and play on that account, but obviously always check the terms and conditions.

Once you've got your tote account, it's time to know a bit about the way it tends to shake down in CheltenhamPlacepotLand (that's not a real place, obviously).

The Shape of Cheltenham Placepot Dividends

The nature of the Festival is that some days feel harder to bet than others; and that's mainly, as evidenced by the tables below, because some days are harder to bet than others.

This first table shows the pool size and declared placepot dividend for each of the last twelve Cheltenham Festivals. I've colour coded the 'dividend' column where red is a skinny one and green is a big fat juicy (and almost certainly nigh on impossible to hit) payout.

 

 

Realistically, you'd have needed a crystal ball or a very, very, very lucky Mr Felt Tippy to find a placed horse six times in some of those Friday sequences. At the other end of the spectrum, there have been plenty of meh divvies. The sweet spot of gettable and worth getting is in the yellow coloured blocks. Happily, there are lots of those.

Yearly breakdown

In the next two tables, I've broken down these data into Festival years and Festival days. Years first.

 

 

Last year was a flattish one for dividends, the average and median closely aligned at a little north of a hundred quid. But the year before, 2023, saw a median of seven grand. (For the non-maths buffs, the mean average is the sum of the four days' dividends divided by four whereas the median is the middle value of the four days' dividends when placed in order - because there isn't a middle number in four days we take the average of the middle two values. Hopefully that makes vague sense at least.)

There has been the odd flat year from a median perspective, but eight of the twelve years rounded out above £200; and in a quarter of the years the median was better than a thousand of your English pounds (or Irish Euros - you can play those, too, don't you know).

Which day is hardest?

Let's look at the individual days now. There have been a few changes to the race programme this year, both in terms of race conditions and sequence, the impact of which cannot be known at this stage. If the changes have served their purpose, field sizes will be bigger, and the implication is that finding placed horses may be slightly more challenging - and therefore dividends may be commensurately higher. That's the theory at least.

Here's how the dozen years looked on a day to day basis:

 

 

The means are all over the place due to some massively outlying dividends. Tuesday has a £91,000 for a £1 return on its dance card, for example; that's why median is so useful. We can see that, with a median of just £42, Tuesday is typically the 'easiest' day to hit the placepot.

Following that median column down shows a sliding scale of difficulty through the week, culminating in what I like to call "give back Friday", which of course very much presumes you've anything to return at the end of Thursday!

Anyway, those are the numbers. Tuesday may be a day to go narrow, Wednesday and Thursday are days to sharpen the quill, and Friday might be a day to be lucky rather than good.

Bonus Bunce #1

Value is the name of the game, however you play it. If you play for fun, you'll stretch the fun out for longer if you get value. If you play for funds, you don't need me to tell you about the absolutely necessity of getting value. Me? I'm in for both, and seeing as you're reading this, I'd wager you are, too.

So here are two slices of bonus bunce coming your way this week. Three if you count the tote win 'money back as a free bet if second' concession. I keep mentioning it because it's really very good. Anyway, I digress.

The first bonus chip is Tix, a piece of software I developed with Nige, the guy who built most of the geegeez website, that does smart (and less smart if you prefer) staking on multi-race bets like the placepot. Tix saves, literally, hours of faff if you want to cover the most likely permutations without shelling out a gazillion escudos. And - here's where the bonus comes in - winning tickets get paid 5% extra.

If five percent doesn't sound that much, keep in mind that at the end of the punting year it's comfortably the difference between winning and losing overall for a big chunk of the type of literate racing players found ambling across the verdant plains of a site like this one.

In plain English, if you're playing placepot and you're not staking optimally and you're not getting extra money when you win, you're doing it wrong. Don't do it wrong.

Tix is easy to use and if you have a tote account, you've got all you need to get started with it.

1 If you need to, get your tote account from this link

2 Then watch the two minute Tix explainer video here

3 When you're ready to play, go to the app here

4 Put your top fancies in the 'A' column, with lesser hopes on 'B' and perhaps 'C'

5 Cheer them home

6 Get 105% of the dividend on your winners

Bonus Bunce #2

As well as the above, Tix players will be automatically entered into a competition where one (or more) lucky 'potters will share £100 each day. The winner(s) will be the person who gets the highest stake-to-return multiple. For example, if your ticket cost was £2.40 and the return was £240, your stake to return multiple would be 100 (£2.40 x 100 = £240).

We'll do all the sums so you don't need to worry about that. Just know that I chose this approach because it makes it accessible to all players, whether you stake a couple of pounds (or less) or hundreds. We all bet differently and to different stakes, and that should never matter. So the stake to return method makes it a game for everyone to play.

A couple of admin lines on the comp:

  1. In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
  2. Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
  3. The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
  4. Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).

 

Please do enter if you're into placepots, jackpots, quadpots and the like. Your first spin on Tix might be a bit confusing but you'll very quickly get the hang of it. And if you want to simply play the same bet you always do - but with 5% extra when you win, and the chance to cop £100 in the competition - just put all of your picks in the 'A' column, and choose 'x1' on the 'TICKETS' tab - see below.

 

 

 

It's simple once you know how. You can play for a little as penny stakes, so feel free to have a practice run today. Here's the link to TIX again.

If you have any questions, just drop them in the comments below and I'll do my best to answer.

Now, let's get this party started - good luck!

Matt

2025 Cheltenham Festival Prep

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The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. For some it's just another race meeting, for many it's a special week in the racing calendar, and for a few it's Christmas and birthday rolled into one. Wherever you fit on that spectrum there are things about betting on Cheltenham that are different and that you ought to know. Those extend to what we're doing here on geegeez.co.uk, so let me share the plan for next week...

Daily Festival Previews

We'll have daily previews through the week covering all of the seven races each day. I'm delighted to say that I've got a crack squad of racing thinkers and writers to help you comb the form. They are:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.

Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.

Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.

They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?

Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start each day this year, so don't oversleep!

What else?

As well as those daily previews, we've a dedicated Cheltenham zone which you can access here. There you'll find the latest news and updates about the horses, trainers and jockeys associated with the Festival; full trends analysis from Andy Newton across the four days and 28 races; and links to the races themselves.

Gold subscribers will have access to pace maps, full form, video replay links, and our profiling tools, Instant Expert and Profiler. You can grab a weekly ticket for just £15 here.

Offers Galore

There will be offers galore throughout the week and one of the best chances to come out in front at the Cheltenham Festival is to press up any and all for which you're eligible. One of the very best that I'm aware of at this stage is Tote's 'Money Back as a Free Bet if Second' on all 28 races. So, for example, you could bet Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and get your stake reloaded if one horse beats him; or Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle and get a free bet if Constitution Hill does Constitution Hill things.

Obviously there will be races where your pick is neither first nor second, but this offer is one I'll be playing in almost all of the non-handicaps at least.

Geegeez' sister site, Tix, is a partner of Tote and I'm happy to mention their great deals for customers. If you don't yet have a tote account you can get one here. Then you'll be able to a) get their 'new account' goodness, b) play Tix and c) avail of the offer above.

N.B. You need to opt in to this offer which you can do from the 'Promotions' tab on tote's website.

 

 

Elsewhere, bet365 will have daily Super Boosts - one horse they think they can get beaten and on which they are prepared to offer a tempting price.

William Hill are offering players a free bet (stake varies) to use on Day 1.

And I expect all bookmakers to have something for at least some customers before Tuesday's action gets underway - so keep your eyes peeled.

Quick disclaimer: obviously, you need to read the terms and conditions for any offer you're wanting to avail of. Make sure to opt in where required, and only bet what you'd otherwise burn on beer, coffee or something else frivolous.

Daily Tix Competition: Win £100 each day!

If you're new around here, you may not know about Tix, a brilliant piece of tote multi-race software, I co-created. It basically allows for smarter perms on wagers such as the placepot, jackpot, Scoop 6, quadpot, and placepot 7. The short video below explains how it works:

 

 

We've teamed up with tote to offer a daily Tix competition across the four days of Cheltenham. You'll be entered when you place any Cheltenham multi-race bet through the Tix app, and there's £100 in cash each day to the player with the highest stake to return ratio.

What is a stake to return ratio? Well, it's basically the ticket odds, and it's a way of making the competition equally accessible to smaller and larger staking players.

Here are a couple of examples to illustrate how it will work:

Example 1: Ticket cost £1.20, ticket payout (return) £42.50

Stake to return ratio is 42.5/1.2 = 35.42

Example 2: Ticket cost £10, ticket payout (return) £180

Stake to return ratio is 180/10 = 18

In these scenarios, Example 2 returns more actual cash (£180 vs £42.50), and a bigger actual profit (£170 vs £41.30), than Example 1.

But Example 1 has the higher stake to return ratio (35.42 vs 18) and would therefore win the competition if these were the two entries.

A couple of rules.

  1. In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
  2. Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
  3. The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
  4. Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).

What now?

Already on site, in our Cheltenham Festival Zone, are daily trends for all four days; some preview night notes and a further trends deep dive into the Gold Cup; a glut of latest news; and links to the 28 races. If you're a Gold or Lite subscriber, those races will have extra detail such as recent winners, pace maps, and form profiles. You can get Gold (or Lite) here.

I can't wait to get started!

Matt

Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25

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So, here we are, with what is I think will be my last column on Geegeez. After countless episodes of Stat of The Day, Racing Insights and more recently here on Tix Picks, my time is up.

Sadly a combination of having to go to press early on Friday and the possibility of abandonments are forcing my hand a little, but Saturday's racing  is supposed to come from Cork, Sandown Southwell, Wincanton & Wolverhampton, although it's quite possible there'll be no UK jumps racing.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Saturday's pools

Saturday's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...

I don't really 'do' Irish racing and both UK tracks are being inspected after I leave the North to head to Exeter to return my youngest to University, so I'm only faced with a choice of two modest-looking A/W cards on the Tapeta. The Southwell card looks a marginally higher standard than the Wolverhampton one, so let's head there for six races...

Race 1 @ 2.47...This looks like a two-horse race between (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army, both finished third on their last runs of 2024 with the latter having also done so in his previous outing. he also raced on Friday, winning by a length and a half at Lingfield over a mile.

I'll take both (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army here.

Race 2 @ 3.22...Alyara was narrowly beaten at Chelmsford two starts ago and then won a 1m handicap here at Southwell a fortnight ago. The drop in trip is interesting but he should go well again. Coconut Bay had a spell where he finished 222133931 in the spring/summer but hasn't really hit those heights again since a win over this trip at Catterick in August, but is now 2lbs below that winning mark

Inexplicable is a healthy 10 from 70 on tapeta, but he seems to save his best for Wolverhampton where he is 8/41 as opposed to his 1/18 here and he folded tamely at Newcastle on Thursday. Shaka is a bit of an A/W enigma, failing to win any of 16 starts, but has been the runner-up in three of his last seven, including two here at Southwell, of which one was over this course and distance.

Tenyatta has a slightly better A/W record at 1/12, but it's not much to shout about, although he was less than a length behind Alyara here a fortnight ago when 3rd of 12, so could well get involved again.

It's not a good race and should take much winning and I think that (1) Alyara, (8) Tenyatta and possibly (4) Coconut Bay are the ones to be with.

Race 3 @ 4.03...There are only three runners that remotely interest me here, so all three will be going on the bet builder...

(5) Fact Or Fable won at Bath in mid-August and although winless in six runs since, did show some signs of a return to some semblance of form when 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day, beaten by little more than half a length and just a head behind Monsieur Fantaisie (below) who finished third.

(7) Monsieur Fantaisie won here over track and trip and as stated above was a narrowly defeated placer at Wolverhampton just over a week ago. Off the same weights, I suppose the placings would remain unchanged, but there's not much between them.

(10) Tathmeen looks the most likely of the rest of the field to chase the above pair home and this 10 yr old veteran is no stranger to the winners' enclosure, having won 13 times on the A/W and after some indifferent form, is now 2lbs below his last winning mark and could surprise a few in this weak affair.

Race 4 @ 4.35...The one I 'like' most here is probably (1) Line Of Force who has three wins and a runner-up finish from his six starts to date and won here over 6f on his A/W debut last time out. More is expected from him now going handicapping. The biggest danger is likely to come from (2) Art Market who won a couple of handicaps on turf in the summer, one at 6f and one at today's trip. Hasn't raced for over three months and now makes an A/W debut 1lb lower than his last turf run.

Race 5 @ 5.05...Moon Over Miami has only raced twice before winning both times at Class 5 over 1m2f/1m3½f on the Flat. Might need the run though after eight months off and a two-step rise in class for his A/W debut. Old Harrovian was last seen finishing third of fourteen in a decent Class 2 handicap at Kempton on his comeback from a four month break. Since then, the winner has won again and the third placed horse has been a runner-up, so that bodes well here.

Asgard's Captain is 5 from 9 on the A/W over the last year with a runner-up finish to boot. He comes here off a win at Newcastle three weeks ago where he stayed on well and I'm not sure a 2lb rise in weight anchors him just yet. Glen Buck won both his first two races a fortnight apart in Jan/Feb of 2023; both on Tapeta and at trips of 1m and 1m1½f. He then reappeared at Wolverhampton six weeks to finish a very creditable third of thirteen over 1m1½f, defying his 656-day layoff and he'd be entitled to come on for having had that run.

Moon Over Miami is plenty good enough for this on another day, but I've concerns about fitness, class and the A/W debut, so I'll set him aside in favour of (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck

Race 6 @ 5.35...Not for the first time today that my picks almost select themselves, as there are only three I'm interested in.

(1) Just Ten High is 1172301 on the A/W and 1721 here at Southwell. he tackled 6f for the first time in his latest race and duly won won here over course and distance and must be the one to beat off a strong gallop.

(7) Bomb Squad has also won over C&D albeit back in August, but he comes here in good nick having finished 3521 in his last four and 321 in his last three over today's trip, all on tapeta including a win at Wolverhampton last time out.

(8) Laura's Breeze hasn't quite been as successful as the other pair, but she has made the frame in 9 of her 18 A/W starts and has 2 wins and 3 further places from 11 on tapeta. Her recent form reads 2733, so she's clearly in good nick and has won here in the past.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army

Leg 2: (1) Alyara, (4) Coconut Bay and (8) Tenyatta

Leg 3: (5) Fact Or Fable, (7) Monsieur Fantaisie & (10) Tathmeen

Leg 4: (1) Line Of Force & (2) Art Market

Leg 5: (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck

Leg 6: (1) Just Ten High, (7) Bomb Squad & (8) Laura's Breeze

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

And that, as they say, is a wrap. I'd like to thank everyone who has taken their time to read my ramblings over the last thirteen or so years in one guise or another, I have to say it has been a lot of fun.

Good Luck for Saturday, however you play the placepot and it's goodbye from me.

Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25

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Friday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

Again we'll follow the money down to Southwell for six races, starting with...

Race 1 @ 4.30...Sisterandbrother has already won on the Flat and over hurdles, but has yet to get off the mark on the A/W after seven attempts, although his last two visits to Southwell have seen him finish third on both occasions, beaten by around two lengths over similar trips to today. Young Endless has made the frame in 7 of 12 on the A/W, winning three times, Those three wins were all here at Southwell where he is 31211 and he's 2 from 2 over 1m6f here but he has struggled over this shorter trip in the past and hasn't been seen for seven months.

Paradoxical is 121 in his last three starts including a Tapeta win at Wolverhampton and a distance win at Lingfield last time out when sent off as the 11/10 fav on New Year's Eve. Up 5lbs for that win, but he was pretty comfortable there if truth be told. Khangai won over course and distance two months ago and has finished 3312 in four races since, all on Tapeta including a win over this trip at Wolverhampton before a 1.25 length defeat here over 1m6f five days ago. He now drops back in trip, but runs off the same mark and should be involved.

(1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai are my picks here, as Young Endless could well need the run.

Race 2 @ 5.00...Palmar Bay won three of ten on the Flat at Classes 2/3, including finishing third on his last run of the season at Haydock in mid-October. He then went really well on his A/W debut when second of seven just half a length down at Lingfield and now drops in class for a first run on Tapeta. Lattaash comes here off the back of finishing 3rd of 12 in a Class 4 handicap at Newcastle and then winning well in a Novice race at Wolverhampton, both off today's mark of 83. he has made the frame in 5 of 6 starts to date, all on the A/W and I can see that becoming six from seven.

Billy Mill has finished in the first four home in each of his last seven efforts on the A/W over the last year (3113343) and had two good runs at Ascot in July. Wasn't at his best at Goodwood and Sandown in subsequent efforts, but now down in class and away from the grass, could show himself in a better light if he's not rusty following a 16-week break. Perennial is a lightly raced 4yr old with potential and makes just a fifth start today. He finished 153 in three runs on the Flat for Ed Walker in the summer before a 4-month break and a change of yard was followed by am A/W debut three weeks ago. He ran better than 5th of 7 would suggest, as he took a while to get going and possibly found Chelmsford's 6f a little too quick, as many have in the past. he's had the benefit of a run and steps up in trip on a slightly slower surface and could well improve here.

(1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & a chance taken on (8) Perennial taken here.

Race 3 @ 5.30...Coul Angel was slowly away on his debut here over 5f a fortnight ago, but was flying once he got going and managed 4th of 10, beaten by less than a length and a half and missing a place by just a head. He should come on for the run and the extra furlong could be handy for him. Macedonian was a good second of fifteen on debut at Newmarket in August and followed that up with a 4th of 12 at Kempton on A/W debut a month later. Both runs came over today's trip and this one has been gelded during his four-week break.

Rebel's Gamble is an interesting debutant representing the trainer and jockey who won this race last year. He was deemed worthy of a 135,000 Gns price tag as a yearling and his brother Nahaar won 6 of 14 at 6/7f, whilst his half-brother Gleneagle Bay finished 15222 in his five races last year, going down narrowly in his last two valuable races. Stardancer was a modest 6th of 11 on debut at Newmarket in early November, but made an good A/W debut a fortnight ago, when 2nd of 9 over today's course and distance, beaten only by an 8/13 fav. A similar run here puts him right in the mix and he's every right to improve for his recent experience.

I'll take (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer here.

Race 4 @ 6.00...Brightandbeautiful has finished third and fourth in her two A/W starts to date, both over today's 7f trip, including a third over course and distance in mid-November. She probably wants further than this, but she's running well and this looks a poor race. Whizz By is the only runner in the field with a win to their name and she comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of C&D handicap wins here in October/November. She went up 7lbs for her first win and is up another 5lbs, but I think she still has the potential to improve further and should be the one to beat here.

Empowered Queen has gone pretty well in her three handicap starts to date without ripping too many trees up, finishing 454 in 11/12-runner contests over 6/7f on Tapeta. She was beaten by little more than half a length here at Southwell over 6f last time out, staying on, so the move back to 7f could help. Bantz comes from a yard in decent form and with a good track record here and he was a little unlucky last time out, when initially denied a clear run over 6f at Newcastle before being switched out resulting in his heels being clipped a furlong from home effectively ending his race as he was eased down. An extra furlong and a clearer passage could see a different outcome here.

Bantz misses out, though, as I'm going with (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen from this one.

Race 5 @ 6.30...Style Of Life has obvious ability, as demonstrated by her 25122 finishes in September/October, but she has failed to shine in two runs on Tapeta since and needs to bounce back. She has been eased a pound in the ratings, but remains 5lbs higher than her last win, but is now 1lb lower than her Wolverhampton runner-up effort in October. Rapido Girl is 322 from her three A/W runs to date over 6/7f on Tapeta in the last seven weeks and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the 5/2 fav at Newcastle last time out. No reason why she can't/won't place again here.

Bella Kopella hasn't raced over today's trip in any of her last 14 starts over a similar amount of months, but her record on the A/W at this trip reads 212131 and considering she has been consistently outpaced over shorter trips of late, the step back up in trip is both interesting and logical. She should be well prepared as she has been kept quite busy over the last year. Starsong lost her way a little after finishes of 17332 (beaten by a head over C&D in the last of those five) in the first quarter of 2024, but she took advantage of a falling handicap mark to make the frame at Lingfield 12 days ago, beaten by just half a length as a runner-up and was half a length in front of third-placed Ravensbourne who was a 25/1 placer mentioned on this column yesterday.

Style of Life looks the weaker of the four, so I'll go with (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong here.

Race 6 @ 7.00...A poor-looking race to finish on, where only three horses make any appeal to me at all, so my 1-2-3 pretty much picks itself...

Autumn Angel has steadily improved on Tapeta over the last six weeks finishing 4321 with decreasing margins of defeat prior to a near-two length win over today's trip at Wolverhampton four days ago. This run of form means she now carries 5lbs more than the rest of the field, but she's clearly the form horse here.

Bernie The Bear was the runner-up in that race on Monday, staying on strongly and with the weight pull in his favour, he could be the main threat/challenge to Autumn Angel's hopes of doubling up. If not, he's always a viable place prospect after making the frame in 8 of 12 over 6f on the A/W.

Piperstown was third in back to back races (here at Southwell and then at Lingfield) in August/September and won here over 5f two starts ago, but failed to shine on New Year's Day when he never really got going in a Newcastle 5f sprint. The step up in trip might help and he could well bounce back, but I doubt he's beating either of the other two.

Piperstown looks a fair way below the other pair, so I'll just take (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear from this one.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: ((1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai

Leg 2: (1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & (8) Perennial

Leg 3: (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer

Leg 4: (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen

Leg 5: (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong

Leg 6: (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone.
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25

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Thursday's racing comes from Ayr, Huntingdon & Newcastle
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

Let's follow the money and head to Newcastle for six contests on standard tapeta starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.52...Come On John has finished 13222 in his last five, all on Tapeta and has only gone down by a head, 0.75 lengths and ahead in his last three and looks like the one to beat here on form. even if he is up 2lbs today. Fifty Sent runs for the first time since May, when losing by a nose on the nod and he made the frame here four starts ago and could be of interest on his yard debut for Sam England.

Inspiring Speeches might be winless after 15 starts, but did show some promise in handicaps during 2024, finishing 23522 in a five-race block in August/September. He'll need to improve upon a 4 length defeat last time out, but he's down in weight here. Jujubella is another maiden, having failed to land any of her seven races to date, but since coming racing in the UK, has finished 434, all here at Newcastle over a mile. She was doing her best work late on each time, so the step up to 1m2f might just be the ticket.

This race is there to be won/lost for (2) Come On John, but I'll take (5) Inspiring Speeches & (8) Jujubella as backups.

Leg 2 @ 2.27...Bond Spirit is running pretty well right now, making the first four home in each of his last three starts over 1m4f-1m6f at Wolverhampton, all off a mark of 48. He has been eased a pound in the ratings and if holding his form, should be involved once more today. Busby ended a bit of a lean spell by winning at Southwell over 1m4f a fortnight ago, making all in what was his first run in a visor giving him an 11th career A/W win from 57 starts and with a 42% place strike rate on the A/W is usually a safe placepot pick.

Rubellite has finished 2344 on the tapeta in her last four starts off today's mark and whilst he doesn't win very often, he's usually very much involved in proceedings and there no reason why she can't make the frame today. The 12yo veteran Visitant is another who is often there or thereabouts, despite now being on a winless run of eighteen starts. His recent form has seen him make the frame in four of his last seven and was a half-length runner-up here over 1m2f in August and was also third here over course and distance just three weeks ago on his last run.

It's a modest-looking affair here, from which I'll take (3) Busby, (7) Rubellite & (9) Visitant for my bet builder.

Leg 3 @ 3.02...Lahab hasn't raced too often over today's trip of late, but was a course and distance runner-up last January off a mark 15lbs higher than today and was a runner-up again here (over 7f) two starts ago when only beaten inside the last furlong, so whilst not an obvious candidate could be dangerous off this current mark. Brazilian Rose is an interesting/unexposed type with just five (4 on A/W) starts to date. She won over 7f on debut at Lingfield in August and was third over today's trip on the tapeta at Wolverhampton in September. 5f here was probably too sharp for her, as she went down by just over 2.5 lengths, but the step back up to 6f might suit her.

Spartan Fighter went down by a couple of lengths over track/trip on his latest run, but was third at Chelmsford last month and a course and distance winner here back in October and is a danger here now returned to the same mark as that win. Noble Consort is, however, probably the one to beat despite a 5lb rise in the weights for a made-all course and distance win here just over a fortnight ago after a couple of decent efforts on the tapeta at both Southwell and Wolverhampton. He was a length and three quarters clear here last time out and wasn't really challenged, so could/should have more to give.

Of the four, Lahab is the least likely in my mind, leaving me with (2) Brazilian Rose, (4) Spartan Fighter & (6) Noble Consort.

Leg 4 @ 3.32...Tomorrow Day was in my overnight 1-2-3, but now doesn't run but there are still others to look at from a place perspective at worst, starting with Jimmy Knocker, a lightly raced 94 starts) 4 yr old, who fared well enough on his first crack at 6f in what was a handicap debut at Southwell a fortnight ago. He was, unfortunately, slow away and had to play catch up, but stayed on well in what ended up being a four-length defeat and he should come on for the experience. Yoshimi on the other hand, has 48 races under his belt with a healthy (for this level) 8 wins to his name. He has been better at 7f, but dropped back to today's trip last time out when beaten by three lengths at Wolverhampton and a better start sees him closer today off 1lb lower.

Oriental Prince comes here on a hat-trick, having won his last two, bother here at Newcastle over 5f, the most recent of which was yesterday and he carries no penalty for that success. He tends to stay on well enough, so the step back up to 6f (C&D runner-up in October) shouldn't be an issue. Hurstwood is the only other runner with a win in their recent form lines, but closer inspection shows that only 1 of his 9 career wins have been on the A/W and from 20 efforts, 19 of which have been here at Newcastle.

That said, he has a win and four further places from 17 starts over 6f/7f here, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he makes the frame again today, but I prefer (1) Jimmy Knocker, (2) Yoshimi & (5) Oriental Prince here.

Leg 5 @ 4.05...Encircle ran just once for Simon Crisford the best part of a year ago, but showed promise finishing as a one-length runner-up to stable mate Miss Bielsa at Wolverhampton. She now comes back from 342 days off the track to make a yard debut for Rebecca Menzies and will have the very useful 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser in the saddle. Heavenly Heather was a runner-up here at this class/trip two starts ago, but faded late on when stepped up in class and trip last time out. She's now back down to Class 5 and back at 7f and should put up a better show than LTO.

General Admission was popular Kempton on debut in October, when sent sent off as the 3/1 second favourite and the market support was justified as he was only beaten by the 13/8 fav Yankee Dude who ran him out of it late on to win by 1.75 lengths. The run by General Admission probably sets the benchmark here and a similar effort should take this race. The third placed horse was a head behind him and he won a 16-runner maiden next time out. Lord Capulet is a half-brother to dual Group 1 winner Rosallion and whilst I'm not suggesting he's going to be that good, it is worth noting. He has raced just once to date and faded away at Redcar on soft ground back in November. This surface should be a little easier to run on, he should come on for the run and it's hard to ignore his breeding.

On results alone, I have to take (4) Encircle and (7) General Admission, but I'm also going to take a chance on the potential of (10) Lord Capulet. I've a feeling that Encircle might well go off at a big price and might well be worth a small (and I mean small!) E/W punt.

Leg 6 @ 4.40...Streak Lightning has finished third in each of his last two starts, both here over course and distance last month and he runs off the same mark as when scoring over track/trip back in September. Finn Ironside had a decent second half to 2024 finishing 213434 in his last six outings. The final two runs in that sequence were over today's course and distance, beaten by 2.5 and 3 lengths respectively. A slight 1lb drop in weight might help slightly and he should be there or thereabouts today.

Angel Of Antrim looks the one to beat, though, based on her last two efforts; a pair of 5-length wins over course and distance five and twelve days ago. Another similar effort should easily be enough here and she's 6lb well in under a penalty. Ravensbourne completes my shortlist despite being a 14-race (10 on A/W) maiden for four different trainers. Her current mark of 53 (down from70 a year ago) is probably more suitable for her and she comes here off the back of a pair of third placed finishes at Lingfield, the best of which was a one-length defeat 11 days ago on her latest yard debut off today's mark.

(6) Angel Of Antrim is my clear pick here and I've little to separate the other trio if truth be told, but I'll take (4) Streak Lightning and (5) Finn Ironside for backup.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Come On John, (5) Inspiring Speeches & (8) Jujubella

Leg 2: (3) Busby, (7) Rubellite & (9) Visitant

Leg 3: (2) Brazilian Rose, (4) Spartan Fighter & (6) Noble Consort

Leg 4: (1) Jimmy Knocker, (2) Yoshimi & (5) Oriental Prince

Leg 5: (4) Encircle, (7) General Admission & (10) Lord Capulet

Leg 6: (4) Streak Lightning, (5) Finn Ironside & (6) Angel Of Antrim

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck everybody!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Lingfield, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Warwick.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Lingfield...

I'm not over keen on the Lingfield A/W card, so we'll stay on the jumps, from which the Uttoxeter card looks the better quality. So we'll take in six races from there on good to soft ground, starting off with...

Race 1 @ 12.30...Andy Amo has made a reasonable start to hurdling life, finishing 2nd of 10 and 4th of 12, both at Ffos Las and the way he stayed over 2m6f on debut suggests that the extra distance here might suit him, as might slightly quicker ground than LTO. Grand Geste didn't rip up any trees in two bumpers and had a couple of indifferent efforts over hurdles before the penny started to drop and he has been 2nd of 14, beaten by half a length over 2m4f and a staying on 3rd of 10 over 3m since. That was four weeks ago at Haydock and a similar run makes him dangerous here.

Pike Road has only tackled hurdles once, but stayed on to finish 2nd of 12 over 3m on that debut run and could well improve for having had the run. A similar effort in a poor looking race could put him in the frame again, but the one to beat here is possibly/probably Star Of Diamonds who won a 3m Irish PTP at Quakerstown nine months ago and didn't run again until his debut under Rules at Haydock four weeks ago, where he ended up 4th of 10 over 3m½f on soft ground, losing two places late on (finishing a head behind Grand Geste) and he'd be entitled to come on for the run.

Of these four, I like Andy Amo least, so I'll go with (3) Grand Geste, (4) Pike Road & (6) Star Of Diamonds in the opener.

Race 2 @ 1.00...Benassi has been a bit of a mixed bag so far in nine starts over hurdles, making the frame in six of them, including two wins, but also failing to complete twice and a 40 length defeat. On the evidence of his last run, though, when second of nine at Leicester, it's hard to ignore his claims. I just hope he's on a good day. El Granjero hasn't quite hit the levels of last season where he was 22211 over hurdles and he doesn't seem to have seen 2m6f/2m7f out in both starts this term. He's down in the weights to just 4lbs higher than his last, wears cheekpieces for the first time and the drop in trip should also help a horse with clear ability at this level.

Fresh Speculation got off the mark at the seventh attempt over hurdles at Ffos Las last month over this trip, but he had made the frame in four of his previous five starts so he's progressing nicely. This is tougher up in class and weight, but he's going the right direction. Haarar had a spell where he finished 2211 over hurdles earlier this year and shrpened up for the winter by wining over 1m6f at Redcar on the flat in early November and followed that up with a runner-up finish at Haydock four weeks ago despite being badly hampered by a loose horse.

On any given day, I'd be more than happy to put any of these forward as a potential placer, but I only want to take three and El Granjero will miss out based on recent form, even though the potential is there, leaving me with (2) Benassi, (6) Fresh Speculation & (7) Haarar.

Race 3 @ 1.30...Ithaka was a winner at Market Rasen two starts ago, having made the frame in his two previous starts. 3m1½f at Catterick off a higher mark probably over stretched him last time, so the drop back to 3m could help him back into the frame at what might be a nice price. Just Chasing May won here over 2m4f back in mid-June prior to a break of over four months. Since returning in late October, he has made the frame in all three starts and was third of eight over 2m7f on soft ground last time out and should go well again off the same mark.

Twp Stori is 321251 over hurdles in 2024 with the worst result being a reasonable 5th of 14 here at Uttoxeter over an inadequately short 2m after a break of nearly six months, which he used as a stepping stone to a win over 2m7f on soft ground at Lingfield last time out and a 5lb rise might stop stop him being involved again. All Under Control has taken a while to get going over hurdles, failing to even make the frame in any of her first six starts with only one (10 length) defeat of less than 37 lengths! She then somehow put all that behind her as she battled gamely to win by half a length at Fontwell three weeks ago. This tougher and she's up in weight and trip.

I'm not sure that All Under Control can go well twice in a row based on her previous runs, so I'm going with (5) Ithaka (who might be a nice E/W bet with bookies paying four places), (6) Just Chasing May & (9) Twp Stori here.

Race 4 @ 2.00...Eaton Anne finished 322 in his first three efforts over hurdles but was a very disappointing last of four beaten by 25 lengths at Plumpton on his last start when sent off as the Evens favourite on his handicap debut. It's too soon to write him off based on his three previous runs and he has had a wind op since that last run. Port Or Starboard has made the frame in 12 of 22 career starts, which is what you want from a placepot pick and his form in 2023 read 621333233 before he took a year off. His first run of 2024 was three weeks ago here at Uttoxeter when not disgraced in a 9 length defeat. He's entitled to come on for the run and is now rated at 3lbs lower than his last win and 5lbs lower than this time last year.

Dickens made his own seasonal reappearance after an even longer break of 530 days to finish a very creditable 5th of 14 at Chepstow three months ago travelling strongly for much of the contest he was only eventually beaten by just over five lengths and he too should benefit for the outing. Oneforthefairgreen was second of eight at Leicester six weeks ago, beaten by just over two lengths off the back of a five month break, but didn't seem suited by the step up to 2m2½f at Exeter last time out and now reverts back to 2m, whilst wearing a visor for the first time.

I don't think there's much between the four I've shortlisted, but I need to omit one and the unlucky horse is going to be Dickens, leaving me with (2) Eaton Anne, (4) Port or Starboard & (9) Oneforthefairgreen.

Race 5 @ 2.30...Grove Road is proving to be a better hurdler than we was over fences, finishing 114 in his last three, although that last effort wasn't great whe he faded from contention in the final quarter mile on his way to a 33 length defeat as 4th of 10. That said, he's now 5lbs lower, 2½f back in trip and was going well prior to LTO, so he might not be out of this completely, if he can transfer some of that recent form back to the bigger obstacles. Jessie Lightfoot has had a good year over fences so far, finishing in the frame in seven (two wins) of her ten starts. I'm happy to overlok her latest effort when racing from out of the handicap at Class 3 and the drop back to Class 5 should show her in a better light.

Ali Star Bert gets good to soft or softer ground, gets 2m7f to 3m3f readily and has three wins and four runner-up finishes from his last eleven starts. He's a former course and distance winner, who runs off the same mark as his last win and had been the runner-up in two of his last three. The only potential fly in the ointment is that he has failed to complete the race in three of those four unplaced runs in his last eleven starts, which is why he might be a double-digit price at the off. Croagh Patrick has plenty of experience under his belt and has made the frame in 16 of 34 over fences and comes here off the back of a runner-up finish and a win at Carlisle already this month, both at 3m2f and both on soft ground. He's up 8lbs for that recent win, but the drop back in trip and the slightly easier ground should both help him remain in contention.

My main concern from the four-runner shortlist is that Grove Road hasn't got a great record over fences, so I'll set him aside and take (5) Jessie Lightfoot, (6) Ali Star Bert & (10) Croagh Patrick.

Race 6 @ 3.05...I'm Ravenous finished 231 in his last three over hurdles prior to making all on both his handicap and chase debut where he hung on well to win by half a length. He followed that up by finishing second at Doncaster next/last time out and should be in the mix once more. Knockanore comes here off the back of two good runs where he was second of ten over 2m5f at Southwell before winning here by sixteen lengths over course and distance eleven days ago and although considerably up in weight does look the one to beat today.

Accidental Legend is interesting on chase debut, having made the frame in 8 of 17 over hurdles, winning five times. He looked like he needed the run three weeks ago when 6th of 8 here over 2m7½f, but his prior form had read 12221 and if taking to fences could go well here, although an opening mark of 113 is 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win and leaves little room for error. Lime Drop, on the other hand has nine chases under her belt, mainly in small fields and running to a consistent level finishing 223225213. She won here over 2m two starts ago, but now steps back up to 2m4f.

In card order, I really want (1) I'm Ravenous & (3) Knockanore on my tickets, but it's then a choice between the other pair and I think I might just marginally prefer the consistency of Lime Drop over the inexperience of Accidental Legend, but I think I'll leave both out.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Grand Geste, (4) Pike Road & (6) Star Of Diamonds

Leg 2: (2) Benassi, (6) Fresh Speculation & (7) Haarar

Leg 3: (5) Ithaka, (6) Just Chasing May & (9) Twp Stori

Leg 4: (2) Eaton Anne, (4) Port or Starboard & (9) Oneforthefairgreen

Leg 5: (5) Jessie Lightfoot, (6) Ali Star Bert & (10) Croagh Patrick

Leg 6: (1) I'm Ravenous & (3) Knockanore

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

And that's Tix Picks done for 2024, I'll be back with you all on Thursday with the first column of 2025.

Wishing you all a very Happy New Year!

Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24

/in /by

Monday's racing comes from Haydock, Taunton & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Haydock...

The biggest guarantee is at Haydock, where the ground is unsurprisingly soft/heavy after the amount of rain we've had in the North West, so we'll tread carefully for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Tiger Jet is a former course and distance winner who returns from a three month break, but that's not a real concern, as he won at Cartmel on heavy ground in August after more than five months off. City Derby won four times in the summer, including three times on soft ground and although not in the same form of late, could be involved down in weight and back on slower ground.

Bushypark probably needed the run when pulled up last time out, but returns to a venue where he is 2 from over C&D and has also won at 2m7f.
Shaped as though he needed his reappearance run and he has an excellent record here. Lady In The Park returns to hurdling, where she is 31225, having struggled over fences this year. She runs off the same mark as a runner-up finish at Ayr in March and could/should go well here and has won on soft ground.

Schalke seemed to have stalled with a series of poor efforts for his former trainer, but a switch of yard has seen him make the frame in both starts for his new handlers, finishing third and then second at Bangor, both on soft ground. He's still 6lbs below his last winning mark from two years ago and it could well be his turn today.

I'll take (3) City Derby, (5) Lady In The Park & (6) Schalke from this one.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...This initially looks like a two-horse race between the top two on the card/weights.

(1) Glynn Brae won a 2m soft ground bumper on debut and then a 2m½f heavy ground hurdle before struggling at Aintree last month when fading badly late on over 2m4f on good ground. Slower ground and a shorter trip should be beneficial to him today. (2) Indeevar Bleu has also won two of his career starts and also won a 2m soft ground bumper on debut. Since that win he has raced just twice in over 21 months, but came back from 393 days off to win comfortably over 1m7½f on heavy ground at Leicester four weeks ago at this grade.

(3) Desert Halo is probably the best of the rest and although he was an 80/1 runner-up last time out, he's still a maiden after five starts and steps up in trip here, so I'll just stick with the top two on the card.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Idalko Bihoue was a seven length winner on his second effort over fences when scoring at Cheltenham at this class/trip in October of 2023. he hasn't quite been art the same level in three runs since, but was 5th of 12 in a Grade 2 back at HQ in April but does drop in class here and is now only 3lbs higher than that last win. Classic Maestro has only failed to finish in the first two on two occasions from twelve starts, winning six times. He has already comfortably won three races this month, making all and looks the one to beat.

The Flier Begley needs to bounce back from a couple of indifferent efforts since landing back to back handicap in October at Warwick & Carlisle. He's down a couple of pounds here, so only 3lbs higher than his last win and could be a place contender. Trac probably needed the run after seven months off when last home of six at Kelso last month. The good to soft ground might also have been a little 'quick' for him too, as he was 214411 on soft/heavy last season after another modest comeback effort, so if this season goes the same way, he should be involved.

I'm least keen on The Flier Begley from my shortlist, so I'm going with (1) Idalko Bihoue, (2) Classic Maestro & (6) Trac here.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Last year's runner-up Gold Emery was on my overnight four-runner shortlist, but he was withdrawn this morning, taking me down to the following three...

Galassian makes a chase debut after progressing nicely over hurdles culminating in a soft ground win at Bangor earlier this month. he might not have tackled a fence under Rules but has won a 3m PTP race. Wal Bucks has already had three cracks at the bigger obstacles, improving each time from 6th of 9 (11 lengths down) on debut in May to 3rd of 12 (4.5L) at Ayr last month to 2nd of 10 beaten by just a neck at Wetherby earlier this month over this trip on soft ground and a similar run puts him right in the mix.

Cream Of The West was 3121 over hurdles on soft/heavy ground in his first four starts last season and was a respectable 6th of 14 on chase debut at Hexham 19 days ago, considering the 2m4f was probably too short for him and also that he'd not raced for over eight months. Up in trip and with the benefit of a run, he could/should be involved here.

He's the weaker option of the three and he'd have been behind Gold Emery in my thoughts, too, so I'll just go with (2) Galassian & (5) Wal Bucks here.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...Smart Decision was a comfortable winner at 5/1 on his debut at Doncaster a month ago when staying on well under today's jockey. He seemed to have plenty left in the tank and on that run could be the one to beat, but Eagles Reprieve also won on debut recently, albeit a junior bumper at Wetherby, when sent off at 10/1 on soft ground.

The above pair are the two I'd want from those with a run under their belts as L'Air Du Large was last home of four on a bumper despite being the 7/4 fav and Mystical Martika was only 5th of 9, sixteen lengths down on her bumper run at Wetherby recently.

Of the pair yet to race, the interesting one has to be Itstonitejosephine. We've got the de Boinville/Henderson partnership with a filly by Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs out of an unraced dam related to dual Grade 1 hurdle winner L'Ami Serge and when you put all of that together, she's difficult to ignore.

I'll take three here ie (2) Smart Decision, (3) Eagles Reprieve & (6) Itstonitejosephine.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The Big Breakaway isn't the horse of two seasons ago when a decent Class 1/2 handicapper, but was second of ten at Ascot last time out and whilst beaten by some 31 lengths, was himself 20 lengths clear of the third placed horse and he's down two pounds here. Gaboriot has made the frame in 10 of 16 over fences, winning five times at trips of 3m to 4m½f and he's 4 from 5 beyond 3m. Things didn't go to plan last time out when a bad mistake and getting hampered later on contributed to him being 6th of 14, but the step up in trip should suit.

Montgomery won three on the bounce on soft/heavy ground last spring and although probably needing the run after 231 days off, was only beaten by six lengths last time out and his yard have won this race in three of the last seven renewals, including last season. The Two Amigos won the Welsh Grand National just over two years ago, but has only raced twice since. He was 7th of 17 in the Midlands National in March 2023 before a 627-day absence. he returned to action here at Haydock four weeks ago and went well for some way before weakening badly and was pulled up before the last.

Fantastikas was a 19-length third in this race last year off a mark 4lbs higher than today and he comes here off the back of a decent 3rd of 9 over 3m at Uttoxeter three weeks ago. Of this quintet, I'm going to put (2) Gaboriot, (3) Montgomery & (5) Fantastikas on my Tix bet builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) City Derby, (5) Lady In The Park & (6) Schalke

Leg 2: (1) Glynn Brae & (2) Indeevar Bleu

Leg 3: (1) Idalko Bihoue, (2) Classic Maestro & (6) Trac

Leg 4: (2) Galassian & (5) Wal Bucks

Leg 5: (2) Smart Decision, (3) Eagles Reprieve & (6) Itstonitejosephine

Leg 6: (2) Gaboriot, (3) Montgomery & (5) Fantastikas

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/12/24

/in /by

Saturday's racing comes from Catterick, Leicester, Leopardstown, Limerick, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

...and with so much money at stake at Newbury, I really should make that my focus today for six races on good to soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...Spring Note is two from over this track/trip over here including a win in this race last year and has also scored at 2m3f here, but was pulled up before the last here four weeks ago on her seasonal bow. Should come on for the run and the drop back to a favoured trip and down in class. Break My Soul is one of those ideal placepot types with six places from her seven starts to date. Was beaten by just a nose at a higher grade at Ascot two starts ago and jockey bookings suggest she's the yard no. 1 ahead of Spring Note above. First time hood today too.

Panic Attack went really well at Ludlow earlier this month, finishing third on yard debut for Dan Skelton in a Class 2 handicap, despite coming off a break of over 21 months, going down by just over two lengths staying on. Down in class, she could go well here if feeling no ill effects from the comeback run. Sunset Marquesa is lightly raced, but won a Class 4 bumper on debut and made the frame in three Listed bumpers. Was a runner-up on hurdles debut after an eight month break and then won by 11 lengths at Uttoxeter next/last time out. Up in class here, but shows promise and a mark of 114 isn't punitive.

Tour Ovalie has three wins and three places from her eight handicap starts and is 311 this season. She's down in class here, but up another 6lbs for her latest run/win. That said she's still only 13lbs higher than her opening mark from March, so she might not yet be in the handicapper's grip.

All five are more than capable of winning/placing here, but I'm going with (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie.

Leg 2 @ 12.37...Koapey has knocked on the door on both starts to date, finishing as runner-up in a bumper and in a 2m hurdle, both at Ffos Las and he travelled well in both races. The winner of the hurdle contest has made the frame again since, so today could be Koapey's day. La Marquise might however be the one to beat here. She won two of three bumpers before finishing third in a grade 2 one at the Aintree Festival this year. She then took 196 days off but came back in late October to win on her hurdles debut despite being badly hampered and she should come on for the experience.

Wotter Trotter has just one run to date, but showed signs of potential/promise when only beaten by 4.5 lengths on debut at Huntingdon three weeks ago. His jumping was decent enough and he finished well to come home fourth of the ten runners. Bottom weight Star Time gets chunks of weight all round as this 3yo makes a hurdling debut off the back of two Flat wins over 1m2f and 1m4f. This form should help scoot between hurdles, so it's just a case of how he jumps. He's worth considering at what should be a decent price.

(4) Koapey and (8) La Marquise seem to pick themselves, so I think I'll take (11) Star Time as the backup for a bit of value.

Leg 3 @ 1.12...Skycutter is 221 since returning from a 207-day break in early November and beat the re-opposing The Good Doctor by a length and a half last time out. he's up 5lbs for that win but is going really well right now, whilst the runner-up, The Good Doctor, was a further 15 lengths clear of the pack that day on what was his first run for over seven months and was his chase debut. There's more to come from this one and he's 3lbs better off with Skycutter today.

No Risk With Lou has a win and a place from three starts since being fitted with a hood and being ridden more patiently. This former front-runner has been held up in rear on those three races but there's a danger of him getting left adrift here with four of his rivals usually happy to crack on. The Famous Five won a pair of Class 4 handicaps at the end of last season before a 252 day break. He was 7th of 13 at Class 1 on his return and not disgraced in a 12 length defeat and the horses in 9th, 11th and 12th that day have all raced and won since, including Ooh Betty (12th) who scored as recently as yesterday in a race we covered.

(1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five would be my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Go To War looks the yard pick of the two Nicky Henderson runners and he has finished 3112 in his last four starts, going down by just over four lengths at Huntingdon last time out on his return from more than eight months of the track, so he should be ready for this. Mr Bramley was the runner-up in the last two of three bumper runs and has made the frame in all four starts over hurdles, finishing 1131 and was a ready 6.5 length winner at Wetherby a month ago despite just coming back from seven months off.

Mr Hope Street is also in great form with a last five form line reading 11211 with wins at 2m4f to 3m and the defeat was by just half a length on his return from five months off. A mark of 124 is an 8lb rise, but that might not anchor him just yet. Getalead has finished 11815 so far this term and 1115 under today's jockey, 7lb claimer Gearoid Harney. He weakened quite badly off this mark last time out and it may be that he's either in the assessor's hands or he just needs a bit of a break as this will be a sixth race in nine weeks.

I'll leave Getalead out, despite his obvious ability and stick with the more in-form trio of (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street.

Leg 5 @ 2.20...Surrey Quest is rated some 11lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ended last season by getting beaten on the nod in the Class 1 Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. He was then rested for seven months before coming back to achieve another Class 1 runner-up spot, this time at Cheltenham over a trip similar to this one. A good run is expected, but a mark of 139 leaves little room for error. Henry's Friend won at this meeting last year before going on to win at Class 3 and Grade 2 on his next two outings. Hasn't been the same in his two runs this season so far, but battled hard in a 7.5 length defeat over course and distance in the Class 1 Coral Gold Cup last time out and now drops in class.

Brave Kingdom is lightly raced, but is solidly if unspectacularly consistent. He won his sole bumper way back in February 2021 and then finished 131 in his three efforts over hurdles, all inside the last eight weeks of 2021. He was then off track for almost 23 months before winning on chase debut at Plumpton in November of last year. he won again next time out a month later, but was pulled up on his last start in a Grade 2 at Ascot and is of obvious interest with an overall 5 from 7 record and a history of running well after a break. Inch House clearly has potential as results of 4313112 from his first seven starts would show, culminating in a Class runner-up finish last New Year's Day at Cheltenham. Conversely, he ran poorly in two subsequent runs last season and was pulled up here at Newbury last time out on his seasonal reappearance/yard debut. Cheekpieces are applied today and we'll wonder which Inch House turns up.

Hoe Joly Smoke made the frame in the four of the five hurdle races he completed, but didn't manage to win any (23P32) and was a runner-up on chase debut at Uttoxeter in mid-October before going on to break his duck with a soft ground win over 3m½f at Sandown three weeks ago. He's up 7lbs for that win, but still lurks dangerously down near the foot of the weights (gets 12lbs off Surrey Quest for example) and probably/hopefully has more to give.

Surrey Quest's weight means I'll reluctantly omit him from my bet builder and Inch House's inconsistency rules him out for me, leaving me with (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke for this one.

Leg 6 @ 2.55...Bill Joyce has proven tough to beat so far, aside from a poor run in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He had won both his previous bumpers quite comfortably and was was rested for eight months after the defeat. Since then he is two from two over hurdles and landed a Grade 2 at Sandown three weeks ago. Regent's Stroll has yet to taste defeat, winning two bumpers and his hurdles debut. That last run was here at Newbury a month ago where he defied a bad mistake two out to win by almost ten lengths. Significantly up in class and trip here, but the potential is clear to see.

The New Lion also has a similar three from three record after winning a bumper in April and hurdles successes over 2m4f at Chepstow two months ago and here over course and distance a month back. This trip clearly holds no threat to him, but like Regent's Stroll, he also faces a step up in class. Any of the three could win this and they'll probably head the market too, so I'm going to take all three ie (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion in a safety-first approach and if you asked me for a winner, I'd probably go with Bill Joyce, who has won a Grade 2 over a similar trip and who'll probably offer most value.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie

Leg 2: (4) Koapey, (8) La Marquise & (11) Star Time

Leg 3: (1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five

Leg 4: (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street

Leg 5: (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke

Leg 6: (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 27/12/24

/in /by

Hi everyone, I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas, we had a quiet (but still enjoyable) one.

Friday's racing comes from Chepstow, Kempton, Leopardstown, Limerick, Wetherby & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £75,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton bettered only by the £100k guaranteed at Chepstow...

I really should tackle one of those bigger pots, so I'll ease myself back into 'work mode' with a trip to Kempton for six races on good to soft ground that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.45...Inappropriate made the frame in six of ten on the Flat, winning twice in his last three efforts before landing a 2m Class 2 race at Newcastle on hurdling debut eight weeks ago and looks like having more to give. Lucky Bere landed two Flat races over 1m4f on heavy ground in France earlier this year and ran well enough to finish second behind a 4/7 fav over this course and distance on his UK/hurdles/yard debut two months ago.

Midnight Rumble had a win and three silvers from his last five starts on the Flat and whilst this is a big step up in trip on hurdle debut, he could still go well for a yard in good form. Nardaran has only raced once to date, finishing third at Saint Cloud on very soft ground. He now makes a UK/hurdles/yard debut for Paul Nicholls who won this race in 2021 and speaks highly of the horse.

Kinetic took a while to get going on hurdles debut at Newbury nine days ago after having won 4 of 20 on the Flat/AW. She made mistakes early and had a lot of ground to make and although only 4th of 9, was doing her better work late on and could improve for the run. Of these five (and in card order), I'm taking (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2 @ 1.20...West Balboa has made the frame in 7 of 11 (4 wins) over hurdles and although well beaten in two Listed races ( 1 hurdle, 1 chase) so far this term, was a decent 3rd of 21 in a Class 1 handicap over this trip at Aintree in April. Della Casa Lunga finished as runner-up in a Listed race here a month ago and the drop in class is sure to help her. She did win over this trip as recently as four starts ago, when over 8 lengths clear at Ludlow.

Royale Margaux is somehow still a maiden after 13 starts ( 9 x chase, 4 x hurdle), but was second at Ascot beaten by just 2.5 lengths on November and then 4th of 12 in a Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (3.75 lengths down) a fortnight ago, so she's definitely in good nick. That Ascot run was not only her best performance to date, but also the only time she has gone beyond 2m5f, so this trip might suit her better. Larchmont Lass finished 24145 over hurdles last season but win on her reappearance at Wincanton in early November and backed that up with a third place on heavy ground at Sandown three weeks ago. Her two wins have been at 2m6f, so she should also relish the extra yardage today.

No actual standouts here for me, but I'll take (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass in card order.

Leg 3 @ 1.55...This really should be a two-horse race between (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino and I'll put both on my bet builder.

Ballyburn has only failed to win once to date and that was when a runner-up in a 24-horse contest on hurdles debut just over a year ago. Since then, he has landed three Grade 1 hurdles and was a 13-length winner on his chase debut at Punchestown five weeks ago when coming back off a 204-day break. Sir Gino is five from five over hurdles so far, winning a pair of Grade 1 contests either side of a 233-day absence in his last two starts. If he takes to fences as he has done to hurdles, he could be a real prospect.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...Edwardstone has made the frame in more than half of his 32 career starts with a very record of 10 wins from 29 over hurdles/fences. He has fallen in two of his last four, but won a Grade 2 at Newbury in February and was only beaten by just over two lengths at that level in November at Cheltenham. Boothill was a Class 2 and a Class 1 handicap winner last season and was a 1.5 length runner-up to Jonbon in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, which is no disgrace of course. He's currently 5lbs higher than his last win, but this looks weaker than his last race.

Martator is in prime form, winning each of his last five and is 2 from 2 this season after returning from a six month break. A big hike in his mark here, but you can't argue with his attitude. Soul Icon struggled at Grade 1 last time out, but had finished as the runner-up in each of his previous five races, including a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest either side of a 112-day break. Not ideal that he's 4lbs out of the handicap here, but should still run his race.

In card order, it's (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator here for me.

Leg 5 @ 3.08...Highstakesplayer finished 3112 in his last four over hurdles and has four wins and a runner-up finish from seven over fences, including a 2 from 2 record over course and distance. Down in class here but needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Newbury last time out. Frero Banbou ended a run of 17 defeats when winning off a falling mark of 127 at Newcastle in a Class 1 handicap over this trip last time out. His previous win in January 2022 was off today's 134, so he might not be weighted out of this and he drops two classes.

Golden Son won here over 2m4f ten months ago, but has failed to shine in three outings since, finishing 6th of 7 and then falling in his final two runs of last season and he was last home of nine (40 lengths down) at Newbury on his seasonal bow. Has ability and is down in class, but not reliable enough yet after just seven starts. Dreaming Blue, however, is definitely going in the right direction. He has made the frame in 7 of 15 chases, winning four times and comes here on a run reading 1131. He's up against better horses here but did win quite comfortably over 3m1½f last time out.

It's going to be (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue for me from this one.

Leg 6 @ 3.38...Valgrand didn't seem at his best when only 10th of 14 (20 lengths down) on handicap debut at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, but having finished 1112 in his other four runs over hurdles (the last two at Grade 2), I'd not be writing him off just yet. Aucunrisque is 331 in his three Class 3 handicap hurdle outings this season and although he's up 4lbs to a mark of 133 has every chance here, especially as he won a Class 1 handicap at Newbury off 138 last year.

Willmount is very lightly raced, but won both of his bumpers in 2023. He then won on hurdles debut after a 250-day absence in November 2023, but was pulled up in a Grade 1 almost a year ago and subsequently fell next/last time out at Cheltenham a fortnight as he reappeared from 349 days off. You'd expect Nicky Henderson to be working on his hurdling and his bumper form shows he has enough ground speed, but he does need to jump better. Ooh Betty didn't show much when 12th of 13 in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but had finished in the first three home in 10 of her previous 11, so she has every right to go well again back down in class. She won a similar event to this on her seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago which was her fifth win in ten starts and she's not out of this.

I can make a case for all four and at the risk of going against the market, I feel that the likely fav Willmount has most to prove over hurdles, so I'm siding with (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2: (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass

Leg 3: (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino

Leg 4: (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator

Leg 5: (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue

Leg 6: (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 21/12/24

/in /by

Sorry, guys! No Tix Picks on Friday, as I spent much of the morning at the emergency dentist, but I'm back now with my final pre-Christmas tilt at the placepot.

Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Hereford, Newcastle, Thurles & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a massive £150,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot...

...and it would be just rude of me not try and take aim at the big pot at Ascot, where the going is set to be good to soft for our six races, kicking off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.40...Thank You Ma'am is still a maiden after 11 starts, but is of interest for Tix Picks, as he has made the frame eight times, including being second home in six of ten over hurdles, which is what has happened in all three starts this season. I suspect he'll be on the premises once more today. Circuit Breaker won on bumper debut and also by 16 lengths on hurdles debut (over 2m5f) at Kempton. 1m7½f was probably far too sharp for him last time out and he's of more interest back up in trip and also down two classes for his hurdling handicap debut.

Just Lucky Sivola won on bumper debut just over a year and in two hurdle contests this season (both last month) was beaten by a neck on his first attempt and then won by a short head next/last time out. An opening mark of 113 for his handicap debut gives him a great chance here. Golden Ambition is in the process of having a good season over hurdles. He was second of ten on his seasonal reappearance and in two runs since, he has won by five lengths over 2m6½f on soft ground and by four lengths over 2m7f on good ground. Trip/going should pose no threat here and another good run is on the cards.

Of these four, (3) Just Lucky Sivola is the one I like best and I'll also take (2) Circuit Breaker and (4) Golden Ambition as the backups.

Leg 2 @ 1.15...I narrowed it down to three last night starting with (in card order!) (4) Kotmask whose chase form this year reads 11F3432 and both runs this season after a six-month break have been here at Ascot finishing third in a Class 1 handicap and ten he was a Class 2 runner-up off today's mark, which puts him right in the mix, as do his past efforts on good to soft and soft ground.

(5) Prince Quali had finished 2211 in his four UK handicap chases (Jan to April this year) before an eight month break. Will have needed the run at Newbury three weeks ago, but still managed to finish third of ten and he should come on for that run. (6) Scarface is trained by Joe Tizzard who won this race last year and looks to have a good chance again this time with a runner who was second of nine in a similar contest at Newbury three weeks ago off today's mark. He has already won Class 1 and Class 2 handicap chases this year and is dangerous off a mark just 5lbs higher than that Class 1 success and he's 4lbs lower than when third of twelve in a Cheltenham Grade 2 contest back in April.

I'm just going to take all three here, but if pushed for a 1-2-3, I'd probably go Scarface - Kotmask - Prince Quali.

Leg 3 @ 1.50...Just four are set to run here and the one I like best would have to be (3) Iroko who is 1522 over fences after a good spell over hurdles where he was 3 from 3 in handicaps and third of fifteen in a Grade 1 race here at Ascot. As for his chasing results, he won at Class 3 on debut and ended last season with a a runner-up finish in another Grade 1 at Aintree (Mildmay). He made a seasonal bow at Haydock four weeks ago, beaten by just half a length at this class/trip and should come on for the run.

Of the other trio, (1) Fil Dor is probably the hardest to back even though he 'won' a Listed race last time out. Truth is that it was a 2-horse affair ran at a dawdle, so it offers no help to us and prior to that run, he had lost eight on the bounce and he's not helped at the weights here either.

(2) Jungle Boogie won his sole bumper by just over 3 lengths and his sole hurdle outing by 30 (yes, 30!) lengths before finishing 1416 over fences. He didn't see 3m2½f when 6th of 11 in the Gr 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup on his last run in March, but had won a Grade 3 at Tramore on New Year's Day. My main concern is that he has been off the track for some time (281 days) now, as has (4) James Du Berlais who was a faller at Punchestown when last seen almost eight months ago. He was, however, second of twenty-four in the Class 1 Topham handicap at the Aintree Festival and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

I wouldn't normally take three runners from a four horse contest, but I'm struggling to split Jungle Boogie and James du Berlais as my backup to Fil Dor, so I'll just take both in a safety first approach.

Leg 4 @ 2.25...Beauport tackles hurdles for the first time since April 2022 when a decent fourth of twenty-one in a Grade 3 at Aintree which followed results of 31312221. He hasn't been as consistent over fences, but has won at Class 2, Class 1 and a Listed race and won by 31 lengths last time out. At what is likely to be a big price, he might be an E/W outsider to consider, as he stays all day.

Strong Leader has made the frame in 9 of 13 starts to date and has won 6 times, including last season's Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle and then a Grade 2 at Newbury next/last time out three weeks ago despite coming off a break of 230 days. Going and trip are no concern here and he'd be my likely winner. The Wallpark is interesting today at the highest level he has raced at, but he comes here off the back of four straight wins, including a Listed race at Galway in August. This will be tougher for him, but you can't knock his form and he did beat a subsequent Grade 2 winner (Beacon Edge) by over nine lengths last time out.

Kateira was almost five lengths behind Beacon Edge in that Grade 2 race (at Wetherby) above, so I suppose that puts her behind The Wallpark here, but she herself has won two of her last three at Class 1 and then a Listed race most recently and with a 70% hurdling place strike rate (5 wins and 2 places from 10), she's an ideal placepot horse and probably a good E/W option to boot.

(7) Strong Leader, (8) The Wallpark & (10) Kateira would by my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...Trelawne won over 2m7½f at Uttoxeter on his last hurdles run (March '23) and then over 2m4f at Carlisle on chase debut 232 days later. Since then he has been a grade 2 runner-up at Wetherby in January and won a 2m5½f handicap at Haydock four weeks ago after a break of 256 days. He likes this softer ground and should come on for his recent run.

Victtorino is only 1lb higher than when winning this race last year and comes here off the back of a good run on his season opener at Newbury. He hasn't been on a track for nine months but was a good 3rd of 13 in a 3m2f Class 1 handicap worth £142k to the winner and he'd be entitled to strip fitter today. Heloy Delabarriere is very interesting on his UK debut despite having gone twelve races without a win, but he has been second or third in seven of them, including two runs at Gr 3 and one at Gr 1 in his last three outings. if he runs to those levels here, he's definitely one to consider, although I'd have liked him to have had a prior UK run.

The Changing Man completes my shortlist of the back of a 1.25 length defeat as a runner-up of thirteen in a 2m7½f Class 1 handicap chase at Newcastle three weeks ago. The bare result and small margin of defeat speak for themselves, but if you consider that the third-placed horse was a further 16 lengths back, you see how well he ran and he'd be a contender here.

I'm going to omit the French raider, as I'd like to see him in the UK and over fences before committing, so I'll take (2) Trelawne, (4) Victtorino and (7) The Changing Man here.

Leg 6 @ 3.35...Be Aware is 12222 in his short career (all over hurdles) so far. he ended last season with a half length defeat in a 20-runner Class 2 handicap at Sandown and was then the runner-up in the 15-runner Class 1 Greatwood handicap at Cheltenham next/last time out after 204 days off the track, but again was only half a length off the winner. Dysart Enos was third in the Greatwood, three lengths behind Be Aware, despite going off as the 85/40 favourite. That defeat, as creditable as it was, was the the first time she'd been beaten after six straight wins to start her career and she's a Listed & Grade 2 winner in bumpers. She's 3lbs better off with be Aware here too.

Kabral Du Mathan steps up in class here, but has won both starts to date, landing a Class 2 contest in mid-January and then a Class 3 on handicap debut four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a ten month break. This might be too strong for him, but the potential is there, as it might well be for Black Hawk Eagle who won on Boxing Day last year and again in late January. His two runs this season have seen him 3rd of 10 at Ffos Las and 2nd of 5 at Huntingdon and whilst this the toughest race he'll have faced, he's in good heart.

Black Hawk Eagle is probably the weaker of the four shortlisted runners, so I'll be putting (3) Be Aware, (7) Dysart Enos and (9) Kabral Du Mathan onto my Tix ticket builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Circuit Breaker, (3) Just Lucky Sivola and (4) Golden Ambition

Leg 2: (4) Kotmask, (5) Prince Quali and (6) Scarface

Leg 3: (2) Jungle Boogie, (3) Iroko and (4) James Du Berlais

Leg 4: (7) Strong Leader, (8) The Wallpark and (10) Kateira

Leg 5: (2) Trelawne, (4) Victtorino and (7) The Changing Man

Leg 6: (3) Be Aware, (7) Dysart Enos and (9) Kabral Du Mathan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone and I hope you all have a fantastic Christmas.
I'll see you on the other side!

Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 19/12/24

/in /by

Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Exeter, Ffos Las & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

...and we'll follow the money to Essex for six races on the standard polytrack at Chelmsford beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10...Blue Lakota seems to have got the hang of things recently, finishing 221 in three handicap starts on the A/W so far after showing very little in three turf novice races. Was more than four lengths clear at Newcastle last time out and should be the one to beat here. Bank On Kent has also been solid in nurseries, although not to the same extent. He's now a 9-race maiden, but has finished in the first three in three of six handicaps and was less than two lengths down when third of seven over course and distance last time out.

Frankies Dream ran better than sixth of seven might suggest at Wolverhampton four weeks ago. Truth is that he was only beaten by a length and a half after a slow start in a tight race. He'll wear a hood today and that will hopefully help him get away a bit sharper. Mister Coco Fizz also ran in that same race at Wolverhampton and also started slowly, but managed to finish as runner-up, beaten by just a short head, just failing to reel the winner in. He started slowly again at Lingfield next/last time out and you just can't get away with that here at Chelmsford. He makes a yard debut in a first-time tongue tie today and hopefully the new handlers will have worked on his starts!

My 1-2 here would be (1) Blue Lakota and (2) Bank On Kent, to which I'll add (6) Mister Coco Fizz

Leg 2 @ 4.40...Preanka was withdrawn early this morning, reducing my over night shortlist to just three runners here. (6) Antalya was a solid third of fourteen on debut here five weeks ago, overcoming a wide draw (stall 12) to grab a place late on. Drawn better today and dropping down a furlong, she should be in the mix again. (10) Sixteen One was unlucky to be touched off by a head at Leicester on debut back in July and didn't seem to stay 7f out at Lingfield three months ago. She had enough about her for the market to deem her as favourite and she's a half-sister to Silent Move who is a 3-time Class 4 winner over 7f/1m.

(12) Sunlit Uplands was also poorly drawn on her only previous run to date when sent off at 8/1 from stall 11 of 11 over this course and distance seven weeks ago. She made steady progress after a shaky start and despite having to switch out late on, still managed to finish second just a short head behind the winner. A similar run probably wins this race today and she'd be my first choice, but I'm taking all three shortlisted runners from this one.

Leg 3 @ 5.10...Brightandbeautiful has been slowly improving and although she was fairly well beaten at Southwell last time out, she did manage to make the frame at 100/1 on a 10-runner contest. She'll go off much shorter here and could well place again today. Crest Of Light put his indifferent maiden/novice form behind him when finishing second of seven over a mile at Southwell on handicap debut nine days ago, going down by just three quarters of a length, having been headed inside the final furlong, so the drop back in trip might just help him go one better.

Thiscouldbefun is still a maiden after 8 starts, but her A/W form reads 363, all in handicaps, one on Tapeta, one on soft ground and then on polytrack last time out when beaten by just over two lengths in a 1m Class 4 handicap at Kempton. A drop in trip and class are positives here and she should be involved. Rotation is one of just two former winners in this field, having won a 6f seller at Leicester in July. His most recent effort same him finish 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton over 6f, doing his best work late on. He was only beaten by two lengths in the end and he'll probably relish the extra furlong here. Chuti Manika was third day and has raced into third again since.

(6) Crest Of Light is my first choice here and although I've little to separate the other three on my notes, I'll also take (2) Brightandbeautiful and (8) Rotation at the expense of Thiscouldbefun here.

Leg 4 @ 5.40...A decent size field (13 runners) for this, which is good to see, but it's surely a two-horse race between (1) Port Light and (2) Rajeko in card order?

Port Light won a Class 5, 1m maiden at Southwell on debut and was more comfortable than the margin of a neck might seem on paper. He carries a penalty for that win, of course and isn't ideally drawn in stall 13 of 13, but the manner of his debut run suggests there's more to come. Rajeko also won on debut, landing a Class 4 Novice race over 6f at Windsor back in June, also staying on to won by a neck. He has failed to make the frame in two starts since, but defeats at Group 2 & 3 aren't that relevant to his chances in a Class 4 Novice, but suffice to say he was only three lengths down in the Gr 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, half a length behind Aomori City who has since won a Group 2 and lost a Group 1 by less than four lengths.

Both of these go on my ticket, of course. Of the others, (4) English Lady is the sole winner, whilst (8) Ravens King has place form.

English Lady overcame a slow start to win a 14-runner maiden here at Chelmsford over 7f on debut five weeks ago and whilst this is a tougher race over further and carrying a penalty, she does at least have experience of winning a race. Ravens King is possibly slightly flattered by the bare result of third of ten runners in a Class 5, 1m maiden at Lingfield on his sole outing 16 days ago. The truth is that he was 11 lengths behind the first two home and only a similar distance clear of the horse back in 9th place. That said, you can only compete against what's in the race with you and he beat 7 of 9 opponents and the runner-up has been a Class 3 runner-up since.

Despite all that, I prefer English Lady as my backup.

Leg 5 @ 6.10...Kessaar Power wasn't great here over course and distance last time out, but had been a runner-up in each of his two previous outings (both here) and was a C&D winner in late October and if setting that last run aside, could well be the one to beat. Kitaro Kich is still a maiden after thirteen attempts, but produced what is probably his best effort to date when fourth of eleven here a fortnight ago. He was bumped early and got carried right in the closing stages but was staying on and could well get closer back up in trip.

Glencalvie won over course and distance back in February and also over this trip at Yarmouth in April and although not in the best of form of late, this looks a fairly poor race. so he's not out of it entirely. Reel Power made good progress in the summer of 2023, winning over a mile at Brighton before finishing second of twelve in a Windsor handicap. He was then off the track for 400 days and looked rusty on his return finishing last of ten back at Brighton over 1m2f in October, but was a very creditable third of ten over a mile at Kempton next/last time out, beaten by just a length and three quarters in a race where the horses placed 1st, 5th and 6th have all raced and won since.

My 1-2 here would be (1) Kessaar Power & (7) Reel Power and I think I marginally prefer (2) Kitaro Kich over Glencalvie. That said, the latter might well go off at a big price and with bookies paying four places here, he could still be a viable E/W bet.

Leg 6 @ 6.40...Bo Taifan won over C&D 7 starts/3 months ago and alonst took advantage of a falling mark when second of ten at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He was headed close to the line and was beaten by just half a length. Dubai Harbour went one better and won at Lingfield last time out, getting home by a neck holding on gamely over 1m2f. he's up 2lbs for that win, but will appreciate the drop back in trip.

Reverberation is the veteran of some 90 previous races but still looks in good nick at 9yo, coming here off the back of finishing 3rd of 13 over 1m2f at this track a week ago in a race he incidentally won last year and whilst not getting any younger, has a win and five places from nine starts this year. Rising Force was 3rd of 12 over C&D in mid-November and backed that up with a C&D win by more than two lengths last time out. He won pulling clear, so there was probably more to come, suggesting that a 5lb rise might not stop him.

Forever Proud completes my shortlist and she has made the frame in 7 of 15 this year so far, winning twice. She faded late on over 1m2f here a fortnight ago, but was 3rd of 11 on her last run over today's trip, whilst her last win came off a mark 2lbs higher than today.

Five to consider, but my 1-2-3 is going to be (6) Rising Force, (2) Dubai Harbour & (5) Reverberation.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Blue Lakota, (2) Bank On Kent & (6) Mister Coco Fizz

Leg 2: (6) Antalya, (10) Sixteen One & (12) Sunlit Uplands

Leg 3: (2) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Crest Of Light & (8) Rotation

Leg 4: (1) Port Light, (2) Rajeko & (4) English Lady

Leg 5: (1) Kessaar Power, (2) Kitaro Kich & (7) Reel Power

Leg 6: (2) Dubai Harbour, (5) Reverberation & (6) Rising Force

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/12/24

/in /by

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Kempton, Lingfield, Ludlow & Newbury.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Newbury, where the ground is expected to be good to soft, so let's head there for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...This really looks like Liam Swagger's race to win/lose. He tuned up for hurdling with seven Flat/AW runs over the summer, making the frame on five occasions before winning a Class 2 hurdle first up at Market Rasen in late September and has since landed a Listed race at Wetherby.

If there's going to be a challenge, it will probably come from Believitanducan on hurdle debut. He finished 322 over 1m6f on the Flat in the summer and then showed he'd get this trip with a win over 2m at Beverley in July, whilst Liam Swagger's stablemate Kinetic is also interesting, receiving weight all round. He had a run of form reading 211141 over 1m4f-1m6f in the summer and he now drops in class for his hurdles debut.

I'll take all three here ie (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Beylerbeyi made the frame in 10 of 22 on the Flat/AW, winning four times, including his last run in that sphere at Wolverhampton in October. Things didn't go to plan after a mistake at the third flight of his hurdle debut at Ascot last month, but he'll come on for having had the run. El Rayo's hurdling debut was a more successful affair, finishing third of eleven at Huntingdon, coming off a nine-month break. He was only a length and a quarter off the winner and the runner-up has made the frame again since.

Roysse looks the one to beat here with three solid runs under his belt. After finishing 4th of 17 on debut in a Wincanton bumper thirteen months ago, he then won a bumper here over course and distance in January before taking nine months off. He reappeared last month to finish second (headed late on the run-in by a horse who was a Listed class runner-up 11 days ago) over today's class, track and trip on hurdle debut and there's probably more to come.

Sergeant Fury will need to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Huntingdon 10 days ago, having finished third in both a bumper and on hurdles debut last month, whilst bottom-weight Mistress Emma finally makes her way back to the track some 903 days after winning a bumper at Worcester on debut. She has been injured but her yard (Nicky Henderson) will have schooled her well for a race they have won four times in the last six years.

(8) Roysse is the standout here, but I'll also take a chance with (3) El Rayo and (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Pretty competitive for a six-runner contest where (tempting fate) only Moulins Clermont seems out of the running.

Kyntara has only tackled fences once, when a distant (24L) second of nine at Hereford just over two years ago and hasn't been on a track since falling (when third) in the Grade 1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree in April. Prior to that, though he'd had a good season over the smaller obstacles finishing 11222. Mt Fugi Park makes a chase debut and just a sixth start. He won a pair of Class 4 hurdles first up last season, but the step up to Class 3 and Grade 2 seemed to find him out somewhat, but he stays and likes the mud.

Wrappedupinmay hasn't been seen for almost 11 months since winning a 3m hurdle at Exeter. He had a wind op in the summer and you can expect Paul Nicholls to have him well tuned up for a chase debut. Herakles Westwood does, however, have the benefit of both a recent run and an effort over fences, as he finished second of five on chase debut at Taunton three weeks ago, beaten by just three lengths over 3m despite coming off a 223-day absence. Should have more to give here.

Kintail has also had a recent chase outing, making his chasing bow after 289 days off, when sighted at Warwick six weeks ago. He was last home of three, beaten by almost nine lengths. He'll come on for the experience and the runner-up has already finished second again before winning at Warwick six days ago.

My 1-2-3 here would be (4) Herakles Westwood, (3) Wrappedupinmay & (5) Kintail

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Racing has little respect for price tickets, but Buckna showed signs of justifying his £350,000 sale when second in a 14-runner hurdle at Ffos Las on his Rules debut four weeks ago. He had moved for big money forllowing a PTP win at Kirkistown (IRE) in March and looks useful so far.

Captain Bellamy won a Class 5 bumper on debut, flopped in a Listed bumper and was then third at Class 2 in march. He took eight months prior to last month's hurdles debut where he was second of five at Class 3 behind Skyjack Hijack who stepped up in class to win next time out. The only fly in the ointment from Captain Bellamy's last run is that he was 26 lengths off the winner, but in fairness was 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

De Kingpin was a heavy ground runner-up on his sole bumper outing in March and then finished a solid third of eight at this grade on hurdles debut at Sandown 252 days later, but didn't run to that level next/last time out despite dropping in class, finishing just 5th of 9 as an odds-on fav. I think he's better than that.

This trio are the ones with any discernible 'form' to their names and pretty much pick themselves, but there's an interesting (to me, anyway) debutant in the shape of Nativehill, who hasn't been seen since landing a PTP at Loughanmore in April 2023. He's a half-brother to the useful Bellshill and Chieftain's Choice, he changed hands for £260k after his PTP win and you know that with Nico de Boinville riding for Nicky Henderson that he'll be asked to give everything and I think I prefer his potential to De Kingpin's last run.

So, its (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill here for me.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post here and I don't much like Harper's Brook, even if he did win a Class 2 chase back in February, so that takes me to four contenders...

General Medrano is possibly the one to beat dropping down in class after a comfortable nine length success in a £26k Class 2 handicap over course and distance less than three weeks ago. he's up 10lbs here, but that shouldn't be enough to stop him. Primoz won the first and last of his four hurdles races and scored on chase debut, landing a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby in mid-October off the back of a six-month break. He possibly found 2m4½f too far at Cheltenham last time out and will appreciate the half mile drop in trip here.

Bourbali has stacks of experience after 28 starts, making the frame in half of them including 6 wins. He's 2 from 8 over fences and won most recently at Kempton, making all of the 2m2f and jumping soundly. He tired over 2m5f at the same venue next/last time out, but managed third of seven and will also appreciate the shorter race here. Javert Allen is interesting on just his six outing. He finished 1222 over hurdles, beaten by just three quarters of a length by the useful Lowry's Bar at Wincanton a year ago. He didn't re-appear until six weeks ago, but landed a Chepstow chase over today's trip and I expect/suspect he has more to offer.

I've got this as a two-horse race between (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen with a slight leaning towards the former. If these fail, then (4) Bourbali might edge Primoz out.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...Densworth is inconsistent, but has won 5 of 11 starts. His inconsistency is highlighted by the fact that he has failed to either finish or make the frame in 5 of 11 starts too, but did win by 7.5 lengths in a Class 3 chase at Wetherby a month ago at this class/trip. He's up 9lbs for that win, but if in the same mood, could well again here. The Edgar Wallace made the frame in 5 of 6 bumper/hurdle outings, winning twice and was a winner on chase debut in November 2021. He was placed 1122 over fences last season prior to finishing down the field in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April after which he had seven months off. He looked like needing the run when 4th of 7 at Kempton three weeks ago and should come on again.

Saint Segal has been a useful placepot pick in the past, making the frame in 8 of 18 starts, but hasn't got close to winning a race in nine starts since finishing 112 at the start of his chase career in November '22 to Jan '23. More is required here. Beau Balko is probably a safe one to put on the ticket builder, having only failed to finish in the first three home once in nine starts over fences and that was on debut 15 months ago. Since then he is 22133312 and drops in class today.

I've got this as (5) Beau Balko beating (1) Densworth with (2) The Edgar Wallace preferred to Saint Segal.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2: (3) El Rayo, (8) Roysse & (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3: (3) Wrappedupinmay, (4) Herakles Westwood & (5) Kintail

Leg 4: (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill

Leg 5: (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen

Leg 6: (1) Densworth, (2) The Edgar Wallace & (5) Beau Balko

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/12/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Catterick, Newcastle & Wincanton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

We've not played the A/W for a while and the biggest guaranteed pot is to be found at Newcastle, where the tapeta is deemed as standard for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 3.23...Sol Cayo has barely raced since winning over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton more than two years ago, but was second here over course and distance last time out (October) on his only A/W outing since that win and is still 7lbs lower than the win. Orange N Blue makes just a sixth career start today and runs for the first time since the end of January. He finished third in each of his last two outings, so if race-fit could be involved here dropping back 2f.

Orbital, on the other hand, has been busier, running ten times in the last eight months, winning two of eight on the A/W and finishing 12252 in his last five, going down by just a neck over this course and distance a fortnight ago. Life On The Rocks completes my shortlist in the hops that he finally transfers some of this summer's turf form to the A/W. From mid-May onwards he finished 1114331 on turf, but hasn't got close in three A/W outings since, but did finish third of eleven here over course and distance in April.

Life On The Rocks seems the likely to make the frame of those four and I'll take the other three forward ie (2) Sol Cayo, (3) Orange N Blue & (5) Orbital

Leg 2 @ 3.55...Wee Fat Mac won this race last year off the same mark (63) as today and despite being winless in 16 races since, he has raced pretty well in defeat, making the frame ten times and is probably the one to beat in a modest-looking contest. Show Me Show Me is also a former course and distance winner, who wasn't beaten by far in a tight C&D contest here five days ago just getting edged out late on off today's mark of 59. Oriental Prince wears a hood for the first time today after going off too quickly in a six length defeat over 6f here eleven days ago. He had gone down by just three quarters of a length over that 6f trip here on his previous run and that's the level he needs to get back to as he drops in trip.

Henery Hawk has failed to finish in the first three home in any of twelve starts since winning back to back races over this track/trip in February. Sadly for him, that moved his mark from 54 to 63 and then to 68, which was too much for him. If ready for a return to the A/W for the first time since July, he could be dangerously weighted off a mark of just 50. Stablemate Pockley is also on a barren run of 14 races outside of the first three home since a narrow runner-up defeat over 6f here in March, but ran pretty well here last time out going down by just a length and a half despite only managing to be fifth of twelve runners. He receives weight all round, but needs to start better.

All things considered, it's (2) Wee Fat Mac, (4) Show Me Show Me & (9) Henery Hawk for me.

Leg 3 @ 4.30...Volenti has finished 32121 in his last five, all here at Newcastle with the last three all over today's course and distance. His mark only moved up 5lbs during that sequence, but he'll need to work a bit harder today up another 5lbs. Odd Socks Havana hasn't quite got back to the form he showed earlier in the year when finishing 36234112 here over course and distance, but he's now 3lbs lower than that last runner-up finish from May and just 2lbs higher than his last win and can call upon the very useful 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser for further help with the weight.

Commander Crouch probably wasn't suited by a turgid 7f race here six weeks ago when making a debut for his new handler. There was no pace around that day and he was outpaced in the sprint tot he line. They should go off quicker here today and the extra furlong should also help. Jujubella is a lightly -raced (six starts) 3yo filly, whose two UK/yard outings to date have seen her finish 4th of 10 and 3rd of 12 over this course and distance, the latest being a 4.5 length defeat behind the above-mentioned Volenti, but she's 5lbs better off here and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, so could/should get closer if all goes to plan

Martin's Brig is another out of form sort with good past efforts, having made the frame in 7 of 16 over C&D, winning twice, the last of which was in late June six races ago off a mark of 53, before a subsequent 3rd of 13 a month later off 56, so today's mark of 50 could be a dangerous career-low.

Plenty with chances here, but it's (1) Volenti, (5) Jujubella & (6) Martin's Brig for me.

Leg 4 @ 5.00...This really should be all about Longhaired General, assuming he takes to the A/W surface. That said is yard & rider are both in good nick and they've a good record together at this venue. The horse has made the frame in each of his last three (223) on turf, including an excellent run in a Class 3 handicap at Thirsk two starts ago.

The challenge(s), if any are likely to come from Lechuga Lad, Steps In Time and/or Sorontar, I think. Lechuga Lad's yard are in good form and this race debutant comes from a dam who won over two miles and is a half-sister to Wickwing who has won over 10/11f in Italy.

Steps In Time's form of making the frame in both career starts so far could be a little misleading. Yes, he was ahead of six runners when 3rd of 9 over 1m½f at Wolverhampton earlier this month, but he was well beaten by nine lengths, so would need more here. Sorontar has been raised a pound since his last run, but he was only beaten by three quarters of a length as a runner-up at Wolverhampton last time out, staying on well over 1m½f and although this is a step up in class, it doesn't look a strong race.

(4) Longhaired General would be the one to go with here, but I'll also take (2) Steps In Time and (5) Sorontar as backups

Leg 5 @ 5.30...Jkr Cobbler is 211 in his last three outings, all here over class, course and distance in the last eight weeks. This will be tougher off 3lbs higher but he's in with a shout of the hat-trick, for sure. Panama City has made the frame in six of ten starts on the A/W, winning four times, including here at Newcastle over a mile a fortnight ago on his last run. He had to dig deep that day, so the drop back to 7f could help as he's also up 3lbs.

Pallas Lord is no mug, but has struggled since returning to action in October after almost six months off. His mark has dropped of course as a result as hee sekks to recapture the form that saw him finish 212111421 here at Newcastle in the first three months of the year. Rebeccas Girl was a comfortable winner when 3 lengths clear of the field over course and distance 11 days ago. She was up 5lbs and a furlong back here just three days later and was a runner-up headed very late on. Back down in trip, she's probably the one to beat here.

And from those, it's (3) Jkr Cobbler, (5) Panama City & (8) Rebeccas Girl for me.

Leg 6 @ 6.00...Dark Kestrel has made the frame in 7 of 15 on the A/W, but was slow away at Chelmsford last time out, which is usually fatal to one's chances and he ended up 4th of 8. Prior to that, he had finished 4313 in four runs on tapeta with a course and distance win here in late October, so he's not out of this. El Bufalo produced his best effort to date when beaten by less than a length at Chelmsford 12 days ago, only being headed in the closing stages. He did also win a 5f maiden on the tapeta at Wolverhampton this time last year.

Paddy's Day is one of those 'nearly' horses who always seem to run their best race, but don't quite do enough to win. He has made the frame in six of twelve on the A/W, but hasn't won any of 13 Flat/AW races since a course and distance win here over 13 months ago. That said, his A/W form since that win reads 42232, so you know he's going to be in the mix again even if he is up another 2lbs for not winning!

Mondammej won over 5f in a Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton on 23rd November 2021 off a mark of 97 and subsequently lost 40 races on the bounce, making the frame just seven times! He had a wind op recently and then returned to the winner's enclosure for the first time in exactly three years when winning here over course and distance on the 23rd November off a mark of 68 and has since won again over course and distance off 70 and seeks a 24-day hat-trick today. The Ridler is winless in sixteen races, so not quite at Mondammej levels just yet and he was a runner-up here over 6f last time out, headed late on and should benefit from a drop in trip.

I can see (6) Mondammej competing the hat-trick here today, but I'm also taking (1) Dark Kestrel and (3) Paddy's Day to complete my tickets.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Sol Cayo, (3) Orange N Blue & (5) Orbital

Leg 2: (2) Wee Fat Mac, (4) Show Me Show Me & (9) Henery Hawk

Leg 3: (1) Volenti, (5) Jujubella & (6) Martin's Brig

Leg 4: (2) Steps In Time, (4) Longhaired General & (5) Sorontar

Leg 5: (3) Jkr Cobbler, (5) Panama City & (8) Rebeccas Girl

Leg 6: (1) Dark Kestrel, (3) Paddy's Day & (6) Mondammej

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris