Read all sorts of commentaries and tips across a range of racing disciplines on the most popular horse racing blog in Britain, from staff and guest writers.

‘Money Without Work’ 4: Bookmaker Concessions – What Are They Worth?

/in /by

In this fourth article (previous instalments here), I am going to look at concessions that are offered from time to time by the "soft" bookmakers; and how we can assess if these concessions or offers are worthwhile, writes Russell Clarke.

The definition of "worthwhile" is exactly equal to "profitable" and, whilst we cannot know if any individual offer will be profitable, we can calculate (with the help of the “sharps”) whether, in the longer-term, these offers give us a "positive expected value" (known as EV+). At the most basic level, for example, if you are offered "enhanced odds" by a soft bookmaker, you can check if they truly are enhanced by examining the equivalent price with a sharp.

You should take advantage of whatever offers/concessions bookmakers are making when there is positive expected value. The market is a competitive one and bookmakers are keen to secure business.

The Fab 4 Bookmaker Concessions

The four most important concessions are:

- Generous Account Opening Offers/Reloads/Ongoing Offers

- Best Odds Guaranteed

- Price Boosts

- Enhanced Place Terms

Let's look at each.

Opening Offers/Reloads/Ongoing Offers

Opening Offers are obviously 'one-offs' so should be utilised but are clearly short-term. Some bookmakers do subsequently offer clients concessions to encourage loyalty. In the world of soft bookmakers, the competition for new clients is fierce. This is reflected in the offers they make to encourage punters to open accounts.

The generosity of the offers appears to ebb and flow, and often the best time to avail of the most generous offers is prior to the leading racing festivals such as Cheltenham, Aintree or Royal Ascot, or prior to major sporting events such as the World Cup. If you don’t have an account with any of the scores of bookmakers available, then before such events is often the optimum time to join as the offers can be especially generous.

Account opening offers tend to fall into different categories:

- Bet x, Get y in free bets: One of the better ones of this genre in recent times was from Bet365 where you could deposit up to £200 and receive the same amount in free bets once you had bet your deposit.

- Risk-free sign ups: Bet x and get y back as cash if your bet loses. This is, in effect, a free bet.

- Multi-bet Offers: Bet x and get y back as cash/free bets, but released in stages. The idea here is to get you 'used' to betting with the company involved.

- Profit Boosts: A profit boost (often 100%) on the return from your first bet.

- Miscellaneous: A good example might be 0% commission with an exchange for a period of time.

 

Almost every bookmaker offers an incentive that is a derivation of those above to open a new account. They all have a common denominator, which is a positive expected value (or EV+), more of which later.  In essence, they offer real and measurable value to us as punters. You should look to take advantage of ALL such offers and try to ‘time’ your new account openings to coincide with the more profitable offers.

Related to opening offers are the ‘Reload’ offers that some bookmakers give to existing clients from time to time. These are designed to get you betting with the respective bookmaker and are often watered down versions of the opening offers. These can offer EV+. An example as I write this article was Paddy Power offering up to £10 cash refund on a £10 bet on Dortmund v Schalke if Dortmund win (they did).

Finally there are ‘Ongoing’ offers. The best example of these are the Weekly Bet Clubs run by a number of bookmakers, typically a free £5 bet if you stake £25+ on any given week. Again this is designed to get you to bet with them regularly: if you are betting £25 typically, then it is a neat bonus for simply having £12.50 e/w in an enhanced place terms race at best odds guaranteed. Be rude not to!

Bookmakers want your business and are prepared to offer ‘loss leaders’ to sign you up, and further incentives to keep you betting. So, take advantage. They may be less keen on you when they recognise you only bet in EV+ situations, but you should cross that bridge only when you come to it!

 

Best Odds Guaranteed

Previously we have looked at the Efficient Market Hypothesis and how the “closing line” (Betfair Starting Price in horse racing) is the most accurate representation of the market. In order to beat the market we have to aim to consistently take odds that are greater than the closing line. One bookmaker concession that helps us to do this on a regular basis is Best Odds Guaranteed.

It should already be clear what a valuable concession BOG is. In the correct hands it enables you to bet at early prices (really valuable to punters who can correctly identify “value”) with the guarantee that you get a bigger price if you are wrong (and even the shrewdest will see the market move against them on a fairly regular basis). In effect you are betting against the bookmakers’ odds compilers when betting at BOG. They are quite a shrewd animal, but by definition cannot be the beast that is EMH or the “wisdom of the crowd” (which is what BSP or the closing line represents).

So, if you are skilled and have a profitable strategy, betting at BOG is optimal over BSP, despite the minimal margin you are attempting to overcome with the latter. Conversely, if you have a losing strategy, you would be better off betting at BSP and simply losing the low margin (essentially your commission), which amounts to a more enjoyable - or at least longer-lasting - punting demise!

There are examples when betting at exchange prices in the 15 minutes before a race (to assure liquidity) is optimal over BOG. One such example might be outsiders in big fields, or in races where a win bet is optimal over an each-way bet. But these are specific circumstances and should be viewed as exceptions that prove the rule. As a profitable punter you should utilise BOG for as long as you're able: it is one of the key concessions that the softs grant.

On almost any set of profitable results, BOG returns will be better than BSP. BOG should be your first call, exchange prices next (once the market is at 103% or less) and, finally, Betfair Starting Price. Never, ever, EVER bet at industry starting price.

I have a couple of real life examples of profitable strategies and the difference between SP and BOG, and then the difference between BSP and BOG:

The first example sees a series of 234 bets with a high percentage of winners (60%). The 141 winners brought a level stake profit of +22 at Starting Price (9.4% ROI) and +44 at BOG (18.8%ROI).

The second example comes from a shrewd gambler who some of you will know from his articles (I won’t name him). His last 480 bets have shown +75 at Betfair Starting Price (15.6%ROI - he’ll never keep that up!) but the same 480 bets are +190 at BOG (39.6%ROI - again, he’ll never keep that up, but it demonstrates the difference between BOG and BSP if the prices move!)

Those may be extreme examples, but they demonstrate the potential difference when a methodology identifies value before the market gets progressively more informed. If you have a winning strategy then BOG will outperform BSP. If you have a losing strategy, then BOG will obviously still beat SP, but is less certain to outperform BSP.

 

Price Boosts

Price Boosts are offered on an ad hoc basis to existing customers. Typically they will be available for a limited time and often to limited stakes. They are available on all sports and can be a simple price enhancement on a single horse, for example “was 7/4, now 9/4”, or an enhancement on a football accumulator. Most price boosts (but by no means all of them) offer EV+ but this should be checked rather than assumed.

Explaining how to calculate EV+ (positive expected value) is probably best done by way of an example. So, let us imagine a football accumulator being offered by Hills:

Man City/Liverpool/Brighton all to win at 11.0 (10/1).

How can we calculate if there is any real “value” in this offer? To do this we rely on the sharps to be the most accurate guide as to the true price of the 3 teams winning. In the football market we can use a company called Pinnacle and adjust their odds to 100%, or the Asian Markets, or the lay price on the exchanges. Let us assume Man City are 1.27, Liverpool 1.66 and Brighton 4.1 to lay on the exchanges. Multiplying these figures together we get 8.64 (1.27 x 1.66 x 4.1).

So, in this instance the bet has a Positive Expectation of 1.27 or 27%. This is calculated by dividing the price offered (10/1, or 11.0) by the true odds (8.64).

In real terms this means that if you placed this bet 1000 times at £1 per bet, your £1,000 stake should, in theory, return £1,270! At this point, I should point out that, in the real world, we have to put up with something called “variance”. That is definitely another article in itself (as you are soon to find out!) but, in theory, you have a bet here with a mathematically sound 27% positive expectation.

Virtually every “price boost” you see from a soft bookmaker can be evaluated in this way. You simply ignore all negative expectation “boosts” (if the price being offered in the above example was 7/1, then the expectation would be below 1.0 because 8/8.64 = 0.93) and so would have a negative expectation of -7%) and just back all the positive expectation boosts.

I know of two punters who utilise this methodology and who have shared their returns. The first showed his first 100 price boost bets (he has done many hundreds since). After 18 bets he was even, bets 42-80 he was losing and by bet 100 he was making a profit of 6.96%ROI. He calculated this was below the expected value of 9.15% ROI because the average price he took was 5.46 and the average true odds were 5.00. The second punter had made a profit of 4,775 from stakes of 20,059, a whopping 23.8% ROI.

Price Boosts are best found by looking at matched betting sites on facebook where contributors highlight boosts they have found, or, more labour intensively, by scouring the websites of the bookmakers that regularly offer such concessions.

Next week, in part two of Bookmaker Concessions, we'll drill down into the maths of enhanced place terms. There's nothing too complex, but knowing when it is better to bet to standard each way terms and when the enhancement offers value is crucial for win and place players.

- RC

Monday Musings: Rapid Start Far From Flat

/in /by

The two unbeaten favourites didn’t collect the first two Classics of the UK racing season as many, including the bookmakers, were expecting, writes Tony Stafford. Pinatubo was a slightly one-paced third as Kameko gave Andrew Balding a second UK Classic in the 2,000 Guineas, 17 years after Casual Look was his first in the Oaks. Yesterday, Love made it six 1,000 Guineas triumphs for Aidan O’Brien, four in the last six years, as the Roger Charlton filly Quadrilateral also had to be content with third place.

For quite a while in Saturday’s big event, staged behind closed doors of course, it looked as though O’Brien would be celebrating an 11th “2,000” – from back home in Ireland as he left on-course matters to be attended to by his accomplished satellite team. Wichita, turning around last October’s Dewhurst form both with Pinatubo and his lesser-fancied-on-the-day stable companion Arizona, went into what had looked a winning advantage under super-sub Frankie Dettori until close home when the Balding colt was produced fast, late and wide by Oisin Murphy.

The young Irishman might already be the champion jockey, but the first week of the new season, begun eight months after that initial coronation last autumn, suggests he has a new confidence and maturity built no doubt of his great winter success in Japan and elsewhere. A wide range of differing winning rides were showcased over the past few days and Messrs Dettori and Moore, Buick, Doyle and De Sousa clearly have an equal to contend with.

It was Dettori rather than Moore who rode Wichita, possibly because of the relative form in that Dewhurst when Wichita under Ryan got going too late. This time Arizona got his lines wrong and he had already been seen off when he seemed to get unbalanced in the last quarter-mile. Kameko will almost certainly turn up at Epsom now. Balding was keen to run Bangkok in the race last year despite that colt’s possible stamina deficiency. The way Kameko saw out the last uphill stages, he could indeed get the trip around Epsom a month from now.

The 2020 Guineas weekend follows closely the example of its immediate predecessor. Last year there was also a big team of O’Brien colts, including the winner Magna Grecia, and none was by their perennial Classic producer, Galileo. The following afternoon, the 14-1 winner Hermosa, was Galileo’s only representative in their quartet in the fillies’ race. This weekend, again there were four Ballydoyle colts in their race, and none by Galileo. Two, including Wichita, are sons of No Nay Never. As last year, there was a single daughter of Galileo in yesterday’s race, the winner Love. Her four and a quarter length margin must make it pretty much a formality that she will pitch up at Epsom next month.

Love was unusually O’Brien’s only representative yesterday which rather simplified Ryan Moore’s choice. It will surely be hard to prise her from him at Epsom whatever the other Coolmore-owned fillies show at The Curragh and elsewhere in the interim.

With Irish racing resuming at Naas this afternoon, attention will be switching immediately to the Irish Classics next weekend. What with those races, which Ryan will sit out under the 14-day regulations, the Coolmore owners and their trainer will have a clear course to formulate their Derby team and Oaks back-up squad. It would appear that the good weather enjoyed in the UK after which so many big stables, notably Messrs Johnston, Gosden and Balding, have made a flying start on the resumption, has also been kind to Irish trainers.

I know that sometimes in the spring the grass gallops at Ballydoyle have barely been usable by the time of the first month of action. The delayed and truncated first phase should continue to be to the benefit of the more powerful yards and maiden races, just as those in the UK, are already looking like virtual group races, especially on the big tracks.

Aidan O’Brien has 11 runners on today’s opening card, including four in the second event for juveniles, where Lippizaner, who managed a run in one of the Irish Flat meetings squeezed in before the shutdown, is sure to be well fancied. A son of Uncle Mo, he was beaten half a length first time out and the experience, which is his alone in the field, should not be lost on him.

The shutdown has been a contributor to a denial of one of my annual pleasures, a leisurely look at the Horses in Training book which I normally buy during the Cheltenham Festival but forgot to search for at this year’s meeting. The usual fall-back option of Tindalls bookshop in Newmarket High Street has also been ruled out, and inexplicably I waited until last week before thinking to order it on-line.

There are some notable absentees from the book and it has become a growing practice for some of the bigger trainers to follow the example of Richard Fahey who for some years has left out his two-year-olds. John Gosden has joined him in that regard otherwise they both would have revealed teams comfortably beyond 250.

Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon and Andrew Balding all have strings of more than 200 and all five have been quick off the mark, each taking advantage of a one-off new rule instigated by the BHA. In late May trainers wishing to nominate two-year-olds they believed might be suitable to run at Royal Ascot, which begins a week tomorrow, could nominate them and thereby get priority status to avoid elimination with the inevitable over-subscription in the early fixtures.

In all, 163 horses were nominated with Johnston leading the way with 11; Charlie Appleby and Fahey had eight each; Hannon and Archie Watson seven and Haggas five. All those teams have been fast away in all regards but notably with juveniles. The plan, aimed at giving Ascot candidates racecourse experience in the limited time available, has clearly achieved its objective.

Among the trainers with a single nominated juvenile, Hughie Morrison took the chance to run his colt Rooster at Newmarket. Beforehand he was regretting that he hadn’t realised he could have taken him to a track when lockdown rules could apparently have been “legally bent” if not actually transgressed. Rooster should improve on his close seventh behind a clutch of other Ascot-bound youngsters when he reappears.

When I spoke to Hughie before the 1,000 Guineas he was adamant that the 200-1 shot Romsey “would outrun those odds”. In the event Romsey was the only other “finisher” in the 15-horse field apart from Love and, in getting to the line a rapidly-closing fifth, she was only a length and a half behind Quadrilateral. So fast was she moving at that stage, she would surely have passed the favourite in another half furlong. The Racing Post “analysis” which said she “lacked the pace of some but kept on for a good showing” was indeed damning with faint praise. Hughie also could be pleased yesterday with a promising revival for Telecaster, a close third behind Lord North and Elarqam in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Haydock despite getting very warm beforehand.

No doubt I’ll be returning to Horses in Training quite a lot in the coming weeks, but just as the long list of Galileo colts and fillies was dominant among the Ballydoyle juveniles for many years, the numerical power of Dubawi among Charlie Appleby’s team is now rivalling it. Last year, when I admit I didn’t really notice it, there were 40 Dubawi juveniles: this year the number has grown to an eye-opening 55. At the same time the yard has gone well past 200, reflecting his upward trajectory ever since taking over the main Godolphin job ten years ago. I’m sure Pinatubo has some more big wins in his locker.

I always look forward to seeing the team of Nicolas Clement, French Fifteen’s trainer, in the book, and he is there as usual with his middling-strength team. Nowadays much of what used to pass for free time for this greatly-admired man is taken up with his role as the head of the French trainers. He confessed that carrying out his duties over the weeks in lockdown and then the changes in the areas in France where racing could be allowed had been very demanding.

This weekend, Nicolas along with everyone in racing had a dreadful shock when his younger brother Christophe, who has been training with great success in the US for many years, suffered a terrible tragedy. On Saturday a Sallee company horsebox, transporting ten Clement horses from Florida to race in New York burst into flames on the New Jersey Turnpike, killing all ten animals. One report suggested that the horsebox had collided with a concrete stanchion. It added that the two drivers attempted to free the horses but were unable to do so.

At the top level, where both Clement brothers have been accustomed to operating on their respective sides of the pond, the rewards can be great. But as this incident graphically and starkly shows, there is often a downside for trainers and owners, though rarely one of quite this horrific finality.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Astrozone @ 9/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, ridden and hung left entering final furlong, stayed on to win by a length and a quarter)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Last week, Matt did a series of videos around the racecards and the report suite and today, I'm going to use that data to suggest a runner that should give us a run for our money, so let's just open the whole card first...

As you can see, that aside from jockey PJ McDonald's C5 icon, the only positive form for trainers and jockey comes for our runner.

The blue zeroes say that none of the field appear in any of my saved query tool angles, but two horses (ours and A Place to Dream) have a Red Report Angles number and with our pick featuring 7 times on my report angles, that's my way in for today, as opening that box up shows the following...

So, we see that the horse is 3 from 7 at this track : she's actually 2 from 4 over course and distance. We'll ignore trainer 30-day form, as we've only a week of results to rely upon, but it's clear that Richard Hughes had a decent week last week and he does well with horses coming back from a break.

Jockey Finley Marsh rides the course well and has a good record here when riding for Mr Hughes. Other than the horses for courses angles which doesn't carry the relevant figures, the A/E is over 1.4 for all my angles and the IV is 2.1 and above, these are excellent stats.

As for the race itself, this type of contest lends itself to horses drawn low that "like to get out" and the two horses that look most likely to lead are ours in stall 1 and a runner in stall 4. This is best illustrated by the Geegeez pace/draw heat map for the contest as follows...

So, all of the above considered, I think we're in a pretty strong position today. What I haven't touched upon is that although our mare was only fourth last time out, that was a Class 4 contest and she drops two classes to run here today She was bumped at the start of the contest and lost ground and as it was her fifth effort in less than seven weeks, it might also have been one race too many at the time and this graphic might also be of interest here...

More pictures than words today, but still plenty of numbers to consider...

...as I recommend...a 1pt win bet on Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor and Hills at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

A Sectional Refresher

/in , /by

We are hopefully going to be hearing a lot more about sectional timing - more importantly, what sectional timing tells us about how horses performed and races were run - this season and beyond. With that in mind, I thought I'd offer a little refresher... to myself as much as anyone!

I, and Tony Keenan before me, have written about the subject and I'd encourage you to read those articles:

Why Sectionals Matter

What Is The Point of Sectional Timing in Horse Racing

For those who want to get stuck into the mechanics, I highly recommend Simon Rowlands' Introduction to Sectional Timing, which you can download here.

If you favour speaky over reading, the video below is part 'why sectionals' and part 'how it works round here' and includes the answer to the crucial question, "How do I switch it on in my geegeez setup?"

Secure a beverage and give it a peruse if you fancy...

Oh, and any questions, leave a comment below. If I don't know the answer (quite possible), I will try to find someone who does.

Matt

SotD Update, 1st to 6th June 2020

/in /by

Hello and welcome back to the first SotD roundup for what seems like an eternity and I'm happy to say it has been an amazing return to action, as we shot out of the blocks with three winners (at 5/1, 7/1 and then 9/1!) plus a placer giving us a phenomenal 18pts profit on the week.

Those who have been with me for a while will already be expecting what I'm going to say next, though...it isn't/won't always be like this. We take the rough with the smooth at SotD and there'll be times when things don't go our way.

No over-celebrating the winners and no over-mourning the losing streaks. Long-term profitability still remains the target, but yes I really enjoyed a week that I was initially fearing.

Chris

Selections & Results : 01/06/20 to 06/06/20

01/06 : Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/4
02/06 : Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2
03/06 : Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG WON at 7/1
04/06 : Buniann @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4
05/06 : Corvair @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 10/3
06/06 : Astrozone @ 9/1 BOG WON at 9/2

01/06/20 to 06/06/20 :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +18.00pts

June 2020 :
3 winners from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +18.00pts
ROI = +300.00%

2020 to date :
12 winners from 67 = 17.91% SR
P/L: +3.83pts
ROI = +5.72%

Overall:
668 winners from 2533 = 26.37% S.R
P/L: +535.70pts
ROI: +21.15%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

5th June Video Preview: Bringing it together

/in , /by

In this fifth and final video preview of the week, I use the racecards, form tools and reports to isolate a few interesting horses in the seven older-horse handicaps taking place on Friday.

This series has been about process rather than desperately trying to pick winners. Happily, it has illustrated the process with numerous scores including 22/1 Zodiakos on the very first day. Whether you backed any of them or not, I hope you've gained some insights into the kit we have here and what it can do for YOU.

Most importantly, I hope you've seen that fun and profit are not mutually exclusive and that winning from betting on horses is possible.

Here's my final episode of the weekend. With luck there will be something of value within...

4th June Preview: 2yo Races, and Laying

/in , /by

In today's video, I cover a few points which have been raised this week, specifically:

- why don't my Report Angles show straight after I've set them up?

- how can I use reports for the purpose of laying horses?

And I gaze through the fog of unraced two-year-old races in the vain hope of trying to find a bet...

Newmarket Racecourse: Pace, Draw and Trainers

/in , /by

We are back, finally, and part of the plan to kickstart racing in the UK is a disproportionately high volume of early meetings scheduled to take place at Newmarket, headquarters of flat racing in this country, writes Jon Shenton. At the current count, no less than 21 days of racing are planned in Suffolk between now and the end of August; that’s a meeting, on average, every five days or so. It’s high time, then, to give Newmarket some overdue attention in order to try and unearth some of its secrets.

Newmarket Courses

Newmarket has two distinct tracks, the Rowley Mile and the July course. They are to all intents and purposes separate entities, although they both share ground in longer distance races where they join the Cesarewitch course.

Newmarket racecourse satellite map

The maps below should give a more effective picture of the arrangement.

The Rowley Mile

The home of the 2000 and 1000 Guineas, scheduled for this weekend. It’s a gun-barrel straight track 1 mile 2 furlongs in length, where it joins the shared strip for more extended distance races. Perhaps its key characteristic is “the dip” a furlong from the winning post, where a downhill undulation develops into a stiff uphill finish, placing an emphasis on stamina. The course is exceptionally wide and is generally considered a fair test, in theory at least.

 

The July Course

Host of the July Cup, this course features the 'Bunbury Mile' straight track, again dovetailing with the shared straight adjacent to the A14 for distances greater than a mile. The course map below doesn’t do it justice, but a signature feature of the July track is the stiff uphill finish over the final furlong or so which, similarly to the Rowley Mile, often sorts the wheat from the chaff.

 

Newmarket Racecourse: Trainers to note

The first staging post in these articles is usually analysing trainer performance at the track. It often gives a way into more nuanced findings.

The below table shows the record of all stables which have had at least 100 runners on each of the Rowley and July courses at SP’s of 20/1 or shorter from the 2010 season onwards. The info is divided into a total Newmarket performance section (combined Rowley Mile and July), followed by the individual course records. The table is sorted by the Total Newmarket overall A/E.

I thought it important to illustrate the performance by individual track, essentially treating them separately. That was partly to satisfy my own curiosity, but primarily to establish if there was any discernible variance in a yard’s record between the two that might justify further examination.

Rather underwhelmingly, there isn’t much in terms of the individual course data to get stuck into. Perhaps Mark Johnston's and Richard Fahey’s strong July course records are worth a second glance. Likewise, Roger Charlton’s impressive Rowley Mile data too. Broadly, though, the performance is much of a muchness across the twin tracks.

Mick Channon

Based on the total Newmarket data, the UK No.1 for the second consecutive article is Mick Channon. There may be some related contingencies at play here, however, as in my last edition I commenced with a focus on Newmarket juvenile racing! You can read that here.

Analysing the Channon yard data in more detail, I have some interest in his three-year-old runners, enough to warrant a quick perusal anyway. Performance is a little sketchy over the last three years meaning angle/data confidence is at the lower end of the spectrum. Nonetheless, here is quite simply his record with three-year olds at the track since 2010:

 

And again, equally as simply, if runners are omitted that started at a price greater than 10/1, the following picture emerges:

His 2019 record was 0/5 and there was only a solitary winner in each of 2017 and 2018, so it’s not an approach to follow with your last pound - what is? However, a relatively short-priced Channon entry is probably a good start for a shortlist.

Charlie Appleby

Moving on, as also mentioned in the preceding article the original intention was to analyse Charlie Appleby’s course record with Juveniles. It didn’t quite happen due to some very alluring John Gosden stats! However, this time there is no shiny object to divert focus.

The linchpin of Godolphin trains at Moulton Paddocks, within Newmarket itself, and the overall record at the track of his runners is mightily impressive. Appleby has clocked up 129 victories from 525 runners and is marginally profitable to back at SP, too. Arguably, performance on the Rowley Mile is slighter stronger than the July Course, but not strong enough to solely focus on one over the other.

I'll begin with a consideration of performance by race class, an attribute that regularly provides a pathway to developing stronger angles, and it is no different here:

The numbers clearly show that yields from elite level (Class 1) racing suffer in comparison to the lower-class events in terms of win rates, place rates, P&L and A/E measures. Whilst in angle terms we can exclude Class 1 racing from any systematic approach based on the numbers above, there is a cautionary note which requires observation; namely that the yard is steadily improving at this leading level. The graph below illustrates Appleby’s winning numbers in Class 1’s at Newmarket as well as at every UK course (including Newmarket) from 2013, when he assumed the licence from the disgraced Mahmood Al Zarooni.

2019 notwithstanding there is a clear indication of incremental improvement. With the 2000 Guineas odds-on favourite Pinatubo in the ranks, those Class 1 wins are likely to grow, at least according to the current market. So, whilst excluding Class 1 Appleby runners from a data and angle perspective is a pragmatic move based on historical records, this does not mean that Pinatubo is an unwise wager next weekend. Indeed, it makes no comment either way on the matter!

Evaluating Appleby’s Class 2 or lower runners at HQ by SP brings in further optionality as to how best to utilise the data:

Broadly speaking, all these Appleby prices are potentially worth following from a value perspective. However, I’m inclined to play this one around the 13/2 cut off or lower mark to keep things ticking over, hopefully without too long between drinks.

I’ve checked these runners for further insight and sharpening in terms of race types, ages, days since last run and a myriad of other attributes but in truth the yard delivers consistently across all variables at HQ.

It’s not rocket science, as they say, but by backing the charges of Charlie Appleby at HQ in Class 2 or lower racing, reliable returns have been garnered. Here is the record of all SP 13/2 or shorter runners from the yard. It is profitable in every year aside from a small loss in 2014.

This year may be different given its unique Covid-infused nature, but it’s a very solid angle which should continue giving up some value all things being equal.

Aidan O’Brien

I fully expected the doyen of Ballydoyle to feature heavily on the trainer list. However, surprisingly (to me anyway), he hasn’t had the century of runners on the July Course to qualify for inclusion on the overall trainer data table. I’m hopeful he’ll get over it.

However, APOB still merits microscopic focus at Newmarket, where his record is exemplary; and I think I’ve found an aspect of it which demands closer scrutiny.

The table above represents the yard's 'all in' Newmarket record from the 2010 season to present. Backing every runner from Ballydoyle at SP would have resulted in a 10% return at SP and a whopping 37% at BSP. Go figure.

As may be expected from such a powerhouse stable, there is a large focus and concentration of runners, wins and overall stellar performance in Class 1 events:

And by drilling down further into those Class 1 races into their individual Pattern status there is even more to ponder upon:

Based upon these numbers, it would strongly appear that the greater the competition, the sharper the performance of O’Brien horses. Perhaps at this elite level the increased quality of rivals ensures that some value can be attained by backing the O’Brien contingent; maybe it relates to second-, third- and even fourth-string entries possessing the requisite ability to 'pull rank' on better-fancied stablemates.

It’s not one for the wise guys but, nevertheless, blindly backing all Group 1 and 2 entrants trained by O’Brien at Newmarket since 2010 produced 41 wins from 191 runs and would have netted a roughly £85 profit to a level stake at starting price, or a 45% return on investment if you prefer. The exchange SP ROI is closer to 85%.

Duty leads me to point out that there are three winners in the sample at 25-1, which certainly puts some fizz into the numbers. All the same, to be in the black by backing arguably the premier trainer in Europe is not to be sniffed at. This probably works as an angle in its own right.

However, there is a possible downside to this approach: as mentioned, often the yard has numerous entrants in these top-class events, which would result in several wagers in the same race. Mulling these multi-runner jamborees opened a further potential way to play, at least theoretically.

How many times does a seemingly second, or third, fourth or fifth string horse from the yard deliver the goods on one of these big days? Always seemingly obvious after the event, too.

Testing a hypothesis that bounties may just be greater where the O’Brien money is split rather than focused on a solitary runner appeared to be a worthwhile exercise. Here are the numbers for O’Brien’s Group 1 and 2 entries at Newmarket by the number of Ballydoyle runners in each race.

I'm pretty interested in this. Solo representatives from the yard undoubtedly perform well, with 24% winning and 40% placing and there is limited damage on the profit and loss front. However, where there is a multi-O’Brien entry in a Group 1 or 2 race at Newmarket, there appears to be value in backing all of them. The annualised split of these mass runner Newmarket accomplishments is detailed below:

Notably, the volume of races with multiple runners is increasing in recent times. The column “Races” represents how many individual events have had more than one runner from the yard. So, for example in 2019, O’Brien had more than one horse in nine G1 or G2 races at Newmarket, with a total of 25 horses running in those nine races.

I checked the results individually of all 2018 and 2019 races from the table above and pulled together the view below:

The column key is:

“AOB run” - number of runners in a race from the O’Brien stable alone
“Tot Run” - the total number of runners in the race
“AOB best” - the best finishing position of a Ballydoyle runner
“AOB2” - the second-best placed AOB runner and so on (AOB3, 4, 5)
“BP AOB” - the SP of the best-placed AOB horse, with winning SP price in bold.

The profit and loss data is compelling with a super roll call of horses in the mix to boot. In 2019 Magna Grecia, Hermosa and Ten Sovereigns cleaned up in the G1’s for example. I’m intrigued by this. Often, I’ve thought that following O’Brien second string (or other strings) entries may be an enjoyable pursuit and, in this case, it seems to have foundation.

The Achilles heel of this premise is that it does not translate to any other track in the UK. Multiple Ballydoyle runners don’t add up at Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, York or anywhere else for that matter. That does beg the question why it occurs at HQ alone. It could be course configuration, Newmarket being a focal point for the yard, a quirk of the numbers, or a multitude of other potential reasons.

It’s not the most secure approach to wagering, but personally I will be tracking and dipping into this angle in a small way over the coming months. At the very least it’s quite interesting and it might be fun. Of course, the 2000 Guineas will be a test, a multiple O’Brien entry competing against an odds-on Appleby hot pot in Pinatubo. Hmm.

Pace and Draw on the Rowley Mile

Sadly, there are no quick wins (in my view) when it comes to analysing the draw at Newmarket, when focusing on the Rowley Mile at any rate.

However, before addressing that, under normal circumstances utilising the Pace Analyser and Draw Analyser tools is an ideal platform to perform detailed analysis on any course. Sadly, there is more of a challenge where Newmarket is concerned given that the pace and draw data is combined for both the Rowley and July courses.

Where there is a will there is a way, however, and in this instance the Query Tool can be used to gain all the data and intel required, with a small caveat.

With only one or two exceptions, action on the Rowley Mile occurs in April, May, September, October and November. The July course is deployed in June, July (duh!) and August almost exclusively. Thus, by using the month filter in QT, draw and pace indications can be obtained for each individual course. The only cross-pollination I can see since 2011 relates to May 2014, when there were fifteen races on the July course at the end of the month. The net result is that Rowley pace and draw data is slightly 'contaminated' by July course info. It’s relatively trivial in nature, but need highlighting.

Draw and Pace over 7-furlongs on the Rowley Mile

I have evaluated most race distances on the Rowley Mile course and it’s fair to say that any leverage from stall position is hard to find. As the course is wide, and the rail and stall positions change with regularity it is difficult to build up a consistent picture. I spent some time trying to split the draw outcome based on starting stall situation on the track (far side, middle, near side), eventually concluding that I was guilty of looking for something that was not there.

Pace is a slightly different story though as we’ll see.

The below table shows the IV3 ratings, manually derived and calculated from QT data for performance by stall position and field size. I won’t explain what IV and IV3 are in this article as Matt has done a much more comprehensive and clearer version in this blog post recently.

 

The draw data in the left section, using actual stall position (accounting for non-runners), perhaps illustrate a marginal benefit to a stall berthing on the wings, certainly in larger fields. The advantage of being located on the outer could vary by stall position on the course. For example, if the stalls were situated on the far rail, then it is not inconceivable that a low draw* may be slightly favourable and vice-versa. There is nothing solid to recommend here though.

*A low draw position is on the far side of the track based on the standard TV camera angle, obviously a high draw relates to the near side (demonstrated to full effect in last years 2000 Guineas by Magna Grecia)

The section to the right of the table contains IV ratings for Pace. That section clearly illustrates that early speed is an advantage over this distance. Given the vast expanse of the course, it may have been expected that hold up runners would have performed better, given that bad luck in running should be less of an issue. However, the early pace in general holds up. It’s seemingly an uphill battle to make up ground over that stiff final furlong or so.

 

Pace over 6-furlongs and a Mile on the Rowley Course

To check that applies over other distances the same process has been applied, for pace only, to two of the other trips raced along the Rowley Mile.

 

The pattern is the same, early speed plays an important role across all field sizes and race distances form six furlongs to a mile. Identification of the pace profile of the race would appear to be of primary importance, certainly when compared to stall position.

 

July Course Pace Data by Distance

The July course pace composition is of a similar nature to that of its Rowley Mile counterpart. Being in the front rank early is pretty much always advantageous. The stiff finish again makes it tough to make up significant amounts of ground in the latter stages, hypothetically anyway. The tables are unambiguous, not just in terms of early leaders but also in the herculean task most midfield and hold up (depending on race distance) types must overcome.

Newmarket Punting Pointers Summary

There's no doubt that both the Rowley Mile and July courses are difficult to grasp in terms of the use of data to construct wagering strategies. My own main takeaways are that for once I’m not going to stress too much on the draw aspect of races. Building a picture of pace will form the starting point of race analysis on either track for me; unless, of course, there is an Appleby runner in a non-Pattern race, or a multiple AOB entry in a Group 1 or 2, in which case I’ll just back those and move on!

Enjoy the racing, it’s good to be back.

- JS

3rd June Preview: Gold Trainer Reports

/in , /by

In tonight's video preview of tomorrow's racing, I get all evangelical about one particular component of the Gold setup that you absolutely MUST use. It is golden. It really is. Honestly. Watch the video to see what, and why. And please, please, please take action with it: it will improve your betting literally overnight.

Important Note:

The report jobs run twice daily so anything you configure as per the video will not instantly populate. However, once you've set things up they'll be in place from the next report run onwards. (The reports run at 4.30 am/pm daily, and I'm triggering a few extras at the moment to pick things up a little more in real time).

Here's the video...

‘Money Without Work’ 3: Sharp & Soft Bookmakers

/in /by

Part 3 of this series looks at different types of bookmaker. Earlier episodes can be viewed here.

The terms “Sharps” and “Softs” refer to bookmakers that operate very different business models, writes Russell Clarke. Sharp bookmakers operate a low margin/high turnover model and Soft bookmakers operate a high margin/low turnover model. Examples of Sharp bookmakers would be Pinnacle or one of the larger Asian firms such as SBO, or indeed an exchange. Examples of Soft bookmakers are all around us in the UK (Ladbrokes, Hills, Corals, 365, indeed, all of the household names). Why is this of any concern to us as punters?

To answer that, we need to refer back to our old friend, The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), discussed in Part 2. The hypothesis posits that in public markets, at any given time, all information is incorporated into the prices. Therefore, prices only move in reaction to new information. As a consequence it is not possible to “beat the market”. There is strong mathematical 'proof' of the EMH but also compelling empirical evidence that appears to contradict the theory; however, that discussion will have to wait for another day. This conflicting evidence results in there being “weak”, “semi-strong” and “strong” versions of EMH. For betting purposes, we can assume that the EMH exists and is, at least, semi-strong.

Back in our real world, let us take an example of a football match. Well in advance, the Sharps will offer tentative prices and punters (skilled and unskilled) will begin to place their bets. The Sharps will take more note of the skilled punters' judgement and adjust prices to gradually build a balanced book as the prices become stronger and a closer reflection of the supply and demand in the market. The prices become ever more accurate and the margins ever smaller as kick off time approaches and more information (such as team news) comes into the market place. At kick-off the “closing line” price is the most accurate assessment of the likely outcome. This is not open to argument or interpretation. Logically, the closing price will be more accurate than the earlier prices because there are now more participants and more information in the market. This is backed up by any number of empirical studies.

Can punters beat the closing line? EMH says no. Certain tipsters and companies that act as adjudicators of tipsters, offer empirical evidence that says yes. They are, or know of, a tipster that bets at closing line (or BSP if referring to UK horse racing) and has recorded profits. But, is the sample size of bets large enough? Is the tipster merely experiencing a lucky run? If we had a coin-flipping contest with 5,000 coin-flippers, one would emerge victorious and he would be “champion coin-flipper”, but so what? Again, the argument is mathematically complex and this article is not the place for such mathematical proofs. For now, let us just agree that beating the closing line of the Sharps is extremely difficult.

It is with the Sharp bookmakers that we see evidence of the EMH. Sharp bookmakers have the largest markets in terms of liquidity, of money wagered. In reality, Soft bookmakers are merely brokers of bets. The Sharps are the market makers and the Softs merely copy the prices. At first glance, because the Sharps bet to slim margins and allow big bets and don’t restrict/close accounts, it looks like they are the bookmakers we should concentrate on and find it easier to win with. But, in reality it is the opposite that is true. It is the Softs that offer the greatest scope for profitable betting. It is their business model that makes them vulnerable as we will see when we examine bookmaker concessions in later articles.

To win with either, it is clearly optimal to bet before the closing line. The following applies to horse racing but can be applied to other sports betting. We need to bet before the closing line because we know at the closing line, the market is at its most efficient. Let us run through the stages for betting on horse racing:

Ante-Post: Softs protect themselves with large margins in their quoted prices.

Ante-Post betting is one of the few aspects of horse racing betting that has been largely unchanged over my lifetime. The major top-class and prestigious handicaps continue to be used as a shop window by the major betting firms for publicity. It remains an area for bookmakers that is generally a loss leader and thus qualifies as an area of special interest to profitable punters. It is true that bookmakers are now far more sophisticated and sensitive to price movements than they were in the past, but, nevertheless some scope remains.

Aside from the major showpiece events, bookmakers price up the major Saturday races on a Tuesday/Wednesday and this also affords scope for the independent thinking punter. When bookmakers price up a race ante-post , the game becomes Your Skill v Bookmaker Odds Compiler and that is a much easier battle to win than Your Skill v Combined Knowledge of the Marketplace. The marketplace is a far shrewder opponent than a bookmaker odds compiler!

The one slight difference with ante-post betting is the allowance for the potential of your bet not running and/or horses being supplemented and introduced into the betting subsequent to your wager. Both can be accounted for and are not as crucial as many in the media (and racing itself) would have you believe. Forget all the nonsense you hear from people such as “he’s 10/1 just to line-up” when they are talking about a Classic contender for the following season. If the horse has a realistic chance, barring injury - and they are very rare - the said horse almost always arrives at the start on the day.

Another modern day advantage punters have when betting ante-post is the betting exchange. Although Betfair and Betdaq have weak ante-post markets (because understandably punters don’t wish to tie up their betting capital for months) they can be useful closer to, and on the day of, the event.  If your ante-post selection has shortened in price it offers the chance to hedge or lay-off part of the bet.

Getting meaningful stakes on to a horse ante-post without the help of agents is almost impossible for shrewd punters and so ante-post betting can only form a small part of a profitable strategy, but nevertheless it is attractive enough to pursue as the returns on investment can be very high. The anguish of non-runners can soon be discounted when you land a touch at four or five times the returned starting price!

First prices: These appear late afternoon/evening before racing. Again, Softs have large margins and restricted stakes. Consistently betting at this time will flag you up to bookmakers (if you are winning or consistently beating the starting price). A number of tipsters use evening prices. Whilst it is credence to them that they can recognise “value”, such a modus operandi becomes impossible to replicate in the real world.

Morning Prices: Margins are reduced and higher stakes permitted. On the exchanges (Sharps) liquidity is building. At this time, best odds guaranteed is available with most soft bookmakers and, providing you are not obviously “arbing” (backing horses at morning prices that are trading at lesser odds on the exchange), then the bookmakers are more willing to lay reasonable sums, at least until they recognise you as a winner.

Pre-race: 15 minutes prior to the “off” time of the event. Lowest margins and highest stakes permitted. The market becomes more and more accurate. At this stage, the exchanges will be betting to 103% or less and, in most instances, this is where you are likely to find the better prices, rather than with the soft bookmakers.

We are aiming for the sweet-spot of lower margins, better liquidity and a less than perfect/knowledgeable market. To some degree, where that sweet-spot is depends upon your own circumstance. The takeaway here is that, despite the lure of the low margin, betting at BSP or the closing line is a fools’ errand for all but the most successful players. Your own sweet-spot will depend upon your account availability, your need for liquidity (i.e. how much you stake) and the appeal of valuable concessions such as Best Odds Guaranteed and Enhanced Place Terms. For most, the morning of the race should witness the majority of your betting action.

In the next article, I will cover some concessions that the Soft bookmakers offer and how and why you should take advantage.

- RC

June 2nd (Very Short!) Video Preview

/in /by

Tonight's video has had to give second best to some urgent things I need to attend to, alas.

Do have a look at the short explanation below, and then check out this post which I'm very hopeful will point out some features about which you're either not aware or had forgotten...

10 things you didn't know about Geegeez Gold racecards

Matt

10 Things You Didn’t Know About Geegeez Racecards

/in /by

Many of you have used Geegeez Gold racecards to look at the day's racing for quite a while. But still, lots of racing fans remain unaware of the reasons why our cards are regarded as just about the most powerful on the webz. Let me explain...

The Geegeez racecard is a highly effective "information processor", interpreting reams of trainer, sire, jockey, and of course, horse, data into insightful visual form that you can use to make better choices in less time.

For many, though, a number of the key features - and their associated benefits in terms of knowledge, and value edge - have gone undetected... until now.

Below I list 10 things you may not have known were there, and show you how you can put them to work for you. We start with one of the original features, and still easily the most popular, Instant Expert.

#1 Instant Expert

If you want to know which horses in a race are best suited to conditions, this rather boldly titled view is the first port of call for a majority of our users. The reason? It cuts right to the heart of the matter in just a few seconds. If you've ever looked at Instant Expert, you'll be familiar with its traffic light ranking system and how that can immediately shine a light on a potential value play; or, just as useful, highlight a fancied runner with plenty to prove.

But two aspects that you may not have known about are:

i. you can review the relevant form history of trainers, jockeys and sires as well as horses
ii. you can view the form detail by clicking on the summary in question

To look at non-horse form, just select the entity you want from the dropdown menu top left. This helpful moving image shows both of these 'hidden gems' in action.

That is something well worth knowing, and here are nine more killer 'form hacks' lurking within our UK and Irish racecards.

Pro Tip: Look for races where there is a strong contrast between one, perhaps two, horses with a lot of green and amber, and the remainder of the field which are largely red. This everyday occurrence can indicate a lack of depth to the race, in form profiling terms at least, and offers some great value play opportunities.

#2 Trainer Form

Horse form is super important, especially when there is lots of it to review. But what about when a horse is making its debut, or has run only a few times, or is doing something new and different for the first time today? Our trainer form cuts right to the chase by not only showing recent - and longer-term course - form; but also by isolating those contextual aspects of this horse in this race.

Like most things in life, it's easier to explain if we use an example.

As you can see, the trainer form is broken into two parts. The first half is fairly common or garden, standard intel, though not without its uses by any means. In fact, simply comparing a trainer's recent form with his or her longer-term course record is more than enough to add a point - or a knock - to a runner's credentials.

But the real power is in the second section, where users are presented with the trainer's two-year record in a variety of relevant scenarios. In this instance, we can see that Mick Appleby's general two-year figures are not especially exciting in the context of this race... with one very notable exception: horses having their first run for the yard. Edraak, on first start for Appleby, won by three lengths at 16/1.

This is the real power hidden under the bonnet of our trainer form icon, and you can harness it daily for yourself.

Pro Tip: Look for trainers whose performance in the specific context of today's race is better than their overall two-year record.

#3 Report Angles

If the first two of our 'top ten' under the radar racecard features are point and shoot, number three, Report Angles, offers you all the flexibility you could want. It works in two parts: first, you choose which of our suite of 15+ reports you are interested in, and on what basis; and second, qualifying runners appear as a red number against the horse in question.

Let's say you'd selected our brilliant Trainer Jockey Combination report as one of those you wanted to know about, but only when the combo had at least a 20% hit rate and an A/E (positive market expectation) of 1.5 or more in the past year.

Set that up in your Report Angles settings, along with any other parameters you're interested in:

Report Angles qualifiers appear in the racecard

Once defined, Report Angles qualifiers appear directly in the racecard

 

And bingo, there's a little red '1' against this horse. When I click on it, the specific Report Angle detail makes itself known.

This 'no name' trainer was running a horse with moderate form that was eventually sent off at 12/1. Although he didn't win on this occasion, he finished a fine second of 16, rewarding each way support. These are the kind of horses that most punters wouldn't look twice at; Report Angles forces us to give them a second glance.

Oh, and regarding the setting up bit, it's a one time five minute job which rewards that micro-effort over and over again.

Pro tip: Be selective! Less is more with Report Angles: that way, you know every highlighted horse is worth taking a moment to review.

 

Sign up today and get your first month for just £1 >>>

#4 Draw Tab

Flat races are anything but with Geegeez racecards, with our industry-leading draw information. Not only do we have more - more metrics, more configurability, more insight - but it's two-click easy to discover exactly what you want to know. Which part of the draw, if any, is favoured in big field mile handicaps at York?

Head straight to the draw tab and you'll see it pre-populated with going, field size and handicap races. In this example, I've also selected the 'Actual Draw' button to exclude non-runners' stalls.

There seems to be a fairly strong advantage for low drawn runners, and those drawn highest - and therefore widest - appear to be somewhat compromised by their stall position.

Sure enough, this 16-runner race was won by a horse drawn in stall 3 at an SP of 12/1. Nice.

As well as simple High/Middle/Low draw thirds, the draw tab also includes individual stall breakdowns in table and chart form.

And, as a further power feature, we overlay historical run style to draw thirds to show which combination of draw and early race position is optimal. It looks like this, displayed in very easy-to-digest colour code. We call it our heat map:

 

Pro Tip: We've included some more advanced metrics like A/E, IV and PRB (and derivatives of them). They're not as complicated as they perhaps sound and keeping them in mind will definitely add another level to your understanding of draw biases. You can read more on our metrics here.

#5 Pace Tab

"Pace wins the race", or so the adage goes. In fact, pace is a massive factor in determining the outcome of races and, in Britain and Ireland at least, remains significantly overlooked. This presents clued in bettors with one of the best - if not the best - opportunity to profit from betting on horseracing.

You may or may not be familiar with the pace tab within Gold racecards. It looks like the image below and I want to pick a few things out for you.

Firstly, check out the four coloured 'blobs' at the top. These show the performance of different run styles over this course and distance, and in this field size/on this going. If selected, the data are filtered for handicap runs only (as in this case).

In this example, it is clear that horses coming from the back of the field have an almost impossible task (held up runners are 1 from 107 !), and those racing midfield don't fare much better. Prominent racers and especially front-runners have virtually monopolised 5f handicaps at Kempton since the all-weather was laid.

Below the blobs and the going/field size/race selection variables, we have a pace prediction - 'possible contested speed'. There are also two more variables for users to select: number of previous runs to include, and display type. Here I've chosen last three runs and 'heat map'.

Because I've selected 'Heat Map' view, the display underlays colour to identify which parts of the track are favoured from a draw/pace perspective. Again, this is a pretty open and shut case with horses that lead or race prominently being favoured regardless of draw.

Being able to visualise how a race is likely to be run, and having the historical context, is hugely powerful in isolating those runners whose chance is improved or reduced by their run style.

Quite simply, I wouldn't bet without checking this first. And nor should you!

Pro Tip: Look for horses matching the historically favoured run style - especially when they might be 'uncontested leaders'.

#6 Full Form

Arguably the most under-rated aspect of the entire Geegeez Gold offering is Full Form, a place where it is possible to drill down on a horse's (or trainer's or sire's or jockey's) form to any number of form elements relevant to today's race.

Full Form is comprised of a series of content blocks, each one collapsible so you can keep your view neat and tidy if you're not interested in some components. In the example below, I've collapsed the Runner Details, Race Record and Race Entries blocks, leaving only what I'm interested in: the Filters and Race Form blocks.

In this, granted extreme, example Halling's Comet has a phenomenal record at Worcester (I've filtered by 'course') where he almost always leads.

 

I have also selected the 'Proximity Form' filter. When selected, a traffic light appears to the left of each form line, based on how far, per furlong, the horse was beaten. On the 14th August 2019, for instance, Halling's Comet was beaten 12 1/4 lengths over two and a half miles (20 furlongs). That averaged to 0.61 lengths per furlong and an amber traffic light.

This is very useful for understanding when horses may have run better (or worse) than their finishing position implies.

One final point to note on Full Form is that it is not just for horse form; by selecting Trainer or Jockey or Sire from the buttons top right, it is easy to drill down and establish how those actors performed against various form filters appropriate to today's contest.

Pro Tip: Experiment with the Filters. Discovering that a horse has won three times from four runs within 10 days, or for today's jockey, etc., can be very rewarding!

 

Sign up today and get your first month for just £1 >>>

#7 Sectional Data

One of the new frontiers of horseracing information in Britain in the last couple of years is the publication of sectional timing data. After a few false dawns down the years, this staple of international racing has begun to make its way into the form book here. The problem, like many things in racing, is that divisions in ownership and media have meant that the information is not available for all race tracks. At least not yet.

Geegeez publishes data from a company called Total Performance Data (TPD), and we've tried to make it as versatile as users could wish for. There is much more information on sectional timing data here, but I wanted to pick out a couple of aspects with which you may not be familiar.

To the untrained eye, there is a lot going on with a presentation of sectional timing. Those who like to get knee deep will find satisfaction in the Geegeez sectional content but, for most, a toehold into this new realm will be enough, so let's try to address that here.

The most generally-discussed metric is 'finishing speed percentage' and it tells us a lot about not just the finish but the race overall. We break the race into either five or three sections - the display below showing five - and each section is colour-coded red to blue.

The top colour row is the 'race speed', based on the leader throughout the race. In this case, the race leader was the same horse throughout, National Anthem. He went hard - very hard (see the orange/red) - early and finished commensurately slowly.

Compare his colour bars with second-placed Mabre, who ran almost an opposite race. Very slow at the start (15 lengths back after two furlongs!), he closed to within four lengths of the winner by the line.

National Anthem had a finishing speed of 88% which means he went very fast early; Mabre had a finishing speed of 96.6%, which means he ran a more measured race overall in spite of his slow start.

Below the colour bars for each runner is a sequence of numbers that we call 'running lines'. These five numbers, and their associated superscript, outline the race position and the distance behind the leader at different 'call points' during the race.

In the example race above, National Anthem was 1st, seven lengths clear, at the second call. We can see that the second race section, the end of which is the second 'call', was 5-4 (i.e. from the five furlong to the four furlong pole). So National Anthem was seven lengths clear at the four furlongs from home point.

Conversely, Mabre was 15 lengths sixth (of six) at the same point.

This is invaluable information for understanding how much ground a horse has made up during a race. Those who like their visuals might also have a look at the chart representation of this (from the 'Chart' button at the top).

In this chart image, I've highlighted the second horse, Mabre, by hovering over the 5-4 point on this 'behind leader' view. The winner led all the way and, therefore, is the red line at the bottom of the chart: he was 0 lengths behind the leader (because he was the leader!) throughout.

Sectional data is more in-depth than a lot of bettors wish to get, and if that's you, don't worry - there's plenty else to go at!

Pro Tip: Do not get too bogged down in sectional data if it's all new. But know that, if a race looks likely to be steadily/falsely run (our pace prediction will help here), a horse with fast finishing speed percentage figures will be of interest, all other things being equal.

#8 QT Angles

If you're one of those people who likes to ask, and find answers to, your own questions then our Query Tool is for you. Query Tool, or QT for short, allows users to build angles or systems from our extensive racing database. Crucially, it allows them to save those angles and have qualifying horses highlighted right within the racecard.

This information is unique to a user and means the card is your own, and as powerful/insightful as you want to make it.

The legwork is done elsewhere, within Query Tool; but once done users reap the benefit over and over again. There is much more information on Query Tool here.

Pro Tip: Some of our savviest subscribers use QT to identify positive factors, which are not necessarily profitable by themselves but contribute to the case to be made for a horse. Having a range of these Angles saved in QT - and displaying right in the racecard - is dynamite!

#9 Sire Data

If a horse has had thirty runs, the primary consideration is always its own form. But, when there is less racecourse evidence from which to base a judgement, the form of a trainer or a sire can be instructive. We've discussed trainer form already and now it is the turn of the sire.

Geegeez racecards have a sire icon behind which is a raft of facts and figures.

As well as the basic breeding line, Geegeez Gold racecards also publish latest sales information, and notable relatives. But the real insight comes from the two-year Sire Snippets (highlighted in the box). The top line is always the overall two year form of the sire's progeny, while subsequent rows relate to the specific context of the race in question.

In this example, where Little Jo was running in a mile handiap at Newcastle (all-weather), we can see the sire's (Major Cadeaux) form in all-weather races and in middle distance races flagged this one as a live contender. With form in the bank, too, he was hardly a shock winner at an eventual SP of 9/1.

This can be very helpful, especially for horses either running in maiden and novice races, or trying something different for the first (or second) time.

Pro Tip: Compare contextual snippets with a sire's overall two-year form (the top row) to see if his progeny fare better or worse in today's circumstances.

#10 Form Indicators

There is a huge amount of information available via the racecards, and some of us don't have either the time or the inclination to sift through all of it. That, of course, is absolutely fine - nobody uses everything - and the Gold cards have lots of shortcuts and indicators.

With our trainer and jockey indicators you can see at a glance who is hot and who is not. They reveal recent (14 and 30 day) form, and longer-term (course one year and five year) form. Green is good, red is not good.

Also notice the numbered arrows next to Vaziani and Steel Native. These relate that, respectively, Vaziani is dropping one class and Steel Native is up one class bracket.

Most other indicators (C = course winner, CD = course and distance winner, etc) are fairly standard, but notice how Gold racecards deploy a 5+ notation for horses wearing a piece of apparatus, or running after wind surgery, for a fifth or greater time. By the same token, a W3 notation, for instance, would imply a horse was running for the third time after wind surgery; and h2 would be a second start wearing a hood, and so on.

Horses making their first start in a handicap are flagged by 'HC1' next to their name (and they also have trainer snippets to help users understand the trainer's record with such runners).

And horses running for the first time since a change of stable have 'TC' (trainer change) against their name on the card:

Trainer_Change_Indicator

In each case, these indicators provide valuable time-saving shortcuts to help you understand more information quicker; and there is always more detail a click away for those who are curious or wish to drill down.

Pro Tip: Although the indicators offer a snapshot flavour of noteworthy elements, it is always advisable to make the extra click required to see the related data. Knowing a horse is making its handicap debut is interesting; knowing that the trainer has a 30% strike rate with such horses is very, very interesting!

**

And those are ten things which perhaps you didn't know about Geegeez Gold racecards.

But wait, there's more. Ten items just isn't enough to share all of the hidden gems lurking in our cards, and I simply cannot fail to mention these two more...

 

Sign up today and get your first month for just £1 >>>

#11 Bet Tracker

How is your betting going? Well? Okay? Not so good? Chances are you have a hunch as to the general direction of your wagering travel but the specifics are a little harder to come by. Many Geegeez users have not only grabbed their P&L by the scruff of the neck, but are also now starting to understand where they do well and where they do less well thanks to our Bet Tracker tool.

It works very simply: click the BT icon on the card and enter your bet details.

When the results are confirmed your bets will be settled within the Bet Tracker tool. After you've accrued a history in Bet Tracker you will be able to perform detailed analysis to see where you're doing best... and worst!

For those who take just a minute or two a day to add their bet details, it is turning their entire game around. It can do the same for you, too.

Pro Tip: Add all of your single bets to Bet Tracker. When you've got 100+ bets recorded, start to review for pointers. When you've got 500+ bets recorded, you'll be able to make some highly targeted changes to your betting approach: cut out what's not working, do more of what is.

#12 Price / Rate A Race

If you really want to test your value edge, try pricing a few races up yourself. Our 'My Ratings' feature allows users to add notes about a race during the pre-race form study period (we also have a separate horse / race / meeting notes and rating facility within the results).

Most people don't price up races in this way, but for those who do, their judgement of value is sure to be improved. And everyone should do this at least once or twice a month.

Pro Tip: From your My Geegeez profile page, you can opt to turn off bookmaker odds. Pricing a race 'blind' is a Jedi Master trick for testing your feel for the market. Don't be discouraged if early attempts miss the mark somewhat; after all, you wouldn't expect to learn Slovak in an afternoon!

****

So that's ten - sorry, twelve - things you perhaps didn't know you didn't know about Geegeez Racecards.

If you're not yet a Gold subscriber, you can put all of these - as well as our Query Tool, Draw and Pace Analysers, Stat of the Day picks, and so much more besides - to work for you. Sign up today and get your first month for just £1 >>>

Monday Musings: We’re On!

/in /by

So finally, after 76 days, 330 lost meetings and something of a cliff-hanger, the wait is officially over, writes Tony Stafford. Oliver Dowden, Minister for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, was in the saddle to announce the go-ahead at Saturday’s coronavirus briefing in Downing Street. Thus, unlike his government’s much-maligned advisor Dominic Cummings, Newmarket trainers and horses will legally have carte blanche to take the long road north to Newcastle.

With ten races both on Monday and Tuesday at Gosforth Park, all limited to maximum fields of 12, it might have been expected that there would be an imbalance of runners from HQ. In the event, while there are Newmarket-trained representatives in most (eight) races on Monday and all ten on Tuesday, the total is a fairly modest 22 on the opening day and only 15 on the second, which must have been a relief for many trainers and owners in the north.

Kempton on Tuesday predictably has a southern bias, but it will not be until today Monday’s 72-hour declarations for the first of four days at Newmarket that the skilful hand of the BHA will be properly shown. The first four of seven races are all restricted to two-year-olds and, with the same limitation of 12 runners per race as elsewhere, three of the four can be divided. That means we will have seven races for juveniles, helping to make a start to redressing a few of the forfeited opportunities in the void of April and May.

Smaller fields and racing behind closed doors will enable the continued practising of social distancing rules. With the last week also (thanks principally to a big drop on the Tuesday after the latest Bank Holiday) contributing another approximate 20 per cent fall in the number of UK deaths (on my figures a 21.4% decline and 1696 deaths), the government felt able to counter some northern politicians who wanted a further delay. Even more compelling is the continued reduction in the weekly numbers in hospital suffering from the disease, down 15% on the week.

Dowden clearly believes that horse racing will be an important potential agent for renewed public confidence after the shock and denial of entertainment of the past 11 weeks. Even better news for the man in the street, not that he’s been anywhere in sight of late, is the prospect of re-opened betting shops on Royal Ascot eve, Monday June 15. Just as it was deemed possible to regulate customer-flow in supermarkets at the height of public hysteria and fear about Covid-19 - which would have been fine apart from many customers’ refusal to comply with the two-metre apart arrows - then it should be easy enough to allow the smaller volume of people wishing to enter betting shops to do so in an orderly and safe fashion.

With top professional football also resuming that week, couch potatoes will be in their element. However it’s the four days of Newmarket that excite me with last year’s Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck, heading a possible team of three from Ballydoyle in the Hurworth Bloodstock Coronation Cup, transferred from Epsom. Broome and Sir Dragonet can bolster the Aidan O’Brien team and the Irish maestro is reportedly taking a short lease on a property in the town to accommodate his staff in what will be something of a satellite operation with 14-day isolation rules in place while the horses can fly back and forth as needed.

Two other highly-interesting names are included in the 11-horse entry, with Stradivarius, champion stayer for the past two years, dropping back to a mile and a half, and Godolphin’s Ghaiyyath, who would have been one of the obvious favourites had the Dubai World Cup meeting gone ahead as planned, representing Charlie Appleby. Ghaiyyath has the advantage of a run this year, winning a Meydan Group 3 by eight lengths in late February.

At five, so a year younger than Stradivarius, he is lightly-raced with six wins in nine starts, but critics will point to his flop when only tenth of 12 in last autumn’s Arc behind Waldgeist and Enable. So far he has yet to click on the biggest days but his official mark of 126 clearly indicates what a classy performer he is.

Later today, the acceptors will be known for the 2000 Guineas but also today the French maintain their edge of getting going first of the three major European racing powers with both Guineas mile Classics, transferred to Deauville from Longchamp. That latter track was summarily, but probably only temporarily, closed after an initial flurry three weeks ago.

Many of the big trainers are based near or in Chantilly, which was previously also in the same proscribed Red Zone as Paris proper, but they will have been relieved that Chantilly has now been given the all-clear so meetings there and at nearby Compiegne can resume from this week. One obvious exception is Jean-Claude Rouget who trains in the west, so within easy reach of Deauville. Rouget and Andre Fabre both have fancied runners in each race, but I expect Ecrivain, second while not getting a clear run in the trial (Fontainebleau) three weeks again, to beat both in the “2000” for the Carlos Laffon-Parias stable.

As with the Coronation Cup, Appleby and O’Brien will be going head to head on Saturday in the 2000 Guineas, but five-day confirmations will not be known until after these words are published on Monday morning. Pinatubo has been favourite, and a short-priced one throughout the winter and the subsequent period of no racing, and remains odds-on to confirm his superiority over Coolmore’s Arizona, whom he beat by two lengths in the Dewhurst Stakes last October.

While confidence abounds in the favourite, word from Ireland suggests that O’Brien, already winner of the Newmarket colts’ Classic ten times, could not be happier with Arizona’s progress, so an each-way bet at the prevailing 6-1 could be a value bet-to-nothing, possibly with a small saver to be second to the favourite as insurance.

Ryan Moore has had his moments of misfortune as well as success in the 2000 Guineas in the past decade, winning on Churchill and Gleneagles, but having to watch from Churchill Downs two years ago while Donnacha O’Brien collected on Saxon Warrior before his own unfortunate ride on Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby. Last May he looked across from the middle of track on the non-staying favourite Ten Sovereigns as stable-mate Magna Grecia, again with the younger O’Brien son riding, swept to victory up the stands rail.

Ryan’s international pursuit of big prizes has often extended across to Japan and as recently as last November he teamed up with the two-year-old Contrail to win a Group 3 race in Tokyo. The colt won two more important races without Ryan, the Group 1 Hopeful last backend and the Japanese 2000 Guineas (Satsuki Sho) this spring. Both races were over ten furlongs and Yuichi Fukanaga had the mount each time. Contrail won the Guineas by half a length when the runner-up was Salios.

I’m sure that without those quarantine rules, Ryan would have been seeking out connections to try to get back on Contrail in yesterday’s Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) for which he was the 2-5 favourite in a field of 16 over the mile and a half trip. Salios again proved to be his main challenger but this time the victory margin was three lengths as the winner, a son of star stallion Deep Impact, took home the first prize of more than £1.5 million.

No doubt Moore will be fully aware of the missed jockey’s share, but will hope he can pick up some compensation nearer home. Already O’Brien has intimated that the jockey will not be going across to The Curragh for the following weekend’s Guineas double. As to Contrail he seems to be following hard on the example of the brilliant filly Almond Eye as another potential Japanese star set to take on the world’s best in the coming months.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2020

/in /by

Tuesday March 24th's pick was...

5.00 Clonmel : Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 7f out, improved to dispute lead 3f out, ridden entering straight, headed 2f out, dropped to moderate 5th 1f out, no impression) Thankfully, I don't need to rely on Irish racing any longer : definitely a failed experiment.

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Standard to Slow Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding whose modest career record to date of just 2 wins and 7 places from 24 starts might not make him an obvious candidate, but I'm happy to discard his failure to win any of his 13 attempts on turf to focus on an All-Weather record at 2 wins and 3 places from 11 starts that is further inmproved to 2 wins, 3 further places from 8 here at Newcastle.

A 62.5% overall place strike rate including a 25% win record on one track is certainly of more appeal and all 8 runs were in handicaps for trainer Jim Goldie and they also include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and another place from 5 when sent off as favourite, as seems likely today
  • 2 wins from 3 starts in 12-runner contests
  • and one win from two when ridden by today's jockey, Daniel Tudhope...

...who himself had a brilliant time of it here last year winning 19 of 78 (24.4% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 23.9pts at Betfair SP, the equivalent of a 30.7% return on stakes invested, from which he was...

  • 13 from 56 (23.2%) for 20.2pts (+36%) in handicaps
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.22pts (+22.2%) over this 5f course and distance
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 23.3pts (+388.6%) for trainer Jim Goldie.

That performance for today's trainer was no short term flash in the pan either as today the Goldie/Tudhope combo has 7 winners from 16 her at Newcastle since the start of 2017 with the resultant 43.75% strike rate generating 28.5pts profit at an ROI of 177.9% and this includes..

  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.1pts (+107.1%) in handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.2pts (+70%) over this 5f course and distance (all in handicaps)...

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Racing is Back! 1st June Video Preview

/in , /by

Racing is back! My, how we've missed it. And, to celebrate its return, as well as the return of plenty of subscribers old and new, I've recorded a video preview of the opening contest.

Regardless of how long you've been a Gold subscriber - perhaps you're still not - I hope you'll find some value in the video, which is designed to highlight a process rather than a tip... though as you'll discover I found a few reasons to like a 20/1 shot!

In the video I refer to a post talking about our metrics, which you can find here.

And here's a quick link to the Newcastle Punting Pointers article.

And, finally, if you're not a Gold subscriber, here's the link to sign up. Get your first month for just £1.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1